AI and Card Counting

We have more important stuff to discuss.

Quote: aceside

We have more important stuff to discuss.
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like what

Like facial recognition and AI technology in casinos.

Quote: toolyp

Quote: aceside

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: aceside

Well, in theory, every shoe game is beatable. However, no in practice. Tell us, what bet spread is needed to beat an 8-deck blackjack 6/8-cut game of nowadays?

I am more interested in people discussing Kelly fraction.
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Well if you can Wong in then no spread is needed but otherwise I think a16-1 would do it. I don’t have software handy and I haven’t counted for many years.
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I just simulated this example. Here is what I found. Assuming a counter playing heads-up with the dealer, he will make about $20 an hour using a Hi-Lo computer with a bet spread of $25/$50/$100/$200/$400 at true count from 0 to +4.
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So your betting ramp is TCx2. I did also TCx4 in wizards app cos min bet was unreally low $5. You can try 25(TC<=0);100(TC+1);200(TC+2);400(TC+3);800(TC+4) etc. No big deal, it’s free. and its easy to take a screenshot and post it here. Why is everybody afraid to post screenshots with a free app? you lose nothing. Forget about wong, you lose yor seat in a hurry.
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Why is everybody still AFRAID to post screenshots with a free app? A photo is worth a thousand words.

Makes me believe they dont even play blackjack. Wizards app is the easiest to use and very accurate. it beats all card counters combined, it makes no mistake. A screenshot is also very easy to take with Windows snipping tool.

They only talk the talk. Refer to books and authors who also only talk the talk. Yup Don Schlesinger’s book is only talk the talk. he never played blackjack.

Just pick your counting system and discuss it accompanied by a screenshot or two. play as much as you can play in a casino live. play 500 hands if you can sit that long without a bathroom break. but come back with a screenshot.

A screenshot is meaningless. If 100 players do the experiment, 50 of them will win and the other 50 of them will lose.

Quote: aceside

A screenshot is meaningless. If 100 players do the experiment, 50 of them will win and the other 50 of them will lose.
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Exactly. but dont tell that to norm or don – theyll whack you… or they already did? 100% of counters win in the long run 100% guaranteed they say… if the counters live to that point.

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.

Quote: billryan

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.
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“After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.”
Think again Bill CBS! even for millions of hands you’ll see around 50-50 winners-losers for counters. Probably more losers because of bankroll limitations. many players meet ruin at millions of hands. Norm repeated in his popular forum that validation of a blackjack system requires hundreds of billions of hands. Don approved of. methinks they said gazillions cos nobody can test it on any computer. Players simmed for millions and there were many losers. nobody has yet tested for gazillions but it’s the same difference. good thing you dont play blackjack. stick with sportbetting.

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the title of your thread references AI - here's what google AI says about this issue -

note - these are estimates - the bet spread, the rules the no. of decks, and how the counter plays (as in leaving the table if the count is very negative) will have an effect on this

" AI Overview

An effective card counter will be ahead approximately 59% to 61% of the time after playing 5,000 hands.

Visualizing the "Long Run"To understand how many hands it takes to truly outrun bad luck, professional players track a metric called N₀ (N-Zero). N₀ represents the number of hands required for a player's expected value (EV) to equal exactly one standard deviation. At this point, the probability of being in the negative drops significantly. For most standard shoe games, N₀ sits between 25,000 and 50,000 hands.

Hands Played
Probability of Being Ahead
Status of Variance

(1 hour) ~51% pure luck / coin flip

5,000 (~50 hours)~60% - heavy statistical noise

25,000 (~250 hours)~84% - edge begins to overcome luck

100,000 (~1,000 hours)~99% - the true "long run"


note - I tried to post the exact link but couldn't - but if you put this into google search you will get the same or a very similar answer

"how often will a player who effectively count cards at blackjack be ahead after 5,000 hands"


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Quote: toolyp

Quote: billryan

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.
link to original post

“After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.”
Think again Bill CBS! even for millions of hands you’ll see around 50-50 winners-losers for counters. Probably more losers because of bankroll limitations. many players meet ruin at millions of hands. Norm repeated in his popular forum that validation of a blackjack system requires hundreds of billions of hands. Don approved of. methinks they said gazillions cos nobody can test it on any computer. Players simmed for millions and there were many losers. nobody has yet tested for gazillions but it’s the same difference. good thing you dont play blackjack. stick with sportbetting.
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You are mistaken, but that is okay. Hopefully, you take your own advice and avoid the BJ tables.

Quote: billryan

Quote: toolyp

Quote: billryan

In what world is 500 hands the long run? I'd guesstimate the chances of being ahead after 500 hands at roughly 50-50. After 5000 hands, it might be 55-45. After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.
link to original post

“After 50,000 hands or roughly 1,000 hours of play, it is extremely unlikely that a counter would not be ahead.”
Think again Bill CBS! even for millions of hands you’ll see around 50-50 winners-losers for counters. Probably more losers because of bankroll limitations. many players meet ruin at millions of hands. Norm repeated in his popular forum that validation of a blackjack system requires hundreds of billions of hands. Don approved of. methinks they said gazillions cos nobody can test it on any computer. Players simmed for millions and there were many losers. nobody has yet tested for gazillions but it’s the same difference. good thing you dont play blackjack. stick with sportbetting.
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You are mistaken, but that is okay. Hopefully, you take your own advice and avoid the BJ tables.
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Bill, you mean "mistaken” regards you and CBS? as for blackjack look no further than me screenshots in a couple of threads here. a pic is worth a thousand words, right? show us your screenshots. they are very loyal to bj skills and the pics cannot be faked. forget abou photoshopping. but you can try even one of those. so put your $ where your mouth is.

till then, forget about those elucubrations. after 50000 hands, half of them counters will lose, less than half will win. there are more losers because of insufficient players bankrolls. the most infamous case is described by Kenny Uston. a loss of $150000 in a short time in the 1980s. that bankroll loss would knock out 99% of all counters in any decade.

Quote: toolyp

there are more losers because of insufficient players bankrolls.
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(heavily truncated)

If you're overbetting the bankroll, you are not executing an advantage play - you are straight gambling.

Quote: lilredrooster

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the title of your thread references AI - here's what google AI says about this issue -

note - these are estimates - the bet spread, the rules the no. of decks, and how the counter plays (as in leaving the table if the count is very negative) will have an effect on this

" AI Overview

An effective card counter will be ahead approximately 59% to 61% of the time after playing 5,000 hands.

Visualizing the "Long Run"To understand how many hands it takes to truly outrun bad luck, professional players track a metric called N₀ (N-Zero). N₀ represents the number of hands required for a player's expected value (EV) to equal exactly one standard deviation. At this point, the probability of being in the negative drops significantly. For most standard shoe games, N₀ sits between 25,000 and 50,000 hands.

Hands Played
Probability of Being Ahead
Status of Variance

(1 hour) ~51% pure luck / coin flip

5,000 (~50 hours)~60% - heavy statistical noise

25,000 (~250 hours)~84% - edge begins to overcome luck

100,000 (~1,000 hours)~99% - the true "long run"


note - I tried to post the exact link but couldn't - but if you put this into google search you will get the same or a very similar answer

"how often will a player who effectively count cards at blackjack be ahead after 5,000 hands"


.
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Read also my replies to Bill Ryan (methinks he worked for CBSsports). there is no maths in that AI mumbojumbo you posted. There is absolutely no relation to card counting, indeed to blackjack. Don repeated in Norms popular forum that there is NO maths in counting cards. He said that only sims can verify or invalidate a system. and Don used to teach mathematics! that AI mumbojumbo looks like refers to normal probability. likey an event occurs at least once in 99.7% of all tries or within 3 standard deviations. absolutely no relation to counting EV.

Many bj apps show again and again that around half of counters win, half of them lose. a few more losers are likely because of bankroll limitations and automatic increase of bet. regardless of number of hands played or simulated and number of counters players. It’s the same ratio for 100,00 hands, 1 million, 100 million, 1 billion etc. Im sure now all these counting guys who sell books, software and systems claimed .5% or 1% or max 2% counting gain based on sims. they've always said that cos they chose only the sims that made their point. They always disregard the sims that contradict their positions.

