MANSOME: How to Win at Blackjack
September 7th, 2012 at 1:43:56 AM
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MANSOME spreading the Assume a 10 technique
MANSOME:EPISODE 33: How to Win at Blackjack
Five minutes of brainless advice and some big hooters. Catch the line: They're mine to touch, not yours.
Compare!
MANSOME:EPISODE 33: How to Win at Blackjack
Five minutes of brainless advice and some big hooters. Catch the line: They're mine to touch, not yours.
Compare!
September 7th, 2012 at 6:58:15 AM
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I've tried to watch some of those Mansomes, but I've never gotten past the first 15 seconds. They seem to be advice for 20 year olds, on how to appear to be 21.
A falling knife has no handle.
September 7th, 2012 at 7:05:52 AM
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Congratulations on having made the attempt.
I'd have my doubts about a Producer who sits in front of a Monte Carlo backdrop then provides a video shot with a back ground from Sam's Town and who introduces his book as containing coupons worth over a thousand dollars.
Never hit on 12?
I'd have my doubts about a Producer who sits in front of a Monte Carlo backdrop then provides a video shot with a back ground from Sam's Town and who introduces his book as containing coupons worth over a thousand dollars.
Never hit on 12?
September 7th, 2012 at 9:03:03 AM
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Hot Female Dealer over the Geeky Guy any day!Quote: pacomartin
Five minutes of brainless advice and some big hooters. Catch the line: They're mine to touch, not yours.
Compare!
Truth is, this is how most dealers tell new players how to play. I surveyed this in 1999 in Reno.
(Also how most players play the game, BS is just a foot note)
of course one should know there is a greater chance of the hole card being a 2-6 than a 10 value.
In the 1990s a few casino dealer's procedure guides also stated this.
I am going by memory on this, I thought that was just bad play back then.
A Dealer can not play the hand for the player but in Craps, tell the player when asked How to Play, to make a Pass Line bet (I have never heard a dealer to recommend the don't pass bet)
and when to hit or stay at BJ at 17 or higher and the dealer hole card is considered as a 10 value as being a common statement.
It would be interesting to see current dealers procedure guides and see if anything is actually said about this.
This would be under the customer service heading.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 7th, 2012 at 9:50:47 AM
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Quote: 7crapsHot Female Dealer over the Geeky Guy any day! Truth is, this is how most dealers tell new players how to play.
The Wizard did formally examine this strategy, and calculated a whopping house edge.
Quote: Wizard of Odds: Bad Strategy :Assume a ten in the holeFor this strategy I first figured out the optimal basic strategy under this assumption. If the dealer had an ace up, then I reverted to proper basic strategy, because the dealer would have peeked for blackjack, making a 10 impossible. This "assume a ten" strategy results in a house edge of 10.03%.
September 7th, 2012 at 10:32:35 AM
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A small problem is maybe 1 out of 100,000 Blackjack players even know what "house edge" is and what it even does to their bankroll after time.Quote: pacomartinThe Wizard did formally examine this strategy, and calculated a whopping house edge.This "assume a ten" strategy results in a house edge of 10.03%.
That leaves the other 999,999 believing in what they have seen or heard or both.
Try convincing 100 random BJ players to hit a 12 with the dealer showing a 2 upcard.
Does not matter what the math says,
they remember the feeling of busting when hitting their 12 way more than losing less by hitting.
The "losing less" concept is the most difficult concept to grasp empirically.
I would go out on a limb and say it is impossible to grasp for the average player.
September 7th, 2012 at 11:51:05 AM
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" Try convincing 100 random BJ players to hit a 12 with the dealer showing a 2 upcard."
Then there is the helpful dealer who advise hitting any stiff, because a 2 is the dealer's ACE.
Then there is the helpful dealer who advise hitting any stiff, because a 2 is the dealer's ACE.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:41:44 PM
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Quote: guido111The "losing less" concept is the most difficult concept to grasp empirically.
I would go out on a limb and say it is impossible to grasp for the average player.
