Can You Be Banned for Dice Control? Have Casinos Done This?
Quote: AlanMendelsonDelete it? When Ahigh apologizes to me and to my wife for his comment then I will delete it.
I'm trying to remember the last time Ahigh apologized for something.
My memory goes back 40 years and I'm coming up blank.
Very creative to throw the wifeee into your defense. Your posts have all of a sudden become, shall I say, slithery!
You often complain about "personal attacks" well how about the personal attack and insult that you made against me?
I don't mind when you attack my beliefs about gaming -- but you had no right to insult me or challenge my reputation by making an allegation that I was trying to meet your wife when I invited the two of you out to dinner.
And by the way, my wife and I did something you and your wife will never be able to do: we were married at craps table at a Caesars Palace. Yes, this is a record that I hold -- the one and only groom stomping on a glass at a Jewish wedding at a craps table at Caesars. And the only wedding at a craps table at Caesars.
Good luck with the horn high ace deuce bets.
Quote: AhighWell, I still had no idea you had a wife, so it's hard to apologize to someone that I didn't know existed yesterday.
A mensch would have apologized regardless, if not because of my wife but because of the ridiculous and offensive statement you made about me.
Why should I apologize to someone who describes me as someone who lacks integrity for not apologizing.
You never apologized for calling me an asshole.
I don't want to apologize to you, and I don't think you deserve an apology.
You haven't been the most upstanding guy, and frankly I'm not really sorry.
The truth remains if I knew you had a wife before today, things wouldn't be the way they are today.
But that ship has sailed.
I have two children your age. Thankfully they have more sense and respect than you.
Quote: DeMangoNo, let the star crossed lovers continue for our soap opera enjoyment! How many posts were made by Alan when Aaron wasn't around??
Not such a nice comment; and one I wouldn't expect from you.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYour ship sunk a long time ago.
This is possibly your wittiest post ever. Where do you come up with this material. Oh that's right, you're a TV guy.
If only you were at good at betting and playing craps as you are at creating "stories."
Horn high ace deuce. I gotta write that down. Alan, you and SuperRick should get together.
Quote: AhighNot such a nice comment; and one I wouldn't expect from you.
Simply sarcasm at it's best.
Quote: AhighHorn high ace deuce. I gotta write that down.
As part of your "research" why don't you read Sharpshooter's book? He gives a baseball analogy about this insurance bet. When you are betting $25 or more on the passline you want to protect your batter and get him on base. When I have a set and a toss that heavily favors outside numbers, the $5 horn high ace deuce insures my $25 passline bet against throwing the outside craps number -- and offers a bonus when the yo is thrown.
I do not have a craps or horn bet when playing at a $10 table -- and I will accept that risk when $10 is the bet.
But when playing with a $25 or $50 or $100 passline bet, yes -- I am going to protect it with some form of craps bet whether I am the shooter or not.
I thought the math said not to?
Hell, I was a history major: WTF do I know about math?
Quote: MrVAh, hedging your bet.
I thought the math said not to?
The math says not to play craps. Craps is a negative expectation game. And for most people, the math says not to even walk into a casino.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe math says not to play craps. Craps is a negative expectation game. And for most people, the math says not to even walk into a casino.
The math says not to play craps?.......Brilliant, Alan.....I'll never play again. Thank you so much!
Quote: treetopbuddyThe math says not to play craps?.......Brilliant, Alan.....I'll never play again. Thank you so much!
Hey, if you're going to follow "the math" then follow the math. The math says you will lose.
Same thing with betting odds on come and passline bets. The math says that "odds" is throwing good money after bad.
That's what the math says.
Every odds bet you make, and every time you play craps you are fighting the math. That is reality.
Quote: AlanMendelsonHey, if you're going to follow "the math" then follow the math. The math says you will lose.
Same thing with betting odds on come and passline bets. The math says that "odds" is throwing good money after bad.
That's what the math says.
Every odds bet you make, and every time you play craps you are fighting the math. That is reality.
Again, thanks so much for your ground breaking work.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBut when playing with a $25 or $50 or $100 passline bet, yes -- I am going to protect it with some form of craps bet whether I am the shooter or not.
Yeah, that's a difference from the way I play now. When I have nothing but a pass line, my software gives me a set to hit more sevens, elevens, and fewer craps. I take that bet rather than neutralizing it.
If you do play that way, I suggest instead betting $30 on the pass and $25 on the don't. Then all you gotta do is not roll a 12 to keep your man on base.
