theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 3rd, 2020 at 12:37:15 PM permalink
Greetings everyone!

So as I've mentioned before, I've been reevaluating my AP plans for next year and I figured I would share my plans with you guys. Assuming this virus is not still a big problem and Las Vegas is somewhat back to normal, it seems to me what makes the most sense is to focus solely on 2D games. On average, it costs me around $750 - $1k to make the trip to Vegas and other places that offer good 2D games (this includes travel, room, food, everything etc.). I can find descent 6D games closer to me but after running the numbers it just makes logical sense not to waste time on them. By only playing 2D games with at least 60-65% pen using AO2 full indices, I can keep my hourly win rate at around $100/hr (around $12 per shoe in the long run). This will pretty much be picking up where I left off, with the goal being 500 shoes per month, at least 2-3 trips per month. I calculate that as long as I keep my expenses per trip at $1k or less, which should be easy, I expect my EV for the year to be around $50k (after subtracting expenses). This is staying at a $25 unit, as much as I would really like to use a $50 or $100 unit and go for $100 - $200k EV, I just dont see it financially possible. I've considered taking a loan if needed or playing with higher risk, its incredibly tempting but overall not a very smart idea. Anyways, just figured I would run my thoughts by you guys as I'm sitting near the coast waiting on Hurricane Isaias!

Hope all is well guys!

- Omega
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 3rd, 2020 at 1:19:03 PM permalink
ASSUMING the virus is still not a big problem? You do know about "assume" right? lol

Las Vegas somewhat back to normal? I am less sure about that. I think blackjack has begun and will continue to change. Things like more electronic games and stadium type TITO games. I think some of these changes were on the horizon anyway but covid-19 will speed up those changes.

I am trying to get away from offering unsolicited advice but since you asked, I have some thoughts.

Can I ask how much experience you have playing blackjack at the limits you are talking about? I ask because you obsession with double deck games, kind of hints you haven't played a good many hours at these limits. Double deck games are sweaty! I mean yeah, you run the numbers on sims, and double deck is far superior to shoe games. But that higher win rate means little, if you can't actually play or play for long.

I mean I live in Vegas and play a home rotation of 30 some casinos (pre-covid) and I only play 4 double deck games despite that there are many more that simulations say are good games. The term some of us that play Vegas like to use is "counter trap". Many DD games, especially at chain casinos are just hawked to closely and intolerant of even smaller spreads. You might get some play in, but only at short bursts and you are better off playing independent casinos, not associated with others, so if you do lose that game for a period of time, it is only at one location rather than a whole chain.

I actually have come to prefer 6 deck shoe games. If you find a decent game with good pen, and can play heads up or maybe one other player, you can really rack up the rounds (and EV) quickly. Even more so than a "better" double deck game. AND with much less heat.

Just some thoughts.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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August 3rd, 2020 at 1:25:49 PM permalink
DD has always been my BJ game. It's the game I've won a LOT at, and been banned for a couple years as a result of too. I feel very comfortable and in the groove with DD.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 3rd, 2020 at 1:42:35 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Just some thoughts.




KJ:

I wonder if you saw the post by smoothgrh which was a summary in a book of a news article about AP blackjack before Thorpe
the news article is from December 4, 1960
I retrieved it from newspapers.com and it is linked here in 4 pieces - I had to play around with screenshots to get it all
everything is here except the last sentence which is - "Both of them were waiting eagerly last night for a chance to earn a lot more"
I posted this on BJTF and nobody had ever heard of it - I thought it would be sensational - but the attitude there seemed to be no big deal
𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙬𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 - because it predates Thorp's 𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳 which came out in 1962

it's all there - some of it overlaps - it's the best I could do - I'm not real geekay
you will have to blow it up to read it - if you click on the image - even though you don't see the usual prompt - Imgur.com will blow it up for you so that it is easily readable
I'm very curious about your opinion of this - to me it is: 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗷𝗮𝗰𝗸








𝘈 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴.... ᴴᵉʳᵐᵃⁿ ᴹᵉˡᵛⁱˡˡᵉ
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChangeMinty
August 3rd, 2020 at 1:51:51 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

DD has always been my BJ game. It's the game I've won a LOT at, and been banned for a couple years as a result of too. I feel very comfortable and in the groove with DD.



