drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
• Posts: 167
June 29th, 2013 at 11:57:04 PM permalink
There's a casino near me with a favorable \$5 minimum and 20x odds.

I plan on testing the Wizard's optimal strategy of betting the minimum on don't pass and backing it up with max odds since the house edge is only 0.00067.

If I have a \$2k bankroll, what is the probability that I make \$500 profit before busting out?
How will my risk of ruin change if I play with 10x odds instead?
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
June 30th, 2013 at 9:09:23 PM permalink
Sounds a lot like Main Street Station in Downtown Las Vegas with \$5 and 20X odds.

\$2k bankroll trying to build into a \$2.5k bank.

Simple RoT would be (2k/2.5k) - 1.36%

sim data

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 129.82
Avg. No. games tied . . = 3.71
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 450.81
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.676% of the time ( 216760)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.324% of the time ( 783240)

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 361.21
Avg. No. games tied . . = 10.32
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1254.30
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.742% of the time ( 217417)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.258% of the time ( 782583)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 125.54
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 423.87
Avg. Total amount bet . = 125.54
Bankroll was busted . . = 22.281% of the time ( 222811)
Win goal was met . . . = 77.719% of the time ( 777189)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 372.81
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1258.62
Bankroll was busted . . = 21.959% of the time ( 219594)
Win goal was met . . . = 78.041% of the time ( 780406)

looks to be very close for all 4 methods of play
same \$5 line bets with the odds

If you do not want to play as long as the average length of time shown in the sim data
and just want to win \$500 asap
try
Bold play betting
(bet just what is needed to hit your target in one attempt or
go all-in to build back up if you can not hit your target in one bet)

Bet \$500 to win. No odds. Go for it.
Don't Pass or Pass Line
IF lose that first bet, bet \$1k to hit your bankroll target.
Lose that, all-in for your last \$500

Probability to win from Don't Pass
[1] 0.7924462
Probability to win from Pass Line
[1] 0.7923835

some R code if you want to play with it
I think this came from, who else, BruceZ
one can run this code online here:
http://www.compileonline.com/execute_r_online.php

`br = 2000     # Starting Bankrollgoal = 2500   # Target bankrollodds = 1      # Payoff Oddsp = 244/495   # P(win bet)max_bet = 2000  # Table maxprob = 0p_fail = 1count = 0while ( (br >= 1) & (br < goal) & (count < 1000) ) {# Compute probabity of completing parlay up  bet = min(br,max_bet)  consec = 0   while (br + bet*odds <= goal) {    br = br + bet*odds    consec = consec + 1    bet = min(br,max_bet)  }  p_parlay = p^consec# Compute probabilty of reaching goal  bets = 0  if (br < goal) {  while ( min(br,max_bet) >= ceiling((goal-br)/odds) ) {    br = br - ceiling((goal-br)/odds)    bets = bets + 1  }}  p_goal = ifelse(bets, 1-(1-p)^bets, 1)  delta = p_fail*p_parlay*p_goal  prob = prob + delta  p_fail = p_fail*p_parlay*(1-p)^bets  count = count + 1}prob   # Probability of reaching goaldelta`

Good Luck
Let us know how your session turned out
win some johnny
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
• Posts: 167
July 1st, 2013 at 2:47:57 AM permalink
Thanks for the the detailed calculations.

I did ~2400 random practice throws on my bed and got amazing results betting \$5 on don't pass with 20x odds...

- Largest deficit was only \$150 after 18 rolls
- \$500 goal reached after 60 rolls
- \$875 profit after ~100 rolls
- \$1710 profit after ~200 rolls
- \$1580 profit after ~300 rolls
- \$1330 profit after ~400 rolls
- \$1960 profit after ~500 rolls
- \$1985 profit after ~600 rolls
- \$1960 profit after ~700 rolls
- \$2725 profit after ~800 rolls
- \$2385 profit after ~900 rolls
- \$2900 profit after ~1000 rolls
- \$2410 profit after ~1100 rolls
- \$2135 profit after ~1200 rolls
- \$1995 profit after ~1300 rolls
- \$2025 profit after ~1400 rolls
- \$1585 profit after ~1500 rolls
- \$1460 profit after ~1600 rolls
- \$1555 profit after ~1700 rolls
- \$1300 profit after ~1800 rolls
- \$1050 profit after ~1900 rolls
- \$1420 profit after ~2000 rolls
- \$1785 profit after ~2100 rolls
- \$1030 profit after ~2200 rolls
- \$1810 profit after ~2300 rolls
- \$3025 profit after ~2400 rolls

I was considering doing a Martingale on either pass or don't pass starting with a \$5 bet, but I quickly abandoned that idea after I saw streaks of 8 in a row for both sides.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8409
July 1st, 2013 at 3:38:12 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

got amazing results - Largest deficit was only \$150 after 18 rolls

Don't count on this in the casino - the perversity of real world gambling dictates that it is the opposite that is likely to happen, frustratingly persistent losing!

