dice control

Quote: sodawater

ahigh, are you interested in betting $50 vs my $25, same terms as soopoo?

No, those really aren't terms that make any sense to me.

I'm putting in a lot of effort, but I like to keep my bets at the casino for now.

Quote: nickolay411

Btw I'm not trying to prove anything by doing this challenge. Like most of you already said nothing can be proven from 200 rolls. I'm doing it to meet some of you guys, test my ability strictly for self purposes and most of all for fun!

Cheers,
Nick

Sir, you get my respect for doing this, for what it is worth (not much) and regardless of the result. If you want to book another bet if small action later on, fire me a private message closer to the time.

Here's the results from the last 174 rolls .. I would not been very likely to win 30 or fewer as I only had allowances fro two more in 26 rolls.

23`13`44`12`62`51`54`21`43`63`64`32`63`22`43`54`65`23`43`53`54`22`64`42`22`63`51`33`52`54
62`33`52`64`21`65`65`53`53`41`22`65`62`62`63`42`62`22`61`33`65`43`44`33`32`52`53`43`32`61
63`65`31`62`32`54`65`41`63`62`32`61`54`23`41`53`65`54`63`62`65`23`21`66`31`62`31`22`54`21
21`43`53`23`55`52`52`62`42`63`63`63`21`51`53`51`66`23`63`41`44`23`42`44`43`63`63`41`61`64
23`51`63`53`41`63`41`55`21`42`66`52`42`43`23`62`41`61`63`22`52`21`44`63`51`62`23`61`62`43
61`62`51`51`21`53`43`23`23`66`62`53`64`61`52`51`54`62`53`42`43`63`55`52
Total rolls: 174
FACES
1) 39 11.21% - 16.67 = (-5.46)---------------------------------- 1
2) 73 20.98% - 16.67 = (+4.31)--------------------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 69 19.83% - 16.67 = (+3.16)------------------------------------------------------------ 3
4) 50 14.37% - 16.67 = (-2.30)-------------------------------------------- 4
5) 53 15.23% - 16.67 = (-1.44)---------------------------------------------- 5
6) 64 18.39% - 16.67 = (+1.72)-------------------------------------------------------- 6

OUTCOMES
11: 2
21: ---------- 3
22: -------------- 4
31: ---- 4
32: ----------------- 5
41: -------- 5
33: -------- 6
42: ------- 6
51: --------- 6
61: -------- 7
52: --------- 7
43: ----------- 7
53: ----------- 8
44: ---------- 8
62: ---------------- 8
63: ------------------ 9
54: --------- 9
55: ------ 10
64: ----- 10
65: --------- 11
66: -------- 12

RESULTS (SUM)
2) 0 0.00% - 2.78% = -2.78% (-4.83) 2
3) 10 5.75% - 5.56% = 0.19% (+0.33)---------- 3
4) 11 6.32% - 8.33% = -2.01% (-3.50)----------- 4
5) 25 14.37% - 11.11% = 3.26% (+5.67)------------------------- 5
6) 20 11.49% - 13.89% = -2.39% (-4.17)-------------------- 6
7) 28 16.09% - 16.67% = -0.57% (-1.00)---------------------------- 7
8) 32 18.39% - 13.89% = 4.50% (+7.83)-------------------------------- 8
9) 27 15.52% - 11.11% = 4.41% (+7.67)--------------------------- 9
10) 8 4.60% - 8.33% = -3.74% (-6.50)--------10
11) 9 5.17% - 5.56% = -0.38% (-0.67)---------11
12) 4 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.48% (-0.83)----12

Total sevens 28 - Seven outs 20 (71.43%) - Seven winners 8 (28.57%)
Pairs 23 13.22% - 16.67% = -3.45% (-6.00 rolls)
Hards 19 10.92% - 11.11% = -0.19% (-0.33 rolls)
HiLos 4 2.30% - 5.56% = -3.26% (-5.67 rolls)

PAIRS:
H2 0/0 ( 0.00% - 2.78% = -4.83)
H4 7/1 ( 4.02% - 2.78% = +2.17)
H6 4/1 ( 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.83)
H8 5/3 ( 2.87% - 2.78% = +0.17)
H10 3/0 ( 1.72% - 2.78% = -1.83)
H12 4/1 ( 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.83)

Aaron, when I come in February, I'm gonna hit you up to go head-to-head on your table...hopefully we can get some time to hit up the real tables too...we definitely have different throwing styles, but in effect come to the same result...

So, on the analysis of your 1,109 roll set with the 62 62 set that you posted earlier, none of your results were outside of random. You threw the 2 more often than normal (only 15% more than normal) and the 6 less often (only 10% throw less 6s).

On the combined results, you threw 32 / 74 / 89 / 127 / 158 / 178 / 147 / 124 / 89 / 51 / 40 for the rolls 2 to 12. A Chi-Squared analysis totalled 8.15 with the 2-tailed P of .6135, nothing special.

