Does anyone here win consistently in craps?

Quote: MathExtremist

We also have physical proof. Roulette wheel clocking leads to predictable results, under the right circumstances, because there is a physical basis for it. It's been tested and repeated not only in lab settings but in casino settings ("Eudaemonic Pie," etc.) We also know that dice sliding leads to predictable results, and that the whip shot is predictable against a flat backboard, but those aren't consistently repeatable in a casino. Moreover, we also know that generic throwing on a generic table is *not* predictable. Physicists have studied this and concluded that at the level of imprecision in a casino dice game, the dynamical system of throwing dice onto a craps table "approximates the random process." (M. Kapitaniak, et al., “The three-dimensional dynamics of the die throw,” CHAOS 22, 047504 (2012))

In other words, to continue your thought, physics does not require his belief either. Denying the physics of dice throwing is like denying the physics of a round Earth or of heliocentricity. It might make instinctive sense to a child who is innocently naive about the world, but childlike naivete in an adult is not so innocent. It's the same sort of naivete that leads to anti-science denial in other guises (anti-vaccine, climate change denial, insisting that abortions cause breast cancer, etc.) It's also been the source of thousands of people spending money on bogus "guaranteed winning" gambling systems for roulette, or taking "precision dice shooting" seminars.

I love the way you so eloquently word things whilst striking point after point of (seemingly) redundant facts to the OP who clearly doesn't believe the world is round =).

tldr; I enjoy reading your posts.

thousand bucks a week every single week.

Quote: ontariodealer

thousand bucks a week every single week.

Yeah, but you DEAL craps.

That gives you a real leg up.

As a craps dealer, you KNOW in advance when the box will insert the biased dice.

Plus since you are at the table all day, you KNOW when the table is hot.

Armed with valuable knowledge such as this, you probably have (or should have) confederates waiting in the wings at the casino, ready to jump into the craps game at your bidding and bet heavily.

dont forget I get to adjust the magnets under the table.

Quote: ontariodealer

dont forget I get to adjust the magnets under the table.

I knew Fallsview had magnets.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Discipline, along with a deep knowledge and strategy of the game, shadowed by realistic expectations, can bring consistent winnings.

I like to bet all the hard ways, hi lo's, basically anything in the middle of the felt!! I mean, at worst you're getting like 7-1 when one of those hit!!! The most important thing though is before you put any money down, is i do a Polynesian haka war dance to the dealers and pit, I want them to know I mean business!!!

Quote: AxelWolf

Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Las Vegas. I see you mentioned something about visiting during March. We can agree on a 3rd party to hold the money and verify everything.

Please give me an estimate of what levels you are interested in betting and how much I need to cover.

I posted this to other thread as well...

Regarding your proposition. I am all for it. I will look over what you proposed and make my proposals and discuss on mutual terms as we get closer to my trip. I have respect for you and the folks on this site. Im not looking for bad blood. Regardless of the outcome, I hope we can have a drink, a few laughs, and an enjoyable time.

Are you a professional gambler?

Quote: WatchMeWin

Are you a professional gambler?

This is a myth, kinda like Bigfoot, the Easter Bunny, Kris Kringle... etc etc... they do not exist.

On the other hand ... I heard it said long ago... it's not gambling when you win all the time.

Money won is sweeter than money earned.

Quote: MrV

Money won is sweeter than money earned.

I think it's probably relative. I'd much rather have a 500k startup exit than a 50k AP win. And both appear equivalently likely...

Quote: MrV

Money won is sweeter than money earned.

"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

--Eddie Felson (The Color of Money 1986)

My question to you is what do you consider long term? I am a wrong player. I do not bet anything but don't pass or don't come and 90% or more of the time I lay full odds. I've been keeping track closely to my play for exactly 84 days of playing from January 25, 2017 to today 5/31/17. I have 67 wins 17 loses and a plus $13995. I have no set formula. I do go with a bank of $3000 and try to make two to three plays in a day with each play I try to win $300 or more. On the win days it might be as little as $250 or as big as $1600 but generally it falls around $900. When I lose it is going to be $3000. I DO NOT chase the money on my losing days. I go home and tomorrow is another day. So my question since you and many others have made the statement that over the long term craps is unwinnable is what exactly is long term? Is it days of play? Is it a year? Is it 5 years?

