Will the D'Alembert produce a win on a 50/50 game of chance?
Quote: IbeatyouracesBaccarat is not 50/50, nor is it close to it.
You will win about 49% of yer placed bets at the baccarats, hey hey.
Ya don't worry about 1% that certainly wont ad up to much, its ONLY 1%Quote: soxfanYou will win about 49% of yer placed bets at the baccarats, hey hey.
Quote: scepticusThe purpose of my post was to ask how anyone can prove the result of an uncertain future event with certainty. Probability Theory is only a tool to be used and cannot prove or disprove anything on it's own .
Shot across the bow by scepticus…..nice post.
Quote: guido111
"Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest "
"Lie la lie. Lie la lie la la la la..."
Thanks for the earwig. One of my favorites. Have to go get out the guitar now...
Quote: djatcAll these bac posts and "system" posts and not one that works. I'll give someone 99% of my winnings at bac if they give me a system that shows a mathematical advantage, and I'll go to any casino in Las Vegas and go play it until my eyes bleed or the host gives me Superbowl tickets next year with a personal guarantee he'll pay off whoever plays the Seahawks to throw the game just for me.
Hello, djatc, I trust all is well with you.
Your commentary bears responding to because it is reflective of so many of our esteemed forum members, so, for that reason, I thank you for your post.
You see, djatc, I could not ever "give you a system that shows a mathematical advantage" that you could "play until your eyes bleed", for I haven't any such thing. And, frankly, I, too, am of the opinion that none exists.
Now, does that statement run contrary to all I've been espousing right here in this forum (and others)? I should think not. Read on, my friend:
For all implications and intentions, you would like a "mechanical system" (two words that do not resonate well with me) that you could utilize in order to make money at this game. To which I respond: ain't gonna happen.
And you're seeking such from me (or any like player) because you're under the misconception that it might be what I (or any like player) might be utilizing in order to make money at this game. Well, my friend, nothing could be further from the truth of it.
I do not play any "system", and I do not play "mechanically" (read: robotic).
I couldn't begin to teach you my method of Baccarat play, at least not without you having some vast experience at real play of this game, any more than any master conductor could teach how to lead an orchestra to anyone that couldn't even read music. Either one would prove nothing more than a lesson in futility.
How do I teach you to read a shoe as I?
How do I teach you to record a shoe as I do?
How do I teach you how to manipulate your bet sizes as your variance shifts?
How do I teach you to learn to anticipate current trend changes BEFORE they actually/fully occur?
How do I teach you the optimum moment to exit a shoe/session?
How do I teach you to win over the long term?
Lastly, djatc, I surely wish that I myself had at my disposal a "system that shows a mathematical advantage". I, too, would "play it until my eyes bleed".
Alas, to my knowledge, none exists. And that happens to be a good thing, for if one did actually exist, then this game, as we know it, would not.
Rather, my advantage lies within my experience, my ability to read a shoe, my knowledge of variance and my MM that is tailored around it, and my conservative exit strategies. All in my head. And I've no practical way to get you in on the inside.
Sorry. My posts, those that reference my Baccarat approaches and methodologies, will simply have to suffice for those that are interested. Those that are not will, I'm afraid, continue to seek the "mechanical Holy Grail system". Good luck with that.
Hello GR8, now I am all confused, you posted here on the WoV that you had a bet selection that returned a 52-53% win rate and even went sofaras to suggest we go and find such a beast. Now yo say you do have it, disapointing I must say. What else did you, do you invent?Quote: gr8playerYou see, djatc, I could not ever "give you a system that shows a mathematical advantage" that you could "play until your eyes bleed", for I haven't any such thing. And, frankly, I, too, am of the opinion that none exists.
My bet selection process had me hitting at a better-than 53% rate. (I said "had" because my last trip, this past Thursday night/Friday, my strike rate was at a minus 4...roughly 46%. Hey, play this game long enough, you'll see days where all your 8s are getting eaten up by 9s.)