On the comeout roll here are the outcomes for various rolls:
aces: -100%
ace-deuce: -100%
four: -33%
five: -20%
six: -9.09%
seven: +100%
eight: -9.09%
nine: -20%
ten: -33%
eleven: +100%
twelve: -100%
==========
Chance of losing on initial roll: 77.78%
Chance of winning on intiial roll: 22.22%
Expected average return: 98.59% (HE=1.41% or $0.35 per $25 pass line)
So you want to cut your chance of losing a $25 line bet with a $5 horn high ace deuce, here are the outcomes:
aces: +3.33%
ace-deuce: +6.66%
four: -44.44%
five: -33.33%
six: -24.24%
seven: +66.66%
eight: -24.24%
nine: -33.33%
ten: -44.44%
eleven: +133.33%
twelve: +3.33%
===============
Chance of losing: (3+4+5+5+4+3)/36 = 66.66%
Chance of winning: 33.33%
Expected average return: 96.78% (HE=-3.212% or $0.96 per $25 pass and $5 action)
Four dollar crap check with dollar yo:
aces: +6.66%
ace-deuce: +6.66%
four: -44.44%
five: -33.33%
six: -24.24%
seven: +66.66%
eight: -24.24%
nine: -33.33%
ten: -44.44%
eleven: +133.33%
twelve: +6.66%
===============
Chance of losing: (3+4+5+5+4+3)/36 = 66.66%
Chance of winning: 33.33%
Expected average return: 96.97% (HE=-3.03% or $0.91 per $25 pass and $5 action)
So it only costs you a nickel a roll to bet the horn high ace deuce instead of four dollar crap check with a dollar yo.
Now $30 on the pass and $25 on the don't pass:
aces: -11.11%
ace-deuce: -11.11%
four: -2.72%
five: -1.81%
six: -0.826%
seven: +9.09%
eight: -0.826%
nine: -1.81%
ten: -2.72%
yo: +11.11%
twelve: -45.45%
==========
Chance of winning 9/36 = 22.22%
Chance of losing: 77.78%
Expected return: (30/55)*(100-1.41)+(25/55)*(100-1.39)% = 98.59% (1.41% HE is $0.75 per $55 total bet)
So the edge per roll is cheaper, and craps rolls only cost you $5 which is a huge savings, and you can still get your odds bets after you set your point. Yo-eleven still wins for you just like with the horn high ace-deuce, but it wins you $5 .. but if your point is just to hedge, this is a cheaper hedge than $0.90 per roll. Plus you get to take 20% more odds this way, and you could even change your mind and lay odds if you feel you aren't going to make your point.
You also have the chance to have a net odds or lay odds bet below the minimum. For example, if the point is four, you can bet $30 odds on the four and lay $50 against, netting a $5 odds bet on the four. Tons of options for a lower cost if hedging is your game. I'm just saying if you're going to hedge, go for it! The goal of hedging is to play longer with less volatility. If you do it, do it ALL THE WAY!!! But why increase your cost and cut your options? The dealers may give you social strife, especially at Caesar's, and I don't recommend you hedge at all. I think you should aim for seven and eleven and bet $25 on the line. That's what I would do on a $25 table!
Quote: AhighIf you are just trying to get a point established and don't care about the possibility of rolling a seven or an eleven or don't have any hope at all to come out a winner on the comeout roll and only want to reduce the chance of losing, just bet them both for EQUAL amounts, and you reduce your chance of losing on the comeout roll to 2.78% instead of 11.11%.
On the comeout roll here are the outcomes for various rolls:
aces: -100%
ace-deuce: -100%
four: -33%
five: -20%
six: -9.09%
seven: +100%
eight: -9.09%
nine: -20%
ten: -33%
eleven: +100%
twelve: -100%
==========
Chance of losing on initial roll: 77.78%
Chance of winning on intiial roll: 22.22%
Expected average return: 98.59% (HE=1.41% or $0.35 per $25 pass line)
So you want to cut your chance of losing a $25 line bet with a $5 horn high ace deuce, here are the outcomes:
aces: +3.33%
ace-deuce: +6.66%
four: -44.44%
five: -33.33%
six: -24.24%
seven: +66.66%
eight: -24.24%
nine: -33.33%
ten: -44.44%
eleven: +133.33%
twelve: +3.33%
===============
Chance of losing: (3+4+5+5+4+3)/36 = 66.66%
Chance of winning: 33.33%
Expected average return: 96.78% (HE=-3.212% or $0.96 per $25 pass and $5 action)
Four dollar crap check with dollar yo:
aces: +6.66%
ace-deuce: +6.66%
four: -44.44%
five: -33.33%
six: -24.24%
seven: +66.66%
eight: -24.24%
nine: -33.33%
ten: -44.44%
eleven: +133.33%
twelve: +6.66%
===============
Chance of losing: (3+4+5+5+4+3)/36 = 66.66%
Chance of winning: 33.33%
Expected average return: 96.97% (HE=-3.03% or $0.91 per $25 pass and $5 action)
So it only costs you a nickel a roll to bet the horn high ace deuce instead of four dollar crap check with a dollar yo.
