Casinos would never cheat ....
Quote: Zcore13Ahigh,
The thing you just can't seem to grasp is that the casino doesn't care about larger than normal bets. The house edge fixes all ailments. If the player is not cheating, nobody cares how many times he rolls a number or how much he is betting. The house edge trumps everything.
If they suspect you are cheating, they might switch dice on you. There is nobody tracking dice rolls and putting in dice more likely to hit 5 or 9 when you are playing 6 and 8. It just doesn't happen.
I'm sure you're a nice guy and you seem fairly intelligent, but you are so off base on this topic it's begun to be comical.
ZCore13
I'm sure you are certain in what you believe. However, I have spoken personally with Wayne at the Silverton. He is the pit boss there. He disagrees with you. The last thing that he wants is to have some whale come in and take him for a chunk of change never to return. He sat down with me when I was showing him my die balance and explained this to me personally one-on-one in a very direct way. I take his word over yours. His view also is in contrast with other people in the same casino that also work there that have less experience than him and that report to him.
To make the point, he said that he wishes their bet limits were $500 instead of $1000. The last thing that he wants is to have brief action near table limits and to be taken from a lucky player.
If you doubt what I am saying, I will give you more information, and you can talk to Wayne about this yourself. But this isn't my perspective (taking bigger action with a different attitude than smaller action and defending against it) but I'm respectfully disagreeing with you on this. They treat normal action and table-limit action differently in these smaller casinos. This is not something that applies to a strip property with a lot of big action.
This is Fiesta Rancho, Gold Coast that we are talking about specifically. Not Bellagio. Not Wynn.
Context is relevant here. You are making a large blanket statement that I believe is not correct in this particular case of what we are talking about.
A big higher limit player can come in and exploit exposure from bad luck that the casino has to a lucky higher limit player if their limits are too large for their regular action.
This is specifically the instance when these theoretically biased dice could be called upon.
Your saying that I can't grasp something is ignorant of the fact that I am doing much more research than you appreciate.
If you want to talk details, and you are sure you are right and I am wrong, let's meet in person and discuss it further.
That's what Harley and I did, and Harley convinced me to do more digging to sway me to his perspective.
You could do the same, but just saying I "can't grasp" something isn't enough to convince me you're more knowledgeable on this subject than me.
Your view is more simplistic, frankly, and also less likely to be correct.
But I understand your perspective. I just believe it is a little less complex than mine, and a little more idealistic.
I wish my perspective were as simple as yours, and it was simpler before, but unfortunately, things are not so simple in terms of the things that I consider possible realities comparatively to your view.
The arrogance of gamblers... Smh... They truly believe that the casino has to add an extra edge to take their money... You do it for them!!!
You guys like to do alot of math.. Can somebody tell me the the time it will take for them to stop making excuses about the dice...is there a formula for that?
Quote: MathExtremistCheating is never legal, so if something is legal it's not cheating.
"NRS 465.083 Cheating. It is unlawful for any person, whether the person is an owner or employee of or a player in an establishment, to cheat at any gambling game."
By the legal definition of cheating in the context of the law, you are 100% correct.
There are more definitions than legal definitions, however. It is those cases for which you can legally cheat using a definition of cheating that refers to other things like moral character, deception, and other definitions of cheating that are not specifically defined to a more limited definition by the law.
Quote: TheWolf713Evenbob, you are dead on point.
The arrogance of gamblers... Smh... They truly believe that the casino has to add an extra edge to take their money... You do it for them!!!
You guys like to do alot of math.. Can somebody tell me the the time it will take for them to stop making excuses about the dice...is there a formula for that?
In case you're not aware, your perspective is the perspective I had a few weeks ago.
It's quite possible you just aren't up to speed!
Nevertheless, I actually hope that you are RIGHT!
Quote: AhighIn case you're not aware, your perspective is the perspective I had a few weeks ago.
It's quite possible you just aren't up to speed!
Nevertheless, I actually hope that you are RIGHT!
I applaud all your efforts and material that you bring to the board...
