Any Input on This Field Strategy?
RememberQuote: JimboI agree with you that the house edge for the Field is 2.78%. The house edge for placing the 6 and 8 is 1.52%. The house edge for placing the 9 is 4.00%. I don't think there is any way mathematically possible to combine those bets to arrive at a combined lower house edge.
But as DeMango reminded me, I've only been on the Forum a month, so I am undoubtedly mistaken.
we can calculate the house edge as "per roll"
or "per bet resolved".
Many times they are the same but not for this Iron Cross example.
First keep these formulas in mind
ev=$bet(action)*He (action can be per roll or resolved and can be a weighted average)
he=ev/$bet
$bet=ev/he
-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626% house edge per roll per $205 of action
ev/$ bet (action per roll)
-$2.08333 = EV
$205 = action per roll (NOT $ bet resolved)
-1.01626% = HE per roll
so 100 rolls = $20,500 total action (not resolved action)
***ev = -$208.33***
$20,500*-1.01626%
Now per action resolved (average resolved $ bet per roll)
f 35 0.444444444 15.55555556
5 85 0.111111111 9.444444444
6 95 0.138888889 13.19444444
8 95 0.138888889 13.19444444
7 205 0.166666667 34.16666667
total 85.55555556
So, the average resolved $ Bet per roll = $85 5/9
ev / total resolved action per bet
-2.083333333 / 85.55555556 =
-0.024350649 = -2.4350649% house edge
this looks right because per bet resolved the Field = 2.78%; the 5 = 4% and 6&8 = 1.51%
So it has to be between 1.51% and 4% and it is per average $bet resolved
100 rolls = 8555.555556 total $ resolved
8555.56 * -2.4350649% = -$208.33
SAME EV as the -1.01626% but different action
The -1.01626% is over MORE action
I find it easier to use the per roll per action over many rolls than the resolved $bet per roll.
Some may find that easier.
just do not mix up your types of action.
Total action per roll vs resolved action per roll
are apples and oranges.
here is a link to the $22 Iron Cross thread that went over the same concept
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/3573-house-vig-on-anything-but-7-rdutch/
Two different house edges produce the SAME EV because of different action
Thank you for mentioning "weighted average." That clears up something for me.Quote: 7crapsFirst keep these formulas in mind
ev=$bet(action)*He (action can be per roll or resolved and can be a weighted average)
he=ev/$bet
$bet=ev/he
I mentioned that I read elsewhere that the house advantage for the "Anything But Seven" bet strategy is 3.97% but I did not figure out how that was arrived. Now I know thanks to your remark. The author first calculated the average weighted gain with the resulting net returns and then converted that financial data to the house vig in order to compare the bet with other bets on the table.
Quote: JimboI suppose if the $50 don't pass bet that you have made is a "life altering" amount--in the sense that the loss of $50 is something that you could not sustain--then only in that instance would you even remotely consider hedging the bet.
I wasn't asking for philosophy nor for speculation into one's motivation -- I was asking about the house edge with the specified flat bet and hedge.
Quote: JimboTo begin with, on the don't pass with 4 as the point, you are already a 2 to 1 favorite to win the bet. There is nothing you can do to improve those odds. You can take a better advantage of your favorable position by laying odds against your don't pass bet. You are still the 2 to 1 favorite regardless.
The 2 to 1 probability exists no matter how one has the 4 in a "don't" bet. I was asking about house advantage.
Quote: JimboWhen you buy the 4 for $30, all you've done is create a second, separate bet with its own individual house advantage. In this case 4.76%. Combining the bet for buying the 4 with your original don't pass bet, all you've done is to take away from your initial advantage over the house.
Really?
So, in the aforementioned scenario, you would maintain that all I have done was to add another separate bet -- I have not locked-in a profit of ≧ $19?
Quote: JimboIf you goal is to be paid "something" regardless of the outcome of the resolution of the point number (4 in this case), then this is certainly a way to achieve that goal.
Wouldn't that way change one's house edge from a negative percentage less than 100 (on the standing "don't" flat bet) to a "lead pipe cinch" (a house edge of -100%)?
