SACR
SACR
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July 7th, 2012 at 9:16:29 PM permalink
Howdy!! I'm new here and am very impressed with this site.

Not sure if the Iron Cross is considered a system, but if it is, please feel free to move it over to the Betting Systems board. Since it is a method of betting in craps, I'm posting my question here.

I'm usually a PL bettor, and only occasionally bet DP. When I am betting PL, I usually put out a Any Crap/Crap Check bet on the come out roll to hedge my PL bet. I do the same thing to any CL bets I make. I know it is a sucker bet, but I prefer to think of it as winning $4 rather than losing $1 if a number comes up, and I don't mind collecting the $2 on a win. Since I often throw craps a lot when I shoot, this is good protection for me.

Once the point has been established and I take my free odds, I usually bet the Iron Cross (Field, 5, 6,8). I find this is a fun, if lazy, way to play because I'm collecting money on every single roll as long as the dreaded seven doesn't make an appearance. The only problem with this bet is when someone does a PSO, because then I lose everything.

I try to watch people at the table for a while, and get an idea of who tries to shoot the dice the same way every single time, and who just slings it down there. I also am one of those people who watches for something to happen three times, and then decide if it will happen again. I've noticed through totally unscientific observations and anecdotal evidence that most people can't make it three rolls past the come out without sevening out. So, if they make three rolls past the come out roll, it is time to decide if I want to put the money on the Iron Cross or not.

The good thing about the Iron Cross is if someone hits the Field hard, especially 2 or 12, you can get back to even quickly, and begin making money. The only bad thing about it is if someone continually hits 6 or 8, you're only scratching out a $2 or $4 or $8 win every roll.

I don't notice a lot of people playing the Iron Cross. Is it that people don't know about the bet, or that the odds of getting even on that bet are so bad, people just avoid taking the chance?
dwm
dwm
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July 7th, 2012 at 9:27:34 PM permalink
The Iron Cross has a big house advantage and thus is a bad bet. Those that do know about the bet quickly learn it is not a good way to play this game. It sounds like a good bet at first glance, but in reality it does not do well.
guido111
guido111
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July 7th, 2012 at 9:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: SACR

I don't notice a lot of people playing the Iron Cross. Is it that people don't know about the bet, or that the odds of getting even on that bet are so bad, people just avoid taking the chance?

And you won't.
It was popular in the 70s, the Mensa people back then said two thumbs up to the method.

Problem is, the very high house edge is hard to overcome the longer one plays.

A main reason is about 28% of ALL shooters end their hand with a PSO.
(1 in 9 shooters 7out on average on the second roll)
They may have had winners up to going out,
but the IC bettors always get their money on the table after every point is established.

28 out of 100, on average, is a very big number for losing because it could even be much higher
waltomeal
waltomeal
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July 7th, 2012 at 10:01:47 PM permalink
Quote: guido111


A main reason is about 28% of ALL shooters end their hand with a PSO.



Harrumph.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
ahiromu
ahiromu
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July 8th, 2012 at 12:50:15 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

Not sure if the Iron Cross is considered a system, but if it is, please feel free to move it over to the Betting Systems board. Since it is a method of betting in craps, I'm posting my question here.

I don't notice a lot of people playing the Iron Cross. Is it that people don't know about the bet, or that the odds of getting even on that bet are so bad, people just avoid taking the chance?



For most intents and purposes, a "system" (derogatory term around here) is if you honestly think you're beating the house edge. If you don't think this, then welcome to the forum. What you have here is a strategy, which pretty much every "career" craps player has.

If you can get rid of the 5 place bet and go with a come bet with 2x odds, it's not -that- bad of a strategy. We all have our quirks, mine is pressing way too hard and fast.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
FleaStiff
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July 8th, 2012 at 1:11:02 AM permalink
Yes, I would agree that it is more 'strategy' than the much-dreaded "system", but in reality the issue is that it is a hedge and thus erodes your profits when you win. There are alot of numbers in the field but what is use of betting on them when 5, 6, 7, 8 are all losers.