When all this fire started the computers couldnt test millions of blackjack hands. so many would-be counters took it for granted cos they couldnt do real testing. the computers became more and more powerful and the sellers or authors of counting systems and software raised the sim bar to hundreds of millions and recently to hundreds of billions. tomoz theyll raise the sim bar to 1 trillion hands to validate a card counting system.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: toolyp

there are more losers because of insufficient players bankrolls.
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(heavily truncated)

If you're overbetting the bankroll, you are not executing an advantage play - you are straight gambling.
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I was referring to simulations. cos I doubt more than 0.1% of gamblers have the sufficient bankroll to play 1 million hands. but I guess a few crazy millionaires have the money to overbet their bankrolls. i dont remember the name of the movie where likey guys who founded social media etc overbet their bankrolls to suicidal levels. they were playing poker.

Quote: toolyp

Quote: Dieter

Quote: toolyp

there are more losers because of insufficient players bankrolls.
link to original post

(heavily truncated)

If you're overbetting the bankroll, you are not executing an advantage play - you are straight gambling.
link to original post

I was referring to simulations. cos I doubt more than 0.1% of gamblers have the sufficient bankroll to play 1 million hands. but I guess a few crazy millionaires have the money to overbet their bankrolls. i dont remember the name of the movie where likey guys who founded social media etc overbet their bankrolls to suicidal levels. they were playing poker.
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I found the movie with a little help from my AI friend.
“Molly's Game” (Jessica Chastain, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfKO-xlBkPY

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you mentioned Norm Wattenberger a few times so I'm thinking you respect his point of view (although maybe I'm wrong)
the linked page is from Norm showing win rates increasing with the no. of hands
going to 75% with 10,000 hands
I'm posting this for you although I doubt it will convince you
I have no doubt that you will find a way to say that it is irrelevant or flawed

"Blackjack in Color" (found at Blackjack in Color) is not from a traditional printed book. It is a free, web-based online book and visual analysis project written by Norm Wattenberger.About the Online Project Format: A digital, chart-based resource rather than a physical book.Content: Uses around 140-145 full-color graphical charts to illustrate the mechanics of blackjack, house edge vulnerabilities, and card counting concepts.Purpose: Designed to show the "why" and "how" behind game statistics and player/house edges using visuals instead of dense data tables.."

at the bottom of the link you will see that he states that he did 20 sims - 250 million rounds each


https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackvariance3.htm


as to players tapping out due to a bankroll that is too small - Norm has a chart for that too - (see link)


you will see that at betting $10 to $180 with the rules he indicates the risk of ruin is 1.8% with a bank of $20,000

with only 5,000 hands the risk of ruin is below 1% with a $10,000 bankroll


https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackrisk1.htm


I'm done now - no more posts from me in this thread - nothing else for me to add - time to move on

.

You haven’t counted cards for decades but you are really persistent. The information you post probably is valid 50 years ago.

Quote: aceside

You haven’t counted cards for decades but you are really persistent. The information you post probably is valid 50 years ago.
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the probabilities do not change over time
what I posted is accurate and still relevant
Norm is regarded as one of bj's top experts
do you think he would state that those charts are no longer relevant?
not a chance
do you think google AI posts outdated material when you do a search- ?
not a chance
you posted that the 8 deck game could not be beaten - which is of course a ridiculous statement
(I posted that I was done but then I posted again. - my bad - now I'm done for sure - no matter what)

.

I believe OP is a good mathematician. AI posts are wrong.

Quote: toolyp

Read also my replies to Bill Ryan (methinks he worked for CBSsports). there is no maths in that AI mumbojumbo you posted. There is absolutely no relation to card counting, indeed to blackjack. Don repeated in Norms popular forum that there is NO maths in counting cards. He said that only sims can verify or invalidate a system. and Don used to teach mathematics! that AI mumbojumbo looks like refers to normal probability. likey an event occurs at least once in 99.7% of all tries or within 3 standard deviations. absolutely no relation to counting EV.

