There is only one way to CONSISTENTLY win in craps.
Quote: WatchMeWinQuote: OnceDearThere must be greater differences than I thought between US English and English. I implied no such thing.
You have had good luck. Pure and simple. There are metaphorical bullets matey. You can't make it a winning game by spinning the chamber before each pull of the trigger.
Perhaps it is not the barrier between or English, mate, but rather the lack in you ability to grasp the sarcasm in my statement. I did not actually think you were giving me accolades, mate....lol I know you were insulting me, but that is all good. I have thick skin. So , when I return the favor, please have thick skin as well and don't suspend me.
And.... METAPHORICALLY speaking, again, if there are no bullets in the chamber, which you stated, then there is no way of blowing my brains away... METAPHORICALLY.
Now back to the topic at hand... you can play craps any way you like, and I wish you the best... but, maintain, if you stick around on the table, you will lose. Playing the probabilities, discipline, management, realistic expectation will put one in a greater position to be a winner. And ask 100 dealers if they believe there are rhythm and flows to the game, I bet 90% would agree.
See you at the Cage cashing winnings! Good luck.... MATE!
Asking 100 dealers or a 1000 dealers is meaningless. The average dealer is totally misinformed, and believes in all the gambling fallacies.
So you are saying that the dealers, who are around the game 24/7 and see every roll of the dice, are misinformed and dont know what they're talking about.... hmmmm I would put experience and history above any other advise given anywhere from anyone!
Anyway, I just got back from my quick trip to the local casino. Tables were empty.. which I love! I went 100 per number (650 across). Excellent flow to the dice with the shooter and stick person.. I was soooo tempted to stay on after I hit my first 3 box numbers, but I stayed consistent and disciplined.... thats the name of the game. The shooter proceeded to roll about 10 more boxes. I did not go back on at any point. Some were saying that I was loosing money for not working... but that is not the way to look at it. I view it as I made 70% return on my money in 2 minutes and I succeeded in my daily session. Cant look back. The difference between winners and losers is knowing how to play and when to walk. I could have dropped down to the minimum and let it ride, but not today.
Quote: PriorPostersAsking 100 dealers or a 1000 dealers is meaningless. The average dealer is totally misinformed, and believes in all the gambling fallacies.
.............
So you are saying that the dealers, who are around the game 24/7 and see every roll of the dice, are misinformed and dont know what they're talking about.... hmmmm I would put experience and history above any other advise given anywhere from anyone!
As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere between these two extremes. It would depend on age, intelligence, alertness, experience level, etc.
Some neophyte dealers probably start out believing a great many things and it may take them some time to learn. Some dealers zone out particularly on slow games with zilch getting into the toke box.
However, overall I would think that dealers see a lot of Point-SevenOut, a lot of people who shoot themselves in the foot, and they also see some humungous rolls. One dealer said that about once every shift he has seen rolls that really place demands on them and on the bank. People are pressing their bets like crazy and the shooter just keeps going and going like that darned rabbit. Of course the trick is to at least be there for that roll. Its the old Wall Street adage: You Can't Win If You Don't Play The Game. So being committed to "chipping" means you will never ride that monster roll.
PSO is dreaded. So is being on the wrong line. Eons ago Circus Circus had a lone craps table off by itself near the corridor to the buffet. I was buffet bound but decided to give it a try. As usual I was "From the Don't, Hoping They Won't" but I rolled a 7, I stayed on the Don'ts and rolled another 7, stick called out to passersby 'We Got A Seven Shooter here". I made the mistake of staying on the don't pass. Rolled another 7. Guy walks up and puts a C-note on Don'tCome and states "money plays" (It was allowed back in those days) and darn if I didn't roll that fourth 7. He walked off saying to the dealer "Made a believer out of me" and the dealer said to me "You shot yourself in the foot". So dealers do indeed see everything under the sun at some point in time. Some dice dealers will do a full shift then go to a neighboring casino and shoot dice. One dice dealer used to finish his shift and then go to that cheapie beer and peanuts oriented casino whose name escapes me at the moment and he put a c-note Across. If three numbers hit, he would walk and declare the rest as toke bets. He had been on his feet for eight hours, he wasn't going to linger at that table. "Chipping" was right for him.