Now $30 on the pass and $25 on the don't pass:
aces: -11.11%
ace-deuce: -11.11%
four: -2.72%
five: -1.81%
six: -0.826%
seven: +9.09%
eight: -0.826%
nine: -1.81%
ten: -2.72%
yo: +11.11%
twelve: -45.45%
==========
Chance of winning 9/36 = 22.22%
Chance of losing: 77.78%
Expected return: (30/55)*(100-1.41)+(25/55)*(100-1.39)% = 98.59% (1.41% HE is $0.75 per $55 total bet)
So the edge per roll is cheaper, and craps rolls only cost you $5 which is a huge savings, and you can still get your odds bets after you set your point. Yo-eleven still wins for you just like with the horn high ace-deuce, but it wins you $5 .. but if your point is just to hedge, this is a cheaper hedge than $0.90 per roll. Plus you get to take 20% more odds this way, and you could even change your mind and lay odds if you feel you aren't going to make your point.
You also have the chance to have a net odds or lay odds bet below the minimum. For example, if the point is four, you can bet $30 odds on the four and lay $50 against, netting a $5 odds bet on the four. Tons of options for a lower cost if hedging is your game. I'm just saying if you're going to hedge, go for it! The goal of hedging is to play longer with less volatility. If you do it, do it ALL THE WAY!!! But why increase your cost and cut your options? The dealers may give you social strife, especially at Caesar's, and I don't recommend you hedge at all. I think you should aim for seven and eleven and bet $25 on the line. That's what I would do on a $25 table!
THAT is the kind of thing you should be talking about. That was an excellent post and very informative.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13THAT is the kind of thing you should be talking about. That was an excellent post and very informative.
ZCore13
Ahigh has been taken over by an alien being. This
can only be an improvement. Don't fight to get out,
just stay in there.
Quote: AhighNow $30 on the pass and $25 on the don't pass:
aces: -11.11%
ace-deuce: -11.11%
four: -2.72%
five: -1.81%
six: -0.826%
seven: +9.09%
eight: -0.826%
nine: -1.81%
ten: -2.72%
yo: +11.11%
twelve: -45.45%
==========
Chance of winning 9/36 = 22.22%
Chance of losing: 77.78%
Expected return: (30/55)*(100-1.41)+(25/55)*(100-1.39)% = 98.59% (1.41% HE is $0.75 per $55 total bet)
If I were to have a $30 pass and a $25 DP and I rolled a 7 (most likely number) I would have a net win of $5.
If I were to have a $25 pass with a $5 horn high ace deuce:
A. I would have a net win of $20 if I threw a 7. (6 chances)
B. I would have a net win of $36 if I threw a yo. (2 chances)
C. I would have a net win of $1 if I threw an 2 or 12. (2 chances)
D. I would have a net win of $2 if I threw Ace-deuce. (2 chances)
E. If I threw any point number I would have a loss of $5. (24 chances)
there are a total of 12 winning throws on the come out using a $25 pass with a $5 horn-high ace deuce bet.
the average win for the 12 winning throws: $198 / 12 = $16.50
There are 24 possible throws that would mean a loss of the $5 horn high ace deuce
12 winning throws have a total payout of $198
24 losing throws have a total loss of $120
Net value of betting $5 horn high ace deuce along with the $25 pass line bet is $78 over 36 rolls
Average value of making the $5 horn-high ace deuce plus the $25 passline bet is 78/36 is $2.17
What am I figuring incorrectly?
The single most important change you can make if you like this method of play is to NEVER EVER EVER bet horn high ace deuce when the prop bets pay 31-for-1 and 16-for-1. The reason is that you can get paid $2 on the hi-lo with a four dollar crap check and a dollar yo instead of $1 when you are using the horn high ace-deuce for a $25 pass line bet.
The part you're missing though is that if you have a $25 pass line, and you roll a four, you just lost 25/3 = $8.33.
Sometimes it's easier to see if you imagine bigger numbers. Let's just imagine $24,000 on the pass line. Roll a four. Now you have a 1/3 chance of taking $48,000 and down if you roll a four. So $48,000 / 3 = 16,000. That's what the pass line is worth on average. 16,000 / 24,000 = 66.6666% You already lost the 33.3333%. Just because you can see $24,000 in chips doesn't mean it's worth that much. That's why you can't take it down: you lost a third of it already they just don't want you to realize that!
Each year I pay about $1,100 to my auto insurance company. I haven't had a "loss" in perhaps 20 years, but if I had an accident (loss) I would be protected. The insurance premium of $1,100 gives me peace of mind and will protect me and my car in case of a loss.
My $5 horn high ace deuce bet protects my $25 passline bet. Yes, I could reduce the expenditure to a $4 craps bet, but I splurge on the extra buck for the yo.