I'm still very comfortable, both with my strike rates and my method of play. Why? Because, RolexWatch/Egalite/Johno, I still managed a 4-unit profit over the two sessions even with my poor-than-average strike rate. I am rather adept at bet-size manipulation (read: MM), so these minor glitches in my strike rates serve only to lengthen my session time.
Next week, my strike rates will be over 50%, and I will, gladly, put money on that.
Stay well....or, in your case, should I say "stay hidden"?
Quote: AxelWolfYa don't worry about 1% that certainly wont ad up to much, its ONLY 1%
But, but, but, I could win well, and regular if I won just 16.6666666666% of my placed bets. So, I figure that 49% is a gift from Zeus, baby, hey hey.
you have yours wires all crossed, you are confused or maybe confusionQuote: gr8playerHello, RolexWatch/Egalite/Johno, I trust all is well with you.
My bet selection process had me hitting at a better-than 53% rate. (I said "had" because my last trip, this past Thursday night/Friday, my strike rate was at a minus 4...roughly 46%. Hey, play this game long enough, you'll see days where all your 8s are getting eaten up by 9s.)
I'm still very comfortable, both with my strike rates and my method of play. Why? Because, RolexWatch/Egalite/Johno, I still managed a 4-unit profit over the two sessions even with my poor-than-average strike rate. I am rather adept at bet-size manipulation (read: MM), so these minor glitches in my strike rates serve only to lengthen my session time.
Next week, my strike rates will be over 50%, and I will, gladly, put money on that.
Stay well....or, in your case, should I say "stay hidden"?
BULLSHIT... You wont put 10 cents on it.
At a casino in a far far away galaxy...............................
....ring.....Ring.....ring. A Phone shakes the silence at the baccarat pit. John Bacarrat Pitboss: "Bac, John here". Eye in the sky: Eye in the sky here John. We've noticed Player 8 on table 007 sir, and we have analyzed their play and their is a danger. Should I call Security and have them vacated from the premises? John Bacarrat Pitboss: "Escort them out in our moment of impending victory?!?! I think you over estimate their chances"!
--------------
Here is the actual movie quote that I'm paraphrasing and applying it in a gambling flavor/light. The scene takes place in the Death star when the Rebel alliance is attacking the Death Star Base.
Commander #1:
"We’ve analyzed their attack, sir, and there is a danger. Should I have your ship standing by?"
Governor Tarkin:
"Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances."
- Star Wars
BankIt
Quote: gr8playerHello, djatc, I trust all is well with you.
Your commentary bears responding to because it is reflective of so many of our esteemed forum members, so, for that reason, I thank you for your post.
You see, djatc, I could not ever "give you a system that shows a mathematical advantage" that you could "play until your eyes bleed", for I haven't any such thing. And, frankly, I, too, am of the opinion that none exists.
I can show you one that still runs today from way back. I can prove to you mathematically based on the return of every outcome. Actually a couple members of the forum can show you a lot better then I can. If you can't show me any mathematical edge the "system" you have is BS.
Quote: gr8playerNow, does that statement run contrary to all I've been espousing right here in this forum (and others)? I should think not. Read on, my friend:
For all implications and intentions, you would like a "mechanical system" (two words that do not resonate well with me) that you could utilize in order to make money at this game. To which I respond: ain't gonna happen.
Without the "mechanics" of a system I have to take somebody's word that their system works. I work with many people who go to casinos and they always make money. I know many people online who claim they hit jackpots. Even if my mom says she has a bac system I would not believe her until she writes me up an equation as to where the advantage is, even if she was decked out in the nicest cars and had tons of jewelry.
Quote: gr8playerAnd you're seeking such from me (or any like player) because you're under the misconception that it might be what I (or any like player) might be utilizing in order to make money at this game. Well, my friend, nothing could be further from the truth of it.
I do not play any "system", and I do not play "mechanically" (read: robotic).