Quote: WatchMeWin
So you are saying that the dealers, who are around the game 24/7 and see every roll of the dice, are misinformed and dont know what they're talking about.... hmmmm I would put experience and history above any other advise given anywhere from anyone!
So then I guess you'll take my experience and history in the business. Dealers care about nothing except keeping their job and making tips. They are the last people you want to trust for solid play advice, trends or math. Everything runs together. High and low marks stick out over the 1,000s of normal hands and things they see each day. Their and your opinions and memories of how things go are flawed.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13So then I guess you'll take my experience and history in the business. Dealers care about nothing except keeping their job and making tips. They are the last people you want to trust for solid play advice, trends or math. Everything runs together. High and low marks stick out over the 1,000s of normal hands and things they see each day. Their and your opinions and memories of how things go are flawed.
ZCore13
+1
Quote: Zcore13So then I guess you'll take my experience and history in the business. Dealers care about nothing except keeping their job and making tips. They are the last people you want to trust for solid play advice, trends or math. Everything runs together. High and low marks stick out over the 1,000s of normal hands and things they see each day. Their and your opinions and memories of how things go are flawed.
ZCore13
Craps dealers will encourage the dumb and center bets for precisely that reason. They know (1) big winners are more likely to tip (2) the center bets garnish the most revenue for the casino. So the center bets are by far the most profitable for dealer and casino and will help them keep their jobs and make more tips.
The dealers are also interested in keeping the game moving and keeping superstitions alive and well in order to keep players (that they want to keep) at the table. Their table personas likely differ wildly from what they actually know. What they actually know is that that the stack of chips stays fairly level most of the time and the boxes of incoming money get changed out often, because every single bet on the table (besides the odds bet, the best table bet in the casino), in the end, is tilted in their favor.
Quote: WatchMeWin
I walked away a winner, while others stayed and lost. Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. But knowing who, what, when, where, why, and how cant be taught.
You Placed/Bought all the way across and two numbers hit prior to a Seven.
(24/30)^2 = 0.64 or 64%.
In loosely related news, it may or may not rain today.
Quote: Mission146You Placed/Bought all the way across and two numbers hit prior to a Seven.
(24/30)^2 = 0.64 or 64%.
In loosely related news, it may or may not rain today.
Its been all sunny skies for me for the past 10 years. The prior 10 years , as Ive mentioned before, were mostly rain storms. This was because I played like an idiot and never left the table due to greed and lack of understanding of probabilities and flow.
Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. Ill stick to my lucky formula and enjoy the sunny skies.... consistently... key word.
Remember what I told you about the meteorologist? and Good luck!
It's worth reading again, even if you have already read it.
Quote: AxelWolfhttps://www.reviewjournal.com/crime/alleged-casino-conman-arrested-in-las-vegas/
It's worth reading again, even if you have already read it.
Looks like he got arrested for taking investment money and not investing it in anything rather than system selling.
This.Quote: Zcore13So then I guess you'll take my experience and history in the business. Dealers care about nothing except keeping their job and making tips. They are the last people you want to trust for solid play advice, trends or math...<SNIP>
And sometimes gambling away those tips, at amazing speed, as soon as they can get out of the box to go do so. They are hired as blue-collar workers performing repetitive tasks, on a money assembly line. At least around Las Vegas it is a running joke (that isn't really joking) that dealers are their own most degenerate customers. In the same way that many alcoholics tend to gravitate to working in the bar business. The most profitable poker tables in town are often tables of off-duty dealers cluelessly throwing away their tokes at amazing speed. I can think of some notable exceptions, but hearing what passes for thoughts on odds and outs and hand ranges and what they sincerely consider "strategy" is often hilarious.
Some of the sharpest among them know that they are clueless about playing the games they deal.