Those c's and e's are a real problem... they mount up. You've made a bet but are trying to cushion yourself from a loss... make the bet and take your chance, don't try to hedge.
SACR
SACR
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July 8th, 2012 at 4:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

For most intents and purposes, a "system" (derogatory term around here) is if you honestly think you're beating the house edge. If you don't think this, then welcome to the forum. What you have here is a strategy, which pretty much every "career" craps player has.

If you can get rid of the 5 place bet and go with a come bet with 2x odds, it's not -that- bad of a strategy. We all have our quirks, mine is pressing way too hard and fast.



There is no magic way to beat the casino. If there was, someone would have found it by now, and they wouldn't be able to afford to build the palaces they do, because they'd be broke.

The best time time deploy this strategy is when someone establishes 5, 6, or 8 as the point. Makes it a little cheaper to play it.

When I am not shooting, I usually bet the IC, and then if the shooter has a long roll going and has made me money, I begin to make some come bets. Often these come bets with end up being on 5, 6, or 8. If the shooter hits a come bet, I then take the winnings, replace the place bet, and make another come bet. If the shooter hits the point, then I become a pass line bettor. I look at it as an easy way to take advantage of a hot roll.

I think the most difficult roll in craps is the second roll, after the point has been established. Make it past that, and you can breathe a little easier.
CrapsForever
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July 8th, 2012 at 4:14:38 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

I think the most difficult roll in craps is the second roll, after the point has been established. Make it past that, and you can breathe a little easier.



Truer words have never been spoken/written!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
ewjones080
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July 8th, 2012 at 5:15:10 AM permalink
I've heard there are some casinos, not sure where, where they pay triple on BOTH 2 and 12. This would be the best place to employ, since the field action is "free" so to speak. This might also have been just a promotional thing.

Indeed the crap cheques add up in a hurry. That's the one dumb bet that I'll still make. My rationale is this: I want to bet specifically $20/shooter, but if there's a come-out loser, or worse, a few, then I can't bet specifically $20/shooter for 10 shooters necessarily. If other bets won, then I could, but if several shooters rolled just two come-out losers and NO winners, then I might be screwed.
AZDuffman
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July 8th, 2012 at 6:14:29 AM permalink
If you just want to enjoy yourself and need a way to bet AND believe in "this player will have a long roll" place an Iron Cross. The IC works if there is a long roll and the field numbers hit hard during it. When I do the parties I teach the "modified iron corss" where you:

1. Wait for a point of 5/6/8
2. Take 1 unit of full odds behind the PL
3. Place 2 units plus proper whites on the remaining 5/6/8
4. Bet one unit on the field

This way you get a net unit plus back on every non-7 roll. From a house-edge prespective it is not good. But what it does for me is give the players some activity as newbies get bored on long rolls. Many leave fast, especially women, because, "This game is hard and boring!"

For action-junkies, it works. If you get a roll of >7 throws you are in the black.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
midwestgb
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July 8th, 2012 at 6:44:20 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

If you just want to enjoy yourself and need a way to bet AND believe in "this player will have a long roll" place an Iron Cross. The IC works if there is a long roll and the field numbers hit hard during it. When I do the parties I teach the "modified iron corss" where you:

1. Wait for a point of 5/6/8
2. Take 1 unit of full odds behind the PL
3. Place 2 units plus proper whites on the remaining 5/6/8
4. Bet one unit on the field

This way you get a net unit plus back on every non-7 roll. From a house-edge prespective it is not good. But what it does for me is give the players some activity as newbies get bored on long rolls. Many leave fast, especially women, because, "This game is hard and boring!"

For action-junkies, it works. If you get a roll of >7 throws you are in the black.



The only time I move to the IC is when the point is 5. I will occasionally play it when the point is 6 or 8. My modified IC is to put down a field bet at half the value (or less) of what I have on the 6/8.

IC is generally a very poor bet, but can become a semi- conservative approach of sorts to playing a hot table.
7craps
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July 8th, 2012 at 12:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: SACR

I think the most difficult roll in craps is the second roll, after the point has been established. Make it past that, and you can breathe a little easier.


Quote: CrapsForever

Truer words have never been spoken/written!

No truth at all to those words.
Too many craps players have a very short range of comprehension to reality.

I won 3 times in a row on that 2nd roll.
Three other players also did.
I then went and had a big buffet dinner with my winnings.

