Vegas Vacation with AOS

Exactly Tom and Buzz
As if anyone planning anything nefarious would announce it openly

Hiding in plain sight.....that's a thing right? :)

I know a nefarious individual who announced an act of treachery with a voodoo doll.

Quote: aceofspades

your fellow forum members just need an ear and a "go get'em next time" pep talk

It is very hard for educated gamblers to give someone a pep talk when they think that person is capable of playing with a much stronger advantage, You are not playing to your ability. Your in a position others would dream of. A few guys work their asses off practicing,studying and learning all the nuances of continuing. They have extremely small bankrolls, they would love to have the cash you have to make something happen. I can imagine they just cringe thinking, What they could do with what you are working with. Don't you cringe when you see some one playing big money BJ and hitting or standing on bad hands? Every time some of us hear speed count, we cringe just the same.

If your friends were doing something you felt was destructive or half ass'ed, I cant imagine you would tell them,"go get'em next time." You may say its ok do better next time.

Quote: AxelWolf

It is very hard for educated gamblers to give someone a pep talk when they think that person is capable of playing with a much stronger advantage, You are not playing to your ability. Your in a position others would dream of. A few guys work their asses off practicing,studying and learning all the nuances of continuing. They have extremely small bankrolls, they would love to have the cash you have to make something happen. I can imagine they just cringe thinking, What they could do with what you are working with. Don't you cringe when you see some one playing big money BJ and hitting or standing on bad hands? Every time some of us hear speed count, we cringe just the same.

If your friends were doing something you felt was destructive or half ass'ed, I cant imagine you would tell them,"go get'em next time." You may say its ok do better next time.

Yeah, this is pretty much it. Obviously we don't want you to lose, but if you keep using speed count it's probably going to keep happening and we wouldn't be very good friends if we did not point that out.

Laying 6 to 1 Ace uses Speed Count on next trip.

Quote: Buzzard

Laying 6 to 1 Ace uses Speed Count on next trip.

I'll take that action

You're on. I don't believe you. Hands off the trigger Mission. Did not call him a liar. Just do not believe him. Fine line I admit.

Quote: Buzzard

You're on. I don't believe you. Hands off the trigger Mission. Did not call him a liar. Just do not believe him. Fine line I admit.

This is a +EV bet if I have ever seen one.....

ace, get him to give you as much as he can afford and simply learn hi/lo. This is like someone paying YOU to study :)

Buzz, if you want to throw any action my way at 6-1, I will be happy to put down some cash!

Deleted

Quote: Tomspur

This is a +EV bet if I have ever seen one.....

ace, get him to give you as much as he can afford and simply learn hi/lo. This is like someone paying YOU to study :)

Buzz, if you want to throw any action my way at 6-1, I will be happy to put down some cash!

So long as I don't use speed count I win the bet

Quote: aceofspades

So long as I don't use speed count I win the bet

Exactamundo.....We can bankrupt Buzz if we play our cards right....pardon the pun :)

You probably won't believe this but I took a chance and bought in for 2500
At a 2D game
My first 3 hands were doubles lost all three
Then dealer made 3 blackjacks
End of shuffle

New shuffle lost first 5 hands
I had
20, 20, 19, 17, 17


Switched tables lost 6 in a row with the following hands

73 double get 6
83 double get Ace
Dealer BJ
Dealer BJ
55 double 8 (dealer showing 8 turns over Ace)
Dealer BJ
Yes all those Aces

ANOTHER 2500 gone



Putting aside speed count versus hi/lo and all of that
Has anyone EVER encountered this level of negative variance wherein dealers have consistently, in every shuffle or shoe...been able to make 90% of their hands, pull blackjacks at will and player loses virtually every double down...?

You cannot tell me this is speed count versus hi/Lo or any such other type of debate---this is some sort of insanity only seen once or twice in a lifetime of blackjack.
So please no "Ace should use hi/lo" comments because they are not applicable for purposes of this discussion

Regarding the count you are using, IMO, you should look hard at KO. It doesn't have the true count conversion that Hi-Lo has so it is only marginally more difficult than SC but is much more effective.

