So unbalanced dice everywhere or not?
Open Excel. Type in the following formula in cell A1.
=BINOMDIST(59,280,1/6,TRUE) [Press Enter]
see the result:
= .977649
- 59 is the number of 1s you threw (or any number)
- 280 is the number of trials (you are throwing two dice, that is two trials)
- 1/6 is the true probability of throwing that number
- True means it's cumulative
The answer shows the cumulative odds of throwing that number of rolls OR LESS. That means that only (1-.977649 = .022351) will throw more 1s than you.
That puts you in the lucky range. When you start getting above 99% or <1%, you can claim very lucky. You could probably claim bias at the 0.1% range.
Here's a handy dandy chart showing number of rolls (double it to get trials) and the its likelihood. Take it to the casino with you.
In the count total, use a pen to mark each number as it comes up. When you reach a certain total of rolls (60, 120, 180...), total up your count. Your total should be double the rolls (since there are two dice)
Then compare the total for each die with the chart to determine how lucky or unlucky the number is.
| Die | Count............................................... | Total | 60 | 120 | 180 | 240 | 300 | 360 | 420 | 480 | 540 | 600 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biased (>99.9%) | 33 | 59 | 83 | 106 | 129 | 152 | 174 | 197 | 219 | 241 | ||
| 2 | Very lucky (>99%) | 30 | 54 | 77 | 99 | 122 | 144 | 166 | 187 | 209 | 231 | ||
| 3 | Lucky (>90%) | 25 | 47 | 69 | 91 | 112 | 133 | 154 | 175 | 196 | 217 | ||
| 4 | Average (50%) | 20 | 40 | 60 | 80 | 100 | 120 | 140 | 160 | 180 | 200 | ||
| 5 | Unlucky (<10%) | 14 | 32 | 50 | 69 | 87 | 106 | 125 | 144 | 163 | 183 | ||
| 6 | Very unlucky (<1%) | 10 | 26 | 43 | 61 | 78 | 96 | 114 | 133 | 151 | 169 | ||
| Very biased (<.1%) | 7 | 22 | 38 | 55 | 72 | 89 | 107 | 124 | 142 | 160 |
Make your bets accordingly depending on how lucky you think you are. I'd be hardwaying any number with a very lucky bias (and leaving it on).
But as you can see, even after 300 rolls, let's say the 1 is showing bias at 99% (thrown 122 times). The true odds of throwing that die is actual 122/600 or 20.333%. That makes the Aces very profitable, because according to your rolls, the odds are (.20333^2) = .041344 of throwing Aces. That gives a player advantage of 28%.
Personally, I think that there is not any true bias until you hit the BIASED level and would act accordingly.
You're welcome.
A chi-squared test for each combination is easy to do
if interested this can step one thru it.
Excel actually has a function for it. Any 7 year old can crunch the numbers.
http://deltasdnd.blogspot.com/2009/02/testing-balanced-die.html
This concept of balance die has no interest for me
Too boring IMO
Rock on for those interested
And yeah, ChiSquared with 5 degrees of freedom works too.
That would be too easy to use two colors.
Still "loads" of fun
Nice table
If the "6" face is heavier shouldn't the "1" show more often?
So does your bias chart show which face is "down" or which number is "up" and showing?
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuestion:
If the "6" face is heavier shouldn't the "1" show more often?
So does your bias chart show which face is "down" or which number is "up" and showing?
Alan, in theory yes - however, you need to factor in centrifugal force with speed (the speed dice go down the table and reduced speed from bounce off the pyramids as well as directional force) ..... In classical mechanics, centrifugal force is an outward force associated with rotation ...... a simple physics test will show that when you throw an unbalanced object in a certain direction with rotation, the weighted or loaded part of the object will create a bias based on centrifugal force
Take a closer look at Video Part 11 for a better answer to your query
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMgNuEiQbtA&feature=youtu.be
Here I made sixes and ones twice as likely as the other faces just to make it really obvious what happens by looking at the histogram in terms of the frequency of various outcomes.
But with this new code, I can randomly generate rolls that go through a bias random number generator (essentially a lookup table that is generated by weighted integer values for how likely each face is going to occur).
