There is only one way to CONSISTENTLY win in craps.

Play the probabilities in your favor.
Have realistic expectations.
Understand Management and Discipline.
Hit n Run.

If all criteria is applied , one can consistently walk out with more then they walked in with. Although the management, discipline, and realistic expectations is extremely difficult for 99% of the people that gamble in casinos.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Play the probabilities in your favor

Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.

Here's my list
1. find a hot machine
2. find a cold dealer
3. take the money and run

You should make that your signature line.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Play the probabilities in your favor.

If f that's an acceptable "strategy" for craps, then I propose an alternate: Play the pass line and "E" while shooting and roll nothing but yo after yo.

Are you from Mesa, AZ AARP craps club?

Quote: odiousgambit

Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.

There's an accurate list of all profitable craps bets in his OP.

Quote: odiousgambit

Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.

Here is one of my posts from Sept...

"Playing for a long period of time is certainly a negative EV in craps an all other table games except card counting in bj. Playing the pass line is not a good bet in my opinion.... stacking large odds behind is the casino's way to lure you into a losing bet. You will have to make a number twice before a 7, which probabilities are not in your favor. If you want to put large bets on a roll of the dice you can just put that same amount on a place bet and take it down any time you like. That is your edge. sure you will get paid a tad bit less, but at least you have the control as to when you want to stop working. 6/5 rather than 7/6 on the 6 n 8 is hardly a difference maker... especially when it is more improbable of an outcome... same with the 4,5,9, n 10.

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."

I could give you a ton of examples of how people Ive played craps with just dont turn their bets off, nor do they walk away from the table when they are ahead.... any amount ahead. This is where discipline and realistic expectations come in to play. But dont take my work for it. Next time you go to the craps table, just watch each roll and see if they make just 2 numbers (not points) just 2 numbers other than 7.... and see how people stay on every roll until the 7 out comes.

I played craps with a friend last week who swore he would follow my lead. He did this because he has watched me win over and over while he lost.. and we were on the same table and rolls. We proceeded to make a few dollars here and there... going off after every shoot hit 2 numbers. We were up 200% on our buy in within 15 mins.. I said I was done and colored up. He proceeded to say playing and got greedy. He did not go off after hitting a couple of numbers on each shooter. Inevitably , he lost it all. Enough said. Ive seen this scenario over and over and over. Hit n Run is how to beat the casino. I dont care if you only make 50 bucks on the day... at least you didnt lose.

And for those who are saying..'by playing this way , you will miss that big roll'. To that I say if you stay on every shooter looking for that long roll, you will go broke so quick you probably wont have enough back up to play when that long roll hits... which is maybe 1 out of every 10,000 shoots.. if not more!

And for those who are saying.." what if they 7 out right away?" To that I say, this is the only way you can lose and it does happen. They key is to stay consistent on the next rolls and dont chase hard.. meaning press n press and not go off after a couple rolls. It is tough to do, but it has to be done. Additionally, you can not go over the amount you were willing to risk for the day. This could wipe out all of you past winnings. Discipline! Accept the loss now and then. It will happen. Tuck in your tail and leave.... live another day.

Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!

Quote: WatchMeWin

Hit n Run.

That is the same thing that Lady Luck, a/k/a Lady Variance, does to me, hit and run.

It may not quite be "play the probabilities in your favor" its more play them wisely and knowingly. Only one casino had a web site where they repeatedly claimed "the odds are in your favor" and I sent the Director of Table Games an email indicating the absurdity of that, reminding him of the Nevada regulations and indicating I would re-check the website in thirty days. About a week later they hired a web consultant to re-do their website.

Quote: WatchMeWin

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."

Yeah, but no one played sardine in the airliner or forked over money for a hotel room to walk away after a very brief period. Where are you going to go? Up to the room? Watch tv? Go a bar and see if your gambling improves?

If you play long enough its 'up jumped the Devil' but if you "hit and run" it can be expensive also.

Quote: WatchMeWin

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.... Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner.
....
Hit n Run is how to beat the casino. I dont care if you only make 50 bucks on the day... at least you didnt lose.

Why not just stay out of the place to begin with? Doesn't that absolutely guarantee that you don't lose to the casino?

Now if you really had a way to guarantee that a short session would leave you as a winner (not just avoid losing for a few moments), then it seems that the best course of action would indeed be to "hit n run" and parlay that into maybe a hundred sessions a day.