EDIT: sorry, just saw last post, apologize for posting about the count system. Regarding your run of bad luck, it sounds pretty brutal. But that is the whole reason to have a bankroll and to make sure you aren't over betting it. In my last 3 BJ sessions I've lost about $5k each session. No session was longer than about an hour. It wasn't pleasant, but doesn't bother me because I have a proper bankroll and know that over the long run I will come out ahead.

Quote: aceofspades

Putting aside speed count versus hi/lo and all of that
Has anyone EVER encountered this level of negative variance wherein dealers have consistently, in every shuffle or shoe...been able to make 90% of their hands, pull blackjacks at will and player loses virtually every double down...?

You cannot tell me this is speed count versus hi/Lo or any such other type of debate---this is some sort of insanity only seen once or twice in a lifetime of blackjack.
So please no "Ace should use hi/lo" comments because they are not applicable for purposes of this discussion

I can't really conclude much about the manner in which you're losing -- not that the manner really matters. But I am not sure your records are as accurate as possible. For example, you said you lost 15 hands in a row at one point. That's just so unlikely. It's so much more likely that you went, say, 11 losses, 1 win, and 3 pushes over the course of the 15 hands. Now please note, I am not saying you're lying. It's just that in the heat of the moment, with big bets out, and the pressure on, memories get shuffled a bit. Casino table games are a high-pressure environment.

If you did lose the 15 hands in a row, well that's just terrible luck. You'd have to play more than 40,000 15-hand sessions, on average, to lose all 15 hands in a single 15-hand session. That's 600,000 hands of blackjack. That's way more than you've played in your life. So that would be a real outlier. And all that assumes that they shuffle after every hand. In real life, losing one hand of blackjack makes it more likely you'll win the next one.

ANYWAY, here is the real point.

Your unit is $100, right? And you are down about ~$15k for the trip? That's 150 units lost for the trip. That is a bad loss, yes, but it's not unprecedented and you shouldn't feel like a loser for it happening.

I just went into the back of my closet and found my copy of Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Anderson, who is probably one of the best solo card counters who ever lived.

Anderson once went on a losing streak of 1,458 units. That's an order of magnitude more than your 150 units. And Anderson is using a perfect counting system, perfect playing strategy and count-dependent deviations, and probably sophisticated side counts for both betting and playing purposes. Anderson also has methods for increasing penetration and inducing dealer errors.

Point is, Anderson's edge is about as big as it gets in blackjack, and your game is HOPEFULLY breakeven if the "speed count" is not total bunco. And he still lost 10 times as many units as you in a single losing streak.

Losing streaks are a part of blackjack, whether you have the edge or not. They're not moral failures and you shouldn't beat yourself up about them. Just play your best game, or play until you're no longer having fun.

Quote: sodawater

I can't really conclude much about the manner in which you're losing -- not that the manner really matters. But I am not sure your records are as accurate as possible. For example, you said you lost 15 hands in a row at one point. That's just so unlikely. It's so much more likely that you went, say, 11 losses, 1 win, and 3 pushes over the course of the 15 hands. Now please note, I am not saying you're lying. It's just that in the heat of the moment, with big bets out, and the pressure on, memories get shuffled a bit. Casino table games are a high-pressure environment.

If you did lose the 15 hands in a row, well that's just terrible luck. You'd have to play more than 40,000 15-hand sessions, on average, to lose all 15 hands in a single 15-hand session. That's 600,000 hands of blackjack. That's way more than you've played in your life. So that would be a real outlier. And all that assumes that they shuffle after every hand. In real life, losing one hand of blackjack makes it more likely you'll win the next one.

ANYWAY, here is the real point.

Your unit is $100, right? And you are down about ~$15k for the trip? That's 150 units lost for the trip. That is a bad loss, yes, but it's not unprecedented and you shouldn't feel like a loser for it happening.

I just went into the back of my closet and found my copy of Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Anderson, who is probably one of the best solo card counters who ever lived.

Anderson once went on a losing streak of 1,458 units. That's an order of magnitude more than your 150 units. And Anderson is using a perfect counting system, perfect playing strategy and count-dependent deviations, and probably sophisticated side counts for both betting and playing purposes. Anderson also has methods for increasing penetration and inducing dealer errors.

