Risk of ruin for playing the Dark Side with 20x odds

Threads: 18
Posts: 1977

Joined: Jan 23, 2010

June 30th, 2013 at 9:09:23 PM permalink

Sounds a lot like Main Street Station in Downtown Las Vegas with $5 and 20X odds.

$2k bankroll trying to build into a $2.5k bank.

Simple RoT would be (2k/2.5k) - 1.36%

sim data

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 129.82
Avg. No. games tied . . = 3.71
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 450.81
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.676% of the time ( 216760)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.324% of the time ( 783240)

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 361.21
Avg. No. games tied . . = 10.32
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1254.30
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.742% of the time ( 217417)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.258% of the time ( 782583)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 125.54
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 423.87
Avg. Total amount bet . = 125.54
Bankroll was busted . . = 22.281% of the time ( 222811)
Win goal was met . . . = 77.719% of the time ( 777189)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 372.81
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1258.62
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.959% of the time ( 219594)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.041% of the time ( 780406)

looks to be very close for all 4 methods of play
same $5 line bets with the odds

If you do not want to play as long as the average length of time shown in the sim data
and just want to win $500 asap
try
Bold play betting
(bet just what is needed to hit your target in one attempt or
go all-in to build back up if you can not hit your target in one bet)

Bet $500 to win. No odds. Go for it.
Don't Pass or Pass Line
IF lose that first bet, bet $1k to hit your bankroll target.
Lose that, all-in for your last $500

Probability to win from Don't Pass
[1] 0.7924462
Probability to win from Pass Line
[1] 0.7923835

some R code if you want to play with it

I think this came from, who else, BruceZ
one can run this code online here:
http://www.compileonline.com/execute_r_online.php

br = 2000     # Starting Bankroll
goal = 2500   # Target bankroll
odds = 1      # Payoff Odds
p = 244/495   # P(win bet)
max_bet = 2000  # Table max

prob = 0
p_fail = 1
count = 0

while ( (br >= 1) & (br < goal) & (count < 1000) ) {

# Compute probabity of completing parlay up

  bet = min(br,max_bet)
  consec = 0 
  while (br + bet*odds <= goal) {
    br = br + bet*odds
    consec = consec + 1
    bet = min(br,max_bet)
  }

  p_parlay = p^consec

# Compute probabilty of reaching goal

  bets = 0
  if (br < goal) {
  while ( min(br,max_bet) >= ceiling((goal-br)/odds) ) {
    br = br - ceiling((goal-br)/odds)
    bets = bets + 1
  }
}

  p_goal = ifelse(bets, 1-(1-p)^bets, 1)

  delta = p_fail*p_parlay*p_goal
  prob = prob + delta
  p_fail = p_fail*p_parlay*(1-p)^bets
  count = count + 1
}

prob   # Probability of reaching goal
delta

Good Luck
Let us know how your session turned out
win some johnny

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 1st, 2013 at 2:47:57 AM permalink

Thanks for the the detailed calculations.

I did ~2400 random practice throws on my bed and got amazing results betting $5 on don't pass with 20x odds...

- Largest deficit was only $150 after 18 rolls
- $500 goal reached after 60 rolls
- $875 profit after ~100 rolls
- $1710 profit after ~200 rolls
- $1580 profit after ~300 rolls
- $1330 profit after ~400 rolls
- $1960 profit after ~500 rolls
- $1985 profit after ~600 rolls
- $1960 profit after ~700 rolls
- $2725 profit after ~800 rolls
- $2385 profit after ~900 rolls
- $2900 profit after ~1000 rolls
- $2410 profit after ~1100 rolls
- $2135 profit after ~1200 rolls
- $1995 profit after ~1300 rolls
- $2025 profit after ~1400 rolls
- $1585 profit after ~1500 rolls
- $1460 profit after ~1600 rolls
- $1555 profit after ~1700 rolls
- $1300 profit after ~1800 rolls
- $1050 profit after ~1900 rolls
- $1420 profit after ~2000 rolls
- $1785 profit after ~2100 rolls
- $1030 profit after ~2200 rolls
- $1810 profit after ~2300 rolls
- $3025 profit after ~2400 rolls

I was considering doing a Martingale on either pass or don't pass starting with a $5 bet, but I quickly abandoned that idea after I saw streaks of 8 in a row for both sides.

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 1st, 2013 at 3:38:12 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
got amazing results - Largest deficit was only $150 after 18 rolls

Don't count on this in the casino - the perversity of real world gambling dictates that it is the opposite that is likely to happen, frustratingly persistent losing!

If you are only going to make a line bet with full odds, no come betting, looks like your bankroll will be sufficient. Go for it and let's wish for you the game is as available as you hope.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

7craps

Threads: 18
Posts: 1977

Joined: Jan 23, 2010

July 1st, 2013 at 7:43:31 AM permalink

Quote: odiousgambit
Don't count on this in the casino - the perversity of real world gambling dictates that it is the opposite that is likely to happen, frustratingly persistent losing!

But of course many do 'count on this' on the first few real $$
attempts until they see the reality of many more session results.

Now trying to double a $2k bankroll or bust out trying has a less
than 50% probability of success.

The OP ran 1 simulation,
I ran 1,000,000
results show just a coin flip with a house edge.

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 442.58
Avg. No. games tied . . = 12.65
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1536.88
Bankroll was busted . . = 51.347% of the time ( 513472)
Win goal was met . . . = 48.653% of the time ( 486528)

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 1369.03
Avg. No. games tied . . = 39.12
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 4753.75
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.697% of the time ( 526970)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.303% of the time ( 473030)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 429.09
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1448.63
Bankroll was busted . . = 51.522% of the time ( 515221)
Win goal was met . . . = 48.478% of the time ( 484779)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 1401.33
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 4730.76
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.794% of the time ( 527941)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.206% of the time ( 472059)

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 1st, 2013 at 11:10:52 PM permalink

Made $850 with a $1600 bankroll tonight by mostly betting $5 on the don't and then laying either 10x or 20x odds.

I have a suspicion that the dice were loaded at my table since so many people quickly sevened out.
It seemed like over 80% of the shooters never hit their point.

I gotta thank the Gambling Gods that I didn't bust out after going on tilt due to some players hitting several points in a row.

I almost dug my own grave during one of my rolls after I kept hitting point after point!

One of my points was a 4 and I thought it would be an easy payout after laying $200 odds.
I couldn't roll a 7 no matter how many times I set the dice for 7, so I just flung the dice in frustration and of course the 4 hit... LOL

At one point I was down $600 due to foolish overbetting and I finally gave up on betting against myself, so I bet $400 on the pass praying to hit a 7 or 11 during come out. Sure enough, I rolled a 4... LOL
But I lucked out and hit the 4 on the very next roll.

At the very end of my session, my adrenaline was flowing and I was regularly betting $100-200 on the don't with $100-200 odds.
Good thing most of the shooters quickly sevened out.

All in all, I must thank the Wizard for his don't strategy.
Next time I play, I really need to control myself better and stick to betting the $5 minimum on the don't with 10x or 20x odds.
I took a beating betting $100-200 on the don't when shooters kept rolling 7's and 11's during come out... :(

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 2nd, 2013 at 3:09:41 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Made $850 with a $1600 bankroll tonight by mostly betting $5 on the don't and then laying either 10x or 20x odds.

Hey, you're starting out great!

Quote: drjohnny
I almost dug my own grave during one of my rolls after I kept hitting point after point! ... At one point ... I finally gave up on betting against myself, so I bet $400 on the pass ... But I lucked out and hit the 4 on the very next roll... At the very end of my session... I was regularly betting $100-200 on the don't with $100-200 odds... I took a beating betting $100-200 on the don't when shooters kept rolling 7's and 11's during come out... :(

OK, Dr. J., you've got to get some discipline here.

*You've got to brush off 'hitting points' in a row like it was play money you lost and stay the course IMO.

*Again, merely my opinion, a superstition really, I suggest NEVER switching sides during a session. That never seems to work out for anyone, indeed consider yourself lucky [$400 on the line? really? the dice usually just go "heh heh now we've got this guy" when they see that][superstition, I admit].

*Your most serious slip in discipline is betting big on the line, and this is not superstition now. You thank the Wizard but this is not going to be his or anybody else's advice. Your bankroll is only adequate for your original plan. If you can't stick with the strategy to bet $5 and have your big money on the odds, this just is going to have a bad ending. It is no guarantee as it is.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

dicesitter

dicesitter

Threads: 32
Posts: 1157

Joined: Jan 17, 2013

July 2nd, 2013 at 7:16:17 AM permalink

I surely agree with the idea this can get awful real quick.

You have to have 100% control of your emotions in craps. This is true for
all players, but even more so for a dont player.

Rule 1..... dont allow a single player to destroy you.
Rule 2......Dont allow a single player to destroy you
Rule 3...... See rules 1 & 2

If you are playing the dont pass with odds and you are throwing or anyone else is throwing
and they hit the first number... thats it.

NOw i have seen many dont players then double the next bet and on and on.... and soon
your broke.

I walked up to the middle 12 footer in O"shea's one day. Guy on the end had thousands
on the rack. the table had been bad and he was cleaning up on the donts.

I got the dice, 54 rolls later he was digging in his pocket to bet the last $5 he had. Why
????????

If i or you or anyone else makes a point or two, take a break go get a soda. He will
be done soon and you will still have your money to get the next guy.

Dicesetter

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 2nd, 2013 at 9:47:44 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
Rule 1..... dont allow a single player to destroy you.
Rule 2......Dont allow a single player to destroy you
Rule 3...... See rules 1 & 2

Good advice.

