Brand New Counter - $40,000 bankroll - What should be my bet spread and at what table minimum?
Quote: stabworldbut the majority of the bankroll is a combination of a 20K 0% balance transfer I took out from a credit card and a ROTH IRA balance
So if you lose is your plan bankruptcy?
For example, everyone's ROR or win rate is not the same, even at the same table. That's why we can only ballpark a lot of your questions. The software will consider many things tailored to you and only you. Some variables that you can enter are the count used, spread, number of players at the table, hands per hour, rules, penetration, one spot or two and on and on. It's good stuff by a good and knowledgeable guy.
Quote: stabworldAxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?
in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..
Where do you get 2%? I estimate your ROR as between 20 and 40%. Specifically, 40% for the 8-deck game you mentioned earlier, since you know no indices and I assume a lack of aggressive wonging. It could be lower if you learned more and attacked a different game, but 2% is absolutely wrong for practical purposes. If you want to assume your ROR is less than 5%, you are heading into treacherous waters. 2% ROR is what a computer would have with your spread with decent penetration, because it makes no mistakes, bets optimally, uses indices, and wongs.
Quote: tilt247I would just like to add Foxwoods is a SWEAT SHOP. You may be able to survive a bit playing the h17 games, but don't dare venture into the high limit rooms and play. You will have to do alot of wonging whether you like it or not. short sessions at each table / pit. Other than that, everyone else pretty much gave you what you need other than telling you expect to be backed off at Foxwoods if you don't wong out frequently.
It's because of the deep penetration although the Newport Room has always been tough. I was backed off there once when I had only reached half my spread. Another time, I was flat bet for excessive wonging out. When everyone leaves the table, the procedure is for the dealer to spread the cards and shuffle when someone new sits down. Not for me. They would leave the partially dealt negative shoe in anticipation of my return. They would also raise the minimums to $100 knowing that I wouldn't play.
Quote: stabworld.. and it seems like it may be harder to count at this game because of the cards dealt down..
Do you think this game is beatable and countable.?
The game is playable and dealing it down will not effect you because you will see all the cards anyway. Depending on the dealer the penetration is fair as you may have seen they use a tab on the discard tray for the cut card. Some dealers are more liberal with this than others.
My advice is to stay away from this game until you know exactly what you are doing. You can lose a lot of money very quickly playing this game. When I started I thought that I was 100 percent accurate in count, knew all index plays ect..... I was wrong but learned my lessons at a full $15 dollar table spreading 1-5 until things slowed down. The $15 game you are able to enter mid shoe so as to maximize your profits. Once you are accurate you can try to make money at this but until you are 100% you will still be playing a losing game.
I recommend the same as everyone else:
1. Know basic strategy
2. Invest in some software and know how to use it.
3. get a green chip membership and mine old posts for excellent information.
4. use a level one count when starting
Quote: stabworldI do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?
(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..
I think that $15 to $400 should be doable, if you do it right.
But, honestly, you should be fine with a $25 "minimum bet", because, really, your actual minimum bet should be 0. If playing shoe games, you need to wong out aggressively.
I would prefer a higher max than $400 though. Note than 2x$300 has about the same bankroll requirements as 1 hand of $400. (I'm not sure if you meant that you would play 1x$400 or 2x$200 when you referred to your "$400 max bet).
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI think that $15 to $400 should be doable, if you do it right.
But, honestly, you should be fine with a $25 "minimum bet", because, really, your actual minimum bet should be 0. If playing shoe games, you need to wong out aggressively.
I would prefer a higher max than $400 though. Note than 2x$300 has about the same bankroll requirements as 1 hand of $400. (I'm not sure if you meant that you would play 1x$400 or 2x$200 when you referred to your "$400 max bet).
I don't know a $15 -$400 is a pretty ballzy spread 1-26..thats sure to catch attention from the pit..don't you think? Maybe if i'm playing 2 hands at $200 a piece..it wouldnt be as bad...
Quote: stabworldI don't know a $15 -$400 is a pretty ballzy spread 1-26..thats sure to catch attention from the pit..don't you think? Maybe if i'm playing 2 hands at $200 a piece..it wouldnt be as bad...