The Long Term, or more frequently referred to as The Long Run defines a time where your EV +2SD is still negative. As you're playing a negative EV game, over time (number of bets) your negative EV (Expected Value) will be so great that it will be mathematically impossible for you to be down.

Example:

EV = (NumBets*AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)

1 DP bet of $10... HE is 1.36%... EV = (1*10)*(-.0136) = -$.14... so for every $10 DP bet you make, you can expect to lose 14 cents in "the long run." Of course there's variance in the game where you could be lucky or unlucky in the short term... just like while a coin flip is a 50/50 you could see 10 heads flipped in a row... but over the course of 1 million flips it'll balance out towards the 50/50. So we have things called Standard Deviations which takes the variance of the game in to account and gives you a "range" with a % of confidence your results will be in that range. 1SD is 68% confidence, 2SD is 95% confidence and probably used the most to project things (in my opinion). 3SD even is 99%.

SD of the DP in craps is .99 according to the wizard (https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/).

OriginalSD = .99*AvgBet, so in our case AvgBet is $10.... OriginalSD = 9.9

SD(x DP bets) = Sqrt(NumBets)*OriginalSD

SO in our example above... Let's say you place 3,000 DP bets at $10:

EV(3,000 bets) = (3,000 * 10)*(-.0136) = -$408
SD(3,000 bets) = Sqrt(3,000) * 9.9 = $542.25.... 2SD = $1,084.49

***NOTE: THIS DOES NOT TAKE IN TO ACCOUNT YOUR ODDS, SINCE THOSE HAVE NO PLAYER/HOUSE EDGE. THIS JUST LOOKS AT YOUR BETS THAT HAVE A HOUSE EDGE WHICH YOU ARE FORCED TO MAKE IN ORDER TO MAKE ODDS BETS.

So after 3,000 DP bets of $10, with 95% confidence, you'd expect to lose $408+/- $1,084.49... So you can see it's quite easy to be "UP" after 3,000 rolls just due to simple luck. You've played 84 sessions... in those sessions you play for 3 hours. Average number of rolls per hour let's say 90 (from this thread). So you play 270 rolls per day, but how many of them are new DP bets? Average number of rolls per shooter is 8.5 according to the wizard (https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/probability/). So 270/8.5 = 31.76 bets per session... times 84 sessions = 2,668 bets...

So you see, it's quite plausible you could be up due to your odds bets... but in "the long run" (not sure for craps but a safe bet is like a couple hundred thousands bets) you're going to lose. Mathematically guaranteed.

First, I don't gamble for 3 hours so based on your comments I have done less than what you have said making my argument worse. Normally win or lose I am rarely there for more than 1 hour. There have been times I've lost $3000 in less than 15 minutes. There have been many more times however where I've won my goal in less than 15 minutes (15 minutes table time).

Second, great formulas! My question is are these formulas based on the same bet? There will come a point when I'm down where I will make an all in or big bet when I'm down $1000 or more of my $3000 bank. Yesterday for example I was down $1100. I bet $300 against a 10 comes up so I lay $1600. I win the bet and I'm back even. However even after that win I had lost on more rolls than I had won but I won the most important bet. So I understand on the same bet over a course of many thousands of rolls I'm going to lose basically because of the 7 or 11 beating me but my bets early are perhaps big for my bank a small bet is $25 lay $150 regardless of number and average bet is $50 lay $300 regardless of number. Once I've reached my goal I am up and off the table. So I don't believe I'm giving the casino what they want and that is time (at least not on a single visit)

I guess to be a simpleton I'll ask a yes or no question to you. Are you saying after (blank amount of visits or rolls you fill in the bank) that there is no way I can be winning? I'm curious for you to give me based on what I've told you a number based on my visits when you believe I will be down. This is going to be a goal for me to say my time playing has been worth it. I'm not just talking about being up, I'm talking about being up and having it worth the time I spent going. After all why spent all this time just to spin my wheels in the long run.

Thank You so much for your analysis I appreciate the imput!