Hit n run, that’s what I do.
Go to crap table, place $ 6 on 6 or 8, wait for 2 hits, run! Won $14.
Then next session, place $6 on 6 or 8, wait for 2 seven out, run! Lost $12.
Then, same procedure repeated again and again and again....
Then what happen?
I think I lost some money. All I know is that this game of crap is a negative expectation game and I will lose 1.52% in the long run.
But I have fun!!

Met this guy at the Long Horn a few months back, around 3AM. Just three people at the table and both of the other two were pretty chatty, but not overly so. Guy had a system that worked perfectly for him. He'd drive Uber until he'd cleared about $75, then log off. Cashed in with $25. Played $2, with an occasional $4 bet.
His goal was to win $41. He tipped a dollar ,took his $15 profit and called it a night. If he lost his $25, he'd go out and do an Uber or two and recoup his $25. He got his nightly BJ fix and also covered his daily nut.

Quote: billryan

He'd drive Uber until he'd cleared about $75, then log off. Cashed in with $25. Played $2, with an occasional $4 bet.
His goal was to win $41. He tipped a dollar ,took his $15 profit and called it a night. If he lost his $25, he'd go out and do an Uber or two and recoup his $25.

Great lifestyle. Unfortunately for me the only one who would hire me to drive for Uber would be Lyft. And in my car, all my Uber runs would have to be mainly down hill.

I just wonder why his goal wasn't to go from a 25 dollar buy-in to 200 dollars in the rack?

Realistic goals are easily achieved. I'd guess a decent player can be $15 ahead on a $25 buy in at least half the sessions.
Multiple small winning sessions and no big losing sessions isn't a bad way to play. Especially when one immediately worked off his losses. I ran into him a few months later, passing him while going into the Dennys at Wild West and said hello but he didn't recognize me and gave me a curt Wassup.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!

No they don't. There's a million of you falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Most employees just laugh when hearing or seeing this strategy.

You'll lose exactly the same in the long run playing 200 short "hit and run" sessions as playing one long session and earn less comps while doing it.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Just as the little white ball and the roulette wheel do not know that you have arrived or left, the dice don't know it either. Nor it seems does Lady Variance. However a series of short sessions is simply a way of wagering less money than betting on each roll.

Its sort of the opposite of what the casino does to the 'blueies': Yes, you can play Bingo but only with one hour breaks.

Quote: Zcore13

No they don't. There's a million of you falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Most employees just laugh when hearing or seeing this strategy.

You'll lose exactly the same in the long run playing 200 short "hit and run" sessions as playing one long session and earn less comps while doing it.

ZCore13

Yup, there's no way around this inevitable and mathematical certainty.

With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.

That said, let me address these points one by one:

Quote: WatchMeWin

Here is one of my posts from Sept...

"Playing for a long period of time is certainly a negative EV in craps an all other table games except card counting in bj. Playing the pass line is not a good bet in my opinion.... stacking large odds behind is the casino's way to lure you into a losing bet. You will have to make a number twice before a 7, which probabilities are not in your favor. If you want to put large bets on a roll of the dice you can just put that same amount on a place bet and take it down any time you like. That is your edge. sure you will get paid a tad bit less, but at least you have the control as to when you want to stop working. 6/5 rather than 7/6 on the 6 n 8 is hardly a difference maker... especially when it is more improbable of an outcome... same with the 4,5,9, n 10.

This paragraph is wrong in every possible way.

1.) Even if PL + Odds were not the best way to play, which they are, taking that same amount of money and putting it on the PL alone is better than making a Place Bet with it. The PL has a higher probability of winning and a lower House Edge than any combination of Place Bets.

2.) You have control as to when your odds, "Stop working," on the Pass Line. You can remove your Odds bets (or reduce) anytime you like as long as the PL has not yet been resolved.

3.) The PL, per resolution, has a lower expected loss for the same $$$ bets than do resolved Place Bets.

4.) PL + Odds, given the same overall $$$ amounts, is the best combination of bets to be made on an expected loss to money exposed (effective house edge) ratio.

5.) If you really think 6/5 is, "Hardly a difference maker," as opposed to 7:6, then there are a lot of 6:5 Blackjack Tables that would love to have you as opposed to 3:2 ones.

Quote:

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."

The only reason that this advice is somewhat good is NOT because you will, "Walk away a winner," more often, but because you will play less Craps, in general. If you make fewer -EV bets, (which all bets except Odds are...excepting a few casinos on Buy 4/Buy 10 and perhaps Field) then you have a lower expected loss over a finite number of physical days. In effect, making ten -EV bets per day (at the same House Edge) is better than making one hundred of them.

The casinos would not be as profitable ONLY because fewer -EV bets would be being made, but not because the expectation of any individual bet changes...because it doesn't.

Quote:

I could give you a ton of examples of how people Ive played craps with just dont turn their bets off, nor do they walk away from the table when they are ahead.... any amount ahead. This is where discipline and realistic expectations come in to play. But dont take my work for it. Next time you go to the craps table, just watch each roll and see if they make just 2 numbers (not points) just 2 numbers other than 7.... and see how people stay on every roll until the 7 out comes.

Again, every time you, "Leave it up," as opposed to taking it down, you are effectively making a new bet. The more bets you make, the more money you expect to lose. Your method really doesn't involve anything other than suggesting a lesser number of bets be made, which in and of itself, should be encouraged. That doesn't change the mathematical expectation of any individual bet, though.

Quote:

And for those who are saying.." what if they 7 out right away?" To that I say, this is the only way you can lose and it does happen. They key is to stay consistent on the next rolls and dont chase hard.. meaning press n press and not go off after a couple rolls. It is tough to do, but it has to be done. Additionally, you can not go over the amount you were willing to risk for the day. This could wipe out all of you past winnings. Discipline! Accept the loss now and then. It will happen. Tuck in your tail and leave.... live another day.

Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!

The casinos hate you so much that I imagine, one and all, they are still happily accepting every negative expectation bet you are willing to make, however infrequent.

Quote: Mission146

With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.

That said, let me address these points one by one:



This paragraph is wrong in every possible way.

1.) Even if PL + Odds were not the best way to play, which they are, taking that same amount of money and putting it on the PL alone is better than making a Place Bet with it. The PL has a higher probability of winning and a lower House Edge than any combination of Place Bets.

2.) You have control as to when your odds, "Stop working," on the Pass Line. You can remove your Odds bets (or reduce) anytime you like as long as the PL has not yet been resolved.

3.) The PL, per resolution, has a lower expected loss for the same $$$ bets than do resolved Place Bets.

4.) PL + Odds, given the same overall $$$ amounts, is the best combination of bets to be made on an expected loss to money exposed (effective house edge) ratio.

5.) If you really think 6/5 is, "Hardly a difference maker," as opposed to 7:6, then there are a lot of 6:5 Blackjack Tables that would love to have you as opposed to 3:2 ones.



The only reason that this advice is somewhat good is NOT because you will, "Walk away a winner," more often, but because you will play less Craps, in general. If you make fewer -EV bets, (which all bets except Odds are...excepting a few casinos on Buy 4/Buy 10 and perhaps Field) then you have a lower expected loss over a finite number of physical days. In effect, making ten -EV bets per day (at the same House Edge) is better than making one hundred of them.

The casinos would not be as profitable ONLY because fewer -EV bets would be being made, but not because the expectation of any individual bet changes...because it doesn't.



Again, every time you, "Leave it up," as opposed to taking it down, you are effectively making a new bet. The more bets you make, the more money you expect to lose. Your method really doesn't involve anything other than suggesting a lesser number of bets be made, which in and of itself, should be encouraged. That doesn't change the mathematical expectation of any individual bet, though.



The casinos hate you so much that I imagine, one and all, they are still happily accepting every negative expectation bet you are willing to make, however infrequent.

When was the last time you played craps? How did you play and for how long? What was your end result?

Quote: Mission146

With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.

Mission, I can appreciate your opinion, but I firmly disagree... as history and experience are greater evidence than throwing numbers around. Perhaps I have been super lucky 9,000x out of 10,000x consistently on the craps tables (approximately 10,000 shooters over the past 10 years - average 4 days a week x a modest 5 shooters per day x 50 weeks per year x past 10 years = 10,000). Yes, 90% success rate is about right.

You can play how you like. Im not selling a book. Not looking for money. Im just letting people know the best way to consistently win in craps.. in my experience and opinion. If you want to stay on trying to hit long rolls, play max odds on pass and come bet, and try to make 5000% each time you walk to the craps table, good luck, but it will end badly for anyone trying to do so.

When was the last time you played craps? How did you play / Strategy ? What was your outcome?

Experience and opinions are useless. Math will beat them every time.

Exactly! The numbers in profits gain from my cumulative experiences on the tables do not lie. One needs to know how to make it work.