I could care less about the 6 that lost on that second roll.

SACR, CrapsForever and the rest of the "playing scared crowd" can bow to their Craps God for getting past the second roll after a point is established

I just high 5 mine for not getting past that great second roll.


For the OP.
Hedging makes it possible to win LESS when you win
It makes it possible to lose MORE when you lose.

If you only plan on making 100 or less lifetime bets, yeah, do as you please. Anything can happen.

Plan on betting more?
So do all the other "playing scared' craps players

Break away from the average gambler and learn to do the math and simulations yourself.
You will then, and only then, know the truth and the truth shall make you free.
Free to play to win the most and lose the least.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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July 8th, 2012 at 1:28:19 PM permalink
Quote: SACR

I think the most difficult roll in craps is the second roll, after the point has been established. Make it past that, and you can breathe a little easier.




The 7-Out after the Point is Established is a STAT that I keep track of in almost every Craps session that I partake in and the figures are a lot higher than 16.7%, A LOT HIGHER!

A few "lucky" players that I have met through the years who do not make Pass Line Bets unless they are shooting turn "OFF" all of their Place Bets on the first roll after the Point is established. The problem is when shooters start hitting "buckshots"...hitting the point right back after the Point is established...What do you do here? Risk your entire bankroll....Pass Line (For Those who bet them), Odds & Other Place Bets by having them working or Turn "OFF" all your Bets...and hop the Point for a couple dollars on the first roll after the Point is established?

-------------------------------------------------------------

In one of my recent Craps session:

10 out of 12 (83%) of my 7-Outs were of the Point Established, 7-Out on the very next roll variety. A "whale" standing next to me kept on betting $160 Across on every shooter including myself; I personally destroyed his bankroll...I felt bad but that was his fault...I specifically told him to wait until I threw a Box # AFTER the point was established before going CRAZY with his bets. He chose not to listen...A fool and his money were soon departed...

I am called the Point Seven Out (PSO) King for a reason. Most of my 7-Outs (Higher than 80%) occur on the very 1st roll after the point is established so I bet accordingly to "protect" myself on the first roll because I shoot from the Pass Side most of the time. After the first roll without a 7 or a Crap # thrown, for some unexplained reason....I almost always have a GREAT roll.

If you play with me shooting on a table, heed my advice; Don't bet on me (Pass Side) until I throw a box number AFTER the point is established... your wallet will thank you!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
buzzpaff
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July 8th, 2012 at 2:55:57 PM permalink
" IC is generally a very poor bet, but can become a semi- conservative approach of sorts to playing a hot table. "

lET US IN ON THE SECRET. hOW DO YOU KNOW WHEN THE TABLE IS GETTING HOT ??
vert1276
vert1276
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July 8th, 2012 at 3:13:49 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

In one of my recent Craps session:

10 out of 12 (83%) of my 7-Outs were of the Point Established, 7-Out on the very next roll variety. A "whale" standing next to me kept on betting $160 Across on every shooter including myself; I personally destroyed his bankroll...I felt bad but that was his fault...I specifically told him to wait until I threw a Box # AFTER the point was established before going CRAZY with his bets. He chose not to listen...A fool and his money were soon departed...

I am called the Point Seven Out (PSO) King for a reason. Most of my 7-Outs (Higher than 80%) occur on the very 1st roll after the point is established so I bet accordingly to "protect" myself on the first roll because I shoot from the Pass Side most of the time. After the first roll without a 7 or a Crap # thrown, for some unexplained reason....I almost always have a GREAT roll.

If you play with me shooting on a table, heed my advice; Don't bet on me (Pass Side) until I throw a box number AFTER the point is established... your wallet will thank you!



Don't take this the wrong way.....But sometimes its hard to tell whether you really believe what you are posting or if you are just trolling.....

What I mean to say is, If I wanted to troll a gambling forum this is the exact kind of post I would make to make other posters heads explode LOL
CrapsForever
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July 8th, 2012 at 3:27:34 PM permalink
Quote: vert1276

Don't take this the wrong way.....But sometimes its hard to tell whether you really believe what you are posting or if you are just trolling.....

