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MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:03:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


I don't know if this answers any questions, but the other answer, to me, is when I turn $25 into $1,500 (without having more money in my pocket or easily accessible) that's a moment where I think "I wonder if my method of play is responsible for that or if it was luck."
When I do that 3 or 4 times in a week and buy a gold bar to lock up those wins and do it again, that's a moment where I feel somewhat confidence that there's a chance that there's something there besides just luck.



It's only luck.

Archie Karas had an epic winning streak: he almost "won" Binions.

But then the worm turned ... as it does for us all.

But keep dreaming the dream ...
"What, me worry?"
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:20:33 PM permalink
It's really hard to read or even respond to your post Aaron. You are so off base and comparing apples to oranges it's almost funny.

1. The description of how you play is pretty much how every craps player plays. We want to hit a number. Maybe the point, maybe another number or a hardway something or other. If we hit it we feel pretty good. I know I do. And we try and do it again. If we do it again we feel a moment of success.

2. You coming down based on your feeling is NOTHING like a blackjack player who counts the cards coming down when the count is not favorable. Yours is a feeling. A tingle or voice in your head. The blackjack player is a fact that they are now at a disadvantage based on mathematics and statistics. No way comparable.

3. I believe I could think about dog poop and spiders and alternate between my left hand and right hand and roll the same as you over time. Maybe some day I can do that on your show. I think it would be fun and I'm pretty sure the viewers would enjoy it.

4. I play craps at a very low limit but last time I played in Laughlin I turned $60 into over $300. This was with only $5 on the pass line and double odds. When I was doing well I placed a $1 on all hardways for the dealers and hit everyone one of them before sevening out. I had a nice roll. 20 maybe? I never once wondered if my method of play was responsible. I also lost $600 playing Three Card Poker and High Card Flush. I also never thought my method of play was responsible for that either, since I play PERFECT Three Card and High Card Flush strategy. It's just the luck of the draw in both games.

5. You're not accomplishing anything by locking up gold if you are even lifetime. Your spending your own money you are winning back after losing on gold. You can just buy gold with that same money without risking it if the "locking up investments" is what you want to do. Buy gold with your money you are winning back is not impressive.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:22:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

These terms are meaningless first of all.

Advantage Play is what I would use as a term.



Okay, I can accept that. Let's talk about advantage play. First of all, you don't have to even throw the dice to be an advantage player at craps. Like in video poker, you have to play the best bets with the lowest edge, and rake in whatever freebies and comps and giveaways you can get your hands on.

I think a passline bettor or a dont pass bettor (lowest edge bet on the table) who bets enough to score big comps, or at a Caesars property enough reward credits to be fullly compaed and to redeem reward credits for department store gift cards or gas cards is a pretty good advantage player. With a good-sized bet on the pass or DP you stand to stay, eat free, get plenty of shows and shopping, and have a fair chance of having a net gain from the department store gift cards and merchandise you can buy through Total Rewards.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 11th, 2013 at 10:36:39 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

It's really hard to read or even respond to your post Aaron. You are so off base and comparing apples to oranges it's almost funny.

1. The description of how you play is pretty much how every craps player plays. We want to hit a number. Maybe the point, maybe another number or a hardway something or other. If we hit it we feel pretty good. I know I do. And we try and do it again. If we do it again we feel a moment of success.

2. You coming down based on your feeling is NOTHING like a blackjack player who counts the cards coming down when the count is not favorable. Yours is a feeling. A tingle or voice in your head. The blackjack player is a fact that they are now at a disadvantage based on mathematics and statistics. No way comparable.

3. I believe I could think about dog poop and spiders and alternate between my left hand and right hand and roll the same as you over time. Maybe some day I can do that on your show. I think it would be fun and I'm pretty sure the viewers would enjoy it.

4. I play craps at a very low limit but last time I played in Laughlin I turned $60 into over $300. This was with only $5 on the pass line and double odds. When I was doing well I placed a $1 on all hardways for the dealers and hit everyone one of them before sevening out. I had a nice roll. 20 maybe? I never once wondered if my method of play was responsible. I also lost $600 playing Three Card Poker and High Card Flush. I also never thought my method of play was responsible for that either, since I play PERFECT Three Card and High Card Flush strategy. It's just the luck of the draw in both games.

5. You're not accomplishing anything by locking up gold if you are even lifetime. Your spending your own money you are winning back after losing on gold. You can just buy gold with that same money without risking it if the "locking up investments" is what you want to do. Buy gold with your money you are winning back is not impressive.

ZCore13



I didn't say I came down on a feeling. I said I increase and decrease my bets based on confidence.

If you're saying you should bet bigger even when you're not confident of your shot, I would disagree.

If something is distracting me or for any reason I don't feel confident, I will still play, but I will play at lower levels until I feel comfortable.

There are only two cases surrounding confidence of being able to deliver what you believe is a good shot. You either factor in your confidence or you bet when you're not confident.

