BAD DICE: the saga CONTINUES

Sorry for the dumb question guys, but...

Does "29" mean the number two was rolled nine times, or does it mean the number 9 was rolled twice?

Or what does 29 mean?

Quote: Ahigh

Even just those few rolls at Gold Coast, they were not real happy about what I was doing. I thought they were going to ask me to leave, but when I asked Wenda, "do you want me to leave" she just didn't answer.

She's a smart cookie, and I think they know plenty about what I am doing because I told them as much several weeks ago. Basically that I thought all the dice conspiracy theories were bullshit, but if there was any validity to it, they were right in the middle of it because just looking at their dice they appear to me to be suspicious looking dice!

Even back then they didn't say anything like "yeah that's freaking hilarious" or "you should do a count and see for yourself" or anything else. It just got really quiet. (!!!!)

I don't even try to operate under the radar. I even told them as I was counting and out loud, "WOW THAT'S 4 BOXCARS in 24 ROLLS. THAT IS UNUSUAL!"

You certainly don't operate under the radar. I remember what you did at Wynn. I am wondering if they are actually taking you seriously, or, they think you have a problem?

when I worked in the news business we used to get phone calls all the time from the same small group of people who told us that they had transmitters surgically implanted in their brains, and there were secret codes in traffic lights that only they could see, and even today I am getting calls about where Jimmy Hoffa can be found. (Honest, I got a call like that two weeks ago.)

Quote: AlanMendelson

Sorry for the dumb question guys, but... Does "29" mean the number two was rolled nine times, or does it mean the number 9 was rolled twice? Or what does 29 mean?

The numbers mean:
Face one was rolled 34 times;
Face two was rolled 35 times;
Face three was rolled 29 times;
Face four was rolled 29 times;
Face five was rolled 26 times;
Face six was rolled 37 times.

Quote: tupp

The numbers mean:
Face one was rolled 34 times;
Face two was rolled 35 times;
Face three was rolled 29 times;
Face four was rolled 29 times;
Face five was rolled 26 times;
Face six was rolled 37 times.

thank you! And the total number of rolls was what? And how many rolls are needed to conclude that there is something amiss?

Quote: AlanMendelson

And the total number of rolls was what?

Add all of the numbers and divide the total by two. I get 95.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And how many rolls are needed to conclude that there is something amiss?

Depends on who you ask, but I think only one forum member has concluded that some casino dice are significantly unbalanced.

However, there seem to be several forum members who have emphatically jumped to the opposite conclusion.

Quote: AlanMendelson

thank you! And the total number of rolls was what? And how many rolls are needed to conclude that there is something amiss?

I think someone suggested 5,000-10,000. Depending on the nature of the imbalance (the greater the actual bias, the less throws you'd need).

Quote: tupp

significantly unbalanced

That is the key issue. As soon as one roll is made dice are no longer pristine, and there is a possible imbalance, and as the same die is used a second time the imbalance could be offset or added to.

The issue is if the casinos know or put into play dice which right from the factory are not properly balanced? And then the question is how much are they off balance? And then we need to discover if this imbalance actually has any impact on dice that are thrown over a distance of several feet, hit a table surface, bounce and roll and may come into contact with a wall and chips?

We wouldn't be having a debate if someone said Casino X has magnetic pips on the face of the 6 on one die and on the pip of the 1 on the other die and there is a giant magnet under the table that the boxman can trigger.

No, what we are all debating here is not any measured evidence of weighted dice -- only circumstanital evidence that a limited number of rolls revealed certain combinations and numbers. And in the case of dice that were put into some device for measuring balance we don't even know if those dice were ever used in a casino and if the die in question is an isolated incident of a flawed die?

If you came to me when I was with the news and said "Alan, I have a story here about the casinos using rigged dice," I would say "what story? what proof? You expect me to put that on TV? And who do I say is cheating?"

What we have seen so far is an example of one die that doesnt balance out with some sort of device using peanut butter.
We have seen pips that don't melt.
We have heard about some casino suit who yells out "change the dice"
We have a limited number of rolls of dice that could be nothing more than random rolls of dice with no evidence that any roll was caused by any problem with the dice

I could go on. But there is an unwritten rule in journalism and investigative reporting that you don't put an allegation in print or on TV without proof that you could use if you end up in court.

Have you seen anything yet that would stand up in court? I haven't. Have I missed it?

On the other hand, I say to the skeptics about fair dice -- go ahead and investigate. But investigate the right way so that the information you come up with is information that could not be challenged for method, reliability, and truthfulness.