Like I said, you run simulations and DD is almost always the better game with higher win rate. (That is why DD is hawked so closely).

But I'll tell you why I have come to appreciate and prefer 6 deck games. If you get a good 6 deck game head up or with one other player, you can fly through the rounds. 300-400 rounds per hour is quite possible heads up with a decent dealer. This means win rate will be far greater than any DD game with all the shuffling. It also means the time that I, as a card counter am exposed, which is the hands with my larger bets out is minimized because the game moves so quickly. You avoid that "dead time".

The second really good thing, is not often but occasionally, you are playing say, heads up and the count goes positive early and stays there, meaning you can get 50 rounds or so, played at an advantage before the shuffle. Can't do that with DD. Might take you 5-6 hour of DD play to get those 50 rounds at significant advantage.

And finally, in general, you get those benefits with a game that is less "hawked" or better tolerated. And especially if there is a better DD game in the same casino and/or pit. The 6 deck is watched less closely and tolerated better....generally.

A guy that goes by the handle "bigplayer" on some of the blackjack forums, long time member of one of the top and well known teams and member of the BJHoF, one said, for increased longevity, identify the best game in each casino and play the second best. :) (being that the best is the one closely watched).
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 198
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August 3rd, 2020 at 2:01:08 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

KJ:

I wonder if you saw the post by smoothgrh which was a summary in a book of a news article about AP blackjack before Thorpe
the news article is from December 4, 1960
I retrieved it from newspapers.com and it is linked here in 4 pieces - I had to play around with screenshots to get it all
everything is here except the last sentence which is - "Both of them were waiting eagerly last night for a chance to earn a lot more"
I posted this on BJTF and nobody had ever heard of it - I thought it would be sensational - but the attitude there seemed to be no big deal
𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙬𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 - because it predates Thorp's 𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳 which came out in 1962

it's all there - some of it overlaps - it's the best I could do - I'm not real geekay
you will have to blow it up to read it - if you click on the image - even though you don't see the usual prompt - Imgur.com will blow it up for you so that it is easily readable
I'm very curious about your opinion of this - to me it is: 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗷𝗮𝗰𝗸



I did glance at it at BJTF. I do read that forum. lol

I got to say, I don't find it as sensational as you seem to. I think it is commonly thought that there were players using different elementary counts prior to Thorpe. He just publicized it. Similarly, I would be there were players using some variation of basic strategy very similar if not identical before the 4 military guys came up with basic strategy.

As a matter of fact there were likely players using both basic strategy and some sort of elementary count that were pretty unhappy when both these things were publicized.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 198
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August 3rd, 2020 at 2:05:49 PM permalink
Just me personally, but I am not a huge fan of Thorpe. I think because he wasn't in it for the money, only the math and publicity. He initially proved his theory by playing Silver Dollars. And then of course, published his findings, having made no real money from it. That is just hard for a guy like me to appreciate. :/
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 155
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August 3rd, 2020 at 2:16:02 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj



I I don't find it as sensational .




yeah, I get what you're saying - I too knew that there were likely players before Thorp doing something similar
but what I found so astonishing is that this was the first, as far as I know, 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 display of the power of card tracking
and what they did was likely much more sophisticated and comprehensive than what other players were doing
and basically, these guys are totally unknown
I'm guessing that they didn't fully appreciate what they had done
𝘈 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴.... ᴴᵉʳᵐᵃⁿ ᴹᵉˡᵛⁱˡˡᵉ
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
  • Threads: 12
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August 3rd, 2020 at 3:22:50 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

ASSUMING the virus is still not a big problem? You do know about "assume" right? lol

Las Vegas somewhat back to normal? I am less sure about that. I think blackjack has begun and will continue to change. Things like more electronic games and stadium type TITO games. I think some of these changes were on the horizon anyway but covid-19 will speed up those changes.