It all just depends on what you can get away with. You will find that at some places, it's busy or the pit is distracted and the dealer couldn't give two shakes, so you can spread to whatever you want and then GTFO at the end of the shoe. If you sit there for 2 hours, eventually someone is going to take notice.
Short sessions are the name of the game these days, when it comes to basic card counting... Get the big money down when you have the edge and move on to the next joint before they know what's going on.
I went into this session with the mindset of keeping a min bet regardless of the count because its for practice purposes.. but i couldnt resist spreading once the count got that high.. i didnt do too bad (even though I know this is just a short term win and cannot expect the same results all the time)... I profited $140 for the session with a $200 buy in.. i pocketed $125 in green chips in between the 2nd and 3rd shoe.. but I think the dealer took notice and alerted the pit.. the pit came by to glance at my chip stack..and mumbled something like ok he pocketed..then typed something in the computer.. i could be paranoid - but that is what it seemed like...
I lost the count a few times.. using the hi-lo count.. but wasnt off by much when i picked it back up using my last known number... You really have to have a good attention span..its very hard to keep a count... but i dont think i did too bad.. i was trying to block out eveyting else.. and just stay focused on the count... it was a little hard with this moron to the right of me who kept slamming the table everytime he lost and was verbally complaining eveytime he lost.. all in all it was a fun experience.. i def have to study the index plays however... I do know some experienced counters posted saying I should prob use the KO count as it might be easier..but I felt pretty comfortable using the Hi/Lo count.. the division of the remaining decks into the running count to get the true count.... comes natural for me..wasnt that hard..
Looking forward to my next practice session..
They do it for multiple reasons:
-They want to keep lower denomination chips on the table for other people to be able to use.
-They can make easier note of how much you are leaving the table with.
-It's easier for you to carry around a few large denominations chips rather than a ton of small ones.
Quote: stabworldOk, so just played my 1st real practice session (really 2nd session, but first session was not even a full shoe..got annoyed by the smoke and got up).. played roughly 1 to 1 1/2 hours.. played 3 shoes from start to finish..actually wonged out the last shoe with 1 and half decks remaining due to a extremely low negative count.. penetration was unbelievable..85-90% on all 3 shoes! $10 min table.. bet the min 90% of the hands..but when the count got up to around +10 +11 +12 even +14 +15 on some rounds..Towards the end of the 2nd shoe i played..i was betting $30 and $40..
I went into this session with the mindset of keeping a min bet regardless of the count because its for practice purposes.. but i couldnt resist spreading once the count got that high.. i didnt do too bad (even though I know this is just a short term win and cannot expect the same results all the time)... I profited $140 for the session with a $200 buy in.. i pocketed $125 in green chips in between the 2nd and 3rd shoe.. but I think the dealer took notice and alerted the pit.. the pit came by to glance at my chip stack..and mumbled something like ok he pocketed..then typed something in the computer.. i could be paranoid - but that is what it seemed like...
I lost the count a few times.. using the hi-lo count.. but wasnt off by much when i picked it back up using my last known number... You really have to have a good attention span..its very hard to keep a count... but i dont think i did too bad.. i was trying to block out eveyting else.. and just stay focused on the count... it was a little hard with this moron to the right of me who kept slamming the table everytime he lost and was verbally complaining eveytime he lost.. all in all it was a fun experience.. i def have to study the index plays however... I do know some experienced counters posted saying I should prob use the KO count as it might be easier..but I felt pretty comfortable using the Hi/Lo count.. the division of the remaining decks into the running count to get the true count.... comes natural for me..wasnt that hard..
Looking forward to my next practice session..
Good job at winning. I'm glad to read you didn't go crazy and blast away with huge bets, especially if you are losing the count sometimes. I would recommend the KO count for someone who is almost perfect at strategy, and/or is beginning to count for the first time. I would not recommend it for someone somewhat proficient at counting and ready to learn indices. If you are 100% proficient at basic strategy, and you are comfortable enough with hi-lo that you think it will eventually get easier to maintain the count--or at least ballpark it on the rare occasion you have a lapse--then don't switch. You would rather learn indices with hi-lo than with KO because they are more powerful, and there is a vast amount of free information on hi-lo.