I will go ahead and code up some of the other parts so that I can do some simulations and see if Koga's claims are true about not being able to exploit this heavy six and one face bias by using the don't side. But my initial thoughts are that if you would be able to kill on the don't side with the six and one faces of both dice being more likely.
It should be prefaced that the 140 rolls is a tiny miniscule sample, but this is fun going down this road anyway since Koga and Harley and Rick have a real excitement level for the possibility of this being real. I will just humor them for now since I'm so much into the fun factor and there's no reason to be a buzzkill.
Here's the same strategies with the exact weighted average bias for the outcome of the faces from the small sample of 140 throws from the show the other night.
This is a pretty cool thing that if you can show a bias in terms of weighted faces for each independent die, you can artificially generate tens of thousands of samples with that bias (two die-specific biases) and run betting strategies against it. No matter where you get the weighted bias for each of the six faces for each die, this lets you start with a theoretical bias per die, and run forward with suggestions on how to bet against it.
So now I'm looking for some weights for some bias that Harley and/or Koga Ninja have available from all the samples that they have gathered from the biased dice so I can tell what betting strategy will work to profit from the bias.
The edge in this game is so low that it doesn't matter what kind of bias there is, there is generally going to be a way to exploit it. So I guess my challenge is:
SHOW ME THE BIAS!!
And I will show you how to bet it!!
It should be obvious from these charts how not to bet it though (extreme heavy 6/1 faces that is). LOL. 10x odds gets KILLED WITH BARELY ANY LONG TERM HOPE AT ALL!!
Teddy may end up being a believer because he's been on a 10x odds chopping block scratching his head why the math didn't do what he thought it should have done. These charts may have a personal ring of familiarity to Teddy in fact.
Quote: AhighTotal sevens 29 - Seven outs 20 (68.97%) - Seven winners 9 (31.03%)
1. Did you change your set to snipe the Seven Come-Out winners ?
2. Can you rerun your 140 rolls with several Don't betting strategies and see if any survive your roll data ?
Thanks
Nah. I don't remember a lot of the SO's being 6-1 when I played, so I don't think I was playing with a bias. Plus, I played at a LOT of places.Quote: AhighIt should be obvious from these charts how not to bet it though (extreme heavy 6/1 faces that is). LOL. 10x odds gets KILLED WITH BARELY ANY LONG TERM HOPE AT ALL!!
Teddy may end up being a believer because he's been on a 10x odds chopping block scratching his head why the math didn't do what he thought it should have done. These charts may have a personal ring of familiarity to Teddy in fact.
Just freakin' bad luck!
Quote: HarleyAhigh - in an effort to further understand what is happening with biased dice, during The Ahigh Show, you had:
1. Did you change your set to snipe the Seven Come-Out winners ?
2. Can you rerun your 140 rolls with several Don't betting strategies and see if any survive your roll data ?
Thanks
My percentage of seven winners is about random, so I don't think so! I always use the same set and throw. The only thing I generally change is minor variations in the release.
Quote:
It should be obvious from these charts how not to bet it though (extreme heavy 6/1 faces that is). LOL. 10x odds gets KILLED WITH BARELY ANY LONG TERM HOPE AT ALL!!
Teddy may end up being a believer because he's been on a 10x odds chopping block scratching his head why the math didn't do what he thought it should have done. These charts may have a personal ring of familiarity to Teddy in fact.
Maybe you just proved something, and that is the so-called free odds are just a way of losing your money faster and was developed just to get you to bet the pass-line and lose your money! I've been saying that for years and even found it pointed out in the book “Casino Operations Management” on page 132 Odds (G) Decades ago, the odds bet was created as a marketing tool to encourage betting on the pass-line.
If your going to gamble it pays to read what the casinos are doing, and make rational decisions based on how the casinos are trying to beat you. A pass-line bet with full odds is one of the ways that they make their money faster, by locking you into a bet you have no control over, there is only two out comes. Common sense should tell you that a pass-line bet with full odds is going to lose more times then its going to win.
If it was the other way around, none of us would be playing craps in a casino, there would be no game to play. Casinos have no losing games on the casinos floors!