In short, in that data set, there is no evidence of dice influence.

In the data set you just rolled, obviously the odds of you throwing a "2" is highly improbable (<0.1%) while you threw a high amount of 8s (96%) and 9s (97%). The overall Chi Squared significance is 17.8962 with a P value of .0792. This means that your dice rolling is not random. On the individual dice throws obviously you threw the 1 far less than average (0.27%) and the 2 far more than average (98.5%). This is very signficant, and also unlikely.

Take that as you will. It means one of two things.

The indication of your last 174 rolls indicated you have no infuence over the dice and you
have no advanatage at table which the exception of a very slight advantage of SRR withg a 6.21 over a completely
random 6.00.

A random roller would expect 29 7's in 174 rolls you had 28
your on axis throws was only 40.8% this asumes your setting the same way each roll.

I just got finished with my weekly practice rolls, I get in 500 rolls a week before playing on the weekend.
My record indicates that i had 500 rolls, 45 7's and an on axis record of 53.5%
The expected number of 7's for a random roller would have been 83.

This was a good week of practice again showing a clear advantage over the casino... but it does not mean
a thing, tommorrow is a different day, different table, when you get to be my age, your hand can
can be different. The only thing i know is that i have a game plan, i know how to bet, i know what
my throw should look like, where the dice should land. I know what my advantage is if that happens
and i bet accordingly, i have seen my buddies throw hundreds of time, i know what his looks like
and how to bet when he looks right.

When i get there i take the dice 5 times.,.... if my throw is there, i will do fine,, if not i dont play
i wont play if i dont have an advantage. He will do the same, we are not there to get drunk, show off
or get comps....we are there to make money....

dicesitter

boymimbo and dicesitter

You have came up with the same conclusion that I did the last time I analyzed Ahigh rolls, random as any shooter on the table, his hardways that he was braging about was below random-expectation too!
Just goes to show you that if your a gambler you can convice yourself of anything you want to!

Numbers have a way of clumping sometimes. The hardways that he was braging about were just clumps. It's no big deal to make 5 hardways back to back, if you play the game enough it's bound to happened sometime. I've done it before and never thought anything of it, besides I just got lucky when it happened. There was one time that I had parlayed it from a $1 to $800 and my wife and her girlfriend made me take it down, you can only guess what the next roll was! I told her that I never wanted her to come to the table after that if I had the dice.

That was years ago, and she still will say away from the table unless I say she can come over to the table. That day I couldn't do anything wrong, and was just getting lucky.
Now a lot of guys call me a DI, and I play all the time, and just like dicesitter I know that what I do at home doesn't mean a thing.

I would never use any data that I got from rolling at home. You don't have the same conditions at home.
I will never practice before I go to a casino, thinking that I can't do anything wrong, because everything looked so good at home. It's all about what happens in a real casino.
I don't buy-in for thousands only to play a few dollars to impress anybody, I don't play for comps and could care less if I ever got any. I don't want anybody knowing who I'm, that has anything to do with a casino.

I will always tell anybody that I have my bad days and the days that I can't do anything wrong. The one thing I learned a long, long time ago was if you didn't know how to bet the game I don't care how good of a shooter you think you are, you are going to lose. I track every table I play on and every shooter while I'm there. That's why I say BS to the fact, that all the great fiction writers on the game of craps say you can't bet on the so-called random rollers.

They get just as lucky as the so-called DI's and have way more longer rolls then the so-called DI's. When you think about it, it's bound to happen, the so-called random rollers out number the DI's tens of thousands to one!

If your not taking the data off tables from when you are shooting in a casino you might as well throw it away, because when you walk into a casino, everything changes. If you think of yourself as a DI and your are going into the same casinos everyday, you are a fool, the same thing goes for anybody that calls themselves a DI and will continue to play on a table when big money hits the felt, if they are a local player.

Ahigh if your data says random at home what do you think it will say on real casino tables?
I must tell you that you do keep these threads you are posting on very entertaining, only because you refuse to see what you are writing. If you post random data, what are we to think, but there is no such thing as a DI, that even goes for me. I just get lucky and the casinos see me to often!
With that said, I want to make one comment about your videos, please keep posting the, I love them, they tell the true story, we all are getting lucky when we are on a roll and the casinos have nothing to worry about anybody that sets the dice!

superrick

Quote: nickolay411

My hand will be tired. Might need a 2 hour break before we go and do that...

And you will be broke. You are offering 2:1 ?

That's so bold my head is spinning.

Quote: superrick

boymimbo and dicesitter

You have came up with the same conclusion that I did the last time I analyzed Ahigh rolls, random as any shooter on the table, his hardways that he was braging about was below random-expectation too!
Just goes to show you that if your a gambler you can convice yourself of anything you want to!