Many bj apps show again and again that around half of counters win, half of them lose. a few more losers are likely because of bankroll limitations and automatic increase of bet. regardless of number of hands played or simulated and number of counters players. It’s the same ratio for 100,00 hands, 1 million, 100 million, 1 billion etc. Im sure now all these counting guys who sell books, software and systems claimed .5% or 1% or max 2% counting gain based on sims. they've always said that cos they chose only the sims that made their point. They always disregard the sims that contradict their positions.

When all this fire started the computers couldnt test millions of blackjack hands. so many would-be counters took it for granted cos they couldnt do real testing. the computers became more and more powerful and the sellers or authors of counting systems and software raised the sim bar to hundreds of millions and recently to hundreds of billions. tomoz theyll raise the sim bar to 1 trillion hands to validate a card counting system.
link to original post

Bolding above was added by administrator.

If billryan actually worked at CBSSports and had not revealed that on this forum then you would be guilty of doxxing. If you're simply making up his CBSSports employment as a way of disparaging billryan then you're guilty of a personal attack that is false. Stop trying to discredit the opinions of people you disagree with by attacking who the forum member is outside of this forum.

We also discourage people from importing drama from other forums into this forum. We're not here to litigate controversies that took place in other forums. If you think someone said something about blackjack mathematics that is profoundly important then you are free to copy and paste the statement into this forum with appropriate attribution. But making sketchy statements about what "Don" kind'a sorta said in some other forum in the context of some sort of unmoderated argument is something we discourage.

I'm trying to be patient with you and explain the rules of this forum. This is a moderated forum and I encourage you to read the rules. Forum Rules

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yes, I said I wouldn't post anymore here but this is so good I couldn't resist - my bad
one more point from Norm Wattenberger in the same chart that I missed on my earlier post
how does bankroll effect you when you have a goal
so he caclulates how often you would double your bankroll before losing it all based on how large your bankroll is
this is quite excellent imo

from Norm:

"Let's throw in a goal. This is called a double barrier formula because we quit playing if we win or lose specified amounts. We are calculating the risk of bankruptcy before hitting a goal. In this chart a goal of $20,000 is selected. We are looking at the risk involved attempting to end up with $20,000 given bankrolls of $1,000 to $20,000. The risk at $1,000 is nearly the same as in the first chart, which had no goal. But the risk with a $20,000 bankroll is obviously zero and all risks in between are a bit lower.

Clearly bankroll is an important aspect of risk. But you can also lower risk by finding better games, reducing the betting level, or using a better strategy.

For all charts, we are playing six decks, S17, DAS, 5/6 penetration, Hi-Lo, betting optimally from $10-$180."


from the 3rd chart at the very bottom (which is why I missed it in my earlier post)


https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackrisk1.htm

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The game you post probably existed 48 years ago. Are you aware of this?

Quote: aceside

The game you post probably existed 48 years ago. Are you aware of this?

this link is from July of this year
6 deck games in LV with rules as good or better rules than indicated in Norm's chart (see link)
he house edge against basic strategy is quoted at "around 0.28%" which is less than the house edge in the games Norm indicated

from the link:

"The best six-deck blackjack games in Las Vegas are dealt in high-limit salons. These games stand on all 17’s. This means that if a dealer has a soft 17, the house stands. Most Las Vegas blackjack tables hit soft 17.

Aria High Limit Lounge

The best stand-on-all-17 blackjack tables in Las Vegas also add two player-friendly rules beyond allowing a double-down before and after splitting. The first is surrender, meaning the player can forfeit half of a bet and fold before hitting if the dealer does not have blackjack. The second is the ability to re-split aces up to four hands.

The house edge for this game is around 0.28%. Below is a summary of where you will find this game:

Strip casinos
16 casinos
$50-500 minimums

Downtown casinos
1 casino
$25 minimum

Locals and off-strip casinos
8 casinos
$50-100 minimums"



https://vegasadvantage.com/las-vegas-blackjack/las-vegas-six-and-eight-deck-blackjack/#:~:text=All%20six%2Ddeck%20blackjack%20games,Flamingo%2C%20Harrah's%2C%20and%20Vanderpump.


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As far as I know, it does not exist in North America.