I couldn't begin to teach you my method of Baccarat play, at least not without you having some vast experience at real play of this game, any more than any master conductor could teach how to lead an orchestra to anyone that couldn't even read music. Either one would prove nothing more than a lesson in futility.
How do I teach you to read a shoe as I?
How do I teach you to record a shoe as I do?
How do I teach you how to manipulate your bet sizes as your variance shifts?
How do I teach you to learn to anticipate current trend changes BEFORE they actually/fully occur?
How do I teach you the optimum moment to exit a shoe/session?
How do I teach you to win over the long term?
I know how to play baccarat. You pick a side and hope your single digit total is higher then the other side. If you picked banker and you win you have to give up 5% in commission. There's not much more to it then that. I've always enjoyed -EV gambling, so I know how to play bac.
Quote: gr8playerLastly, djatc, I surely wish that I myself had at my disposal a "system that shows a mathematical advantage". I, too, would "play it until my eyes bleed".
Alas, to my knowledge, none exists. And that happens to be a good thing, for if one did actually exist, then this game, as we know it, would not.
Rather, my advantage lies within my experience, my ability to read a shoe, my knowledge of variance and my MM that is tailored around it, and my conservative exit strategies. All in my head. And I've no practical way to get you in on the inside.
Sorry. My posts, those that reference my Baccarat approaches and methodologies, will simply have to suffice for those that are interested. Those that are not will, I'm afraid, continue to seek the "mechanical Holy Grail system". Good luck with that.
So in a nutshell you play on hunches and have been luckier then not, so you think that you can predict what is going to happen next not 100% of the time but more likely right then wrong. I wouldn't even believe my own family if they told me they had a hunch without evidence, so you're going to have to try a lot harder to prove you're just running good picking winners. I bet the last half of the football season including the superbowl and am up in picking winners/spreads, so am I some sharp sports bettor? Or was it because I am a Seahawks fan and just kept betting on them as they had a great season?
Quote: djatcSo in a nutshell you play on hunches and have been luckier then not
I suspect that this statement is half right.
You really think that this guy wins money?? I have a bridge to sell you...
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI suspect that this statement is half right.
You really think that this guy wins money?? I have a bridge to sell you...
Nobody ever loses money in a casino, they all crush it or break even. If I beleived everyone and their stories. Roulette players buck a 5% edge and come out ahead every session.
luckier? by his own account, he lost 250k.Quote: djatcSo in a nutshell you play on hunches and have been luckier then not, .
If I play shoe and win 60 or 70% of the bets I place, I do not claim I have 60% professional guess rate! All it means is that I was in sync with a particualr shoe. Odds times I make 80% of guesses right, "ooh look at me, I have 80% bet selection", that is so dumb. I think it serve you well to learn from GR8, you can learn from his posts not to fall into trap of becoming degenrate, deluded, fantasy gambler.
+10 and the Most accurate statement in this thread thus far.Quote: BuzzardNext week, my strike rates will be over 50%, and I will, gladly, put money on that.
BULLSHIT... You wont put 10 cents on it.
He wont even prove he plays the dam game.
I remember Mission and you said something about dealing a few shoes via web cam or something. Not sure why this never panned out, however I have an offer/bet for you. No logical reason this can't happen as far as your identity or system security is concerned.
If you didn't want to bet real money perhaps we could wager my money VS your permanent banishment
You could just do it to gain some respect and pride for your supposed Bac system.
I know nothing about baccarat, I would be willing to play the same shoes you do and bet I can do better or =than you.
Quote: AxelWolfQuote: gr8playerI trust all is Hell with you.
POM, fat-fingered, Freudian slip, or not...
Quote: gr8playerHello, djatc, I trust all is well with you.
Your commentary bears responding to because it is reflective of so many of our esteemed forum members, so, for that reason, I thank you for your post.
You see, djatc, I could not ever "give you a system that shows a mathematical advantage" that you could "play until your eyes bleed", for I haven't any such thing. And, frankly, I, too, am of the opinion that none exists.