Next time I play, I'll stop and wait for the next shooter if a single player makes 2 points in a row.

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 5th, 2013 at 1:21:38 PM permalink

Absolutely follow those rules on the don't side. If you are a dark sider, you don't have to bear the brunt of a hot shooter, like the casino does. In fact, if a shooter makes 2 points in a row, I not only will stop the darkside, but also switch to the light side.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

FleaStiff

Threads: 265
Posts: 14484

Joined: Oct 19, 2009

July 5th, 2013 at 1:42:13 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Next time I play, I'll stop and wait for the next shooter if a single player makes 2 points in a row.

NO. Go immediately to the Dark Side. Real Heavy!!

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 6th, 2013 at 8:43:13 AM permalink

I've been doing more simulations at home with random throws and I once hit 8 points in a row.

I definitely need to take a break or switch to the light side after 2 points are hit in a row so I don't get smashed by a single shooter...

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 7th, 2013 at 12:34:54 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
switch to the light side after ....

OK, don't listen to me [g]

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 10th, 2013 at 1:23:08 PM permalink

After doing a crapload more simulations, I've come to the conclusion that this system definitely works better than any other craps system I've tried.

I did encounter some streaks of 7-8 points being made in a row, but I was able to avoid disaster each time after switching to the light side once 2 consecutive points hit.

Winning $500 during my last practice session was almost too easy...

9,11,8,7.................+55
11..........................+50
10,7.......................+105
11..........................+100
8,2,10,9,5,10,7.......+155
9,10,7....................+210
5,8,4,3,9,7.............+265
7...........................+260
5,8,7......................+315
10,11,8,2,7............+370
8,5,11,7.................+425
6,8,12,6.................+360
10,4,8,11,4,4,7.......+415
6,3,6.....................+350
7...........................+345
10,7......................+400
6,3,4,5,9,9,12,3,7...+455
5,7........................+510

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 10th, 2013 at 1:50:53 PM permalink

I agree with your strategy, as i do it myself, but don't be lured into a false sense of easy from these results. It is far more of a grind than this particular simulation implies.

In addition, what the simulation does not show is that when the table is so cold most other players will have left long before you reached the end.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

AcesAndEights

AcesAndEights

Threads: 67
Posts: 4300

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July 10th, 2013 at 2:46:24 PM permalink

Quote: darthvader
I agree with your strategy, as i do it myself, but don't be lured into a false sense of easy from these results. It is far more of a grind than this particular simulation implies.

In addition, what the simulation does not show is that when the table is so cold most other players will have left long before you reached the end.

What, you don't like rolling against yourself? That's when the dark side is the most fun!

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

7craps

Threads: 18
Posts: 1977

Joined: Jan 23, 2010

July 10th, 2013 at 4:04:26 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
After doing a crapload more simulations,
I've come to the conclusion that this system definitely works better than any other craps system I've tried.

I did encounter some streaks of 7-8 points being made in a row,
but I was able to avoid disaster each time after switching to the light side once 2 consecutive points hit.

Winning $500 during my last practice session was almost too easy...

Sometimes you will not win and lose your $2k bankroll.
Sometimes you lose 2 DP in a row with 10X Lay Odds, you switch to pass with 10X odds and 7 out.
Sometimes it will happen.
My first casino session right here

...
Bankroll increased to $2275 ($55 gain) >>>>>>>>>>> so far up $275 (not $500 yet)
------New shooter coming out----------
Don't Pass Odds bet removed
Roll #68: 4 (2.2)
Point established
$100 bet on Don't Pass Odds
Roll #69: 9 (6.3)
Roll #70: 5 (4.1)
Roll #71: 10 (5.5)
Roll #72: 2 (1.1)
Roll #73: 8 (5.3)
Roll #74: 4 (1.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $2170 ($105 loss)
Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
Roll #75: 11 (6.5)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $2165 ($5 loss)
Roll #76: 7 (2.5)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $2160 ($5 loss)
Roll #77: 6 (1.5)
Point established
$60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
Roll #78: 9 (3.6)
Roll #79: 5 (3.2)
Roll #80: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $2095 ($65 loss)
$5 bet on Pass Line
Chip-Stack #1 increased to $2 >>>>>>>>> shooter is HOT. switch to pass line
Roll #81: 10 (6.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #82: 8 (5.3)
Roll #83: 7 (6.1)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $2040 ($55 loss) >>>>>>>This shooter cost me $235 from BOTH sides!
------New shooter coming out----------

session continued...
Chip-Stack #1 increased to $3
Roll #151: 6 (3.3)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #152: 9 (6.3)
Roll #153: 10 (4.6)
Roll #154: 7 (4.3)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $1990 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Now down $10 after 154 rolls (hey that is a magic # in Craps)
Time for dinner
here is the 154 roll session

 New game started
      Beginning bankroll: $2000
------New shooter coming out----------
      Auto-Bets activated (c:\wincraps5.1\my bet stats\dpass-pass-after2pass.bet)
      $5 bet on Don't Pass
 Roll #1:  6 (2.4) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #2:  7 (1.6) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2055 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #3:  9 (3.6) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #4:  9 (5.4) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
      Bankroll decreased to $1975 ($80 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #5:  7 (2.5) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $1970 ($5 loss)
 Roll #6:  12 (6.6) 
      Miss (craps natural)
 Roll #7:  6 (4.2) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #8:  6 (4.2) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
      Bankroll decreased to $1905 ($65 loss)
      $5 bet on Pass Line
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $2
 Roll #9:  8 (4.4) 
      Point established
      $50 bet on Pass Line Odds
 Roll #10:  9 (6.3) 
 Roll #11:  8 (5.3) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Pass Line bet won $5
      Pass Line Odds bet won $60
      Bankroll increased to $1970 ($65 gain)
      Pass Line Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $3
 Roll #12:  10 (6.4) 
      Point established
      $50 bet on Pass Line Odds
 Roll #13:  5 (3.2) 
 Roll #14:  7 (5.2) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Pass Line bet lost $5
      Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
      Bankroll decreased to $1915 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
      $5 bet on Don't Pass
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #15:  5 (3.2) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #16:  7 (2.5) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $1970 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #17:  8 (4.4) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #18:  4 (2.2) 
 Roll #19:  7 (1.6) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2025 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #20:  5 (1.4) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #21:  10 (5.5) 
 Roll #22:  12 (6.6) 
 Roll #23:  9 (4.5) 
 Roll #24:  7 (3.4) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2080 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #25:  7 (4.3) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2075 ($5 loss)
 Roll #26:  5 (1.4) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #27:  11 (5.6) 
 Roll #28:  6 (2.4) 
 Roll #29:  4 (3.1) 
 Roll #30:  7 (1.6) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2130 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #31:  6 (3.3) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #32:  7 (6.1) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2185 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #33:  6 (4.2) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #34:  6 (5.1) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
      Bankroll decreased to $2120 ($65 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #35:  5 (3.2) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #36:  3 (1.2) 
 Roll #37:  2 (1.1) 
 Roll #38:  4 (2.2) 
 Roll #39:  8 (3.5) 
 Roll #40:  7 (6.1) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2175 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #41:  7 (1.6) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2170 ($5 loss)
 Roll #42:  6 (4.2) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #43:  3 (2.1) 
 Roll #44:  7 (4.3) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2225 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #45:  7 (2.5) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2220 ($5 loss)
 Roll #46:  7 (6.1) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2215 ($5 loss)
 Roll #47:  7 (2.5) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2210 ($5 loss)
 Roll #48:  7 (6.1) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2205 ($5 loss)
 Roll #49:  5 (2.3) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #50:  8 (2.6) 
 Roll #51:  6 (4.2) 
 Roll #52:  5 (3.2) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
      Bankroll decreased to $2125 ($80 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #53:  9 (5.4) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #54:  7 (3.4) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2180 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #55:  7 (5.2) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2175 ($5 loss)
 Roll #56:  10 (4.6) 
      Point established
      $100 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #57:  7 (2.5) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2230 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #58:  7 (1.6) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2225 ($5 loss)
 Roll #59:  7 (5.2) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2220 ($5 loss)
 Roll #60:  8 (3.5) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #61:  5 (2.3) 
 Roll #62:  10 (5.5) 
 Roll #63:  5 (4.1) 
 Roll #64:  10 (6.4) 
 Roll #65:  6 (5.1) 
 Roll #66:  6 (4.2) 
 Roll #67:  7 (4.3) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2275 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #68:  4 (2.2) 
      Point established
      $100 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #69:  9 (6.3) 
 Roll #70:  5 (4.1) 
 Roll #71:  10 (5.5) 
 Roll #72:  2 (1.1) 
 Roll #73:  8 (5.3) 
 Roll #74:  4 (1.3) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
      Bankroll decreased to $2170 ($105 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #75:  11 (6.5) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2165 ($5 loss)
 Roll #76:  7 (2.5) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2160 ($5 loss)
 Roll #77:  6 (1.5) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #78:  9 (3.6) 
 Roll #79:  5 (3.2) 
 Roll #80:  6 (1.5) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
      Bankroll decreased to $2095 ($65 loss)
      $5 bet on Pass Line
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $2
 Roll #81:  10 (6.4) 
      Point established
      $50 bet on Pass Line Odds
 Roll #82:  8 (5.3) 
 Roll #83:  7 (6.1) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Pass Line bet lost $5
      Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
      Bankroll decreased to $2040 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
      $5 bet on Don't Pass
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #84:  7 (3.4) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2035 ($5 loss)
 Roll #85:  5 (2.3) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #86:  7 (1.6) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2090 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #87:  12 (6.6) 
      Miss (craps natural)
 Roll #88:  10 (4.6) 
      Point established
      $100 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #89:  11 (5.6) 
 Roll #90:  6 (5.1) 
 Roll #91:  8 (4.4) 
 Roll #92:  7 (4.3) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2145 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #93:  6 (3.3) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #94:  4 (3.1) 
 Roll #95:  11 (5.6) 
 Roll #96:  8 (2.6) 
 Roll #97:  6 (5.1) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
      Bankroll decreased to $2080 ($65 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #98:  8 (2.6) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #99:  6 (3.3) 
 Roll #100:  3 (2.1) 
 Roll #101:  5 (3.2) 
 Roll #102:  5 (3.2) 
 Roll #103:  10 (5.5) 
 Roll #104:  7 (3.4) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2135 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #105:  2 (1.1) 
      Miss (craps natural)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Bankroll increased to $2140 ($5 gain)
 Roll #106:  7 (4.3) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2135 ($5 loss)
 Roll #107:  7 (5.2) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2130 ($5 loss)
 Roll #108:  5 (4.1) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #109:  6 (1.5) 
 Roll #110:  8 (3.5) 
 Roll #111:  7 (3.4) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2185 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
 Roll #112:  3 (1.2) 
      Miss (craps natural)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Bankroll increased to $2190 ($5 gain)
 Roll #113:  4 (2.2) 
      Point established
      $100 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #114:  10 (5.5) 
 Roll #115:  9 (4.5) 
 Roll #116:  10 (6.4) 
 Roll #117:  4 (3.1) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
      Bankroll decreased to $2085 ($105 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #118:  11 (5.6) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2080 ($5 loss)
 Roll #119:  3 (2.1) 
      Miss (craps natural)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Bankroll increased to $2085 ($5 gain)
 Roll #120:  7 (4.3) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2080 ($5 loss)
 Roll #121:  7 (3.4) 
      Pass (natural)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $2075 ($5 loss)
 Roll #122:  8 (4.4) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #123:  9 (4.5) 
 Roll #124:  5 (2.3) 
 Roll #125:  7 (6.1) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Don't Pass bet won $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
      Bankroll increased to $2130 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
      Don't Pass Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 decreased to $0
 Roll #126:  8 (6.2) 
      Point established
      $60 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #127:  5 (1.4) 
 Roll #128:  6 (1.5) 
 Roll #129:  5 (2.3) 
 Roll #130:  5 (4.1) 
 Roll #131:  8 (6.2) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
      Bankroll decreased to $2065 ($65 loss)
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $1
 Roll #132:  5 (1.4) 
      Point established
      $75 bet on Don't Pass Odds
 Roll #133:  8 (3.5) 
 Roll #134:  8 (3.5) 
 Roll #135:  5 (1.4) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Don't Pass bet lost $5
      Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
      Bankroll decreased to $1985 ($80 loss)
      $5 bet on Pass Line
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $2
 Roll #136:  3 (2.1) 
      Miss (craps natural)
      Pass Line bet lost $5
      Bankroll decreased to $1980 ($5 loss)
 Roll #137:  6 (4.2) 
      Point established
      $50 bet on Pass Line Odds
 Roll #138:  3 (1.2) 
 Roll #139:  5 (3.2) 
 Roll #140:  4 (2.2) 
 Roll #141:  10 (6.4) 
 Roll #142:  9 (4.5) 
 Roll #143:  11 (6.5) 
 Roll #144:  4 (1.3) 
 Roll #145:  4 (1.3) 
 Roll #146:  4 (1.3) 
 Roll #147:  10 (4.6) 
 Roll #148:  8 (3.5) 
 Roll #149:  5 (2.3) 
 Roll #150:  6 (4.2) 
      Pass (point rolled)
      Pass Line bet won $5
      Pass Line Odds bet won $60
      Bankroll increased to $2045 ($65 gain)
      Pass Line Odds bet removed
      Chip-Stack #1 increased to $3
 Roll #151:  6 (3.3) 
      Point established
      $50 bet on Pass Line Odds
 Roll #152:  9 (6.3) 
 Roll #153:  10 (4.6) 
 Roll #154:  7 (4.3) 
      Miss (seven-out)
      Pass Line bet lost $5
      Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
      Bankroll decreased to $1990 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------