Quote: AxelWolfhttps://www.reviewjournal.com/crime/alleged-casino-conman-arrested-in-las-vegas/
It's worth reading again, even if you have already read it.
Im not advocating , by any means, what that guy did.... but it is not too different from what these other shysters are trying to due with 'alternative asset class' hedge funds. Sports betting hedge fund.... lol If there are willing people to hand over their money to people that say they can make them rich quick... then they are partly to blame. People need to take accountability of their own lives and finances.. and due their due diligence. Of course , not everyone is a sophisticated investor... but Come On Man! I would never even hand my money over to stock brokers, many of whom dont even know how to calculate market capitalization of a publicly traded company.
Here is the article.. https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21726699-it-really-recession-proof-hedge-funds-try-promote-sports-betting-asset
If there are suckers willing to put their money into this fund... then I would consider creating a tables game fund! lol
Well, that didnt work out to well. After being up my 50% and not walking away, I proceeded to ride it. I crapped out soon after and now found myself down 20%. I was upset with myself for not being disciplined and I decided not to try and get back to even. At this point I knew the energy had shifted and there was nothing good that would come out of sticking around. I walked out with a minor L. Knowing when to say when, both in the W and L scenario, is important. I will be back later today to recoup.
Quote: WatchMeWinHere is a losing session post. The reason is simply because I lost discipline for a minute.
Nope, that's not why.
Quote: sabreNope, that's not why.
Just got it all back plus another 150% of my stack. Beautiful day.... Played it perfectly this afternoon! Oh yea, and Yes, it was.
Also any house edge can be reduced by doing a bit of progressive betting and setting a stop/loss. For example if you place 32 across, you have a 66% chance of hitting a score number instead of the 7 and non-score numbers (1,2,11,12). Take 2 hits and then pull the bet down. If the shooter 7's out on the first throw after the point, it would take almost 5 throws (therefore 2.5 players) to get your money back. What you can do is increase the next bet to $64 across and that way you can get your loss back in less than 3 rolls (and make a bit of profit). You can definitely win consistently if you do the following
1) be disciplined with the 2 hits and out
2) not be afraid to increase bet after not making it to 2 hits
3) Set a stop loss
I have tried this strategy out over the last 2 weeks and here are the results (Keep in mind I did get greedy a couple of times and went for 3-4 hits, and it didn't work out for me)
$25, $50. $32, $42, $70, $49, $21, $-100 (stop loss), $81 = $270 profit. I have had 8/9 winning sessions.
Yes the sample size is small, and it should be noted that the loss occurred at a casino I just tried out for the first time. I have yet to lose using this strategy at the casino and craps table I normally frequent. Yes I do believe in dice control. I see the regulars every morning when I stop off on the way to work to throw a couple. It is always the usual suspects that throw into the teens at least (me included). They are all dice setters.
Quote: Chigu
Also any house edge can be reduced by doing a bit of progressive betting and setting a stop/loss.
No it can't.
ZCore13
Quote: SOOPOOChigu.... Welcome to the forum, sort of...... Having been here nearly a decade I can tell you NO ONE WILL BELIEVE YOU THAT YOU HAVE FOUND A BETTING STRATEGY/ SYSTEM TO BEAT CRAPS. So if you keep posting such, you will be continuously told that NO ONE BELIEVES YOU. Let's make believe we are all wrong and you are right..... Just keep going to the casino, make consistent money every day at the tables, and laugh at me every day you go make that deposit at the bank.
Thanks, appreciate the welcome.... sort of? lol
There is no SURE way of ever beating the casino! I just think there are ways to increase the chances. I am just going by the numbers to increase my chances. Yes every roll is independent of the previous roll and has an equal chance of occurring but if the odds are 1/6 for the 7, then there must be odds of 5/6 for hitting any other number instead of the 7.
Just to keep things on the up and up. THERE IS NO BETTING STRATEGY/SYSTEM to guarantee a win in ANY Casino game. However there are ways to increase your chances of consistently winning.