Numbers have a way of clumping sometimes. The hardways that he was braging about were just clumps. It's no big deal to make 5 hardways back to back, if you play the game enough it's bound to happened sometime. I've done it before and never thought anything of it, besides I just got lucky when it happened. There was one time that I had parlayed it from a $1 to $800 and my wife and her girlfriend made me take it down, you can only guess what the next roll was! I told her that I never wanted her to come to the table after that if I had the dice.

That was years ago, and she still will say away from the table unless I say she can come over to the table. That day I couldn't do anything wrong, and was just getting lucky.
Now a lot of guys call me a DI, and I play all the time, and just like dicesitter I know that what I do at home doesn't mean a thing.

I would never use any data that I got from rolling at home. You don't have the same conditions at home.
I will never practice before I go to a casino, thinking that I can't do anything wrong, because everything looked so good at home. It's all about what happens in a real casino.
I don't buy-in for thousands only to play a few dollars to impress anybody, I don't play for comps and could care less if I ever got any. I don't want anybody knowing who I'm, that has anything to do with a casino.

I will always tell anybody that I have my bad days and the days that I can't do anything wrong. The one thing I learned a long, long time ago was if you didn't know how to bet the game I don't care how good of a shooter you think you are, you are going to lose. I track every table I play on and every shooter while I'm there. That's why I say BS to the fact, that all the great fiction writers on the game of craps say you can't bet on the so-called random rollers.

They get just as lucky as the so-called DI's and have way more longer rolls then the so-called DI's. When you think about it, it's bound to happen, the so-called random rollers out number the DI's tens of thousands to one!

If your not taking the data off tables from when you are shooting in a casino you might as well throw it away, because when you walk into a casino, everything changes. If you think of yourself as a DI and your are going into the same casinos everyday, you are a fool, the same thing goes for anybody that calls themselves a DI and will continue to play on a table when big money hits the felt, if they are a local player.

Ahigh if your data says random at home what do you think it will say on real casino tables?
I must tell you that you do keep these threads you are posting on very entertaining, only because you refuse to see what you are writing. If you post random data, what are we to think, but there is no such thing as a DI, that even goes for me. I just get lucky and the casinos see me to often!
With that said, I want to make one comment about your videos, please keep posting the, I love them, they tell the true story, we all are getting lucky when we are on a roll and the casinos have nothing to worry about anybody that sets the dice!

superrick

Why don't you go bet a crap check, champ! After all, your analysis of your own rolls is so precise you can overcome an 11.11% edge. That's amazing!!

@thecesspit thank you.

@odiousgambit I like the idea of possibly beating a 110% Edge...

Quote: nickolay411

My hand will be tired.
Might need a 2 hour break before we go and do that...

200 rolls in a session could tire out all shooters trying to have fun and roll less 7s.
ME showed the probability of rolling 200 times with 30 or less 7s is 30%.
If 30% is a target probability, get creative for the same probability.

at 200 rolls
30 or less 7s
30.07413% prob of success

at 41 rolls
5 or less 7s
30.00009% prob of success

at 21 rolls (I could do this one)
2 or less 7s
29.56193% prob of success
=============================
using 21 rolls and 2 or less 7s
Play max 4 sessions.
at least 2 out of 4 session wins will win the challenge
that probability, for a random shooter, is slightly higher at 34.06%
still an edge of 97.82% at 2:1

or at least 3 out of 4 wins
8.04% if the shooter says this is no sweat, easy money

or
Play max 10 sessions of 21 rolls each
at least 4 session wins rolling 2 or less would win for the shooter. Only have to win 4 sessions of 21 rolls per session
33.87% prob of success for a random shooter
(5 out of 10 would be 14.29% success. A more of a shooter challenge)

Have fun
See you at the movies

Quote: 7craps

200 rolls in a session could tire out all shooters trying to have fun and roll less 7s.

Maybe, but the bet is on. Soopoo is going to insist no doubt.

If it was up to me, though, I'd make a more reasonable offer, like:

"The original bet is on if I don't like any further changes, but for example, I'd agree to make it even odds, but increase the bet size. "

Partly out of the goodness of my heart, but partly out of selfishness. Ever hear of killing the Golden Goose? After losing a 2:1 bet and realizing it was nuts, this goose is going to be belly up in the water.

If it were solely up to me, I would have the challenge be way more rolls, like less than 300 out of 2000, then it would take way more variance to beat me. However, As I know he will average 33.3 7's per 200 rolls, I still have an advantage, although not that much. I appreciate Nikolay making a claim, and being willing to back it up. His posts show no fear! I am still waiting for Nikoloay and Ahigh to select a date and time, as I am an out of towner and did list the limited days I would be available.

It's important to note that 200 rolls can be done in as little as 20 minutes on my table. I have a computerized dealer that updates the state of the game for an unlimited number of virtual players and plot out the chips on the rail for those players interactively and graphically on my 55" display behind the table. With one person to operate the stick and the bluetooth keyboard and using two pair of dice instead of one, the rolls per minute can easily get to 10.

I also have general statistical analysis being updated on each and every throw as the action occurs.