Quote:
teddys
Nah. I don't remember a lot of the SO's being 6-1 when I played, so I don't think I was playing with a bias. Plus, I played at a LOT of places.
The problem with that statement is most players never track a table, so you wouldn't know if it was bad luck or something else. Most players can't see a trend as it's happening, all they see is a 7 when they have money on the table that they just lost. The next time your at a table, ask the guy that is standing next to you what was rolled five rolls ago, I would bet that they don't know what the number was.
Now teddy I wouldn't recommend that you do that until you pass your bar exam, who knows one of these days I might need a good lawyer that knows about the casino industry!
"Duh," to coin a phrase. That's why you win more than you bet when it does win: 20% more for the 6/8, 50% more for the 5/9, and 100% more for the 4/10. Fairest bet in the casino. If you want a bet that wins more than it loses, play the Don't Pass (also the fairest bet in the casino, and one of the only times where you can lay money against an outcome besides sports betting). I really don't get the animus towards odds betting on the board. I got crushed playing it and I still think it's a good bet (in moderation).Quote: superrick
Common sense should tell you that a pass-line bet with full odds is going to lose more times then its going to win.
Quote: HarleyAhigh - in an effort to further understand what is happening with biased dice, during The Ahigh Show, you had:
1. Did you change your set to snipe the Seven Come-Out winners ?
2. Can you rerun your 140 rolls with several Don't betting strategies and see if any survive your roll data ?
Thanks
Total sevens 29 - Seven outs 20 (68.97%) - Seven winners 9 (31.03%)Quote: AhighMy percentage of seven winners is about random, so I don't think so! I always use the same set and throw. The only thing I generally change is minor variations in the release.
About random?? How about dead on random.
(165/557) * 29 = 8.59
Even the 29 7s in 140 rolls is not a rare event. Happens about 12% of the time (29 or more)
Did anyone notice Ahigh established 23 points in his 20 hands (did not count the last roll) and only 3 passed?
That does not happen every day.
Just Laying the point for $100 ($99 on the 5&9 and $96 on the 6&8) would have turned a $1k bankroll into $2054 after all the upfront vigs were paid.
I do not have all his other dice rolls handy, would be interesting to see how he makes points
Maybe he shoots down points way more than the average shooter.
Hand 4 and Hand 17 had the point winners
(they were fast winners, no other box numbers rolled between the come out roll and the winner roll)
hand# 1
cor 9 12 4h 4 2 4 7 out
hand# 1 7 rolls
hand# 2
cor 7 win
cor 10 4 9 4 7 out
hand# 2 6 rolls
hand# 3
cor 7 win
cor 7 win
cor 6 10 9 9 8h 3 2 8 8 7 out
hand# 3 12 rolls
hand# 4
cor 11 win
cor 7 win
cor 10 10 win
cor 9 6 6 5 5 12 8 6 7 out
hand# 4 13 rolls
hand# 5
cor 6 5 7 out
hand# 5 3 rolls
hand# 6
cor 7 win
cor 6h 9 10 4 7 out
hand# 6 6 rolls
hand# 7
cor 7 win
cor 10 6 9 8 9 7 out
hand# 7 7 rolls
hand# 8
cor 7 win
cor 6 12 10h 10 11 7 out
hand# 8 7 rolls
hand# 9
cor 6h 7 out
hand# 9 2 rolls
hand# 10
cor 3 crap out
cor 11 win
cor 9 5 6 7 out
hand# 10 6 rolls
hand# 11
cor 8 5 9 3 9 7 out
hand# 11 6 rolls
hand# 12
cor 3 crap out
cor 9 5 10 8h 2 6 5 7 out
hand# 12 9 rolls
hand# 13
cor 7 win
cor 8 11 7 out
hand# 13 4 rolls
hand# 14
cor 6 9 8 7 out
hand# 14 4 rolls
hand# 15
cor 10h 11 8 3 12 7 out
hand# 15 6 rolls
hand# 16
cor 11 win
cor 3 crap out
cor 11 win
cor 3 crap out
cor 10h 6 9 7 out
hand# 16 8 rolls
hand# 17
cor 11 win
cor 8 8 win
cor 8 12 8 win
cor 6 2 8h 4h 8 7 out
hand# 17 12 rolls
hand# 18
cor 2 crap out
cor 8h 10 10 4 7 out
hand# 18 6 rolls
hand# 19
cor 7 win
cor 6 4 7 out
hand# 19 4 rolls
hand# 20
cor 3 crap out
cor 3 crap out
cor 2 crap out
cor 6 3 3 5 3 10 5 7 out
hand# 20 11 rolls
Math says 50% on average are
7
6<<
12
13
3<<
6<<
7
7
2<<
6<<
6<<
9
4<<
4<<
6<<
8
12
6<<
4<<
11
Random results everywhere
Quote:
"Duh," to coin a phrase. That's why you win more than you bet when it does win: 20% more for the 6/8, 50% more for the 5/9, and 100% more for the 4/10. Fairest bet in the casino. If you want a bet that wins more than it loses, play the Don't Pass (also the fairest bet in the casino, and one of the only times where you can lay money against an outcome besides sports betting). I really don't get the animus towards odds betting on the board. I got crushed playing it and I still think it's a good bet (in moderation).