Now, does that statement run contrary to all I've been espousing right here in this forum (and others)? I should think not. Read on, my friend:
For all implications and intentions, you would like a "mechanical system" (two words that do not resonate well with me) that you could utilize in order to make money at this game. To which I respond: ain't gonna happen.
And you're seeking such from me (or any like player) because you're under the misconception that it might be what I (or any like player) might be utilizing in order to make money at this game. Well, my friend, nothing could be further from the truth of it.
I do not play any "system", and I do not play "mechanically" (read: robotic).
I couldn't begin to teach you my method of Baccarat play, at least not without you having some vast experience at real play of this game, any more than any master conductor could teach how to lead an orchestra to anyone that couldn't even read music. Either one would prove nothing more than a lesson in futility.
How do I teach you to read a shoe as I?
How do I teach you to record a shoe as I do?
How do I teach you how to manipulate your bet sizes as your variance shifts?
How do I teach you to learn to anticipate current trend changes BEFORE they actually/fully occur?
How do I teach you the optimum moment to exit a shoe/session?
How do I teach you to win over the long term?
Lastly, djatc, I surely wish that I myself had at my disposal a "system that shows a mathematical advantage". I, too, would "play it until my eyes bleed".
Alas, to my knowledge, none exists. And that happens to be a good thing, for if one did actually exist, then this game, as we know it, would not.
Rather, my advantage lies within my experience, my ability to read a shoe, my knowledge of variance and my MM that is tailored around it, and my conservative exit strategies. All in my head. And I've no practical way to get you in on the inside.
Sorry. My posts, those that reference my Baccarat approaches and methodologies, will simply have to suffice for those that are interested. Those that are not will, I'm afraid, continue to seek the "mechanical Holy Grail system". Good luck with that.
I think I've got it.
I think you play Bac the way I play Pai-Gow.
Pai-Gow is my game of choice. The only game I can tolerate playing. I, like you, don't play "blind", that is, I don't just plop my money down and see what happens. I watch what's going on, see the cards played, sense the flow of the table. That information, once absorbed, definitely affects the way I wager and the way I play, so much so that I often break House Way and go the way my mind says is right.
I've played a lot of Pai-Gow. I see things in the cards. Groups, patterns, whatever you want to call it. The Flow. And that controls my play.
In a practical sense, there is no way I could communicate my "system". A lot of it is "feel", a lot of it is "sense". Sure, you could track my play and come up with an EV after the fact, but there's no way to simulate it as it isn't an "if X, do Y" type of system.
And you know what? I am absolutely a lifetime winner. I can safely and without exageration say that my lifetime return is an easy 80% of my buy. Last time I came with $100 and left with $220 without dipping lower than two wagers in the hole, and had half a mess of free Busweisers on top of it. With possibly one exception where I might have lost $15, I have never walked away from Pai Gow with less than I started with.
Do you see similarities between ourselves and our play? I sure do.
I think the only difference between us is I have admitted there is nothing special about me or my play. I do something a certain way and have benefited much as a result. No one has a problem with it because that happens all the time. I've described my way of play, dubbing it a "Quasi Martingale Gambler's Falacy", and I haven't received one single comment poo-pooing the idea nor anything resembling an insult. I think every single bit of any resistance you find here is not because you play a certain way, not because you've won or lost a certain amount, or any other reason than you make a claim which cannot be proven. That is the only way we differ. My play is open ended - this is what I did, this is what happened. You, on the other hand, make repeated references to an "advantage", which is simply unprovable. Bringing up something unprovable, well...that's no different than discussing religion. And topics like that do not do well in an environment that is as highly based in scientific and mathematical proof as this one is.
If you merely like responses no matter the tone, do carry on. You're sure to get many if you keep posting unprovable claims. But if you want to talk Bac, then talk Bac. In the posts that aren't responding to snipes from other members, they're mostly like the one I quoted. All about your play, very little about the game. I mean, looks at aceofspades. He uses an inferior count, accepts it, and reports on his experience which is a popular thread everytime. Besides a random jab or joke, his A/5 count is hardly mentioned. We just want to hear the experience.