Yes, the EV and SD equations that I wrote out with words can be modified for however you see fit. You can do them for one bet where NumBets = 1, or you can average them over the course of your session where you'll need to estimate how many bets you made, the average house edge (if you're not always betting the same bet - though PL and Come are same HE) and you'll need to know your "average" bet. So if you bet $10 99 times and $1,000 1 time, then your average bet would jump up due to that outlier... 1010/100 = $101 average bet.

To answer your yes/no question.... YES, after X amount of bets (adding up to X amount of time in a casino) it will be mathematically impossible for you to be up. HOWEVER, if you're basing the massive majority of your action on your odds bets (which I'm sure you are) then you could add enough 0% HE variance to leave room for "luck." Even after a long enough time (aka enough bets) that would still be impossible to be up, but the more variance you add to the game the longer you have to have a chance to be lucky and still be up, if that makes sense.

For example, if you were JUST playing the $10 DP/DC with NO odds:

EV(1 million bets) = (1,000,000*10)*(.0136) = -$136,000
SD(1 million bets) = Sqrt(1,000,000) * 9.9 = $9,900... 2SD = $19,800

So after ONE MILLION Don't Pass / Don't Come bets (no odds) it would be mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for you to be up... You could expect to be DOWN -$136,000 +/- ~$20k... So even if you were lucky, the best you could do is -$136,000 + $20k = -$116,000.

What your odds bets do is add variance, which is going to make your SD's larger. So instead of +/- $20k it might be something like +/- $200,000... THEN if you were really lucky you COULD still be up because -$136,000 + $200,000 = +$64,000.

***Do note: Variance works both ways and you could just as equally be more unlucky and be -$136,000 - $200,000 = -$336,000... though with the variance at least this way you have a 'chance' of being up, mathematically speaking.

This is why the "tighter" casinos have LESS odds. They want to tighten that range so you'll be a loser over time for sure. This is why the house wins in the long run on games they have an edge on... Because you can't mathematically win. Which is why AP'ing is so nice because you can flip those odds on them and if you play long enough, you can't mathematically lose =).

wow, old thread

anyway, doing simulations with wincraps, and staying totally away from any other betting than pass/dp with odds, I have found it takes many millions of rolls to see the long run kick in to the point that losing over it that long run is near certainty. This can definitely mean more rolls than many, probably most, players would see in a lifetime.

And the higher the odds multiple, the more it becomes anybody's guess how you might do in your lifetime.

Having said all that, you can also say that "you just do not want to be" one of the guys who wind up running bad over that lifetime.

And this last is pure superstition, but I subscribe to it as "the way of the world" ... if you really need the money, you are not going to 'chosen' as one of the winners. Count on it.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Agree GWAE.... Thats why you have to hit and run.. Its the only way!

It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die

IAOBS...ATYD

tom p

Quote: WatchMeWin

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to...

an excellent challenge, watchme!

you might want to be a little careful with it, though, depending upon the number of trials...there are "martingale-like" systems that win over 90% of the time...of course when the sh*t hits the fan, you might get all of your losses and then some back...heck you could even be in the chips big-time after but one trial...

were i to take up your challenge, it would neverthelessbe a martingale that i would employ.

isn't variance and luck fun?

tom p

Quote: Romes

...So you see, it's quite plausible you could be up due to your odds bets... but in "the long run" (not sure for craps but a safe bet is like a couple hundred thousands bets) you're going to lose. Mathematically guaranteed.

Not Correct.

at least with the numbers you are using ("couple hundred thousands bets")

with sufficiently low -ev bets probability mathematics guarantees that some -- very few -- will win.

the lamentably long absent goatcabin ran some sims several years back (o how i wish he were around to verify what follows as it is strictly from potentially faulty memory! the gist of it is accurate however)....he simulated 10,000 players rolling a million rolls, each betting only the pass line with double odds, a -ev --correct me if i am wrong -- of about .8%.

something just under 5% were still ahead after a million rolls...a similar simulation betting only the 6 (or 8, i forget which), what? a negative ev of about 1.52%...after [b/]a million rolls i believe it was just under 2% were still ahead

however the HE does need to be sufficiently low...the same 10,000 players betting only the hard 6 (or 8, again i forget which) for a mil yielded ZERO ahead after the million rolls.