There are no fair bets on a craps table, even your so-called free odds bet, because you are paying for that bet with you pass-line bet.
The reason most players that have studied the game and read everything they could about how the casinos are run, is prejudiced against the so-called free odds is it does what it was designed to do and that is take your money!
I guess that you only learn the hard way, I wasn't the one that wrote this!
Quote:I got crushed playing it and I still think it's a good bet (in moderation).
If you do stick around Vegas, I would check out our library system as It is one of the best in the nation when it comes to getting any book on gaming and casino management.
Thanks. I do want to read C.O.M. at some point. Casino-ology was great, but limited. The library system in Las Vegas is terrible generally. The downtown library is basically a homeless shelter. I got kicked out of there for minding my own business. (Was sitting in the kids section because it was quiet.) Haven't been to the one on Maryland and Flamingo.Quote: superrick
If you do stick around Vegas, I would check out our library system as It is one of the best in the nation when it comes to getting any book on gaming and casino management.
Quote:teddy
Thanks. I do want to read C.O.M. at some point. Casino-ology was great, but limited. The library system in Las Vegas is terrible generally. The downtown library is basically a homeless shelter. I got kicked out of there for minding my own business. (Was sitting in the kids section because it was quiet.) Haven't been to the one on Maryland and Flamingo.
Well you can always head over to UNLV Library!
Here is a link to what you can find on gaming: http://webpac.library.unlv.edu/search/X?SEARCH=gaming&searchscope=1&submit.x=15&submit.y=6
Now if you only want to read craps books you might want to look at these:
http://webpac.library.unlv.edu/search~S1?/Xcraps&searchscope=1&SORT=DZ/Xcraps&searchscope=1&SORT=DZ&extended=1&SUBKEY=craps/1%2C254%2C254%2CE/2browse
While a lot of these books are for only research and you can not check them out, you can still use their library!
Wow, that's a lot of books!Quote: superrickNow if you only want to read craps books you might want to look at these:
http://webpac.library.unlv.edu/search~S1?/Xcraps&searchscope=1&SORT=DZ/Xcraps&searchscope=1&SORT=DZ&extended=1&SUBKEY=craps/1%2C254%2C254%2CE/2browse
While a lot of these books are for only research and you can not check them out, you can still use their library!
Looks like they have a whole special section devoted to gaming books.
AHigh might be interested in "A Guide to Craps Lingo: From Snakeeyes to Muleteeth."
I am especially interested in these two books from Hi-Lo-Yo Publishing:
"You Can Earn Each Hour $12 to $24 Playing Casino Craps" and
"Casino Craps is a Vicious $$ Devouring Game."
Both by Zeke Feinberg.
I wonder if he figured something out.
UNLV has the International Gaming Institute at it just in case you or Ahigh didn't know it. That's why they have such a extensive library on gaming. If your still in town and want to read some of my library on gaming PM me.
Quote: AhighI would strongly advise against trying to pull this for big money against the Wynn.