When it's just me on the table and I don't have any help, I can do about 4. A casino generally doesn't go over 2.

It will ultimately be up to the shooter here if he wants to keep it casino paced, or if he can find a groove faster.

My longest rolls were when I was shooting fairly quickly.

I will let the shooter and SOOPOO come up with their best agreed upon dates assuming SOOPOO wants to be here for the challenge and then I will ensure that I can make the preferred dates and clear it all with my woman before we lock it down.

Hey Guys,

Saturday about to head into work... I think I previously said March 11th would be good for me? I was throwing last night and it's definitely tiresome to do 200. I'd like the opportunity to shoot at my own pace (not any slower than casino pace) and not just fire them off as fast as I can. Also im requesting a 5-10 minute break when we reach 100 rolls.

So I'm down March 11th (Monday). Anytime of the day is fine. What time/day of the day is good for you Ahigh?

Thanks,
Nick

edit: Original bets against me for 2:1 stand. I can accept defeat if it so happens that way...

If that day can't work for anyone. I'm also going to be in Vegas March 21st so I can fly in a day early to do the challenge.

So I'm throwing out March 20th as a backup date.

-N

Quote: nickolay411

Hey Guys,

Saturday about to head into work... I think I previously said March 11th would be good for me? I was throwing last night and it's definitely tiresome to do 200. I'd like the opportunity to shoot at my own pace (not any slower than casino pace) and not just fire them off as fast as I can. Also im requesting a 5-10 minute break when we reach 100 rolls.

So I'm down March 11th (Monday). Anytime of the day is fine. What time/day of the day is good for you Ahigh?

Thanks,
Nick

edit: Original bets against me for 2:1 stand. I can accept defeat if it so happens that way...

On March 11th, it would have to be 9:45am to 2:15pm. I would also need to take a day off from work, but I'm pretty sure this is enough notice and a worthy reason to take off given my profession. I would like to add one additional challenge: if there are individuals who would like to add incentive for the shooter to accomplish his goals, consider giving him free bets for other targets.

For example: "I will give you $xxxx if you roll fewer than xx sevens in 200 rolls!"

Please consider that this is a very unlikely bet to pay off and is therefore not very risky, yet it could lead to more exposure to the media.

If I can get the event televised live online, it would be great to have a nice big crowd for a televised event and another event lined up after that.

Any free bets can be sent to me via paypal (PM me). I think people who know me on here will vouch for my trustworthyness, but it would be great to get a visual shot of the cash that could be won by the shooter for various levels of performance.

I will start it off by offering the shooter $1000 if he can roll less than 9 sevens in allotted 200 rolls and an addition $5 if he can simply roll less than 32. This is a tiny cost compared to just doing all the set up and taking off from work. I encourage others to offer him free money to hit his goal too to encourage him. He's already stepped up to the plate to take a swing, so please help me sweeten the pot for any near misses so he can at least have some enjoyment for partial victory in rolling fewer sevens!

SUPER! March 11! Nickolay- I will have a car, if you do not, and can pick you up and take us to the Ahigh Craps Palace, also known as Aaron's home. You can roll as fast or as slow as you feel comfortable. You can take breaks at your discretion. The only limiting factor will be Aaron's schedule. So if it is ok with you, Nickolay, we will meet at Aaron's house at around 10 am. If you need a ride just let me know. I'll be staying at the Rio, as usual.
And, again, thanks to Aaron for his hospitality.

Quote: Ahigh

Please consider that this is a very unlikely bet to pay off and is therefore not very risky, yet it could lead to more exposure to the media.

If I can get the event televised live online, it would be great to have a nice big crowd for a televised event and another event lined up after that.

OK, the question needs to be asked: have you completely lost touch with reality? media coverage? Live, televised, event?

Here is what (probably) is going to happen. Two guys meet up at your house and roll some dice for a few hours, then post about it on the web.

If I am wrong I guess I will watch it on live tv.

I'm pretty excited about it, but I am working on how it will be televised. "Stay tuned."

Quote: sodawater

OK, the question needs to be asked: have you completely lost touch with reality? media coverage? Live, televised, event?

Here is what (probably) is going to happen. Two guys meet up at your house and roll some dice for a few hours, then post about it on the web.

If I am wrong I guess I will watch it on live tv.

Sorry for implying it was over-the-air television. "televised" isn't really a correct description. I think it would be "broadcast live on the internet" in terms of what I am doing. There is a 4-second delay, but you'll be able to "attend" the event remotely making comments and interacting with me, SOOPOO, and the shooter during the event if you so wish.

I will also be available to accept facetime or plain-old-telephone calls if someone wants to interact with us during the event.

My goal, really, is to allow SOOPOO or any other skeptics now and in the future to be able to interact and see what is happening so that there is not so much skepticism that film is just edited and taken the "best of" for presentation.