Right now it seems as if you are being pulled into a craps vortex of superstition and I don't believe you see it... (though you might not admit it) It all started wiith dice influence..
You can't expect a product (such as The dice) that is made in bulk (in freakin mexico by the way) to not have defective pieces... These defects will show up, and it just so happens to be on the table.. But the dice are also switched out every shift. To your benefit and the casino's... The casino doesnt care to know which batches are defective... They take the good wih the bad... It's random.
There will be dice that seem to set a table on fire, and others (like the set you encountered) that will draw suspicion of foul play... But if you acept one concept.. All of it goes out of the window... It's random!!!
Quick schematic: if you believe in dice influence, you will be sucked into biased dice, which will immediately suck you into a betting system to combat against the bias to achieve the goal of influencing.. You are experiencing the wrap around.. And you can't see it.. Smart people are always the easiest targets because it requires them to use their logic, something they have always had success using.
I don't mean to bore you with my Philosophy... Just trying to figure out what happened to the "it's all entertainment"
I appreciate your feedback, just also don't think I have just quickly fallen into the vortex. I am FIGHTING the vortex, yet I feel that I owe it to Harley to follow up on his leads and help him look at these possibilities. They seemed more remote on Saturday than on Sunday.
I very honestly hope that this all fades away. I don't enjoy this, especially the association with being someone who is falling victim to superstition.
It's work, that much I can assure you. And so far, for me, it has been work that I have done at the same time as I have lost money pursuing the investigation.
Quote: Ahigh
It's work, that much I can assure you. And so far, for me, it has been work that I have done at the same time as I have lost money pursuing the investigation.
Nobody can figure out why you're doing it. Its
already been done by others and the conclusion
is always the same. DI is an urban legend. Even
Wong got sucked into it for awhile. He finally
said: Oh. Never mind...
Perception: the casino has an elaborate scheme to suck every dollar out of craps players by using biased dice
The truth: There's a guy in Mexico working for 36 cents an hour filling up gold wrappers with dice and he doesn't give a dam whether they are square or triangles.. They are suppose to be checked by a supervisor (who also doesn't give a dam).. He figures someone else on the other side will check them, then they are wrapped up until they hit the casino floor.. When they arrive at a casino, nobody checks them because they think someone on the other side checked them (we call that passing the buck) and then you get them in your SL1 position... You set your dice and then.... The vortex of suspicion starts.....
Thank you and good day... The Prosecution rests
Same thing with dice. The regs require dice serial numbers and swapping some fake dice in and out is going to be risky as well as costly when some whimsical types switch to the Don'ts. How do you tell crooked dice to land on Seven quite often but never on a Come Out Roll?
Stupendous rolls at a craps table? Heck, some places will be happy to put a pair of dice on a red cushion and put it in some display case with a plaque on it somewhere. Only The Venitian insists on crushing its used dice.
The customers are all drunk, the women are all naked, money is flowing like water ... and you want to risk the Gold Mine by cheating for a few percentage points more? At the top of the Real Estate market, Strip Acreage went at fifty million per acre. That was the value without shaved dice. Just how much more value you think some jerk is gonna add by shaving the dice?
Quote: TheWolf713You set your dice and then.... The vortex of suspicion starts.....
No no no, its not the 'vortex'. Its the abyss. You
get sucked into the abyss, and its very hard to
crawl out.
Quote: vendman1Are you implying that modern casinos owned by billion dollar corporations cheat in today's regulatory environment? I highly doubt it. Big difference between mobbed up Vegas of the old days and the modern era.
From one of our fellow lady crap tossers in Vegas:
Quote:Beer lovers across the U.S. have accused Anheuser-Busch of watering down its Budweiser, Michelob and other brands in class-action suits seeking millions in damages.
The suits, filed in Pennsylvania, California and other states, claim consumers have been cheated out of the alcohol content stated on labels. Budweiser and Michelob each boast of being 5 percent alcohol, while some "light" versions are said to be just over 4 percent.