Tabulations of rolls of dice on a craps table would never stand up in court. Never. And because I play craps, and because I have seen everything from every player at a table throwing a point-seven to one shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row (it might have been 22, but 18 sticks out in my mind at the moment) I could not accept anyone's log of dice results when nothing but random results are expected.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And how many rolls are needed to conclude that there is something amiss?

That is the beauty and power of the chi-squared test.
With a six-sided die and how much bias it actually has, we may only need 30 to 60 rolls to have a strong conclusion if the die is fair.

As long as the expected value of one data point is not less than 1 and at least 80% are at least 5,
the test is very accurate as the degree of freedom increases and the sample size increases.


With one die we have 5 degrees of freedom, that is because of the multinomial distribution
(6 possible outcomes on any roll) all we need is the value from 5 data points and we know the value of the 6th.

http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/60432.html

This took me some time to find, but the story is good.

"You've just been hired as an expert in a gambling fraud case. The
plaintiff has accused the Slippery Fingers Gambling Casino of using loaded dice.
You are handed a six-sided die, and your assignment is
to report to the court whether it's loaded or fair."

"But how do you make this scientific and objective? Can you attach a number to how
unlikely you think it is that the die was really straight?"
Yes, there is math there

"So you report back to the judge: "Your Honor, an honest statistician
will never report anything with certainty. But I can tell you from the
experiment I did that there are only X chances in Y that that die
was true.""

(I would have used an example of even 30 rolls or 60 or 90 depending on the actual amount of bias
and we can make some good conclusions.)

The data presented by Ahigh so far, including his show's 140 dice rolls and lots of 6s and 1s,
we would have to tell the judge at this point in time, the results from the data could still be from fair dice with X% certainty.

Unlike "My Cousin Vinny" where the final proof of innocence was 100% certain
because Mona Lisa Vito (hot) knew about the different type of rear ends a car could have and the tire marks left by each.

Quote: AlanMendelson

As soon as one roll is made dice are no longer pristine, and there is a possible imbalance, and as the same die is used a second time the imbalance could be offset or added to.

Not necessarily. After one roll of the dice, said dice could still have the same molecular structure, with the same number of molecules.

Regardless, the subject of wear and tear has been addressed earlier in this thread, and worn corners and edges could influence dice outcomes. Like any variable in a system, it is a matter of degree as to what value of the variable will cause what value of influence. It's not "black and white."

Quote: AlanMendelson

The issue is if the casinos know or put into play dice which right from the factory are not properly balanced? And then the question is how much are they off balance?

Yes. And again, how much the dice could be off balance is a matter of degree. Most would hope/assume that manufacturer tolerances would make the dice rolls essentially random.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And then we need to discover if this imbalance actually has any impact on dice that are thrown over a distance of several feet, hit a table surface, bounce and roll and may come into contact with a wall and chips?

Well, I guess we also need to discover if such an imbalance actually has any impact on dice that are carefully set, and then shaken in the shooter's hand five times, and then thrown hard across the table like a fastball, while the shooter snaps his fingers and exclaims, "c'MOOON DICE!!!"

Quote: AlanMendelson

We wouldn't be having a debate if someone said Casino X has magnetic pips on the face of the 6 on one die and on the pip of the 1 on the other die and there is a giant magnet under the table that the boxman can trigger.

Huh? What does that scenario have to do with the possibility of significantly unbalanced dice?

Quote: AlanMendelson

No, what we are all debating here is not any measured evidence of weighted dice -- only circumstanital evidence that a limited number of rolls revealed certain combinations and numbers.

Recording dice rolls is empirical evidence. Enough recorded results can reveal a trend. That method is about as scientific as it gets, unless one has access to examine the dice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And in the case of dice that were put into some device for measuring balance we don't even know if those dice were ever used in a casino and if the die in question is an isolated incident of a flawed die?

Yes. As discussed in this thread, only the casino management and the manufacturers have proper access to the uncanceled dice that are actually used on the tables. Unless one is privy to the same knowledge as those two parties, it is possible that dice obtained independently from the manufacturers could differ from those used on the tables.

Nevertheless, recording enough rolls can show a significant trend.

Quote: AlanMendelson

If you came to me when I was with the news and said "Alan, I have a story here about the casinos using rigged dice," I would say "what story? what proof? You expect me to put that on TV? And who do I say is cheating?"

Reputable scientists usually are not trying to tell stories. What passes as "proof" for journalists is often decidedly unscientific notions.