Good Luck

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 10th, 2013 at 7:25:11 PM permalink

Quote: AcesAndEights
What, you don't like rolling against yourself? That's when the dark side is the most fun!

As a roller, I tend to lose, regardless of which side of the line I play. So I chose to just bet on the dexterity (or lack of) of others.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 13th, 2013 at 6:53:33 PM permalink

I decided to give this system a whirl again at the casino today, but I only brought $1000 and was a bit more conservative in laying $60 odds for most of my bets.

The table was ice cold just like last time and I probably won over 90% of my don't bets.

There were about 3 shooters who gave me some problems by making 2 points in a row, but thankfully they were unable to hit their 3rd.

I was able to maintain much better discipline for this trip and kept my don't bets at $5 before laying odds. This saved me a ton of money and stress since shooters were rolling 7's and 11's like crazy during their come outs.

After a couple of hours, I was able to win $470 without ever betting more than $105 at a time. The only times I dared betting that much was when the point was either a 4 or 10.

So far the Wizard's don't strategy is working much better than I expected in the casino. However, I have to disagree with his strategy of betting don't come every single roll and laying max odds!!!!

Unless you have a huge bankroll, you can easily get wiped out by a hot shooter. Last year I got crushed by a single shooter when I kept betting $25 on don't come. He kept rolling and rolling without sevening out and I almost gave up on craps after that painful experience!

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 14th, 2013 at 7:42:03 AM permalink

So DrJohnny, many lightside players have chastised me for playing the don't, saying "you don't look like you're having any fun." Did you find winning money fun?

And Yes, I agree with you. You have to have an exit strategy when playing the don't. Otherwise, the once in a while killer shooter will wipe you out.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 14th, 2013 at 9:31:17 AM permalink

Quote: darthvader
So DrJohnny, many lightside players have chastised me for playing the don't, saying "you don't look like you're having any fun." Did you find winning money fun?

Winning money is always fun. The downside of playing the Dark Side though is that you can't celebrate your winnings out loud without pissing off other players.

I'm still trying to refine my strategy when I encounter a hot shooter.
Right now I'm considering 3 options if the shooter hits 2 points in a row...

1. Stop betting and wait for the next shooter
2. Switch to the light side and bet the pass line with 10x odds
3. Place the 6 & 8 with the same amount that I normally bet playing the Dark Side

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 14th, 2013 at 11:23:36 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Winning money is always fun. The downside of playing the Dark Side though is that you can't celebrate your winnings out loud without pissing off other players.

I'm still trying to refine my strategy when I encounter a hot shooter.
Right now I'm considering 3 options if the shooter hits 2 points in a row...

1. Stop betting and wait for the next shooter
2. Switch to the light side and bet the pass line with 10x odds
3. Place the 6 & 8 with the same amount that I normally bet playing the Dark Side

If you play the DC instead of the DP, you actually can find yourself rooting for the shooter some of the time. Like to make his point of 10 when you money is on the DC (in order to establish an attractive point for you) and then to root for a come out roll 7 to cash in on all your DC bets that have moved to points.

I have two qualification strategies. First of all, I will removed my DC odds bets when the roll count hits 7. Secondly, I will gingerly start playing the PL once the shooter makes 2 points.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 14th, 2013 at 8:23:23 PM permalink

Playing DC and laying odds on multiple points is too risky in my opinion.

I've loaded up the bases a few times in the past only to have a hot shooter kill me with a monster roll.

By the time a hot shooter gets to 7 rolls, plenty of damage to your bankroll may have already been done.

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 15th, 2013 at 6:08:19 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Playing DC and laying odds on multiple points is too risky in my opinion.

I've loaded up the bases a few times in the past only to have a hot shooter kill me with a monster roll.

By the time a hot shooter gets to 7 rows, plenty of damage to your bankroll may have already been done.

I understand your point. I did some strategy rethinking this weekend and have decided for my next trip that I will play just 1 DC bet with odds.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 16th, 2013 at 1:27:00 PM permalink

My last practice session was interesting.

I quickly went into the hole -$355 before the Dark Side started to show its power. Not including come out rolls, the Dark Side impressively won 14 times in row.

During this session, it definitely helped to stop betting on hot shooters after their 2nd point. Plowing on with more don't bets would've been painful.

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darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 16th, 2013 at 2:41:55 PM permalink

Interesting. Are you running a computer sim or rolling your own dice? In reality, after the dark side won some 4 or 5 times in a row, I think you would have been staring at an empty table.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

7craps

Threads: 18
Posts: 1977

Joined: Jan 23, 2010

July 16th, 2013 at 3:05:01 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
During this session, it definitely helped to stop betting on hot shooters after their 2nd point.
Plowing on with more don't bets would've been painful.

