TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1246
February 6th, 2013 at 12:16:57 PM permalink
OK, so the two casinos I frequent, will give my 25% of my average back PER hour...no matter HOW I bet.
Now, how I bet is:
$30 BUY on the point...with $1 vig paid on win only (or just place the 6/8 for $30 if it's the point)

The casino will give me back $7.50 per hour that I play like this. (Of course, they like me to play 4 hour stints, and they'll give me $30 for those 4 hours)

Am I getting shafted, or is it not too bad of a deal?
In other words, I know I've got like a 1.11%-1.52% HE against me (lowest edge - highest edge)
Is my expected loss less than $7.50 per hour? (My expected loss is just that $1 vig, correct?)
Thanks in advance!
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
February 6th, 2013 at 12:29:38 PM permalink
The big variable is how many rolls per hour the table is getting in. You are much better off playing this way at a slow & crowded table. If there is one throw per minute, I am pretty sure you are ahead of the game.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1246
February 6th, 2013 at 12:31:25 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

The big variable is how many rolls per hour the table is getting in. You are much better off playing this way at a slow & crowded table. If there is one throw per minute, I am pretty sure you are ahead of the game.


I would say about one throw per minute...I play Fri/Sat nights, so it's pretty jammed up (10 people at the table usually; a lot of prop betters and so on)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
Joined: Nov 7, 2012
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 92
February 6th, 2013 at 1:00:58 PM permalink
I didn't do the math, but I wrote a quick WinCraps script. (Again, when the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, you're buying the point for $30, with the $1 vig collected only on wins. When the point is 6 or 8, you're placing the point for $30.)

After about 15 million rolls, I'm showing that you'll lose ~$4.71/hour, assuming 60 rolls/hour.

You're probably getting more than 60 rolls/hour, even at a crowded table. I'm guessing it's closer to 90 rolls/hour, at which point you're still losing only ~$7.07/hour.

The break-even point (for your $7.50) seems to be around 95 rolls/hour.
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
February 6th, 2013 at 1:08:27 PM permalink
Quote: YouCanBetOnThat

I didn't do the math, but I wrote a quick WinCraps script. (Again, when the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, you're buying the point for $30, with the $1 vig collected only on wins. When the point is 6 or 8, you're placing the point for $30.)

After about 15 million rolls, I'm showing that you'll lose ~$4.71/hour, assuming 60 rolls/hour.

You're probably getting more than 60 rolls/hour, even at a crowded table. I'm guessing it's closer to 90 rolls/hour, at which point you're still losing only ~$7.07/hour.

The break-even point (for your $7.50) seems to be around 95 rolls/hour.



Those numbers look right. I'd say try to count the rolls over a 5-10 minute period, figure the /hour rate, and keep playing for comps if they are playing slower than 90 rolls/hour.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
February 6th, 2013 at 1:10:30 PM permalink
Sim data looks good.
Doing just the math with 3.375 rolls per come out roll and you only bet on the point established looks close to the sim data above

rolls per hrev# of bets
60-$4.8111.85
70-$5.6113.83
80-$6.4215.80
90-$7.2217.78
95-$7.6218.77
100-$8.0219.75
110-$8.8221.73
120-$9.6223.70
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1246
February 6th, 2013 at 1:19:27 PM permalink
So comps alone, it's basically a break-even play...this does not factor in the bounceback offers ($100 x2 per month)
Hmm...I may have to just have at it...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
Joined: Nov 7, 2012
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 92
February 6th, 2013 at 3:07:50 PM permalink
After 100 million simulated rolls, I'm getting EV slightly better than your results, 7craps, although our # of Bets is consistent.

Again, it appears that somewhere around 95 rolls/hour is the tipping point.

rolls per hrev# of bets
60-$4.7211.85
70-$5.5113.83
80-$6.3015.80
90-$7.0817.78
95-$7.4818.76
100-$7.8719.75
110-$8.6621.73
120-$9.4523.70
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
thezone
thezone
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 43
February 6th, 2013 at 3:17:00 PM permalink
Craps is the best game in the casino! Greatest probability of winning if you play correctly, understand the extenuating dynamics of the tables, and dont get too greedy. 'Dime' strategy... Discipline, Intelligence, Management, Energy. That is the winning formula, but takes years of hardship to figure it out.

Personally, I dont play for comps.. I play to win. Ill pay for my own meals. Too many people play for hours and hours just to get a meal comp... while losing 10x what they would pay for the meal. Sure it is great to get comps for whatever time you put in, just be smart and play to win.. then leave while you are up.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
February 6th, 2013 at 4:25:09 PM permalink
Quote: YouCanBetOnThat

After 100 million simulated rolls, I'm getting EV slightly better than your results, 7craps, although our # of Bets is consistent.

edit:
There is a reason for our slight differences in EV and you do not have to do any more sims to try and match my values.

We calculated, and simulated, the EV differently so our total resolved wagers per N rolls were different but not the average number of bets.

My calculations expected every bet made to be resolved. because I used EV for every calculation.

Your sim, when you divided by the rolls per hour, cuts off any bet made on that 60th roll or not resolved by the 60th roll for example.

TIMSPEED could play both ways, at 60 rolls come down since his bets are not a contract bet.
Or he could leave them up until the bet is resolved. That adds about 2.5 rolls on average.

Again nice work!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

  • Jump to: