Why you should bet the don't pass
If you understand the game and every last detail about it, there's no compelling reason to bet the pass line over the don't pass line or vice versa.
HOWEVER
Most people don't understand the game all that well. Especially the psychological aspects of the game. And for this reason, I am going to make the argument that if you want to prevent yourself from busting out, the don't pass line is a better approach.
I think this matters less for folks with patience enough to only bet on one number at a time instead of betting the come bet and other bets. But I wanted to get a discussion going about the psychology of having a better chance of staying in the game if you bet the don't pass instead of the pass.
http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=9031
I can't say that if every blackjack table were converted to a craps table if that would continue to be the case. Blackjack has a lot less overhead in terms of square footage, personnel, and training dealers to be able to operate the game without losing money due to errors.
Part of what I am saying is that casinos tend to get bigger bets by encouraging players to parlay their winnings, ESPECIALLY on the place bets.
I have begun to really pull back my comments and just watch, and I really see dealers having players press their place bets so much so that nobody has a chance to win with those terrible compound edges on the 4, 5, 9, and 10. But even avoiding those subjects, just taking bets that are unlikely to win (bet bigger and bigger odds expecting to get extra-ordinarily lucky) it seems to set people up to fail.
People worry too much about the bet amount and not enough about the chance to win, effectively, is what I am thinking. Or when they want a better chance to win, they add in one-roll bet to ensure that they will get paid on the 2, 3, 11, or 12 instead of laying odds on a don't.
On the other hand, with the pass line, you can get 5 PSO's in a row, have a shooter hit 2 points, and you're back to even (or just about). But with the don'ts.....if the shooter hits 2 or 3 points, it's going to take 5+ seven out's to recoup (even though the seven out is more likely than hitting the point).
I don't like that psychological part of the don't pass.
I like
*that a player is less prone to demoralizing losing streaks
*how easy it is with 3x4x5x knowing what to put up for odds
*how the free odds are active bets all the time without having to say anything during the come-out
*having multiple DC bets rather than multiple Come bets up, for those times going for broke
but I don't like
*giving up the dice as the shooter after a 7-out.
*the temptation to switch back and forth trying to guess which way to go; it is stronger, and deadly
*missing out on the fun playing it dark when a shooter makes several hands... and you take a big hit, but it's not just about the money but the fun too
*feeling a rookie dealer has to be watched carefully for errors
Quote:*giving up the dice as the shooter after a 7-out.
I saw a guy shooting the dice from the dark-side for about 20 minutes the other day, just by himself (well, 2 others), but no action on the table really other than the line bets. He'd get 3-4 don't-come bets out there with some odds, hit the point, then rolled a 7 on the come out and won all his DC's. Then established a point, traveled 3-4 more DC's, hit the point, 7 on come-out to win all his DC's, rinse wash repeat.
I thought it was pretty cool, since usually when a don't-shooter wins his bets, he loses the dice. But this guy was shooting 7's and winning his DC's during the come out roll (but of course, losing his don't-pass). He wasn't some dice-controller or anything like that. Just hit the right numbers at the right times.
Quote: AhighSo I've made this point to many people in the casino, but I've never really brought it up in an online forum, so I figured now is as good of a time as any.
If you understand the game and every last detail about it, there's no compelling reason to bet the pass line over the don't pass line or vice versa.
HOWEVER
Most people don't understand the game all that well. Especially the psychological aspects of the game. And for this reason, I am going to make the argument that if you want to prevent yourself from busting out, the don't pass line is a better approach.
I think this matters less for folks with patience enough to only bet on one number at a time instead of betting the come bet and other bets. But I wanted to get a discussion going about the psychology of having a better chance of staying in the game if you bet the don't pass instead of the pass.
I never ever played craps untill I found the Wiz's odds site.
Once reading the odds site, I am strictly a dark sider and I really enjoy playing craps in Vegas.
Surprised how few craps players play the dark side.
I allways smile and really enjoy the company of other darksiders at a craps table but its actually somewhat rare.
Its all about the odds in my opinion playing any game in Vegas.