I thought your method was to go with the 'hot shooter' once they hit 2 points

A quick run of your dice rolls in WinCraps shows a low of $655 (with a $1k start)
High of $1685
End $1675 for a $675 profit over the same dice rolls

you really should get WinCraps (its free)
record your rolls into it and it will give you more data than you will know what to do with.
For about $20 it can run simulations for you while you eat, sleep and be merry
here is your session log

Auto-Bets activated (c:\wincraps5.1\my bet stats\dpass-pass-after2pass.bet)
Roll #1: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #2: 9 (3.6)
Roll #3: 4 (1.3)
Roll #4: 8 (6.2)
Roll #5: 10 (4.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $895 ($105 loss)
Roll #6: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $890 ($5 loss)
Roll #7: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #8: 10 (4.6)
Roll #9: 6 (1.5)
Roll #10: 4 (1.3)
Roll #11: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $825 ($65 loss)
Roll #12: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #13: 8 (6.2)
Roll #14: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $770 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #15: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $765 ($5 loss)
Roll #16: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #17: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $685 ($80 loss)
Roll #18: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #19: 9 (3.6)
Roll #20: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $740 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #21: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $735 ($5 loss)
Roll #22: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #23: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $790 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #24: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #25: 11 (5.6)
Roll #26: 9 (3.6)
Roll #27: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $845 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #28: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #29: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $765 ($80 loss)
Roll #30: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #31: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $820 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #32: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $815 ($5 loss)
Roll #33: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #34: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $870 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #35: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #36: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $805 ($65 loss)
Roll #37: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #38: 11 (5.6)
Roll #39: 6 (1.5)
Roll #40: 6 (1.5)
Roll #41: 9 (3.6)
Roll #42: 10 (4.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $700 ($105 loss)
Roll #43: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $705 ($5 gain)
Roll #44: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #45: 12 (6.6)
Roll #46: 6 (1.5)
Roll #47: 9 (3.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $75
Bankroll increased to $785 ($80 gain)
Roll #48: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #49: 6 (1.5)
Roll #50: 6 (1.5)
Roll #51: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $730 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #52: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #53: 10 (4.6)
Roll #54: 4 (1.3)
Roll #55: 2 (1.1)
Roll #56: 10 (4.6)
Roll #57: 8 (6.2)
Roll #58: 9 (3.6)
Roll #59: 3 (1.2)
Roll #60: 5 (1.4)
Roll #61: 11 (5.6)
Roll #62: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $665 ($65 loss)
Roll #63: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $660 ($5 loss)
Roll #64: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $655 ($5 loss)
Roll #65: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #66: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $710 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #67: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #68: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $765 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #69: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #70: 6 (1.5)
Roll #71: 5 (1.4)
Roll #72: 9 (3.6)
Roll #73: 3 (1.2)
Roll #74: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $820 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #75: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $825 ($5 gain)
Roll #76: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $830 ($5 gain)
Roll #77: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #78: 4 (1.3)
Roll #79: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $885 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #80: 11 (5.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $880 ($5 loss)
Roll #81: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $885 ($5 gain)
Roll #82: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #83: 10 (4.6)
Roll #84: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $940 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #85: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #86: 10 (4.6)
Roll #87: 8 (6.2)
Roll #88: 6 (1.5)
Roll #89: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $995 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #90: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #91: 8 (6.2)
Roll #92: 11 (5.6)
Roll #93: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $915 ($80 loss)
Roll #94: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $910 ($5 loss)
Roll #95: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #96: 4 (1.3)
Roll #97: 9 (3.6)
Roll #98: 5 (1.4)
Roll #99: 11 (5.6)
Roll #100: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $845 ($65 loss)
Roll #101: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #102: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $790 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #103: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $785 ($5 loss)
Roll #104: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $780 ($5 loss)
Roll #105: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #106: 8 (6.2)
Roll #107: 8 (6.2)
Roll #108: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $835 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #109: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #110: 9 (3.6)
Roll #111: 11 (5.6)
Roll #112: 8 (6.2)
Roll #113: 2 (1.1)
Roll #114: 12 (6.6)
Roll #115: 10 (4.6)
Roll #116: 6 (1.5)
Roll #117: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $755 ($80 loss)
Roll #118: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #119: 9 (3.6)
Roll #120: 11 (5.6)
Roll #121: 3 (1.2)
Roll #122: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $675 ($80 loss)
Roll #123: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $670 ($5 loss)
Roll #124: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #125: 9 (3.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $75
Bankroll increased to $750 ($80 gain)
Roll #126: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #127: 4 (1.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $100
Bankroll increased to $855 ($105 gain)
Roll #128: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #129: 9 (3.6)
Roll #130: 10 (4.6)
Roll #131: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $800 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #132: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #133: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $735 ($65 loss)
Roll #134: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #135: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $790 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #136: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #137: 4 (1.3)
Roll #138: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $845 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #139: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $840 ($5 loss)
Roll #140: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #141: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $895 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #142: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #143: 4 (1.3)
Roll #144: 8 (6.2)
Roll #145: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $815 ($80 loss)
Roll #146: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #147: 6 (1.5)
Roll #148: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $750 ($65 loss)
Roll #149: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #150: 4 (1.3)
Roll #151: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $815 ($65 gain)
Roll #152: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #153: 4 (1.3)
Roll #154: 8 (6.2)
Roll #155: 8 (6.2)
Roll #156: 4 (1.3)
Roll #157: 10 (4.6)
Roll #158: 9 (3.6)
Roll #159: 9 (3.6)
Roll #160: 3 (1.2)
Roll #161: 10 (4.6)
Roll #162: 8 (6.2)
Roll #163: 4 (1.3)
Roll #164: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $760 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #165: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #166: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $815 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #167: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $820 ($5 gain)
Roll #168: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #169: 8 (6.2)
Roll #170: 5 (1.4)
Roll #171: 9 (3.6)
Roll #172: 9 (3.6)
Roll #173: 5 (1.4)
Roll #174: 5 (1.4)
Roll #175: 4 (1.3)
Roll #176: 10 (4.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $715 ($105 loss)
Roll #177: 11 (5.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $710 ($5 loss)
Roll #178: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #179: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $765 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #180: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #181: 5 (1.4)
Roll #182: 4 (1.3)
Roll #183: 5 (1.4)
Roll #184: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $700 ($65 loss)
Roll #185: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #186: 9 (3.6)
Roll #187: 4 (1.3)
Roll #188: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $755 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #189: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #190: 6 (1.5)
Roll #191: 5 (1.4)
Roll #192: 4 (1.3)
Roll #193: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $810 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #194: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #195: 6 (1.5)
Roll #196: 2 (1.1)
Roll #197: 4 (1.3)
Roll #198: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $865 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #199: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $860 ($5 loss)
Roll #200: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #201: 9 (3.6)
Roll #202: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $915 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #203: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #204: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $970 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #205: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #206: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1025 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #207: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #208: 5 (1.4)
Roll #209: 12 (6.6)
Roll #210: 4 (1.3)
Roll #211: 12 (6.6)
Roll #212: 5 (1.4)
Roll #213: 8 (6.2)
Roll #214: 3 (1.2)
Roll #215: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1080 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #216: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #217: 9 (3.6)
Roll #218: 4 (1.3)
Roll #219: 6 (1.5)
Roll #220: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1135 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #221: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #222: 5 (1.4)
Roll #223: 8 (6.2)
Roll #224: 5 (1.4)
Roll #225: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1190 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #226: 11 (5.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $1185 ($5 loss)
Roll #227: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #228: 8 (6.2)
Roll #229: 5 (1.4)
Roll #230: 9 (3.6)
Roll #231: 12 (6.6)
Roll #232: 8 (6.2)
Roll #233: 9 (3.6)
Roll #234: 4 (1.3)
Roll #235: 11 (5.6)
Roll #236: 8 (6.2)
Roll #237: 12 (6.6)
Roll #238: 4 (1.3)
Roll #239: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1240 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #240: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #241: 9 (3.6)
Roll #242: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1295 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #243: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #244: 10 (4.6)
Roll #245: 6 (1.5)
Roll #246: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1350 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #247: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #248: 5 (1.4)
Roll #249: 10 (4.6)
Roll #250: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1405 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #251: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #252: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1460 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #253: 11 (5.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $1455 ($5 loss)
Roll #254: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #255: 8 (6.2)
Roll #256: 11 (5.6)
Roll #257: 5 (1.4)
Roll #258: 11 (5.6)
Roll #259: 8 (6.2)
Roll #260: 4 (1.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $1350 ($105 loss)
Roll #261: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $1345 ($5 loss)
Roll #262: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $1340 ($5 loss)
Roll #263: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #264: 9 (3.6)
Roll #265: 11 (5.6)
Roll #266: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $1275 ($65 loss)
Roll #267: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #268: 6 (1.5)
Roll #269: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $1340 ($65 gain)
Roll #270: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #271: 8 (6.2)
Roll #272: 9 (3.6)
Roll #273: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $75
Bankroll increased to $1420 ($80 gain)
Roll #274: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #275: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $5
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $1485 ($65 gain)
Roll #276: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #277: 11 (5.6)
Roll #278: 10 (4.6)
Roll #279: 11 (5.6)
Roll #280: 4 (1.3)
Roll #281: 5 (1.4)
Roll #282: 3 (1.2)
Roll #283: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $1430 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #284: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #285: 5 (1.4)
Roll #286: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1485 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #287: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #288: 10 (4.6)
Roll #289: 11 (5.6)
Roll #290: 8 (6.2)
Roll #291: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1540 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #292: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #293: 9 (3.6)
Roll #294: 11 (5.6)
Roll #295: 9 (3.6)
Roll #296: 8 (6.2)
Roll #297: 12 (6.6)
Roll #298: 8 (6.2)
Roll #299: 5 (1.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $75
Bankroll decreased to $1460 ($80 loss)
Roll #300: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #301: 5 (1.4)
Roll #302: 6 (1.5)
Roll #303: 5 (1.4)
Roll #304: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1515 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #305: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #306: 3 (1.2)
Roll #307: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1570 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #308: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #309: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1625 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #310: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Bankroll increased to $1630 ($5 gain)
Roll #311: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #312: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1685 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #313: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #314: 3 (1.2)
Roll #315: 4 (1.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $1580 ($105 loss)
Roll #316: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #317: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $1515 ($65 loss)
Roll #318: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #319: 3 (1.2)
Roll #320: 11 (5.6)
Roll #321: 8 (6.2)
Roll #322: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $5
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $1460 ($55 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #323: 8 (6.2)
Point established
Roll #324: 9 (3.6)
Roll #325: 5 (1.4)
Roll #326: 5 (1.4)
Roll #327: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $1395 ($65 loss)
Roll #328: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #329: 6 (1.5)
Roll #330: 8 (6.2)
Roll #331: 2 (1.1)
Roll #332: 11 (5.6)
Roll #333: 3 (1.2)
Roll #334: 11 (5.6)
Roll #335: 5 (1.4)
Roll #336: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1450 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #337: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #338: 11 (5.6)
Roll #339: 10 (4.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $100
Bankroll decreased to $1345 ($105 loss)
Roll #340: 6 (1.5)
Point established
Roll #341: 10 (4.6)
Roll #342: 8 (6.2)
Roll #343: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1400 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #344: 9 (3.6)
Point established
Roll #345: 5 (1.4)
Roll #346: 4 (1.3)
Roll #347: 4 (1.3)
Roll #348: 6 (1.5)
Roll #349: 6 (1.5)
Roll #350: 8 (6.2)
Roll #351: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1455 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #352: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #353: 3 (1.2)
Roll #354: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1510 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #355: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #356: 12 (6.6)
Roll #357: 8 (6.2)
Roll #358: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1565 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #359: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #360: 11 (5.6)
Roll #361: 11 (5.6)
Roll #362: 3 (1.2)
Roll #363: 6 (1.5)
Roll #364: 2 (1.1)
Roll #365: 8 (6.2)
Roll #366: 9 (3.6)
Roll #367: 9 (3.6)
Roll #368: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1620 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #369: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #370: 6 (1.5)
Roll #371: 4 (1.3)
Roll #372: 3 (1.2)
Roll #373: 6 (1.5)
Roll #374: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $1675 ($55 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------