You could do that, too. If Bac talk is really what you seek.
First, if he can bet as many hands as he wants before quitting, he has a very high probability of winning the bet (assuming that he quits the first time he is over 50%). This probability is limited only by his bankroll and the number of hands that he can get in before the bet ends.
Second, even if you fix the number of hands that he must play, assuming that you ignore ties, he can get an edge in this bet by just betting banker all the time.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm watching a guy martingale blackjack right now. He's going $10, $20, $40, $80 and if the $80 loses, he reverts back to $10 and starts over.
Let us know when he splits to 3 hands and gets a double down all at once at the $80 level.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm watching a guy martingale blackjack right now. He's going $10, $20, $40, $80 and if the $80 loses, he reverts back to $10 and starts over.
People who try to martingale that way are going to lose. Oh don't get me wrong. I'm not a martingale hater, I'm a believer that it can work, does it eventually fail it sure does, it sure does.
BankIt
Quote: BuzzardNext week, my strike rates will be over 50%, and I will, gladly, put money on that.
BULLSHIT... You wont put 10 cents on it.
Oh, but I surely will, Buzzard. You see, my friend, I'll be playing Baccarat on Thursday night and Friday afternoon in AC, betting on the exact same plays that have proven to serve me well for years. I am not afraid to put my money where my mouth is, for I've been doing it for years.
Stay well.
Quote: djatcSo in a nutshell you play on hunches and have been luckier then not, so you think that you can predict what is going to happen next not 100% of the time but more likely right then wrong.
Hmmm...."more likely right then wrong"....yes, djatc, sure.
I play with a quiet confidence. Frankly, I think those that do not are, for lack of a better term, losers.
I am confident in my ability to read a shoe, to sense its direction, and, therefore, unafraid to bet to my abilities.
Am I ever wrong? Heck, I'm wrong more than I could ever care for. But, can you see, I've a plan for that as well. I'll back off. I'll "no-bet".
You see, djatc, I don't chase. I much prefer to wait. I'd rather pay the price of time as opposed to bankroll.
When I play my patient and disciplined game, the wins will fall right into my lap. My plays won't sleep for long. And my wins are right there.
Can you name one credible person that has seen you play? put you're money where your moth is and let mission or someone deal some shoes to you and you and your system caa remain anonymous . And we can make some type of side bet.Quote: gr8playerOh, but I surely will, Buzzard. You see, my friend, I'll be playing Baccarat on Thursday night and Friday afternoon in AC, betting on the exact same plays that have proven to serve me well for years. I am not afraid to put my money where my mouth is, for I've been doing it for years.
Stay well.
Quote: djatcAlso gr8player I ask these questions not because I think you are BS'ing but I truthfully would love to learn how to get an edge in bac without edge sorting which doesn't allow itself the opportunity enough. It's one of the best table games to run a system on if you have an advantage since you can make huge bets, you only have to buck a 1-1.5% edge, and game protection is a lot more lax than say high stakes blackjack.
Correct.
Why is that?:
Because the Asians are constantly re-filling the casino's coffers, they don't give a player such as myself a second look. They're much more interested on getting every last dollar from the compulsive gamblers at this game, and they're rather adept at doing just that.
Me, on the other hand? I get the crappiest ratings and the longest brush-offs....they make it rather clear that if I'd never step foot into their casino again that they'd be just fine with that.
Quote: AxelWolfHello,gr8player , I trust all is Hell with you.
I remember Mission and you said something about dealing a few shoes via web cam or something. Not sure why this never panned out, however I have an offer/bet for you. No logical reason this can't happen as far as your identity or system security is concerned.
If you didn't want to bet real money perhaps we could wager my money VS your permanent banishment
You could just do it to gain some respect and pride for your supposed Bac system.
I know nothing about baccarat, I would be willing to play the same shoes you do and bet I can do better or =than you.