What I mean to say is, If I wanted to troll a gambling forum this is the exact kind of post I would make to make other posters heads explode LOL



This was my post below on June 21 regarding this event.

Quote: CrapsForever

Worst shooting in Craps History???

I had 12 consecutive 7-Outs today including 10 Point 7-Outs. How is that possible??? Can someone please calculate the odds of both of those events occurring in a single craps session (8 hours)?

I need a LONG nap!



Not taking anything the wrong way. I have too many witnesses that were at the Casino with me during that last specific session mentioned above to waste time "trolling".

I usually don't touch the dice after 3 "bad" rolls for the rest of the day but the 10 out of 12 PSO Craps session was a manic session where EVERYONE could not make a point so I threw the dice anyway. I hardly lost on my rolls....(Laying a #/Hopping 7's is a very valuable tool).

----------------------------------------

On a more important note, I have learned a lot more about Craps in the past month than I have learned in over 12 years of playing. I am not going to say anymore....... but Craps is the greatest game ever invented!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
SACR
SACR
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July 8th, 2012 at 10:48:23 PM permalink
I've won plenty of times on that second roll, too. I'm simply saying that to me, personally, the only roll I worry about is the roll right after the point has been established.

As for the hedge, I have found the $1 is worth the satisfaction of not seeing my pass line bet taken up. If losing $1 was going to make me change my strategy, I don't belong in the casino anyway.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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July 9th, 2012 at 2:31:06 AM permalink
I like to get past the second roll because it's damn embarassing to seven out on the second roll. There is a reason the "second roll" is called "the most dangerous roll in craps." You always have a 1/6 chance of rolling that bad number, but it is so humiliating when you do especially when you just got through criticisizing the others at the table for not being able to shoot. (Which is why I never criticize another shooter. In fact when someone else throws a point-seven I will say "we all do it" - and we all do.)

When I play at a $10 or less table I don't hedge my passline bet, but when I make a bet at a $15 table I bet $2 any craps, and at a $25 table it's a $5 horn high ace-deuce on the come out.

Sometimes the horn high ace deuce protects my $25 on the passline, and it's a nice bonus when the come out is a yo.

I never bet the field but when I was younger I played the field as much as I could. :-)
SACR
SACR
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July 9th, 2012 at 3:01:38 AM permalink
Mendelson,

There is no feeling of failure at the craps pit quite like PSO. My most common comment after a PSO is "Why do I play this game?"

At a $15 table, I'd play a $3 any craps. I base my crap check bet on $1 per unit bet on PL. A $2 bet would win you $14, so you'd lose $1 because of your PL bet. $3 wins you $21, so you actually make $6 on your bet.
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:02:54 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

When I play at a $10 or less table I don't hedge my passline bet, but when I make a bet at a $15 table I bet $2 any craps, and at a $25 table it's a $5 horn high ace-deuce on the come out.

Sometimes the horn high ace deuce protects my $25 on the passline, and it's a nice bonus when the come out is a yo.



It is very ironic that you mention the "Horn High Ace Deuce", I met a player who was tracking all the rolls on my table recently and he mentioned to me to bet them whenever I bet the Horns on the comeout when I am shooting because I was throwing them at an unusually high rate. Though, I throw the Dice randomly, I throw LOTS of Horns, I have thrown the Horn High Ace Deuce 4 consecutive times on the comeout roll twice and 3 consecutive times a lot in the past few weeks and have had GREAT overall success with that specific bet.

Parlay (WOV Forum Member) has been advising me to bet it for years but it took a complete stranger for me to finally "think outside the box" and realize that it's a great bet especially when it hits at a higher rate than expected. My new strategy is betting $5 Horn High Ace Deuce and increase the bet by $5 with every successive hit on the comeout roll. I've got lots of tips recently from players who start with the $25 Horn High Ace Deuce when I am shooting and increase by $25 each successive hit. I am working on "growing the b*lls" to start betting like that.

Alan, Great Info!

