Vegas Vacation with AOS
About as good a definition of a LOSER as I have ever read !
Quote: kewljYou know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot. Earlier in my career, on another site, when I was still a little more emotional about the big swings, I posted about a particularly difficult downswing. One of the "math guys" responded just as you have above. Formulas and equations and estimated guesses at SD and came to the conclusion that the streak I had just experienced was likely to occur about 1.5% of the time. I never got how that helped me? It just did happen. I WAS that 1.5% of the time. (some body has to be). It just didn't make me feel any better knowing that what I just experienced was rare and unlikely. My bankroll was still down just the same.
Now figuring out the likelihood of such a losing period BEFORE hand or BEFORE a trip, that could be useful. Could help you prepare and determine what funds to bring. But AFTER the fact? I just don't see that as useful. Maybe you math guys just can't help yourselves. :)
It is interesting how 2 people can experience the exact same thing, and yet have 2 completely different views on what happened.
I can see why you may not have cared for the math analysis, and yet, to me, it was educational and provided support.
The way I looked at it, the money was gone. But knowing how unlucky, or unlikely it was to happen, helped me to realize it was more of a fluke.
Now, knowing you have a 9% chance of a loss like this I would find very important going forward
Barfarkel seemed to like it. He shared such statistics for every trip he made in his book "You've Got Heat!" Some do, some don't. I am on your side here, I never did this for my own trips. But AoS repeatedly expressed astonishment at how badly his trip went. Maybe these numbers will help sober him up a bit.Quote: KewljYou know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot.
Quote: RaleighCrapsIt is interesting how 2 people can experience the exact same thing, and yet have 2 completely different views on what happened.
I can see why you may not have cared for the math analysis, and yet, to me, it was educational and provided support.
The way I looked at it, the money was gone. But knowing how unlucky, or unlikely it was to happen, helped me to realize it was more of a fluke.
Now, knowing you have a 9% chance of a loss like this I would find very important going forward
To be fair, most 3rd parties probably appreciate the info. But waiting a bit longer to point it out might have been better for Ace. Not like he needs to know the math now. It's just as useful to him a couple days before his next trip. But then again, I think he was talking about going to AC this weekend...
Quote: tringlomaneTo be fair, most 3rd parties probably appreciate the info. But waiting a bit longer to point it out might have been better for Ace. Not like he needs to know the math now. It's just as useful to him a couple days before his next trip. But then again, I think he was talking about going to AC this weekend...
Indeed the information is interesting and educational--to know I had a less than 10% chance at what happened makes me feel warm
and fuzzy about accomplishing what only happens less than 10% of the time LOL
I am in AC
Just played ½ shoe picked up 1k
(Mods feel free to break off this AC portion if you feel it is not keeping with the title of the thread)
Quote: aceofspadesIndeed the information is interesting and educational--to know I had a less than 10% chance at what happened makes me feel warm
and fuzzy about accomplishing what only happens less than 10% of the time LOL
I am in AC
Just played ½ shoe picked up 1k
(Mods feel free to break off this AC portion if you feel it is not keeping with the title of the thread)
Wow, was that ever a lot to catch up with! I don't see any point, btw, in splitting this off NOW, though you're certainly welcome to start a new AoS in AC thread. You asked for my impressions:
I would say that, in all, you are very well cared about here by nearly everybody, even the sarcastic guy-jabs you got here and there. I think you are a great guy, and disarmingly honest, especially when someone gives you a jab or a shot, and you just smile it away with a disarming reply, to your credit. Most everything said was with the best intentions, and it appears you mostly took it that way, again to your credit.
I think that Dicenor bought one, correctly, and mickeycrimm, much as I love him, got away with one (with Missions' help - as I have also been guilty of providing a couple of times). Buzz also was correct in his self-implication but appears to still be in blue.