AxelWolf, I've nothing against you personally. I should hope that the feeling is mutual. We don't necessarily have to agree in order to maintain a mutual respect.
Your quoted post just above disheartens me, as I believe you to be a better person than that suggests.
Stay well. (Notice the "w" there....just as it should be.)
Now I have heard everything.Quote: gr8playerCorrect.
Why is that?:
Because the Asians are constantly re-filling the casino's coffers, they don't give a player such as myself a second look. They're much more interested on getting every last dollar from the compulsive gamblers at this game, and they're rather adept at doing just that.
Me, on the other hand? I get the crappiest ratings and the longest brush-offs....they make it rather clear that if I'd never step foot into their casino again that they'd be just fine with that.
Quote: RolexWatchI'll lay $100 bucks he won't accept your offer, despite claiming he can forsee future trends and predict there ending. There will be 18 singles in a shoe and 9 doubles, if not they will correct themselves the next shoe, jaysus mother of God didn't realise it was that easy.
Give it up already....you're not fooling anybody 'round here.
As much as you talk about how good you are at Bac and want everyone to believe it to be true. Don't you think its time to show one ounce of proof you even play? I assume there is someone you trust enough to verify you even enter a casino.Quote: gr8playerAxelWolf, I've nothing against you personally. I should hope that the feeling is mutual. We don't necessarily have to agree in order to maintain a mutual respect.
Your quoted post just above disheartens me, as I believe you to be a better person than that suggests.
Stay well. (Notice the "w" there....just as it should be.)
I have nothing against you or Bac, or the fact that you tell stories how often you win. My problem is you avoid any and every opportunity to prove you are not just some dreamer in his moms basement. How can anyone believe anything you say.
Didn't you recently come to Vegas or have plans to do so? Why not offer the Wizard or someone to come watch you play?
Face was right you really don't want to talk about Bac you want to talk about how good you are at bac. I seriously think you are just trolling
Quote: FaceI think I've got it.
I think you play Bac the way I play Pai-Gow.
Pai-Gow is my game of choice. The only game I can tolerate playing. I, like you, don't play "blind", that is, I don't just plop my money down and see what happens. I watch what's going on, see the cards played, sense the flow of the table. That information, once absorbed, definitely affects the way I wager and the way I play, so much so that I often break House Way and go the way my mind says is right.
I've played a lot of Pai-Gow. I see things in the cards. Groups, patterns, whatever you want to call it. The Flow. And that controls my play.
In a practical sense, there is no way I could communicate my "system". A lot of it is "feel", a lot of it is "sense". Sure, you could track my play and come up with an EV after the fact, but there's no way to simulate it as it isn't an "if X, do Y" type of system.
And you know what? I am absolutely a lifetime winner. I can safely and without exageration say that my lifetime return is an easy 80% of my buy. Last time I came with $100 and left with $220 without dipping lower than two wagers in the hole, and had half a mess of free Busweisers on top of it. With possibly one exception where I might have lost $15, I have never walked away from Pai Gow with less than I started with.
Do you see similarities between ourselves and our play? I sure do.
I think the only difference between us is I have admitted there is nothing special about me or my play. I do something a certain way and have benefited much as a result. No one has a problem with it because that happens all the time. I've described my way of play, dubbing it a "Quasi Martingale Gambler's Falacy", and I haven't received one single comment poo-pooing the idea nor anything resembling an insult. I think every single bit of any resistance you find here is not because you play a certain way, not because you've won or lost a certain amount, or any other reason than you make a claim which cannot be proven. That is the only way we differ. My play is open ended - this is what I did, this is what happened. You, on the other hand, make repeated references to an "advantage", which is simply unprovable. Bringing up something unprovable, well...that's no different than discussing religion. And topics like that do not do well in an environment that is as highly based in scientific and mathematical proof as this one is.