Quote: JimboBut as a "strategy," this would not make any sense, since the reason you are the 2 to 1 favorite with the 4 as the point is that you succeeded in getting to the point, i.e. you did not lose the don't pass bet on the come out throw when you are at a clear disadvantage.
So, locking-in a profit doesn't make any sense?
Quote: JimboOnce you get pass the come out roll (on a don't bet), enjoy your advantage over the house. Don't diminish it.
I would say that there is another advantage over the house when one has a "don't" flat bet up on a number -- the advantage is that one can lock-in profits with a hedge.
I did not mean to be dismissive of your initial question or appear to be philosophical. Sorry.Quote: JimboWhen you buy the 4 for $30, all you've done is create a second, separate bet with its own individual house advantage. In this case 4.76%. Combining the bet for buying the 4 with your original don't pass bet, all you've done is to take away from your initial advantage over the house.
Quote: tuppReally?
So, in the aforementioned scenario, you would maintain that all I have done was to add another separate bet -- I have not locked-in a profit of ≧ $19?
Yes, I do believe that what you've done here is to create a second, separate bet when you bought the 4. In my view, the advantage you have on the don't pass bet is reduced by the cost or house edge for buying the 4.
I suppose someone may point out to me that my way of thinking is no different if you paid the house commission and bought the 10 instead of the 4 (while 4 is the point). Certainly buying the 10 does not assure you of a profit on the 4, but in terms of overall house advantage or vig, are not both scenarios the same from a strict mathematical perspective? In each scenario, you still have two bets. On the one hand you have bought the 4 with your don't pass bet. On the other hand, you have bought the 10 with your don't pass bet. The fact that one scenario locks in the profit on the don't and the other scenario does not lock in a profit does not change, mathematically, the cost or house vig overall.
If you look at the cost of buying the 4 as "insurance" to "lock-in" your profit, you are right.
Though you have locked in a profit, you have, at the same time, lost out on the opportunity of a greater profit by not buying the 4. By not buying the 4, you are exposed to losing your don't line bet altogether. Which, to a great degree, defines what a hedge is.
But whether this "makes sense" is a personal decision based on whether a player believes the cost of insurance is worth it. You also are right, discussing this from a philosophical point of view (as if one way is right and the other way is wrong) is irrelevant. To each is own.
I also fully agree with you that when you are in the enviable position of having a don't flat bet, after the point is established, there is the opportunity to lock in at least "some" of the profits with a subsequent bet.
As to how you accurately determine the house edge or overall costs of such a strategy is whether you include the exposure of a loss on the come-out roll or not.
Quote: Jimbo
When you buy the 4 for $30, all you've done is create a second, separate bet with its own individual house advantage. In this case 4.76%.q]
Not where I play! Pays $59, vig after win.When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
can we find some "dice controllers/influencers" who can take this edge in our favor and go break some casinos?
Also can someone please explain to me what system the DI/DC use? Like i have stated before the iron cross is about the only one that makes sense to me, since they are avoiding the 7. i really dont get why you would ever want to waste a roll and not get paid. Might as well get paid on every throw except for the one they are "pro" at dodging which is the 7.
Remember if you do the iron cross to make sure on the come out roll you tell the crew all your bets are working. I did this bet once and forgot to tell them that an 8 was rolled and they took my field and didnt pay my 8. obviously i raised hell and was quickly shut down and told its always assumed off. i told them "why the fuck! would i ever want it off if i dont have a line bet?" sure enough i lost the argument so dont make the same mistake and good luck.
Quote: nezbitAlso can someone please explain to me what system the DI/DC use? Like i have stated before the iron cross is about the only one that makes sense to me, since they are avoiding the 7.
It is generally held that DIs try to avoid loss rolls. So, on the comeout roll with a pass line bet, they usually try to avoid the craps numbers. A 5-2/4-3 set is common on the comeout. Of course, after a point is established, one tries to avoid the seven.
