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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:52:54 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

The 1.4% HE on the flat bet works out to a little more than a nickel, or maybe $1.50 or a bit more on 30 bets an hour. I can cover that with no problem for an hour or so, leaving us with significant room for odds bets.

I'm not sure I follow. Odds bets aren't +EV regardless. My point was that I had a theoretical edge. But I was in my early 20s and thought I was hot stuff, being a +EV craps player. I've long since moved past the point where I would spend my leisure time following a stranger around just to make a few bucks in theo.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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January 4th, 2017 at 9:41:35 PM permalink
Ah, for the young and foolish days of being "hot stuff."
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 5th, 2017 at 2:19:06 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I'm not sure I follow. Odds bets aren't +EV regardless. My point was that I had a theoretical edge. But I was in my early 20s and thought I was hot stuff, being a +EV craps player. I've long since moved past the point where I would spend my leisure time following a stranger around just to make a few bucks in theo.



Well, some of this "AP" stuff is just the idea that you had a good bet for a change in a casino, not that it's going to make a guy rich.

It's occurred to me that if I was serious about it, then I need to reverse my usual tactics and seek out the higher minimums at the tables available. A $5 table offers really only an even trade, there's no way you can sweeten the pot on each bet, and it's close to break-even to offer an extra buck on wins. A buck on every 5 wins, say, is too complicated. All this is no good.

I think the chances of finding a 6/8-hating Dark-sider at the higher mins is better as well. Of course you would be giving up more on your own line bets, but the EV is tolerable even for $25 line bets; it might be time to do no odds to get low variance, and also usually you can get away with not betting at all for periods of time. Or to horrify the Wiz, you could just bet a dollar in the middle once in a while, no line bets.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jan 5, 2017
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
RS
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January 5th, 2017 at 3:46:27 AM permalink
In my experience, don't-players tend to be bigger bettors. They also tend to be more a**hole-ish, at least the ones betting more....so perhaps that'll weaken your chance of being able to buy their bets, even if it's a bet they don't want and you offer a premium. Unfortunately, any premium you offer is likely not to be influenced with it. You'll get a 1/11 or 9% advantage on a bet you take action on (6 or 8). Offering a 5% premium, which I think would be a bit steep (hey, I still wanna make some damn money now!) isn't that much to a gambler. Some dude got $500 bets (laying $3k) and you're gonna offer him a $25 premium on his bet? That $25 means nothing to him. He'll either give it to you or he won't, IMO.

The guy betting purple is probably more interested in showing off his money or attempting to win a lot -- he almost certainly doesn't care about a quarter.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 5th, 2017 at 4:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: RS

In my experience, don't-players tend to be bigger bettors. They also tend to be more a**hole-ish, at least the ones betting more....so perhaps that'll weaken your chance of being able to buy their bets, even if it's a bet they don't want and you offer a premium. Unfortunately, any premium you offer is likely not to be influenced with it. You'll get a 1/11 or 9% advantage on a bet you take action on (6 or 8). Offering a 5% premium, which I think would be a bit steep (hey, I still wanna make some damn money now!) isn't that much to a gambler. Some dude got $500 bets (laying $3k) and you're gonna offer him a $25 premium on his bet? That $25 means nothing to him. He'll either give it to you or he won't, IMO.

The guy betting purple is probably more interested in showing off his money or attempting to win a lot -- he almost certainly doesn't care about a quarter.



The sweet zone might be around the $15 min table, where you could throw an extra buck on wins. Maybe avoid the total nuts better at such a table.

Yeah, somebody putting out big action, that's not likely to be your guy.

It's a tiny bit of a paradox in that many times they "know" ... when they talk about moving it to the DC box they often say "not recommended, I know!" or " they say never to do that". Of course such a guy is opening up to you and it *is* time to offer taking the bet, mentioning that just even money is a better deal - plus you can sweeten it on wins.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
monet0412
monet0412
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January 5th, 2017 at 7:07:29 AM permalink
I forgot!! You can beat dice!! They fixed most of them but I know a spot or two that has to do with the craps slot machine. I don't want to get too deep into it but it is +EV and you might die of boredom. I messed with it for some time but couldn't stand the manotony!

Push the button... come on push the button!
Last edited by: monet0412 on Jan 5, 2017
Mission146
Mission146
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January 5th, 2017 at 4:14:27 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412


Push the button... come on push the button!



I should imagine you also found yourself saying that in a serious manner, at times. I have seen people sitting on that stupid machine who absolutely refuse to just PUSH THE FRIGGIN' BUTTON until they have one second left. Or, did you have the entire unit locked up?
Vultures can't be choosers.
monet0412
monet0412
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January 5th, 2017 at 5:14:58 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I should imagine you also found yourself saying that in a serious manner, at times. I have seen people sitting on that stupid machine who absolutely refuse to just PUSH THE FRIGGIN' BUTTON until they have one second left. Or, did you have the entire unit locked up?



Your right. I'd kick my wife under the table when she was watching the timer run out lol!

Actually I was saying it in an irritated manner. When I played that machine I either had two or four spots locked up. You know why and what to bet. It's just rather annoying and boring. The hourly is fine but I'd rather play some game with the same hourly with some variance to it to break up the monotony. Also when you lock into that game your stuck and can't loop around putting coin in other shops. I could just play it for an hour or two a day in this one spot I suppose but that noise gets to me after a short while. The last two nights I hit two progressives next to that game and the other vision machine that says: "play" "play" "play" over and over. After awhile I barely hear either. It was nice to hit both progressives in a total of around 3500 spins netting a 2200 dollar win + points and mail and courtesy comps. The craps machine was full with the usual suspects who play 6-12 hrs a day for months on end lately. Must be good but I have other games to play 😃

I guess those guys "don't matter" to surveillance like that surveillance employee said in the other post. If they were winning too much they would of caught them and 86'd them long ago. Nobody beats the house!

They camp out hard though, eating food all over the machine with outside drinks around it and they like to write every number down and fake cry when they seven out. Kinda funny actually!

On a serious note... while those guys were hammering that dice machine I was spinning reels at a 5% hammer for 3 days a month for about 50 hours total. That was worth 150 an hour so 7500 in cash a month plus heavy mail and CCs but surveillance didn't bother me cause people like me don't matter!! The funny thing is it wouldn't show up because on paper I am showing a 3% loss which shows up as a 4500 dollar loss per month! Nobody beats the house!!
Last edited by: monet0412 on Jan 5, 2017
Mission146
Mission146
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January 5th, 2017 at 5:39:32 PM permalink
It is both annoying and boring, especially if it is what I think it is, the one where you don't necessarily need to pay too much attention. Definitely a sweet run on those Progressives, always nice to get those sorts of things done faster than expected and profit more than expected!

How much those guys matter really depends on the house. I've not experienced any personal heat on those machines, but I do hear that there are houses that monitor those machines fairly closely.

The last paragraph sounds like fairly smart cover, best cover one is going to get, anyway.
Vultures can't be choosers.
monet0412
monet0412
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January 5th, 2017 at 5:45:36 PM permalink
I wrote one more paragraph with more information on it. I probably should shut up but I ain't scared. You don't get any heat on those anymore because they fixed them. However for some reason they put a couple in around town and forgot to AP proof them 😄

As you know... mistakes happen but in the end the house always wins... right??

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