Point is, Anderson's edge is about as big as it gets in blackjack, and your game is HOPEFULLY breakeven if the "speed count" is not total bunco. And he still lost 10 times as many units as you in a single losing streak.

Losing streaks are a part of blackjack, whether you have the edge or not. They're not moral failures and you shouldn't beat yourself up about them. Just play your best game, or play until you're no longer having fun.

This is by far and away the best post in this thread.

Quote: sodawater

I can't really conclude much about the manner in which you're losing -- not that the manner really matters. But I am not sure your records are as accurate as possible. For example, you said you lost 15 hands in a row at one point. That's just so unlikely. It's so much more likely that you went, say, 11 losses, 1 win, and 3 pushes over the course of the 15 hands. Now please note, I am not saying you're lying. It's just that in the heat of the moment, with big bets out, and the pressure on, memories get shuffled a bit. Casino table games are a high-pressure environment.

If you did lose the 15 hands in a row, well that's just terrible luck. You'd have to play more than 40,000 15-hand sessions, on average, to lose all 15 hands in a single 15-hand session. That's 600,000 hands of blackjack. That's way more than you've played in your life. So that would be a real outlier. And all that assumes that they shuffle after every hand. In real life, losing one hand of blackjack makes it more likely you'll win the next one.

ANYWAY, here is the real point.

Your unit is $100, right? And you are down about ~$15k for the trip? That's 150 units lost for the trip. That is a bad loss, yes, but it's not unprecedented and you shouldn't feel like a loser for it happening.

I just went into the back of my closet and found my copy of Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Anderson, who is probably one of the best solo card counters who ever lived.

Anderson once went on a losing streak of 1,458 units. That's an order of magnitude more than your 150 units. And Anderson is using a perfect counting system, perfect playing strategy and count-dependent deviations, and probably sophisticated side counts for both betting and playing purposes. Anderson also has methods for increasing penetration and inducing dealer errors.

Point is, Anderson's edge is about as big as it gets in blackjack, and your game is HOPEFULLY breakeven if the "speed count" is not total bunco. And he still lost 10 times as many units as you in a single losing streak.

Losing streaks are a part of blackjack, whether you have the edge or not. They're not moral failures and you shouldn't beat yourself up about them. Just play your best game, or play until you're no longer having fun.

I have no reason to lie about the 15 hands in a row and it has happened on other occasions.

Despite your not wanting to discuss the manner in which my Memorial Day massacre occurred...it is something I would like to discuss here...

The negative variance I experienced was mind-boggling
You stated that each hand lost makes the next one a more likely winner....is that not a restatement of the gambler's fallacy?


I suppose I am looking for a compatriot -- someone who experienced this type of blackjack negative downturn in such a short period of time.

Will I regain the losses...yes, I believe I will. Will they come back as quickly as they went...unlikely. However, I base my play, ultimately, by the year...and, that being said, right now, through the first half of this year, I am -5500

Quote: Tomspur

This is by far and away the best post in this thread.

Thanks, Tom.

Quote: aceofspades

I have no reason to lie about the 15 hands in a row and it has happened on other occasions.

I know you have no reason to lie. I don't think you are lying, and I never said I thought you were lying.

Quote: aceofspades

this is some sort of insanity only seen once or twice in a lifetime of blackjack.
So please no "Ace should use hi/lo" comments because they are not applicable for purposes of this discussion

Yes this is insane. Did you check your drinks for LSD (:
Its to bad you didn't get wasted or drugged and pass out like one of our members. Apparently this often leads to waking up with an unexplained extra 2K in your pocket (oh crap that's only on craps) And his ass may or may not have hurt for some reason.

I really hate to bring back the Pain, but I don't think anyone can really get the full scope of the lightning strike that has happened here.

Obviously there were some wins sprinkled in between, but this is a highlight of the unbelievable Losses you endured and lived to tell about.