As for being spotted, paranoia plagues the newbie. You likely have nothing to worry about. As time goes on, you will be able to pick up on real signs that you are being noticed. It usually starts with body language, a hint of suspicion. Then people become discreetly interested in your play. Putting your info into the computer is routine, you will never have an inkling if they indicate you are counting in the computer.
Quote: stabworldOh - I would like to ask a question ... Do you have to color up with the dealer - when your ready to leave? Or can you decline? Do they do this just so they can log into the computer what you are leaving with (to see if you won or lost - keeping a win loss rate on your play)?
You don't have to (they are your chips; you can leave with them if you want), but what are you trying to accomplish by not coloring up?
Quote: stabworldOk, so just played my 1st real practice session (really 2nd session, but first session was not even a full shoe..got annoyed by the smoke and got up).. played roughly 1 to 1 1/2 hours.. played 3 shoes from start to finish..actually wonged out the last shoe with 1 and half decks remaining due to a extremely low negative count.. penetration was unbelievable..85-90% on all 3 shoes! $10 min table.. bet the min 90% of the hands..but when the count got up to around +10 +11 +12 even +14 +15 on some rounds..Towards the end of the 2nd shoe i played..i was betting $30 and $40..
I went into this session with the mindset of keeping a min bet regardless of the count because its for practice purposes.. but i couldnt resist spreading once the count got that high.. i didnt do too bad (even though I know this is just a short term win and cannot expect the same results all the time)... I profited $140 for the session with a $200 buy in.. i pocketed $125 in green chips in between the 2nd and 3rd shoe.. but I think the dealer took notice and alerted the pit.. the pit came by to glance at my chip stack..and mumbled something like ok he pocketed..then typed something in the computer.. i could be paranoid - but that is what it seemed like...
I lost the count a few times.. using the hi-lo count.. but wasnt off by much when i picked it back up using my last known number... You really have to have a good attention span..its very hard to keep a count... but i dont think i did too bad.. i was trying to block out eveyting else.. and just stay focused on the count... it was a little hard with this moron to the right of me who kept slamming the table everytime he lost and was verbally complaining eveytime he lost.. all in all it was a fun experience.. i def have to study the index plays however... I do know some experienced counters posted saying I should prob use the KO count as it might be easier..but I felt pretty comfortable using the Hi/Lo count.. the division of the remaining decks into the running count to get the true count.... comes natural for me..wasnt that hard..
Looking forward to my next practice session..
Sounds a lot like my early practice sessions. Definitely don't put any more money than that at risk if you are still losing the count.
Keeping the count with noise and other distractions is a skill that comes with practice :).
Also, I am jealous that the division comes easily to you. Maybe I gave up too early when I switched to unbalanced, but it was really difficult for me under realistic conditions.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
Quote: sabreThe OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
Honestly, that is true.
Quote: sabreThe OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
Oh, wow, I missed a lot of this thread. I need to go back.
But, regardless of where you got the money from, when the count goes bad, get the hell out.
Quote: stabworldAxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?
Sorry for the late reply.
Cover is a non-optimal play that people make to throw the casino off the scent. The problem is, most people are way to paranoid and employ way too much of it. The fact that it's non-optimal means that it eats into your earnings. If you were not being watched anyway it has the same effect as flushing money down the toilet, which I don't recommend.
The point is, you are not James Bond and this is not a bad spy movie. There is not an army of surveillance guys and pit personnel looking to find you and expose you. Just play as well as you can. When the count is good, bet big. When it it neutral, bet small. When it is bad, leave.
Quote:in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..