If you are only going to make a line bet with full odds, no come betting, looks like your bankroll will be sufficient. Go for it and let's wish for you the game is as available as you hope.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
July 1st, 2013 at 7:43:31 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Don't count on this in the casino - the perversity of real world gambling dictates that it is the opposite that is likely to happen, frustratingly persistent losing!

But of course many do 'count on this' on the first few real \$\$
attempts until they see the reality of many more session results.

Now trying to double a \$2k bankroll or bust out trying has a less
than 50% probability of success.

The OP ran 1 simulation,
I ran 1,000,000
results show just a coin flip with a house edge.

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 442.58
Avg. No. games tied . . = 12.65
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1536.88
Bankroll was busted . . = 51.347% of the time ( 513472)
Win goal was met . . . = 48.653% of the time ( 486528)

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 1369.03
Avg. No. games tied . . = 39.12
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 4753.75
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.697% of the time ( 526970)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.303% of the time ( 473030)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 429.09
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1448.63
Bankroll was busted . . = 51.522% of the time ( 515221)
Win goal was met . . . = 48.478% of the time ( 484779)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 1401.33
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 4730.76
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.794% of the time ( 527941)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.206% of the time ( 472059)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
• Posts: 167
July 1st, 2013 at 11:10:52 PM permalink
Made \$850 with a \$1600 bankroll tonight by mostly betting \$5 on the don't and then laying either 10x or 20x odds.

I have a suspicion that the dice were loaded at my table since so many people quickly sevened out.
It seemed like over 80% of the shooters never hit their point.

I gotta thank the Gambling Gods that I didn't bust out after going on tilt due to some players hitting several points in a row.

I almost dug my own grave during one of my rolls after I kept hitting point after point!

One of my points was a 4 and I thought it would be an easy payout after laying \$200 odds.
I couldn't roll a 7 no matter how many times I set the dice for 7, so I just flung the dice in frustration and of course the 4 hit... LOL

At one point I was down \$600 due to foolish overbetting and I finally gave up on betting against myself, so I bet \$400 on the pass praying to hit a 7 or 11 during come out. Sure enough, I rolled a 4... LOL
But I lucked out and hit the 4 on the very next roll.

At the very end of my session, my adrenaline was flowing and I was regularly betting \$100-200 on the don't with \$100-200 odds.
Good thing most of the shooters quickly sevened out.

All in all, I must thank the Wizard for his don't strategy.
Next time I play, I really need to control myself better and stick to betting the \$5 minimum on the don't with 10x or 20x odds.
I took a beating betting \$100-200 on the don't when shooters kept rolling 7's and 11's during come out... :(
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8409
July 2nd, 2013 at 3:09:41 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

Made \$850 with a \$1600 bankroll tonight by mostly betting \$5 on the don't and then laying either 10x or 20x odds.

Hey, you're starting out great!

Quote: drjohnny

I almost dug my own grave during one of my rolls after I kept hitting point after point! ... At one point ... I finally gave up on betting against myself, so I bet \$400 on the pass ... But I lucked out and hit the 4 on the very next roll... At the very end of my session... I was regularly betting \$100-200 on the don't with \$100-200 odds... I took a beating betting \$100-200 on the don't when shooters kept rolling 7's and 11's during come out... :(

OK, Dr. J., you've got to get some discipline here.

*You've got to brush off 'hitting points' in a row like it was play money you lost and stay the course IMO.

*Again, merely my opinion, a superstition really, I suggest NEVER switching sides during a session. That never seems to work out for anyone, indeed consider yourself lucky [\$400 on the line? really? the dice usually just go "heh heh now we've got this guy" when they see that][superstition, I admit].

*Your most serious slip in discipline is betting big on the line, and this is not superstition now. You thank the Wizard but this is not going to be his or anybody else's advice. Your bankroll is only adequate for your original plan. If you can't stick with the strategy to bet \$5 and have your big money on the odds, this just is going to have a bad ending. It is no guarantee as it is.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
July 2nd, 2013 at 7:16:17 AM permalink
I surely agree with the idea this can get awful real quick.

You have to have 100% control of your emotions in craps. This is true for
all players, but even more so for a dont player.

Rule 1..... dont allow a single player to destroy you.
Rule 2......Dont allow a single player to destroy you
Rule 3...... See rules 1 & 2

If you are playing the dont pass with odds and you are throwing or anyone else is throwing
and they hit the first number... thats it.

NOw i have seen many dont players then double the next bet and on and on.... and soon

I walked up to the middle 12 footer in O"shea's one day. Guy on the end had thousands
on the rack. the table had been bad and he was cleaning up on the donts.

I got the dice, 54 rolls later he was digging in his pocket to bet the last \$5 he had. Why
????????

If i or you or anyone else makes a point or two, take a break go get a soda. He will
be done soon and you will still have your money to get the next guy.

Dicesetter
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
• Posts: 167
July 2nd, 2013 at 9:47:44 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Rule 1..... dont allow a single player to destroy you.
Rule 2......Dont allow a single player to destroy you
Rule 3...... See rules 1 & 2