tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:50:53 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Then you cannot challenge the math of the game. Craps is negative expectation. Deal with it.

Mr. Mendelson, I can challenge anything. Your inability to come to terms with the point cycle's inflated negative HA is disappointing. Are those not a "negative expectations"? You just somehow can't deal with the truth offered in a format that you wish to ignore. Deal with that.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:52:23 PM permalink
If he's asking what the HA on a put bet is without the odds, because every answer I can find in 5 minutes adds odds of 5X or 10X or 20X.

I'm gonna refigure. 24 ways to win plus 36 ways to lose out of 60 bets. 60 x \$10 bets = \$600 bet, I win 24 x \$10 = \$240 plus \$240 of my original wager returned = \$480 of my \$600 for a \$120 loss. -\$120/\$600 = 20% HA.

Since I can't move my PL bet around after the come-out, checking for the HA on individual points is meaningless. You want an overall HA on all the points if they were put bets put there by the dice on the come-out with no benefit of the 7-11, and it's 20%.

Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 27, 2021
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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June 27th, 2021 at 9:21:11 PM permalink
Smarter people than you or me tuttigym have figured the math of the game. Why are you trying to change the math?

The math is the math. Your results may be different. But that doesn't mean the math is wrong.

The point of four according to the math should win one out of three times. You might win the point of 4 more times or fewer times. That doesn't mean the math that says the point of four will win one out of three times is wrong.

If you think the point of four as defined by the math is not expected to win one out of three times what do you believe the correct value is and WHY?
Dieter

Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 2018
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June 27th, 2021 at 9:47:02 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I use the Doey/Don't so my wagering depends on the point established, how the table is playing, and, get ready to pounce, my gut feeling.

Cancellation betting is the biggest problem here.

The house still takes a bite; they have structured the wagers so that you'll usually push, except for the rare instance you lose.

You came to gamble, right?
May the cards fall in your favor.
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 14626
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June 28th, 2021 at 4:58:15 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

One cannot just shrug off the most VALID question of this discussion by saying nothing changes regarding the PL bet after the point is established. That bet is the 800 lb. gorilla in the room; the albatross around the player's neck, the absolute reason "THE math" surrounding the 1.41% HA is NOT reality. The House mandates that the PL bet must stay on the table knowing that winning for the player has flipped big time in favor of the house. "Does not change."? Everything changes and by dismissing the question and the real answers is a disservice. Why not acknowledge the, in any discussion of the PL HA, the real pitfalls of the bet so that the uninitiated might be fully informed, which is your stated mission?

(Quote clipped, relevance)

First of all, thank you for the non-quoted compliment at the end of your post.

My simple answer to this question is because the antithesis of the proposition is true for the Don't Pass bet, which is why you look at the total expected value and probabilities as of the time that the bet is made. The House does mandate that the PL bet stay up after a point is established, and similarly, a player SHOULD, "Mandate," that a DP bet stays up at the time the point is established.

Anyway, if you're suggesting that I should acknowledge that---say a five having been established---that a seven is more likely to come than another five, then all I can say is, "Acknowledged as obvious."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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June 28th, 2021 at 5:01:23 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You definitely have too much time on your hands. How do you deal with the boredom? 22 cents, wow, did you report that to the IRS or will you wait for the casino to send you a 1099?

(Quote clipped, relevance)

That's certainly rude. I thought we weren't judging what people do with their own time and money, here?

I like to play UTH on WoO with a buy-in of \$0 real money and \$5,000 virtual dollars. It's a fun game, and if I ever get the, 'Urge,' to play a table game in a live casino, then it would probably be that one again...so I want to have strategy pretty much down cold.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 14626
June 28th, 2021 at 5:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

MrV: Are you a proponent of "controlling" and dice "influencing"? How is that going for you?

A short anecdote for you:

Several years ago, I was a participant on the Scoblete forum. Those folks tried to convince me to take their classes and "learn" the "techniques". I was positive it was a sham and told them so. There came a time when a group of about 12 or so "controllers" had a get together in Biloxi, and they were nice enough to have me join them. I did. These guys were serious about the "skill" and most all practiced religiously on their own tables at home spending hours and hundreds of practice tosses daily.

That first night we all met at the table. The results were stunning. Each player had their turn with the dice twice during that session. Only one of the 24 turns had a roll of more than one point conversion. The rest had a 7 out within 7 tosses after their point was established. Only one shooter converted three points and had a significant hand of about 21 throws. Their collective disappointment was heavy. But they were resilient and remained upbeat. A really great group and, ultimately for me, a wonderful memory of a friendly gathering.

I left the next day, so I can't tell you of their results,

So MrV, I am NOT blind; I am just not convinced that "controlling" works to any degree better than just shaking them up and tossing them down the felt aand hitting that back titted wall.

tuttigym

With a low enough minimum, I'd roll those bones with Scoblete anytime. I don't think I'd learn how to play a winning game of Craps, but the company would be well worth the expected loss. Really smart and witty dude.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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June 28th, 2021 at 5:10:06 AM permalink
Tutti…. There is no one here who is telling you not to go to the casino and have fun with your system. There is no one telling you that you may not get lucky and actually win that day.

The kind members have been trying to explain to you concepts like house edge and variance, probably not enough about variance, so that you have an idea of likely outcomes for you.

I play craps quite infrequently. I am up over my lifetime SOLELY due to some ridiculous good luck. But I won’t try and make it seem like I had some system that I could ever expect to repeat.

A few of your posts you mention you want to go have entertainment at the casino. Stop arguing with the forum and just go have fun. Go win or lose a few hundred \$\$.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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June 28th, 2021 at 6:04:33 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.

Quote: tuttigym

Oh! So nothing is real. OK, I get it now.

The events of the future are never real until they happen. "Expected Value" is just the chatter of dusty intellects; it is nothing more than mathematicians j**king off into a Kleenex.

The true expectation is really a probability distribution around the so-called 'Expected Value.' Because we don't really expect that you'll get the expected value. So. Welcome to Wonderland.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 600
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June 28th, 2021 at 10:29:21 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If he's asking what the HA on a put bet is without the odds

I do not know who "he" is. I am not discussing "put" bets or whatever that relationship is to HA.

Quote: ChumpChange