Now, you wrote this:
Quote: AhighThe part you're missing though is that if you have a $25 pass line, and you roll a four, you just lost 25/3 = $8.33.
How can a $5 horn high ace deuce bet to insure/protect my passline bet become a loss of $8.33 ?
Quote: AlanMendelsonI appreciate what you wrote but I just don't see it that way.
Each year I pay about $1,100 to my auto insurance company. I haven't had a "loss" in perhaps 20 years, but if I had an accident (loss) I would be protected. The insurance premium of $1,100 gives me peace of mind and will protect me and my car in case of a loss.
My $5 horn high ace deuce bet protects my $25 passline bet. Yes, I could reduce the expenditure to a $4 craps bet, but I splurge on the extra buck for the yo.
Now, you wrote this:
How can a $5 horn high ace deuce bet to insure/protect my passline bet become a loss of $8.33 ?
With a horn high ace-deuce, you win on everything EXCEPT a box number. IE: it can't. All your losses are entirely made up of box numbers. For folks who are in denial that they lost on rolling a box number with this bet setup, it's a perfect way for a casino to take your money without admitting to yourself that you lost an edge to win your pass line bet that is worth actual cash when you rolled that box. Because anything else you do is a win.
On AVERAGE, you have a 40% chance to make your point after established. So your $25 becomes worth $20 on average after you roll a box number. $16.66 for a 4/10 (6/24ths the time), $20 for a 5/9 (8/24ths the time), $22.72 for a 6/8 (10/24ths the time). So on average, you lose $5 horn high ace-deuce plus $5 player edge when you roll a box number, or $10 total loss on average for rolling a box.
I'm guessing you only thought you were losing $5 horn-high-ace-deuce bet when you rolled a box? That player edge is a loss even though you can still see your chip, it's not all yours anymore or they would let you take it. That's the tricky part.
Quote: AhighWith a horn high ace-deuce, you win on everything EXCEPT a box number. IE: it can't. All your losses are entirely made up of box numbers. For folks who are in denial that they lost on rolling a box number with this bet setup, it's a perfect way for a casino to take your money without admitting to yourself that you lost an edge to win your pass line bet that is worth actual cash when you rolled that box. Because anything else you do is a win.
On AVERAGE, you have a 40% chance to make your point after established. So your $25 becomes worth $20 on average after you roll a box number. $16.66 for a 4/10 (6/24ths the time), $20 for a 5/9 (8/24ths the time), $22.72 for a 6/8 (10/24ths the time). So on average, you lose $5 horn high ace-deuce plus $5 player edge when you roll a box number, or $10 total loss on average for rolling a box.
Please explain to me how losing a $5 bet is worth more than $5 ??
And why does losing a $5 horn high ace deuce bet have anything to do with the passline bet?
Quote: AlanMendelsonPlease explain to me how losing a $5 bet is worth more than $5 ??
And why does losing a $5 horn high ace deuce bet have anything to do with the passline bet?
Try to take that $25. You lost, on average $5 of that $25 when you set your point. You lose $8.33 when you roll a 4/10, you lose $5 when you roll a 5/9, you lose $2.27 when you roll a 6/8.
If you think you didn't lose it, try picking it up and walking away and see what happens. It's not yours anymore. The house has a contract on that bet. It pays even money with a 40% chance to win on average. That's an average 20% house edge on that bet! Not a smart bet to take, but plenty of people who fail to understand that take these bets, even for big money!
The point is already a four or already a ten and someone walks up and places a black chip on the pass line! Whooooaaaa!!! That's a $33.33 mistake once the dice are thrown, TOO BAD SUCKER!!!!
Happens every day in Vegas that someone gives away MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE than $33.33 this way.
Quote: AhighTry to take that $25. You lost, on average $5 of that $25 when you set your point. You lose $8.33 when you roll a 4/10, you lose $5 when you roll a 5/9, you lose $2.27 when you roll a 6/8.
If you think you didn't lose it, try picking it up and walking away and see what happens. It's not yours anymore. The house has a contract on that bet. It pays even money with a 40% chance to win on average. That's an average 20% house edge on that bet! Not a smart bet to take, but plenty of people who fail to understand that take these bets, even for big money!
The point is already a four or already a ten and someone walks up and places a black chip on the pass line! Whooooaaaa!!! That's a $33.33 mistake once the dice are thrown, TOO BAD SUCKER!!!!
Happens every day in Vegas that someone gives away MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE than $33.33 this way.
I see the problem now. So look at it this way:
On the come out I have $25 on the passline and a $5 horn high ace deuce.
When I roll a point of 4 I lose the $5 horn high bet.