I am trying to get away from offering unsolicited advice but since you asked, I have some thoughts.

Can I ask how much experience you have playing blackjack at the limits you are talking about? I ask because you obsession with double deck games, kind of hints you haven't played a good many hours at these limits. Double deck games are sweaty! I mean yeah, you run the numbers on sims, and double deck is far superior to shoe games. But that higher win rate means little, if you can't actually play or play for long.

I mean I live in Vegas and play a home rotation of 30 some casinos (pre-covid) and I only play 4 double deck games despite that there are many more that simulations say are good games. The term some of us that play Vegas like to use is "counter trap". Many DD games, especially at chain casinos are just hawked to closely and intolerant of even smaller spreads. You might get some play in, but only at short bursts and you are better off playing independent casinos, not associated with others, so if you do lose that game for a period of time, it is only at one location rather than a whole chain.

I actually have come to prefer 6 deck shoe games. If you find a decent game with good pen, and can play heads up or maybe one other player, you can really rack up the rounds (and EV) quickly. Even more so than a "better" double deck game. AND with much less heat.

Just some thoughts.



Thanks for the response Kewlj! I appreciate the advice, to answer your question I have a pretty good amount of experience playing 2D games in Vegas, I would say about 600-700 hours or so, all rated and never had any problems. Even got a week stay comped at the Monte Carlo once after playing all night on their $50 min 2D S17 game, that was spreading $50 - $250. Ive played a lot of different places spreading $25 - $250, I guess I've just been very lucky but I've had no back offs in Vegas.
That streak very well may end but as now I plan to hit them as hard as I can, the 2D games in Vegas are just way too lucrative to pass up, I cant make nearly the EV on the 6D games. But I understand what you're saying, you make good points! May I ask, have you had many back offs in Vegas and are there any places you would suggest to avoid?
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 198
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
August 3rd, 2020 at 3:41:13 PM permalink
Quote: theOmega623

Thanks for the response Kewlj! I appreciate the advice, to answer your question I have a pretty good amount of experience playing 2D games in Vegas, I would say about 600-700 hours or so, all rated and never had any problems. Even got a week stay comped at the Monte Carlo once after playing all night on their $50 min game, that was spreading $50 - $250. Ive played a lot of different places spreading $25 - $250, I guess I've just been very lucky but I've had no back offs in Vegas.
That streak very well may end but as now I plan to hit them as hard as I can, the 2D games in Vegas are just way too lucrative to pass up, I cant make nearly the EV on the 6D games. But I understand what you're saying, you make good points! May I ask, have you had many back offs in Vegas and are there any places you would suggest to avoid?



Hey if playing DD is working for you, god bless. Maybe you have a real good act. ?? One thing you have going is $250 max bet is an amount that is tolerated pretty well. If you get up to closer to $500 it starts to become a bigger problem.

Ok, when I moved to Vegas in late 2009, my top priority was longevity. Having worn out my welcome in Atlantic City, I wanted to come up with a plan, style of play and limits that would allow me to play for 10 years (a period that has come and gone and now I would like another 5-10 lol).

So I had ideas about short sessions (perfect for Las Vegas with it's many games) and what limits I wanted to play that I THOUGHT would be better tolerated, but it really took some trial and error to get that down pat. And part of that trial and error involves back offs. My first few years, I would be backed off 6-8 times a year. Maybe 10 times my worst year. As time went on that, number went down to now 3-4. Part of that is you just know they are coming before they do and can avoid them. You just learn to read when your play is making pit uncomfortable.

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary. Best way to survive is to just exit as quickly and quietly as possible, with as little commotion. The least memorable you make yourself and the backoff incident, the better. You aren't going to talk your way out of a backoff (and if you did it would buy you almost nothing), so anything you do or say other than quietly exiting only serves to make you more memorable. Just exit. Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.

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