Craps Team play comps
Offsetting systems don't work ... the bets offered by the game all have negative expectation. When you look at the EV* of bet combinations, the total EV equals the sum of the EV of each bet. Thus no matter how you devise your bet combinations, you keep adding to the sum [the sum of adding negative amount + negative amount]Quote: Topkat10Thank you, is there a offsetting system you can think of that would achieve close to zero loss, with a partner ?
*EV = expected value
Quote: odiousgambitOffsetting systems don't work ... the bets offered by the game all have negative expectation. When you look at the EV* of bet combinations, the total EV equals the sum of the EV of each bet. Thus no matter how you devise your bet combinations, you keep adding to the sum [the sum of adding negative amount + negative amount]
*EV = expected value
Sure but it reduces variance.
EDIT: my links are broken because I'm a new member, but you can verify this information with some simple searching.
This. I’ll be surprised is this plan works.Quote: FCBLComishI hope you factored in that the Floor Supervisors will see your do-don't play (they can figure out that the 2 players are a partnership) and may decrease the value of your rating accordingly.
As a data point, I was in Atlantis a few months ago. Playing $25 or $50 PL and either 3 comes or across for $260/280. Plus black chip BJ. Rated for probably 12-15 hours over 4 days. Ended up getting all charges other than prepaid room comped. Since, have gotten offers for free 4 night stay at Cove.
(It was a lot of charges comped, was there with family and other families and paid for a lot of dinners and dolphin activities, etc. Was told by host they couldn’t comp the prepaid room as it was over a holiday. Not sure if that’s a real policy or not.)
Quote: unJonThis. I’ll be surprised is this plan works.
As a data point, I was in Atlantis a few months ago. Playing $25 or $50 PL and either 3 comes or across for $260/280. Plus black chip BJ. Rated for probably 12-15 hours over 4 days. Ended up getting all charges other than prepaid room comped. Since, have gotten offers for free 4 night stay at Cove.
(It was a lot of charges comped, was there with family and other families and paid for a lot of dinners and dolphin activities, etc. Was told by host they couldn’t comp the prepaid room as it was over a holiday. Not sure if that’s a real policy or not.)
If you book a room from an outside site like Expedia.com, you will not be able to get it comped. Always book directly with the hotel and then at the end of your trip, you have a chance of having all or some of the room picked up.
I always say you want variance, but I'll concede the variance can be too high to suit me as well. But there are better ways to reduce variance than hedging. And see below.Quote: unJonQuote: odiousgambitOffsetting systems don't work ... the bets offered by the game all have negative expectation. When you look at the EV* of bet combinations, the total EV equals the sum of the EV of each bet. Thus no matter how you devise your bet combinations, you keep adding to the sum [the sum of adding negative amount + negative amount]
*EV = expected value
Sure but it reduces variance.
This is a danger if you play the doey-don't you-yourself only, but it has to be of minimal concern if you are careful at all. A bigger point to make is that there is absolutely no reason for the pit to care if you are hedging your bets or not, not even when it comes to comps. You are earning those comps, in full for the amounts bet, when you hedge just as much as when you don't hedge.Quote: FCBLComishI hope you factored in that the Floor Supervisors will see your do-don't play (they can figure out that the 2 players are a partnership) and may decrease the value of your rating accordingly.
As far as comps go, I can't speak to what you might get, but it would be the same if you both played right side or dark side. It is possible to be overcomped, so if this is in the cards you might argue that this is when hedging pays off. I might agree if you are overcomped to the degree you are actually money ahead in freeplay.
Quote: FCBLComishI hope you factored in that the Floor Supervisors will see your do-don't play (they can figure out that the 2 players are a partnership) and may decrease the value of your rating accordingly.
This is a possibility, but the pass/don't pass bets both have a house edge so the house can still win "in the long run" just as it would if the two bettors did not know each other. The odds bets have no house advantage and might not be rated at all, depending on the casino.
Is there a way at that casino to "test the waters" for one period of time and then asking some questions?
Quote: FCBLComishI hope you factored in that the Floor Supervisors will see your do-don't play (they can figure out that the 2 players are a partnership) and may decrease the value of your rating accordingly.
Then that floor supervisor is an idiot. The do-don't players are guaranteeing the casino a win. Not only that, it is quite easy to figure out the 'theoretical loss' for those players. Moreso than a 'regular' player who varies his bets. And thus comp MORE accurately.
Do they come at all based on odds bets? (They shouldn’t)
They don’t per my discussions with them. I also think it’s a mistake to not have his son rated. He’s losing half the comps for the don’t play. In my one experience, they are good about calculating comps and there is a casino service station on the floor with a computer and they look you up and tell you how many comps dollars you earned.Quote: FinsRuleNot sure if playing odds makes sense to achieve what you want it to.