Quote: AlanMendelson

What we have seen so far is an example of one die that doesnt balance out with some sort of device using peanut butter. We have seen pips that don't melt. We have heard about some casino suit who yells out "change the dice"

I would not accept any of those "phenomena" as evidence that dice are unbalanced.

Quote: AlanMendelson

We have a limited number of rolls of dice that could be nothing more than random rolls of dice with no evidence that any roll was caused by any problem with the dice.

Results from a limited number of rolls are empirical evidence of a trend (or perhaps you could explain how you would obtain results from an infinite number of rolls). Any trend could be empirical evidence of a problem with the dice.

Of course, empirical evidence doesn't necessarily constitute proof.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I could go on. But there is an unwritten rule in journalism and investigative reporting that you don't put an allegation in print or on TV without proof that you could use if you end up in court.

Could you prove your allegations (whatever they may be) in court?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Have you seen anything yet that would stand up in court? I haven't. Have I missed it?

I think that you might be missing the fundamental points of this thread.

Quote: AlanMendelson

On the other hand, I say to the skeptics about fair dice -- go ahead and investigate. But investigate the right way so that the information you come up with is information that could not be challenged for method, reliability, and truthfulness.

One can't get much more "right" than recording rolls on actual tables with actual casino dice.

If you demand that the actual casino dice be examined, perhaps you could convince casino management to let you keep a set of dice just after they unwrap them at the table (just before they put them in play).

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tabulations of rolls of dice on a craps table would never stand up in court. Never.

What "stands up in court" is quite often exceedingly unscientific. Consider the numerous convicts that have been executed, only to be later proved innocent by scientific tests.

Science is a much more rigorous discipline than litigation, when it comes to pertinent evidence and actual proof.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I could not accept anyone's log of dice results when nothing but random results are expected.

No doubt that you have a lot of craps experience.

However, this argument is circular. It asserts that significant trends in dice results are actually random, because "nothing but random results are expected." Such a claim automatically assumes that the dice are balanced (and that the tosses are random).

Please also note that the theoretical biased dice were modeled by me personally using my simulation to obtain the following trends:

1) Cause the player to lose more money on the pass line
2) Cause the player to continue to lose money on the don't pass line
3) Prevent any other bets (specifically the field) from being exploitable

I did not look at possible exposure from the player laying numbers, but I think that most casinos don't book enough of these bets to worry much about it. There is absolutely exposure on theoretically biased dice from doing bets than win $20 multiples from laying specific numbers that are less likely to come up before a seven than they should.

I rejected the theory that biased dice could be something that the casinos could use without exposing themselves before I started collecting samples, and if you look at the other thread on the topic, I modeled what an ideal theoretically biased die would look like on average.

On the subject of balance, this thread is not specifically about balance. I personally think that focusing on the balance of the die, regardless of how much it affects the outcome, is a secondary pursuit. I think other things besides a die's balance are just as likely possible to explain the outcome. IE: if these dice exist, and they have been intentionally designed after these theoretically ideally biased dice, I do not know what the procedure to create them would be at this point in time, and balance, if used, is only one possible explanation. There are many.

Also note that the work that I put in to coming up with the theoretically biased dice I intended to nip the whole theory in the bud and demonstrate that Harley is a nut-job. I failed.

Tupp, thanks for taking the time to respond. Also to 7craps.

7craps, your story about the court case is, Im afraid, just a story. If you want to prove the dice were loaded, you'd have to show the court the dice were loaded. Any defense lawyer could rip apart your math in front of a jury. The defense lawyer would say "show me the load."

And that brings us to Tupps comments and observations.

Tupp wrote: "Recording dice rolls is empirical evidence. Enough recorded results can reveal a trend. That method is about as scientific as it gets, unless one has access to examine the dice." And then he also wrote: "Of course, empirical evidence doesn't necessarily constitute proof."

And regarding this question: "Could you prove your allegations (whatever they may be) in court?"

The answer is: you had better be damned ready to do it. We have another phrase in the news business: "We had better be right or Mr. X is going to own this TV station (network, newspaper, radio station)."

Look, if there is something wrong with casino dice I certainly want to know about it. Heck I'll put the proof on my TV show. It's my show, I decide whether I put on editorial content or paid content. But give me the proof.

Here's a start: go to casino gift shops and buy their cancelled dice. The cancellation mark is only on one face. Cut the dice so you can weigh the sections that make up the remaining faces and show that they do not weigh the same. You might find that even with the cancellation mark (a compression of the material) all parts of the die still weigh the same. Being "clear dice" we can see there is no load in them, but is there a difference in the wieght of the materials caused by the pips or construciton?