"theoretically" the math guarantees that all lose only at infinity.

tom p

Quote: betwthelines

however the HE does need to be sufficiently low...the same 10,000 players betting only the hard 6 (or 8, again i forget which) for a mil yielded ZERO ahead after the million rolls.

tom p

I just recently played my final craps game ever. I've given up the past time, but I had played for over 20+ years. Maybe once in all my years, I saw a hot hard 6/8 streak where a guy hit the hard ways three times in a row.

There's almost never a hot streak.

It hits rarely.

And when it does hit, it's not like the payout is enormous. Sure it pays 9-1 (or 7-1), but no one just bets one of the hard numbers, they bet all four. So when one does hit, it's more like a 2-1 pay out. And then you're always tossing out additional chips to put back up the number that just fell to an easy roll.

Does anyone here consistently play the hard ways bets?

Can someone explain why you play it?

Forgetting the high HE for a second, I do not understand why people play the hard ways bet. All gambling has a negative expectation, so a nongambler may ask the same question of any game. But with other bets on the craps table, there's enough frequency of reward, in the form of streaks and subsequent large payout, to create a Pavlovian reaction. I just don't see it in the hardways, which is just consistent punishment with minimal reward.

But almost everyone bets the hardways.

The horn bet makes even less sense to me.

The lottery effect. Low investment, big payout. Works even better on the All, Tall, Small bet with that 175 to 1 payout (even 150) There is a locals casino in Biloxi where they got that plus $3 pass line, early mornings. Every gang banger with $37 to his name is camped out trying to get rich. The nice quiet table I once knew at 4 AM, is no more. So I go to the Hard Rock. $10 min, no ATS. Nice. Quiet!

Quote: WatchMeWin

.... who here consistently wins in craps?.

The posters here are players and often casino employees, but I don't think there are any casino owners here. The owners are the consistent winners at craps. Players can claim to have the ability to walk away from a winning streak but that never avoids the losing streaks.

Quote: klimate10

I just recently played my final craps game ever. I've given up the past time, but I had played for over 20+ years.

What?? Your most recent trip report was your LAST trip report? Are you transitioning to some other game, perhaps? Baccarat? Sports betting? Nothing??

Hopefully, you will continue to post on WoV. I very much appreciate your well-written, thoughtful contributions.

Thanks so much for the information! But I'm a hard headed guy and I like most of the members on this board are going to try to defy mathematical equations that say it can't be done. I can't say what I am in my lifetime betting ( wrong on the crap table) but If I have lost it hasn't been much. All I can say for sure is what I am since Jan 25, 2017 where I've went to a casino 88 days and I show 70 wins 18 loses with a plus $13805 and that is after deducting expenses like fuel and tolls. I'm just hoping to be writing you Romes 5 years from now with a much larger cash win total and about an 82 or so win percentage :). Again thanks so much for your information!

Haha, well the best of luck (you'll need it) and I do hope to hear that. As mentioned with large odds bets your variance will be high enough that it 'could' be possible to be up some time from now (though more and more unlikely as the number of bets goes up). IF you are a winner (due to odds variance) I still think it VERY unlikely to have some kind of 80+ percent win ratio, unless you're martingaling and leaving after one win or something.

Quote: klimate10

I just recently played my final craps game ever. I've given up the past time, but I had played for over 20+ years. Maybe once in all my years, I saw a hot hard 6/8 streak where a guy hit the hard ways three times in a row.

There's almost never a hot streak.

It hits rarely.

And when it does hit, it's not like the payout is enormous. Sure it pays 9-1 (or 7-1), but no one just bets one of the hard numbers, they bet all four. So when one does hit, it's more like a 2-1 pay out. And then you're always tossing out additional chips to put back up the number that just fell to an easy roll.

Does anyone here consistently play the hard ways bets?

Can someone explain why you play it?

Forgetting the high HE for a second, I do not understand why people play the hard ways bet. All gambling has a negative expectation, so a nongambler may ask the same question of any game. But with other bets on the craps table, there's enough frequency of reward, in the form of streaks and subsequent large payout, to create a Pavlovian reaction. I just don't see it in the hardways, which is just consistent punishment with minimal reward.

But almost everyone bets the hardways.