IMO this is a crazy amount of risk to take on, especially since you mentioned that this is basically more than all the money you have (it's all your retirement money, plus some loans that you have no way of paying back if you lose)
Quote: sabreThe OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
I did not see this in the thread. I would ask the OP to confirm it. I'd like to point out I have been urging the OP to not risk any of his bankroll at this point because of how unwise it would be to count without knowing how. However, if this statement is true, the OP does not have a bankroll. You absolutely cannot invest retirement and credit into a venture like this. Card counting would just be the excuse to fuel a gambling problem. You either have to grind out a tiny profit and put it directly into your ever increasing bankroll like I did, or you need to save up a bankroll before starting, like I think most people do.
Quote: SonuvabishI did not see this in the thread. I would ask the OP to confirm it. I'd like to point out I have been urging the OP to not risk any of his bankroll at this point because of how unwise it would be to count without knowing how. However, if this statement is true, the OP does not have a bankroll. You absolutely cannot invest retirement and credit into a venture like this. Card counting would just be the excuse to fuel a gambling problem. You either have to grind out a tiny profit and put it directly into your ever increasing bankroll like I did, or you need to save up a bankroll before starting, like I think most people do.
Yes, It is true - my 47k bankroll consists of -
1. 20k liquid cash in my checking account..gathered from a 0% balance transfer, which I won't have to pay back for 15 months
2. 27k tied up in a ROTH IRA invested in mutual funds and emerging market funds
I estimated my 27K in the ROTH IRA down to 20k to allow for bad market fluctuations but it could very well be a 35K accessible bankroll if the market has run good.
The money in the retirement fund is a backup bankroll if my 20K liquid cash runs out due to variance. I surely would not like to have to touch this money. I know this is not the most responsible way to build a bankroll - but due to my good credit and high credit limit - I utilized this strategy to build a decent size bankroll to allow myself the opportunity to make money counting cards. I'm looking at this as a business investment and not an excuse to gamble..
I don't see the difference between funding a blackjack bankroll in the way I have or simply having discretionary money to skew the results of or the outcome of a card counters career. Money is money regardless of how it is obtained. If math tells me that if I play perfect blackjack by playing all the indexes and counting to perfection with little or no errors, using the right spreads.. and sizing my bets to maintain a low rate of ruin..Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?
So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No Gamble.. No Future!
Thoughts? Feedback?
Quote: stabworldSo why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No gamble.. no future!
I thought you said you were a highly successful poker player?
Quote: Beethoven9thI thought you said you were a highly successful poker player?
Indeed I am. My poker playing..pays my bills.. I am not looking to count cards.. to pay bills as that is already taken care of through my poker playing...but rather to earn additional money to save for house, car, larger savings..etc...etc..
sidenote (I didn't use the exact words as you put it "highly successful poker player" that's a bit exaggerated making it sound like I'm full of my self or cocky.. which is not me .. I am very humbled and don't think I am better than anybody else..."
Quote: stabworldAren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?
So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer?
No, you are not guaranteed.....
I think a lot of the people who claim they have a 'bankroll' of $xx really do not.
I am guessing if you are unlucky enough to lose your liquid cash, then at that point you would re-evaluate the situation and opt NOT to access your retirement savings. At the point you have already lost the first $20k your risk of ruin for your retirement savings will have gone up substantially if you will be betting the same amounts.... and if you choose to halve your bets, then your expected hourly wages will be halved as well, possibly not even making it worth your while....
To me one of the hardest parts to this equation, are you willing to sit at a table for the necessary hours NOT tipping? If you are dropping a red for the dealers and a few whites for the cocktail waitresses, have you factored those costs into the equation?
Quote: SOOPOONo, you are not guaranteed.....
I think a lot of the people who claim they have a 'bankroll' of $xx really do not.
(not of those people, as it would be a waste of my time seeking advice on a fictitious bankroll)
I am guessing if you are unlucky enough to lose your liquid cash, then at that point you would re-evaluate the situation and opt NOT to access your retirement savings. At the point you have already lost the first $20k your risk of ruin for your retirement savings will have gone up substantially if you will be betting the same amounts.... and if you choose to halve your bets, then you r expected hourly wages will be halved as well, possibly not even making it worth your while....
To me one of the hardest parts to this equation, are you willing to sit at a table for the necessary hours NOT tipping?
(yes - I am as tight and cheap as they come -)
If you are dropping a red for the dealers and a few whites for the cocktail waitresses, have you factored those costs into the equation?