A wise saying.... There once was a brilliant meteorologist. He was absolutely a genius with his science. Top of his class, knew weather like no other. He could predict when it would rain, precisely where it would rain, and how much rainfall. But when the rain came, he didn't have enough common sense and experience to open the damn umbrella.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Exactly! The numbers in profits gain from my cumulative experiences on the tables do not lie. One needs to know how to make it work.

A wise saying.... There once was a brilliant meteorologist. He was absolutely a genius with his science. Top of his class, knew weather like no other. He could predict when it would rain, precisely where it would rain, and how much rainfall. But when the rain came, he didn't have enough common sense and experience to open the damn umbrella.

I used to play a ton of Caribbean Stud poker long before I started AP'ing. I have a net positive monetary result from that game. Your short term exposure to the game is meaningless. Keep playing you'll eventually tap out.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

you'll eventually tap out.

Aw, WoN thought he was agreeing with you - your comment about the math.

Mission... I'm not sure if you got my last question but when was the last time you played craps? What was your strategy? And what was your outcome?

Quote: WatchMeWin

Mission... I'm not sure if you got my last question but when was the last time you played craps? What was your strategy? And what was your outcome?

I would love to know how any of those things are relevant to the topic at hand. That said, assuming it is somehow relevant:

A.) Couple months ago.

B.) Pass/2x Odds, Place 6/8, never press.

C.) Won a little, but was not expected to.

I'm not arguing whether or not your method wins frequently, I am arguing that no method of play, particularly not the one that you describe, yields a positive expectation.

EDIT: In the rare event I play, I buy in for $40 or $50 at an empty table, and either lose or double it. Sometimes I do neither, I'll often not double it or lose all because I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.

Quote: Mission146

I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.

I tend to want a bit more bang for my buck and try to keep going hoping luck will change, but personal preferences aside that House Edge applies to every bet you make irrespective of any pauses in your game.

Quote: FleaStiff

I tend to want a bit more bang for my buck and try to keep going hoping luck will change, but personal preferences aside that House Edge applies to every bet you make irrespective of any pauses in your game.

I don't think he pauses. Lol. I think he quits.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I don't think he pauses. Lol. I think he quits.


ZCore13

That's correct, and I agree with FleaStiff that every bet has a negative expectation.

I mean, it's a lifelong session, so I guess I pause in the sense that I intend to play Craps again at some point in my life, but I did mean that I don't play anymore that day and don't know when I'll be playing again.

It really doesn't take me much action to get my, "Fix," when it comes to Craps. That's mostly because I get so irritated when I lose, even though that is the expected result. If some winning is followed by a losing hand, then I say, "Why not leave ahead?"

You guys can ask TeddyS, as soon as I lose a hand of anything (with exception to Let it Ride or Pai-Gow Poker) I'm pretty much done. Of course, I've played LiR twice this entire year and haven't played PGP since I was last in Vegas, so that tells you how much -EV I'm putting into those games.

Quote: Mission146

I would love to know how any of those things are relevant to the topic at hand. That said, assuming it is somehow relevant:

A.) Couple months ago.

B.) Pass/2x Odds, Place 6/8, never press.

C.) Won a little, but was not expected to.

I'm not arguing whether or not your method wins frequently, I am arguing that no method of play, particularly not the one that you describe, yields a positive expectation.

EDIT: In the rare event I play, I buy in for $40 or $50 at an empty table, and either lose or double it. Sometimes I do neither, I'll often not double it or lose all because I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.

Thank you for your reply. I would never play a game where I didn't expect to win. That is just giving money away freely. I guess we all have different perspectives of how to spend money. The entertainment value has its value I suppose for many. I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

How are those questions relevant? Apparently, I wanted to hear how you play the game you are preaching on. Im not saying you are right or wrong, I just wanted to know if you win. Entertainment value is not a bad strategy.

Quote: WatchMeWin

I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

Your strategy is little more than Russian Roulette, So far, you encountered more than your share of empty chambers. Good for you.
Get the executors to your estate to post here on your behalf when you get to hear that bang.

Hit and run tactics, win goals, sessions. It's all loblocks.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1370

Quote: OnceDear

Your strategy is little more than Russian Roulette, So far, you encountered more than your share of empty chambers. Good for you.
Get the executors to your estate to post here on your behalf when you get to hear that bang.