I also love throwing the dice. Its the only time I consider playing pass. Right now if not throwing the dice, strictly dark, if throwing, I find my self about half the time playing pass. Too me gambling is about fun and its fun to throw the dice.
If you feel youe just HAVE to join the 'fun' of the DO bettors, then Place the 6/8 and cheer with the rest !!
Here are some 'quotes' from this site with the numbers proving the DON't betting:
========================================================================
1 in 9 will 7out on the 2nd roll (11.11%)
Slightly more than 1 in 9 will 7out on the 3rd roll (11.7%)
That makes about 22.8%.
So out of 1 million shooters (random AND DIs) over 228,000 will 7out by the 3rd roll.
Slightly more than 1 in 10 will 7out on the 4th roll (10.5%)
So, about 33.3% will 7out by the 4th roll.
50% of all shooters will 7out by the 6th roll.
========================================================================
You should know that about 60% of all shooters never make one point before they 7 out.
It is the odds on favorite and should be expected.
of course over any 10 shooter orbit about 1 in 8 will have 6 or more in a row not hitting one point.
No wonder why I have seen many high rollers (the smart craps players - some say the only smart players)
laying the point. They win the most times and the most money.
========================================================================
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10510-iron-cross-and-hedges/3/
Those that do not know the math or believe the math of what is expected by each shooter, mostly live by
their own superstitions or from unreliable facts from the memory of past events.
The 3rd roll by any shooter has the highest probability to 7out on. (relative column)
The second highest probability is the 2nd roll.
1 out of 3 shooters go out by their 4th roll
Half go out by their 6th roll
Craps Shooter Length of a Shooters Hand
rolls or more 1 in or less rolls relative 1 in
3 0.88888888888888 1.1 11.1111111111% 2 0.111111111 9.0
4 0.77211934156378 1.3 22.7880658436% 3 0.116769547 8.6
5 0.66735253772290 1.5 33.2647462277% 4 0.104766804 9.5
6 0.57612890882995 1.7 42.3871091170% 5 0.091223629 11.0
7 0.49721087042117 2.0 50.2789129579% 6 0.078918038 12.7
8 0.42904410662521 2.3 57.0955893375% 7 0.068166764 14.7
9 0.37019134854117 2.7 62.9808651459% 8 0.058852758 17.0
10 0.31939069865160 3.1 68.0609301348% 9 0.050800650 19.7
========================================================================
Quote: jkluv750% of all shooters will 7out by the 6th roll. [etc, etc]
You seem to be making a case for not paying even money on darkside lay bets. Oh, wait, they thought of that!
There are a couple reasons why I usually avoid playing the don't.
1. My bankroll. It's too small to be laying odds if I'm not doing so hot from the start.
2.The entertainment factor. Honestly, it's just not fun playing the DP. I hate not being able to cheer with everyone when they win and everyone being happy when everyone else is upset when they lose. I'm usually playing with friends who don't understand the game like I do. I've played the DP while they have played the PL and it was pretty awkward to say the least.
Bottom line is the PL offers way more entertainment value to me.
The one thing i am not there for is to be intertained!!!!!!!
If i wanted to be intertained i will go to the movie.
I play craps for one reason one reason only....it allows me to shoot the dice....
I have a friend like Ahigh... the guy gets about $7000 a month in retirement, and says i get that
every month, so it does not matter if i lose it, i will get it back next month.
He plays 3 days a week and if he wins he leaves and then comes back and loses it or takes a $200
wins and as he says runs it through a $10 machine.... what the hell it is all intertainment.
Ahigh, you did not install all your equipment, and throw hundreds of hours to be intertained by a casino.
dicesetter
Scenario: Point is already marked, and nobody else is betting come bets:
Bet a $6 DC bet. The first roll of this bet, you are aligned, not maligned with the table. You want the winner especially if it's a 4 or 10. And aces or ace-deuce would be awesome! If someone is betting the field and rooting for hi-lo-yo-ace-deuce or whatever terrible edge bet to get paid off some crap, you can root with him on the DC.
You can root for the winner.
On the comeout, root for the winner seven when you are behind the number. You don't have to lay odds at all. And you can always just bet bigger on the DC.