Have fun at the Craps table

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 16th, 2013 at 4:06:28 PM permalink

Quote: darthvader
Interesting. Are you running a computer sim or rolling your own dice? In reality, after the dark side won some 4 or 5 times in a row, I think you would have been staring at an empty table.

Rolling my own dice. It's funner than running a computer sim.

The Dark Side was easily winning 4-5 times in row the last time I played at the casino. That didn't seem to discourage anyone though as most of the players continued to bet on the pass line.

An empty table would be pretty fun to play at since I could probably make money even faster by setting the dice for 7 after establishing a point. I'm starting to think I have some dice control skills because most of the time I get the dice I'm able to induce a seven out faster than other shooters... :)

Quote: 7craps
I thought your method was to go with the 'hot shooter' once they hit 2 points

I'm reluctant to do that now after seeing very few people get past 2 points.
Maybe I'll try betting with a "hot shooter" if I'm up a good amount.

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 16th, 2013 at 4:51:58 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny

The Dark Side was easily winning 4-5 times in row the last time I played at the casino. That didn't seem to discourage anyone though as most of the players continued to bet on the pass line.

Thank heavens they never learn! More ammo for us darksiders!

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 20th, 2013 at 9:56:02 PM permalink

I've completed at least 10,000 practice rolls over several dozen practice sessions at home and I'm in awe that I'm still winning at least $500 per session without ever going in the hole more than $400.

Some sessions were a real grind and I estimated that they would've taken 5 hours to complete at a table with 2 rolls per minute.

This is my final Dark Side strategy that I plan on using for future casino trips...

1. Bring $1600
2. Bet $5 on the don't and lay 10x odds
3. Stop betting if a shooter makes 2 points in a row and wait for the next shooter
4. Go home once I make $500 profit

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 21st, 2013 at 3:25:13 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
I've completed at least 10,000 practice rolls...I'm still winning at least $500 per session

Wow that's a lot of rolling at home.

Wincraps has shown me it takes millions of rolls, 100s of millions really, to finally show that eventually the House wins at 10x odds with the luckiest theoretical players. That means a player can be a lifetime winner, since millions of rolls at a real casino is not something but maybe a handful of gamblers are ever going to see. To figure that a guy is going to be that winner is just nothing to really expect though, to try it is to go insane. That's if you want my advice, which you didnt ask for.

One thing your simulations aren't showing, for reasons I do not know, is the severe ups and downs the bankroll should be taking, something that Wincraps does pretty consistently show.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 6:05:02 AM permalink

Quote: odiousgambit
One thing your simulations aren't showing, for reasons I do not know, is the severe ups and downs the bankroll should be taking, something that Wincraps does pretty consistently show.

In my 2nd post of this thread, I did show that my bankroll had positive and negative swings of up to $2K.

I bet the don't with 20x odds every single roll for that session and several "hot shooters" hurt me pretty badly.

It seems like my negative swings are much lower now that I've started laying 10x odds and stopped betting once a "hot shooter" hits 2 points in a row.

I have confidence this craps strategy will win back all the money that I've lost over the years using the Martingale in roulette, blackjack, and baccarat... LOL

My eventual goal is to build up my bankroll to $100K so I can afford laying 50x odds at a $10 table.

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 21st, 2013 at 6:37:58 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
My eventual goal is to build up my bankroll to $100K so I can afford laying 50x odds at a $10 table.

I'm rooting for you. Ambitious goal, if that bankroll is to come from gambling.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 7:04:51 AM permalink

Quote: odiousgambit
I'm rooting for you. Ambitious goal, if that bankroll is to come from gambling.

Archie Karas is my inspiration :D

FleaStiff

Threads: 265
Posts: 14484

Joined: Oct 19, 2009

July 21st, 2013 at 7:51:25 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
My eventual goal is to build up my bankroll to $100K so I can afford laying 50x odds at a $10 table.

This will take you 107 percent of the time it would take to build up your bankroll to 100K and TAKE 50x odds at a $10 table.

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 10:03:28 AM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
This will take you 107 percent of the time it would take to build up your bankroll to 100K and TAKE 50x odds at a $10 table.

I would never be foolish enough to bet the pass and take 50x odds unless there were dice controllers at the table who consistently hit their points.

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 6:51:03 PM permalink

Just completed my most brutal practice session yet!