Hit and run tactics, win goals, sessions. It's all loblocks.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1370

You state that I have had more than my share of empty chambers, which you inadvertently are implying that I have no chance of losing since there are no bullets in the chamber. I appreciate you accolade , but I would say that there is at least one bullet in my chamber... but the slots are in the thousands. So far so good! Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. All that matters to me is the W at the end of the day. Good luck with your game of choice and however you play. I wish everyone to win.

Quote: WatchMeWin

You state that I have had more than my share of empty chambers, which you inadvertently are implying that I have no chance of losing since there are no bullets in the chamber. I appreciate you accolade , but I would say that there is at least one bullet in my chamber... but the slots are in the thousands. So far so good! Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. All that matters to me is the W at the end of the day. Good luck with your game of choice and however you play. I wish everyone to win.

There must be greater differences than I thought between US English and English. I implied no such thing.

You have had good luck. Pure and simple. There are metaphorical bullets matey. You can't make it a winning game by spinning the chamber before each pull of the trigger.

Did you not read my blog post? It's absolutely dead easy to have high probability of a achieving a modest percentage win goal. It becomes progressively more likely that you give it all back as you stack up the sessions.

I don't know what session bankroll you walk in with or what session target dollar amount you have, but your hit and run strategy is abject nonsense. I won't say 'loblocks' again, because it seems you don't do anagrams.

Win targets and hit and run strategies only succeed to the extent that they make you play less and tend to lose less dollars. They may make playing more fun. They add nothing to your probability of making meaningful gains. E.g. the probability of doubling your starting bankroll over a lifetime sits at just under 50% and you can't change that. It doesn't mean that you won't do so or that you haven't done so.

Anyhow, You've baited me enough with your daft strategy. Others have tried to coax you to see the truth, I'm sure even more will take your bait. Enjoy your game. I'm sure the casino loves you and would love that you are trying to draw in more suckers for them.

Quote: OnceDear

I won't say 'loblocks' again, because it seems you don't do anagrams.

actually that is where trans-Atlantic language differences kicked in .... Americans react to the word Bollocks as a quaint thing Brits say that 'probably means Ox Dung'. Note which cuss word I feel free to spell out and which one I changed a bit to remain US-polite. A small percent here would know what it means. BTW is 'bloody' a word still beyond the pale to use politely in the UK?

Quote:

I'm sure even more will take your bait.

Me this time. I'd say the reality in this matter ranks like this:

*the claim is all Bollocks and Ox Dung....................0% chance since we all know that is impossible and, besides, it is so bloody impolite to say so

*the man keeps no records and relies on foggy memory; thus doesnt know if overall he is up, down, or about even, but has been lucky at least not to have been taken to the cleaners.......................50% chance

*goes by the records generated by the casino on his player card, which shows him 'way up'. That would be me too btw....................................................................................25% chance

*selective memory problems have him overstating how much he has actually played, thus the plausibility of being up instead of down is more common .....................20% chance

*just has had the best positive variance possible, reserved for the 1-99.999% , and is accurately stating his results.....................................................................................5%

*his betting system of hit and run actually works, and all his detractors here and the info at wizardofodds.com on the matter is all wet.........................................................0% also

Quote: odiousgamb

Americans react to the word Bollocks as a quaint thing Brits say that 'probably means Ox Dung'.

Ok. Linguistics first... I used the anagram 'loblocks' to obfuscate the expletive 'b0!!0cks' which literally means testicles. In the UK we are probably more likely to say 'That's a load of bo!!0ck5’ than we are to use the expression 'bull ***t'.
Bloody is a very mild expletive here, Usage such as 'don't be bloody stupid' or as the mild exasperation 'bloody hell'. Not exactly in common polite use, but would not be out of place at nan's bingo club.

Apologies to all if my use of obfuscated expletives went too far.

Back to WMW's posts. . .
His problem might be that he has no defined bankroll, just the few hundred or thousand that he has on him for any session. He may have conveniently forgotten the odd ATM visit. With selective memory or selective reporting he may have a gut feeling that he is up overall. He may even be right. After all, a one in ten probability is quite credible.
In an earlier post he mentioned his hit and run goal was 33% session profit. By OnceDear's rule of thumb, his probability of success is approximately 75%. So maybe WMW believes winning 3 out of 4 sessions is consistently winning, then I'll concede that. Shame about the other session, where he busts out.
I'd say there is a 50:50 chance that he has a bankroll which is above some baseline.
Regardless of that, we need to guess whether he believes the dangerous nonsense that he espouses or whether his posts are mischievous trolling. He did start the thread and others like it, so make your own assessment. It would be insulting for me to call him the T word, so I won't.
I would call the hit and run way of gambling 'a load of b0!!0cks' but with one amusing caveat... this weekend I decided that I might like a £70 treat today. So I set a win goal of turning £50 into £120 (or belay the treat if I went bust). I then went online and took my £50 deposit up to £121 and then onward to £150. It was mathematically stupid but added amusement to the treat.
You see, I don't discount amusement value with such silliness. But to espouse the system as 'the only way to consistently win... 'What a load of ....'