The trick to risking less on the don't side is betting a little more on the DC and just forget the odds until you're ready to risk $30 or more at a time. $0.02 per roll per nickel on the felt is a savings when you do odds, but it's still cheaper than placing the 4, 5, 9, 10 if you're on the do side when you're doing nickels at a time. You still root for the number on the first roll, and wait for the comeout roll to root for the seven.
People who don't like you betting the DC just need to be educated that you're not betting against them unless they are betting the come.
Quote: dicesitterEntertained
The one thing i am not there for is to be intertained!!!!!!!
If i wanted to be intertained i will go to the movie.
I play craps for one reason one reason only....it allows me to shoot the dice....
I have a friend like Ahigh... the guy gets about $7000 a month in retirement, and says i get that
every month, so it does not matter if i lose it, i will get it back next month.
He plays 3 days a week and if he wins he leaves and then comes back and loses it or takes a $200
wins and as he says runs it through a $10 machine.... what the hell it is all intertainment.
Ahigh, you did not install all your equipment, and throw hundreds of hours to be intertained by a casino.
dicesetter
I like knowing what I'm doing when I'm being entertained.
than losing at the craps table.
Funny thing is i never was good at typing, so i dont worry about and yet
i got to this age and a very confortable life style and no one has ever made
a point of it except people that cant win at the craps table.
I just type what i think, if i thought this was another masters thesis i would
look at the spell check, but I understand the need you have to pick at people to feel
superior. Well i can't say for sure i understand it because i never felt the need to
pick at people.
At any rate if my typing errors make you feel better, go for it.
Dicesetter
Quote: AhighYou should try it, but if you have a small bankroll and want to try it without lessening the karma factor consider this on a $5 table.
Scenario: Point is already marked, and nobody else is betting come bets:
Bet a $6 DC bet. The first roll of this bet, you are aligned, not maligned with the table. You want the winner especially if it's a 4 or 10. And aces or ace-deuce would be awesome! If someone is betting the field and rooting for hi-lo-yo-ace-deuce or whatever terrible edge bet to get paid off some crap, you can root with him on the DC.
You can root for the winner.
On the comeout, root for the winner seven when you are behind the number. You don't have to lay odds at all. And you can always just bet bigger on the DC.
The trick to risking less on the don't side is betting a little more on the DC and just forget the odds until you're ready to risk $30 or more at a time. $0.02 per roll per nickel on the felt is a savings when you do odds, but it's still cheaper than placing the 4, 5, 9, 10 if you're on the do side when you're doing nickels at a time. You still root for the number on the first roll, and wait for the comeout roll to root for the seven.
People who don't like you betting the DC just need to be educated that you're not betting against them unless they are betting the come.
Very good advice, Ahigh, and the reason I play the DC instead of the DP.
For what it's worth, having a table full of dark players is an absolute hoot.
Other than that, I reason I play the dark is that I win more often than I lose. And I find winning money very entertaining.
Darth
Quote: befamous7
2.The entertainment factor. Honestly, it's just not fun playing the DP. I hate not being able to cheer with everyone when they win and everyone being happy when everyone else is upset when they lose.
Sure you can. No pass or don't pass bet. Say a point of 4 is established. Do a continuous DC bet, and lay max odds. Hope the next rolls are 5,6,8,9,10 and then a winner 4. Then when the shooter hits a 7 on the next come out roll.....everyone is a winner!
:-P
Darth
Quote: darthvaderThat is the nice subtle benefit of the DC. It often somewhat aligns your interests with the shooter's.
Darth
If you look independently for various factors, dark side versus light side is less important towards chance to win than is greed/expectation of profit levels in terms of your bets.
If you are on the light side and continuous come with max odds, you are possibly getting greedy.
Same thing on the dark side, and it's not as greedy as sticking to a single number (the point). And every now and then it all goes your way too.
Quote: MrVNick the Greek, a Don't bettor who lost a staggering amount at craps over his lifetime is reported to have said, at the conclusion of his gambling days: "If I could do it all over again, I wouldn't lay odds."
I'm a dont bettor.
I used to lay odds. In fact I learned how to exactly place the lay odds chips, bridge the chips or dont bridge.