Take for example Credit cards that offer cash back rewards. People like myself and a bunch of others take advantage of this and don't pay a penny in interest because we pay off our balances every month (and get the cash back). So therefore we are a loss for the credit card company. However, on average more people carry a balance and pay the 18% interest then the ones that pay it off in full. I know it's not the same, but there are ways to game the system. Players like myself don't concern the casino because you won't make thousands of dollars with this system at all. IT may only be $30 here or $50 there etc.
C O N S I S T E N T L Y WINNING. Remember that.
There are certainly betting strategies that will increase your chance of a 'session' win. There are strategies to maximize variance while having as low a house edge as possible. If you include comps there may be times when you are playing with an edge (rare at craps). If you find a dealer that overpays you you are likely playing with an edge.
So my times playing craps..... Pass line with odds, come bets with odds..... I will win somewhere over 40% of the time, and lose somewhere under 60% of the time. There is a small house edge that eats away my bankroll, but the variance is high enough that I win often enough to make me want to come back. But I am under no illusion that after a win I have found a way to win consistently.
Quote: ChiguThe 'short game' is the only way to consistently win (and yes you can consistently win).
Quote: ChiguI see the regulars every morning when I stop off ON THE WAY TO WORK to throw a couple.
ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK
Yes, lets look at the math and then add some logic to what you just said.
Quote: AxelWolfON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK ON THE WAY TO WORK
Yes, lets look at the math and then add some logic to what you just said.
I never said it was a full proof strategy, and I am not a high roller that I could afford to quit my day job to do this. I just go to the casino to have a bit of fun and make money. I’d rather win a little at a time knowing that I will miss out on huge rolls.
Just as an update I went after work today and had another winning session. Only $47 but that’s because u was on a $3 table and was practicing a new throw for that table that has been my nemesis.
Quote: ChiguI never said it was a full proof strategy
fool proof ... or I will accept foolproof. Full proof has to do with theorems.
And if you're actually going to the casino to make money and not just for entertainment, then I suggest you request a lifetime ban form and fill it out.
Now for this System:
Odds of getting zero hits = 6/30. Lose 32
Odds of getting one hit = 4/5 * 1/5 = 4/25. Lose 25 on 3/4 and 23 on 1/4 (you still have your bets up)
Odds of getting 2nd hit and taking down = 16/25, let's see. Win 18 1/16th. Win 14 9/16 and win 16 6/16 (you take your bets down)
Add it all up. -1/5 * 32 - 4/25*(25*3/4+23*1/4)+16/25*(18/16+14*9/16+16*6/16)
= -32/5 - 98/25 + (18+126+96)/25
= -160/25 + (142/25)
=-18/25
= You lose $.72 on average per outcome for this strategy.
Which is a house advantage of 18/800 or 2.25%.
You'll have to forgive me if I am wrong but I am doing this calculation in my head (hence the long math).
As for your attitude in general it is absolutely foolish to believe that any system or strategy can overcome the sheer odds of a random crap roll.
Get out while you still can. The positive variance that you are experiencing is pure luck!
Quote: ChiguSorry to revive an old thread here, but I really disagree. The 'short game' is the only way to consistently win (and yes you can consistently win). Let's look at the math, there is more ways to roll a 7 then ANY other number, so when comparing one place bet number vs the 7 that would then be a losing proposition. However if there is a 6/36 chance of rolling a 7, there is a 24/36 chance of rolling either a 4,5,6,8,9 or 10 (6 ways to roll the 1,2,11,12). Therefore you have a 66% chance of hitting those numbers instead of the 7. Also mathematically (and in real life) the 7 will show up on average once every 6 rolls. You can consistently win by taking 2 hits and then turning your bets off (or pulling down).