4 point
$50 DP line
**(omitting any odds before this)**
you will win this bet 6/36 and lose 3/36
6*50/36 = 8.333
3*-50/36 = -4.166
net = 8.333 - 4.166 = 4.166
you can expect to make +$4.166 per throw with this set up
knowing this lets add a $30 bet the the "place bet" 4, (yes i know buy is better bet, but this is to keep math simple and show you difference)
Place 4 $30
pays 9/5 or $54
now lets change the numbers above with our newly added information
7 roll (6*($50-$30)/36) = 6*20/36 = 3.333
4 roll (3*($54-$50)/36) = 3*4/36 = 0.333
net 3.333 - 0.333 = $3.000
you can now expect to win only $3 per throw instead of $4.166 as showed above. you lose $1.66 by hedging your bet (long run of course), yes i understand some people would rather have guaranteed money now, then beat the "FOREVER" long run.
i can keep going with this math but i just tried to keep it basic.
one thing you never ever do and i have seen people do "NEVER PULL YOUR DP LINE BACK DOWN AFTER POINT IS ESTABLISHED" I have seen people pull line back when a 6/8 hits. This is never correct as you always have a better chance of rolling a 7.
Quote: nezbitone thing you never ever do and i have seen people do "NEVER PULL YOUR DP LINE BACK DOWN AFTER POINT IS ESTABLISHED"
Never heard that one before. Are you sure?
;-)
Quote: tuppNever heard that one before. Are you sure?
;-)
dude i have seen it with my eyes just before face palming...
I, too, have seen players instruct the dealer to take "no action" with their Don't Come bet (meaning don't book the bet) if either the 6 or 8 is rolled.Quote: nezbitone thing you never ever do and i have seen people do "NEVER PULL YOUR DP LINE BACK DOWN AFTER POINT IS ESTABLISHED" I have seen people pull line back when a 6/8 hits. This is never correct as you always have a better chance of rolling a 7.
It is more than simply saying this is never correct due to having a better chance of rolling a 7. You are actually giving up 10.45% to the house.
With a bet on the don't pass (or don't come) and either the 6 or 8 is rolled, the player edge is 9.09%. When the player elects to take "no action," he is effect trading that bet where he has the edge of 9.09% for a bet on the don't come which has a house edge of 1.36%.
So the cost to the player in making this decision is 10.45%.
From that standpoint, The Field player could be facing less of an edge than a 00 roulette player, more of an edge than the pass line bettor next to him, and have the highest (or lowest) expected utils out of all of them.
So Field could be a pass line hedge with benefits.
Quote: nycgagsHow about Field Bet to replace an Any Craps bet? Odds are much better, 2x two, 3x twelve, plus a bonus on Yo along with 4, 9, and 10 paying off as well.
So Field could be a pass line hedge with benefits.
You spend $1 for every $7 worth of line bet for maximum hedging. Your $5 field bet will not cover a $35 line bet, not even close.
Here is the EV for each bet:
Summary
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $5 AC w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.3
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $13 FB w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.6
Roll . . D1 D2 . 35+5 35+13
2 . . . . 1 1 . . 0 . . -3
3 . . . . 2 1 . . 0 . . -22
4 . . . . 3 1 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 4 1 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 5 1 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 30 . . 22
3 . . . . 1 2 . . 0 . . -22
4 . . . . 2 2 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 3 2 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 4 2 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 6 2 . . -5 . . -13
4 . . . . 1 3 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 2 3 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 3 3 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 5 3 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 6 3 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 1 4 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 2 4 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 4 4 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 5 4 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 6 4 . . -5 . . 13
6 . . . . 1 5 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 3 5 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 4 5 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 5 5 . . -5 . . 13
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 30 . . 48
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 2 6 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 3 6 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 4 6 . . -5 . . 13
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 30 . . 48
12 . . . . 6 6 . . 0 . . 1
. . . . . . . . . 3.3 . . 3.6
PLEASE check my math, I have made mistakes in the past.
Since you explicitly called out a $5 Field Bet (FB) (instead of the $13 I used above) here is the EV comparison between a $5 AC and a $5 FB in conjunction with a $35 Pass Line bet:
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $5 AC w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.3
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $13 FB w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.75
It's actually better than a $13 FB, go figure!