Now I never lay odds.
I figure if I survive the come out roll, the odds are now in my favor and want to keep it like that.
1... if you lay against the point after it is determined, you dont have to worry about the come out.
2... if you lay a point or even the point and another number you have some advantages if you pay attention.
Tuesday night two of us played on a tub and the results were interesting
we each had 11 hands...
on 9 of the hands i paid one pass line winner or more
Doug had 1 pass line winner or more on 4 of his hands
Another guy had 6 out of 10
A kid had half of his 6 hands
another kid had no pass line winners.
of the 9 hands i had a pass winner, i had 6 hands with 2 or more
of the 4 hands Doug had a pass winner he had 2 hands of 2 or more
The kid had all three hands of 2 or more
The other guy had 3 out of 6
The other kid had none.
The number seen the least was a 5.
Now we all know what happened on the last hand does not indicate
anything for sure, but it is the best information you have. So if you layed
against the point on all after the first point, you really had the odds in
your favor, and if you laid against the point and also against the 5, you
would have had a good night.
I did very well betting on myself, but truth be told, you would have done
well the other way.
dicesetter
I also had multiple black-chip action ($200 don't pass with odds) at South Point this evening with random shots. There I mostly broke even (up about $25). Not sure why I went to South Point except that I wanted to see if they would let me shoot when I am just flinging them and betting the don't pass. Of course no troubles at all from the crew. I didn't bet every roll, though, and I missed some good dark-side potentials sitting on the sidelines.
Funny thing, Archie Karras said he wished he had taken MORE odds. (During his epic run, Jack Binion limited him to a certain minimum flat bet with limited odds.)Quote: MrVNick the Greek, a Don't bettor who lost a staggering amount at craps over his lifetime is reported to have said, at the conclusion of his gambling days: "If I could do it all over again, I wouldn't lay odds."
Quote: dicesitterThere are a couple of things to consider
1... if you lay against the point after it is determined, you dont have to worry about the come out.
2... if you lay a point or even the point and another number you have some advantages if you pay attention.
Tuesday night two of us played on a tub and the results were interesting
we each had 11 hands...
on 9 of the hands i paid one pass line winner or more
Doug had 1 pass line winner or more on 4 of his hands
Another guy had 6 out of 10
A kid had half of his 6 hands
another kid had no pass line winners.
of the 9 hands i had a pass winner, i had 6 hands with 2 or more
of the 4 hands Doug had a pass winner he had 2 hands of 2 or more
The kid had all three hands of 2 or more
The other guy had 3 out of 6
The other kid had none.
The number seen the least was a 5.
Now we all know what happened on the last hand does not indicate
anything for sure, but it is the best information you have. So if you layed
against the point on all after the first point, you really had the odds in
your favor, and if you laid against the point and also against the 5, you
would have had a good night.
I did very well betting on myself, but truth be told, you would have done
well the other way.
dicesetter
Quote: Wikipedia
It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
This is just a guess, but you may benefit from comprehension here.
If you are stuck on winning instead of having fun, you should know about large numbers and repeat play.
Same thing with measuring the amount of metal in "heads" versus the 'tails' side of the coin. Exploiting the infintesimal differences for some presumed mathematical advantage is foolish, not fun.Quote: AhighIf you are stuck on winning instead of having fun, you should know about large numbers and repeat play.
Quote: FleaStiffSame thing with measuring the amount of metal in "heads" versus the 'tails' side of the coin. Exploiting the infintesimal differences for some presumed mathematical advantage is foolish, not fun.
To some, that is fun.
Pure nonsense.......
Craps is a lot of fun, i play everyday. But when i get to the casino, my goal is to pay attention
and not just act like a fool and give them my money.
As far as math of the game and repeat play is concerned, it has been said you play in the long run,
that is not really accurate, you play in a series of very short runs. If you look at every roll that is
longer than average, you will see a signature number or just call it a number that comes up more than
others. That number can last for that shooter all night, can last for a table all night.
