Does anyone here win consistently in craps?
Quote: FleaStiffI've not found where he used that term, but it is indeed a term that would raise suspicions although I've seen it in cheapie craps 'textbooks'.
Its "Don't Pass" and there is a parenthetical "bar the twelve" comment added pictorially.
Same thing of course with Don't Pass
On these: 7 is a loser, 2 and 3 are winners but the 'twelve' is a 'push' and can be taken down or left riding at player's option.
I have heard people with about a year's experience still misusing the term. Each of the two that I am thinking of were part of the "Terrible's Crowd" and one of the incidents actually took place at the old Terribles. I can't really hold one of those two players in much contempt... I was losing heavily and he tossed my companion two red chips to let her keep playing. Loud, vulgar, ignorant, a bit inebriated but at least generous.
page 9,7th post down.
It's ok, there's help for that.....Quote: autocarryI've played 101 days of craps since 1/25/17 that in itself is more than most of this board has played in the last few years!
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/
Quote: FleaStiffI've not found where he used that term, but it is indeed a term that would raise suspicions although I've seen it in cheapie craps 'textbooks'...
Its "Don't Pass" and there is a parenthetical "bar the twelve" comment added pictorially.
Same thing of course with Don't Pass...
what IN tf is the big issue?!
sheesh.
sure the bet is technically don't pass or don't come but virtually every layout in the country shows "don't pass bar 12 (or 2)" ...you experienced craps language police are way over the top with this.
it is TOTALLY rational and understandable to say "don't pass bar 12" when it is right there in front of you and you "experienced" elitists have seen it a million times...
you deem saying it indicates a wetness behind the ears but have been proven wrong in that by replies right on this thread as well as by others saying it that you know to have experience.
i realize that some of you are typing just to hear yourself type---hell, that's pretty much all i do myself---but...
...jeezuz, get real.
tom p
am interested in seeing the continuation and reporting of his journey, and I do wish him all the luck & success he can find, however it plays out
(and I probably spent way to much time reading it all, but enjoyed it, I am a tormented soul, and eternal optimist in spirit, trapped in a mathematical body/mind, but I always root for people to be successful in their chosen path, very least, wish them to be happy trying it)
the large high win %, (80% area) is probably a result of his large catch up bets when down, this would pull the outcomes towards a parley or martingale strategy over time
Quote: charlestfullerI've taken down enough data to show a pretty good track record over the past 6 months. Leave with more than I came with about 75% of the time.
frankly i do not believe that the question "does anyone here win consistently at craps?" is the right question.
charles' post here is illustrative of why winning consistently is not all that uncommon.
so i am told/have read, there are certain martingale-based strategies where one wins over 90% of the time (i have seen as high as 99%)...one could not deny that that is winning "consistently"...this is of course different than actually winning at craps and in fairness many authors of such claims do go on to correctly clarify that this is not only not the same as winning at craps but also, to the nub of it, that their strategy is no hiccup in random and are far from "beating the game" - and why.
a better question then might be simply "are you winning at craps"?
of course except for a tiny minority who keep actual, accurate track, any answers would be under the heavy thumb of "gamblers' perception", which while only very rarely dishonest, is almost always inaccurate.
tom p
Quote: Romes...So you see, it's quite plausible you could be up due to your odds bets... but in "the long run" (not sure for craps but a safe bet is like a couple hundred thousands bets) you're going to lose. Mathematically guaranteed.
Inaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.
Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"
your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.
simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.
the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.
tom p
Quote: Romes...So after ONE MILLION Don't Pass / Don't Come bets (no odds) it would be mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for you to be up...
impossible? nonsense.
setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"
it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.
tom p
What is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.Quote: betwthelinesit is TOTALLY rational and understandable
The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.
Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.
I wrote elsewhere that it certainly seems possible there would be a number of well heeled players somewhere playing Craps frequently, daily even, without setting dice or cheating, for decades at 10x or higher free odds who would be ahead. However, I say they do not actually exist because no one can tolerate the daunting swings. They go on to other games and ways of playing, usually dreaming up ways of hedging to stay sane .