The lawsuits are based on information from former employees at the company's 13 U.S. breweries, some in high-level plant positions, says lead lawyer Josh Boxer of San Rafael, Calif.
"Our information comes from former employees at Anheuser-Busch, who have informed us that as a matter of corporate practice, all of their products mentioned (in the lawsuit) are watered down," Boxer said. "It's a simple cost-saving measure, and it's very significant." The excess water is added just before bottling and cuts the stated alcohol content by from 3 percent to 8 percent, he said.
Anheuser-Busch InBev called the claims "groundless" and said its beers fully comply with labeling laws.
"Our beers are in full compliance with all alcohol-labeling laws. We proudly adhere to the highest standards in brewing our beers, which have made them the best-selling in the U.S. and the world," said Peter Kraemer, vice president of brewing and supply.
http://azstarnet.com/business/local/budweiser-michelob-diluted-lawsuits-say/article_96501aa5-9e7e-5688-9258-927adb2b37b6.html
But if you do this research and find it to be true, what is your plan of action??? These casinos are pumping hundreds of millions into the desert.. Do you think the will make it fair? Nope.. Will it prove you were right... Nope.. They will just say it was a defective product..
The only thing that will happen is they'll get rid of the throwing of the dice and put in a bunch of crapless craps or auto craps machines...
Quote: BozSo you are saying that the casinos have dice that are designed differently? I would hope you take your "evidence" to the State Gaming Control Board immediatly. This may be the biggest news since the Stardust bust. I may have to short Stations casino stock today, although the SEC could be on me for insider trading. I cant believe that someone in the company has not thought of the money they could have made by coming forward with this info before.
we have .... see our details regarding visit to the Nevada Gaming Commission here - http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/p/biased-dice.html
Quote:First we had a member of our Biased Dice Research Team contact the Las Vegas FBI where we were told by a female agent that they referred all casino related problems to the Nevada Gaming Commission. When we told the FBI agent that we felt that the Nevada Gaming Commission was part of the overall problem and that was like "letting the fox guard the hen house" they simply responded with a
"Well, we are short staffed and only have enough agents to concentrate on gangs and drugs that are entering from Mexico."
So, we then decided to talk to the head Fox in charge of the Hen Houses by sending the following letter to Randall E. Sayre of the Nevada Gaming Control Board:
...
Quote:After the 3 hour meeting with the Nevada Gaming Commission, we interviewed our Biased Dice Research Team member that participated. His conclusion was that Nevada State Gaming Control Board is paid for by Casino gross gaming revenues and therefore knows exactly who they must protect -- the Casinos. Thus the proverbial Fox guarding the Hen House. Basic summary notes from the meeting:
- NSGCB Agent Jim Edwards was more interested in who the messenger was instead of possible crimes being committed by the Casinos,
Wanted to know if our messenger was a member of GTC (Golden Touch Craps group associated with Frank Scoblete),
- NSGCB Agent explained in so many words that their duties were to protect the casinos from Casino staff and patrons from stealing casino revenues.
Agent gave a 15 minute presentation on how shaved dice would not alter the odds of craps. We then tried to tell him that we were not talking about shaved dice, but unbalanced dice. Agent seemed to have trouble understanding the difference between shaved dice and unbalanced dice;
- NSGCB Agent wanted to know when and where Biased dice would be used -- we gave him days and times that 6 casinos would normally use unbalanced dice and he promised to audit their dice;
- Agent said he would be available to audit dice from any Nevada casino within 30 minutes of receiving a call if we suspected Biased dice. An auditor would arrive at the casino and give the Pit Supervisor a 5 minute warning that he would be confiscating the dice from the table, thus allowing the Casino a chance to get a new stick of dice so as not to interfere with operations;
- We presented our unbalanced dice evidence from 6 casinos -- showing how the standard dice balancing caliper (pictured above) clearly proved that live casino dice were unbalanced and being used to change the odds;
- Then the NSGCB Agent Jim Edwards explained how he would conduct the audit upon arriving at the casino -- he would first put the dice in a micrometer --- he demonstrated with our bad dice. He showed us how the dice were almost perfectly square -- again we had no argument with his findings. Then he pulled out his 50 year old all metal dice balancing caliper that weighed nearly 5 pounds and proceeded to spin the unbalanced dice --- the result was that the official NSGCB dice balancing equipment DID NOT WORK.