I indicated the play Tuesday night. When we got to table the stick person said the hard 4 & 10's
have been hot all day. The three hours we played i cant tell you how many hard 10's and 4's
we saw. there was only 1 .... 1/3
In the long run you wont see that, in the long run you wont see where that one guy did not make
a single pass line winner all night. In the short run if you were betting the hard 4 & 10 or layed
againt the point on that shooter, you did well.
Ahigh there is a stock, KOG ... that has done well, went from around 3-$15.... once is got to $12.50
it was up & down.. the long run indicated it went from $12.50-$15.00 for a $2500 win if you held 1000
shares.......the short run provided almost an $800 a day win if you bet with the daily variance for 6 months
in a row..
a series of short runs gave you $800x180, the long run $2500.
Understanding short runs will almost always do better
Dicesetter
Quote:Funny thing, Archie Karras said he wished he had taken MORE odds. (During his epic run, Jack Binion limited him to a certain minimum flat bet with limited odds.)
At the highest flat bet level ($300K!!), Jack would not let him bet ANY odds along with that flat bet.
So it might be more correct to say "he wished he'd been permitted to take ANY odds."
Of course, odds were permitted on line bets of lower denomination, but Jack always had a ceiling amount he wouldn't let Archie exceed.
Archie and Jack: what a great story.
Quote: RSOne thing I don't like about the don't-pass is if you lose a couple bets, it's going to take more than the same amount of bets to win [at least when you lay odds].
On the other hand, with the pass line, you can get 5 PSO's in a row, have a shooter hit 2 points, and you're back to even (or just about). But with the don'ts.....if the shooter hits 2 or 3 points, it's going to take 5+ seven out's to recoup (even though the seven out is more likely than hitting the point).
If you bet $5 on the pass line with 20x odds and encounter 5 PSO's in a row, you just lost $525.
No way you're gonna recoup your losses if a shooter hits 2 points in a row unless you take more odds or place other bets on the table.
Assuming you keep betting $5 on the pass line and take 20x odds...
If the shooter hits the 4 or 10 twice, you only win back $410.
If the shooter hits the 6 or 8 twice, you only win back $250.
Recently I've been playing at ice cold tables where at least 80% of the shooters seven out before making a single point. I don't understand why most people refuse to bet on the don't even when the entire table is getting killed by seven out after seven out... reminds me of stubborn baccarat players who bet only on banker and get crushed when a long player streak suddenly appears.
Not if you keep your wits about you and tamp down the greed factor.Quote: spadeknightto me its better to play the dont side but if you never play the do side then the time will eventually come when you get eaten alive by the wangdoodle.
I went to Twin River in Rhode Island last week to play craps & came out ahead in the end. It was a $10 table with 10x odds. I made a Don't Pass bet on every come-out roll then lay odds depending on the point (10x odds on 4 & 10, then 5x odds on 5 & 9, then 1x odds on 6 & 8).
I spent the first few hours recording my Don't Pass outcomes in a little notebook & just now got around to reviewing the results. It shouldn't be a surprise that I won more decisions than I lost on my 4 & 10 bets and 5 & 9 bets. I lost more decisions than I won on the 6 & 8.
This is more of a question about bankroll preservation than the house edge, but would it behoove a DarkSide player to wave off a Don't bet if the point becomes 6 or 8, and instead move it to Place the 6 or 8 instead? If it hits, then am I not flipping my losing record on the 6 & 8 into a winning one? Doesn't it make sense to root for the three most commonly rolled numbers? I'm just trying to figure out a way to not be scared when the point is 6 or 8 and I know I now have a good chance of losing that bet (sure, odds favor the 7, but then they favor 6 / 8 next!)
Obviously it's mathematically silly to wave off a Don't bet as soon as you made it past the hardest part, but I just hate losing that 6 & 8 on the DarkSide.
Anyone else get nervous about 6 & 8? Is placing the 6 & 8 instead helpful?
Thanks.
Dan
Quote: wrongwaybostonLongtime lurker but first post, be nice...
I went to Twin River in Rhode Island last week to play craps & came out ahead in the end. It was a $10 table with 10x odds. I made a Don't Pass bet on every come-out roll then lay odds depending on the point (10x odds on 4 & 10, then 5x odds on 5 & 9, then 1x odds on 6 & 8).