Roll . . D1 D2 . 35+5 35+5 FB
2 . . . . 1 1 . . 0 . . -25
3 . . . . 2 1 . . 0 . . -30
4 . . . . 3 1 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 4 1 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 5 1 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 30 . . 30
3 . . . . 1 2 . . 0 . . -30
4 . . . . 2 2 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 3 2 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 4 2 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 6 2 . . -5 . . -5
4 . . . . 1 3 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 2 3 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 3 3 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 5 3 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 6 3 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 1 4 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 2 4 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 4 4 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 5 4 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 6 4 . . -5 . . 5
6 . . . . 1 5 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 3 5 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 4 5 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 5 5 . . -5 . . 5
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 30 . . 40
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 2 6 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 3 6 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 4 6 . . -5 . . 5
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 30 . . 40
12 . . . . 6 6 . . 0 . . -20
. . . . . . . . . 3.3 . . 3.75
Any Craps is a bad bet to make ever, it appears as a hedge, but in reality it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. You are better off letting your passline bet stand on it's own or if you want more "action" couple it with a Field Bet.
Roll . . D1 D2 . 35 PL
2 . . . . 1 1 . . -35
3 . . . . 2 1 . . -35
4 . . . . 3 1 . . 0
5 . . . . 4 1 . . 0
6 . . . . 5 1 . . 0
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 35
3 . . . . 1 2 . . -35
4 . . . . 2 2 . . 0
5 . . . . 3 2 . . 0
6 . . . . 4 2 . . 0
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 35
8 . . . . 6 2 . . 0
4 . . . . 1 3 . . 0
5 . . . . 2 3 . . 0
6 . . . . 3 3 . . 0
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 35
8 . . . . 5 3 . . 0
9 . . . . 6 3 . . 0
5 . . . . 1 4 . . 0
6 . . . . 2 4 . . 0
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 35
8 . . . . 4 4 . . 0
9 . . . . 5 4 . . 0
10 . . . . 6 4 . . 0
6 . . . . 1 5 . . 0
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 35
8 . . . . 3 5 . . 0
9 . . . . 4 5 . . 0
10 . . . . 5 5 . . 0
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 35
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 35
8 . . . . 2 6 . . 0
9 . . . . 3 6 . . 0
10 . . . . 4 6 . . 0
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 35
12 . . . . 6 6 . . -35
. . . . . . . . . 3.9
Agreed.
Some people are there for free drinks, merriment and a hope of making money, without regard to how statistically likely it is that they will indeed make money much less keep any money they do make.
>>>>I have told the Wizard to his face that some of his advice on how to bet rubs me the wrong way.
Just about everything rubs me the wrong way, but that is totally irrelevant.
>>>>guys who follow his advice based purely on mathematics and "in the long run..."
>>>>are actually a MINORITY of craps players. I know because I see craps players
>>>>all day long, and VERY FEW OF THEM bet the way that the Wizard or you guys describe.
That may be. A more interesting question is how many of them do it due to booze, boredom or 'the buzz'?
>>>>In your myopic worlds, collectively, these people are just wrong.
In the myopic world of the casino all people are just one thing: losers.
>>>>In my world, they aren't. They are legitimate craps players having fun playing the game.
Good!!
>>>> THEY define how the game is played, not your mathematical approach to how "best" play the game.
>>>> The REAL world is them, not you!
Reality trumps ivory tower anytime. When teh dice come to rest, that is reality! It is reality for the drunk as well as the sober, for the smart as well as the dumb, for the math inclined as well as for the math impaired. For those who eat peanuts as well as for those who eat caviar. For those with self control and for those who are wildly impulsive.
>>>>And they play the game in a way that you guys think is wrong.
Yep and sometimes in a way the dealers think is wrong.
>>>>As a matter of perspective, this forum, and the Wizard himself, are generally
>>>>against the idea of people "foolishly" letting their money be lost in the casino.
True.
Remember perhaps the absolutely BEST advice I ever heard a dealer give to a bettor:
"That bet your wife just told you to make is a foolish sucker bet and you should not do it, but it might win and if it does, you will NEVER hear the end of it."