That evidence would be more compelling than what the general public would consider nothing more than results from random throws because the main defense will be "the dice are random and anything could happen." While anything can happen with random dice, if you showed a weight difference with the sides it would be hard not to question the fairness of the dice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Here's a start: go to casino gift shops and buy their cancelled dice. The cancellation mark is only on one face. Cut the dice so you can weigh the sections that make up the remaining faces and show that they do not weigh the same. You might find that even with the cancellation mark (a compression of the material) all parts of the die still weigh the same. Being "clear dice" we can see there is no load in them, but is there a difference in the wieght of the materials caused by the pips or construciton?

You're stuck on the weight issue. The casinos don't make more money from unbalanced dice. That is just what Harley, Koga, and others believe is responsible.

If you want to proceed with facts, just look at the first 1000 samples of every new stick of dice put on the table at the suspected casinos.

Get your paid guys to go and collect samples under the radar. They were harassing me when I did this, so you really want to count the faces without being noticed for what you are doing.

And you want to count the faces on all three tables simultaneously all day long ... without being noticed.

I am _THE_ self-proclaimed expert on balance, and I'm telling you this: don't worry about the balance. Worry about the outcomes on the dice at the casinos that are suspected of using unfair dice if you want to do a story. I wish I had enough time to record every face that came up on that table all day long. But there are certainly people that would do it that could be trusted with their counts for less than $25 per hour.

I will tell you that as soon as the die is cancelled, you're not going to be able to know anything about whether it was balanced or not before being cancelled.

Quote: Ahigh

You're stuck on the weight issue. The casinos don't make more money from unbalanced dice. That is just what Harley, Koga, and others believe is responsible.

If you want to proceed with facts, just look at the first 1000 samples of every new stick of dice put on the table at the suspected casinos.

Ahigh I will not risk my business on your statistics or anyone's statistics for what is considered to be and is presented to be a random game with random results. If I went on TV and said Casino X is using unfair dice I will be sued and I will lose unless I can prove the dice are not fair. Statistics -- and I am sorry to burst the bubble of the math guys here -- will not sway a jury who will also listen to a lawyer for the casino say "but anything can happen" and who will also hear from some gambling "experts" who will also say "but anything can happen."

Even all of the "textbooks" about craps show that over time it all evens out in the end, hence that pyramid of results.

Your statistical research will be trashed. It's not like the same statistical research used for a video poker machine or a slot machine. In this case we are dealing with a physical object so the burden of proof is showing the load or what makes the physical object unfair.

The balance test will be dismissed because of challenges to the test and the tester.

Everyone understands the concept of loaded dice, so the burden will be to show the load. And as I say on TV, "that's the bottom line for your money."

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh I will not risk my business on your statistics or anyone's statistics...

Then go and record rolls yourself! That's what I did. I wouldn't have trusted anyone else's statistics either.

If the story does get picked up by the media, I'm sure they will figure out a way to do their own independent investigation into the outcomes.

But my point still stands, nobody is going to be buying my die balance to figure this out. It's the outcomes that matter.

Quote: tupp

Results from a limited number of rolls are empirical evidence of a trend (or perhaps you could explain how you would obtain results from an infinite number of rolls). Any trend could be empirical evidence of a problem with the dice.

However, the more limited the number of rolls, the more likely the trend is evidence of nothing more than variance.

Quote: Ahigh

I did not look at possible exposure from the player laying numbers, but I think that most casinos don't book enough of these bets to worry much about it.

From reports here and elsewhere, the chintzy joints seem to sweat the money over everything. Why a regular craps player would even consider such places is a mystery. That is unless they provide extraordinary gambling conditions or other special amenities.

Quote: SanchoPanza

From reports here and elsewhere, the chintzy joints seem to sweat the money over everything. Why a regular craps player would even consider such places is a mystery. That is unless they provide extraordinary gambling conditions or other special amenities.

I was led to this place specifically to investigate the claims of bad dice and bean-counting. SuperRick and Harley Horn specifically led me here.

For example, at the Gold Coast, they use counters to count how many dollars are bet on the fire bet because they are worried about that.

They absolutely do sweat the money over everything. I have evidence that suggests it may be possible that all Boyd owned properties are using Chinese dice. What I like to refer to a "Alibaba dice."

In fact, I have considered making T-Shirts about the Alibaba dice. I think it's hilarious!

If you want to prove dice bias and your theory, go back and record more rolls.

Quote: Ahigh

I have evidence that suggests it may be possible that all Boyd owned properties are using Chinese dice. What I like to refer to a "Alibaba dice."

Which particular selections of the scores available?