The part that has me concerned is the emotional involvement with the bad streaks (and, from other threads, the good streaks) that make you a virtual bi-polar player. I hate that, when it's going badly for you, there's a trigger point that tilts, chasing your losses into ruination. Some kind of sanity check mechanism might be in order, though there are those that disagree and want to carry a large BR. You can't. I did this to myself, and I would recommend it for you. Leave the money you're not willing to lose TODAY in the room safe, along with all your credit cards. Don't ever call the bank again. Allow yourself an ATM card with a low limit, like 1010 (to cover the service charge), and carry that to allow your tilt ONE LAST CHANCE; then you're done for that day, no matter what.
Might help smooth things out without totally frustrating your situation.
More in PM.
Babs darling, you know I always say don't take it personal. Why would I ever be suspended for pointing out the obvious? If Ace chooses to be a LOSER, that is his inalienable right.
| Decks | S17 | H17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 278,315,855 | 1 in 214,136,889 |
| 2 | 1 in 67,291,581 | 1 in 41,838,903 |
| 4 | 1 in 38,218,703 | 1 in 22,756,701 |
| 6 | 1 in 32,178,035 | 1 in 18,980,158 |
| 8 | 1 in 29,749,421 | 1 in 17,394,420 |
Quote: Buzzard
Babs darling, you know I always say don't take it personal. Why would I ever be suspended for pointing out the obvious? If Ace chooses to be a LOSER, that is his inalienable right.
How is it that Buzzard continues to get away with this?? I guess I just don't understand the rules. This clearly is just mean-spirited.
Quote: WizardI heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.
Decks S17 H17 1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889 2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903 4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701 6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158 8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
I believe it was S17 6D
Quote: kewljHow is it that Buzzard continues to get away with this?? I guess I just don't understand the rules. This clearly is just mean-spirited.
+1. How is calling somebody a loser repeatedly in all caps not a personal attack?
Quote: BuzzardIf Ace chooses to be a LOSER, that is his inalienable right.
Quote: BuzzardAbout as good a definition of a LOSER as I have ever read !
That is a personal insult if I've ever seen one. That something appears obvious to you is no excuse. You should have learned this when you got suspended the last time for the DUMB blonde insult.
It pains me to do it, because I know you're a nice guy, but as your third offense your sentence is seven days.
Quote: aceofspadesQuote: WizardI heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.
Decks S17 H17 1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889 2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903 4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701 6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158 8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
I believe it was S17 6D
I had seen where it was one in 2,200,000. But perhaps this is just a 9-card total where the dealer stands on 21 OR LESS.
Quote: GreasyjohnI had seen where it was one in 2,200,000. But perhaps this is just a 9-card total where the dealer stands on 21 OR LESS.
For 21 or less, under 6D S17, the probability is 1 in 6,782,912.
Quote: WizardFor 21 or less, under 6D S17, the probability is 1 in 6,782,912.
Thanks. Well at least I had the commas in the right places.
I knew you were a smart guy with good tast, that's My favorite steak house as well. I tell everyone that is looking for a good steak house in Vegas that's the one. They have a noodle beef appetizer thing, that is the best. I don't know what its called, do you? I do find it a bit unsettling that the guy hovers and scraps the crumbs off the table every few minutes.Quote: aceofspadesYeah I had planned to go on the High Roller...the Mob Museum...see David Copperfield...try the Lion's Share...and eat at my favorite restaurant in the world Delmonico steakhouse at the Venetian...meet up with the Gronks...and none of that occurred because I deprive myself when losing
Quote: WizardFor 21 or less, under 6D S17, the probability is 1 in 6,782,912.
I wish I had a $.01 side bet at true odds
Quote: AxelWolfI knew you were a smart guy with good tast, that's My favorite steak house as well. I tell everyone that is looking for a good steak house in Vegas that's the one. They have a noodle beef appetizer thing, that is the best. I don't know what its called, do you? I do find it a bit unsettling that the guy hovers and scraps the crumbs off the table every few minutes.