- The State "Caliper" cups that held the dice were too deep so that the points of the dice could not touch the end of the cup, thereby forcing the 4 sides of the plastic dice near that point to rub against the metal cup. Therefore, the metal cup would act like a brake against the 4 sides of the dice and prematurely stop the dice from freely spinning to a stop. In effect gravity would not work on the official Nevada state caliper in much the same way gravity does not work on a car going down hill if one applies brakes to the wheels, thus stopping the car from freely going to where gravity would take it.
When we asked if the state had a newer or better caliper, the Agent answered that "the state only had 2 official calipers -- one in the Reno and one in Las Vegas and they were both exactly the same except that one was painted red and the other green." The Agent then went on to explain that the state had no intention of getting new calipers -- that this was the official one to be used in all court proceedings.
It was clear the state had no intention of getting the answer right. Even after we explained what was wrong with his caliper. Therefore calling a Nevada State Enforcement Agent to verify if casino dice are balanced is a waste of time.
That whole quote echoes what I'm trying to say...
Where can you take a problem, that isn't even considered a problem, by the people who enforce the RULES? To the corner of Nowhere blvd. & They dont give a s*** lane...
You can keep digging, I hope you find what you are looking for, but doubt it will a solution in there
They don't always work as they should. You will get false positives because the corners of the dice are easily damaged. Calipers are just about worthless in many dice related situations.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIf this is true and I wanted to play craps, bringing in your own caliper would be quite a stunt for change, video taped of course by someone not with chips.
It will be the funniest clip of someone getting escorted out I've ever seen... Caliper in hand saying "I want to check your dice to see if it's fair!!!"
and then all the other players are going to look at the guy leave, and turn right back around and say "let me get a hard 8!!!!"
Quote: TheWolf713It will be the funniest clip of someone getting escorted out I've ever seen... Caliper in hand saying "I want to check your dice to see if it's fair!!!"
I wonder.
I mean, sure, if someone were to show up at the table with calipers and demanded, or asked, to measure the dice, the natural first thought on the aprt of the crew would be some sort of elaborate chating scheme.
However, I've found casinos quite transparent with equipment in other respects. In 3CP or PGP, for exmaple, the undealt cards are placed in their own little holder in full view of everyone. When new decks are brought out, the dealers display them face up before mixing them and shuffling them.
No question about letting you measure dice at the table. But if you were to ask about it, nicely, they may reply.
Quote: TheWolf713It will be the funniest clip of someone getting escorted out I've ever seen... Caliper in hand saying "I want to check your dice to see if it's fair!!!"
and then all the other players are going to look at the guy leave, and turn right back around and say "let me get a hard 8!!!!"
I'm not so sure. In this scenario, you would have the dice in your hands already. If they deny, they are being defensive which proves as much they might be hiding something. Nevada is supposed to be big about credibility, public trust of the fairness of the games and would have to act. The person willing to push the issue would also have to be someone willing to never set foot in a casino again, since I would bet they would get a letter in the mail 86ing them from the premises, if not the same day. It should be a right to demand something so simple, but apparently it is not. Ohio has some kind of clause where the state can ban anyone deemed harmful to the revenues of the state(seems a bit vague) and I wonder if NV has one too.
Your chat with the NGB shows nothing except some cooks complaining the dice are unbalanced. If you were to go to the people that handle food licenses and told them a restaurant was using gerbil meat in their $1 tacos, I doubt they would immediately send someone out to test the meat. It's an absurd accusation. But then you'd complain the fox is guarding the hen house again.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13Why not go to one of these places where you know the location and time they use "unbalanced" dice and play in a manner to take advantage of it? Or as soon as they switch to the "unbalanced" dice, change the numbers you are playing?