I am not disagreeing, but sometimes I wonder why that is so difficult? The hands that you are more likely to win then lose are relatively rare, usually the correct strategy is almost intuitive. Very often the best strategy in these cases is to stand.
It's just the hands where you are more likely to lose than win that are difficult to know the best strategy. The difficulty is in choosing the lesser of some bad choices.
The rule to hit a hard 12 or 13 against dealer 2, does not mean you are now likely to win.
September 7th, 2012 at 5:12:48 PM
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I suspect players don't like to hit a 12 against a 2 or 3 because if they bust then it is their fault. However, if they stand, and the dealer beats them, then they can at least blame the dealer.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 7th, 2012 at 5:42:56 PM
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Quote: pacomartinThe rule to hit a hard 12 or 13 against dealer 2, does not mean you are now likely to win.
Not a 13. Not unless you're playing Spanish.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
September 7th, 2012 at 6:03:17 PM
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Quote: 24BingoNot a 13. Not unless you're playing Spanish.
or 'Switch' :-)
September 7th, 2012 at 6:07:06 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 7th, 2012 at 6:28:28 PM
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From my 1999 Reno survey, had to dig deep for this one, of 813 BJ players asked, about 10% (79) felt that way.Quote: WizardI suspect players don't like to hit a 12 against a 2 or 3 because if they bust then it is their fault. However, if they stand, and the dealer beats them, then they can at least blame the dealer.
The rest answered as below
Player 12 vs. Dealer 2 upcard
Question: How does the player play this and why?
The consensus back then, I am sure it still is the same from watching many YouTube BJvids,
was since 10 IS the most common card value,
one must assume the dealer showing a 2 upcard has a 12 total, the same as the player.
(Remember the average BJ player really is only so good at math to count to 21 and still many struggle at that)
That makes the chance of the player and dealer busting the same.
"Better the Dealer bust than the player"
and over half added, everyone wins when the Dealer busts. So always play so the Dealer has the chance to bust.
I heard this so many times I thought it was printed in some gift shop "How To Play 21" booklet...it may have been. I never did read one of those.
As to how many BS players there were of the 813, just 1.
A nice senior lady, (at Rail City) and she even showed me her small BS card but was very quick to add that she would never hit a 12 with the Dealer also having a 12.
I asked her how she knew the Dealer had a 12 when just a 2 was showing.
She was kind of surprised I asked her that. Her reply was something like
"Everyone knows you have to figure the Dealer has a 10 down, that makes it easy to play this game"
I gave her a hug, wished them all good luck at the table and that is all my memory serves me.
Summary,
IMO, the vast majority of BJ players play BJ figuring that the Dealers hole card is a 10.
And most could care less about BS and what the math says.
No one is going to sway public opinion.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 7th, 2012 at 7:26:08 PM
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Quote: WizardI suspect players don't like to hit a 12 against a 2 or 3 because if they bust then it is their fault. However, if they stand, and the dealer beats them, then they can at least blame the dealer.
If Paigowdan is the dealer, they are perfectly entitled to blame him. As long as they tip.
September 7th, 2012 at 7:29:10 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 7th, 2012 at 8:06:17 PM
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I might be going crazy, so I need somebody to watch this video, and pay attention to the hand that's being played behind Michael at about the 7:48 mark.........
September 7th, 2012 at 8:21:30 PM
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Quote: warrantyvoiderI might be going crazy, so I need somebody to watch this video, and pay attention to the hand that's being played behind Michael at about the 7:48 mark.........
Players dealt:
Five
Ace
Eight
Dealer Downcard
Five gets Three for Eight Total
Ace gets Seven for S18
Eight gets Three for 11
Dealer's Upcard is an Eight
Eight Hits for King = Eighteen-Stands
Soft 18 Incorrectly Stands
Eleven appears to correctly double = King for 21
Dealer flips a Five for Thirteen, Draws an Eight for 21, Clears ALL bets.
What the Hell?
It couldn't have been a dealer bet, either, because it would have pushed and she wouldn't have kept the bets together as the pushed dealer bet would be dropped.