I do not recall the noodle appetizer but my all time favorite are the parmesan truffle potato chips (served warm) -- simply amazing
Proof?Quote: Wizard
It pains me to do it, because I know you're a nice guy
Quote: WizardI heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.
Decks S17 H17 1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889 2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903 4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701 6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158 8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
So Ace lost 15 hands in a row, twice, each at 40,000 to 1, and then also lost to a 9-card 21, at 32 MILLION to 1, all in the same trip?
Quote: sodawaterQuote: WizardI heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.
Decks S17 H17 1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889 2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903 4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701 6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158 8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
So Ace lost 15 hands in a row, twice, each at 40,000 to 1, and then also lost to a 9-card 21, at 32 MILLION to 1, all in the same trip?
Sodawater you know me and you know I have no reason to lie
Quote: aceofspadesRetrieved 4k so far in AC
Good job! And repeating my usual line...if you are at the Revel, get the money in cash before the cage doesn't have enough to cash your chips.
Quote: BozGood job! And repeating my usual line...if you are at the Revel, get the money in cash before the cage doesn't have enough to cash your chips.
Always Boz :-)
Quote: WizardThat is a personal insult if I've ever seen one. That something appears obvious to you is no excuse. You should have learned this when you got suspended the last time for the DUMB blonde insult.
It pains me to do it, because I know you're a nice guy, but as your third offense your sentence is seven days.
Buzz is in fact, a nice guy, and very funny, and doesn't mean ANY of it to be taken seriously. It doesn't always come off that way. Sorry, Buzz; see you in a week.
Quote: aceofspadesQuote: sodawaterQuote: WizardI heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.
Decks S17 H17 1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889 2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903 4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701 6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158 8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
So Ace lost 15 hands in a row, twice, each at 40,000 to 1, and then also lost to a 9-card 21, at 32 MILLION to 1, all in the same trip?
Sodawater you know me and you know I have no reason to lie
I don't think you're lying at all. I just think you are mis-remembering. It's easy how a 7-card dealer 21 becomes a 9-card dealer 21 if you forget the specifics.
That's obvious but for arguments sake I said 50/50. He said he lost 15 in a row no pushes involved. He also did this like 2 times. I would like to know the odds if the dealer getting 20 21 or BJ like they did on him and lose them all. I would like to know the odds of losing 15 hands in a row 2 times for the approximate amount of hands he played.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBlackjack isn't really that close to 50/50. Closer to 40/50/10. I'm not sure if he is counting pushes or not. Either way, 15 in a row is not that rare of an event. Obviously a lot depends on the speed of your game, and whether you ignore pushes or not, but it's more frequent than once every 1000 hours. In other words, if you play a decent amount, it will happen to you eventually.
I've never actually counted my consecutive losses so I don't know if I've ever gotten that high. It doesn't matter anyway; the game is about winning money, not winning hands.
Is not how much he lost that's rare, its how he lost that is out of the ordinary.
If anyone can prove they lost 15 hands on BJ, Bac, roulette even money bets played correctly, I will gift them something. No online and no scoreboard scouting.
Quote: AxelWolf
If anyone can prove they lost 15 hands on BJ, Bac, roulette even money bets played correctly, I will gift them something. No online and no scoreboard scouting.
The most number of hands I have lost in a row at any ~even game without a push is 8. And I thought that was a lot.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's obvious but for arguments sake I said 50/50. He said he lost 15 in a row no pushes involved. He also did this like 2 times. I would like to know the odds if the dealer getting 20 21 or BJ like they did on him and lose them all. I would like to know the odds of losing 15 hands in a row 2 times for the approximate amount of hands he played.
Is not how much he lost that's rare, its how he lost that is out of the ordinary.
If anyone can prove they lost 15 hands on BJ, Bac, roulette even money bets played correctly, I will gift them something. No online and no scoreboard scouting.
I am not sure ARIA will release the surveillance tapes
Quote: 1BBWere there any double downs or splits in those 30 hands?