(no because I won't be tipping, and if I do it will be once in a blue moon with a bare minimum of $1 per dealer per playing session - hardly an expense that will significantly impact playing results) (I don't order drinks at a casino, I bring my own) (on the few occasions where I do order a drink, I tip from my pocket and not from my chips on the table as I don't want to skew my playing results as I keep logs of my poker play and will do the same for blackjack.)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou don't have to (they are your chips; you can leave with them if you want), but what are you trying to accomplish by not coloring up?
Well I am trying to accomplish - the pit not recording my wins - as this will be a tell tell sign over time that I am counting. Many Hours of play combined with a win rate is indicative of counting.
Quote: stabworldWell I am trying to accomplish...
Do you really gamble for a living? Based on some of the things you've said, it doesn't sound like it (although I could be wrong, of course).
Quote: Beethoven9thDo you really gamble for a living? Based on some of the things you've said, it doesn't sound like it (although I could be wrong, of course).
I play poker for a living.. I don't consider it gambling.. As I am not throwing a casino chip down on a number and hoping it hits.. I play a strategic based game which pays dividends long term if I am better skilled than the majority of my oppenents..
Quote: stabworldWell I am trying to accomplish - the pit not recording my wins - as this will be a tell tell sign over time that I am counting. Many Hours of play combined with a win rate is indicative of counting.
The term is ratholing. Simply putting chips in your pocket doesn't always fit the definition but your description clearly does. The pit does not like it and it can blow up in your face.
I suggest that you stop immediately. Thoroughly research ratholing and do not do it again until you fully understand it. It is a great way to soften your wins and enhance your losses. I cannot stress enough that it must be done properly and that every scenario is different.
Quote: stabworldWell I am trying to accomplish - the pit not recording my wins - as this will be a tell tell sign over time that I am counting. Many Hours of play combined with a win rate is indicative of counting.
This is not a good way to accomplish that. They will still record it. If they are wrong, they are just as likely to be wrong on the high side as the low side. After many sessions their errors should more or less cancel out and they should be more or less accurate. So it accomplishes nothing, other than making you stick out and making them dislike you (refusal to color up is extremely inconvenient for them as it means that fills are more frequent)
If you can occasionally rathole a few chips without getting caught, that works a lot better. "Without getting caught" is key.
Quote: stabworldI play poker for a living.. I don't consider it gambling..
Then you're really missing something.
And if you do hit ruin, you aren't losing $40,000, you are losing $20,000 of the bank's money and it's rapidly accruing interest. Oh and that $20,000 you borrowed from your retirement? You will have to account for it or pay massive tax penalties. So you lost that money, now have a very expensive loan, and a massive tax bill.
Don't delude yourself, you are not an AP blackjack player. Save up $40,000 on your own then you might have a chance.
Quote: ComplexEnigmaI'm not trying to be mean but this is an extremely idiotic decision. Doesn't matter how good you get at counting, how good of rules you find, and how ignorant the floor is, you will be playing a hugely negative EV game. After 20 days or whatever, that 0% cash advance isn't going to be 0% anymore. So now not only do you have to work to get the odds in your favor, you gotta overcome the cash advance interest rate which is generally terrible.
And if you do hit ruin, you aren't losing $40,000, you are losing $20,000 of the bank's money and it's rapidly accruing interest. Oh and that $20,000 you borrowed from your retirement? You will have to account for it or pay massive tax penalties. So you lost that money, now have a very expensive loan, and a massive tax bill.
Don't delude yourself, you are not an AP blackjack player. Save up $40,000 on your own then you might have a chance.
I agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.
Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.
Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.
Man I want $20,000 at 0% for 15 months. Stick it in a CD for a free $500. I'm not in with banking industry but I don't know why anyone would offer $20,000 cash loan for 0% for 15 months. After inflation the bank is taking a loss.
Quote: ComplexEnigmaQuote: AcesAndEightsI agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.
Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.