Here's the URL for where the event will be broadcast.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-ahigh-show

I am not so sure about my percentages any longer, but i recall a random thrower has a .48%
chance of getting a 40 roll in 100 rolls. that means on average it will take almost 225 hands
to get a 40 roll. Does not mean it cant happen, it just means it will be a seldom seen event.

and it is. I had a couple of hour rolls prior to working on dice sitting.That has been 3 years now and
have had 32 4o or better rolls and 5 50 or better rolls. now on average i may play 10 hands a week
if i go on a week ender like the past weekend i had 27 hands. So lets say i average 15 hands a week
over 3 years is 2250 hands in 3 years. A random thrower could expect to get 10 rolls over 40 in
that time.... i have had 37. NOw this is about what you could expect if you increase your srr from
6.0 to about 8.0 It is just the math, you should get about 3 times as many.

Now in the normal game of dice, that means on average you have the potential to get paid on 2
more rolls per hand than a random guy.. that can makle a large difference.


dicesitter

One thing that you see with a Monte Carlo simulator is what does happen randomly. You can ALMOST as easily win in 10,000 events as lose when you are at 10x odds and six points working on the comeout. But you still lose more often.

10,000 events takes a long time.

But for every long roll in a random outcome, you have a lot more quick ones to make up for it. And when you roll aces, ace-deuce, twelve, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 7, you lose a lot of money per roll even though it was a pretty decent roll with fewer than one out of six sevens.

The guys who try to focus on SRR's really like to do across with pressure instead of wizard of odds approaches for this reason.

I personally think that the method that I use is much more complex than any method anyone else is using. And I haven't yet even applied it to the casino, really.

Most of my play in the casino has just been to develop motor skills, and as I have stated, I am not a lifetime winner at this moment, and even if I were, I still could not claim to be overcoming the edge as some others are claiming.

But I hope to get there. I am going to do some live shows where I demonstrate what I am doing in more detail. There is a lot that I have no disclosed about what I am doing. Tupp and Teddy have seen it, and another guy who goes by VegasDiceController (aka VDC) has seen it.

But I am planning to do a live broadcast where I will explain in more detail some of the things that I am doing to try to quantify any edge I can muster up from a theoretically biased throw and test the theory all in the time span of an hour.

@ dicesitter and ahigh...

Do you guys grip like the golden touch guys? I was just wondering because I don't use that grip...

Also I don't favor much backspin like those guys do. If anything I slightly pitch the dice frontward...

Thoughts?

-N

I have to admit that I follow the Golden Touch throw more than anything else. Mostly as a result of me not having any better ideas myself.

I may have more ideas at some time in the future, but hopefully I haven't been wasting my time developing motor skills for that particular throw; it's possible I've been doing it all wrong all these years!

Quote: Ahigh

I have to admit that I follow the Golden Touch throw more than anything else. Mostly as a result of me not having any better ideas myself.

Back when I experimented with dice setting (!) I found the tongs grip most comfortable.

I did the tongs for the first few months. And my girl still does the ice tongs too.

I have to admit it's a little embarrassing that I'm doing the same throw as Golden Touch. I should have my own throw, huh?

LOL.

well there are a number of grips, i use the 3 finger grip because it works best with my hand size.

The number of rotations you want depend on the type of table you are at. 2-4 rotations is fine for a table
with decent bounce, however so many today have a very high degree of bounce. this not only increases
the reaction of the dice to the table top. it also exagerates any flaw in your toss.

I try to use enough back spin that allows my soft shot to get to the back wall. On a small table or a tub
to much spin stops the die and it is called a no throw.

Remember the momentum for the die comes from your back swing, not from pushing the die to the back wall.

I think there are a number of dice controll groups around, i dont see many of them, certainly in Wisconsin
there are none. In my play around the country, i have had a number of bit bosses comment on my toss, and
they most often bring up that Golden touch thing. I dont know, but they appear to be most afraid of one of those
guys, so they must be pretty good. For me i am just an old fart that plays craps.

dicesitter

Yes MrV. That's my grip... :)

Quote: Ahigh

I did the tongs for the first few months. And my girl still does the ice tongs too.

I have to admit it's a little embarrassing that I'm doing the same throw as Golden Touch. I should have my own throw, huh?

LOL.

Tongs for the win... :) But I do think the Golden Touch grip is a really good grip. It aligns your body in a really comfortable position. But to me it encourages backspin like Dicesitter said. Since prefer some of the PARR theory I just dont use it.

i think the next step in the dice control revolution might be to incorporate astrology. which grip is the best to use as a Sagittarius when the moon is in Gemini?

I've done some 3D physics simulations and when I start to add 2+ rotations you create a bigger range of numbers you end up hitting. With a slight forward pitch I found it easier to achieve a single number outcome more frequently...

And yes the computer and a physics engine can replicate the same shot over and over again... The computers the best shooter I know!

Quote: sodawater

i think the next step in the dice control revolution might be to incorporate astrology. which grip is the best to use as a Sagittarius when the moon is in Gemini?

It's occurred to me that I don't know much about you aside from the derogatory things that you say about other people.