I'm sure that even the Wizard who is prone to carry the math out to sixteen decimal places would agree that marital harmony trumps mathematics at all times and in all circumstances.
>>>>> the dogma that's shared on here for craps is that you want to make the process
>>>>> of losing all of your money be as slow and drawn out as possible,
Oh NO. Not at all. We want to make the process of winning all of the casinos money to be very quick, just like every other player. Its just that we accept the reality that ... well, as you say... real world!!
>>>>> by lowering the edge to almost give you a false sense of hope that you could win.
No, by lowering the edge to give us a chance to win and walk away rather than win and stay.
>>>>>Call me what you want,
We won't do any name calling here.
>>>>>but all I am saying is there is more than one valid way of losing your money.
AGREED. When the dealer gave that best advice, you can be sure the husband followed it and he lost his money, but he still bet properly.
Happy wife Happy life esp. on vacation, esp. in vegas, esp. at the craps table.Quote: FleaStiff>>>>>Not nonsense assuming you can realize that different people have different perspectives.
Agreed.
Some people are there for free drinks, merriment and a hope of making money, without regard to how statistically likely it is that they will indeed make money much less keep any money they do make.
>>>>I have told the Wizard to his face that some of his advice on how to bet rubs me the wrong way.
Just about everything rubs me the wrong way, but that is totally irrelevant.
>>>>guys who follow his advice based purely on mathematics and "in the long run..."
>>>>are actually a MINORITY of craps players. I know because I see craps players
>>>>all day long, and VERY FEW OF THEM bet the way that the Wizard or you guys describe.
That may be. A more interesting question is how many of them do it due to booze, boredom or 'the buzz'?
>>>>In your myopic worlds, collectively, these people are just wrong.
In the myopic world of the casino all people are just one thing: losers.
>>>>In my world, they aren't. They are legitimate craps players having fun playing the game.
Good!!
>>>> THEY define how the game is played, not your mathematical approach to how "best" play the game.
>>>> The REAL world is them, not you!
Reality trumps ivory tower anytime. When teh dice come to rest, that is reality! It is reality for the drunk as well as the sober, for the smart as well as the dumb, for the math inclined as well as for the math impaired. For those who eat peanuts as well as for those who eat caviar. For those with self control and for those who are wildly impulsive.
>>>>And they play the game in a way that you guys think is wrong.
Yep and sometimes in a way the dealers think is wrong.
>>>>As a matter of perspective, this forum, and the Wizard himself, are generally
>>>>against the idea of people "foolishly" letting their money be lost in the casino.
True.
Remember perhaps the absolutely BEST advice I ever heard a dealer give to a bettor:
"That bet your wife just told you to make is a foolish sucker bet and you should not do it, but it might win and if it does, you will NEVER hear the end of it."
I'm sure that even the Wizard who is prone to carry the math out to sixteen decimal places would agree that marital harmony trumps mathematics at all times and in all circumstances.
>>>>> the dogma that's shared on here for craps is that you want to make the process
>>>>> of losing all of your money be as slow and drawn out as possible,
Oh NO. Not at all. We want to make the process of winning all of the casinos money to be very quick, just like every other player. Its just that we accept the reality that ... well, as you say... real world!!
>>>>> by lowering the edge to almost give you a false sense of hope that you could win.
No, by lowering the edge to give us a chance to win and walk away rather than win and stay.
>>>>>Call me what you want,
We won't do any name calling here.
>>>>>but all I am saying is there is more than one valid way of losing your money.
AGREED. When the dealer gave that best advice, you can be sure the husband followed it and he lost his money, but he still bet properly.
I used this only as a vivid example of how mathematical edge is not the only determinant of game played or betting strategy.Quote: mdhHappy wife Happy life esp. on vacation, esp. in vegas, esp. at the craps table.
There is no doubt that dealer gave the right advice and no doubt that several other factors can affect decision making even if someone is very skilled at that 2 plus 2 stuff.
Still, there is an advantage to The Wizards viewpoint of always being on the Dark Side even though its "advantage" is a teensy one. Its sort of like that Camel's nose parable. A teensy bit of an advantage still has value to it.