Man I want $20,000 at 0% for 15 months. Stick it in a CD for a free $500. I'm not in with banking industry but I don't know why anyone would offer $20,000 cash loan for 0% for 15 months. After inflation the bank is taking a loss.
Well he said it was a "balance transfer," so I don't know how that translates to cash (perhaps the OP can comment, if he would like). A lot of cards offer 0% balance transfers when you sign up as a promotional thing. So I guess you could take out the cash advance on one card, and transfer it over immediately. You would usually pay an up-front fee on the cash advance on the first card though, regardless of the APR.
I would guess that 0% loans are always a promotional thing, where they are hoping to get you to not adhere to the letter of the contract, and then hit you with enormous fees. I know a lot of those "0% for 6 months!" deals at shady furniture stores or car dealerships will back-charge you with an insane rate if you don't pay it off during the 0% period.
Quote: AcesAndEights
Well he said it was a "balance transfer," so I don't know how that translates to cash (perhaps the OP can comment, if he would like). A lot of cards offer 0% balance transfers when you sign up as a promotional thing. So I guess you could take out the cash advance on one card, and transfer it over immediately. You would usually pay an up-front fee on the cash advance on the first card though, regardless of the APR.
I have a credit card through a credit union that allows me to take cash advances with no fee (but there is interest accrued starting immediately - no grace period like purchases.) I can apply payments to it (such as with a 0% balance transfer offer) to make a negative balance, then as soon at the payment clears take a cash advance against that negative balance. No cash advance fee and also no interest since the balance was never positive. The only fee involved is sometimes a 3% or so balance transfer fee for the 0% card; sometimes you can get lucky and even find $0 fee 0% offers.
Quote: stabworldYes, It is true - my 47k bankroll consists of -
1. 20k liquid cash in my checking account..gathered from a 0% balance transfer, which I won't have to pay back for 15 months
2. 27k tied up in a ROTH IRA invested in mutual funds and emerging market funds
I estimated my 27K in the ROTH IRA down to 20k to allow for bad market fluctuations but it could very well be a 35K accessible bankroll if the market has run good.
The money in the retirement fund is a backup bankroll if my 20K liquid cash runs out due to variance. I surely would not like to have to touch this money. I know this is not the most responsible way to build a bankroll - but due to my good credit and high credit limit - I utilized this strategy to build a decent size bankroll to allow myself the opportunity to make money counting cards. I'm looking at this as a business investment and not an excuse to gamble..
I don't see the difference between funding a blackjack bankroll in the way I have or simply having discretionary money to skew the results of or the outcome of a card counters career. Money is money regardless of how it is obtained. If math tells me that if I play perfect blackjack by playing all the indexes and counting to perfection with little or no errors, using the right spreads.. and sizing my bets to maintain a low rate of ruin..Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?
So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No Gamble.. No Future!
Thoughts? Feedback?
Thoughts and feedback:
1) Your bankroll is $0.
2) You didn't build a bankroll. You are borrowing money to take to a casino. Anyone can get a promotional 0% APR balance transfer. I use them to pay off anything, in full, that would otherwise accrue interest in an amount greater than the fee over the promotional time period. They are not investment instruments or loans, this is a flagrant abuse..this is similar to what I recently talked a card-counting non-AP out of doing, which was easy, because he had already ruined his credit. I don't have a 20K IRA, but if I did--I guess I shouldn't judge that part. And with almost zero knowledge of card counting, you estimate there is a 2% chance you won't be able to pay it back (i.e. bankruptcy). I estimate up to 40%, and very realistically probably 20%. 1% is too high for this type of 'bankroll'. You must be able to afford to lose your entire bankroll. If you are willing to risk bankruptcy, there are no tax issues or legal issues, then perhaps you are making a life decision that you need to make--if that's the case, no one really has the perspective to give good advice. Just seems like you aren't in that type of situation, since you aren't a blackjack expert. I'm not a medical doctor--if I wanted to open my own medical practice, people may advise against it.
3) You are not guaranteed any amount of earnings over any duration. Long term? It sounds nebulous because it is.
