tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 1039
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June 28th, 2021 at 10:56:04 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Smarter people than you or me tuttigym have figured the math of the game. Why are you trying to change the math?

The math is the math. Your results may be different. But that doesn't mean the math is wrong.

Mr. Mendelson: I am not trying to "change" the math. I am expanding the "math" probabilities.

Consider those folks who are new, or uninformed, or worse yet gullible. Their thought processes might be working or telling their brain: "Mr. Mendelson continues to say craps is a negative expectation game, and no matter what, I am going to lose. I get that, but I am going to lose less than 1.5% of my bankroll during all of my play because the HA on PL bets is only 1.41% AND there is NO HA on the free odds bet tied in. So, I can buy-in for \$200 at that \$10 table over there, play the PL + free odds for hours, and maybe only lose a few dollars unless I get really lucky and defeat that really small 1.41% HA."

Those gullible folks and the newbies you are talking to, are giving you their blind allegiance and faith because you refuse to expand the truth of the expected losses associated the PL + free odds wagering. You need to deal with the whole truth and set your ego aside.

tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 1039
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:15:11 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Cancellation betting is the biggest problem here.

Mr. Dieter: If the PL bet is soooo great that it should not be "cancelled" by players such as myself, then why do the vast vast majority of players bet the table MINIMUM? What is it that makes one believe that on a \$5 table that miniscule \$5 opening bet is going to make some kind of difference?? Is one to believe that the player should bet \$25 or \$50 on the PL on a \$5 table? Would you play that way?

Quote: Dieter

You came to gamble, right?

I do, and I get one side or two sides or a third choice which is a combination of both. For me, it is empowering.

tuttigym.
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 1039
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:27:46 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

First of all, thank you for the non-quoted compliment at the end of your post.

You are welcome. I want to acknowledge your self-degradation, creativity, and LOL sense of humor you posted on other threads. Those multiple self descriptions are hilarious.

Quote: Mission146

My simple answer to this question is because the antithesis of the proposition is true for the Don't Pass bet, which is why you look at the total expected value and probabilities as of the time that the bet is made. The House does mandate that the PL bet stay up after a point is established, and similarly, a player SHOULD, "Mandate," that a DP bet stays up at the time the point is established.

For me, playing the Doey/Don't allows me to disregard that "Mandate."

Quote: Mission 146

Anyway, if you're suggesting that I should acknowledge that---say a five having been established---that a seven is more likely to come than another five, then all I can say is, "Acknowledged as obvious."

Thank you for that.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:38:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

That's certainly rude. I thought we weren't judging what people do with their own time and money, here?

I did not mean to be rude or snarky with those comments, and if they were taken that way, I apologize. I meant it as a compliment to be committed to the game for such a long session with the documented results. I personally could never do it.

Quote: Mission 146

I like to play UTH on WoO with a buy-in of \$0 real money and \$5,000 virtual dollars. It's a fun game, and if I ever get the, 'Urge,' to play a table game in a live casino, then it would probably be that one again...so I want to have strategy pretty much down cold.

UTH?? I do the same with his virtual craps game. The only bets I miss in his simulation are hop bets, otherwise the practice is good, but after a time can be figured out and beaten often. I miss the real randomness. Can't have everything I guess, but free is great.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:49:04 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

The events of the future are never real until they happen. "Expected Value" is just the chatter of dusty intellects; it is nothing more than mathematicians j**king off into a Kleenex.

The true expectation is really a probability distribution around the so-called 'Expected Value.' Because we don't really expect that you'll get the expected value. So. Welcome to Wonderland.

Mr. Gordon888: Do not tell Mr. Mendelson that, and thank you. I wish I had said the above. It is beyond profound, and I will steal that sentiment and use it often.

tuttigym
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:50:35 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

If the PL bet is soooo great that it should not be "cancelled" by players such as myself

(clipped)

You're cancelling your chance of winning.
You're not cancelling the house's chance of winning.

You can make other bets, of course. Maybe one of those will win.

Cancellation betting may keep you in the game, but I doubt that paying your wins with chips you just lost is a prudent way to play.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
• Posts: 5028
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June 28th, 2021 at 12:04:37 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. Mendelson: I am not trying to "change" the math. I am expanding the "math" probabilities.

Consider those folks who are new, or uninformed, or worse yet gullible. Their thought processes might be working or telling their brain: "Mr. Mendelson continues to say craps is a negative expectation game, and no matter what, I am going to lose. I get that, but I am going to lose less than 1.5% of my bankroll during all of my play because the HA on PL bets is only 1.41% AND there is NO HA on the free odds bet tied in. So, I can buy-in for \$200 at that \$10 table over there, play the PL + free odds for hours, and maybe only lose a few dollars unless I get really lucky and defeat that really small 1.41% HA."

Those gullible folks and the newbies you are talking to, are giving you their blind allegiance and faith because you refuse to expand the truth of the expected losses associated the PL + free odds wagering. You need to deal with the whole truth and set your ego aside.

tuttigym

Wow. Are you saying that the general public thinks "expected return" is a law and a guarantee?
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 1039
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June 28th, 2021 at 2:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Wow. Are you saying that the general public thinks "expected return" is a law and a guarantee?

The general public believes that the democrats never lie. They have believed that "climate change, i.e., global warming was going to destroy the planet in a 10 year period of time since the mid '80's. They believe that there is "systemic racism" in every corner of the country. They believe The New York Times editorial page. They believe that there is NO southern border crisis. The "general public" is uninformed, gullible, and susceptible to the loudest voices making the greatest amount of noise. They believe our kids are educated and have the highest of critical thinking skills. All in all, they believe in the cancel culture, BLM, and the 1.41 HA on PL bets because that is all that is out there.

tuttigym
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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June 28th, 2021 at 2:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The general public believes that the democrats never lie. They have believed that "climate change, i.e., global warming was going to destroy the planet in a 10 year period of time since the mid '80's. They believe that there is "systemic racism" in every corner of the country. They believe The New York Times editorial page. They believe that there is NO southern border crisis. The "general public" is uninformed, gullible, and susceptible to the loudest voices making the greatest amount of noise. They believe our kids are educated and have the highest of critical thinking skills. All in all, they believe in the cancel culture, BLM, and the 1.41 HA on PL bets because that is all that is out there.

Political statement. Three-day suspension.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
daveyandersen1
Joined: Mar 27, 2015