9,6,3,2,7____________________________+55
10,2,8,12,5,8,5,10_____________________-50
10,5,2,5,7___________________________+5
10,6,7______________________________+60
2__________________________________+65
7__________________________________+60
3__________________________________+65
2__________________________________+70
11_________________________________+65
6,8,11,10,7__________________________+120
5,5_________________________________+40
3__________________________________+45
11_________________________________+40
7__________________________________+35
9,8,9_______________________________-45
4,7
3__________________________________-40
8,7________________________________+15
7__________________________________+10
11_________________________________+5
6,9,10,2,12,8,6_______________________-60
9,8,4,8,10,5,5,6,3,7___________________-5
8,8_________________________________-70
5,11,8,9,6,8,7________________________-15
10,6,7______________________________+40
3__________________________________+45
8,7________________________________+100
3__________________________________+105
5,10,6,8,5___________________________+25
11_________________________________+20
4,9,10,9,10,8,3,5,11,3,9,10,6,5,3,11,12,4__-85
9,9
10,4,6,12,5,4,6,6,2,6,5,6,6,9,6,5,9,7
10,4,7______________________________-30
2__________________________________-25
8,6,7_______________________________+30
11_________________________________+25
7__________________________________+20
10,8,6,6,6,3,5,4,8,5,4,7________________+75
6,5,4,7_____________________________+130
4,11,10,7___________________________+185
9,6,6,3,4,8,9________________________+105
5,3,4,2,10,3,7_______________________+160
7__________________________________+155
7__________________________________+150
6,7________________________________+205
10,2,6,5,3,5,2,6,6,3,4,2,10_____________+100
6,2,11,7____________________________+155
5,7________________________________+210
7__________________________________+205
10,7_______________________________+260
3__________________________________+265
4,9,4_______________________________+160
5,8,3,7_____________________________+215
5,5________________________________+135
4,5,5,4_____________________________+30
5,4,8,5
5,5
9,11,9
4,7
2__________________________________+35
10,10_______________________________-70
6,6_________________________________-135
11
6,3,9,7
4,12,5,5,8,6,7_________________________-80
3___________________________________-75
9,8,6,10,8,7__________________________-20
2___________________________________-15
7___________________________________-20
8,5,12,3,11,6,5,7_____________________+35
4,6,7_______________________________+90
7__________________________________+85
5,3,3,8,10,5_________________________+5
8,9,8_______________________________-60
5,8,7
10,10_______________________________-165
8,8_________________________________-230
7
7
9,6,6,8,7
10,4,7_______________________________-175
2___________________________________-170
7___________________________________-175
11__________________________________-180
6,3,5,4,6_____________________________-245
10,9,10______________________________-350
5,7
2___________________________________-345
7___________________________________-350
7___________________________________-355
4,7_________________________________-300
9,8,3,7______________________________-245
4,3,7________________________________-190
6,10,5,10,4,5,11,7_____________________-135
4,9,9,7______________________________-80
7___________________________________-85
4,12,9,4_____________________________-190
8,8_________________________________-255
11
9,6,6,6,6,3,8,6,6,11,9
5,4,3,6,6,8,2,9,6,9,5
10,7
6,9,4,4,7____________________________-200
6,8,8,6______________________________-265
9,7_________________________________-210
6,9,9,4,5,8,5,8,5,7____________________-155
4,8,4_______________________________-260
10,5,8,3,6,9,6,6,4,7___________________-205
7__________________________________-210
6,6_________________________________-275
3__________________________________-270
10,5,11,10 __________________________-375
8,9,8
6,3,9,4,9,10,8,9,2,7
7__________________________________-380
3__________________________________-375
8,11,6,4,8___________________________-440
2__________________________________-435
9,11,4,5,5,3,4,10,6,7__________________-380
5,8,11,3,8,9,8,4,6,11,5_________________-460
6,2,5,9,7____________________________-405
6,9,8,11,3,9,7________________________-350
9,3,2,6,7____________________________-295
7__________________________________-300
4,6,10,9,5,5,12,11,8,8,6,8,7_____________-245
10,6,6,10____________________________-350
7__________________________________-355
11_________________________________-360
9,8,7_______________________________-305
8,8_________________________________-370
8,11,6,10,6,4,5,6,6,9,8_________________-435
4,10,2,8,7
5,5_________________________________-515
2___________________________________-510
8,7_________________________________-455
10,4,5,5,7___________________________-400
9,7_________________________________-345
8,7_________________________________-290
7___________________________________-295
8,11,4,4,8____________________________-360
6,8,7________________________________-305
8,8_________________________________-370
5,11,6,10,6,10,7______________________-315
4,6,6,8,11,8,7________________________-260
4,5,10,6,8,10,5,6,4____________________-365
6,4,8,9,6____________________________-430
3
5,5
6,6
7
3
8,12,6,5,3,5,5,3,8
8,6,10,7
4,6,8,2,8,3,5,5,5,3,7___________________-375
7___________________________________-380
10,7________________________________-325
4,7_________________________________-270
8,9,12,7_____________________________-215
7___________________________________-220
6,7_________________________________-165
7___________________________________-170
7___________________________________-175
8,4,11,3,6,7__________________________-120
6,9,6________________________________-185
8,10,9,10,6,6,7________________________-130
6,7_________________________________-75
5,3,7________________________________-20
4,8,7________________________________+35
8,4,9,7______________________________+90
8,6,10,5,3,4,7________________________+145
8,3,5,7______________________________+200
4,4_________________________________+95
7__________________________________+90
7__________________________________+85
3__________________________________+90
9,4,11,11,10,8,8,7____________________+145
5,10,8,6,8,7_________________________+200
5,6,8,9,4,8,3,5_______________________+120
9,7________________________________+175
4,11,7______________________________+230
2__________________________________+235
5,5________________________________+155
7__________________________________+150
10,7_______________________________+205
7__________________________________+200
7__________________________________+195
7__________________________________+190
7__________________________________+185
6,7________________________________+240
6,3,8,9,7____________________________+295
7__________________________________+290
6,7________________________________+345
5,7________________________________+400
5,12,3,4,2,7_________________________+455
7__________________________________+450
4,5,7_______________________________+505

I'm going to need a chair at the craps table in order to survive sessions this long!

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 8:03:17 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
I've completed at least 10,000 practice rolls over several dozen practice sessions at home and I'm in awe that I'm still winning at least $500 per session without ever going in the hole more than $400.

Some sessions were a real grind and I estimated that they would've taken 5 hours to complete at a table with 2 rolls per minute.

This is my final Dark Side strategy that I plan on using for future casino trips...

1. Bring $1600
2. Bet $5 on the don't and lay 10x odds
3. Stop betting if a shooter makes 2 points in a row and wait for the next shooter
4. Go home once I make $500 profit

I absolutely agree on the merits of the darkside. FWIW, I have found playing the DC even better than the DP. First of all, playing the DC doesn't get the nasty looks that you often get from the DP (if such a thing matters to you). But practically speaking, there is a huge advantage to playing the DC: It is impossible to get beaten down by a single shooter hitting multiple 7s on the come out roll. But whatever you do, best of luck on your next trip.

Darth

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

7craps

Threads: 18
Posts: 1977

Joined: Jan 23, 2010

July 21st, 2013 at 8:08:33 PM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Just completed my most brutal practice session yet!

689 rolls still can be done in one day.
Using your 'change to pass after 2 point loss method'
produced a drawdown of $500
and a final net win of $620 after 689 rolls

on the 681st roll you end up at $510.
I am 100% certain you would have stopped there

I did forget to change the starting bankroll to $1600. You did not need it for this session

The beauty of WinCraps is one can, now in WinCraps Pro, have 8 different betting systems running at the same time.
sim (or enter your rolls as you get them) and compare.

I still like the 'switch to the pass line method' with a hot shooter.
That is just me.

IMO, you still need to lose your starting bankroll at least one time
because, on average,
you will 23 out of 100 sessions played with your win goal
got to get used to it

Good Luck next session(s)

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 21st, 2013 at 11:53:29 PM permalink

Quote: 7craps
I still like the 'switch to the pass line method' with a hot shooter.

Completed another practice session and I reverted back to that method.
Don't think I'll use it in the casino since way too many shooters this session made 2 points and then sevened out.

Also kept playing after reaching $500 profit to see how much more I could make.

After reaching +$510, the Dark Side suddenly lost its power and disaster struck!