Well, if you're ever at Sam's Town, make sure to watch that you are getting paid correctly. Good eye, WarrantyVoider.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 7th, 2012 at 8:38:58 PM
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Never hit on twelve! That's the cardinal sin! Never hit on twelve, never, ever!Quote: IbeatyouracesI waved off 12 vs 2 earlier in a +4 TC. Dealer flipped over a 4 for a total of 6, drew a 9 then 8 to bust. Then he paid me $550 :-)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
September 7th, 2012 at 9:23:23 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 7th, 2012 at 9:40:38 PM
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Quote: WizardI suspect players don't like to hit a 12 against a 2 or 3 because if they bust then it is their fault. However, if they stand, and the dealer beats them, then they can at least blame the dealer.
The decision to stand or hit is a decision, mathematically bearing equal weight. But psychologically for most people hitting is very different than standing.
Does it ever happen to you that a pretty dealer advises you to "assume the hole card is a 10"? Do you just smile, or do dealers sense that you are playing in a very deliberate fashion and not give you advice.
September 8th, 2012 at 6:04:12 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 8:05:02 AM
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I see that you are correct, good play on his part. That is one of the exceptions to the Wizard's mini-chart, which I have memorized.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/
Soft 18 hits v. Dealer 8
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/
Soft 18 hits v. Dealer 8
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 8th, 2012 at 8:15:46 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 8:27:06 AM
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I certainly concede the point. I was just saving face by pointing out that my BJ play is based on something. I think it's something about the Colors, but in the rare event I am in doubt, I can briefly close my eyes and picture that chart perfectly.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 8th, 2012 at 10:53:10 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 11:20:41 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesIts a good starting point. Once you learn the very basic plays, you can start adding in the tougher plays.
Just as a counter doesn't have to learn every index numer right away. Start with the ones closest to zero and once learned, move to +1, +2, +3, and so on.
Translation " learn to walk before you run" GREAT ADVICE
September 8th, 2012 at 4:20:14 PM
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IBeatYourAces,
Just out of curiosity, at what +/- counts would it be advantageous to hit rather than stand a S17? Let's say six-deck shoe and we are halfway through it.
Just out of curiosity, at what +/- counts would it be advantageous to hit rather than stand a S17? Let's say six-deck shoe and we are halfway through it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 8th, 2012 at 4:26:36 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 5:08:51 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesI'd need a specific hand and up card to answer.
Same thing, A-7, dealer up-card: Eight
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 8th, 2012 at 5:13:09 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 5:15:57 PM
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Yes, I see the typo in my previous post where I meant to say S18.
Thanks, btw, I'll remember that one. It will be the first one on my, "Except..." list deviating from Wizard's simple BS.
Thanks, btw, I'll remember that one. It will be the first one on my, "Except..." list deviating from Wizard's simple BS.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 8th, 2012 at 5:29:39 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2012 at 5:39:29 PM
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Though absolutes are few in number, that is a beautiful aspect of them, they are absolutely easy to remember.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 11th, 2012 at 12:03:25 AM
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Quote: pacomartinMANSOME spreading the Assume a 10 technique
MANSOME:EPISODE 33: How to Win at Blackjack
Five minutes of brainless advice and some big hooters. Catch the line: They're mine to touch, not yours.
Compare!
God damn it, I didn't read the whole post. Spend 13 minutes watching the Wiz espouse solid strategy, waiting for the moment where his words would be twisted into "assume a 10" or other. Didn't realize that was the "compare" link. Don't need to watch the other one, although it's loading.
I do have to say, the Wiz suffers from a case of "unnecessary talking with the hands." I think that if I were ever on camera I would do the same. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Maybe work on that for your next vid (I know this one is almost 2 years old).
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
September 11th, 2012 at 12:19:24 AM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsI do have to say, the Wiz suffers from a case of "unnecessary talking with the hands." I think that if I were ever on camera I would do the same. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Maybe work on that for your next vid (I know this one is almost 2 years old).
Actually the Wiz. did improve on this sort of thing in later videos, go to his w. o. odds site and click on the link upper right to see them. But he is much better on the radio.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