Quote: boymimbo

If you want to prove dice bias and your theory, go back and record more rolls.

First of all, this is Harley's theories, not mine. Secondly, I don't care to prove it or not, I just enjoy doing the research. Thirdly, recording these face counts is not all that much fun, and it's time consuming. I have a full time job too. So while I enjoy the research on the whole, I don't enjoy the part where I sit there for hours counting faces with chips. But I will undoubtedly continue this when I feel like I have some dice that are misbehaving.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Which particular selections of the scores available?

Come again? My evidence is just visual inspection. It's really pretty weak evidence. I have no way to prove where dice came from (IE: where they were manufactured).

I frequently harass these casinos about "where do your dice come from?" Harley is more adept at this than I am, frankly. But if you study dice, you can tell them apart by visual inspection.

Most people think all dice in the casino look alike. But there are differences between them. One you look past the similarities, you can see the differences.

But the evidence is not the type of evidence you could use to prove anything. But when you are looking for possibly biased dice, and all of this according to Harley's theories, every little detail matters.

I'm going to throw some fuel in the fire...
I was at GrandSierraResort (Reno) this weekend playing dice...
While I was there, I kinda just jotted down notes...the dice seemed really heavy on the 5 & 2 face...
I'd say a good 90% of the 7's that came up were 5-2...I spent about 4 hours playing and it was a pretty good pace, so I'd say 100 rolls per hour...
VERY few were 6-1's and I think I say a 4-3 maybe like TWICE in 4 hours.
I bought the 4 & 10 for $25 each and I did OK playing this way...did I make the correct bet for the (if there was any) bias?

Here is what I recommend everybody does who is curious .. while they are playing. Get 24 white chips, and start doing counts.

It's very easy to do just put two white chips into six unique stacks for each face that comes up. When you get to five white chips, color up to a red chip.

When you get to five red chips, color up to green.

When every stack has a green chip, make a new stack with a single green and take one green chip from each of the previous six stack (the common stack to add to all stacks).

You're just keeping a tally of the face histogram as you go along.

If you like betting according to what is "due" to come up, this can be a fun way to decide what to bet. So you can tell the casino staff it's just how you play instead of you suspect them of cheating.

Let me know if you have questions, but it's simple to do without writing.

I hate writing when I'm having fun.

If you're short on funds, use US quarters instead of green chips as necessary. You can put the common stack in your coin-pocket using US coins to make it a little less obvious what you're doing too.

Quote: Ahigh

My evidence is just visual inspection. It's really pretty weak evidence. I have no way to prove where dice came from (IE: where they were manufactured).

Sorry if I misunderstood, but I was crediting this statement, "I have evidence that suggests it may be possible that all Boyd owned properties are using Chinese dice," much more than I should have.

Quote: Ahigh

But if you study dice, you can tell them apart by visual inspection. Most people think all dice in the casino look alike. But there are differences between them. One you look past the similarities, you can see the differences..

Care to give us some clues to look for?

Quote: TIMSPEED

VERY few were 6-1's

Maybe they were of the light-pip variety.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Sorry if I misunderstood, but I was crediting this statement, "I have evidence that suggests it may be possible that all Boyd owned properties are using Chinese dice," much more than I should have.

Care to give us some clues to look for?

Harley is really the expert here. I have told Harley about how I look at dice, and I might know one or two things he hasn't been looking for, but examining the dice and deciding if they look suspicious or not is something that I'm not ready to give away what I have learned, nor what Harley has learned.

I have to give Harley all the credit though as he pays attention to many MANY more factors than I do.

Is there anybody here who thinks that a casino would not risk putting Alibaba dice (or what I refer to as Alibaba dice) on a craps table?

I find it hard to believe they would put five cent dice on a real craps table with anything higher than a $100 bet allowable.

Just curious if other people think any casino would be so stupid to risk their bank trying to save money on dice(!!!)

Unfortunately, I believe you guys are still a little green when it comes to interpreting the data. So far, I haven't seen any data samples of yours that show the standard devation distribution for the number of times each face has hit for entires sticks of dice over a statistically significant number of trials.

Later, I will post some real dice profiles.


-Keyser

Gee, don't tell me you prefer facts over fantasy? Spoilsport !

Quote: Keyser

Unfortunately, I believe you guys are still a little green when it comes to interpreting the data. So far, I haven't seen any data samples of yours that show the standard devation distribution for the number of times each face has hit for entires sticks of dice over a statistically significant number of trials.