Quote: WatchMeWin

I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

Playing a negative expectation game and saying you play strictly to win is kind of like drinking used toilet water and saying you do it strictly to improve your health.

Quote: sabre

Playing a negative expectation game and saying you play strictly to win is kind of like drinking used toilet water and saying you do it strictly to improve your health.

He only takes sips, Little and often. Also, it keeps him hydrated which is another essential.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Thank you for your reply. I would never play a game where I didn't expect to win. That is just giving money away freely. I guess we all have different perspectives of how to spend money. The entertainment value has its value I suppose for many. I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

How are those questions relevant? Apparently, I wanted to hear how you play the game you are preaching on. Im not saying you are right or wrong, I just wanted to know if you win. Entertainment value is not a bad strategy.

I suppose you made them relevant.

My point is that my, "Style," of play does not greatly differ from your own, with the main difference being whether or not each person believes himself to have a positive expectation. I know that I don't. Ironically, my expectation grows more negative as I am winning simply because I am making more bets in a winning session. Place 6/8's are winning (resolved) and I'm leaving them up, that's another bet to resolve (I look at the House Edge as per resolution, rather than per roll, because I have no intention of taking the bets down).

Anyway, I'm not really paying a whole lot for the entertainment. If you look at a $5 minimum table, it would take a really good hand(s) to run me up into even so much as -$1.00 EV. Most of the time my -EV is well under that as I will have a losing hand before then and quit. In actual dollars and cents, I might lose as much as $27 on a, "Bad hand," (Point 4/5/9/10, 2x Odds, Place 6/8 $6 each, seven-out) but my actual $-EV is extremely low; barely more than twenty-five cents.

I'm also not preaching about anything, Craps is a fixed odds game, every bet on the table is a fixed odds bet. You could look at overall expectation, taking into account mail, points, potential for dealer mistakes...etc...but aside from stuff like that, it's a fixed odds game. Fixed odds games, one way or another, are either fundamentally positive (100%+ VP) or negative (Craps) and cannot be mathematically beaten by way of anything other than a mechanism external to the game itself as the game is meant to be played and according to the rules.

That's really the only difference between us. I don't dispute that with, "Hit & Run," whatever that specifically means to you, that you have a high probability of a winning session. Of course you do. The guy with a million dollars running a seventeen or an eighteen step Martingale (starting at $5) and quitting has a very high probability of winning, too, but that doesn't make it a smart or mathematically sound thing to do. He eventually loses.

The thing to understand is that twenty rolls at fifty different tables/times is the same thing as 1,000 rolls at one table. It literally doesn't matter. With enough time, everyone playing your style would regress to the mean and the mean, in this case, is losing some amount of money. Hit & Run doesn't do anything except delay the inevitable, but fortunately, you may not play enough into the, "Long run," to absolutely guarantee a net lifetime losing result.

Anyway, you look at the players who stay at the table, "Forever," and who have, in your opinion, no chance of winning as a result. Unfortunately, your method of play is no different, you're still staying at the table for the same, "Forever," you're just doing it at different tables.

Quote: Mission146

The thing to understand is that twenty rolls at fifty different tables/times is the same thing as 1,000 rolls at one table. It literally doesn't matter.

NO. It is not.
Oh sure if you look ONLY at the math of "amount wagered" times "house edge" you get the same results. That much is indeed true.

The changed factors are things such as: sobriety, exhaustion, mistakes, distractions, memory, judgment. One marathon session or a few "mini sessions" are mathematically equivalent but people gamble for a variety of reasons, not just the math involved. Most don't even know the math that is involved. That woman I encountered eons ago at The Venetian was astounded to learn it was 7:00am. She had gambled the whole night of her arrival and had absolutely no idea of it. Did she win or lose? I don't know, but I'm sure she was having fun prior to deciding to go to sleep "for the night".

