January 31st, 2010 at 10:23:08 AM
permalink

If four different numbers have been made, how much should you lay against the point on the fifth number to guarantee a win? Assume a five dollar fire bet which pays 1250 for five numbers.

How much to lay if five numbers have been made? (five dollar bet pays 5000 for six numbers)

How much to lay if five numbers have been made? (five dollar bet pays 5000 for six numbers)

January 31st, 2010 at 2:21:04 PM
permalink

Zero.

If four different points have been made, the FireBet has ALREADY won.

Am I missing something?

If four different points have been made, the FireBet has ALREADY won.

Am I missing something?

I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

January 31st, 2010 at 3:22:10 PM
permalink

You are missing that you have won 24 to 1, but if a fifth different point hits, you win 249 to 1, and if all six points hit, it's 999 to 1. Only the highest payout is given, so you have to wait.

I suppose you could hedge...take a 5 dollar fire bet. You'll win 125 no matter what. If laying the 5th point were an even money bet, you'd lay however much would earn you ($1125/2)=562.50. Then if the point was hit, you'd lose 562.50 and win the fire bet 1250. The problem is it's not an even money bet. It's going to be less profitable the harder the point is to hit. 4 and 10 could only hedge for about 400 bucks, maybe 500 on the 5 and 9, and a little more on the 6 and 8. I could make the equations but I'm not a big believer in hedging....

I suppose you could hedge...take a 5 dollar fire bet. You'll win 125 no matter what. If laying the 5th point were an even money bet, you'd lay however much would earn you ($1125/2)=562.50. Then if the point was hit, you'd lose 562.50 and win the fire bet 1250. The problem is it's not an even money bet. It's going to be less profitable the harder the point is to hit. 4 and 10 could only hedge for about 400 bucks, maybe 500 on the 5 and 9, and a little more on the 6 and 8. I could make the equations but I'm not a big believer in hedging....

January 31st, 2010 at 9:16:36 PM
permalink

Oh. Now I get it.

I was thinking that the original poster was talking about a bettor that bets wrong all the time, and is also betting the FireBet - quite a contradictory bet!

If I understand it correctly, the original poster is suggesting that a RIGHT bettor is betting WITH the shooter, and feels that after hitting 4 different numbers, the shooter's hot roll is suddenly over and won't hit a fifth. (Or after 5, won't hit the sixth).

OK. Now I understand the question.

But I'm with the Wiz and his 7th Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

I was thinking that the original poster was talking about a bettor that bets wrong all the time, and is also betting the FireBet - quite a contradictory bet!

If I understand it correctly, the original poster is suggesting that a RIGHT bettor is betting WITH the shooter, and feels that after hitting 4 different numbers, the shooter's hot roll is suddenly over and won't hit a fifth. (Or after 5, won't hit the sixth).

OK. Now I understand the question.

But I'm with the Wiz and his 7th Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

January 31st, 2010 at 11:04:47 PM
permalink

I asked the Wizard this question about hedging the 5th point. He answers the question

here:

He says first that you should take down the odds bet and solve for the lay bet.

For example, if the 5th point is a 5 or 9, and you had $5 on the fire. If the point hits you win $1,255 (1250 + 5); it if doesn't then you win 120 (125 - 5).

1255 - b = 120 + (19 /31)xb

1135 = 50/31 b

b = 703.70

Since you can only lay in increments of $31 on the 5 and 9 (31 pays 20), you lay $682 (to win 440).

If the point hits, you win $1255 - $682 = $593.

If the point does not hit, you win $120 + 440 = $560.

I've used this a few times.

here:

He says first that you should take down the odds bet and solve for the lay bet.

For example, if the 5th point is a 5 or 9, and you had $5 on the fire. If the point hits you win $1,255 (1250 + 5); it if doesn't then you win 120 (125 - 5).

1255 - b = 120 + (19 /31)xb

1135 = 50/31 b

b = 703.70

Since you can only lay in increments of $31 on the 5 and 9 (31 pays 20), you lay $682 (to win 440).

If the point hits, you win $1255 - $682 = $593.

If the point does not hit, you win $120 + 440 = $560.

I've used this a few times.

-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

February 1st, 2010 at 1:41:31 PM
permalink

Thanks - someone understands me.

February 1st, 2010 at 2:16:45 PM
permalink

I think you're missing something.

OK. Say the shooter has made his four points of the Firebet. If you then bet the don't, you still have the chance that the shooter's next point is one of the four already made. Then there's the chance he'll make that point, so your don't will lose, AND not advance the Firebet payout.

Remember, the Firebet is not that the shooter successfully makes at least four points, but that he successfully makes at least four different points. For that reason, I believe hedge bets won't work.

OK. Say the shooter has made his four points of the Firebet. If you then bet the don't, you still have the chance that the shooter's next point is one of the four already made. Then there's the chance he'll make that point, so your don't will lose, AND not advance the Firebet payout.