*session 1 I lost every hand the first shuffle

Axel: I guess some good BJ in between

*at one point I lost every single hand in a shuffle of 2d

*Just lost every hand in the shuffle on 6 of 8 shuffles

*Every single hand I pressed the dealer had an Ace showing (not exaggerating--roll back the tape and it will be shown as true)

*regained a whopping 400
However...all was not to be rosy as I hit another downturn

*Dealt an 8,8 v dealer 6
Split got another 8
First 8: 10 for 18
Second 8: 3 then double dealt a 9 for 20
Third 8: Ace for 19

Dealer has 6 turns over 8...then Ace...Ace...5 for 21

However, by the beard of Zeuss I hit some positive variance and was able to press and regain the 1k plus another 1k

*Just played first shuffle
Told the dealer every time I pressed yesterday dealer got 21
He said no way
I pressed and he pulled a 3 card 21 then I lost 8 in a row

*Just hAd 6 doubles in a row and lost 5

*I had 500 up got a 6,5 v 3
Doubled got. 9 for 20

Dealer has 3 turns over 2...then 2...then 2...then 4...then Ace...then 7 for 21

Just split 9 9 9
Got 14 15 16

Dealer has 3 5 3 3 3


Then lost 4 doubles

*Just lost 3 doubles

*Just had a double that would've completed the comeback BUT NOOOOOOOOO
why should I win that one or any of the next 5 hands
Geez can I catch a break at all

******Transferred to Aria**********

*Just lost 5 doubles
Then a guy comes in midshoe and gets a blackjack and tells out PERFECT TIMING

*Switched tables just lost another 400


Switched tables and lost another 1600 then recaptured some of it

******************* THIS IS 15 LOSSES IN A ROW more important its 14 hard 20's or better in a row
Dealer just pulled

20
20
20
20
BJ
20
20
20
BJ
20
21


Trip is -3k
*Started a new shoe she gets

BJ
20
20

I had a 65 double I get a 9 for 20
She goes 6 5 3 7
********************

*switched tables won 5 hands in the entire shoe

Dealer started shoe just now with
BJ
BJ
20
BJ
I walked away

*Just lost EVERY SINGLE HAND in a 2d game

*Dealer just made 5 twenty-ones in a row Axel: WOW insanity

*Dealer just got 5 blackjacks in half a 6deck shoe

*I finally won 3 hands in a row so I pressed to 200
Got 9,9,9
Then 2 king 2
On the doubles I got 7 and 8
So my hands were
18 19 19

Dealer has 4 turns over 7 then 10 for 21

******Ok morning session:


Was up 400
Dealer then got 4 bj in a 2d game and I lost 4 dbls
Dealer just made 6 twenty ones in a row
Switched tables dealer first 5 hands were 21
Won the first 5 hands at new table then the first hand I press is dealer bj lol

Down another 2k at this point


Switched tables again and in two shuffles of 2d got it back plus 1600

***********Axel:Very Unlucky,Never seen this******
Dealer just made 6 twenty ones in a row
Guy jumps in midshoe for 3 hands I lose all three and next 5 after
I had 500 up and got 20 dealer pulls a 9 card 21
I switched tables won 5 in a row a guy walking by says "I'm getting in on that" he wins next 4 I lose all 4
I am so out of my game
Just doubled ace 6 v dealer 4 I get a 3 for 20
Dealer goes 4 4 5 ace ace 6
Split aces v dealer 5
She goes 5 5 3 7
But I got a ten on each YAY!!!
Just lost two more doubles
Just lost 7 doubles
Just lost 3 splits and a double
I'm now down 10k again
**************************************************
>>>>>Just lost 15 hands in a row<<<<<<<< Axel: WOW that's really bad luck, 2nd time in 1 trip, 15 hands in a row once is incredible bit 2 times in 1 trip YIKES


*My first 3 hands were doubles lost all three
Then dealer made 3 blackjacks
End of shuffle

*New shuffle lost first 5 hands
I had
20, 20, 19, 17, 17


*Switched tables lost 6 in a row with the following hands

73 double get 6
83 double get Ace
Dealer BJ
Dealer BJ
55 double 8 (dealer showing 8 turns over Ace)
Dealer BJ
Yes all those Aces

Axel:I would have to say no I have never heard of such an amazing Blackjack Trip. Amazingly bad yes but amazing non the less.

Quote: AxelWolf

Yes this is insane. Did you check your drinks for LSD (:
Its to bad you didn't get wasted or drugged and pass out like one of our members. Apparently this often leads to waking up with an unexplained extra 2K in your pocket (oh crap that's only on craps) And his ass may or may not have hurt for some reason.