Circumstances like that are different than short sober sessions of maximum alertness. There is no sense of desperation if you are "chipping" (a term from heroin use). It its a marathon session, your feet are sore, you are "well lubricated", you are aware of your bankroll situation, you are probably too drunk to be much fun to be around.

But ofcourse to a mathematician the formula only includes WagerAmount x HouseEdge.= minusSomething.

The guy who is chipping can take a break and go spend some time in his room with his wife.
The marathoner who finally goes up to his room may find his wife has already checked out.
Mathematicians don't factor that into their equations.

Quote: FleaStiff

NO. It is not.
Oh sure if you look ONLY at the math of "amount wagered" times "house edge" you get the same results. That much is indeed true.

The changed factors are things such as: sobriety, exhaustion, mistakes, distractions, memory, judgment. One marathon session or a few "mini sessions" are mathematically equivalent but people gamble for a variety of reasons, not just the math involved. Most don't even know the math that is involved. That woman I encountered eons ago at The Venetian was astounded to learn it was 7:00am. She had gambled the whole night of her arrival and had absolutely no idea of it. Did she win or lose? I don't know, but I'm sure she was having fun prior to deciding to go to sleep "for the night".

I'll grant that point, but I'm speaking specifically to the methods of play that WMW is advocating in favor of. I'm not speaking in terms of external factors, just in terms of fixed odds bets on the table, which we're agreeing on. If you go, "On tilt," or whatever and start making greater bet amounts, then that increases the expected loss. If you start making worse bets, then that increases the expected loss. My point is that Placing 6 twenty times at fifty different tables for $6 (or whatever) is the same as Placing 6 for $6 1,000 times at one table...even though the latter is not really feasible.

Fact is, if WMW trust the PRNG, then he would not even need to play his method in a casino. It would cost less (gas/time) and be more convenient just to do it online. That's not going to happen, though, because the method does not work long term. No method does.

Quote:

Circumstances like that are different than short sober sessions of maximum alertness. There is no sense of desperation if you are "chipping" (a term from heroin use). It its a marathon session, your feet are sore, you are "well lubricated", you are aware of your bankroll situation, you are probably too drunk to be much fun to be around.

Agreed, I'm just talking about the betting options on the table.

Quote:

But ofcourse to a mathematician the formula only includes WagerAmount x HouseEdge.= minusSomething.

The guy who is chipping can take a break and go spend some time in his room with his wife.
The marathoner who finally goes up to his room may find his wife has already checked out.
Mathematicians don't factor that into their equations.

The House Edge is inviolate. I grant that there are many variables from one player to another, many players are individuals who abstain from drinking completely regardless of how long they are playing. It is better to play whilst alert for a wide variety of reasons that go above and beyond the betting options on the table. You can't factor those into a mathematical equation, though.

Either way, the fundamental rule will always be the same: Don't walk to a Craps Table expecting to win, because if you are, then your prior is already out of whack with reality.

There are psychological reasons to believe that your variance will net out after awhile and that you can come close to expected value.

For example, I will ride VP until a big hand comes out and then quit (4D on a DW, a good 4 of a K on a DDB machine, etc). But there are times when the hand never comes before I run out of bankroll, or that to catch up on bankroll requires impossible luck (a royal). That's when I have to learn to get up and walk. I'm good at getting up and walking when the winner hits, but not so good on riding the bad luck.

On table games with bonus bets, I might ride out Pai Gow until I see a SF or higher (I bet Fortune) and then leave. But once again that might not happen in a session.

On craps, I would ride out the losses until a good stretch of wins, but sometimes that just never happens on a cold, desolate night.

Because of my play style, I win most of the time, but when I lose, it is complete (aka all of my planned bankroll, and then some), and it happens enough to where the loss outweighs all of the smaller wins.

For craps, if you are betting PL or place or Don'ts and don't come, there will be streaks where you cannot win, where the 10 in a row of Point dot dot sevens occur and you just have to walk. There are betters who just bet "how they feel" and find that the table is so choppy that you can't win then.

But good bankroll management and planned stop/win/loss goals are great ways to gamble reasonably well, to stay in the casinos, and get enjoyment from gambling.
RFB and free-plays help as well.

Quote: boymimbo

But good bankroll management and planned stop/win/loss goals are great ways to gamble reasonably well, to stay in the casinos, and get enjoyment from gambling. RFB and free-plays help as well.

