Does anyone here win consistently in craps?

Quote: WatchMeWin

He would not accept the challenge.

He wouldn't? Why is that? Oftentimes the challenger will just make the terms difficult on purpose knowing the challenge/bet won't be accepted as a way to save face.

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.

I'm still up on my original bankroll, taking 5-10K per year, all at $5 bank craps. It's a system I wrote called the Loophole and its absolutely positively from the DONT-PASS line.

Quote: WatchMeWin

I whole heartedly believe that dice rolls are not random and independent of previous rolls. I know 95% of the board are going to say bs to that...

Yeah, 99.9% of all those mathematicians, engineers, programmers with simulations, etc, etc... What the hell would all of them (that make up the 99.9% that say you're crazy) know, am I right?

It DOES take guts and innovation to look the world in the face and know the world is wrong, but it also takes a lot of guts to admit when you're wrong and the world is right. We have mathematical proof that each roll is an independent trial... What evidence do you bring, other than your superstitions, that they are in fact not independent trails?

I once had a thought... What if someone flipped a coin every year until they died (let's say 80) and they saw an overwhelming majority of heads... Like 60/80. Well, then the mathematicians of the world would look at you and say "You're in the short run, you don't have enough trials to get to the long run odds so you could see a variance like this." However, to that person that lived 80 years and flipped 60 heads, that coin is NOT a 50/50. It was biased to the heads side of the coin for their entire life. What it comes down (in the short run) is perspective. To the rest of the world if we went on flipping that coin it would in fact come out to 50/50 in the long run, assuming a fair coin of course... However for that mans LIFE, which for what we know is all we get, the coin WAS NOT a 50/50.

What you should take away from this story is not the fact that you "could" be right. The reality of the story is the coin was NEVER BIASED the entire time, just from the dead guys SINGULAR PERSPECTIVE which was perceived from THE SHORT RUN. So while it's "fun" to think about and play with superstitions and betting patterns that seem to win "frequently" (for now) you must eventually come to the realization that you will lose. It is a mathematical certainty the more you approach the long run and minimize your standard deviations. Either way, even if you plug your ears and close your eyes you will inevitably lose. Math does not require your belief to work.

Quote: rushdl

I'm still up on my original bankroll, taking 5-10K per year, all at $5 bank craps. It's a system I wrote called the Loophole and its absolutely positively from the DONT-PASS line.

Best be careful where this line of thought takes you: see rule 10:

"Betting systems: Methods of varying bet size, based on previous wins and losses, not only can't overcome the house edge, they can't even dent it. However, if you're one of the many mathematically ignorant gamblers who think adding up negative numbers can result in a positive one, please keep your comments restricted to the betting systems sty."

You're wallowing in the wrong "sty."

The system that I use still comes out occasionally positive after 2000 rolls. I created an excel table that uses random numbers and wagers how I would. Again, that's occasionally positive, and often enough for me to take notice. Whether it would count as consistently winning, I'm too scared to look deep enough haha. I like to think it's a net positive system.

Quote: Romes

We have mathematical proof that each roll is an independent trial...
...
Math does not require your belief to work.

We also have physical proof. Roulette wheel clocking leads to predictable results, under the right circumstances, because there is a physical basis for it. It's been tested and repeated not only in lab settings but in casino settings ("Eudaemonic Pie," etc.) We also know that dice sliding leads to predictable results, and that the whip shot is predictable against a flat backboard, but those aren't consistently repeatable in a casino. Moreover, we also know that generic throwing on a generic table is *not* predictable. Physicists have studied this and concluded that at the level of imprecision in a casino dice game, the dynamical system of throwing dice onto a craps table "approximates the random process." (M. Kapitaniak, et al., “The three-dimensional dynamics of the die throw,” CHAOS 22, 047504 (2012))

In other words, to continue your thought, physics does not require his belief either. Denying the physics of dice throwing is like denying the physics of a round Earth or of heliocentricity. It might make instinctive sense to a child who is innocently naive about the world, but childlike naivete in an adult is not so innocent. It's the same sort of naivete that leads to anti-science denial in other guises (anti-vaccine, climate change denial, insisting that abortions cause breast cancer, etc.) It's also been the source of thousands of people spending money on bogus "guaranteed winning" gambling systems for roulette, or taking "precision dice shooting" seminars.

If you can consistently win using some method or system at a game like baccarat or craps......why in the hell are you only winning $500? There are thousands and thousands of these tables across the USA. Liquidate as many assets as you can, put together a bankroll, and start making at least $1M a year.


Or does your BS system only work with $5 chips?

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.

Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Quote: WatchMeWin

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.

Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Las Vegas. I see you mentioned something about visiting during March. We can agree on a 3rd party to hold the money and verify everything.

Please give me an estimate of what levels you are interested in betting and how much I need to cover.

Quote: AxelWolf

Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Las Vegas. I see you mentioned something about visiting during March. We can agree on a 3rd party to hold the money and verify everything.

Please give me an estimate of what levels you are interested in betting and how much I need to cover.

We need an independent third party to observe and report all this for the enjoyment of the rest of us. Should be 'effin hilarious, if it ever actually happens...