If you took Joker's Wild for $5,000 over a year long period of time, I doubt they would even have the resources to come after you.
Joker's Wild is owned by Boyd Gaming, which has: 15 casinos, 21,000 slot machines, 15,000 employees, 7,500 hotel rooms, and $2 billion in revenue. They have the resources.
They wear Boyd Gaming shirts.Quote: AhighI did not know that. I wonder why they don't use the same player card as all the other Boyd owned properties.
Quote: Robert Oswald... two days ago I met up with a buddy in the delta region and played some craps. ... in the Tunica region
So I get there and meet up with him, he's already at the craps table in the heat of battle. When I walk up to him he tells me, "you better play the Don't if you wanna win." So I cash in for a marginal amount just $100 and get into position. There were not many people playing at the crap table and people would come and go as if in any small casino. Well the first 4 times I got the dice in my hands it was point and 7-out within about 5-6 rolls. The 5-count saved my ass from my own hand early on but things did turn on my 5th and 6th turn with the dice.
After about two and a half hours the buffett was calling my name and I made a $126 profit and cashed out, I was satisfied with a double up, especially because everyone else who set foot on that table lost. It was a tough two and a half hours.
During dinner me and my friend discussed some things that I noticed on the crap table and I was wondering if he noticed them as well. I seen a plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs from all the shooters while playing (I don't think anyone else noticed), a complete dice set change before it was my turn to throw, and I tried to stress to my buddy that we should go find a better table ...
It really makes one wonder if the casinos are using biased dice. For me this subject has become quite a buzz in the small craps community. Sure I've seen the videos put out over the internet by koganinja and he makes a good point using the calipers. Some reasons why I think this could occur is because the economy is down in the dumps on a global scale, the dollars losing value faster than a busted NFL lottery pick, the casino industry as a whole in North America has had to have taken a HUGE hit to their bottom lines since the crash of 2008, the Las Vegas real estate market crashed which means less people in Sin City, and Dr. Loveman's stance on lobbying Congress to raise the retirement age to 70, the evil bastard, however thats a subject in and of itself. There is a lot of unanswered questions yet to be answered.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/13620749084/?fref=ts
Even Koga admits that he never responded to the work that I did. He just went off as a result of my show jumping to conclusions before I had a chance to follow up.
Even my balance is subject to false reads if the geometry is off.
Not understanding false reads from geometry at the corners (or on the face with my balance) is the most common mistake IMO.
It leads to lots of speculation that things are not as they seem.
For those who do not have the word plethora in their vocabulary :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mTUmczVdik
Quote: BuzzardI seen a plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs from all the shooters while playing
For those who do not have the word plethora in their vocabulary :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mTUmczVdik
I was OK with the vocabulary used, but the grammar threw me a bit.
"I seen a plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs from all the shooters while playing (I don't think anyone else noticed),"
At all of the craps games I ever played at, you could only seven-out with 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3. So seeing a lot of 6-1 and 5-2 seven-outs doesn't particularly strike me as unusual.
And given that each shooter can seven-out only once per hand, having more shooters go out with 6-1 or 5-2 also seems to lose its significance.
Perhaps I am not tuned in to the appropriate message here?
Six stack of chips for a full count.
But on the 6-1 versus 2,3,4,5 basis, I made two stacks and looked to see how close the ratio was to 1:2.
A lower percentage of 6's and 1's usually results in more favorable results to the do's I think because the points made are easier to hit and there is less crap.
Each time you roll a 4 or a 10 on a non-comeout roll, you lose 1/3 of your bet right there. Avoiding that is good.
IE: you're more likely to win if it's easier to hit again.
But obviously, if all you roll is 1-3 and 6-4 over and over, the higher ratio of 1's and 6's is going to go your way too.
Correlations between "good rolls" and frequency of sixes and ones is interesting no matter what the cause of the frequency being off is.
It's interesting.
But biased dice? I don't know, I am still the eternal skeptic on unbalanced biased dice.
Much easier to convince me players are burning corners and grinding them in their hands and throwing them into the mirrors than the casinos doing that kind of chicanery.
