CrAPs FIrEBet Hedge to Profits.

Quote: CrapsGenious

Sally, you lost and my sim profited with flying colors

Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: CrapsGenious

Sally, you lost and my sim profited with flying colors

Haha...pure freakin "genious", I tell you!

Quote: RS

Here's an idea for a hedge...although I think we've already decided hedging is pretty f***** bad.....but not as bad as the fire bet to begin with...

You make your $5 fire bet. Once you're on the 4'th point to a fire, you lay either $12, $15, or $20 to win $10 [if a 7 out occurs], and you end up winning a net of $4 dollars (the lay pays you $10, minus the $1 vig, minus the $5 fire bet). If the 4'th point is made, you're a guaranteed winner and no longer need to hedge.

That's it!

Quote: CrapsGenious

Update: After running the simulation on hedging the firebet vs. Just betting the firebet, using the corrected WinCraps file as created by Sally, I have bad news... Sally, you lost and my sim profited with flying colors. If you like I can also send you the "Sessions log" to show you my "Firebet hedging victory"

Quote: CrapsGenious

I do appreciate you taking the time to create this WinCraps pro file.

Perhaps you can create the WinCraps Pro file for the 6/8 lock & Load file to compare with the firebet hedging someday.

1) starts off with betting Place6, Place8 for $12.00 each & $5/Hard6, $5/Hard8
2) If place6 wins, press to $30/place6, Same bet thereafter.
3) If place8 wins, press to $30/place8, Same bet thereafter.
4) If Hard6 wins, press to $50/hard6, Same bet thereafter. If lose, bet $5/Hard6
5) If Hard8 wins, press to $50/Hard8, Same bet thereafter. If lose, bet $5/Hard8
6) start new session if 7 out.

Quote: geoff

If we're going to start changing math why don't we just make 7 a 100% chance? Seems like it would be easier to make money if you do that.

Quote: mustangsally

my 100,000 shooter simulation used actual casino dice rolls
my Uncle has 1.2 million of them on his computer (including the Zumma Craps system tester - funny name) and it was from those rolls over 800,000 were used for each player in each sim.
why trust a computer dice rolls when actual dice rolls are available?
or I could do this both ways (maybe baby) and compare the results and see who can tell if the results were real or Memorex

dice roll real or computer generated example

Show Spoiler

which are real casino craps dice rolls for one shooter and which are computer generated by WinCraps RNG#1
1) 5,9,9,4,6,10,9,7
2) 7,8,8,3,3,10,9,6,7
3) 6,4,9,7
4) 6,4,10,6,6,2,9,8,4,8,8,8,8,5,7
5) 9,11,2,8,3,4,5,8,9,10,5,9,5,8,5,11,6,7

I would guess all of them!

Your Christmas present method did worse than just my method of flat betting the Fire bet with the max bets you first listed
Here is a reminder of my results (per shooter)
your results: Christmas gift method
mean: -1.27
net$: - 126,972
handle$: 1,482,680
advantage: -8.56%

my results
mean: -1.09
net$: - 108,750
handle$: 500,000
advantage: -21.75%

The average loss per shooter is close
could be worse

I also ran your ver2 - what you call the corrected version -
bet less on Lays and I did it with vig always paid - probably the most common method at all the worlds casino
and the vig on a win only. harder to find for most
I think many casinos allow vig on a win for Buy and Lays on the 4 or 10 and always on the inside numbers
But there are no statistics on how many do this also.

results: (per shooter)
your results: Lower Lays and vig up front
mean: -1.14
net$: - 114,492
handle$: 1,274,797
advantage: -8.98%
still not better than just plain old $5 fire bet and nothing else

your results: Lower Lays and vig win only
mean: -1.05
net$: - 105,213
handle$: 1,250,610
advantage: -8.41%
Hey, we have a winner!



IF we can only pay the vig on a win for every Lay bet
May be hard to find these rules

This may lead to how much should one bet to maximize a win on both sides
and it was talked about before
be warned
others will show math!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/860-fire-bet-hedge/

It was fun while it lasted.
I did only in Classic because I was helping my Uncle convert many of his older Classic file to Pro
It takes some adjusting for some type of code that is used to make it work as expected.
There are things in Classic that were removed in Pro so some code has to be done differently.
And no way to convert Pro to Classic except manually
maybe that is why he asked me to help him when he never has asked me to help him before.
I gets it

the results from your newest system
I call P68H68 parlay
(per shooter)
mean: -6.59
net$: - 659,356
handle$: 15,197,529
advantage: -4.34%

average loss per shooter way over $6
the Fire bet hedge was an average loss around $1.05 to $1.27
back to the drawing board!

all fun!
Sally

Quote: CrapsGenious

You need to use the program to understand the rolls that come from it. I've yet to see a real craps table that rolls 9x 7's in a row or sorry, Wincraps rolls far too many 7's to run any simulation.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

9 7's in a row is about 1 in 10 million.

If you run simulations for enough rolls, you will see this occasionally. You will probably not play enough craps in your lifetime to see it, although you might (someone has seen it before). This does not mean that wincraps is wrong. Surely you understand that with more rolls, you will see more rare events, right?

Also, with your method of throwing a 7 one time in three, you should see 9 in a row about once every 20,000 times :)

Quote: CrapsGenious

Post the code and let me run a sim. if you have it for Pro version of the 6/8 hard6 hard8 strategy.

If Initializing script
Then
   Bet $12 on Place6 :
   Bet $12 on Place8 :
   Bet $5 on Hard6 :
   Bet $5 on Hard8 :
   AutoHandle Winning Bets = "Same Bet/Take Winnings" :
   GoTo "end" EndIf
If Dice total = any(2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12) Then GoTo "end" EndIf
If Place6 wins And Place6 is less than $30
Then Bet $30 on Place6 EndIf
If Place8 wins And Place8 is less than $30
Then Bet $30 on Place8 EndIf
If Hard6 is equal to $0
Then Bet $5 on Hard6 EndIf
If Hard8 is equal to $0
Then Bet $5 on Hard8 EndIf
If Place6 is equal to $0
Then Bet $12 on Place6 EndIf
If Place8 is equal to $0
Then Bet $12 on Place8 EndIf
If Hard6 wins Then Bet $50 on Hard6 EndIf
If Hard8 wins Then Bet $50 on Hard8 EndIf
If Beginning new session
Then Bet $12 on Place6 : Bet $12 on Place8 : Bet $5 on Hard6 : Bet $5 on Hard8 EndIf
If A point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then Add $1 to CheckStack1 : Start new session(preserve checkstacks, dice roll file) EndIf
: "end" :
If CheckStack1 is equal to 100000
Then Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive EndIf