8,4,9,2,9,3,8________________________________________-65
6,7________________________________________________-10
8,5,4,7____________________________________________+45
8,7_______________________________________________+100
3_________________________________________________+105
9,9_______________________________________________+25
2_________________________________________________+30
6,5,5,9,8,4,7________________________________________+85
8,7_______________________________________________+140
7_________________________________________________+135
6,10,10,7__________________________________________+190
6,7_______________________________________________+245
7_________________________________________________+240
8,9,3,7____________________________________________+295
8,7_______________________________________________+350
7_________________________________________________+345
3_________________________________________________+350
8,4,5,3,8__________________________________________+285
4,8,10,8,5,7________________________________________+340
7_________________________________________________+335
5,5_______________________________________________+255
8,11,9,4,6,7________________________________________+310
11________________________________________________+305
9,9_______________________________________________+225
4,3,3,7____________________________________________+280
6,12,7_____________________________________________+335
10,6,10____________________________________________+230
7_________________________________________________+225
11________________________________________________+220
8,2,4,4,8___________________________________________+155
6,8,7______________________________________________+100
5,9,8,9,3,7_________________________________________+155
4,10,7_____________________________________________+210
3_________________________________________________+215
10,9,7_____________________________________________+270
7_________________________________________________+265
7_________________________________________________+260
8,9,7______________________________________________+315
6,5,7______________________________________________+370
8,6,6,6,8___________________________________________+305
9,4,8,5,6,9_________________________________________+225
5,4,5______________________________________________+305
4,2,8,7____________________________________________+250
4,5,8,4____________________________________________+145
7_________________________________________________+140
4,11,3,10,7________________________________________+195
5,6,7_____________________________________________+250
6,7_______________________________________________+305
7________________________________________________+300
5,4,8,9,9,4,7_______________________________________+355
7________________________________________________+350
10,8,9,5,4,8,7______________________________________+405
10,7______________________________________________+460
7________________________________________________+455
8,7_______________________________________________+510
7________________________________________________+505
6,6_______________________________________________+440
9,9_______________________________________________+360
11_______________________________________________+365
8,7_______________________________________________+310
5,8,6,8,4,4,11,6,9,7_________________________________+365
5,9,7_____________________________________________+420
6,6______________________________________________+355
9,7______________________________________________+410
10,8,4,4,6,8,7______________________________________+465
7________________________________________________+460
7________________________________________________+455
8,8______________________________________________+390
8,12,5,8__________________________________________+325
7________________________________________________+330
5,4,12,7__________________________________________+275
4,11,8,2,4________________________________________+170
4,12,8,9,10,10,6,7__________________________________+225
7________________________________________________+220
6,9,9,6___________________________________________+155
2________________________________________________+160
7________________________________________________+155
6,12,10,8,8,6______________________________________+90
4,6,7_____________________________________________+35
7________________________________________________+30
7________________________________________________+25
7________________________________________________+20
7________________________________________________+15
6,11,2,6___________________________________________-50
2________________________________________________-45
5,6,9,9,11,8,5______________________________________-125
5,7______________________________________________-180
4,4______________________________________________-285
5,7______________________________________________-230
4,7______________________________________________-175
8,12,4,5,3,7_______________________________________-120
4,11,10,6,4_______________________________________-225
4,6,8,8,4_________________________________________-330
3_______________________________________________-335
8,8______________________________________________-270
8,7______________________________________________-325
8,7______________________________________________-270
10,4,8,7__________________________________________-215
8,5,8____________________________________________-280
3________________________________________________-275
9,5,9_____________________________________________-355
6,11,7____________________________________________-410
6,9,3,10,7_________________________________________-355
7________________________________________________-360
8,8______________________________________________-425
8,5,4,11,4,5,9,6,2,7_________________________________-370
9,8,8,9___________________________________________-450
8,12,6,6,8_________________________________________-515
7________________________________________________-510
9,3,7_____________________________________________-565
6,2,6_____________________________________________-630
9,10,9____________________________________________-710
4,6,8,3,6,9,6,2,5,6,6,8,11,9,6,10,9,8,3,8,8,2,9,4__________-605
7________________________________________________-600
9,4,5,4,6,6,5,7_____________________________________-655
6,8,11,7___________________________________________-600
5,7______________________________________________-545
9,6,6,8,10,6,9______________________________________-625
7________________________________________________-630
3________________________________________________-625
6,9,9,5,7__________________________________________-570
3________________________________________________-565
4,6,4_____________________________________________-670
8,6,8_____________________________________________-735
9,6,6,8,10,7_______________________________________-790
10,4,9,4,4,8,7______________________________________-735
7________________________________________________-740
5,5_______________________________________________-820
7________________________________________________-825
8,5,8_____________________________________________-890
10,8,5,7___________________________________________-945
7________________________________________________-950
6,9,6_____________________________________________-1015
8,10,6,8__________________________________________-1080
11_______________________________________________-1075
10,10_____________________________________________-970
7________________________________________________-965
7________________________________________________-960
3________________________________________________-965
6,8,6_____________________________________________-1030
10,4,8,6,7_________________________________________-975
8,7______________________________________________-920
8,6,6,4,8__________________________________________-985
4,5,8,7___________________________________________-930
5,7_______________________________________________-875
7________________________________________________-880
6,7_______________________________________________-825
9,7______________________________________________-770
3________________________________________________-765
7________________________________________________-770
5,7______________________________________________-715
6,7______________________________________________-660
9,9______________________________________________-740
4,6,10,11,11,11,6,7_________________________________-685
6,7______________________________________________-630
8,9,7_____________________________________________-575
7_______________________________________________-580
10,9,9,3,6,10______________________________________-685
10,4,8,9,8,8,10____________________________________-790
9,10,6,7__________________________________________-845
7________________________________________________-850
7________________________________________________-855
2________________________________________________-850
7________________________________________________-855
8,7______________________________________________-800
3________________________________________________-795
3________________________________________________-790
10,9,7____________________________________________-735
11_______________________________________________-740
9,8,6,6,8,9_________________________________________-820
8,5,7_____________________________________________-765
8,5,5,9,4,7________________________________________-710
7________________________________________________-715
6,8,6_____________________________________________-780
10,11,3,6,8,8,11,6,6,3,10____________________________-885
11_______________________________________________-880
12_______________________________________________-885
5,5______________________________________________-805
5,5______________________________________________-725
6,9,6_____________________________________________-660
4,6,7_____________________________________________-715
10,6,4,10_________________________________________-820
9,5,7_____________________________________________-765
8,7______________________________________________-710
4,9,12,8,8,3,5,4____________________________________-815
7________________________________________________-820
8,8______________________________________________-885
5,3,9,10,9,6,6,6,5__________________________________-805
7________________________________________________-800
11_______________________________________________-795
8,9,4,7___________________________________________-850
10,7_____________________________________________-795
8,6,9,7___________________________________________-740
3________________________________________________-735
9,3,11,12,5,5,6,10,7________________________________-680
10,8,10___________________________________________-785
6,6______________________________________________-850
4,11,3,6,9,8,11,7___________________________________-905
7________________________________________________-910
9,9______________________________________________-990
3________________________________________________-985
6,4,4,7___________________________________________-930
7________________________________________________-935
10,9,11,12,10______________________________________-1040
7________________________________________________-1045
10,8,9,7___________________________________________-990
7_________________________________________________-995
6,8,3,7____________________________________________-940
9,7_______________________________________________-885
4,6,8,7____________________________________________-830
8,10,8____________________________________________-895
8,10,11,5,5,8_______________________________________-960
6,10,7____________________________________________-1015
3________________________________________________-1010
6,7_______________________________________________-955
8,2,7_____________________________________________-900
7________________________________________________-905
4,5,4_____________________________________________-1010
6,4,11,4,6_________________________________________-1075
8,2,10,6,9,8_______________________________________-1010
6,9,5,6___________________________________________-945
8,6,10,10,6,9,8_____________________________________-880
4,7______________________________________________-935
10,12,2,8,10_______________________________________-1040
8,9,6,12,11,10,10,6,6,7______________________________-985
4,2,6,10,6,4_______________________________________-1090
4,7______________________________________________-1035
10,2,5,5,5,6,11,7___________________________________-980
4,7______________________________________________-925
10,6,5,5,5,7_______________________________________-870
9,5,9_____________________________________________-950
9,9______________________________________________-1030
8,4,6,5,8__________________________________________-965
8,8_______________________________________________-900
7________________________________________________-895
6,7_______________________________________________-950
9,8,8,5,9__________________________________________-1030
10,5,6,11,9,4,8,5,3,10_______________________________-1135
4,11,8,4__________________________________________-1030
6,4,8,7___________________________________________-1085
7________________________________________________-1090
11_______________________________________________-1095
6,7_______________________________________________-1040
8,4,3,11,9,6,7______________________________________-985
6,10,9,4,4,10,4,7____________________________________-930
7_________________________________________________-935
2_________________________________________________-930
9,8,5,3,8,7_________________________________________-875
7_________________________________________________-880
2_________________________________________________-875
10,8,11,5,6,8,4,6,12,7________________________________-820
8,8_______________________________________________-885
3_________________________________________________-880
7_________________________________________________-885
3_________________________________________________-880
2_________________________________________________-875
7_________________________________________________-880
5,8,5______________________________________________-960
8,4,4,8____________________________________________-895
11________________________________________________-890
7_________________________________________________-885
12________________________________________________-890
9,10,5,6,3,11,10,9___________________________________-810
4,6,3,6,6,9,10,6,6,10,5,10,8,3,6,5,10,6,3,9,6,7____________-865
9,4,6,5,8,3,6,11,11,6,10,4,3,5,4,7______________________-810
3_________________________________________________-805
9,4,8,7____________________________________________-750
8,6,3,9,7__________________________________________-695
3_________________________________________________-690
7_________________________________________________-695
3_________________________________________________-690
8,5,7______________________________________________-635
7_________________________________________________-640
8,8_______________________________________________-705
10,7______________________________________________-650
2_________________________________________________-645
2_________________________________________________-640
3_________________________________________________-635
4,5,11,7___________________________________________-580
5,2,9,7____________________________________________-525
10,5,4,6,2,7________________________________________-460
5,6,5______________________________________________-540
5,11,6,10,6,8,6,4,6,3,7_______________________________-485
9,3,6,8,9___________________________________________-565
7_________________________________________________-570
8,6,8______________________________________________-635
3_________________________________________________-640
6,8,6______________________________________________-575
7_________________________________________________-570
9,10,11,3,7_________________________________________-625
2_________________________________________________-620
6,8,12,7___________________________________________-565
10,11,11,11,5,2,9,12,5,9,7____________________________-510
7_________________________________________________-515
2_________________________________________________-510
10,6,6,8,10_________________________________________-615
8,7________________________________________________-560
8,7________________________________________________-505
9,7________________________________________________-450
5,6,8,3,6,10,6,10,4,6,7________________________________-395
6,6________________________________________________-460
9,3,8,6,4,4,7________________________________________-405
6,7________________________________________________-350
7__________________________________________________-355
11_________________________________________________-360
7__________________________________________________-365
8,7________________________________________________-310
6,9,3,3,8,5,10,4,8,7__________________________________-255
4,7_______________________________________________-200
6,10,9,12,6_________________________________________-265
5,7_______________________________________________-210
5,4,8,11,6,10,4,6,7__________________________________-155
4,7_______________________________________________-100
6,4,3,9,11,8,8,2,8,7__________________________________-45
7_________________________________________________-50
8,7_______________________________________________+5
10,6,2,8,5,8,3,9,6,7__________________________________+60
4,11,8,11,10,9,5,10,8,9,4______________________________-45
7_________________________________________________-50
7_________________________________________________-55
8,6,9,6,4,5,8________________________________________-120
11________________________________________________-115
6,9,6______________________________________________-50
7_________________________________________________-45
5,4,8,8,9,9,6,4,2,2,5_________________________________+35
8,9,4,11,4,8________________________________________+100
7_________________________________________________+105
5,7_______________________________________________+50
8,10,4,10,6,4,6,9,7__________________________________+105
7________________________________________________+100
7________________________________________________+95
10,4,8,5,4,6,4,5,11,5,4,7_____________________________+150
2________________________________________________+155
9,5,6,10,8,6,7______________________________________+210
5,9,4,11,7_________________________________________+265
5,6,9,7____________________________________________+320
5,7_______________________________________________+375
7________________________________________________+370
8,10,8____________________________________________+305
7________________________________________________+300
10,8,5,8,10________________________________________+195
8,8______________________________________________+260
11_______________________________________________+265
8,10,11,2,8________________________________________+330
7________________________________________________+335
7________________________________________________+340
7________________________________________________+345
5,9,5_____________________________________________+425
9,8,6,3,5,8,7_______________________________________+370
7________________________________________________+365
7________________________________________________+360
6,8,6_____________________________________________+295
3________________________________________________+300
5,7_______________________________________________+355
9,8,4,8,6,7________________________________________+410
3________________________________________________+415
5,9,5_____________________________________________+335
8,2,6,8___________________________________________+270
12_______________________________________________+265
9,11,6,9__________________________________________+345
8,4,4,8___________________________________________+410
10,7_____________________________________________+355
3________________________________________________+360
3________________________________________________+365
5,11,10,5_________________________________________+285
4,9,7_____________________________________________+340
6,6______________________________________________+275
3________________________________________________+280
6,10,8,7__________________________________________+335
4,7______________________________________________+390
7________________________________________________+385
8,9,7____________________________________________+440
9,10,8,6,10,4,5,8,11,8,8,5,11,9_______________________+360
11______________________________________________+355
8,10,2,12,6,7_____________________________________+410
8,11,6,4,12,5,8____________________________________+345
4,4______________________________________________+240
6,3,7____________________________________________+185
10,9,7___________________________________________+240
8,5,3,9,5,8_______________________________________+175
5,8,8,8,11,6,7_____________________________________+230
9,3,9____________________________________________+150
5,7_____________________________________________+205
8,11,4,6,9,7______________________________________+260
11______________________________________________+255
8,9,7____________________________________________+310
7_______________________________________________+305
5,8,7____________________________________________+360
5,2,9,5__________________________________________+280
7_______________________________________________+275
6,7_____________________________________________+330
6,2,9,10,7________________________________________+385
8,5,5,5,6,7_______________________________________+440
9,5,8,5,3,8,9______________________________________+360
6,5,10,12,4,2,7____________________________________+415
6,7______________________________________________+470
10,7_____________________________________________+525

FleaStiff

Threads: 265
Posts: 14484

Joined: Oct 19, 2009

July 22nd, 2013 at 3:49:24 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny

1. Bring $1600
2. Bet $5 on the don't and lay 10x odds
3. Stop betting if a shooter makes 2 points in a row and wait for the next shooter
4. Go home once I make $500 profit

>Go home once I make $500 profit... seems a wasted trip. Oh better than going home with losses, but ... .