Do they come at all based on odds bets? (They shouldn’t)
Quote: unJonThey don’t per my discussions with them. I also think it’s a mistake to not have his son rated. He’s losing half the comps for the don’t play. In my one experience, they are good about calculating comps and there is a casino service station on the floor with a computer and they look you up and tell you how many comps dollars you earned.
I can definitely see the issue with one playing pass for $100, one playing dp. No odds. Same last name.
The casino should frown upon giving big comps for that.
Quote: FinsRuleI can definitely see the issue with one playing pass for $100, one playing dp. No odds. Same last name.
The casino should frown upon giving big comps for that.
Why should they frown on giving big comps for their play?
They are both playing bets with a house edge. Playing both of them, either alone or with someone else, does not change the house edge for each bet.
Quote: RonCWhy should they frown on giving big comps for their play?
They are both playing bets with a house edge. Playing both of them, either alone or with someone else, does not change the house edge for each bet.
Then their comps are too high.
It’s about a $30 per hour loss each. So if they play 4 hours each, casino should give them about $40-$50 in comps.
Not sure if it matters, but wizard does agree with me on this one.
Quote: FinsRuleThen their comps are too high.
It’s about a $30 per hour loss each. So if they play 4 hours each, casino should give them about $40-$50 in comps.
Not sure if it matters, but wizard does agree with me on this one.
I think it would take a lot of hours to get "big comps" at the level of play mentioned if odds are not rated.
It isn't that I don't think it is possible that they will reduce the comps, but I don't see why they would do it. Boymimbo mentioned in one thread the house edge being halfway between the two individual ones for this betting pattern.
Of course, casinos pretty much do whatever they want with comp values...
They also consider card counting cheating and taking free offers with minimal play cheating so take the above statement with a grain of salt
The best thing to do is kind of offset the offset. I found they arent smart enough to figure that one out
In Roulette for example I was able to fool the live dealer and pitbosses by having player A wager one large bet outside low thirds while player B wagered outside upper half and inside the 6 numbers and zero
Naturally everything worked out in the wagering so I had zero variance. They wont sit there counting the complicated math of that setup in my experience
Quote: Topkat10Like that even better I would consider that over craps as roulette comps certainly are higher , I have played roulette before can you just give me a wider explanation , and that is with a single zero wheel ??
You can do single or double. You lose 2x as fast doing double but some places rate you 2x in consideration
Quote: RonCThis is a possibility, but the pass/don't pass bets both have a house edge so the house can still win "in the long run" just as it would if the two bettors did not know each other. The odds bets have no house advantage and might not be rated at all, depending on the casino.
Is there a way at that casino to "test the waters" for one period of time and then asking some questions?
Pass/Don't Pass carries a fairly low house edge (1.41%). If you are earning more in comps than the house has in theoretical win, they will cut you off Try doing this on roulette with a 5.25% edge. The casino won't care.
There is actually an AP play that I see all the time that is based on this, but if I spill it, I am sure all the APs on this board will be mad. I may or may not spill it by PM. Depends on who is asking.
Quote: FinsRuleThen their comps are too high.
It’s about a $30 per hour loss each. So if they play 4 hours each, casino should give them about $40-$50 in comps.
Not sure if it matters, but wizard does agree with me on this one.
Hmmm.. .Assuming I agree with your theoretical win of $30 each, then we have $240 of theoretical. That would get you $24 from many places. $12 each. I do not think many places are giving close to 25% of theo on craps.
Quote: FCBLComishHmmm.. .Assuming I agree with your theoretical win of $30 each, then we have $240 of theoretical. That would get you $24 from many places. $12 each. I do not think many places are giving close to 25% of theo on craps.
I guess should was defined poorly. I think 25% should be the comp rate. Not saying it is.
Quote: FCBLComishIf you book a room from an outside site like Expedia.com, you will not be able to get it comped. Always book directly with the hotel and then at the end of your trip, you have a chance of having all or some of the room picked up.
Correct. Booking with anyone besides the operator means that the operator has already contracted at a certain rate which is money that they can't recover.
Quote: RonCThis is a possibility, but the pass/don't pass bets both have a house edge so the house can still win "in the long run" just as it would if the two bettors did not know each other. The odds bets have no house advantage and might not be rated at all, depending on the casino.
Is there a way at that casino to "test the waters" for one period of time and then asking some questions?
I challenge that assertion. If you play doey/don't you will always lose every time a 12 is rolled and break even the rest of the time.