Your chat with the NGB shows nothing except some cooks complaining the dice are unbalanced. If you were to go to the people that handle food licenses and told them a restaurant was using gerbil meat in their $1 tacos, I doubt they would immediately send someone out to test the meat. It's an absurd accusation. But then you'd complain the fox is guarding the hen house again.
ZCore13
Your question makes the assumption that Harley is not already doing this.
I'm really not even 100% sure that Harley is excited about this becoming an issue that more people are aware of if he is very successfully exploiting it.
For the record, I have no idea what Harley's betting strategies are like with regards to possibly exploiting biased dice. But if it were me, and I were doing it for big money, I would find a face that was consistently light for a few hours and I would lay a number that needed that face. Like if it was light on the 3 face and heavy on the 6-1, I might lay the 6, 5, or the 4.
4:7 ratio is 0.457 - 0.500 = -0.043 or -8.58%
5:7 ratio is 0.626 - 0.667 = -0.040 or -6.06%
6:7 ratio is 0.778 - 0.833 = -0.056 or -6.69%
8:7 ratio is 0.817 - 0.833 = -0.017 or -2.01%
9:7 ratio is 0.642 - 0.667 = -0.025 or -3.73%
10:7 ratio is 0.526 - 0.500 = +0.026 or +5.11%
For a grind like this to work, you either need to have $0.25 chips, or you need bets that pay off in even increments of $20 to minimize the house edge. These are not ridiculously high ratios from face-weight biases. This data is from 100,000 samples generated from the observed face weights on the other thread about biased dice. IE: Using faceweights ( 130 125 108 125 119 142 ) , ( 130 125 108 125 119 142 )
Quote: Ahigh:-)
Hey Aaron, I have a couple of those too...where did you get yours? I got lucky and found that OfficeDepot sells them for $3 each (while other places want $16)
Tally Counter
http://www.tallycounterstore.com/Bank_Tally_Counter_p/014.htm
Then I took off the base and used my axis grinder and some aluminum and a drill to create a new straight strip of aluminum for a base so that the counters would still be connected together but fit into the rail really nice.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13If Harley was already taking advantage of it he wouldn't be complaining to the NGB. Somehow he can't win with knowing that the dice are rigged to hit specific numbers. If I had that information I'd make a killing and not be complaining.
ZCore13
I don't think it would be quite so easy, especially not knowing which dice are being used beforehand. If dice were rigged to land on a certain number a very small amount(assuming it is possible), you're going to have problems exploiting it. Seems a bit too difficult for me to figure out, but I think it could be an advantage for the casino if betting patterns didn't change. People may bet the pass line, but how often do they double up betting the place bets on the same number as the point? I am by no means a craps expert, but I can see how there could be an advantage to the house even if neither the house or the players knew how the dice were biased. Think how to do it if you were diabolical.
I still don't understand how the dice were determined to be biased myself based on the accusation blog. As an aside, if the dice are not balanced tested in public, I wonder if they are never tested or only tested once somewhere along the chain.
Quote: Zcore13If Harley was already taking advantage of it he wouldn't be complaining to the NGB. Somehow he can't win with knowing that the dice are rigged to hit specific numbers. If I had that information I'd make a killing and not be complaining.
ZCore13
If you start CONSISTENTLY killing a crap table(s) you're going to get asked to leave in short order (similar to backing off a card-counter)
I would imagine there are so few houses that have greatly-biased dice that it makes it hard to really spread your play around...on a similar note, these same houses are probably real low-roller/sweat joints...so even if you started to win more than like $100, they'd be on you like stank on poop.
Unless they are changing the dice right after the come out roll it doesn't make any sense. If they are doing that then that is VERY easy to prove and have someone from the NGB watch. The whole story sounds fishy.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13If Harley was already taking advantage of it he wouldn't be complaining to the NGB.
If this statement were correct, you would have a point. However, you have no evidence for the above statement as it's an assertion dependent on an assumption that you have made about Harley not being someone who has a good moral character.