I really hate to bring back the Pain, but I don't think anyone can really get the full scope of the lightning strike that has happened here.

Obviously there were some wins sprinkled in between, but this is a highlight of the unbelievable Losses you endured and lived to tell about.


*session 1 I lost every hand the first shuffle

Axel: I guess some good BJ in between

*at one point I lost every single hand in a shuffle of 2d

*Just lost every hand in the shuffle on 6 of 8 shuffles

*Every single hand I pressed the dealer had an Ace showing (not exaggerating--roll back the tape and it will be shown as true)

*regained a whopping 400
However...all was not to be rosy as I hit another downturn

*Dealt an 8,8 v dealer 6
Split got another 8
First 8: 10 for 18
Second 8: 3 then double dealt a 9 for 20
Third 8: Ace for 19

Dealer has 6 turns over 8...then Ace...Ace...5 for 21

However, by the beard of Zeuss I hit some positive variance and was able to press and regain the 1k plus another 1k

*Just played first shuffle
Told the dealer every time I pressed yesterday dealer got 21
He said no way
I pressed and he pulled a 3 card 21 then I lost 8 in a row

*Just hAd 6 doubles in a row and lost 5

*I had 500 up got a 6,5 v 3
Doubled got. 9 for 20

Dealer has 3 turns over 2...then 2...then 2...then 4...then Ace...then 7 for 21

Just split 9 9 9
Got 14 15 16

Dealer has 3 5 3 3 3


Then lost 4 doubles

*Just lost 3 doubles

*Just had a double that would've completed the comeback BUT NOOOOOOOOO
why should I win that one or any of the next 5 hands
Geez can I catch a break at all

******Transferred to Aria**********

*Just lost 5 doubles
Then a guy comes in midshoe and gets a blackjack and tells out PERFECT TIMING

*Switched tables just lost another 400


Switched tables and lost another 1600 then recaptured some of it

******************* THIS IS 15 LOSSES IN A ROW more important its 14 hard 20's or better in a row
Dealer just pulled

20
20
20
20
BJ
20
20
20
BJ
20
21


Trip is -3k
*Started a new shoe she gets

BJ
20
20

I had a 65 double I get a 9 for 20
She goes 6 5 3 7
********************

*switched tables won 5 hands in the entire shoe

Dealer started shoe just now with
BJ
BJ
20
BJ
I walked away

*Just lost EVERY SINGLE HAND in a 2d game

*Dealer just made 5 twenty-ones in a row Axel: WOW insanity

*Dealer just got 5 blackjacks in half a 6deck shoe

*I finally won 3 hands in a row so I pressed to 200
Got 9,9,9
Then 2 king 2
On the doubles I got 7 and 8
So my hands were
18 19 19

Dealer has 4 turns over 7 then 10 for 21

******Ok morning session:


Was up 400
Dealer then got 4 bj in a 2d game and I lost 4 dbls
Dealer just made 6 twenty ones in a row
Switched tables dealer first 5 hands were 21
Won the first 5 hands at new table then the first hand I press is dealer bj lol

Down another 2k at this point


Switched tables again and in two shuffles of 2d got it back plus 1600

***********Axel:Very Unlucky,Never seen this******
Dealer just made 6 twenty ones in a row
Guy jumps in midshoe for 3 hands I lose all three and next 5 after
I had 500 up and got 20 dealer pulls a 9 card 21
I switched tables won 5 in a row a guy walking by says "I'm getting in on that" he wins next 4 I lose all 4
I am so out of my game
Just doubled ace 6 v dealer 4 I get a 3 for 20
Dealer goes 4 4 5 ace ace 6
Split aces v dealer 5
She goes 5 5 3 7
But I got a ten on each YAY!!!
Just lost two more doubles
Just lost 7 doubles
Just lost 3 splits and a double
I'm now down 10k again
**************************************************
>>>>>Just lost 15 hands in a row<<<<<<<< Axel: WOW that's really bad luck, 2nd time in 1 trip, 15 hands in a row once is incredible bit 2 times in 1 trip YIKES


*My first 3 hands were doubles lost all three
Then dealer made 3 blackjacks
End of shuffle

*New shuffle lost first 5 hands
I had
20, 20, 19, 17, 17


*Switched tables lost 6 in a row with the following hands

73 double get 6
83 double get Ace
Dealer BJ
Dealer BJ
55 double 8 (dealer showing 8 turns over Ace)
Dealer BJ
Yes all those Aces



Axel:I would have to say no I have never heard of such an amazing Blackjack Trip. Amazingly bad yes but amazing non the less.

