kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 200
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September 23rd, 2020 at 3:53:02 PM permalink
For those that don't like my blackjack updates....don't read.

2020 is my 17th year of supporting myself solely from blackjack play. My blackjack results like so many other things this year is just a complete mess. Today nearly 9 months through the year (although casinos were closed for 3 months), I have now dipped into the red for the year. :(

I have never had a losing year. I have heard other players that have. I thought such a thing was like bigfoot. Lol. Maybe not. I am not there yet, but whatever happens, it looks like this will probably be a bad year. Prior to this year, my worse year since I moved to Vegas and began playing roughly the same stakes has been $27k profit vs expectation of 85k for my play. That is about 60k under expectation. And this year I am currently at 56k expectation and just over 2 grand in the hole, so also roughly 60 grand below expectation for the year.

Now I should mention that I have been playing higher stakes since casinos re-opened than I have played before. Playing higher stakes was going to allow me to build more E.V. to make up for lost (literally) time. Of course the risk is bigger swings (variance) and that is what has bitten me. I just have not won much while playing higher stakes.

In addition to just being on the wrong side of variance just when I started betting more, I just have not handled the larger swings that are normal for my blackjack play very well. Swings of $12,000, $15,000 even a couple $20,000 days are just way more than I am used to and frankly outside of my comfort zone. I have recently gone back to my regular mid-level stakes and just going to see what happened the remaining quarter of the year. There is a very good chance this Covid 2020 is just going to be a bad year all around in so many aspects, including my blackjack results.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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September 23rd, 2020 at 4:05:59 PM permalink
If I ever get off the low-roller tables, I'd probably buy-in for $1,000 sessions in hopes of turning it into $9800 cash-outs for the day.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 23rd, 2020 at 8:49:02 PM permalink
It be what it be.

you've had periods where your results were above EV and now you are going through the opposite.
Are you including the unemployment income you received? I'd think you should.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 23rd, 2020 at 9:40:40 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


Are you including the unemployment income you received? I'd think you should.



No, I was only including my blackjack results. I did receive 10 weeks of unemployment compensation, a very unusual thing for a professional player, in these very unusual times. I also have some machine play income, having hit several royals in the limited machine play that I have done, so running ahead of expectation in that regard. Just blackjack has been a wasted year so far.
stephencmarvin
stephencmarvin
Joined: Sep 23, 2020
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September 23rd, 2020 at 10:39:10 PM permalink
it's a type of game in which your skills are matters as well as your luck.
Stephan M.
Minty
Minty
Joined: Jan 23, 2015
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September 23rd, 2020 at 11:02:46 PM permalink
That's really too bad. How many hours have you out in to be that far below expectation?
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 24th, 2020 at 1:07:25 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

No, I was only including my blackjack results. I did receive 10 weeks of unemployment compensation, a very unusual thing for a professional player, in these very unusual times. I also have some machine play income, having hit several royals in the limited machine play that I have done, so running ahead of expectation in that regard. Just blackjack has been a wasted year so far.



Chin up, KewlJ, you’re the one who (correctly) says it’s the accumulated EV that matters. By that standard, no such thing as a, “Wasted year.”
Vultures can't be choosers.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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September 24th, 2020 at 1:10:56 AM permalink
Watching a couple Blackjack videos with a $200 buy-in with $10 bets and a $5 raise on each consecutive win: oh, I mean 100X all that. And I've never seen such bad luck at the tables, OMG!

🃏 1st TIME EVER BLACKJACK at Caesars! 🃏 Up to $4,000 Per Hand - INSANITY - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIiv2bK22Ms
Up to $5,000/HAND BIRTHDAY BLACKJACK LIVE @ Atlantis Reno 🃏 Don’t Miss This! - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSVvRtQyKck

Slotlady says she just had the worst luck at the BJ tables that she's ever seen in her life.
Live Blackjack!! $1000 Starting Bankroll! Sept 18 2019 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtD-REsKcYc
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Sep 24, 2020
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 200
  • Posts: 3714
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 24th, 2020 at 8:22:38 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Chin up, KewlJ, you’re the one who (correctly) says it’s the accumulated EV that matters. By that standard, no such thing as a, “Wasted year.”



Thanks Mission. I am not "down" or anything over these results. I have been at this long enough and had enough good years to know how this rolls (like a rollercoaster) lol. It is just sort of like what Minty said. I feel like I wasted a year or part of a year at this point. Oh well.

So, "accumulated EV". When I have used that term on another forum, I receive a lot of ridicule. People calling it "Phantom bucks" and making comments about how you can't buy groceries with EV. :/ Of course these are people who believe in all sorts of 'voodoo' gambling concepts' and don't seem to have a clue about EV. Good to be on a forum where people understand EV.
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 6
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September 24th, 2020 at 8:47:16 AM permalink
KewlJ, do you ever ‘cycle’ your bet spread/risk/EV based on whether you are up for the year? It sounds like you did a little this year...bigger bet spread until going into the hole and then revert back to your comfortable/lower risk bet spread. This might help with longevity too. Your normal places didn’t up the heat or take more notice of you with the bigger bets?

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