What do you do when a shooter bets the "Horn High 12" for $25 and then proceeds to hits it on 6 out of 8 rolls on the comeout roll: Would you continue not betting the Horn since it's such a sucker bet, Bet the Horn High Ace Deuce or "mimic the shooter's bet" and bet the Horn High 12 even if it's for a lower amount?
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
AlanMendelson
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:27:25 AM permalink
We have a nickname for my sister. We call her "full of crap" because she throws a lot of craps. One time at NYNY on her come out she threw... and Im not kidding... ELEVEN craps in a row. The next time I played with her and her husband it was at MGM and the first time she held the dice it was EIGHT craps in a row on the come out. And afer that it was Caesars where it was FIVE in a row.

She just picks em up and throws them. But if you don't throw many craps when you have the dice, its because my sister is at the high end of the bell curve.

Unfortunately for me, my horn high ace deuce come-out bets are only meant for "insurance" on my passline bet, so I never pressed. One of the dealers at NYNY commented on my sister's ELEVEN craps in a row, and said that was a parlay worth a new car. I never figured it out, but I think after the third parlay of a $5 craps the table limit was reached:

$5 first bet
$35 after first hit
$245 after second hit
$1715 after third hit
$12005 after fourth hit

One more story: a few years ago at Caesars a shooter threw the Yo 18 times in a row -- this was after the come out and after the traditional "second roll yo bet." I and one other player were at the table with the shooter. NONE of us were on the Yo.

and I have to tell one more. I was at a table at Caesars where a guy was betting $100 on the 12 -- and he did it for 30 rolls in a row. The 12 never hit. He stopped the bet. I was next to get the dice. I rolled the 12 three times in a row.
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:38:16 AM permalink
11 Craps in a row????? Freaking Amazing!!!!!

18 Yo's in a row???? That's INSANE!!!!

I don't have the balls (yet) to do a full parlay on Horns but that is an amazing story which I believe 100%. This is a big part of my growth in Craps recently....some people like Alan's sister throw numbers that are not the norm. Even though it can be considered a relatively short sample size since she may not have thrown the dice a million times; if I am ever on the table with her, I am going to bet a couple $ more on Horns whenever she shoots...

I have received several unsolicited $100 tips from different players in several different Casinos over the years and the one thing in common about all of them is they were all betting the Horns...

Sidenote: I love when shooters have "nicknames"; it makes it easier for me to decide what bets to make....
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
7craps
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July 9th, 2012 at 12:17:09 PM permalink
Quote: SACR

As for the hedge, I have found the $1 is worth the satisfaction of not seeing my pass line bet taken up. If losing $1 was going to make me change my strategy, I don't belong in the casino anyway.

That is where you and all the other hedge bettors (playing scared) make their mistake.
You have no clue as to the long term consequences of your actions.
If you only play for 100 to 200 lifetime rolls, do as you wish.
Variance will be your guiding light.

All Craps players want to win.
Anything else is just a flat out lie.

The $1 you make over and over loses MORE than just the bet that lost.

You do not have to believe that or me but for those that read this thread later on...
pay attention if you want to win more and/or lose less.

Do not hedge your bets. even with $1.

It is also against the Wizard's rule.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/ten-commandments/
#7


I fired up WinCraps and ran the 35,097 zumma dice rolls.
For those that do not know what the zumma dice rolls are.
Actual dice rolls from 2 downtown casinos were tracked during the 90s.
No RNG here.

I choose to use zumma for now as anyone can verify the results independently from mine.

here are the results
The first line is the highest bankroll seen
next is the lowest
last is the ending

In every case, the player that made a $1 craps bet to protect the $5 line bet lost more money over time.
That is the fact.
Why? A higher house edge, combined.
But Craps players do not understand what house edge is.
Just winning and losing.
Perfect!

here is the data
$5 line bets and $1 any craps
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
pass
85
-940
-915
pass-$1craps
28
-1777
-1742
Wow! The hedge bettor, because s(he) does not like the feel of losing to a craps number on the come out roll lost
$827 MORE than if NOT hedging over the 35,000 dice rolls.
The results do not lie!
How does it NOW feel that over time you WIN more by NOT hedging!
Feels great to me.
That is all that really matters.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
pass and come-$1craps
160
-5818
-5804 Big LOSS
pass and come-NO craps hedging
390
-1870
-1595
That is all I lost??? Damn
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
3point Ponzer (3point Molly) $5 bets and $1 craps to protect the come bets
3point Molly-$1craps
130
-4049
-4010 another BIG loss

3point Molly-NO $1craps
335
-1325
-1140 Again... That is all I lost???