Remember, the Firebet is not that the shooter successfully makes at least four points, but that he successfully makes at least four different points. For that reason, I believe hedge bets won't work.

I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

February 1st, 2010 at 2:22:14 PM
permalink

That's why he's not betting the don't; he's laying the point IF it comes out as the one that would bump the Fire Bet to 5 points. The only thing about the above analysis is that it is different if the point is not 5 (or 9).

February 1st, 2010 at 3:37:20 PM
permalink

Oh. Laying. Got it.

Can you tell that I don't frequent the Dark Side?I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

Can you tell that I don't frequent the Dark Side?

February 2nd, 2010 at 9:20:04 AM
permalink

The formula for the bet is as follows:

Amount won if point made: 250f + p - l

Amount won if point lost: 25f - p - lw

Where f is the fire bet, p is the pass line, l is the lay amount, and w is the win factor which is 20/41 (you lay 41 to win 20) for a point of 4 and 10, 20/31 (you lay 31 to win 20) for a point of 5 and 9, and 20/25 (you lay 25 to win 20) for a point of 6 and 8.

So to solve for l, you have the following equation:

250f + p - l = 25f - p - lw

225f + 2p = l(1 - w)

Hedge Bet based on fire bet and $10 pass line (no odds on pass line)

You would play the pass line in case the point rolled is not the 5th point in a fire. In the casinos I play, you usually must bet the lay in increments of 41 (for the 4 and 10), 31 (5 and 9), and 25 (6 and 8).

All of this of course violates the Wizard's 7th commandment of gambling but if you have a win goal of a certain amount, this will help.

Amount won if point made: 250f + p - l

Amount won if point lost: 25f - p - lw

Where f is the fire bet, p is the pass line, l is the lay amount, and w is the win factor which is 20/41 (you lay 41 to win 20) for a point of 4 and 10, 20/31 (you lay 31 to win 20) for a point of 5 and 9, and 20/25 (you lay 25 to win 20) for a point of 6 and 8.

So to solve for l, you have the following equation:

250f + p - l = 25f - p - lw

225f + 2p = l(1 - w)

Hedge Bet based on fire bet and $10 pass line (no odds on pass line)

5th | Lay | Win | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Point | units $ | units $ | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 |

4 or 10 | 41 | 20 | 164 | 287 | 451 | 615 | 738 |

5 or 9 | 31 | 20 | 124 | 279 | 403 | 558 | 682 |

6 or 8 | 25 | 20 | 125 | 250 | 375 | 500 | 625 |

You would play the pass line in case the point rolled is not the 5th point in a fire. In the casinos I play, you usually must bet the lay in increments of 41 (for the 4 and 10), 31 (5 and 9), and 25 (6 and 8).

All of this of course violates the Wizard's 7th commandment of gambling but if you have a win goal of a certain amount, this will help.

-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

- Jump to:
DEFUNCT CASINOS Bill's Gambling Hall & Saloon MonteLago O'Sheas Sahara Western FORUM INFO Announcements Help Rules GAMBLING Betting Systems Big Wins Blackjack Craps Dice Setting Gambling with an Edge Online Gambling Other Games Poker Slots Sports Betting Table Games Trip Reports Video Poker GAMBLING OUTSIDE VEGAS Asia Atlantic City California Eastern U.S. Europe/Africa Mississippi Nevada (other) Oceania The Americas Western U.S. GAMING BUSINESS Boyd Gaming Caesars Entertainment Game Inventors Corner MGM/Mirage Other Sands Station Casinos Wynn LAS VEGAS ATTRACTIONS Deals Food and Restaurants Night Clubs Other Attractions/Entertainment Relaxation and Rejuvenation Shopping Shows Strip Clubs Thrill Seeking LAS VEGAS CASINOS Aliante Casino Aria Arizona Charlie's Casinos Bally's Barcelona Bellagio Binion's Boyd Gaming Casinos Caesars Palace Cannery Casinos Casino Royale Casuarina Circus Circus Cosmopolitan D Las Vegas El Cortez Ellis Island Excalibur Flamingo Four Queens Golden Gate Golden Nugget Hard Rock Hilton Hooters Jean/Primm Casinos Longhorn Casino Luxor M Mandalay Bay MGM Grand Mirage Monte Carlo New York, New York Palms Paris Planet Hollywood Plaza Poker Palace Quad, The Rampart Rio Riviera Silver Nugget Silver Sevens Silverton Skyline Small Casinos South Point Station Casinos Stratosphere Treasure Island Tropicana Tuscany Vegas Club Venetian and Palazzo Wynn and Encore OFF-TOPIC Adult Discussions Free Speech Zone General Discussion GLBT Corner Gripes Kiosk Off-Topic Other Casinos Religion QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Advice All Other Casual Corner Gambling Las Vegas (other than gambling) Math