dice control
Quote: MrV100 attempts does not seem to be enough to yield probative results.
It is not my intention that a challenge be 100 attempts. I just want an 'influencer' to make a claim, and how many successes they can accomplish is easily stated per 100 attempts. If they say they can decrease 7's from 16.67 to 16.64 per hundred I won't waste my time, as the number of rolls needed to prove anything would be far too great. But most of the claims I have seen are easily disprovable in the low hundreds of rolls, with greater than 95% certitude.
Quote: MrV100 attempts does not seem to be enough to yield probative results.
Most claims might not be provable in a low number of rolls, but are bets that would be in heavily in one sides favour if true and heavily in the other if just random. The sort of edges that the roller would be happy to take to the casino.
You seem to want everybody to know that you make a lot of money and can afford to gamble, you made that statement when you lost your bankroll. So I never heard you say that you rathole chips when your at the table, you want the casinos to know that you walked out a winner, right?
Well if you really want to prove anything, please just print out your win/loss statement.
That will tell the real story, as to what you do everyday at the Silverton Casino.
It's not like everybody doesn't already know you, you have posted your face all over the internet, so every casino in the world can see who you are, also every crook, that might just decide to stick-up the winner as he is walking out of the Silverton Casino at lunch time!
Quote: superrick
It's not like everybody doesn't already know you, you have posted your face all over the internet, so every casino in the world can see who you are, also every crook, that might just decide to stick-up the winner as he is walking out of the Silverton Casino at lunch time!
GOLD!
Thanks for pointing out what is obvious to me: I am not hiding anything.
It's unfortunate, though, that even if I had $100,000 in winnings to show, it would not prove anything at all.
I did rathole a bunch of red chips a couple at a time when I was saving the new red chips they made up. I showed up with $1,500 worth of all those red chips at once in three racks and I put them all on the rail.
I do rathole winnings, but not enough to say I came out way ahead, and definitely not enough for anyone to notice it. In general I only do this for small value chips ($5 or less) that I just think are so nice I would rather keep them myself for the time being.
Not sure how this discussion became another "let's pick on Ahigh" thread, but how is this for a coherent claim:Quote: SOOPOOI stand by my original offer to ALL dice controllers....
make a coherent claim about what you can do, and i will bet you cannot do it....
Aaron has been unable to make a coherent claim.....
A coherent claim might be something like this.... I'll give examples...
1. I can roll fewer than 15 sevens out of 100 rolls consistently....
2. I can roll 20 or more doubles out of 100 rolls consistently....
3. I can hit a 6 or 8 at least 30 out of 100 tries consistently...
"A good dice influencer can roll 15 or fewer sevens out of 100 rolls consistently."
That is more than a 6% reduction in the expected number of sevens -- probably a big enough margin to overcome the house edge of 0.184% in the case of 10x odds come bets. It is all the margin one needs to win at the casino in the long run.
How about that for a coherent claim?
As I recall, someone later in that thread tried it and reported that it wasn't very difficult. Furthermore, in Ahigh's video, he appeared to hit it on his third or fourth attempt.Quote: SOOPOOMy last challenge was just to show how freaking hard it is to land the dice on the same spot on the table, let alone have it have the same velocity, spin, arc, etc...
By the way, I would like to point out that no one who asserts the possibility dice influencing has stated that every throw has to be perfect -- merely avoiding one expected seven out of 100 throws is more than enough to overcome the house edge.
I don't ever recall Aaron claiming to be a DI.Quote: SOOPOOAaron, or any 'DI"... make a claim about your abilities that exceed what a random roller can do that I can understand, and I'll bet you cannot do it.
I am not a DI, but I would wager on my claim above, if we could find a good, willing DI.
Except, in all the recorded/monitored dice influencing trials, the variance never seems to go against the shooter -- it is either with the shooter or slightly better than the "expected" math.Quote: IbeatyouracesRight. Short term variance means nothing. Thats all these people rely on. No different then some blackjack player that doubles on a hard 12 ten times in a row and wins all ten. He'll now believe its the "right play" and it works. 100, 222, 1000 rolls, etc. mean NOTHING!
That positive "bias" says a lot. I might bet more at the casino if I knew that the variance would rarely go against me.
I just recorded 180 or so the other night. It started out horribly, but ended with a profit.
Even if I get to 10,000 rolls with 14.xx% sevens I don't think it will convince anyone who isn't already convinced that it might be possible.