My passline bet of $25 is now linked to the point of 4. Two things can happen:
1. I roll a 7 before I roll a 4 and I have a loss of my $25 passline bet.
2. I roll a 4 before I roll a 7, and I have a win of $25 for my passline bet.
In both examples, 1 and 2, the $5 horn high bet is still lost. It will always be a loss of $5. Where do you get the $8.33 from?
Nothing of my $25 passline bet is "lost" until the bet is resolved to be a loss.
The "contract bet" you mention is a two-way street. The house also has a contract to pay me if I roll a 4 before a 7. The passline bet is certainly mine until it is lost, and the house has an obligation to honor the contract bet.
If my total bet of $5 horn bet + $25 passline bet is lost, I only lost $30. Where the heck does your extra $3.33 come from?
Quote: AlanMendelsonMy $5 horn high ace deuce bet protects my $25 passline bet. Yes, I could reduce the expenditure to a $4 craps bet, but I splurge on the extra buck for the yo.
No there is never a reason to bet a horn high ace-deuce when the pay for prop bets is 31-for-1 and 16-for-1. Never.
If you bet a four-dollar crap-check and a one-dollar yo, it is the same cost (a $5 bet).
If you roll the hi-lo or the ace-deuce, you win $32 on the crap check
If you roll the hi-lo on the horn-hi-ace-deuce, you win $31 instead of $32. They call it a different name so they can short you on the pay on the hi-lo.
All the other outcomes pay the same.
Ace-deuce is $32 and down for both.
Yo is $16 and down for both.
The horn-high-ace-deuce is one of those sucker bets except in the case that the prop bets only pay 30-for-1 and 15-for-1. In that case it makes no difference how you do it.
The reason nobody ever goes into this detail is because even the crap check is a sucker bet.
The best functioning hedge has zero pay and you never win. Just like your car insurance. If you crash you car, you break even. If you don't crash your car, you lose the premiums. You are hedging because you have exposure on the event where you would normally win (IE: you own the car). You get peace of mind that you won't lose more than your deductible, but that's all you get.
Insurance is the practice of removing the gamble to destroy volatility and gain certainty and peace of mind.
If you wanted to do this, $32 pass, $32 don't pass, and $1 boxcar will guarantee that you will pay exactly $1 for every comeout roll each and every time. You will always get exactly the same result and you can just pay for rolling the dice and be offered all the free bets on either side that you want for that $1 for every comeout roll until you get your number. Maybe this is the ultimate way to play for you. 345x on $32 is $96, $128, and $160. Normally the cost per pass line bet would be 1.41% of $32 or $0.45 on average. So if you like insurance to get rid of the gamble, it will cost you $0.55 more to never lose your pass line bet. Ever. You just lose $1 per comeout roll every time you roll on the comeout so that you can have a $32 passline that you will never have a loss from as long as you don't take down the don't pass, and then you can do you free odds, except they are more like "paid for odds."
You wrote:
Ace-deuce is $32 and down for both.
Yo is $16 and down for both.
Why would you take them down? Your passline bet is still in come-out mode. By taking your bets "down" you are removing the protection on your passline.
And please explain to me this business about "$8.33" for a $5 horn high bet? Again, where does the extra $3.33 come from?
And you also wrote this:
$32 pass, $32 don't pass, and $1 boxcar will guarantee that you will pay exactly $1 for every comeout roll each and every time. You will always get exactly the same result and you can just pay for rolling the dice and be offered all the free bets on either side that you want for that $1 for every comeout roll until you get your number.
What good does that accomplish? Because if I hit my point the pass and don't pass cancel out each other. While odds have no house advantage, they also have no player advantage -- so it's a wash. It seems to me the only thing this scheme does is allow you to pay $1 per point for standing there to chart the table. (Come to think of it, it's not a bad way to stand there and chart the table.)
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhere the heck does your extra $3.33 come from?
To understand the value, let's look at $30 on the pass line. The point is set at four. Now let's say I come up and I say (as Teddy has been known to do to me), "hey Alan, you have a four and you didn't take odds. Can I take your odds bet since you don't want it?"
You say, "sure, Aaron. You are such a great pal go ahead!"
So I say, "I want to get as much money as you get if you roll that damn four point, bro."
So I throw a twenty dollar bill on the come and I say "change please."
The guy with the gold chain says, "is this that punk you talked about who gives you a hard time on the internet?"
Then you say, "yeah, this is him."
The dealer then says, "hey punk, you're lucky Alan let's you take his odds bet. I'd tell you to get lost" as he counts out four red chips and scoots them to me.
I give you the four red chips and you place them on the odds.
WOW. The next roll is four.
You get $30 (your bet) + $30 (your pay) = $60.
I get $20 (my bet) + $40 (my pay) = $60
Your bet was also worth $20, it just LOOKED like $30 because they want you to think you have got more money than you really do have there.
20/30 = 66.66%. That's the remaining value of your pass line bet.