I spent the first few hours recording my Don't Pass outcomes in a little notebook & just now got around to reviewing the results. It shouldn't be a surprise that I won more decisions than I lost on my 4 & 10 bets and 5 & 9 bets. I lost more decisions than I won on the 6 & 8.
This is more of a question about bankroll preservation than the house edge, but would it behoove a DarkSide player to wave off a Don't bet if the point becomes 6 or 8, and instead move it to Place the 6 or 8 instead? If it hits, then am I not flipping my losing record on the 6 & 8 into a winning one? Doesn't it make sense to root for the three most commonly rolled numbers? I'm just trying to figure out a way to not be scared when the point is 6 or 8 and I know I now have a good chance of losing that bet (sure, odds favor the 7, but then they favor 6 / 8 next!)
Obviously it's mathematically silly to wave off a Don't bet as soon as you made it past the hardest part, but I just hate losing that 6 & 8 on the DarkSide.
Anyone else get nervous about 6 & 8? Is placing the 6 & 8 instead helpful?
Thanks.
Dan
Welcome to the forum, wrongway!
I am NOT an expert. Either way, each craps bet is independent and has a house edge, right? (Except odds behind). So, I think if you bet dp to start, lay the 4-5-9-10, and place the 6-8, you're making both a series of bets that work for you, and all low-HE bets. I don't see anything silly about your plan at all, since you're allowed to pick up your dp bet at any point. JMHO.
Quote: wrongwayboston
Anyone else get nervous about 6 & 8? Is placing the 6 & 8 instead helpful?
Thanks.
Dan
you go from odds on your side to odds against your side. Wrong way, Mr. Boston!
It's pure selective memory that makes you think you lose more than you win, unless you are going by the variance of one or two sessions [even then you are probably over-stating it]
Quote: AhighSo I've made this point to many people in the casino, but I've never really brought it up in an online forum, so I figured now is as good of a time as any.
If you understand the game and every last detail about it, there's no compelling reason to bet the pass line over the don't pass line or vice versa.
HOWEVER
Most people don't understand the game all that well. Especially the psychological aspects of the game. And for this reason, I am going to make the argument that if you want to prevent yourself from busting out, the don't pass line is a better approach.
I think this matters less for folks with patience enough to only bet on one number at a time instead of betting the come bet and other bets. But I wanted to get a discussion going about the psychology of having a better chance of staying in the game if you bet the don't pass instead of the pass.
Here's something similar I wrote:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/19669-dont-pass-is-better-than-pass-heres-why/
and yes, it has to do w/the psychology
Quote: terapinedQuote: MrVNick the Greek, a Don't bettor who lost a staggering amount at craps over his lifetime is reported to have said, at the conclusion of his gambling days: "If I could do it all over again, I wouldn't lay odds."
I'm a dont bettor.
I used to lay odds. In fact I learned how to exactly place the lay odds chips, bridge the chips or dont bridge.
Now I never lay odds.
I figure if I survive the come out roll, the odds are now in my favor and want to keep it like that.
This is a common misconception, in my view. I have read other posters saying that, after a point is established, they now have a positive expectation and don't want to "dilute" it by laying odds, which have a zero expectation. This sounds like it makes sense, but think about it like this.
$10 DP bet has gone behind the 4. Now the ev is +$3.33 and advantage is .333. If you lay $20 odds, the combined ev is still $3.33, but the advantage is .111. However, suppose instead of laying odds you bet that $20 on DP; now, the ev (counting the $3.33) is $3.05 and the advantage is .102. IOW, if you don't lay odds and put that money on the DP line, you are subjecting it to the .140 house advantage.
As a general rule, the more of your money you put on the flat bet, the higher your expected loss.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: odiousgambitThings about the Darkside [I've listed these before]:
I like
*that a player is less prone to demoralizing losing streaks
Why do you think that?
The probability of winning a DP bet is almost exactly the same as for a pass bet, so why should one be more subject to streaks than the other?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinWhy do you think that?