The horn bet makes even less sense to me.

i am not sure why peoples bet the hardways and the other middle bets other than every once in a while they hit one or they hit several even and have a real hot session.

these are remembered...losses not so much. in the "long term" habitual middle bettors are almost always losers...very, very, very few regular bettors are ahead.

the simulations i showed above indicated some players ahead after even a million rolls...BUT one must make sufficiently low HE bets...betting pass line with double odds or better...even a few were ahead betting the 6 (or 8, i forget which) after a mil...hard 8 ZERO ahead.

tom p

I count a win as what I did in a day and no it has never been a single bet. Do I stay for 8 hours NO and I never will. I'm not there for fun, I'm there to do a job. Again the way I play I'm going to win or lose in less than an hour total time on the table. Also I've heard of martingaling but can't say I know exactly what it is because I've never cared to study and so called system. I learned Don't betting from my late uncle and incorporated things as I played over the years that worked best for me. And with all due respect to you or anyone on this board but right now after winning today at Yonkers I'm 73-18 plus $16273 (this is a total after taking out money for fuel and tolls). That is an 80% win total. Is 91 trips enough evidence? I would say not even close. But whether you believe me or not that is what my record is since Jan 25, 2017.

Quote: autocarry

I count a win as what I did in a day and no it has never been a single bet. Do I stay for 8 hours NO and I never will. I'm not there for fun, I'm there to do a job. Again the way I play I'm going to win or lose in less than an hour total time on the table. Also I've heard of martingaling but can't say I know exactly what it is because I've never cared to study and so called system. I learned Don't betting from my late uncle and incorporated things as I played over the years that worked best for me. And with all due respect to you or anyone on this board but right now after winning today at Yonkers I'm 73-18 plus $16273 (this is a total after taking out money for fuel and tolls). That is an 80% win total. Is 91 trips enough evidence? I would say not even close. But whether you believe me or not that is what my record is since Jan 25, 2017.

LOL

Quote: autocarry

I'm 73-18 plus $16273 ... whether you believe me or not...

All anyone can say is "it's possible and you've been lucky", while the usually unseen comment is that it is rude and unprovable to express doubt.

No one cares how you did it. You yourself say you have contempt for a betting system.

Quote: autocarry

...Also I've heard of martingaling but can't say I know exactly what it is because I've never cared to study and so called system. I learned Don't betting from my late uncle and incorporated things as I played over the years that worked best for me. And with all due respect to you or anyone on this board but right now after winning today at Yonkers I'm 73-18 plus $16273 (this is a total after taking out money for fuel and tolls). That is an 80% win total. Is 91 trips enough evidence? I would say not even close. But whether you believe me or not that is what my record is since Jan 25, 2017.

congratulations on your luck this year and your success...personally i have no reason to doubt you.

you say that you do not know exactly what a martingale is yet your win percentage of 80% suggests, wittingly or not, some adaptation of it...win percentages of over 90% are not uncommon employing martingale versions (apparently...unless ALL reports are BS, lol) and i have seen as high as 98% alleged employing a certain "system."

plus if you are sticking only to dp or dc laying as much odds as you can afford (ie tough craps), you are cutting the house edge to the bone.

continued good luck.

tom p

Quote: autocarry

I count a win as what I did in a day and no it has never been a single bet. Do I stay for 8 hours NO and I never will. I'm not there for fun, I'm there to do a job. Again the way I play I'm going to win or lose in less than an hour total time on the table. Also I've heard of martingaling but can't say I know exactly what it is because I've never cared to study and so called system. I learned Don't betting from my late uncle and incorporated things as I played over the years that worked best for me. And with all due respect to you or anyone on this board but right now after winning today at Yonkers I'm 73-18 plus $16273 (this is a total after taking out money for fuel and tolls). That is an 80% win total. Is 91 trips enough evidence? I would say not even close. But whether you believe me or not that is what my record is since Jan 25, 2017.

Do you actually keep accurate logs? I'd imagine your log is like:

1) win $100
2) win $250
3) win $125
4) lose $900
5) win $200

That's an 80% win ratio, but a net loss of 225.

Also, I want to say you explained how you played previously... So like a DC with a DP and max odds at 100x odds? I'd love for you to outline a typical, very average session to understand a bit more of the mathematics of your average session.