If you merely like responses no matter the tone, do carry on. You're sure to get many if you keep posting unprovable claims. But if you want to talk Bac, then talk Bac. In the posts that aren't responding to snipes from other members, they're mostly like the one I quoted. All about your play, very little about the game. I mean, looks at aceofspades. He uses an inferior count, accepts it, and reports on his experience which is a popular thread everytime. Besides a random jab or joke, his A/5 count is hardly mentioned. We just want to hear the experience.
You could do that, too. If Bac talk is really what you seek.
Thank you, Face, for a fine post. Good job, my friend.
Amazing, isn't it?......what some good ol' genuine thinking can do for a person, both at the tables and at their keyboards.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBe very careful about betting someone that his strike rate will be over 50%, with no other stipulations.
First, if he can bet as many hands as he wants before quitting, he has a very high probability of winning the bet (assuming that he quits the first time he is over 50%). This probability is limited only by his bankroll and the number of hands that he can get in before the bet ends.
Second, even if you fix the number of hands that he must play, assuming that you ignore ties, he can get an edge in this bet by just betting banker all the time.
Oh no, you didn't, AxiomOfChoice! Sorry, my friend, but you can't have it both ways......
....I posted about my strike rates and you said, in a nutshell, "impossible".....
....but now you're posting that it is, in fact, doable.
No, no, no....I call a flag on that play. C'mon, man...pick a side....
Quote: FaceI think I've got it.
I think you play Bac the way I play Pai-Gow.
Pai-Gow is my game of choice. The only game I can tolerate playing. I, like you, don't play "blind", that is, I don't just plop my money down and see what happens. I watch what's going on, see the cards played, sense the flow of the table. That information, once absorbed, definitely affects the way I wager and the way I play, so much so that I often break House Way and go the way my mind says is right.
I've played a lot of Pai-Gow. I see things in the cards. Groups, patterns, whatever you want to call it. The Flow. And that controls my play.
In a practical sense, there is no way I could communicate my "system". A lot of it is "feel", a lot of it is "sense". Sure, you could track my play and come up with an EV after the fact, but there's no way to simulate it as it isn't an "if X, do Y" type of system.
And you know what? I am absolutely a lifetime winner. I can safely and without exageration say that my lifetime return is an easy 80% of my buy. Last time I came with $100 and left with $220 without dipping lower than two wagers in the hole, and had half a mess of free Busweisers on top of it. With possibly one exception where I might have lost $15, I have never walked away from Pai Gow with less than I started with.
Do you see similarities between ourselves and our play? I sure do.
I think the only difference between us is I have admitted there is nothing special about me or my play. I do something a certain way and have benefited much as a result. No one has a problem with it because that happens all the time. I've described my way of play, dubbing it a "Quasi Martingale Gambler's Falacy", and I haven't received one single comment poo-pooing the idea nor anything resembling an insult. I think every single bit of any resistance you find here is not because you play a certain way, not because you've won or lost a certain amount, or any other reason than you make a claim which cannot be proven. That is the only way we differ. My play is open ended - this is what I did, this is what happened. You, on the other hand, make repeated references to an "advantage", which is simply unprovable. Bringing up something unprovable, well...that's no different than discussing religion. And topics like that do not do well in an environment that is as highly based in scientific and mathematical proof as this one is.
If you merely like responses no matter the tone, do carry on. You're sure to get many if you keep posting unprovable claims. But if you want to talk Bac, then talk Bac. In the posts that aren't responding to snipes from other members, they're mostly like the one I quoted. All about your play, very little about the game. I mean, looks at aceofspades. He uses an inferior count, accepts it, and reports on his experience which is a popular thread everytime. Besides a random jab or joke, his A/5 count is hardly mentioned. We just want to hear the experience.
You could do that, too. If Bac talk is really what you seek.
I have some questions, if you don't mind...
1. How many sessions have you played, lifetime? Ballpark, to a factor of ten. 100 times? 1000? 10,000?
2. If you are losing, do you generally increase your bets?
3. If you lose your initial stake, will you buy in for more? If necessary, will you buy in for a lot compared to your initial buy-in? Eg, have you ever initially bought in for $100, gone on a losing streak, and eventually been in for $1000 or more, before making a comeback and quitting a winner? Even if you haven't had to, are you willing to?
