MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 276
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:39:52 PM permalink
I keep records of my gambling wins and losses, every casino, every time.

My craps play hasn't been too profitable of late, but WHOA, my slots play has me slightly ahead over the past couple of years.

It's just luck, aka variance.

None of us who play negative expectation casino games are in fact the Golden Child (possible AP exception, but to them it ain't gambling or a game, it's just a job: ugh).

FWIW, I agree that discipline and knowledge of the game are helpful, especially over time.
"What, me worry?"
Calder
Calder
Joined: Mar 26, 2010
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 434
December 27th, 2016 at 8:43:26 PM permalink
Ah, V, but is it Deep Knowledge?
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:47:55 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Most people are looking to make 500% on their investment. Greed kills and pigs get slaughtered.

You have to wonder, especially for a 49.3-49.3 game like craps, why in the world people would even fantasize about reaping 500%. Fire bet, anyone?
But the variance does occur with frightening regularity both up and down. One big key, as you pointed out, is leaving the table at that certain point when you're ahead and avoiding the next swing down. All the while, not looking back.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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December 27th, 2016 at 9:37:31 PM permalink
I have a friend who has played dice for most of his life. I seen him run up two big scores. The first was about 150k which he lost in about a month afterwards. Five years later he ran up a half a million after an odd session where he bought in for 3k and ran it up to 75k then dumped it to zero... Next he went to the apartment and grabbed his case 10k and ran it up to just under half a million which took about 12-14 hours of inebriated play. It seems that once you start playing with those 5000 dollar white chips it is hard to go back to red and green checks! Needless to say about 10 weeks later he was busted and I mean flat out busted! It was fun to watch him move from black checks to betting 2k flat with 10k and 20k behind in several spots! Now it seems that he is on an endless journey to repeat the past :(

If you want to win at dice you either get on a crew that is cheating or you go around and find weak dealers who like to Over Pay.

The other way to win at dice is to just not play!
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 276
  • Posts: 5723
December 27th, 2016 at 10:33:59 PM permalink
Or own a casino.

Ah, what fools these mortals be!
"What, me worry?"
Zcore13
Zcore13 
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 2607
December 28th, 2016 at 4:16:21 AM permalink
WatchMeWin,

Make sure you are well rested. It increases your chance to win by about 0.32%

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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December 28th, 2016 at 5:04:29 AM permalink
I don't know about this 0.32 percent precision, but I try to cram as much gambling into a trip as possible so well rested and entirely sober are not states likely to be encountered in festive Vegas. And not encouraged by the casino though sometimes encouraged by the craps crew.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 632
December 28th, 2016 at 5:25:37 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

WatchMeWin,

Make sure you are well rested. It increases your chance to win by about 0.32%

ZCore13



I do not drink and always stay rested. An inebriated and tired mind certainly affect play.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 28th, 2016 at 6:28:07 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.



The nice forum members have been politely beating around the bush. No one here believes you consistently win at craps. You can say it 100 times all in different ways, but no one will believe you. Unless you find an overpaying dealer, comps that exceed expected negative EV, or some other cheating mechanism, you will not consistently win at craps.

I play a negative EV game- Pai Gow Poker. Yesterday it was definitely positive EV, the dealer was pathetic and couldn't see a straight if you counted it out for him. He freely admitted he sucked at the game and doesn't understand why they would assign him to it! I had bad luck (negative variance) and still ended up $11. My buddy had average luck and ended up $200. I don't play craps enough to know if there are enough similar situations to make it + EV, but I would guess that is very rare.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 632
December 28th, 2016 at 6:37:37 AM permalink
I do. It doesnt matter if you believe it or not. My pocket is happy. I picked up another 500 last night... how did you do?

Where do you play soo poo?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'

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