AI and Card Counting

We have more important stuff to discuss.

Quote: aceside

We have more important stuff to discuss.
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like what

Like facial recognition and AI technology in casinos.

Quote: toolyp

Quote: aceside

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: aceside

Well, in theory, every shoe game is beatable. However, no in practice. Tell us, what bet spread is needed to beat an 8-deck blackjack 6/8-cut game of nowadays?

I am more interested in people discussing Kelly fraction.
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Well if you can Wong in then no spread is needed but otherwise I think a16-1 would do it. I don’t have software handy and I haven’t counted for many years.
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I just simulated this example. Here is what I found. Assuming a counter playing heads-up with the dealer, he will make about $20 an hour using a Hi-Lo computer with a bet spread of $25/$50/$100/$200/$400 at true count from 0 to +4.
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So your betting ramp is TCx2. I did also TCx4 in wizards app cos min bet was unreally low $5. You can try 25(TC<=0);100(TC+1);200(TC+2);400(TC+3);800(TC+4) etc. No big deal, it’s free. and its easy to take a screenshot and post it here. Why is everybody afraid to post screenshots with a free app? you lose nothing. Forget about wong, you lose yor seat in a hurry.
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Why is everybody still AFRAID to post screenshots with a free app? A photo is worth a thousand words.

Makes me believe they dont even play blackjack. Wizards app is the easiest to use and very accurate. it beats all card counters combined, it makes no mistake. A screenshot is also very easy to take with Windows snipping tool.

They only talk the talk. Refer to books and authors who also only talk the talk. Yup Don Schlesinger’s book is only talk the talk. he never played blackjack.

Just pick your counting system and discuss it accompanied by a screenshot or two. play as much as you can play in a casino live. play 500 hands if you can sit that long without a bathroom break. but come back with a screenshot.

A screenshot is meaningless. If 100 players do the experiment, 50 of them will win and the other 50 of them will lose.

Quote: aceside

A screenshot is meaningless. If 100 players do the experiment, 50 of them will win and the other 50 of them will lose.
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Exactly. but dont tell that to norm or don – theyll whack you… or they already did? 100% of counters win in the long run 100% guaranteed they say… if the counters live to that point.

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.

Quote: billryan

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.
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“After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.”
Think again Bill CBS! even for millions of hands you’ll see around 50-50 winners-losers for counters. Probably more losers because of bankroll limitations. many players meet ruin at millions of hands. Norm repeated in his popular forum that validation of a blackjack system requires hundreds of billions of hands. Don approved of. methinks they said gazillions cos nobody can test it on any computer. Players simmed for millions and there were many losers. nobody has yet tested for gazillions but it’s the same difference. good thing you dont play blackjack. stick with sportbetting.

.
the title of your thread references AI - here's what google AI says about this issue -

note - these are estimates - the bet spread, the rules the no. of decks, and how the counter plays (as in leaving the table if the count is very negative) will have an effect on this

" AI Overview

An effective card counter will be ahead approximately 59% to 61% of the time after playing 5,000 hands.

Visualizing the "Long Run"To understand how many hands it takes to truly outrun bad luck, professional players track a metric called N₀ (N-Zero). N₀ represents the number of hands required for a player's expected value (EV) to equal exactly one standard deviation. At this point, the probability of being in the negative drops significantly. For most standard shoe games, N₀ sits between 25,000 and 50,000 hands.

Hands Played
Probability of Being Ahead
Status of Variance

(1 hour) ~51% pure luck / coin flip

5,000 (~50 hours)~60% - heavy statistical noise

25,000 (~250 hours)~84% - edge begins to overcome luck

100,000 (~1,000 hours)~99% - the true "long run"


note - I tried to post the exact link but couldn't - but if you put this into google search you will get the same or a very similar answer

"how often will a player who effectively count cards at blackjack be ahead after 5,000 hands"


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Quote: toolyp

Quote: billryan

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.
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“After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.”
Think again Bill CBS! even for millions of hands you’ll see around 50-50 winners-losers for counters. Probably more losers because of bankroll limitations. many players meet ruin at millions of hands. Norm repeated in his popular forum that validation of a blackjack system requires hundreds of billions of hands. Don approved of. methinks they said gazillions cos nobody can test it on any computer. Players simmed for millions and there were many losers. nobody has yet tested for gazillions but it’s the same difference. good thing you dont play blackjack. stick with sportbetting.
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You are mistaken, but that is okay. Hopefully, you take your own advice and avoid the BJ tables.