Thanks, Keyser. No offense taken here. I wish my math were better, but I don't make as much of an effort as I should. That's a major reason I publish as much data as I can for all of my pursuits. I know there are math guys who like data and who are better at math than I am.

I am just as happy with this is all random data as any other answer as I am very ready to move on to something else. Especially something that is more obvious for me how to profit than risking money in the field or buying lay bets.

I've been getting killed making bets on tables suspected of using biased dice!

Ahigh,

If you can, post the individual dice face totals for several different days, and for several casinos. I can then copy these totals and provide you with the chi square and chance of randomness values, the standard deviation results for each face, and run some correlation tests between dice sets among other casinos. I can also paste the math showing the optimum betting strategy.

-Keyser

Quote: AlanMendelson

And regarding this question: "Could you prove your allegations (whatever they may be) in court?" The answer is: you had better be damned ready to do it.

Actually, that was intended as a "yes or no" question.

Quote: AlanMendelson

We have another phrase in the news business: "We had better be right or Mr. X is going to own this TV station (network, newspaper, radio station)."

I am familiar with most of the tenets of journalism, but none of them have any bearing on the scientific discipline of determining whether or not some dice are unbalanced.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Look, if there is something wrong with casino dice I certainly want to know about it. Heck I'll put the proof on my TV show. It's my show, I decide whether I put on editorial content or paid content. But give me the proof.

Certainly, a lot of the members of this forum would also like to know if there is something wrong with casino dice, but most do not demand instant gratification.

Scientific research often takes time and usually involves dedication and hard work.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Here's a start: go to casino gift shops and buy their cancelled dice. The cancellation mark is only on one face. Cut the dice so you can weigh the sections that make up the remaining faces and show that they do not weigh the same.

This method has been mentioned before in this thread, but I must point out that it is a really bad idea.

Once a die face is sliced off, all of the adjacent faces have been reduced and, therefore, the four adjacent faces are ruined and are not testable. Only the opposite face remains fully intact. One has to have a set of three identical dice to get full slices of all the faces. However, we don't know whether or not the dice are actually identical -- tolerances between dice is part of what we are trying to test.

There could also be cross contamination from any partial pip material in the adjacent faces that is included in a slice, which would considerably complicate the findings.

Also, there is the cancellation mark -- how do we know how deep the "compression" extends? Will all of the "compressed" molecules be included in our slice? This is an unknown variable that could cloud findings.

Furthermore, highly accurate tolerances in our work and instruments comes into play with such a method. Extreme care and skill is required and expensive, high precision tools and instruments are necessary. Any slight carelessness would destroy a sample -- if a slice is off by 1/100th of a degree it could significantly skew the findings.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Being "clear dice" we can see there is no load in them,...

That is another assumption; not a fact. A pip in clear dice could be lead surrounded by white plastic.

However, it is true that clear dice are more difficult to load than opaque or cloudy dice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

That evidence would be more compelling than what the general public would consider nothing more than results from random throws because the main defense will be "the dice are random and anything could happen." While anything can happen with random dice, if you showed a weight difference with the sides it would be hard not to question the fairness of the dice.

The method you propose is haphazard at best.

A better "weighing" method would be to take tiny core samples of identical volume of each of the pips and of the die body material (away from the cancellation mark), and compare the weights. Such a procedure would enable one to determine if a single die has an imbalance.

Of course, the problem of tolerances still remains, and one must still skilfully handle expensive, high-precision equipment.

" I've been getting killed making bets on tables suspected of using biased dice ! "

And yet you continue to bet ? DUH

Quote: Ahigh

I've been getting killed making bets on tables suspected of using biased dice!

100% of the time?? I doubt.

What about the 2 dice from your show that made the bias dice team go crazy?
Still got them?

boymimbo says to roll more dice.

Roll those dice and see if you get close to the same distribution from the original 140 rolls.
Are those dice for sale?
They are famous.

They should be in their own container kept away from all your other dice.

I would test random rolls of those dice against your controlled rolls that you produced.
A simple test that would be.
10 sessions of 140 dice rolls.

Results can be taken to the bank.

How much you want for the famous 2 dice again??

I ask because I have a new stick of casino dice from the Gamblers Book Store in Vegas from 2003.
They show no bias and it would be nice to own a pair of real biased dice (claimed)
that I did not load myself.

Quote: Ahigh

Then go and record rolls yourself! That's what I did.

There's no need for me to record the outcomes. I don't think the dice are biased at any casino I've played at. I said that several times in this discussion. I think these allegations are baseless.

Quote: Ahigh

If the story does get picked up by the media, I'm sure they will figure out a way to do their own independent investigation into the outcomes.