I read your response loud and clear if you disagree: you bet just as big when you are not confident of your shot because you don't have any degree of confidence in your shot and you consider it not different than a superstition.

If I had zero confidence in my shot and I had zero time invested in researching what to expect from my shot, I would agree with you.

But I have more confidence in my shot based on the work that I have done over years of practice, writing software, and doing analysis on my shot.

Without that, I wouldn't do what I'm saying that I do.

Without that, I would be playing just like you describe. And I do play that way when I bet on other people's shots. And I even bet bigger on random shooters shots many times than on my own.

I've taken $300 to $1800 on random shooters before, and I got lucky.

But that's not the subject. The subject is "when does influence begin" or "how can you tell?"

The purpose of locking up gold is to prevent me from making larger bets if and when I get impatient. It does serve a purpose as I can only turn gold into cash during normal business hours at Sahara Coin. So far I haven't sold any gold at all, and if I instead had cash in my checking account it would be much more likely to be spent even though gold is nearly as liquid. It's effectively just a way to chart my progress using a liquid asset that is easily sold in an emergency that's not likely to be risked in further gambling.

To give you another answer: if you don't believe a controlled shot can give you an advantage bet, then you can't answer the original question.

And all I said was that my efforts were attempts, not even that I was accomplishing this.

The last time I gambled, I was getting black chips off-and-on and parlayed hardways, and I left the table with $1,600 and I deposited it all in my checking account and I just paid my mortgage payment early.

You can say that does nothing if you want, but to me, it makes me relax about having money in the future and it does something for me knowing that even though I have no cash, I also have no debt and my bills are paid in advance and I have liquid assets all around me if I need them; but I don't.

So I will agree that it has nothing to do with advantage play, really, but if you can routinely turn a $100 buy in into more serious money, and turn the more serious money into stuff of value that's harder to turn back into cash, it will prevent you from making big bets and keep you in the practice of getting higher percentage wins more frequently and leaning more heavily on smaller repetitive advantage plays that keep you in the game than high-risk plays that are less likely to work in the long run and generally win smaller multiples of your original buy-in.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:08:28 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Pretty much every single "experienced dealer" I have ever had at PG tiles told me (as if he were doing me a favor) that I shouldn't bank every other hand when playing alone because it would break up my lucky streaks. You should see the reaction Chinese dealers give me when I bank after the dealer gets 2-2. It's like I committed a crime against humanity.

"Experienced dealers" are among the worst when it comes to evaluating probability because they often are uneducated and have monotonous jobs such that they easily remember outliers and random events, and then mistake those for statistical evidence.

Craps dealers have routinely told players in my games that it was a "smart move" to call off their place bets for a roll after the dice went off the table. It's a smart move to ALWAYS call off place bets, since they are negative, but this advice stems from the craps dealers' belief that the 7 comes more often after the dice hit the ground, cooling them off. Textbook example of confirmation bias.

AMEN....we really need likes and dislikes on this forum
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Just so you know, I just motorboated my face into my woman's boobs. She loved it!

.

I noticed that some people get mad when when their significant others are brought into conversations yet sometimes they bring it on themselves.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:40:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed that some people get mad when when their significant others are brought into conversations yet sometimes they bring it on themselves.



I'm not mad about my SO being *IN* the conversation. I'm mad about someone making comedy out of my vernacular of calling my woman "my woman."

That's what I call her, and she's fine by it, and regardless of what it means to other people, to me, that's what I call her and she likes it!

What I'm "mad" about is being laughed at and compared to an unintelligent fictional character (in this case Tarzan) in reference to my vernacular.

Nothing to do with my woman, or as you so PC referred to her as my "significant other."

It has to do with making a demeaning remark about my intelligence as inferred from my word selection.

IE: What upsets me is the comment that intends to say that I am unintelligent for calling her "my woman."

And I will tell you, I'm proud of my woman and I like the fact that she's gorgeous and she likes me just the way I am.

I don't know. It seems like a lot of people on here don't understand me; and that's fine. Just don't assume that means that I'm stupid, alright?
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EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 12th, 2013 at 6:56:38 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


I don't know. It seems like a lot of people on here don't understand me; and that's fine.



No, a lot of people here do understand you and most
of the time you don't think thats fine at all. I don't need
to go into detail, thats already been done previously.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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April 12th, 2013 at 8:29:24 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is why I also reject the idea that dice controllers need luck. For heaven's sake, either your are controlling the dice or you're not. Luck is not an issue.



Probability is. They don't -need- luck, but in the short term, they will have the variance (maybe less than mere mortals). It's the same with card counters. They don't need luck over the long term, but in the short term, as we've seen, they can have wild swings.

The big difference... I'm sure card counters exist.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 12th, 2013 at 9:11:10 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

No, a lot of people here do understand you.



WRONG.
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