As a good friend of mine who also plays BJ told me "if it wasn't you telling me this, I'd have thought it was a bad movie script"

Quote: sodawater

If you did lose the 15 hands in a row, well that's just terrible luck.

Not once 2 times.

Imagine, you could bet both sides, dealer's and your own. That's why I play baccarat.

Quote: Dicenor33

Imagine, you could bet both sides, dealer's and your own. That's why I play baccarat.

From what I understand AceOS has a fair amount of intelligents and likes a challenge and likes to be able to make real decisions. I kid you not, a monkey can play Bac and do just as good or bad then the best Bac player in the world.

Quote: aceofspades

You stated that each hand lost makes the next one a more likely winner....is that not a restatement of the gambler's fallacy?

No, it has to do with the fact that blackjack is a game of dependent trials. Given no other information, the fact that you lost a hand makes it more likely that bad player cards were removed from the deck, leaving a slightly better chance than normal for the player to win the next hand.

If it was anyone other then ace I 100 percent wouldn't believe it- I mean really the odds of 15 20.s or bj in a row are staggering- my bed run ever was at bacc. Winning 120k and that was after only 13 player hands in a row starting with a 300 bet- Even the 9 card 21 in 19 years of playing blackjack I have never even seen a 9 card busy and that's surely more common. I'm sorry ace. You are a good guy/ axel thanks for adding so much to the thread. Wizard should really make you a mod- I'll add my vote

Ace I almost kinda feel bad for you losing the money. However like mentioned before whenever you see someone hit a 17 vs 8 and you cringe; well that is the same feeling we get with the SC. However I digress, I do not believe for a moment that you lost 15 hands in a row 2 times in 1 trip. Couple that with a 9 card 21 and losing every hand in every shuffle multiple times. Maybe you are counting a push as a loss? or not counting pushes at all? At this point I think your memory is being very selective.

Also what is the point of going to LV if you are not enjoying yourself? I understand that you are losing and that is playing a part in not enjoying yourself but it seems like you have no appreciation of the comps that you are receiving and can get. If you are not going to take advantage of everything that they will give you then why not just stay close to home and play at Revel or Tropicana or whatever you want to call it? Once you are inside a casino there is no difference whether you are in LV, AC, PA, or OH unless of course you are playing a game with bad rules but H17 or S17 apparently would make no difference to you since the dealers always get BJ or 20 already.

ETA: I know that you couldn't care less about how I feel but I wanted to give my opinion which I am entitled to. I am not like MS and wish that you go broke. I hope that are on the positive side of variance during your next session.

Today's low penetration BJ gives no edge to a player. Yes, sometimes anyone can win, but it has nothing to do with counting. Players like to believe in things which don't exist. A friend of mine would only bet if he saw dead animals on his way to AC.

Quote: strictlyAP

Wizard should really make you a mod- I'll add my vote

Apparently you have to be nice to people for that job, So that's a deal breaker.

He did mention something about me helping him with spelling and punctuation editing.

Quote: AxelWolf

He did mention something about me helping him with spelling and punctuation editing.

Funny!

Baccarat, if properly played, would never make you loose a lot of money. The secret of winning the game is to understand that on average there will be the same number "bank" and "player" per shoe. Singletons, two rows etc. is another crap players tend to believe in.

There was a great deal to be said for that casino in Reno that did not have a credit department; it was "bring what you are willing to lose". They never had to arrange for people to get their money from their own bank. If you had rotten luck they would buy you a drink but that was it. Your limit was yours to determine but once you determined it; that was it.

Lawyer counting cards, somehow it represents an intelegence level? 2+ 1, don't make a mistake here, it's 5. You are correct.