Or to paraphrase, the impression I have of you is an impression of a master of mockery.

What, pray tell, is your main accomplishment in life?

Bullying?

Quote: nickolay411

I've done some 3D physics simulations and when I start to add 2+ rotations you create a bigger range of numbers you end up hitting. With a slight forward pitch I found it easier to achieve a single number outcome more frequently...

And yes the computer and a physics engine can replicate the same shot over and over again... The computers the best shooter I know!

I have implemented dice physics in Newton, and you can absolutely make money from a precise computer shot in virtual reality. That much I know from experience.

Quote: Ahigh

It's occurred to me that I don't know much about you aside from the derogatory things that you say about other people.

No, I am saying derogatory things about the concept of magical dice control. whether you choose to take that as a personal insult based on your belief in such nonsense is your own choice.

When claims are made without evidence or a coherent explanation, the world is a worse place overall. The world would be a better place if everyone were a little more skeptical, so we wouldn't have pseudoscience, female circumcision, the anti-vaccination "movement," wars in the name of fake religions, and countless other things that impede human progress due to a lack of skepticism.

your accomplishments?

Quote: sodawater

i think the next step in the dice control revolution might be to incorporate astrology.

Actually, this issue was (not surprisingly?) seriously discussed at John Patrick's board.

thats funny. Cuz I'm a Sagittarius and on March 11th the moon will be Gemini....

Listen I get annoyed by people who believe things that I believe to be false too. But if it makes their life more enjoyable, more power to them.

I actually feel sorry for people who are victims of their own intelligence to the extent that they spend their valuable time just telling other people, "hey you .. yeah you. The dude over there laughing and having a good time. You're stupid!"

It's not the guy being called stupid in my example that I feel bad for.

It's the one who gets annoyed by others who find simple pleasures that the more intelligent guy can't relate to.

I did not ask you to rationalize your behavior.

I just said I didn't know much about you except for it.

So what is your value to society. Maybe that's a better question. Mocking people? Truly?

Quote: nickolay411

thats funny. Cuz I'm a Sagittarius and on March 11th the moon will be Gemini....

haha. spooky!

Quote: nickolay411

I've done some 3D physics simulations and when I start to add 2+ rotations you create a bigger range of numbers you end up hitting. With a slight forward pitch I found it easier to achieve a single number outcome more frequently...

And yes the computer and a physics engine can replicate the same shot over and over again... The computers the best shooter I know!

Nickolay, that's really awesome. It sounds like you're further along in analyzing spin than me. Maybe I can package up what I've done and share it with you. I use Newton Physics, and it has a lot of parameters for materials, I haven't tried to match the felt and rubber back wall in a simulation yet, but that would be awesome, and I'm more motivated to do it if there's someone else who has the skills to collaborate on that.

I did find with Newton that instead of making smaller cubes, I just run the simulation more steps per unit time simulated to effectively increase gravity (the only constant that implies size). I get much better results that way.

What physics engine are you using?

Ahigh, I'm not sure I can offer any skills with Newton as I've never used it. Currently I'm using Nvidia's Physx simulator. It's predominantly used in the development of games.

As far as materials go. I have to manually dial in values such as restitution, kinetic/dynamic friction and static friction. Everything I simulate is at world scale.

And as far as any findings... Well, I'm still at the beginnings of my research and I can't spout random stuff I haven't tested much of.


-N

I just moved the PC downstairs and I have an image of the craps table being broadcast as of 7:31 Pacific Time.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-ahigh-show

Quote: sodawater

i think the next step in the dice control revolution might be to incorporate astrology. which grip is the best to use as a Sagittarius when the moon is in Gemini?

At long last, an intelligent response on dice setting. Well done, sir !

I recorded 200 rolls tonight, and rolled only 29 sevens.



I didn't record the rolls, but I was broadcasting and trying to debug my broadcasting system to work out the bugs. Thanks to those who gave me feedback to help me during the broadcast.

# NOTE: this contains data loaded from files
# rdata/aaron/aaron_sr1_2013-01-21-0811pm.txt
# Rolls
s 4242
a 23`33`63`64`64`42`43`63`65`65`51`64`53`42`43`63`54`31`62`42`55`41`21`41`22`54`33`51`66`51
a 42`61`43`22`22`21`66`53`52`32`54`43`43`64`42`61`42`63`63`51`62`66`61`22`23`21`63`41`64`51
a 11`44`61`33`54`44`52`65`64`52`41`54`64`53`31`42`65`52`65`23`51`22`42`41`21`51`53`51`62`42
a 33`64`41`44`42`31`51`43`21`22`33`62`42`41`42`23`52`21`53`54`41`21`44`21`54`52`42`51`21`66
a 21`43`64`43`55`23`66`51`42`23`22`52`65`31`64`41`44`52`54`41`65`12`61`43`55`21`12`64`62`52
a 42`63`66`64`31`63`53`63`65`64`33`53`61`41`22`12`23`61`66`41`41`52`53`23`63`62`54`44`41`12
a 54`43`51`42`55`22`65`41`52`53`62`52`62`22`66`12`31`65`64`62