Also any house edge can be reduced by doing a bit of progressive betting and setting a stop/loss. For example if you place 32 across, you have a 66% chance of hitting a score number instead of the 7 and non-score numbers (1,2,11,12). Take 2 hits and then pull the bet down. If the shooter 7's out on the first throw after the point, it would take almost 5 throws (therefore 2.5 players) to get your money back. What you can do is increase the next bet to $64 across and that way you can get your loss back in less than 3 rolls (and make a bit of profit). You can definitely win consistently if you do the following
1) be disciplined with the 2 hits and out
2) not be afraid to increase bet after not making it to 2 hits
3) Set a stop loss
Yes the sample size is small,
You may win consistently, for awhile, but it will end. The martingale also wins often, until it doesn't and then it REALLY doesn't. I'd recommend keeping data in a spreadsheet. Let us know where you're at after 100, 500 and 1,000 sessions. Could be educational.
I will keep a log of wins and losses and let you know what happens.
Quote: ChiguWow a lot of animosity in this thread. First off there is no way to actually have a mathematical edge in any casino game. There is no arbitrage opportunity. I understand that. I go to the casino to have some fun, make a bit of money is my goal and I only take what I am willing to lose. The biggest enemies of the gambler are usually time and chasing the big win. I am just trying to remove that from my game.
I will keep a log of wins and losses and let you know what happens.
Your second sentence (claim) is provably false.
Quote: FinsRuleNo, the biggest enemy of the gambler is the house edge.
House edge is a given, but I would argue that the biggest enemy is the lack of bankroll of many players based on how much they are betting. I think most recreational gamblers bring far too less of a bankroll based on their average bet to ride through the swings and they bust out before hitting positive variance. Even with the house edge (as long as a player doesn't hit super negative variance from the start, middle, and finish), he or she "should" see some positive variance making them up for a short time. If they chose to stop the session while they are up a small unit is their choice. Most don't stop and continue playing unless a big win happens or if they go broke.
Hi and welcome to the forum. If you have found some fun ways to get value out of your wagering, then don't worry about any apparent animosity.Quote: ChiguWow a lot of animosity in this thread. ...
I will keep a log of wins and losses and let you know what happens.
The maths savvy regulars here don't have much time or support for any concept of beating games with negative expectation. We KNOW that 'systems' and 'strategies' and ideas like stop losses and 'hit and run' have no monetary value. Some would say 'no value' but I'll concede the fun. Same goes with dice influence.
Quote: ChiguJust to keep things on the up and up. THERE IS NO BETTING STRATEGY/SYSTEM to guarantee a win in ANY Casino game. However there are ways to increase your chances of consistently winning.
However, all of the ones I am aware of end up costing you more when you lose than what you earn when you win. That's what we are trying to explain.
Take a "10-step Martingale" on the pass line (e.g. start with a $5 pass bet; if you lose, make it $10; keep doubling when you lose until either you win, in which case you are ahead $5 since your last win (or when you started, if it is your first win), so either start over or walk away since you are ahead, or you lose 10 in a row and are behind $5115, but it is assumed you cannot bet $5120. If you stop after one win, you will have a winning session about 889 times out of every 890 - but those 889 wins combined make you $4445, while the one loss cost you $5115.
Another example, again with the pass line:
If your strategy is to bet 1 each time and stop when you are ahead 2 or behind 10, you will end up ahead about 4 out of every 5 sessions.
One thing is true: the larger your loss stop point to profit stop point is, the more likely you are to end up ahead.
Quote: ThatDonGuyHowever, all of the ones I am aware of end up costing you more when you lose than what you earn when you win. That's what we are trying to explain.
Take a "10-step Martingale" on the pass line (e.g. start with a $5 pass bet; if you lose, make it $10; keep doubling when you lose until either you win, in which case you are ahead $5 since your last win (or when you started, if it is your first win), so either start over or walk away since you are ahead, or you lose 10 in a row and are behind $5115, but it is assumed you cannot bet $5120. If you stop after one win, you will have a winning session about 889 times out of every 890 - but those 889 wins combined make you $4445, while the one loss cost you $5115.
Another example, again with the pass line:
If your strategy is to bet 1 each time and stop when you are ahead 2 or behind 10, you will end up ahead about 4 out of every 5 sessions.
One thing is true: the larger your loss stop point to profit stop point is, the more likely you are to end up ahead.
Yes I agree. Martingale system is crap, one loss can wipe out a bunch of wins and it would take you forever to get that back. Also bankroll has to be huge.