I can't disagree with that. I've played lots of -EV blackjack and a little very -EV roulette. Sometimes sober and 'in control' and sometimes tired and intoxicated. I've woken up some mornings after a non-sober session and stared silly losses or silly profits in the face. I'd definitely suggest the more sober and 'managed' play is less risky. The discipline to bet small, win small or lose small beats the recklessness of going on tilt and betting stupid. Better to lose x% of a small number than x% of a large number. It's still x%

Quote: OnceDear

There must be greater differences than I thought between US English and English. I implied no such thing.

You have had good luck. Pure and simple. There are metaphorical bullets matey. You can't make it a winning game by spinning the chamber before each pull of the trigger.

Perhaps it is not the barrier between or English, mate, but rather the lack in you ability to grasp the sarcasm in my statement. I did not actually think you were giving me accolades, mate....lol I know you were insulting me, but that is all good. I have thick skin. So , when I return the favor, please have thick skin as well and don't suspend me.

And.... METAPHORICALLY speaking, again, if there are no bullets in the chamber, which you stated, then there is no way of blowing my brains away... METAPHORICALLY.

Now back to the topic at hand... you can play craps any way you like, and I wish you the best... but, maintain, if you stick around on the table, you will lose. Playing the probabilities, discipline, management, realistic expectation will put one in a greater position to be a winner. And ask 100 dealers if they believe there are rhythm and flows to the game, I bet 90% would agree.

See you at the Cage cashing winnings! Good luck.... MATE!

Quote: WatchMeWin

Now back to the topic at hand... you can play craps any way you like, and I wish you the best... but, maintain, if you stick around on the table, you will lose. Playing the probabilities, discipline, management, realistic expectation will put one in a greater position to be a winner. And ask 100 dealers if they believe there are rhythm and flows to the game, I bet 90% would agree.

Of course there are rhythms and flows to the game. That's the beauty of the stupid game. Those streaks in any game where the "improbable" happen are just streaks of bad luck and good luck hitting you and are expected in the game. For me, craps is the quintessential game where luck (and bad luck) streaks emerge that you can attribute to a number of outside influences, including the dice, the shooter, the wife of the shooter, the drink servers, the dealers, the air conditioning, the humidity, the chips, gravity, magnets, bouncy tables, the back wall, the don't players and anything else not mentioned here.

Just talking about it makes me want to get into the car and drive to Reno. Sniff ;}

Edit: Thanks BBB for the edit.

Quote: boymimbo

Sniff ;}

BM, would you please fix that mis-attributed quote?

Quote: OnceDear

BM, would you please fix that mis-attributed quote?

Edited. See above.

Just another bullet escaping day I suppose. I walked up to the craps table and noticed many angry players... cussing and yelling. I knew there was nothing good that was going to come out of that table. So, I just hung around and waited for the table to empty out. As I was waiting, I saw 7 out after 7 out. I took a walk around, grabbed a bite to eat. Talked to a couple of my favorite waitresses. Then proceeded back to the craps table. There were only 5 people there at this point. The dealers told me that once a few of the angry guys left the table, the numbers started to flow. I decided to jump in when the dice went to a seemingly innocent woman with no apparent dark cloud above head. I quickly went 300 per number ( which is 1830 across the board.. 4 n 10 are bought). First number was a 10. Second number was a 5. Next roll , the dice went off the table. So, I went off and took my bets down. Next roll was a 7 out.
I walked away a winner, while others stayed and lost. Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. But knowing who, what, when, where, why, and how cant be taught.

Quote: WatchMeWin

. First number was a 10. Second number was a 5. Next roll , the dice went off the table. So, I went off and took my bets down. Next roll was a 7 out.
I walked away a winner, while others stayed and lost. Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. But knowing who, what, when, where, why, and how cant be taught.

Anecdotes like these drive me crazy.

First number a 10: Odds 1 in 12.
Second number a 5: Odds 1 in 9.
Next roll a 7 out: Odds 1 in 6.

There are plenty of times when dice go off the table and the next roll is actually a different number than 7.

Luck? Yes. Skill? No.

There is no skill in craps. Would you have even told the story if the next number was not a seven? How many times have you not told this story when the next number after dice leave the table is not a seven? I would bet probably 5 out of 6 times. Confirmation bias at its best. Believe what you want to believe.

Next time, if you are so sure, why not throw that $300 + the amount you just won on any seven?
Tell us how you do.

Haven't we gone through this same nonsense with the baccarat and roulette players?