I've been at this for years already, been open and public about everything that I am doing, and only even taking the position that it might be possible against those who claim that they KNOW it is impossible.
I think those with the false knowledge that it's impossible are the remarkably unusual folks myself.
You should at least be open to the fact that it might be possible, IMO.
Quote: tuppNot sure how this discussion became another "let's pick on Ahigh" thread, but how is this for a coherent claim:
"A good dice influencer can roll 15 or fewer sevens out of 100 rolls consistently."
How about that for a coherent claim?
THANK YOU!
So now I can make a bet offer. 15 OR FEWER consistently! So at WORST 15 consistently!
So 150 out of 1000 would be the WORST .... I'll bet $1000 you cant find a guy to roll 150 or fewer 7's in 1000 rolls. Pay me double if he can't roll fewer than 160. Find a fool who thinks they can do it! Casino rules.... dice in air and must hit back of table... I'll bet if anyone says they can do it that Aaron would be kind enough to host the event!
That would put you in the top 1%.
If you are recording 240 or less 7s in 1600 rolls (15%) that is putting you in the top 3.8%.
Quote: boymimboRandom roller's odds of throwing 150 or less 7s of 1000 is 8.4%
I'll take that chance. Since I know there is no such thing as a dice influencer, as the Wizard would say, it is a good bet for me. Of course I may lose, it seems, 8.4% of the time!
Nope.Quote: SOOPOOSo 150 out of 1000 would be the WORST .... I'll bet $1000 you cant find a guy to roll 150 or fewer 7's in 1000 rolls.
We are not betting on whether or not we can find a DI -- we have a bet IF we can find a DI.
Also, no more than 100 or 200 rolls in a single session, and it might not be easy getting a DI to shoot for more than one session (if we can find one at all).
In addition, I don't have $1000 to bet, but I'll wager $100.
No. Let's stick to the original "coherent" statement.Quote:Pay me double if he can't roll fewer than 160.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/5411-has-anyone-ever-seen-a-real-study-on-dice-control/18/#post188271
Quote: IbeatyouracesThat means about the same as someone who gets 500 blackjacks out of 10,000 hands. Still means nothing.
Naw. The odds of getting 500 or more blackjacks in 10K hands is about 20%. Doesn't mean anything. The odds of getting 600 or more blackjacks in 10000 hands on the other hand is about .0000000542, very signficant.
Quote: tuppNope.
We are not betting on whether or not we can find a DI -- we have a bet IF we can find a DI.
Also, no more than 100 or 200 rolls in a single session, and it might not be easy getting a DI to shoot for more than one session (if we can find one at all).
In addition, I don't have $1000 to bet, but I'll wager $100.
No. Let's stick to the original "coherent" statement.
Sure tupp... But I can't find a DI, you will have to. I know there is no such person, but if you find someone who you will say is one..... I'll go $100 that you can't find a guy who can do less than 30 in 200 spins. Probably 30% chance a random shooter can do that, but I'll take the chance.........
I have the equipment to do this. But it would be a piece of cake for me to roll 200 rolls with fewer than 30 sevens in there if I could make as many attempts as I want.
That's why you would need some way to do these online challenges. I'm willing to donate my setup and gear to perform live for online for people willing to take these bets.
I've got an Avermedia Gamer Live HD that is designed to take 1080P video and broadcast it live for video game performances online.
It can be used for this kind of thing.
Being able to do a live broadcast where interactivity is possible between the performance by the people placing the bets I think is critical to placing a fair bet on this kind of thing.
That would also take care of the travelling and other problems to do this sort of thing for people who don't live in Vegas.
Of course if you want to be a test-rat for demonstrating your throwing abilities, you have to show up here to put on a show.
http://www.xsplit.com/
I'd like to volunteer to shoot.
I don't post much...But I do enjoy reading everything you guys write. Anyway here's my story... I'm a Animator/VFX artist I live and work in LA. I don't have a big bankroll what so ever... I go to Vegas maybe once every 2 months. I do well enough to continue to play the game and usually come out ahead. Craps is a hobby to me not a full time job! (Animation/VFX > Craps) I don't think I could play craps everyday in the casino to make a living off of it because it's not really my true passion. But I do influence the dice. I am willing to wager 250 and pay you 2 to 1 if I can't achieve 30 or less Sevens in 200 rolls. I don't know if that amount of wager is worth it to you SOOPOO. But I'm game to show up to Ahigh's place and do this live broadcast.