Quote: aceofspades

I am glad that my trip reports can become the catalyst for lively discussion and make it to the 40page mark. I respect people's opinions here but, I think everyone here, AP professionals included, should be arable to step back from the math and attempt to sympathize with a fellow member of the forum. yes...I vented quite a bit and put my emotional state out there. I know there is tough love but sometimes, your fellow forum members just need an ear and a "go get'em next time" pep talk

This isn't sympathy and I will not give you a "go get 'em", but I'll comment all the same.

Do. Not. Forget. This. Experience.

You'll get over this in time. The pain will fade, the loss of money will dilute. But for right now, live in it. Don't push it aside, don't try to get passed it, don't try to get over it. You will eventually, but for right now, bathe in the pain.

You need to remember this. Do so, and that $15k spent earned something. It earned safety, knowledge, insurance for the future.

Someone else commented about your posting history, how you always seemed to fall in a hole and heroically climb back out. I felt the same way. When I think AoS, that's what I think. Trip reports about overcoming adversity, almost impossibly frequent. I'm not questioning your integrity; your interactions with people here are all I need to believe those trips happened just as you said. Likewise, I don't doubt your epic fall happened just as you said, impossible odds or not.

So what I see is someone ten feet tall and bulletproof. As you fell 2-3-4k in the hole, I imagine I was thinking the same thing as you. "Who cares?" You always fall in a hole. The climb out will come, you just gotta keep playing.

But as you fell further and further, and your luck was nearly the bounds of impossibility, I saw a touch of masochism. Like if it's gonna hurt, I'm gonna make sure it hurts real bad. Like the boxer that knows he took some brain damage in the last round, but he's a warrior and he's gonna get back up and get back in it. Maybe he'll even persevere, but if he goes down, he'll go down fighting and damn the consequences. After all, you can't lose every hand, right?

Speed count, hi-lo, no count ploppy, none of that matters. You suffered what every player from the worst schlub to the best counter ever experiences. Your play does not matter. What matters is your mind frame. Your mind frame made you play when you were -$4k. Your mind frame kept you in it when you were -$8k. Your mind frame is what made you ignore that absolute shellacking and push that to -$12k. Your mind frame is what made you lose everything. And when you had nothing left, your mind frame is what made you find $2k more, and your mind frame made you lose that.

I'm not talking some supernatural "bad vibes". I'm talking self control. I'm talking fooling yourself. That thing that either made you self destructive (if it hurts, I'm gonna make it hurt bad), or that made you believe that you'd somehow climb out of this like you have every other time.

So remember this pain. Don't dare cheat yourself out of it. Live in it and soak it in so you never forget it. It sucks now, it's probably miserable. But remember it, and you can be sure you'll never put yourself in this position again. Remember it, and it's an insurance policy. Forget it, and it's $15k pissed away, with likely more to follow.

Chin up. Time to work =)

deleted

Ace, I'm not a bj expert but I think you've been given sound advice from the best bj players on WoV. The only thing I think I can add is---as your playing bankroll dwindled, without lowering your betting spread, your Risk of Ruin kept climbing. I think Kelly betting should have been in order.

Quote: Buzzard

Bob has appointed me as his representative. But I underestimated Aces probable loss by 2K. But then I am NOT Evenbob.

I admit I was wrong. Ace has indeed met Bob's expectations.

" Speed count, hi-lo, no count ploppy, none of that matters."

I beg to differ. Continue with the speed count and expect more of the same.

Quote: AxelWolf

Yes this is insane. Did you check your drinks for LSD (:
Its to bad you didn't get wasted or drugged and pass out like one of our members. Apparently this often leads to waking up with an unexplained extra 2K in your pocket (oh crap that's only on craps) And his ass may or may not have hurt for some reason.

I really hate to bring back the Pain, but I don't think anyone can really get the full scope of the lightning strike that has happened here.

Obviously there were some wins sprinkled in between, but this is a highlight of the unbelievable Losses you endured and lived to tell about.

This is not insane. He is spreading $100 - $500, playing basic strategy, not really counting, and is down less than $20k. It's a very bad couple of days. It's not crazy. Anyone who has played a lot of blackjack has experienced swings like this. Obviously he is listing his losing hands and not his winning hands (if his hands were all like this he would be down more than $20k by now). Some of the ways that he lost are crazy, but that doesn't cost extra money. You lose the same when the dealer pulls a 9-card 21 and you do on a 3-card 21, except that you don't get the story out of it (and the count doesn't go up as much!)