If you return to the table you are probably a winner on past sessions.
However it is true that 'winning session" and 'net financial result' can be certainly different.

Quote: Romes

like a DC with a DP and max odds at 100x odds? I'd love for you to outline a typical, very average session to understand a bit more of the mathematics of your average session.

at 100x odds, if he does that, no one can say where he might wind up in a lifetime, it very easily could be quite a bit ahead. My experimentation with simulation has shown this. The action on the line bets becomes almost meaningless.

but it also is true that without a huge bankroll the odds of going bust *at some point* are monumental too. And, again, you just would not want to be the guy who ran bad - just no, mentally you'd never recover at that odds multiple.

Somebody somewhere has won overall at Craps. No matter how skewed, every probability distribution has its outliers at both the positive and negative extremes. Over sufficiently numerous events the tendency for each of us is to regress towards the mean, which will be the expected values of our playing styles multiplied by our dollar volumes, but that rare somebody is the lucky soul who embodies the positive outlier which evaded the regression and ended in the black.

The caveat is to not think that his lucky result is the smart result. Smart must be measured in advance of the event rather than after the result. Make only smart bets in order to give yourself the best chance to become a positive outlier. Smart means minimal House Edge.

This thread seeks a winning system. For over 200 years, since Craps began in New Orleans, hopeful punters have experimented with countless systems. Alas, the Red Queen of Mathematics has never relented.

Just for fun, here are a few Craps mathematical tidbits:

P ( Event ) means the probability of that event.

P ( Natural Seven ) = 0.166666667

P ( Out Seven ) = 0.395959596

P ( Game Ends with a Seven ) = 0.562626263

The journey to understanding Craps begins with the single step of appreciating the overwhelmingly dominant role of Seven.

P ( Pass ) = 0.492929293

P ( Don't Pass ) = 0.493636364

If you were to make a bet of $1980 on Pass, then your expected return is $1952.00

If you were to make a bet of $1980 on Don't Pass, then your expected return is $1953.00.

the problem with people saying that they have a method of winning at craps in the long run is that nobody has ever proved it and if it is possible then it definitely could be proved. one of my favorite quotes from Christopher Hitchens: "that which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

Yes, I keep accurate logs. And yes similar to the way you suggested. So yes if the scenario was what you have listed it would be 80% win pct with losing -225. But I'll give you a more realistic look at what my log would look like

1. win $825
2. win $1225
3. Lose $3000
4. Win $665
5. Win 1025

That would be 80% with a win of $740. Also a win I listed at $825 would have actually been a win of $850 or $860. I live in NJ and most of my gambling takes place in Yonkers, NY. So I deduct $15 for the toll and $5 or so for gas since its only 12 miles from my work but I'll make it more like $30 off my win total to compensate for the days I've lost.

I for whatever reason and I don't have an explanation other than I'm more confident in Yonkers than in AC or Sands my first bet is $50 lay $300 (Yonkers bubble machines are 3,4,5 times odds). On my first what I call session if I win that bet regardless of number would be $50 lay $300 on second bet and a $25 lay $150 on the dont come bar. If I'm lucky and win those bets I am up and off that machine and I've completed what I call play 1. However today and many other days to when I lose the first bet I don't have a set pattern of what I would do on my next play. Today after losing first bet and being down $350 I bet $200 and laid $180 (not even close to full odds) against an 8 and won. So now I'm back even. A couple of more bets and I ended up $400 on play#1 for me. So I get up cash my tickets (in Yonkers if you win $625 or more you get a Jackpot ticket and have to cash it at cashier) put my $400 that I won away and restart my next round with my normal bankroll of $3000. I personally like changing dice tables for lack of a better word because Yonkers again are made up of machines. There are 3 different areas of Yonkers that have different machines for those areas. My next play today was $75 lay $450 against a 4 I win another $300 and I call that one bet session 2. Now I'm up $700. So for me once I've gotten by the first 2 sessions as a winner I am going to walk out of Yonkers a winner no matter what because my 3rd play is a one time bet. Today it was $50 lay $300 against a 5 and I lose. Making my win total $350 but I list it as $325 in my memos because I take out toll and fuel.

