docsjs
docsjs
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January 31st, 2010 at 10:23:08 AM permalink
If four different numbers have been made, how much should you lay against the point on the fifth number to guarantee a win? Assume a five dollar fire bet which pays 1250 for five numbers.

How much to lay if five numbers have been made? (five dollar bet pays 5000 for six numbers)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 31st, 2010 at 2:21:04 PM permalink
Zero.

If four different points have been made, the FireBet has ALREADY won.



Am I missing something?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
cclub79
cclub79
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January 31st, 2010 at 3:22:10 PM permalink
You are missing that you have won 24 to 1, but if a fifth different point hits, you win 249 to 1, and if all six points hit, it's 999 to 1. Only the highest payout is given, so you have to wait.

I suppose you could hedge...take a 5 dollar fire bet. You'll win 125 no matter what. If laying the 5th point were an even money bet, you'd lay however much would earn you ($1125/2)=562.50. Then if the point was hit, you'd lose 562.50 and win the fire bet 1250. The problem is it's not an even money bet. It's going to be less profitable the harder the point is to hit. 4 and 10 could only hedge for about 400 bucks, maybe 500 on the 5 and 9, and a little more on the 6 and 8. I could make the equations but I'm not a big believer in hedging....
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 31st, 2010 at 9:16:36 PM permalink
Oh. Now I get it.

I was thinking that the original poster was talking about a bettor that bets wrong all the time, and is also betting the FireBet - quite a contradictory bet!

If I understand it correctly, the original poster is suggesting that a RIGHT bettor is betting WITH the shooter, and feels that after hitting 4 different numbers, the shooter's hot roll is suddenly over and won't hit a fifth. (Or after 5, won't hit the sixth).


OK. Now I understand the question.

But I'm with the Wiz and his 7th Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
boymimbo
boymimbo
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January 31st, 2010 at 11:04:47 PM permalink
I asked the Wizard this question about hedging the 5th point. He answers the question
here:

He says first that you should take down the odds bet and solve for the lay bet.

For example, if the 5th point is a 5 or 9, and you had $5 on the fire. If the point hits you win $1,255 (1250 + 5); it if doesn't then you win 120 (125 - 5).

1255 - b = 120 + (19 /31)xb
1135 = 50/31 b
b = 703.70

Since you can only lay in increments of $31 on the 5 and 9 (31 pays 20), you lay $682 (to win 440).

If the point hits, you win $1255 - $682 = $593.
If the point does not hit, you win $120 + 440 = $560.

I've used this a few times.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
docsjs
docsjs
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February 1st, 2010 at 1:41:31 PM permalink
Thanks - someone understands me.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 1st, 2010 at 2:16:45 PM permalink
I think you're missing something.

OK. Say the shooter has made his four points of the Firebet. If you then bet the don't, you still have the chance that the shooter's next point is one of the four already made. Then there's the chance he'll make that point, so your don't will lose, AND not advance the Firebet payout.

Remember, the Firebet is not that the shooter successfully makes at least four points, but that he successfully makes at least four different points. For that reason, I believe hedge bets won't work.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
cclub79
cclub79
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February 1st, 2010 at 2:22:14 PM permalink
That's why he's not betting the don't; he's laying the point IF it comes out as the one that would bump the Fire Bet to 5 points. The only thing about the above analysis is that it is different if the point is not 5 (or 9).
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 1st, 2010 at 3:37:20 PM permalink
Oh. Laying. Got it.

Can you tell that I don't frequent the Dark Side?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
boymimbo
boymimbo
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February 2nd, 2010 at 9:20:04 AM permalink
The formula for the bet is as follows:

Amount won if point made: 250f + p - l
Amount won if point lost: 25f - p - lw

Where f is the fire bet, p is the pass line, l is the lay amount, and w is the win factor which is 20/41 (you lay 41 to win 20) for a point of 4 and 10, 20/31 (you lay 31 to win 20) for a point of 5 and 9, and 20/25 (you lay 25 to win 20) for a point of 6 and 8.

So to solve for l, you have the following equation:

250f + p - l = 25f - p - lw
225f + 2p = l(1 - w)

Hedge Bet based on fire bet and $10 pass line (no odds on pass line)

5th Lay Win
Point units $ units $ $1 $2 $3 $4 $5
4 or 10 41 20 164 287 451 615 738
5 or 9 31 20 124 279 403 558 682
6 or 8 25 20 125 250 375 500 625


You would play the pass line in case the point rolled is not the 5th point in a fire. In the casinos I play, you usually must bet the lay in increments of 41 (for the 4 and 10), 31 (5 and 9), and 25 (6 and 8).

All of this of course violates the Wizard's 7th commandment of gambling but if you have a win goal of a certain amount, this will help.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

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