Yes there was a 3,3 split and two doubles one on a 9 another on an 11
Quote: AxelWolfProof?
I've met Buzz personally, at least twice.
I was not talking about you. I was really referring to all the guys who claim 20 bankers or players or reds, evens/odds... bla, bla, bla.Quote: aceofspadesI am not sure ARIA will release the surveillance tapes
My Mom meet Kenneth Bianchi, she said he was a nice guy ;)Quote: WizardI've met Buzz personally, at least twice.
Quote: AxelWolfI knew you were a smart guy with good tast, that's My favorite steak house as well. I tell everyone that is looking for a good steak house in Vegas that's the one. They have a noodle beef appetizer thing, that is the best. I don't know what its called, do you? I do find it a bit unsettling that the guy hovers and scraps the crumbs off the table every few minutes.
I liked Delmonico, but I prefer Craftsteak at MGM.
Quote: sodawaterThe most number of hands I have lost in a row at any ~even game without a push is 8. And I thought that was a lot.
Really? How much have you played?
If you lose 50% of your hands, then every time you don't lose a hand, there is a 1/32768 chance that you will lose your next 15. The hands aren't quite independent (losses are negatively correlated with future losses) so let's round it to 1 in 33,000.
That is not that unlikely. Someone who plays a lot should see it several times.
Table 1--10 hands
Table 2--10 hands
Table 3--10 hands
These things happen in real life -- improbable does not equal impossible
They are doing their $1million spin the wheel promo where can you win anywhere from $75 slot play to $1million cash
The final drawing was at 7pm
I was in the restroom off the casino floor when they apparently called my name for the 7pm million dollar drawing -- too bad the announcement was not broadcast over all speakers
I'm always here and I wait for these drawings and because you can't hear it in the bathroom I got F'd over
Now, back to AOS. I have said before in this thread, so at the risk of repeating, I believe some of the extreme things that AOS reported are selective memory. That is a common occurrence with gambling results. It's not intentional and it doesn't make you a liar, but you tend to remember the bad more clearly and longer than the good. 8 losses, a win and 2 pushes, easily seems like a dozen straight losses, especially when the pushes happen with your 20's and 21, with the dealer pulling multi-card hands. They are remembered as losses.
The other thing that I said, that I am going to re-visit, is AOS, you are displaying some very classic, red flag, warning signs. Losing more money than you brought and intended to lose on a trip is one. Scheduling a second trip before your first bad losing trip is even complete is another red flag for a casual player. This idea that you have recouped a portion of your previous loss is yet another. These last two fall under the category of 'chasing losses'. You aren't recouping losses. You just reset. That is your new beginning point and you move forward.
I wish you well AOS, but I can't help being concerned and at least pointing this out to you.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceReally? How much have you played?
If you lose 50% of your hands, then every time you don't lose a hand, there is a 1/32768 chance that you will lose your next 15. The hands aren't quite independent (losses are negatively correlated with future losses) so let's round it to 1 in 33,000.
That is not that unlikely. Someone who plays a lot should see it several times.
I don't really play any game that has a 50% chance or more of losing a hand.
Blackjack would be the game I play that has the highest chance to lose any given hand -- it has a 49.1 percent chance of losing the next hand. 49.1%^15 = 1/43,030
43,030 is a lot of hands of blackjack. The tables I play tend to be full, since I don't play high limits. According to https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/136/ , a blackjack table with 6 total players gets 60 hands per hour.
43,030 = 717.17 hours of blackjack. That's a lot! I definitely haven't played 717.17 hours of blackjack in my life. Has Ace played 717 hrs of blackjack? Ace probably plays at less crowded tables than me...but has he played 500 hours? I am sure a lot of forum members who are pros have played many times this, of course.
I mainly play poker so maybe my view of rarity is skewed toward that game.
Quote: aceofspadesIf everyone recalls, there was a time at revel where I lost as follows:
Table 1--10 hands
Table 2--10 hands
Table 3--10 hands
These things happen in real life -- improbable does not equal impossible
30 hands in a row? I have trouble believing that one.