Some days I may go back to Yonkers later in the day and play again. But if I won $325 earlier and lost $3000 later I would record it as a loss for the daay of $2675. If I won both times saying the second time I won $800(after taking out another toll and misc expense) I would list the day as a win of $1125.

Lets say I'm down over $1000 of my $3000 bankroll I may make one bet for say $300 lay the balance against whatever or I may make a bet that is half or so of my remaining balance to try to get back in the game. There have been times I was down to $500 or $600 and went all in and won. Then did the same thing on the following bet and won and been not even but in more manageable shape. I have no set formula of what I'm going to do especially when I'm down. The one thing I do know is I am not going to make small bets to try to get back in the game I'm going to make big bets. If I win great if I lose I accept the loss and go home. Tomorrow is another day and I don't worry about what I won or lost the previous day. Again generally when I lose it is going to be the $3000 and its going to take 3 or 4 days to get the money I lost previously back.

I think we all know if we are going to be successful gambling the most important thing to do is accept loses and not to chase money. If we do that we have a good portion of what we need to do to be successful completed.

So basically that is what I do. It seems to be working right now. I NEVER make any proposition bets or make any bets other than don't come/dont come bar bets. I don't gamble for enjoyment I gamble for money.

a "don't come bar bet" you must be pretty new to craps.

Quote: autocarryI

think we all know if we are going to be successful gambling the most important thing to do is accept loses and not to chase money. If we do that we have a good portion of what we need to do to be successful completed.

no we don't all know that. it takes a helluva lot more than that to win at gambling in the long run. it's way, way harder than that. if you have truly won during the amount of time you have played good for you. but if you think your method can overcome a negative expectancy in a house game you're fooling yourself. people that know know that your record so far, whatever it may be, is totally irrelevant. it doesn't prove anything at all.

I'm just trying to figure out what the long run is? True my record is what it is right now 74-18 +16598. But I am well aware of the fact that I risk $3000 every time I gamble which makes my record worthless if I lost 6 times in a row and be 74-24 and down 1402. Obviously the only thing that matters in the end is are you up or down. Many on this board say you can't win in the long run but no one knows exactly when that long run starts. I am certainly not secure yet because I haven't accomplished winning enough money to offset any kind of reasonable losing streak. On this current time I've tracked my daily betting I did have a 3 day losing streak totaling 9000. As well as a couple 2 days in a row losing streak. I can say based on betting this way for a long time, well before I actually put pen to paper, that I've never had any run were I lost more than 3 or 4 days in a row. But again when I win it will never be $3000. It can be as little as $250 and on a real good day it might be $1600.

The one thing I do seem to get on this board which doesn't surprise me is skepticism. It is amazing that anyone even gambles if there is mathematically no chance to win. Perhaps there isn't any chance to win but some of the non believers are also jealous too because they are losing and can't believe someone is winning.

Yeah pretty new to craps. I'm 51 years old and played since 18 I'm new!

Quote: autocarry

Yeah pretty new to craps. I'm 51 years old and played since 18 I'm new!

At $3,000 only need to win 5% of you buy-in to have earned over $1 million in that many years. Well done

I was responding to someone who asked if I was a rookie at craps and the answer was no. Have I played the way I've described for all these years absolutely not I only found a rhythm (not a system) over the past 2 to 3 years. Before that I was a right player betting all the numbers and even betting the sucker proposition bets and losing a lot of money. Spent most of my life worrying about comped rooms and food wasn't smart enough to realize I was losing a hell of a lot more than they were giving me. Then I just watched an uncle who was a wrong player play. It was never exciting as a right player. In fact with the two numbers made he wouldn't bet again until a miss out I thought was just boring as hell but at the end of the day he always seemed to be making a small pay to accompany his salary at a real job. So I just incorporated his focus and patience and made adjustments to configure to what I was comfortable and have been playing that way for a while now. Still I doubt I'm anywhere close to getting back the money I lost playing right as well as blackjack.