I wish you the best and I am not trying to be a jerk. I don't wanna hear about someone ruining their life trying to count cards. Ultimately, you can do whatever you want. And people can give you whatever advice they want, and I'm not going to debate them. I just want to make it clear. I do not recommend this at all.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.
Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.
AcesandEights - Thank you for clarifying this and saving me the typing of having to explain.
Quote: Lemieux66I might be wrong, and I apologize to Stab if I am, but it sounds to me like either he is not a winning poker player or is just running awful. People who are winning steadily at poker don't just randomly want to take up new and highly risky things that often. I mean using 40k feels to me that there's a big number he lost that he wants to get back.
Lemieux66 - You are wrong and making an assumption based on I don't know what. But, I have netted a significant sum over the last few years playing poker and have been running extremely well over the last few months. The reason why I am trying to take up a new venture is explained in my previous posts.
Quote: sabreThen you're really missing something.
and that is?
Quote: ComplexEnigmaQuote: AcesAndEightsI agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.
Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.
Man I want $20,000 at 0% for 15 months. Stick it in a CD for a free $500. I'm not in with banking industry but I don't know why anyone would offer $20,000 cash loan for 0% for 15 months. After inflation the bank is taking a loss.
There is an upfront 4% transfer balance fee - so instead of owing $20,000 in 15 months - I will owe $20,800. The fee's usually vary from 0%-6%. The credit card company's are betting on that you dont pay the loan back on time - so they can hit you with ridiculously high APR interest rates.
Quote: SOOPOONot being silly here.... do you have health insurance?
Ok - Let me just say I appreciate all feedback and comments from everybody - especially those who have been giving me solid advice with betting spreads - table limits - rate of ruin etc. What is starting to bother me is that this thread has turned into my personal life story and how my bankroll was funded? -
I started this thread - to get advice on a good bet spread - table min - max bet - rate of ruin for my bankroll. Can we please stick to that? Thanks everyone!
I will answer the last question that is not pertaining to blackjack table situations - I have VA health insurance - as I am a veteran.
Quote: SonuvabishThoughts and feedback:
1) Your bankroll is $0.
2) You didn't build a bankroll. You are borrowing money to take to a casino. Anyone can get a promotional 0% APR balance transfer. I use them to pay off anything, in full, that would otherwise accrue interest in an amount greater than the fee over the promotional time period. They are not investment instruments or loans, this is a flagrant abuse..this is similar to what I recently talked a card-counting non-AP out of doing, which was easy, because he had already ruined his credit. I don't have a 20K IRA, but if I did--I guess I shouldn't judge that part. And with almost zero knowledge of card counting, you estimate there is a 2% chance you won't be able to pay it back (i.e. bankruptcy). I estimate up to 40%, and very realistically probably 20%. 1% is too high for this type of 'bankroll'. You must be able to afford to lose your entire bankroll. If you are willing to risk bankruptcy, there are no tax issues or legal issues, then perhaps you are making a life decision that you need to make--if that's the case, no one really has the perspective to give good advice. Just seems like you aren't in that type of situation, since you aren't a blackjack expert. I'm not a medical doctor--if I wanted to open my own medical practice, people may advise against it.
3) You are not guaranteed any amount of earnings over any duration. Long term? It sounds nebulous because it is.
I wish you the best and I am not trying to be a jerk. I don't wanna hear about someone ruining their life trying to count cards. Ultimately, you can do whatever you want. And people can give you whatever advice they want, and I'm not going to debate them. I just want to make it clear. I do not recommend this at all.
Sonuvabish - I hear what your saying. I still am not sure how you get a 40% - 20% rate of ruin? With a 40,000 bankroll - a min $25 bet - and $400 max bet - how can this be? Using the calculators - it is telling me around 2% risk of ruin. Remember - I will not be playing these limits until I have almost mastered card counting. I am currently in the practice mode. I am practicing at home - timing myself counting down a deck - 1 card at a time - 2 card pairs at a time - and will do 3 cards at a time soon. I am slowly but surely getting my feet wet at the tables playing a min bet of $10 and not deviating from that $10 bet - unless the true count gets above +12 where I am going up to $20 - $30 $40. I am currently studying the indexes.