Yeah!!
In your face

But I still LOVE the hedge bettors.
They allow the casino to win more $$$ from them over time.
Each session played just keeps adding up.

I get better comps and enjoyment knowing that those hedge craps players are the sucker players.
Hey, suckers taste sweet! And you are free to bet any way you want with your own bankroll.

Just do not try to convince others that that is a better way to play.
Unless you have documented proof.
You have been shown that thought process is just wrong... meaning it is not right
Live with it.

Life is great!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
SACR
SACR
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July 9th, 2012 at 3:16:01 PM permalink
Quote:

Yeah!!
In your face



Are you having a bad day today?

I mean, is that really necessary?

Nowhere on my post did I say this is the optimal way to play, nowhere on my post did I say others should do what I'm doing. I simply said this is how I play, and gave my reason why.

I would say on my average session, I probably shoot four times. That means I'm risking $4 on those four come out rolls. If I make two come bets on those four rolls, that is a total of $12 at risk. If the thought of losing $4 or $12 is going to rankle me, I don't belong in a casino.

The next time I have a session where I shoot 35000 times, I'll be sure to remember this thread, though.

Quote:

I get better comps and enjoyment knowing that those hedge craps players are the sucker players.



Please explain to me how other players losing money results in you getting better comps. Which hotels/casinos are you staying at where other players losing are resulting in better comps, because I want to go there. I'd love to reap comps off other people's play besides my own.

Quote:

Just do not try to convince others that that is a better way to play.



Again, show me where I said others should follow my strategy or tried to convince others to play as I do?

Quote:

You have been shown that thought process is just wrong... meaning it is not right
Live with it.



Again, is this necessary? I'm going to chalk this up to you having a bad day, because I've read multiple comments on here from you, and you're not normally this much of a jerk in your replies to others.

Quote:

Life is great!



This I do agree with.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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July 9th, 2012 at 3:54:41 PM permalink
" If losing $1 was going to make me change my strategy, I don't belong in the casino anyway. " The casino will take every dollar you are willing to give away ! Only after you have no more dollars, then you will be persona-non-grata.
guido111
guido111
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Joined: Sep 16, 2010
July 10th, 2012 at 10:15:32 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

The next time I have a session where I shoot 35000 times, I'll be sure to remember this thread, though.

One does not need to have a 35000 roll session to see similar results.

Since the rolls are independent, it does not matter, over time, when you bet and what rolls are seen.

100 rolls one day
188 rolls another day
300 rolls another day
501 rolls another day
250 rolls another day
161 rolls another day

That adds up to 1500 current lifetime rolls total.

Most think there is a difference from playing one long 1500 roll session and 6 sessions that add up to 1500 rolls.

They are one and the same as it comes down to resolved wagers.

The dice do not care when you are betting, they just produce the rolls needed as time marches on.
Also, it does not matter that you missed many dice rolls in between your sessions.

Lifetime results are not limited to sequential dice rolls.
Just random dice rolls.
scire
scire
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Joined: Jun 16, 2012
July 10th, 2012 at 10:59:15 AM permalink
Well now I know what I have been messing around with in practice lately as another earlier post of mine indicated: "modified iron ross". like it.

So far I like it and when I get to my next "trip" I intend to try it. Really wanted to try this "Cross" at an Online Casino via a Random # Generater.
guido111
guido111
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Joined: Sep 16, 2010
July 10th, 2012 at 11:01:49 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I like to get past the second roll because it's damn embarassing to seven out on the second roll. There is a reason the "second roll" is called "the most dangerous roll in craps." You always have a 1/6 chance of rolling that bad number,


Quote: SACR

I try to watch people at the table for a while, and get an idea of who tries to shoot the dice the same way every single time, and who just slings it down there. I also am one of those people who watches for something to happen three times, and then decide if it will happen again. I've noticed through totally unscientific observations and anecdotal evidence that most people can't make it three rolls past the come out without sevening out.