Harley is one of the most pleasant guys I have ever had an opportunity to meet. And he is extremely modest.
I used to think a lot of bad stuff about Harley until I met him, honestly. So I can imagine how you might also feel this way.
Quote: Zcore13The thing is, I don't know if I've ever seen dice changed after the come out roll that results in a point and before the next roll. So the unbalanced dice "create" a number that is unbalanced, say 9 for example. Now everyone plays their odds at 2 or 3 or 4 times their pass line. Then the shooter rolls the dice and the dice are unballanced to hit a 9 more often then any other number and it hits and everyone wins. So the house gets pissed and changes the dice to the unbalanced ones that hit 10's more than normal. The point is established, more likely a 10 than anything. Everyone places their odds at 2-1 and the shooter has a higher chance at hitting a 10 than anything and wins.
Unless they are changing the dice right after the come out roll it doesn't make any sense. If they are doing that then that is VERY easy to prove and have someone from the NGB watch. The whole story sounds fishy.
ZCore13
There is an entire other thread where I discuss the math supporting Harley's theories. I thought the math would quickly have exposure on the don't pass, which it doesn't. It's ironic to me that the exposure is in the field when the six and one faces are too heavily weighted in their outcomes.
The pass line doesn't get hurt as much as the free odds bets because 29% of the passline bets benefit from the extra 6-1 seven winners.
The free odds bets, are really where the ratio of box numbers to sevens starts to hurt in the long run.
You can absolutely still win, it's just no longer a free bet if you are having more six faces and one faces. And you can start to have a player edge on the lay bets too.
Quote: AhighI used to think a lot of bad stuff about Harley until I met him, honestly. So I can imagine how you might also feel this way.
Scobe referred to him as "young man"....but Scobe is like 60...so does that mean Harley is younger than you Aaron?
Harley told me he met the Wizard and that the Wizard pretty much dismissed him.
I dismissed Harley. I mean Harley actually drove me up the wall for over a year!
Anyway... I don't blame anyone for dismissing Harley, I'm just not doing it anymore until I learn more.
Quote: Ahigh
Harley told me he met the Wizard and that the Wizard pretty much dismissed him.
I dismissed Harley. I mean Harley actually drove me up the wall for over a year!
You guys crack me up. I mean, I want you to
keep going, its very entertaining. Craps being
such a new game that nobody's tried to beat,
and all..
From: Xxxx Xxxx
Date: Tue, Feb 26, 2013
Subject: Investigation of Xxxx Casino Dice
To: Harley <harleyhorn@gmail.com>
Quote:Hi Harley:
I have a lot of news coming down from Xxxx Casino here over the past three weeks. They have had tables closed 2 times with players challenging bad dice. I had a hour to hour and a half meeting with Xxxx State Gaming Control Agent Friday a week ago. Gave him a copy of Balancing Dice For Dummies. He is writing up a report and forwarding to Xxxxx.
I heard yesterday that all the dice stock was taken out of Xxxx Casino possession and a whole new order was received. ... It will be interesting to see if dice inspection has changes at Xxxx Casino and the rest of the State of Xxxx. I explained to him how I first suspected biased dice ... and how this has progressed over the years.
Call for more details.
Xxxx
Quote: AhighHe is very secretive about his identity.
Bruce Wayne?!
Quote: EvenBobYou guys crack me up. I mean, I want you to
keep going, its very entertaining. Craps being
such a new game that nobody's tried to beat,
and all..
And I want you to keep posting, too. After all, the phrase signal to noise ratio wouldn't have even been invented if it weren't for the noise.
Quote: AhighThe free odds bets, are really where the ratio of box numbers to sevens starts to hurt in the long run.
So the reverse would be true for laying odds, or wasn't that measured? Could be quite the opportunity to lay 'em big time.
In the short run, all of this stuff is outweighed by luck and chance. You have to flat-bet grind for a while to turn any actual edge into a profit. IE: it's boring, but in theory, bet big and repetitively as long as they keep the dice on the table.