Because I am trying to build up my bankroll. I stop at $50 profit and leave if I hit my stop loss at $100. I will up that eventually. This morning I cashed in with $100 and walked away with $151 ($51 profit). Add that to my last nights win and I have covered my stop loss whenever it does come next.
Quote: ChiguBecause I am trying to build up my bankroll. I stop at $50 profit and leave if I hit my stop loss at $100. I will up that eventually. This morning I cashed in with $100 and walked away with $151 ($51 profit). Add that to my last nights win and I have covered my stop loss whenever it does come next.
But you can't cover two stop losses, even with a win between them. If you play long enough, a string of losses that wipes out your winnings "should" happen. I will admit, this is like saying, if you play VP long enough, you "should" get a Royal Flush; like you said, your sample size is way too small to credit your results to anything more than "good luck up to this point."
Can you describe your system in a little more detail? I assume "32 across" is placing/buying the 6 point numbers, but how are the bets spread out?
That way, I can get a better idea of what the probability is that you will end up ahead after 2 wins before losing your entire $100.
Quote: ThatDonGuyBut you can't cover two stop losses, even with a win between them. If you play long enough, a string of losses that wipes out your winnings "should" happen. I will admit, this is like saying, if you play VP long enough, you "should" get a Royal Flush; like you said, your sample size is way too small to credit your results to anything more than "good luck up to this point."
Can you describe your system in a little more detail? I assume "32 across" is placing/buying the 6 point numbers, but how are the bets spread out?
That way, I can get a better idea of what the probability is that you will end up ahead after 2 wins before losing your entire $100.
See my post above, and factor in $50/100 loss into wincraps.
Apparently you didnt read the entire thread. Had you done so, you would have known what you were getting yourself into. Please check the OP's current status.Quote: ChiguWow a lot of animosity in this thread.
Get back to us when you are no longer driving to WORK and instead, you are driving from your yacht to the strip club to make it rain.
Quote: AxelWolfApparently you didnt read the entire thread. Had you done so, you would have known what you were getting yourself into. Please check the OP's current status.
Get back to us when you are no longer driving to WORK and instead, you are driving from your yacht to the strip club to make it rain.
It’s all good, I have thick skin. It’s just the internet. Won’t be able to quit my job for two reasons
1) I’m on a work visa so I can only stay in the states if I’m working at the company. Lol
2) I would never be able to risk that much.
As of now I have put my initial bankroll into the bank account and will see where I go with casino money. It’s all for fun anyway.
Here is my best advice for you.... STAY HYDRATED!Quote: ChiguIt’s all good, I have thick skin. It’s just the internet. Won’t be able to quit my job for two reasons
1) I’m on a work visa so I can only stay in the states if I’m working at the company. Lol
2) I would never be able to risk that much.
As of now I have put my initial bankroll into the bank account and will see where I go with casino money. It’s all for fun anyway.
Quote: LovecompsIf there was actually a way to constintaly beat the game I would have figured it out by now.
Yup, and I garonteeee ya, the iron cross won’t get you there!
Quote: DeMangoYup, and I garonteeee ya, the iron cross won’t get you there!
No, but it can provide entertainment.
Quote: LovecompsNo, but it can provide entertainment.
LOL very true, when I took the wife with me to the casino I had her play the iron cross, that we she collects something on each throw. Rather than getting bored and waiting for her numbers to hit.
Increases the fun.
Been changing up the strategy a bit and and only betting either on myself or people I know are consistent rollers and bet a bit heavy for the first two hits and then regressing to the minimum and work from there.
Quote: ChiguJust to provide an update. Played 3 more sessions. And won $11, $131, $41 respectively. The $1 is superstition for me so I tip the dealers to get my cash in total to have $1.
Been changing up the strategy a bit and and only betting either on myself or people I know are consistent rollers and bet a bit heavy for the first two hits and then regressing to the minimum and work from there.
Can you tell us in actual time how long you were at the craps table for your 3 winning sessions (each)?