The probability of winning a DP bet is almost exactly the same as for a pass bet, so why should one be more subject to streaks than the other?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
ummm, good point, but I typically am thinking about the free odds bet when I am pondering winning or losing at Craps. So what I mean is, once you place your free odds bet rightside, you can really get a streak of losing those - of course, when they win, you win more than you bet. But I forget that often and those streaks can be demoralizing. Maybe it's just me.
I tend to be a Craps player that dismisses mentally the action that is resolved immediately, in other words I tend to shrug when I win or lose by 7-winner, 11-winner, or by craps rolled. This perception that all the action is in the free odds gets very real for *anybody* at 10x or so odds I think LOL.
Quote: odiousgambitummm, good point, but I typically am thinking about the free odds bet when I am pondering winning or losing at Craps. So what I mean is, once you place your free odds bet rightside, you can really get a streak of losing those - of course, when they win, you win more than you bet. But I forget that often and those streaks can be demoralizing. Maybe it's just me.
Here is a post I did back in 2010, replying to someone who referred to the opposite skews of pass and DP odds (+.46 and -.46 for one bet):
That is true for one bet; however, when you make multiple bets the skew disappears pretty fast, because the more bets you make the more likely the W-L will approach the expected.
A few years ago I ran a couple of simulations using WinCraps (www.cloudcitysoftware.com). I did sessions of 60 line bets, taking/laying double odds. The graphs of the outcomes looked very similar, and their skews were low, .11 and .15.
As far as volatility goes, the fact that you have to lay the long end of the odds on the DP means that there's a slightly greater risk of busting early, since you have more money at risk. But, here again, on the DP odds you're more likely to win than lose, so this effect diminishes quickly as you make more bets.
Skew and volatility is line betting with odds comes more from progressive betting than right/wrong.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinSkew and volatility is line betting with odds comes more from progressive betting than right/wrong.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
OK, trying to learn.
I pretty much know it is often superstition, but I don't fight it too hard if it is harmless [since it doesnt matter too much if a guy is arightside player or a darkside player].
Quote: odiousgambitOK, trying to learn.
I pretty much know it is often superstition, but I don't fight it too hard if it is harmless [since it doesnt matter too much if a guy is arightside player or a darkside player].
I'm not arguing against betting the dark side, but I disagree that a player "should" bet it, as if it's somehow "better". As you say, "it doesn't matter too much..."
The last couple of times I played at at Cache Creek ("dice-point-at-card" system), I waited for a point to be established, then bet $5 DC. According to my bankroll (starting with $200), I laid odds like this:
150 < BR < 250 : lay 10, 9, 6 (single)
250 < BR < 150 : lay 20, 15, 12 (double)
300 < BR < 100 : lay 30 (3, 4, 5X)
375 <= BR walk
As you can see, I start at single odds and move to double when I'm $50 ahead or behind, to max if $100 ahead or behind. If $100 behind, I'm going to try to come back, and if I get even I might quit there. The $200 is there to gamble; I could afford it then. BTW, I had to remind the dealer to pay my DC and odds a few times; they tend to overlook those bets.
I would usual play for 1 1/2 - 2 hours
I don't recall my exact results, but I won some the first time and was about even the second time.
I wrote a WinCraps Pro auto-bet file to simulate this play, using 200 rolls as a time limit. For 10,000 sessions, the bust rate was 6.6%, ahead 49.44%, win $50 or more about 18% and the win goal 4.2%.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinHere is a post I did back in 2010, replying to someone who referred to the opposite skews of pass and DP odds (+.46 and -.46 for one bet):
That is true for one bet; however, when you make multiple bets the skew disappears pretty fast, because the more bets you make the more likely the W-L will approach the expected.
A few years ago I ran a couple of simulations using WinCraps (www.cloudcitysoftware.com). I did sessions of 60 line bets, taking/laying double odds. The graphs of the outcomes looked very similar, and their skews were low, .11 and .15.
As far as volatility goes, the fact that you have to lay the long end of the odds on the DP means that there's a slightly greater risk of busting early, since you have more money at risk. But, here again, on the DP odds you're more likely to win than lose, so this effect diminishes quickly as you make more bets.