Quote: kewljI haven't met Buzz, but I will take Wiz and Babs word that he is a nice guy. I really don't doubt that he his. But to just keep repeatedly responding with reference of LOSER in the same thread to the same members, is BAD behavior. And even more bizarre, is that he kept making reference to the fact that he was getting away with it. I am not a psychologist, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but it seemed like he was trying to push the envelope. Like a baseball manager, coming out to argue a call. You argue, you get in the umps face. If that doesn't get you thrown out, you kick dirt on home plate.
Reminds me of Evenbob, he enjoys the scrafndale (sp?) that many users seem to enjoy as well during a bad run. Somebody wrote a post about many gamblers and casino employees jealous of APs because the APs were able to parlay their knowledge into a career which makes them money, while the gamblers and casino employees were unable to do so and become bitter or join the dark side. Maybe this applies for someone like ace who plays at a much higher level then we all do.
The crabs in a bucket syndrome is in full effect for gamblers. Make a thread about losing, and watch people come out of nowhere to enjoy your misfortunes. It could feel like a Mustang is coming at you from all sides but you have to soldier on through if you wanna make it in this business.
Quote: djatcReminds me of Evenbob, he enjoys the scrafndale (sp?) that many users seem to enjoy as well during a bad run. Somebody wrote a post about many gamblers and casino employees jealous of APs because the APs were able to parlay their knowledge into a career which makes them money, while the gamblers and casino employees were unable to do so and become bitter or join the dark side. Maybe this applies for someone like ace who plays at a much higher level then we all do.
The crabs in a bucket syndrome is in full effect for gamblers. Make a thread about losing, and watch people come out of nowhere to enjoy your misfortunes. It could feel like a Mustang is coming at you from all sides but you have to soldier on through if you wanna make it in this business.
Yep plenty of members who never post when I write about a winning trip but came out of the proverbial woodwork herein
Quote: AxiomOfChoice30 hands in a row? I have trouble believing that one.
What if you went to 10 different tables and lost the first 3 hands at each table? What if you went to 30 different tables and lost the first hand at each one?
I HAVE NO REASON TO LIE
Quote: aceofspadesWhat if you went to 10 different tables and lost the first 3 hands at each table? What if you went to 30 different tables and lost the first hand at each one?
I HAVE NO REASON TO LIE
The point is it can't happen. 30 blackjack losses in a row without a push is impossible. Doesn't matter how many tables you break up the hands into.
This gets silly really fast when people use "selective memory" as a term of Art for "liar"
As such, do not call yourself an AP without an income tax return showing you are a professional gambler or link to a video of you using your counting technique in a casino---otherwise, I believe you have selective memory as well
Quote: aceofspadesSince it seems people doubt the veracity of my claims---I am issuing a blanket policy of not believing any claims made by these players. How do I know you actually use a hi/Lo, zen count, side counts, etc. Merely because you know the terminology Nd the math is not proof. I will need documentary evidence that you even count or are an AP
This gets silly really fast when people use "selective memory" as a term of Art for "liar"
As such, do not call yourself an AP without an income tax return showing you are a professional gambler or link to a video of you using your counting technique in a casino---otherwise, I believe you have selective memory as well
Ace, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
You have claimed the following:
1. 15 hands of blackjack lost in a row: 43,000 to 1.
2. 15 hands of blackjack lost in a row on the same trip as (1) : 43,000 to 1.
3. A 9-card dealer 21 on a 6D S17 game on the same trip as (1) and (2): 32.178 million to 1
4. 30 (!) hands of blackjack lost in a row without a push: 1,851,634,380 to 1 -- that's 1.85 billion to 1.
Cumulative probability of all these things happening: 1 in 1.102 x 10^25
I am sorry but this is impossible. Again, I don't think you are lying. I just think you have a selective memory. There is a difference. I do not think you intend to deceive us. I just think your memories are not accurate.