Quote: AlanMendelsonExcuse me while I have a good laugh about this quote:
"I seen a plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs from all the shooters while playing (I don't think anyone else noticed),"
At all of the craps games I ever played at, you could only seven-out with 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3. So seeing a lot of 6-1 and 5-2 seven-outs doesn't particularly strike me as unusual.
And given that each shooter can seven-out only once per hand, having more shooters go out with 6-1 or 5-2 also seems to lose its significance.
Perhaps I am not tuned in to the appropriate message here?
Alan -- the plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs is extremely significant and probably 1 of the 2 easiest ways to spot biased dice on a live craps table when the pips are significantly heavier than the plastic cube ...due to physics, the 3s and 4s will significantly decrease --- if I could Lay the Hard 6 and the Hard 8, it would be the best bet in the house with these particular unbalanced dice .... and when you Hop the 7s, no need to waste monies on the 4-3
Before Sahara closed, we charted one afternoon 29 Sevens -- the dice were so unbalanced that only 2 (two) 4-3 Seven-outs were recorded out of 29 ... what are the odds of that happening not only once, but proportionately every day at Sahara with a certain set of serial numbered dice ..... Sahara was sweating the money, they were desperate to get as much profit before they closed.
You are just making wild jumps about the 6-1 stuff. I'm not seeing it. I've got that unbalanced die, and I'm randomly tossing it, and I see nothing yet.
Come and pick it up and toss it a couple thousand times and give me the data, and I will crunch it.
Without the data, there's nothing. 140 rolls is nothing. We need 5000 or more.
That die from last week was imbalanced, but not by much at all. My balance is sensitive!
The caliper that Koga uses shows the die as being balanced the OPPOSITE way just from the worn corners.
Quote: HarleyAlan -- the plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs is extremely significant and probably 1 of the 2 easiest ways to spot biased dice on a live craps table when the pips are significantly heavier than the plastic cube ...due to physics, the 3s and 4s will significantly decrease --- if I could Lay the Hard 6 and the Hard 8, it would be the best bet in the house with these particular unbalanced dice .... and when you Hop the 7s, no need to waste monies on the 4-3
Before Sahara closed, we charted one afternoon 29 Sevens -- the dice were so unbalanced that only 2 (two) 4-3 Seven-outs were recorded out of 29 ... what are the odds of that happening not only once, but proportionately every day at Sahara with a certain set of serial numbered dice ..... Sahara was sweating the money, they were desperate to get as much profit before they closed.
Then why not bet "Big Red" and the "Horn"? If the proportion of 1,2,5 and 6 is out of wack, you should have cleaned up, potentially wiping out all the profit to be made by intentionally using dice that don't come up 3-4.
Quote: AyecarumbaQuote: HarleyAlan -- the plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs is extremely significant and probably 1 of the 2 easiest ways to spot biased dice on a live craps table when the pips are significantly heavier than the plastic cube ...due to physics, the 3s and 4s will significantly decrease --- if I could Lay the Hard 6 and the Hard 8, it would be the best bet in the house with these particular unbalanced dice .... and when you Hop the 7s, no need to waste monies on the 4-3
Before Sahara closed, we charted one afternoon 29 Sevens -- the dice were so unbalanced that only 2 (two) 4-3 Seven-outs were recorded out of 29 ... what are the odds of that happening not only once, but proportionately every day at Sahara with a certain set of serial numbered dice ..... Sahara was sweating the money, they were desperate to get as much profit before they closed.
Then why not bet "Big Red" and the "Horn"? If the proportion of 1,2,5 and 6 is out of wack, you should have cleaned up, potentially wiping out all the profit to be made by intentionally using dice that don't come up 3-4.
I've asked Harley for data from these mysteriously biased dice, and I have NEVER gotten it.
If we had a set of data from these mysteriously biased dice, the data could be run through a Monte Carlo simulator to either demonstrate what Harley is talking about or simply demonstrate how to take advantage of the bias.
The data doesn't exist, and so therefore the bias doesn't exist.
Once we have a couple thousand rolls of data from a biased stick of five dice, we might BEGIN to have the discussions to arrive at the conclusions Harley arrives at from a hundred throws.