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This is not insane. He is spreading $100 - $500, playing basic strategy, not really counting, and is down less than $20k. It's a very bad couple of days. It's not crazy. Anyone who has played a lot of blackjack has experienced swings like this. Obviously he is listing his losing hands and not his winning hands (if his hands were all like this he would be down more than $20k by now). Some of the ways that he lost are crazy, but that doesn't cost extra money. You lose the same when the dealer pulls a 9-card 21 and you do on a 3-card 21, except that you don't get the story out of it (and the count doesn't go up as much!)

I have experienced runs like Ace had many times. Nothing he wrote is shocking or out of the ordinary to me.

Quote: rainman

I have experienced runs like Ace had many times. Nothing he wrote is shocking or out of the ordinary to me.

I think my shock is not losing a hand---it is the "dealer pulls a 9 on every 12 and I always pull a 10" type of disbelief

I have too, especially in sports betting. I lost a $3,000 bankroll in one month at $20 a game straight bets. Granted my stakes were far less but I was tempted to play both sides of a game just so I could cash a ticket. Yea I probably bet too many games, but still each game has a theoretical 50% chance of covering the spread.

Quote: sodawater

1. It's not fun, and Ace plays for fun. Blackjack is not Ace's career and he is not playing with an edge.

Previously I thought based on all the available evidence that he was playing with a slight edge. But if his spread is indeed $100-$500, then it's pretty close to even or negative in shoe games. In a S17 DD game that spread will probably get you a small edge. In the previous threads I had read he hadn't really given a straight answer as to his top bet.

Quote: aceofspades

Everything I was up for the year (12k) plus an additional 3k

You only brought $15K with you? That's madness for your betting level. My bet spread is (roughly) $25-$300 and I bring about that with me for a weekend trip to Vegas. You need to bring a lot more, or at least make sure your bank is ready to let you have more without the annoying phone calls and emails.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Previously I thought based on all the available evidence that he was playing with a slight edge. But if his spread is indeed $100-$500, then it's pretty close to even or negative in shoe games. In a S17 DD game that spread will probably get you a small edge. In the previous threads I had read he hadn't really given a straight answer as to his top bet.

Remember that he is using the speed count. I don't know how quickly he is ramping, or if he is using any basic strategy deviations along with the speed count, or even if he is played perfect basic strategy (everyone makes mistakes) so it's hard to get a precise answer. If there's an edge in the DD game it's probably insignificant.

Does he play all? With a 1-5 spread wonging should be employed at least in the six deck game.

Quote: Buzzard

Laying 6 to 1 Ace uses Speed Count on next trip.

He could not count at all and win the bet, you should have bet against him using High-Low.

Quote: 1BB

Does he play all? With a 1-5 spread wonging should be employed at least in the six deck game.

I thought it was all DD?

Wonging in DD is a hassle. I'll still take a bathroom break if it gets really bad, but I can't be up and down every 10 minutes. I play almost-all.

Maybe this video will make ACE feel a little better .... or maybe not

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/john-daly-gambling-away-55-110000595.html

Speed count it such a shit system anyway.

Speed count would have you count only the small cards and then subtract the number of players to get your (and i use this term very loosely) "running count."

You know what's easier than just counting the small cards? HIGH LOW!

When I see a queen with a 2 across the table, I don't even register it. It might not even exist. It's so easy to cancel out high and low cards that it becomes second nature. If someone has a 2-card 20 and the next player has two small cards, similarly, I can skip over those two hands without even thinking about it.

High low is so much easier than "speed count" and way more powerful.

Quote: sodawater

Speed count it such a shit system anyway.

Speed count would have you count only the small cards and then subtract the number of players to get your (and i use this term very loosely) "running count."

I thought you counted hands dealt and subtracted the number of high cards?

It doesn't matter, it's all nonsense anyway. I don't understand why you would look for this poorly-correlated 2nd-order effect when you can just count the number of cards that come out instead of counting the number of hands.

Advanced Speed Count: Just assume one high card and one low card per hand. So your count is always 0!