Quote: AhighIn theory, identifying bad dice and laying an amount that wins a multiple of $20 is a pretty good bet
That is why measuring it when performing the test again could prove interesting--as well as profitable.
Quote: AhighIn the short run, all of this stuff is outweighed by luck and chance.
Tell us about it.
Quote: bj21.comBally’s Tunica accused of cheating patrons in drawing
http://bj21.com/misc/files/EleftheriouCivilComplaint.pdf
cash
for the $15,000 free slot play he had remai
ning at the time of his
eviction on
June 30, 2012;
and
$5,000 for the enjoyment value of the free slot play "
ROFLMAO
Quote: SanchoPanzaQuote: AhighIn theory, identifying bad dice and laying an amount that wins a multiple of $20 is a pretty good bet
That is why measuring it when performing the test again could prove interesting--as well as profitable.Quote: AhighIn the short run, all of this stuff is outweighed by luck and chance.
Tell us about it.
With these face weights, there's no exposure on the lay bets to speak of...
The formulas I used were chance of 7 occurring time 20/31 for five and nine, 20/25 for 6 and 8 and 20/41 for four and ten (vig up front).
Just not working out to anything big enough even with these crazy ratios, the edge with vig up front covers any advantage you might have.
Youthful ignorance can be so entertaining at times.
This goes all the way back to September 2011 for me when Harley posted on my board in response to a thread that another member started.
http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic9.html
Harley said about a year and a half ago that my software would prove what he was saying was correct.
All I have been doing is the due diligence.
What many people are doing now is neglecting to realize that Harley and I have been back and forth on this issue for well into 18 months now.
The above excel chart and my simulation software are, in fact, demonstrating that the resulting edge is not on the don't pass side of things as much as in the field.
An unexpected observation. But commission up front here in Vegas really allows the house to shield exposure on the lay bets for these funky dice.
It's true irony that these theoretical dice that Harley describes have exposure in the field more than any other place on the felt.
When you contrast my position today from that of 18 months ago in the above linked post, you may realize that many people are simply not up to speed on how these theoretically biased dice do prevent exposure while increasing the holds on the table .. with the caveat .. of the field .. in general.
I'll say it all again .. this is all theory.
There is an absolute irony that the highest edge bet has exposure from the face counts that came up on this recording session.
If all you did was counted the six face counts and the total roll count, (count two things instead of 6) you could do the counts in your head and bet heavy field and boxcars.
I have a story about how I saw some folks doing this at the Cosmo and walking with over six grand each.
Maybe there was a reason these smart white guys were making such "stupid" bets.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12228-any-12-12-12-craps-get-togethers-planned/2/#post202223
Maybe even counting boxcars and the total number of rolls would be even easier and almost as effective if you just wanted to fool around with a crazy theoretical strategy based on "too many boxcars."
Quote: Ahigh... This goes all the way back to September 2011 for me when Harley posted on my board in response to a thread that another member started.
http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic9.html
Harley said about a year and a half ago that my software would prove what he was saying was correct.
All I have been doing is the due diligence.
What many people are doing now is neglecting to realize that Harley and I have been back and forth on this issue for well into 18 months now...
That was a fun read down memory lane and how we have evolved with new data, information and brainstorming ideas from the Wizards' site and members !!!
... big kudos and credits to Wizards' members as well as GoodShooter.com for allowing an open discussion of the Biased dice issue ...... SuperRick and I have been banned from Heavy's axispowercraps.com message board and DiceInstitute.com for trying to discuss the subject of Biased dice
It wasn't until I got these counts that I really got serious about doing more numbers.
Anybody else out there who is just trusting the math and saying it can't happen, trust and know that I have been there myself. It's quite possible that you're just behind...
I would love to think that you're right though. Trust me I would. It's just unfortunate that I have to go and do this work. But I sort of have to really. I have been putting it off for far too long.
Those who put me down as having problems or being stupid or whatever, I don't blame you for thinking that.
I used to think that about Harley myself. It drove me nuts the stuff that Harley would say.
So I understand. Yeah, read that post...