Btw I was just at Caesers this past Monday night and as I was rolling someone said the name Alan Mendelson that sounded familiar but I didn't pay any mind to it. Were you there Alan?
Let's put this in motion if everyone is agreement. Only the shooter needs to be here.
I have all the equipment ready to go for a live challenge/broadcast and to get the whole thing on tape.
Quote: AhighI like the idea of not being the subject of controlling the dice. So this works for me. Also having an Animation/GFX guy can relate to all the technical aspects.
Let's put this in motion if everyone is agreement. Only the shooter needs to be here.
I have all the equipment ready to go for a live challenge/broadcast and to get the whole thing on tape.
but ahigh, if you've never met this animation guy, why do you believe he can control the dice?
you might find it beneficial to up your level of skepticism in all areas.
Quote: nickolay411Howdy,
I'd like to volunteer to shoot.
I don't post much...But I do enjoy reading everything you guys write. Anyway here's my story... I'm a Animator/VFX artist I live and work in LA. I don't have a big bankroll what so ever... I go to Vegas maybe once every 2 months. I do well enough to continue to play the game and usually come out ahead. Craps is a hobby to me not a full time job! (Animation/VFX > Craps) I don't think I could play craps everyday in the casino to make a living off of it because it's not really my true passion. But I do influence the dice. I am willing to wager 250 and pay you 2 to 1 if I can't achieve 30 or less Sevens in 200 rolls. I don't know if that amount of wager is worth it to you SOOPOO. But I'm game to show up to Ahigh's place and do this live broadcast.
Btw I was just at Caesers this past Monday night and as I was rolling someone said the name Alan Mendelson that sounded familiar but I didn't pay any mind to it. Were you there Alan?
You are on! I am available any time on March 11, 12, or 13. So just to be clear.....
You will roll 200 times. All rolls will be tossed in the air, and will hit the back wall. Any roll that does not will be called a no roll.
I will put up $125. You will put up $250. If you roll 30 or fewer 7's you win. Any amount of wager is worth it to me.
As the expected number of 7's is 33.3, I am surmising a random roller would succeed around a third of the time.
I will be rooting for you to beat me! Then we can go and take down Vegas after!
Aaron, will you provide the make-up artist or will I have to bring my own for the shoot?
Quote: nickolay411Thats true. Maybe next time im Vegas Ahigh and I can meet up before he takes up the offer. He should be very skeptical! :P
Ahigh is not putting up the money..... He is just kindly letting us use his pre-existing craps palace!
Quote: SOOPOOYou are on! I am available any time on March 11, 12, or 13. So just to be clear.....
You will roll 200 times. All rolls will be tossed in the air, and will hit the back wall. Any roll that does not will be called a no roll.
I will put up $125. You will put up $250. If you roll 30 or fewer 7's you win. Any amount of wager is worth it to me.
As the expected number of 7's is 33.3, I am surmising a random roller would succeed around a third of the time.
It's almost exactly 30% under the assumption of uniform die faces. You win 2 units 70% of the time, he wins 1 unit 30% of the time, so you have roughly a 110% edge if the dice are unbiased.
Quote: SOOPOO
I will be rooting for you to beat me! Then we can go and take down Vegas after!
Smartest comment I have ever read on the forum!
Quote: MathExtremistIt's almost exactly 30% under the assumption of uniform die faces. You win 2 units 70% of the time, he wins 1 unit 30% of the time, so you have roughly a 110% edge if the dice are unbiased.
Your assumption also assumes he has no ability to control the dice! Nikolay will disagree, and is willing to put his money where his mouth is!
Thanks for the mathematical analysis, MathExtremist.
Regardless of outcome, this is going to be fun!
Quote: MathExtremistif the dice are unbiased.
SOOPOO,
what measures will you be taking to ensure fair dice?
Quote: sodawaterSOOPOO,
what measures will you be taking to ensure fair dice?
I will trust Aaron.
(he told me they would be made of tungsten........ just teasing)
I am a freelancer and I get paid between 50 and 75 an hour. And I enjoy my job... So that leaves DC to be a hobby. Thanks though.
Quote: nickolay411sodawater I'll take that bet. That's probably the last bet I take for now... As we get closer I'll ask anyone else if they want in.
booked. paypal ok?
Cheers,
Nick
Quote: nickolay411Yea i figured we'd do paypal.
sounds good. good luck
Just getting people involved is all I am looking for, and to have a good time.