Sorry, Ahigh... there is no story. There is nothing to investigate. Ironically, my old newsroom was filled with craps players, and we frequently would have groups of about ten (sometimes including the news director) who would go to Vegas for weekends to play craps. We all loved the game. The news director frequently said that if it weren't the news business the career of choice would have been a craps dealer. We talked craps, we ate it, drank it, slept it, and we all read all the books about dice control and dice influencing and so forth. NEVER did anyone allege, suspect or even think about "biased dice." And these are people who normally and innately are curious and skeptical.

And because I am curious, and I am skeptical, I would like to see you prove that dice are biased and that casinos use biased dice. But I'm going to say it again -- recording rolls won't get anyone's attention and no one will consider your logs, charts or numbers as anything other than what might happen in a random game.

Now, if you had a worker from the dice company whisper that they intentionally manufactured off balance dice or that the pips do outweigh the base material in the cube making the 6s and 5s heavier faces, then you might have something that someone in the media might investigate.

Harley so far is closest to generating a true news story -- but he would have to show that the unmelting pips do in fact make the 6 and 5 faces heavier.

Quote: Ahigh

It's the outcomes that matter.

The outcomes, your sample, and your records can all be dismissed as being part of the random results of throwing dice-- especially at a casino which can't be described as laboratory conditions for measuirng bias. There are just too many variables on a craps table.

You criticized me before for saying that I am concentrating on the balance and weighting issue. Well, there is nothing else to be concerned with unless you tell me the pips are magnetic or that the pips are actually used to steer the dice by remote control. The issue is the weight and it is the balance and your recording rolls doesn't tell us anything about the weight or the balance of the dice.

Tupp, you want to know if I've been in court to testify? The answer is yes.

Have I put people in jail as the result of my investigations? The answer is yes.

Thanks so much for your taking time out of your critical time of covering real stories to tell me that this is not a story. Thanks for taking the time to tell me that you are 100% certain that all I saw was randomness, and not the result of any bias. I can now move on that I have it from an absolute reporting authority that there is no bias and no story.

And now for a commercial break.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr1VaL17sJQ

Be sure to visit all Boyd Casino craps tables for the best in max odds bets in Las Vegas!!!

Quote: Ahigh

First of all, this is Harley's theories, not mine. Secondly, I don't care to prove it or not, I just enjoy doing the research. Thirdly, recording these face counts is not all that much fun, and it's time consuming. I have a full time job too. So while I enjoy the research on the whole, I don't enjoy the part where I sit there for hours counting faces with chips. But I will undoubtedly continue this when I feel like I have some dice that are misbehaving.

For a guy not trying to prove anything, you certainly spend a lot of time defending what you found by recording the rolls, and you spend a lot of time responding to your critics.

I think you take the position of "don't care to prove it or not" and "enjoy doing the research" when people point out they don't see it your way.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The outcomes, your sample, and your records can all be dismissed as being part of the random results of throwing dice-- especially at a casino which can't be described as laboratory conditions for measuirng bias. There are just too many variables on a craps table.

That's an advantage for testing any bias. If the dice are flung by a variety of people on the table, it's MORE likely to give a random result. Having more things to variables means that any bias (given enough throws) would show up. If you can find it in the casino, you can find it in the lab if all the claim is that the dice have a inherent bias. If the claim is it requires a ful casino table, and the smoke and bouncing felt and the lady with low cut top at the end of the table to be throwing them, then, well... yeah.

Note that biased dice would still be random. Just not every side comes up with the same frequency, so not a uniform probability distribution.

Quote: AlanMendelson

For a guy not trying to prove anything, you certainly spend a lot of time defending what you found by recording the rolls, and you spend a lot of time responding to your critics.

I think you take the position of "don't care to prove it or not" and "enjoy doing the research" when people point out they don't see it your way.

What way do I see it? All I see is that there is reason to do more work to look into it.

I don't even KNOW how many times I have presented evidence just so everyone can tell me "you haven't proved anything."

It gets old, dude. Maybe it's the story teller in you that needs a conclusion.

"Back to you, Alan!"

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tupp, you want to know if I've been in court to testify?

No. I could not care less. And that was not the question that I asked

Quote: AlanMendelson

Have I put people in jail as the result of my investigations? The answer is yes.

Congratulations. What does that have to do with the question that I asked?

thecesspit... If I wanted to test dias for bias, I wouldn't want the dice hitting chips or alligator bumps, or thrown at different angles or from different heights. Because each of those variables would only add to the complexity of what effects the outcome of the dice.