Until then, it's a damn hundred throws! And what?
Quote: Ahigh... You are just making wild jumps about the 6-1 stuff. I'm not seeing it. I've got that unbalanced die, and I'm randomly tossing it, and I see nothing yet.
Come and pick it up and toss it a couple thousand times and give me the data, and I will crunch it.
Without the data, there's nothing. 140 rolls is nothing. We need 5000 or more.
That die from last week was imbalanced, but not by much at all. My balance is sensitive!
Ahigh - without a balancer, I was able to observe your dice on your table and tell you that your dice were unbalanced .... I did not need 140 rolls .... I can usually name that tune in less than 30 rolls without a balancer on a live table .... you have to be able to do it or you will succumb to unbalanced dice and the casino's increased edge !! .... you cannot wait for 5000 rolls or your bankroll will be gone by then.
Similarly, Caesar's LV employs 6:5 BlackJack on every one of their BJ tables in their Pussycat Dolls Party Pit -- yet there is not a single sign announcing it --- you have to recognize it or fall victim
Quote: HarleyAhigh - without a balancer, I was able to observe your dice on your table and tell you that your dice were unbalanced .... I did not need 140 rolls .... I can usually name that tune in less than 30 rolls without a balancer on a live table .... you have to be able to do it or you will succumb to unbalanced dice and the casino's increased edge !! .... you cannot wait for 5000 rolls or your bankroll will be gone by then.
Similarly, Caesar's LV employs 6:5 BlackJack on every one of their BJ tables in their Pussycat Dolls Party Pit -- yet there is not a single sign announcing it --- you have to recognize it or fall victim
You are really exposing a weakness in how you characterize imbalanced dice.
I still have those dice and they don't have the same characteristics of heavy on the 6/1's anymore.
What do you think happened to them?
Here is what I think: I think the imbalance was negligible because it was so minute. I think that the corner wear was more significant, but neither were that significant.
I think that basically what was experienced was a lot of bad luck that caused a bunch of sevens to appear that were 6/1 seven outs.
If, however, you are right, I still have those dice for you to test on. Why don't you come and get them from me?
But guess what? You aren't going to get the same histogram you got in the first 140 rolls if you keep rolling those dice. You should already know that.
Just as sure as you are that the dice are not balanced properly, another person is sure that the new stick man caused it. Is he right too because he is also sure?
Do you believe in superstitions like that?
Quote: Ayecarumba... Then why not bet "Big Red" and the "Horn"? If the proportion of 1,2,5 and 6 is out of wack, you should have cleaned up, potentially wiping out all the profit to be made by intentionally using dice that don't come up 3-4.
You could do this -- there are a thousand ways to win on a craps table -- but also recognize that 99% of the casinos have very restricted unwritten limits on these prop bets you mention ... they can change at any time (except in the state of Mississippi, which requires a 15 minute notice by law)
Also note that not all Percentage dice (or unbalanced biased dice) are created equal, so you have to know which dice are giving you which bias.
Now what you are saying is the guy that is far superior to everybody else when he is shooting is having bad luck?
Quote:
I think that basically what was experienced was a lot of bad luck that caused a bunch of sevens to appear that were 6/1 seven outs.
Yes.
There is a percentage that is luck, and if there is ANY skill at all, it affects a single digit or so towards something besides luck.
So luck is the predominate force at work no matter HOW GOOD YOU ARE.
I thought you knew this though? This is news?
Quote: Ahigh... Here is what I think: I think the imbalance was negligible because it was so minute. I think that the corner wear was more significant, but neither were that significant.
I think that basically what was experienced was a lot of bad luck that caused a bunch of sevens to appear that were 6/1 seven outs.
If, however, you are right, I still have those dice for you to test on. Why don't you come and get them from me?
Do you believe in superstitions like that?