Total rolls: 200
1) 58 14.50% - 16.67 = (-2.17)-------------------------------------------- 1
2) 82 20.50% - 16.67 = (+3.83)-------------------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 56 14.00% - 16.67 = (-2.67)------------------------------------------ 3
4) 77 19.25% - 16.67 = (+2.58)---------------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 61 15.25% - 16.67 = (-1.42)---------------------------------------------- 5
6) 66 16.50% - 16.67 = (-0.17)-------------------------------------------------- 6

11: -- 2
21: ---------------- 3
22: -------------------- 4
31: ------ 4
32: --------- 5
41: --------------- 5
33: ------------ 6
42: ---------------- 6
51: ------------ 6
61: ------- 7
52: ------------ 7
43: ---------- 7
53: --------- 8
44: ------------ 8
62: --------- 8
63: ---------- 9
54: ---------- 9
55: -------- 10
64: -------------- 10
65: ---------- 11
66: ---------------- 12

2) 1 0.50% - 2.78% = -2.28% (-4.56)-- 2
3) 16 8.00% - 5.56% = 2.44% (+4.89)------------------------- 3
4) 16 8.00% - 8.33% = -0.33% (-0.67)------------------------- 4
5) 24 12.00% - 11.11% = 0.89% (+1.78)------------------------------------ 5
6) 34 17.00% - 13.89% = 3.11% (+6.22)--------------------------------------------------- 6
7) 29 14.50% - 16.67% = -2.17% (-4.33)-------------------------------------------- 7
8) 24 12.00% - 13.89% = -1.89% (-3.78)------------------------------------ 8
9) 20 10.00% - 11.11% = -1.11% (-2.22)------------------------------ 9
10) 18 9.00% - 8.33% = 0.67% (+1.33)----------------------------10
11) 10 5.00% - 5.56% = -0.56% (-1.11)----------------11
12) 8 4.00% - 2.78% = 1.22% (+2.44)------------12

Total sevens 29 - Seven outs 20 (68.97%) - Seven winners 9 (31.03%)
Pairs 35 17.50% - 16.67% = 0.83% (+1.67 rolls)
Hards 26 13.00% - 11.11% = 1.89% (+3.78 rolls)
HiLos 9 4.50% - 5.56% = -1.06% (-2.11 rolls)
H2 1/0 ( 0.50% - 2.78% = -4.56)
H4 10/3 ( 5.00% - 2.78% = +4.44)
H6 6/1 ( 3.00% - 2.78% = +0.44)
H8 6/0 ( 3.00% - 2.78% = +0.44)
H10 4/3 ( 2.00% - 2.78% = -1.56)
H12 8/3 ( 4.00% - 2.78% = +2.44)

Interesting to compare these 200 rolls to the previous 174 roll session from the 13th.



23`13`44`12`62`51`54`21`43`63`64`32`63`22`43`54`65`23`43`53`54`22`64`42`22`63`51`33`52`54
62`33`52`64`21`65`65`53`53`41`22`65`62`62`63`42`62`22`61`33`65`43`44`33`32`52`53`43`32`61
63`65`31`62`32`54`65`41`63`62`32`61`54`23`41`53`65`54`63`62`65`23`21`66`31`62`31`22`54`21
21`43`53`23`55`52`52`62`42`63`63`63`21`51`53`51`66`23`63`41`44`23`42`44`43`63`63`41`61`64
23`51`63`53`41`63`41`55`21`42`66`52`42`43`23`62`41`61`63`22`52`21`44`63`51`62`23`61`62`43
61`62`51`51`21`53`43`23`23`66`62`53`64`61`52`51`54`62`53`42`43`63`55`52
Total rolls: 174
1) 39 11.21% - 16.67 = (-5.46)---------------------------------- 1
2) 73 20.98% - 16.67 = (+4.31)--------------------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 69 19.83% - 16.67 = (+3.16)------------------------------------------------------------ 3
4) 50 14.37% - 16.67 = (-2.30)-------------------------------------------- 4
5) 53 15.23% - 16.67 = (-1.44)---------------------------------------------- 5
6) 64 18.39% - 16.67 = (+1.72)-------------------------------------------------------- 6

11: 2
21: ---------- 3
22: -------------- 4
31: ---- 4
32: ----------------- 5
41: -------- 5
33: -------- 6
42: ------- 6
51: --------- 6
61: -------- 7
52: --------- 7
43: ----------- 7
53: ----------- 8
44: ---------- 8
62: ---------------- 8
63: ------------------ 9
54: --------- 9
55: ------ 10
64: ----- 10
65: --------- 11
66: -------- 12

