ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 12:42:25 PM permalink
Get back to me after you roll a 12 on the come-out 20 times with your $10 pass line bet. That would be an HA of $100, and you lost another $100 in the process.
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 12:53:08 PM permalink
There is no grief only lots of fun. Like many critics, Mr. Mendelson, dodging specific questions, when confronted with reality should give others pause to ones credibility.

Gambling, for me, is a recreational diversion, a hobby if you will. Knock on wood, my health is good, my mobility is good, my mind and intellect are competent, and my sense of humor allows me to enjoy my years without taking myself too seriously.

I could only wish that your life is as rich and fulfilling as mine was and is.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:01:25 PM permalink
Mr. Chump c: Why would I do that? That is not reality. You would not do that nor would any "competent' thinking player. Provide a real, usable example if you can.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:04:58 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Get back to me after you roll a 12 on the come-out 20 times with your $10 pass line bet. That would be an HA of $100, and you lost another $100 in the process.



Why would I do that? It is not reality.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:06:18 PM permalink
The HA will reduce your potential winnings and increase your potential losses by an amount certain. What your actual winnings or losses are are unknown, but the HA is always there and growing.

If we go back to that WinCraps report I wrote about earlier but neglected to mention, the HA on the pass line was -$632.10 and my net win on the pass line was $780. So WinCraps will effortlessly calculate the HA for me down to 1.4141%. There was no HA on the triple odds bets, and my net odds bets wins were more than 10X my pass line bet wins. If there was no HA on the pass line, I would have nearly doubled what I won on the pass line bets.
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:27:55 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The HA will reduce your potential winnings and increase your potential losses by an amount certain. What your actual winnings or losses are are unknown, but the HA is always there and growing.


So what I acknowledged before IS CORRECT. Leaving the table a winner gives the player a plus multiplier over the HA or HE.

Quote: ChumpChange

If we go back to that WinCraps report I wrote about earlier but neglected to mention, the HA on the pass line was -$632.10 and my net win on the pass line was $780. So WinCraps will effortlessly calculate the HA for me down to 1.4141%. There was no HA on the triple odds bets, and my net odds bets wins were more than 10X my pass line bet wins. If there was no HA on the pass line, I would have nearly doubled what I won on the pass line bets.



Repeating your simulation does not make it real. Unless you personally would buy-in at whatever amount to reach those monetary wagering goals at the table at a real session and followed the exact betting system in your simulation, you cannot possibly know for certain the accuracy of the results above because REAL craps played in the casino is RANDOM, and computer simulations CANNOT do random.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:40:51 PM permalink
I can't keep arguing like I do, but I said early in this thread you are an HA denier, and no amount of math will work for you.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 1:51:17 PM permalink
Tuttigym you talk about the reality of craps. So here's the reality of craps.

Craps is a negative expectation game. The more you play the more you are expected to lose.

No betting formula or scheme will make craps a positive expectation game.

Every hedge bet only adds to the likelihood that the house will win. Even if you hedge a final bet in Bonus craps or the Firebet you are giving the house more of your money as you can't win both the hedge and the final bet.

The free odds are paid at true odds but are linked to the odds of winning the point. Hence free odds is a misnomer; they aren't free at all. But the odds bet is paid at true odds, even if they are at a disadvantage of winning.

You will not change these truths no matter how you bet. Your only chance to win at craps is to be able to throw the dice to improve the chance that favorable numbers will appear. Betting strategies and schemes will fail.

Deal with it.
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 2:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I can't keep arguing like I do, but I said early in this thread you are an HA denier, and no amount of math will work for you.


I am NOT a HA denier. I have stated many times in several ways that the house always, with one exception in craps, has the advantage and edge. I do not "argue." What I do not accept is a math narrative widely acclaimed as gospel that "THE math" is reality, because it has never been done.

Computer simulations have been programed to reflect that "math" to the exclusion of what is random and variable which is exhibited in real time at any given gambling venue.

When I go to the table to play, my expectation is that I will win not because I don't believe the house consistently has advantages over any given bet, but that the real math of 30 ways to win over only six ways to lose gives me a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice after the point is established. That one concept allows me to disregard the "establishment's" unreal HA depiction.

"Establishment" players always seem to project everything negative. They have stifled and constricted their approach to the game, and they stress out, like here in this forum, when anyone goes against the grain and intellectually pushes back.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym 
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 2:29:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.



Mr. Mendelson: When you see your children or grand children continually making similar mistakes, do you impart that same kind of wisdom and tell them to just give up and go away?
Does your frustration always result in such negativity and rejection?
Very sad and disappointing.

tuttigym

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