Quote: autocarry

It is amazing that anyone even gambles if there is mathematically no chance to win.[in the long run]

there's nothing at all amazing about it. the vast majority of gamblers gamble for the thrill of it not because they're devoted to winning. many of them gamble because they're lonely and it means somebody is paying attention to them; tallying up their comp card and every now and then giving them a free something. in the game of blackjack many casinos have cut the payout on drawing a blackjack to 6/5 making it all but impossible to win in the long run no matter what the skill level. yet there are still thousands flocking to the tables. your idea that the gamblers are headed to the tables because they really believe they are going to be long term winners is laughable. there IS a mathematical probability to win in the long run for those willing to study and work very hard and exploit a very few vulnerabilities within casinos. but no chance for those looking for easy money.

You don't think there is anyone who believes their going to win? Yes, most play for fun to enjoy a day or weekend, go to a show etc. But there are plenty of people who believe that their system is going to make them money. Your on this site, you are obviously someone who understands gambling probably on every level your telling me that you have never met anyone that thinks they can win long term? I've met guys who believe they can win at blackjack, craps, sports, poker, etc and they have been trying for years some tried so hard that they're sitting in prison because they had to steal to keep their habits going, so yes there are those who believe they can win long term. Right now I think I'm one of them!

Quote: autocarry

I've met guys who believe they can win ... Right now I think I'm one of them!

I know people who gamble and win. The father of a good friend of mine was a long-time professional gambler (now retired) in Vegas. He only bet on sports, and only games with people. If you asked him what he thought about a team that was about to play, he could spout off a verbal report about the whole team -- He knew whose wrist had healed and whose ankle was still bad. Everything about every player. It was a full-time job, but he did it well and lived a comfortable life with money to spare.

I'm an optimist (and if you aren't an optimist, you probably should not be in a casino). If I was on my way to spear Moby Dick with a toothpick, I'd be bringing my tartar sauce with me. Including my comps, I believe I hold the casinos pretty close to even, notwithstanding the variance-induced swings we all encounter over the long run. I follow game and table energy and have toolsets that allow me to do that. (But, don't suggest THAT as a betting strategy on WoV, because you'll have more folks jumping on you than suggesting you have a "rhythm (not a system)."

autocarry, I applaud folks like you who present facts related to their gambling success. Like you, they often ask a specific question about some general aspect of gaming (for example, "What do folks consider long term?"), and then get pummeled by a small army who ignore the question and instead rant about how such folks clearly misunderstand almost every aspect of gambling.

Whether by rhythm, design, or good luck, I'm delighted to read you are a winner (so far) in your battle with the casinos. Ummm... did you ever get a satisfactory answer to your original question?

Thank you for detailing your session... was still a fun read (always like hearing about gambling sessions =P). So he's playing Bubble Craps with 3-4-5 odds and NOT even taking full odds? Then yes, that will be a lifetime losing bet. Either increase your odds bets or stop playing before you give it all back.

Quote: autocarry

You don't think there is anyone who believes their going to win? your telling me that you have never met anyone that thinks they can win long term?

you didn't read my post. or you deliberately chose to restate it inaccurately. i'll try one more time and then i'm out of here. here is the quote from my previous post:


" there IS a mathematical probability to win in the long run for those willing to study and work very hard and exploit a very few vulnerabilities within casinos. but no chance for those looking for easy money."




you won easily. the real meaning of your posts if you read between the lines are to suggest to new players that they too are likely to win easily just like you. bad, bad news.

No I haven't. But there are some very sharp people on this board! I doubt that the opinions will be the same because its more about an opinion than a formula. I don't have an answer to the question. I know right now I'm not close to calling it successful because I'm not up enough money to say I am. I would guess its going to be a number in the neighborhood of $75000 before I can say its working. A few days of bad luck and all this investment of time will turn into a waste of time.

If we toss a coin 100 times and your up 75 to my 25 does that mean your going to be a winner if we keep flipping infinite amount of flips? I'm pretty sure you can agree we will come out even infinitely. Craps or any other game against the Casino is the same thing. So how does one win. Pretty simple if your flipping a coin that you know will come up heads 55 times out of 100 every time. This analogy is crude but effective in my mind at least. I'm surprised you've been playing dice so long with such a small record. I guess you weren't keeping score till just recently. I believe you can beat dice but not the way your suggesting. The best way to win at dice is to cheat but your trying to tell us your beating dice on the level through some sort of hooey will power strategy.