Now, if I have it wrong, please explain.

Ahigh... why don't you start calling the news media yourself. Start with 60 Minutes.

EMAIL: 60m@cbsnews.com

PHONE: (212) 975-3247

Tupp, I think Ive said it several times. If I make allegations I have the evidence to support them in court if necessary.

Have I been in court? Yes. To testify in criminal cases.

Have I ever been challenged in a court case or been sued as the result of an investigation? No.

Quote: AlanMendelson

thecesspit... If I wanted to test dias for bias, I wouldn't want the dice hitting chips or alligator bumps, or thrown at different angles or from different heights. Because each of those variables would only add to the complexity of what effects the outcome of the dice.

I don't have time to find the paper, but there was a study that shows the more entropy or randomness in the throw and roll of the dice, the more random the result is. The more the dice tumbles, the better, in short.

The crocodiles, the chips and the felt are not something we need to control for. We are merely trying to prove that the dice chucked end up in a random state.

But by all means, chuck those dice 5000 times on a bare table, or set up a dice tower to test them with. Get them dice jiggling around and careening, and you'll see if there is bias.

Again see these guys : http://gamesbyemail.com/News/DiceOMatic - what chance do you reckon they are seeing bias in the 'cheap' gaming dice they are using?

delete

Alan, why not move on to theories that the earth is not round or that Bush planned 9/11. You would have a more interesting time than arguing with these Dice conspirists who continue to look for reasons why these lose at a negative expectation game. You are humoring them into thinking they are actually onto something here. And I guess we are all guilty by even posting on their topics. Seems most of the people that actually understand gambling and odds moved on.

Quote: Boz

Alan, why not move on to theories that the earth is not round or that Bush planned 9/11. You would have a more interesting time than arguing with these Dice conspirists who continue to look for reasons why these lose at a negative expectation game. You are humoring them into thinking they are actually onto something here. And I guess we are all guilty by even posting on their topics. Seems most of the people that actually understand gambling and odds moved on.

I need to qualify this: I am not a dice conspiracy theorist! I am collecting samples as a messenger of the theorists. My reputation and trustworthiness are being put on the line to bring data relating to this subject to this forum.

If anything, I am the guy who has historically DEBUNKED these theorists.

However, I am attempting to serve as an intermediary on the subject.

Dismissal of these guys is not the way to go when the evidence is in their favor!

I've agreed to go where the data takes me, and right now, the data is more likely the data of biased dice than it is of random dice for two of three recording sessions.

I would love it if this weren't the case, but it is.

If you haven't seen this performance, I state many of my views on biased dice theorists at the beginning of this show:

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/29067829

I honestly don't think it's fair to flatly reject Harley's theories in light of the fact that for certain casinos at certain times that *HE* identifies, dice are coming up with outcomes that match more closely what Harley describes than fair dice.

Quote: Ahigh

I honestly don't think it's fair to flatly reject Harley's theories in light of the fact that for certain casinos at certain times that *HE* identifies, dice are coming up with outcomes that match more closely what Harley describes than fair dice.

I don't know if I should be asking this of you Ahigh or Harley: please spell out your allegations including the names of the casinos, and are you saying they are defrauding their customers? What exactly are you alleging?

If you are going to go down this road... then go down the road. Spell it out so we know exactly what you are talking about. Make it clear, make it exact. Name names, name incidents, dates and times. Sign your name. And if you don't believe it, Ahigh, then let Harley do it. The warm up dance is over. Time to get down.

Too many trolololol's.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oavMtUWDBTM

And before you ask, that means boxcars.

(this is trying to make this a little more light hearted, sorry for anyone taking this too seriously).

There's a stick man who calls 12's this way "trololololol."

Quote: Ahigh

I honestly don't think it's fair to flatly reject Harley's theories in light of the fact that for certain casinos at certain times that *HE* identifies, dice are coming up with outcomes that match more closely what Harley describes than fair dice.

And at other "certain casinos at certain times" the outcomes match much less closely. That is the nature of the beast.

Thanks, Sancho. Do you live in Las Vegas, Sancho? If not, where do you live? Do you play at any Boyd casino properties?

This photo taken Sunday from the top of the parking lot at the Gold Coast.



Everyone generalizes.

I am providing the details. Feel free to consider them the same if you wish.

If the subject were this photo, I might be talking about the details of the clouds, and you would be saying what percentage of the days it is cloudy in Vegas.

Some people actually want to know, though, what exactly it was like, even if you are 100% correct in your generalization.

You want to talk about the beast?

The DEVIL is in the DETAILS.