You'll need to play black to get that kind of comp, in which case you are going to lose $100 every time a 12 is rolled on a come out. Given about 18 come out rolls per hour you would lose in average about $50. Of course the variance on that is extremely high. Over 16 hours you would be looking at 288 come out rolls and 8 losses on the 12. There's a 10.9% probability that you could see 12 or more 12s during that time. And I'm not even factoring in the variance of the number of come outs.
I guess the question is whether that variance and the guaranteed loss is worth it for the free nights. It's not particularly good for the soul to know that you are going to lose a bunch of money and time and hope that the CZR gods find it appropriate to gift you a room. That in itself is a questionable gamble.
Bacarrat is another game where you play player/banker offsetting with alot more decisions quicker with a much lower HE than single zero BJ. And it's fairly mindless. It's probably the best way to get your comps via the offsetting route.
Quote: RonCI think it would take a lot of hours to get "big comps" at the level of play mentioned if odds are not rated.
It isn't that I don't think it is possible that they will reduce the comps, but I don't see why they would do it. Boymimbo mentioned in one thread the house edge being halfway between the two individual ones for this betting pattern.
Of course, casinos pretty much do whatever they want with comp values...
And there are plenty of threads about CZR being very stingy on their awarding of TCs/comps at table games (something like 2% of theo for blackjack). CZR was known for being good at giving future offers via mailers. That gives them the control of being able to reward rooms during low season.
Quote: boymimboI challenge that assertion. If you play doey/don't you will always lose every time a 12 is rolled and break even the rest of the time.
You'll need to play black to get that kind of comp, in which case you are going to lose $100 every time a 12 is rolled on a come out. Given about 18 come out rolls per hour you would lose in average about $50. Of course the variance on that is extremely high. Over 16 hours you would be looking at 288 come out rolls and 8 losses on the 12. There's a 10.9% probability that you could see 12 or more 12s during that time. And I'm not even factoring in the variance of the number of come outs.
I guess the question is whether that variance and the guaranteed loss is worth it for the free nights. It's not particularly good for the soul to know that you are going to lose a bunch of money and time and hope that the CZR gods find it appropriate to gift you a room. That in itself is a questionable gamble.
Bacarrat is another game where you play player/banker offsetting with alot more decisions quicker with a much lower HE than single zero BJ. And it's fairly mindless. It's probably the best way to get your comps via the offsetting route.
It might be worth it if done at e-craps
Cet properties that have e-craps I have seen its $200 per players point (compared to $5 at slots and $10 at Blackjack) so they must be aware of the move and that it does work at their e-craps hence the prohibitive earnings
BUT if they are counting the odds bets in thhe wager it might still be worth it especially if all they are going for are some cheap rooms. $30 doey/dont backed by full odds. But I havent tested that so im just theorizing
Some comments are from those who are simply attracted to the idea of two-player hedging in and of itself. Granted, if two people are going to be playing, you no longer have the argument against hedging that criticizes betting twice as much all against the house edge. Two-player has problems of its own, though, and surely you yourself can name these possible problems.
*I prefer using 'punto and banco' instead of 'player and banker' when writing about baccarat, as you have to otherwise be on guard against confusing player-the-person with player-the-bet ... there's a similar problem with the word 'banker'
Quote: odiousgambitTopkat, you've been getting some replies that suggest doey-don't or punto-banco* hedging work well as offsetting bets. That some casinos evidently consider such hedging as cheating is taken as evidence it works by some. The reality is that hedging does not work to offset bets at all, not against the house edge and not to achieve better comping. The pit people who worry about it simply don't understand the facts. I agree *you* should worry about it if you try it, because there are pit bosses who would dock your comps if they knew you were doing it - these same ignorant pit people.
Some comments are from those who are simply attracted to the idea of two-player hedging in and of itself. Granted, if two people are going to be playing, you no longer have the argument against hedging that criticizes betting twice as much all against the house edge. Two-player has problems of its own, though, and surely you yourself can name these possible problems.
*I prefer using 'punto and banco' instead of 'player and banker' when writing about baccarat, as you have to otherwise be on guard against confusing player-the-person with player-the-bet ... there's a similar problem with the word 'banker'
Odious
To say hedging doesn't work to earn better comps is simply wrong
I think you are examining it solely from house edge. In this respect you are correct. The expected losses are the same
What you are discounting is the variance. And its the variance that is MORE important
Ex. Wagering $200 pass/dont pass has an expected loss of $200 only when the 12 hits.