10/30 = 33.33%. That's the value you lost when you rolled a four on a $30 pass line bet.
Not only you lost that edge, but you can't take your bet down and I can. That actually counts against it too, but we're not even counting that loss (the fact that it's locked up).
Quote: AlanMendelsonthanks for the info above. But a question:
You wrote:
Ace-deuce is $32 and down for both.
Yo is $16 and down for both.
Why would you take them down?
The expression "and down" expresses the value of the resolved bet when you rack it.
If it helps you understand, you keep it up and win $2 instead of $1 if you do a four dollar crap check and a dollar yo when you roll hi-lo.
That's $1 extra on 2 out of 36 outcomes. $1*(2/36) = 5.5 cents per roll advantage on the comeout. About the same advantage the house gets on a $13 pass line bet all by itself. In other words, that horn-high-ace-deuce .. in the long run would be like if you put $38 on the passline instead of $25. You would lose more money after a while. The only difference is you get no extra chance to win doing the horn-high-ace-deuce compared to the four-dollar-crap-check and dollar yo. You just pay more for absolutely zero possible chance to win more money.
Of course I understand that odds bets are paid differently, but that has nothing to do with the passline bet.
Quote: AhighThe expression "and down" expresses the value of the resolved bet when you rack it.
If it helps you understand, you keep it up and win $2 instead of $1 if you do a four dollar crap check and a dollar yo when you roll hi-lo.
That's $1 extra on 2 out of 36 outcomes. $1*(2/36) = 5.5 cents per roll advantage on the comeout. About the same advantage the house gets on a $13 pass line bet all by itself. In other words, that horn-high-ace-deuce .. in the long run would be like if you put $38 on the passline instead of $25. You would lose more money after a while. The only difference is you get no extra chance to win doing the horn-high-ace-deuce compared to the four-dollar-crap-check and dollar yo. You just pay more for absolutely zero possible chance to win more money.
Let's go back to the beginning.
I like to "insure" pass line bets for the come out when the bet is $25 or more.
Okay, I can see how betting a $4 craps + $1 yo makes more sense than a $5 horn high ace deuce. Thanks for the tip.
I am still going to insure my $25 passline bet with some sort of craps bet.
Should I lose the craps bet -- whether it be $4 or $5 -- it will be either $4 or $5.
Should I lose the passline bet of $25 it will be $25 lost. If I win the passline bet of $25 it will be $25 won.
If I lose the craps/horn bet of $5 plus the passline bet of $25 it will be a total loss of $30.
If the come out rolls are craps, I will save myself $25 and even pocket a buck or two. If the come out rolls are yos I will get some nice bonus money.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh, I have a little problem. You see, I am not as smart as you. The way I look at it, a $25 pass line bet is $25 that can either win $25 or lose $25. Pass line bets are paid even money. Either they win, or they lose.
Of course I understand that odds bets are paid differently, but that has nothing to do with the passline bet.
Think about crapless craps. You have $25 pass line bet. The point is aces. You have to leave and I have to take over your roll. What am I going to be willing to pay you to take your $25 pass line bet with the point as aces? It has a value. It will win 1 time out of 7 possible outcomes. It ain't worth $25 dude!
1 in 7 times, it is worth $50. 6 in 7 times it is worth $0. So, doing the math, 50/7 = $7.14. That's the value of that one.
$25 - $7.14 = $17.85 --- that's how much money, on average, the house already won when you rolled those aces on the comeout on a $25 pass bet.
The house edge on that is 71%.
Surely you can understand that rolling aces on a crapless craps table represents a huge loss. You are not likely to win that bad boy!
You still not following?
Quote: AhighThink about crapless craps. You have $25 pass line bet. The point is aces. You have to leave and I have to take over your roll. What am I going to be willing to pay you to take your $25 pass line bet with the point as aces? It has a value. It will win 1 time out of 7 possible outcomes. It ain't worth $25 dude!
1 in 7 times, it is worth $50. 6 in 7 times it is worth $0. So, doing the math, 50/7 = $7.14. That's the value of that one.
$25 - $7.14 = $17.85 --- that's how much money, on average, the house already won when you rolled those aces on the comeout on a $25 pass bet.
The house edge on that is 71%.
Surely you can understand that rolling aces on a crapless craps table represents a huge loss. You are not likely to win that bad boy!
You still not following?
Yes, I am still following.
1. I don't play crapless craps.
2. My passline bet of $25 is a bet of $25 and the value of the bet does not change with the point. You can say it does, but if it wins it will be paid $25. And if it loses, I will lose $25.
All of your "values" are very nice things to talk about, but they don't mean anything when bets are resolved. I have never had a $25 bet turn into $7.14.
Quote: HedgeThou shalt not hedge thy bets.
Hedge bets usually carry a high house edge. For example, never take insurance in blackjack and never bet the any craps or any seven in craps. Exceptions can be made for insuring life changing amounts of money.