Of course energy comes into play, but superstitions have nothing to do with gravity of imbalance .... even after you used your Caliper the first time and you said the dice were balanced -- I still disagreed, believing what I had seen with my eyes over your balancer and stating that you must have used your own balancer incorrectly (The Nevada Gaming Commission balancers -- all 2 of them - have the same problem of braking or stopping the dice from a free spin all too often also ) .... to your credit, I appreciate you using your balancer again to show the imbalance was there that was evident in your roll data
I appreciate the offer to play with your dice, but I do not play at that casino --- I collect data from current Las Vegas casinos so that I can exploit them
Quote: HarleyAlan -- the plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs is extremely significant and probably 1 of the 2 easiest ways to spot biased dice on a live craps table when the pips are significantly heavier than the plastic cube ...due to physics, the 3s and 4s will significantly decrease --- if I could Lay the Hard 6 and the Hard 8, it would be the best bet in the house with these particular unbalanced dice .... and when you Hop the 7s, no need to waste monies on the 4-3
Before Sahara closed, we charted one afternoon 29 Sevens -- the dice were so unbalanced that only 2 (two) 4-3 Seven-outs were recorded out of 29 ... what are the odds of that happening not only once, but proportionately every day at Sahara with a certain set of serial numbered dice ..... Sahara was sweating the money, they were desperate to get as much profit before they closed.
The odds of 2 or less 7 outs appearing by the 4-3 method is 0.09% in 29 trials... highly unlikely but with the low number of trials not impossible by any stretch.
Quote: HarleyAlan -- the plethora of 6-1, 5-2 seven outs is extremely significant
Did you also happen to keep track of the winner-7s on the come out?
Quote: Buzzard" So luck is the predominate force at work no matter HOW GOOD YOU ARE" Glad you have finally seen the light !
Absolutely, until you get enough samples on flat bets where you start to see the edge. When you see the edge, you want it to be your edge not their edge.
Again, I thought you would already know this. But luck matters the most in the short run, and edge matters the most in the long run (assuming you're flat betting and consistently).
Almost all runs on the craps tables while you have the dice are short. Especially when it is busy and/or when you don't have the table to yourself.
The MAJORITY of the time I play in the casino, I am the only one at the table. Sometimes there is one other person. Maybe two.
But when it's full table, to be honest, I do more watching than playing these days.
But if I do play, in the short runs or in crowds, and when I am betting bigger money, I'm gambling just like everyone else and I love it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonDid you also happen to keep track of the winner-7s on the come out?
Alan, This is a good point .... you want to see how the dice are reacting to gravity freely, not from someone trying to influence or setting for a 7 --- those influenced 7s have to be discounted from the data base ....
It is in no way our job to say why dice are unbalanced, however close observation will show you why too many Dice are Unbalanced. The pips (white spots) are made of a different material than the plastic colored cube itself. Too often this will create heavier weight on the 5/6 side of the die as compared to the opposite side 1/2. This gives an 11:3 ratio of weighted material that creates the imbalance and bias on a craps table.
To demonstrate, we have melted a group of casino dice obtained in Las Vegas - you too can do this at home:
Notice how the white pips (dots) are so much more sturdier than the plastic cube !! The white pips are so much more heavy-duty that they have retained 100% of their properties when exposed to heat. Meanwhile the lighter plastic cubes (dice) have nearly disintegrated and merged together. Here is a close-up view:
And I saw your blog page, and in fact, I posted a link on my own forum for my TV show. (It's a real TV show, by the way.) What we'd all like to know is if you ever weighed the pip material and does it differ from the weight (mass) of the cube material?
Quote: HarleyNotice how the white pips (dots) are so much more sturdier than the plastic cube !! The white pips are so much more heavy-duty that they have retained 100% of their properties when exposed to heat. Meanwhile the lighter plastic cubes (dice) have nearly disintegrated and merged together.
The weight and the melting point of a substance are two different properties. The pips could have an identical (or very similar) weight to the body material of the dice, but the melting point of these two substances could be dramatically different.
A higher melting point does not mean that a material is heavier. Mercury is heavier than the body of the dice, but it has a much lower melting point.
Additionally, if the pips are a different compound, they could also be lighter than the body material.
Furthermore, there could be a variable of thermal transfer at the juncture between the body of the dice and the pips. How did you apply heat?
In dice it's luck in both the short run and the long run. Luck is just luck, nor more or no less.