Wagering one side it is conceivable to lose $2000 in an hour (possiblly less). Since time is a factor at tables you getting rated for one hour would have a direct affect on your comps vs.being rated for 4 hours or more. Is it possible it takes longer to lose $2000? Of course but thats variance
Without variance it is GUARANTEED you will last for hours. And be comped commensurate with that (assuming the hosts dont realize the hedge and discount your rating)
Don't Pass for 100 no free odds place 1 DC bet for 50.00
Without variance, you go from a chance to win to no chance to win. What you are describing is a pure state of "playing for comps" which is generally given a thumbs down. But nobody gives thumbs down if you get over-comped enough. Perhaps it is true that the pit starts creaming their jeans at that kind of action and gives you way more than your theo down there in those parts. I have my doubts.Quote: darkozWithout variance it is GUARANTEED you will last for hours. And be comped commensurate with that (assuming the hosts dont realize the hedge and discount your rating)
Quote: odiousgambitWithout variance, you go from a chance to win to no chance to win. What you are describing is a pure state of "playing for comps" which is generally given a thumbs down. But nobody gives thumbs down if you get over-comped enough. Perhaps it is true that the pit starts creaming their jeans at that kind of action and gives you way more than your theo down there in those parts. I have my doubts.
Correct
The play is not to win but to lose
Get overcomped
Clean up (win) on the tail end
Which is winning in my book (no pun intended referring to my actual book as yet to be published)
If you're actually going to do this, then I've always believed that all the play should go onto the card of a single player. If you're trying to get a room then it's more likely that you'd get it with one person with higher play then two who are "unrelated" with half the play.
Despite the extra edge that you'd gain for comps in the eyes of the casino by playing roulette over craps, you're probably better off at craps because it's easier to blend in at a crowded table and not have your scheme recognized (although I doubt that anyone in charge would care).
It's probably easier to do it with a buddy because a) if you're betting heavily enough to try to get good comps and the other person presents a card with the same last name as your own then it will attract attention.
Do it downtown, especially if you're going to use blacks. Black chips on the strip won't even get any attention.
The one thing that nobody has brought up, at least that I have seen, has nothing to do with any EV or mathematical angle at all. Even if you can go hours and hours without hitting that 12, the whole endeavor is BORING!!! Hours and hours to get a free meal or a room and drinks at the table that are free anyway? If you're a known player then you'd probably already have the room upfront anyway. I'd happily throw off the equation by placing a 6 or 8 just to keep myself awake. The bets might even win and protect your bankroll for a little while from that dreaded 12.
It’s possible what happened is that they took off part of your room bill but because you weren’t playing rated on a players card it didn’t trigger in their system. It’s also possible that they don’t target table players for offers. I’m not sure. I played slots there. I don’t think your idea of offsetting bets is the best approach. Also keep in mind if you do that, you’re splitting the action between 2 cards and it sounds like you’re trying to get as much action on one card to trigger offers. Next time you go, get a players card. Any future trips will be booked on that players card number and when you go again your room key is connected to that card. Depositing $5000 as you suggest may work. I would suggest playing $50-75 a hand on blackjack. Their rules there are decent. Find a slow dealer and you have a decent chance at breaking even. You’re going to have to take risk, that’s the whole point but I believe you’ll lose less this way. Also they have an electronic blackjack game there you can play with a players card. I believe it is 3:2 but make sure to check. This will count as slot play and will possibly benefit you better. If you get a players card linked to your room, your son can play with his room key and it will all count on your card. Lastly you can play some video poker. I haven’t searched all of their games but I believe the best I saw was 9/5 jacks. If you did 40-50k coin in this should get you some offers. Your expected loss is a little less than $1000, however variance will be much higher than that.Quote: Topkat10Thanks Sandy, I have been many times and fully aware of all the expenses associated with a stay there,i never got their players card over the years because I didn't play arted playing craps over the last few years at Mohegan/ Foxwoods, really enjoy playing, my income allows me now to stay at the Cove and I will be taking my two adult kids over 4th of July. The last time I was there was over Labor day with my son played craps avererage buy in was 500 a session multiple sessions maybe 5 -7 hours total for 3 days, at my request they took off roughly 250 of F and B and gave me a 50 dollar free play slot voucher, never received any offers for a return discounted room rate My big question are there any offsetting systems that would achieve a zero result involving 2 people at the same table? Someone responded with a single zero roulette system that would work but did not give specifics, Craps pass don't pass hedge the 12 on the comeout ? I could certainly just play at a higher limit by myself and hope for the best, also does making a deposit of "upfront money" get you any further consideration ? I suppose at the end of the day it all comes down to how much you lay out there, was hoping to get on their radar for discounted rates in the future thanks for your reply