I don't want anyone to get the idea I think that anything with an edge per roll over 0.5% is a good idea. This is still an 11.11% edge per roll bet we're working on the details of. Most people that figure out edges like this totally write all these high edge bets right off the map and with good reason.
But if you like letting the house grind you down as you pass the time, at least let them do it more slowly. I like to have a chance to win and I like trying to win on every roll, not just after the comeout.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAll of your "values" are very nice things to talk about, but they don't mean anything when bets are resolved. I have never had a $25 bet turn into $7.14.
There's a guy named Steve who told me a story this morning at the craps table. He said the first time he took his wife to the casino, he gave her $100 to go play the machines. She came back after a while all excited and said "I won $60!" He said to her, "that's great honey, I knew I picked you for a reason."
She gives the ticket from the machine to him, and he looks at it and it says, "$60.25."
He then asks her, "where's the $100 I gave you?"
She then says, "that's what I used to win the $60."
That was the first and last time his wife gambled, according to Steve.
Steve said he was playing poker at the time and all his poker buddies just laughed and laughed at the whole thing.
The house has an edge on any pass line bet or come bet that has travelled (or been assigned to a number).
When the house gained this edge, you lost this edge to the house.
If you think you still have not lost, you are wrong. If you choose to look at this as being money that you have a chance to win that will pay even money, you are falling victim to a scheme where the casino does not want you to realize that you have lost.
Many people will take a bet with you that pays even money that has a slim to none chance of winning.
Those people are taking advantage of people who don't understand the math of probability as it affects the value of a bet.
I would prefer that you wrap your head around this concept before it costs you more money.
There are plenty of people here to help with this. I expect someone else may post more information tomorrow.
Quote: Ahigh
The house has an edge on any pass line bet or come bet that has travelled (or been assigned to a number).
When the house gained this edge, you lost this edge to the house.
If you think you still have not lost, you are wrong. If you choose to look at this as being money that you have a chance to win that will pay even money, you are falling victim to a scheme where the casino does not want you to realize that you have lost.
Many people will take a bet with you that pays even money that has a slim to none chance of winning.
Those people are taking advantage of people who don't understand the math of probability as it affects the value of a bet.
I would prefer that you wrap your head around this concept before it costs you more money.
There are plenty of people here to help with this. I expect someone else may post more information tomorrow.
Now comes the $60,000 question: why do you play craps knowing that the house has an edge and your expected value is less than what the chip's value is?
Earlier in this thread I wrote:
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe math says not to play craps. Craps is a negative expectation game. And for most people, the math says not to even walk into a casino.
Which got this reply:
Quote: treetopbuddyThe math says not to play craps?.......Brilliant, Alan.....I'll never play again. Thank you so much!
And I responded with:
Quote: AlanMendelsonHey, if you're going to follow "the math" then follow the math. The math says you will lose.
Same thing with betting odds on come and passline bets. The math says that "odds" is throwing good money after bad.
That's what the math says.
Every odds bet you make, and every time you play craps you are fighting the math. That is reality.
so Ahigh, you're preaching to the choir here when you start talking about expected values. So again, why do you play knowing this?
Quote: AlanMendelsonso Ahigh, you're preaching to the choir here when you start talking about expected values. So again, why do you play knowing this?
Because when I bet $30 on a $25 craps table, I win $30 on the seven $30 on the eleven, and I lose $30 on the 2, 3, and 12.
I also do my very best to make an attempt to roll in such a way that I roll more sevens and elevens, fewer ace-deuce, aces, and twelves.
Further still, fewer than expected four and ten points than concern for expected six and eight, and so on.
In order to get to the level of comprehension to be able to do this, I had to write an algorithm to evaluate all 576 possible sets from all of my throws using a complex algorithmic evaluation of all of the 36 possible outcomes for 576 sets on the comeout roll. My software then determined the best theoretical set for these conditions.
The set it recommends is the 3641 set.
So that's answering your question directly: I wrote software to tell me how to THEORETICALLY have a better chance to win on the comeout roll by setting and throwing a particular way instead of buying insurance to be able to lose on a less bumpy downward line, I did homework to try to win a slightly bumpy upward line; in THEORY. Not proven, but I did a lot of work to get to this point. Not just simply using someone else's software or techniques. Everything I did I did on my own out of my own passion for the game.
I play the game because doing this stuff to try to get better at the game than anyone else that I know is interesting to me.
But that doesn't stop folks like you and Zcore and even SuperRick from talking trash about what I'm doing. Meanwhile, I am 100% sure folks doing much less and then lying about their success or just getting lucky are happily lifetime winners for far less effort. Just like folks who get an inheritance and blindly get lucky in the stock market were able to buy houses in NewPort beach have a leisure lifestyle of luxury from pure luck.