Here's how skew gets "diluted" when you make more bets. Let's look at just an odds bets laid on the DP/DC on a 4 or 10.
1 bet
bet result ways
20 10 3
20 -20 6
expectation is zero, skew is -1.32
2 bets
bet result ways
40 20 4
40 -10 4 (probability 2/9, 2 ways for this outcome, WL, LW
40 -40 1
expectation is zero, skew is -.50
3 bets
bet result ways
60 30 8
60 0 12 (prob. 4/27, 3 ways for this outcome, WWL, WLW, LWW)
60 -30 6 (prob. 2/27, 3 ways for this outcome, LLW, WLL, LWL)
60 -60 1
expectation is zero, skew is -.41
etc., etc.
The more bets you make, the more different outcomes are possible, and the extreme ones (like losing all three bets) less likely.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
The last few years of playing on the do side, I would bet 4 place numbers but still the 7 out always hurts, even after 1 or 2 wins.
Now I bet $ 100 on the dp with single odds, followed by 3 dc bets of $ 100 with single odds.
The key now, is I am not going to let the shooter beat me on more than 1 number.
If I lose 1 dc number, I move the lay bets to place bets for $ 102 each.
Now, on a 7 out, I break even and when the shooter rolls any of my dc bets, I win on the place bet and lose on the flat dc bet.
However, remember, 1 bet is the most I will lose and a net of 1, 2, 3 or 4 bets is what I will win on a 7 out.
Those are excellent odds.
Furthermore, if the shooter rolls a come out 7 or 11, I stop betting and wait for a 7 out.
If the shooter rolls an 11 on a dc bet, I stop betting and wait for a 7 out.
Losing 1 bet at a time on the dc, is gut wrenching and sometimes worse than a 7 out betting 4 place bets which is why I will not replace the lost dc bet with another one.
Oh, and by the way, when I drink, I lose; so do not drink.
This strategy requires a lot of discipline and patience.
Finally, switch tables if you lose 3 passes in a row, including come out 7s.
As far as how you play, if it entertains you, fine; I think you might as well admit a lot of that is following superstition, such as switching from a cold table. Playing Craps, I follow a lot of superstitions too, but I freely admit that is what they are.
If there was anything I would particularly object to in how you play, it is to ever take down a Don't bet that becomes a point to resolve. That practice is mathematically unsound and in those cases the superstitions need to go out the window.
Seeing a 'trend' is all fine and dandy but that next roll may end it or continue it.
After that... just hope you are lucky.
as to your question of playing time, what is your definition of occasionally or a lot? i want to play more but my business obligations take up a lot of my time. i would like to play once a week locally, atlantic city every month and i cruise a few times a year.
what stories do you want to know? do i make $ 10,000 every time i play; no? my goal is to make $ 1,000 to $ 2,000 each time i play. however, as you know, there are times when a table does not go one's way and it is no different for me, which is why i change tables if i lose 3 don't pass bets in a row, which includes a come out 7 or 11, and i forgot to add that if i lose 3 tables in a row, i quit for the day.
i may have confused you with the 20 years, as i have been playing craps for 20 years, not this new strategy.
playing craps is not for entertainment purposes; i play to win and winning is more fun than losing.
no moves, i make, are based on superstition; they are basic odds and preventing big losses. also, i never mentioned switching from a cold table. if a table is cold, i remain at that table.
i agree with you on taking down a don't bet, as the odds are in our favor, but i have lost too much money keeping all the bets on the table, including the single odds, when a shooter is hitting one number after another.
remember, this strategy will profit greatly on a cold table when there is string of 7 outs, such as a 2 and out, 3 and out and of course the grand slam of 4 and out. those are not bad odds.
finally, and again, i play with no superstitions, no emotion, just as a robot.
thank you for the comments.
you are really reaching, in my opinion, when you mention waitresses, dealer tips, a misplay or a sneeze, erasing an edge.
i play based on the flow of the game and leave accordingly.
your trend comment makes perfect sense; however, not on the don't side. one roll, will not end a trend, unless it is the third loss on a don't pass, which is when i leave a table.
i for one, do not believe in luck. i believe in discipline and patience with a great strategy.