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 24th, 2013 at 9:19:18 PM permalink

Just got back from the casino.

The beginning was a bit rough and I quickly went $150 into the hole after betting against a hot shooter.

I stuck to my system and stopped betting after he made 2 points.

After he hit his 3rd point and started working toward his 4th point of 8, I got impatient and placed the 6 & 8 for $30 each.

He eventually hit his 8 and I finally decided to go with the flow and bet the pass with $25 odds.

He hit his point again and I was about to bet the pass a 2nd time, but my friend said there was no way he'd make a 6th point.

I had a feeling he was right, so I went back to betting the don't and laying 10x odds.

After what seemed like an eternal roll, he finally sevened out.

It was smooth sailing playing the Dark Side after that shooter and I ended up with about $300 profit within an hour.

We ate at the casino's steakhouse and we were a little annoyed that we couldn't get comped even a few dollars (the pit boss told us our big odds bets didn't count towards any comps), so we decided to play some more after dinner in order to negate the $90 tab... LOL

I quickly made another $150, but then my friend started killing me by hitting 3 points in a row!

This time I didn't stick to my system and after losing on his 3rd point (a $105 loss on the 4), I started going on tilt... :(

I bet $100 on the field and of course he rolled an 8.

I bet $100 two more times on the field and luckily won those.

I decided to make one last field bet of $50 and he hit a 2 for a double payout... :)

From that point on almost all rolls at the table ended with a seven out to my delight.

On my final roll, I decided to test my dice controlling skills for fun and ended up risking a total of $35 on 4 different numbers.

I'm still kicking myself over that because I quickly sevened out without hitting any of my numbers.

I should've just bet against myself like I usually do! LOL

After that, I decided to cash out since I had made enough to pay for my $45 steak and my total profit of the day was just over $500.

Next time I play, maybe I'll reduce my win goal to just $300 since it seems like I'm prone to going on tilt after a couple hours of play.

FleaStiff

Threads: 265
Posts: 14484

Joined: Oct 19, 2009

July 24th, 2013 at 11:26:53 PM permalink

I remember one a young man and his wife were running thru a casino out to the sidewalk where they had each left the kid and the stroller in the charge of the other. After some calming down by security everything was fine since it was clearly miscommunication and not an attempt at free child care.

Sort of reminded me of the way you follow a system.

The trouble is: it sort of reminded me of the way I tend to follow a system also!

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 25th, 2013 at 4:07:45 AM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Sort of reminded me of the way you follow a system.

The trouble is: it sort of reminded me of the way I tend to follow a system also!

As it stands, I'm not sure what to do next time I encounter a hot shooter.

7craps' computer simulations show it shouldn't affect my win rate in the long run if I switch to the right side after 2 points, so maybe I'll do that since I don't want to miss out when the entire table is making money off a hot shooter.

darthvader

Threads: 11
Posts: 226

Joined: Jul 7, 2012

July 25th, 2013 at 6:00:21 AM permalink

Thanks for the update, Johnny. Betting on tilt, as you reported, is often a road to ruin. Good that it didn't ruin you. Yes, your odds bets won't earn any comps, as the house has no mathematical edge on those. I switch to the rightside after 2 points. Yes, he could seven out on that point, but, on the other hand, it is way painful to watch a hot roll and get none of it.

Either way, a $500 profit is a healthy and successful win. Good job.

7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 26th, 2013 at 4:55:27 AM permalink

I'm glad you were lucky, but I can't help but notice you went off your system that keeps you up against less than 0.2% HE to take your chances with place bets and field bets. Hey, that can be a lot of fun and you haven't gone to middle-table bets, the sucker bets. But, just saying I noticed. You didn't go off-system with your home practice, right?

More evidence it's just going to be different in a Casino than at home.

I've held off pointing out that some of the advice you have been getting here is un-Wizardly ... nay, more like "the kind of advice the Wizard hates".

There's no harm in cutting back on your betting due to something going on at the table, the less your action the less you lose, thus why squawk when someone says to quit betting against a hot shooter? [I was thinking]. But now you are saying you are dropping off your system and going with other bets based on whether a shooter is hot or not. This is evidence you are buying into a Fallacy, that the past in Craps affects the future. When someone points out a shooter has been hot, making two of his points, he is pointing to the past. All loud and crowing claims to the contrary, no one has ever demonstrated that said shooter is any more likely than anyone else to repeat his luck when he picks up the dice on the next Coming Out.

Hypocritically perhaps, I get excited as anyone about a hot shooter, even though I know we are just getting excited about the past. But I stick to my bets. If before that shooter started shooting my betting was against a 0.37% HE then when I jump on board hoping to see more my betting is still going to be up against that same 0.37%. I surely will increase my Come betting and I will probably start increasing my action per bet, too, if it is going well. On the rare occasion, I'll drop $30 on a place bet to make sure both the 6 and 8 are covered, this when the shooter is just seemingly incapable of 7-out. Outside of this rare exception, then, I can say to myself when I have left that Casino that all my Craps action, win or lose, was overall still very close to that HE and surely overall less than 0.5%

My unsolicited advice: react however you like against the successful shooter to have fun, but never let it allow you to make the wrong bets. Then next thing you know, you'll be Mr. Middle-table just like 90% of the players you see around you.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

drjohnny

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July 26th, 2013 at 6:50:00 AM permalink

Quote: odiousgambit
Then next thing you know, you'll be Mr. Middle-table just like 90% of the players you see around you.

I have yet to risk a dollar on the middle table after watching the Wizard's videos and seeing my friend go broke numerous times from making sucker bet after sucker bet.

The next time I play, I'll try my hardest to avoid more foolish field bets.

However, if a shooter manages to hit 3 points and I'm up at that point, maybe I'll take my chances against a 1.5% house edge and make $30 place bets on the 6 & 8.

I know this place bet strategy is un-Wizardly, but I've made pretty good profit these past couple years following trends in baccarat and bumping up my bets during hot shoes. However, I don't plan on pressing any of my bets in craps since I fear the seven too much.

drjohnny

Threads: 32
Posts: 170

Joined: Sep 2, 2012

July 27th, 2013 at 5:15:47 AM permalink

Got crushed by a table full of hot shooters last night! :-(

Decided to go the casino last night with a different friend.

He contributed $300 to a $1500 bankroll in hopes of taking a 20% cut of the profit.

I quickly went up about $200 within the first half hour but then many of the shooters started making point after point!

Several shooters were able to make 3-5 points much to my dismay.

I initially stuck to my system of stopping after 2 points and waiting for the next shooter, but the hot shooters chipped away at my bankroll nonstop and I started to go on tilt. Before I knew it, I started laying bigger odds that exceeded $100 and it didn't take long for my bankroll to go under a grand.

Both my friend and I started to lose hope in the Dark Side and he gave me the go ahead to start betting $10 on the pass with $100 odds.

This worked pretty well as one shooter almost made me even by hitting the 4 twice.

After he sevened out, I got the dice and disaster struck at an unprecedented level!

I couldn't seven out if my life depended on it and I must have made 5 points in a row... LOL

I had been playing well over 2 hours at this point and as you can probably guess, I went on full tilt by betting huge on the don't with huge odds. At the very end I pissed away several hundred by betting on the field and after I lost $1.5K, I took out an additional $100 from my wallet and foolishly bet it on the field. ;-(

If I decide to play again in a few weeks, I need to protect myself better from hot shooters by stopping if a shooter makes a single point.

I just went over a previous practice session which had a record low of -$1135. In that session I switched to the pass with 10x odds if a shooter made 2 points in a row and stayed there until a seven out. I wanted to compare the results to a new system of simply stopping after 1 point and waiting for the next shooter. To my surprise, the low with the new system was only -$330. The high was +$900 and I finished at +$685 while the old system finished at +$525. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have busted out last night had I used that safer system...

odiousgambit

Threads: 327
Posts: 9775

Joined: Nov 9, 2009

July 27th, 2013 at 5:19:21 AM permalink

Quote: drjohnny
Got crushed by a table full of hot shooters last night! :-(

Hello, maybe I have to take back what I said in the other thread about "where's the volatility?"

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

drjohnny