Why do I try so hard to do what I do? I will tell you one reason that it's not: to get attacked by folks like you.
I find it intriguing that you refuse to admit that are are losing until you can't roll the point. Regardless of what anyone else thinks, I am a researcher. And this fact that you think you have not lost yet (presumably because you can see your money) is of particular interest. You're essentially paying a high house edge just so that you can "feel" like you haven't lost yet on a $25 table when you roll a box number. I can absolutely understand how someone who looks at the game this way continues to play feeling that they don't lose until they can't roll the point.
As part of my research I am also looking at how players who get dealt a good hand in video poker "feel" that they are playing with an advantage for the moment before they hit the deal button a second time.
These are almost the exact same effects in different directions. When a player gets dealt four fifths of a royal flush, it's like a player who makes a max bet on the DC and the four rolls (except as a percentage advantage the almost-royal is (1/48)*4000/5 = 16.66% advantage -- rolling a four or ten on a DC is twice as valuable). They may get paid nothing! And they have a much better chance to get a jacks or better. But they feel like they are playing with an advantage at that point even when they end up not winning (because at that moment they are in fact closer to winning).
The difference, though, is that in craps, you can liquidate that edge if you're willing to live with a 3.0% house edge (as you have demonstrated you are with $30 action on the comeout roll).
Bet $50,000 on the don't pass at Caesars, and if you have another $46,150 available, you can guarantee to win 78% of the time. Avoid a yo or a seven, and you will win. To collect your winnings, you have to bet the place bet for 30% less than your DC on the four or ten, 16.66% less on the five and nine. And 8% less on the six and eight. And very important, make sure it works on the comeout roll or otherwise use the don't pass bet. This can show you how you lose on the pass or the don't come by demonstrating that you win on the don't.
$50,000 on the don't, roll a four/ten? Buy the four/ten for $50,000 * .70 = $35,000. You win $15,000 every time (30% = 33.33% - 3.33% vig on average).
$50,000 on the don't, roll a five/nine? Place the five/nine for $50,000 * .8333 = $41666. You win $8334 if you roll a seven and $8332 if you roll a five or a nine.
$50,000 on the don't, roll a six/eight? Place the six/eight for $50,000 * .9233 = $46150. You win $3850 if you roll a seven and $3841 if you roll a six/eight.
The reason you can do this is because you already won with the box number rolled on the don't. You don't get 33%, 20% and 9.09% because you have to pay the vig on the place bet. What's left after the vig is 30%, 16.66%, and 7.7% or thereabouts. With a total edge per resolved bet closer to 3.0% on average (higher on the 5 and 9, lower when you roll aces, or ace-deuce) .. the same as the edge you get with your horn high ace deuce insurance. So maybe think of it as insurance to guarantee you will win.
Write down these numbers if you like to win more often with a 3.0% average edge per resolved bet on average. 0.7000, 0.8333, 0.9233 and be ready to place your bet to take your win. You won't lose any more quickly than $25 on the pass line. I suggest $30 minimum on the DC for this to have an edge worth enduring because of the higher edge for place bets on the four and ten.
Normally this is not smart at 3.0% average per resolved bet, but we already see you do that with $30. So here's another way to increase your chance to win instead of decreasing it.
The fact that you don't feel the opposite effect is very interesting to me as a researcher. This is something that interests me very much and I do appreciate your time in discussing these details.
Some might call it "addiction," some "self-destructive urge," some "compulsion."
I rationalize it as "entertainment."
Quote: MrVAs for why Ahigh or any craps players choose to continue playing craps, knowing that the odds are against them: there is something in the human spirit that drives them forward.
Some might call it "addiction," some "self-destructive urge," some "compulsion."
I rationalize it as "entertainment."
Is that guy going to fight that windmill tower? I'll put my money on the tower!
ZCore13
Quote: MrVAs for why Ahigh or any craps players choose to continue playing craps, knowing that the odds are against them: there is something in the human spirit that drives them forward.
...
I rationalize it as "entertainment."
For what it's worth, two hours of $15 craps on the Strip (pass + 3/4/5x odds) has roughly the same expected cost as seeing a first-run movie in a theater and buying popcorn and a drink. Entertainment is subjective, but the costs are equivalent. That said, you shouldn't need to rationalize what you consider entertainment if you are, in fact, being entertained.
Quote: MathExtremistyou shouldn't need to rationalize what you consider entertainment if you are, in fact, being entertained.
Ah, therein lies the rub.
Quote: MrVAs for why Ahigh or any craps players choose to continue playing craps, knowing that the odds are against them: there is something in the human spirit that drives them forward.
Some might call it "addiction," some "self-destructive urge," some "compulsion."
I rationalize it as "entertainment."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mp6F0u-cw0 - seems appropriate too...