4. Do you bank? If so, do you get significantly more action than you give?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI have some questions, if you don't mind...
1. How many sessions have you played, lifetime? Ballpark, to a factor of ten. 100 times? 1000? 10,000?
2. If you are losing, do you generally increase your bets?
3. If you lose your initial stake, will you buy in for more? If necessary, will you buy in for a lot compared to your initial buy-in? Eg, have you ever initially bought in for $100, gone on a losing streak, and eventually been in for $1000 or more, before making a comeback and quitting a winner? Even if you haven't had to, are you willing to?
4. Do you bank? If so, do you get significantly more action than you give?
No, I don't mind, AxiomOfChoice, I've answered countless questions in these forums.
So, here goes:
1.) Tough question....lifetime sessions?....20,000?....more?
2.) No. In fact, I'd sooner "no-bet" into the "untrendable anomaly" shoes. I get enough good ones so that I'm more than comfortable discarding the bad ones.
3.) I never, ever re-buy. Evah....
4.) Sorry, AxiomOfChoice, I do not understand the "Do you bank?" question. I hope you're not confusing Bac with Chemin-de-fer.
Quote: gr8playerI think you missed his point.Your system is no different then the average gambler that avoids flat betting.Quote: Face
Amazing, isn't it?......what some good ol' genuine thinking can do for a person, both at the tables and at their keyboards.
Do you think your the only one that has hunches and bets when they feel its right, using bet selection and money management? Half the table games players do this. Some very smart people do this. The difference is they know its just for fun and have not yet deluded themselves into thinking it really works.♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Quote: rob45gr8player doesn't understand Axiom's 4th question about Pai Gow. (Guess he doesn't understand that the questions were directed to Face.)
Oooops, my bad....thank you, rob45, for the enlightenment. Sorry, AxiomOfChoice and Face; carry on.
Quote: AxelWolfI think you missed his point.Your system is no different then the average gambler that avoids flat betting.
No, AxelWolf, his point was not lost on me. I am very aware that there isn't much correlation between Pai Gow and a Baccarat shoe. I was simply commending his "out-of-the-box" thinking. Good for Face.
Quote: AxelWolfDo you think your the only one that has hunches and bets when they feel its right, using bet selection and money management? Half the table games players do this. Some very smart people do this. The difference is they know its just for fun and have not yet deluded themselves into thinking it really works.
I've come much, much too far for any mistaken "delusions", AxelWolf.
But you are correct...I haven't patented any bet selection or money-management processes. I, myself, know of a few others who are just as able, just as adept, as I. Sometimes we find ourselves at the same table. And, you want the real kicker?....there are times, albeit not very often, where we find ourselves betting opposite of each other. Just goes to show about the uniqueness of this game, and how two differing players, dependent upon how they record and/or read the shoe, might see the pending results differently.
The important take-away from all of that is this: it doesn't really matter.
What counts....what really ONLY counts....is what I think is correct, and that is where MY money plays.
Stay well.
Quote: AxelWolf
Didn't you recently come to Vegas or have plans to do so? Why not offer the Wizard or someone to come watch you play?
You have a lot to gain gr8player by having the Wizard, the most trusted source in gambling take a look at your play, then he can say a simple yes or no as to whether you have an advantage or not. He doesn't have to reveal your methods. If you can convince him you have an edge, you'll be one of the most respected members on this forum, behind the Wizard and a few others. No risk to you, and everything to gain if you can do what you are saying.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm sure that he Wizard isn't going to waste his time.
As there is no mechanical system, apparently, then how could anyone 'take a look at it'.
Of course, this contra to other claims that gr8 has made where he claims he plays the same way all the time, and there is no 'gut' in his decisions. It's based on maths and variance and streaks and positive cash flow. Or something like that.
So, whatevers.