2) 0 0.00% - 2.78% = -2.78% (-4.83) 2
3) 10 5.75% - 5.56% = 0.19% (+0.33)---------- 3
4) 11 6.32% - 8.33% = -2.01% (-3.50)----------- 4
5) 25 14.37% - 11.11% = 3.26% (+5.67)------------------------- 5
6) 20 11.49% - 13.89% = -2.39% (-4.17)-------------------- 6
7) 28 16.09% - 16.67% = -0.57% (-1.00)---------------------------- 7
8) 32 18.39% - 13.89% = 4.50% (+7.83)-------------------------------- 8
9) 27 15.52% - 11.11% = 4.41% (+7.67)--------------------------- 9
10) 8 4.60% - 8.33% = -3.74% (-6.50)--------10
11) 9 5.17% - 5.56% = -0.38% (-0.67)---------11
12) 4 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.48% (-0.83)----12

Total sevens 28 - Seven outs 20 (71.43%) - Seven winners 8 (28.57%)
Pairs 23 13.22% - 16.67% = -3.45% (-6.00 rolls)
Hards 19 10.92% - 11.11% = -0.19% (-0.33 rolls)
HiLos 4 2.30% - 5.56% = -3.26% (-5.67 rolls)
H2 0/0 ( 0.00% - 2.78% = -4.83)
H4 7/1 ( 4.02% - 2.78% = +2.17)
H6 4/1 ( 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.83)
H8 5/3 ( 2.87% - 2.78% = +0.17)
H10 3/0 ( 1.72% - 2.78% = -1.83)
H12 4/1 ( 2.30% - 2.78% = -0.83)

It's interesting to know that Teddy's betting strategy is the purple line in these charts.

Here's the chart for all of my recorded rolls with 10x odds on a $5 table (these are odds off for the comeout FWIW) and the across bet in there as well.

if your going to do this get smart craps, it is your best model to manage your
throws and if you are honest and record all of them, and if you use the same
set. it will not only tell you if you have an advantage over the table, but what that is
and what sets to use.

A test of 200 rolls here and there does not mean anything... it has to be long term.

when you see you have a very real advantage, then go play, and play to that
advantage. if you have an advantage over the 6 & 8 bet that, dont bet $50
on the inside crap and a $6 6 and 8..

Be specific..... you find a good advantage you may want to use the 3 v set which
zeroes in on the 6 & 8... even short rolls of 7-12 can produce very good results
when you bet $90 6 & 8 and hit them an average of 3 times per hand in combination.

You cant just screw around with this, making money as a dice sitter is hard and you
need to be good. The casino's are full of people that bet crazy and lose a ton thinking they
are dice sitters and have an advantage...

dicesitter

Quote: dicesitter

if your going to do this get smart craps, it is your best model to manage your
throws and if you are honest and record all of them, and if you use the same
set. it will not only tell you if you have an advantage over the table, but what that is
and what sets to use.

My software does that. I am using 100% my own software. My software runs on OS/X and on Windows.

I absolutely don't cheat myself by failing to record data based on whether I like it or not.

My first 1400 rolls were with a 6262 set, and now I use a 4242 set. My software recommended the 4242 set.

If you look at the charts there is beginning to be evidence that the switch to the 4242 set was a good one.

There are stretches of rolls that really suck though!!

I still have some improvements to make, but basically my software knows what set I used for every roll recorded and tells you what set you should be using and/or more ideally that you are already using the set that matches your theoretical bias.

I have not yet implemented the details to put roll data into two buckets (comeout versus non-comeout) and analyze separately the set to use for comeout versus non-comeout rolls assuming that you are off on the comeout. Currently my software is probably set up to be working on the comeout and always throw to avoid sevens at all times. But I generally do gun for sevens and put out big come bets to destroy others on the table while I win since I like to have an empty table and I like not to get so much heat. In addition, when I am in the casino, I don't bet a lot of odds. I have a very crazy way of betting that drives people nuts, and I generally like the way I play.

Dodging the red is one way to throw the dice, and gunning for the red is another. But I currently use the same set. I will gun for a six or an eight on the comeout when I have working bets, otherwise I gun for the sevens and yos and do bigger come bets than most people.

Teddy has seen a lot of my crazy betting patterns in the casino, but don't think that I bet like this chart shows. I don't like this kind of volatility myself and prefer to do a more targeted approach when it's my money out there. I don't even have my betting strategies coded up because they are pretty random looking to most people watching.

what happened to the discussion about grips? Now that's a discussion worth having.

The grip will help determine what will happen to the dice when you release them. The tongs offer perhaps the least control because as you release your fingers the dice tend to separate.

The three finger front grip is preferred because it gives you a greater chance of keeping the dice on axis and relatively close to each other.

The two finger front grip doesnt have as much control but for those with large fingers it may be the most practical.

But no one mentioned dice stacking which is the ultimate in a controlling grip, why?

Ahigh I would love to see some video of the grip you use and the dice coming off your fingers for the first foot or so. That slow motion video would be priceless for helping us to understand your claims. Can you provide such video clips??