Those that do not know the math or believe the math of what is expected by each shooter, mostly live by their own superstitions or from unreliable facts from the memory of past events.

The 3rd roll by any shooter has the highest probability to 7out on. (relative column)
The second highest probability is the 2nd roll.

1 out of 3 shooters go out by their 4th roll
Half go out by their 6th roll

Craps Shooter Length of a Shooters Hand
rollsor more1 inor lessrollsrelative1 in
30.888888888888881.111.1111111111%20.1111111119.0
40.772119341563781.322.7880658436%30.1167695478.6
50.667352537722901.533.2647462277%40.1047668049.5
60.576128908829951.742.3871091170%50.09122362911.0
70.497210870421172.050.2789129579%60.07891803812.7
80.429044106625212.357.0955893375%70.06816676414.7
90.370191348541172.762.9808651459%80.05885275817.0
100.319390698651603.168.0609301348%90.0508006519.7
110.275546561987293.672.4453438013%100.04384413722.8
120.237710425961294.276.2289574039%110.03783613626.4
130.205061925293064.979.4938074707%120.03264850130.6
140.176891903460855.782.3108096539%130.02817002235.5
150.152587568839846.684.7412431160%140.02430433541.1
160.131619560348467.686.8380439652%150.02096800847.7
170.113530703351438.888.6469296649%160.01808885755.3
180.0979262489642310.290.2073751036%170.01560445464.1
190.0844654102266111.891.5534589773%180.01346083974.3
200.0728540292655713.792.7145970734%190.01161138186.1
210.0628382289224915.993.7161771078%200.010015899.8
220.0541989199951018.594.5801080005%210.008639309115.7
230.0467470511745221.495.3252948825%220.007451869134.2
240.0403195029904024.895.9680497010%230.006427548155.6
250.0347755397068228.896.5224460293%240.005543963180.4


Once one accepts the results from the math and simulations and actual documented dice rolls,
it becomes easy to know what to expect from a total number of shooters in a good session length. Not just 2 shooters.

Here is a chart of a 323 dice roll session (I know I post this one a lot. I made great money from it while many did not)
a few years back from the Golden Nugget downtown Vegas
Still produces a normal distribution.
A few more went out by the 4th roll as the math expectation said, but was right in the range of what the variance said.
Add it up, one can see how close this session came to expectation.

There was one DI in this group.
He was the 7th shooter.
I remember him leaving after his 7out. "This table is too cold for me"
I replied "You were just 40 rolls too late. Missed a good 26 roller"
That DI also missed the 27 roller than came 15 shooters later.
I did not miss that one!


Quote: AlanMendelson

but it is so humiliating when you do especially when you just got through criticisizing the others at the table for not being able to shoot. (Which is why I never criticize another shooter. In fact when someone else throws a point-seven I will say "we all do it" - and we all do.)

Never feel humiliated.

"Random dice rolls produce normal distributions"

What, every shooter will 7out on the 18th roll or later if they are a good shooter?
The only good shooters are those can can get both dice to hit the far wall.
That is what my lifetime of studies has proven.

When a player makes a bad comment thrown at me for a fast 7out, I throw it right back at them.
They shut up.
Especially since they see my tracking the dice rolls in my trusty notebook and I know they do the same thing.

The underlining theme here to the OP thread is one should know what to expect from any type of play from any length(s) of sessions.
It's cool to ask others for opinions and thoughts,

but the ultimate learning does not come from a few sessions played,
but from knowing what is to be expected, both ev and variance from the math and/or simulations,
so we can leave the superstitious groups (most craps players) to their own miseries.
guido111
guido111
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Joined: Sep 16, 2010
July 10th, 2012 at 11:05:33 AM permalink
Quote: scire

Well now I know what I have been messing around with in practice lately as another earlier post of mine indicated: "modified iron ross". like it.

So far I like it and when I get to my next "trip" I intend to try it. Really wanted to try this "Cross" at an Online Casino via a Random # Generater.

Download WinCraps, it is free to have.
You can play all sorts of variations.

I use it all the time to play on and do wild crazy bets that I would normally not do in a casino.

One can enter Real dice rolls or just use different RNG rolls from the Mersenne twister in the program

Enjoy!
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