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gr8player
gr8player
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February 18th, 2014 at 4:58:40 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

But then I passed my high school math courses. I have left games for a variety of reasons, but "locking up a win" was never one of them.



I majored in accounting at C.W. Post on L.I. Rest assured, I too passed my math courses.
gr8player
gr8player
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:04:39 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You were the one who claimed that your strike rate was 53%. If you are more than 50% sure of this claim, it's a good bet for you!

Are you now claiming that you are less than 50% sure that your strike rate is 53%? Wouldn't that mean that you (gasp) lied???

I'm shocked; really, I am. With all your talk and bravado, you are unwilling to back up your claims (remember, the 53% strike rate was your claim) with your money.

If your previous claim was correct, then this is better than a 50/50 bet for you.

Your response just reinforces what I've always known to be true. Not only are you a losing player, but you know that you are a losing player. You know that your claimed 53% strike rate is utter nonsense; if you felt that it was true, you'd jump at this bet.



I do not lie, AxiomOfChoice, and I don't like your apparent tone.

My 53% is an over-all number, collective on a handful of the preferred plays that I utilize.

But it is not guaranteed. It can, and does, waver.

I, on the other hand, do not.

I say it again: I am nobody's fool.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:07:22 PM permalink
Quote: RolexWatch

What is hilarious is that when this great baccarat playa turns up at the wizard site, he has to point out the number of posts he has made on other boards (think he mentioned he has over 4000 posts on one site and 1000 on another in his desperately seeking thread). When anybody takes the mind numbing decision to glance over those posts, they are 10 times more obtuse than the amphigory he posts here, however views them as a badge of honour? When in reality it stinks of desperateness to be acknowledged. Acknowledgement of what exactly? "hey look at me, I'm winning now despite losing $250k".

What exactly were you trying to say here, don't stop dreaming about Baccarat shoes in 3D perhaps? That you can predict what is akin to coin flips with a great degree of accuracy? Or highlight you are obviously lacking recognition in some walks of your life, therefore compensate via your destructive gambling addiction.

When it comes to "baloney" who is the daddy?

GR8

Moderators might just be sleeping, I hope it stays that way for your sake. I think they may use more leniency in this thread witch I think would be fair.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gr8player
gr8player
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:13:55 PM permalink
Quote: RolexWatch

Walter Mitty caught in the headlights yet again.



Firstly, my username is "gr8player", it's only reasonable that you refer to me as such.

I have no aliases, not Walter Mitty, not any. Unlike you, I have no reason to use any other name than my own, as I, unlike you, have nothing to hide from. So, that said, if I have no reason to use any other name for myself, you sure-as-heck have no legitimate reason to. Stop it.

Secondly, there is no "caught in the headlights" at all. There exists disagreement. It happens on any public internet forum. I can handle it.

You, on the other hand, took your disagreement with another forum member to new, unchartered heights when you CALLED ON THE PERSON IN HIS HOME IN ORDER TO THREATEN HIM!

Talk yet another walk, RolexWatch/Egalite/Johno/Carlo/Sting, just ban yourself again, it's time for you to go....when you calm down, you can always return with yet another alias. After all, that's obviously what you're best at.....deceit.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:19:17 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: RolexWatch

What is hilarious is that when this great baccarat playa turns up at the wizard site, he has to point out the number of posts he has made on other boards (think he mentioned he has over 4000 posts on one site and 1000 on another in his desperately seeking thread). When anybody takes the mind numbing decision to glance over those posts, they are 10 times more obtuse than the amphigory he posts here, however views them as a badge of honour? When in reality it stinks of desperateness to be acknowledged. Acknowledgement of what exactly? "hey look at me, I'm winning now despite losing $250k".

What exactly were you trying to say here, don't stop dreaming about Baccarat shoes in 3D perhaps? That you can predict what is akin to coin flips with a great degree of accuracy? Or highlight you are obviously lacking recognition in some walks of your life, therefore compensate via your destructive gambling addiction.

When it comes to "baloney" who is the daddy?

GR8

Moderators might just be sleeping, I hope it stays that way for your sake. I think they may use more leniency in this thread witch I think would be fair.



I'm looking at this. They're both on a hair trigger IMO for consistency in application across the forum, and they might both be wise to read the rest of the people participating for guidance on how to conduct themselves. So far it's been childish "So's your mama" garbage aimed solely at each other in equal measure. But rob45 made a good point; if they don't want to take their self-acknowledged petty spat over to the other forum because it's too much for new moderators there, why should this forum put up with it? Rolex and Gr8, please consider yourselves both on a very short leash here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:20:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

And you could get a lot of dollars if you could show a 53% strike rate (which was, by the way, your claim) over any significant period of time. First, you'd win money from the casino. Second, lots of people would bet that you couldn't do it, so you would win all the side bets on top of the money that you'd win for the casino. Why be happy with your tiny win goal? You can win so much more...

Also, why hit and run? Why not stick around for the next shoe and beat that one too? And the next one, and the next one, and the next one after that? Winning players don't hit and run... they sit there and keep winning and winning and winning. Win goals are for people who are scared to lose it back, because they know that they are playing a losing game, and only won because they got lucky.

Let me be very clear here: Someone could observe you bet on 1000 non-tied (as in, if the result of the hand is a tie, it won't count towards the total) hands of baccarat from an 8-deck shoe in a real casino that has reasonable game-protection procedures (eg, procedures that prevent edge-sorting). If you win 530 or more of those 1000 bets, you would win the side-bet. If you win 529 or less, you lose the side-bet.

Personally, I would gladly put up $10,000 against you in this side-bet, provided that I could observe the play, or someone who I trusted could, and that the money was held by a trusted third party. I'm sure that others would also be willing to bet on this. I'd suspect that you could easily get $100,000 in total action if you wished. And, of course, that $100,000 would be in addition to whatever you happened to win at the tables. I know full well that this will never happen, because you are well aware that your claimed 53% strike rate is nonsense. At least, this should put aside this "nothing to gain" theory. You have a lot to gain!

(Note to interested observers: if he bets on banker every time, he has about a 7.6% chance of winning. If he mixes his bets between player and banker, his chances of winning are less)

Ax you may have to just send me some summaries each time. I like what you have to say you are well spoken and logical. However, it's.... well, to long(where is soxfan when you need him?), So are most of Gr8s post long, But I don't have to read much of his Bac stuff to know it is nothing important.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:31:12 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: RolexWatch

What is hilarious is that when this great baccarat playa turns up at the wizard site, he has to point out the number of posts he has made on other boards (think he mentioned he has over 4000 posts on one site and 1000 on another in his desperately seeking thread). When anybody takes the mind numbing decision to glance over those posts, they are 10 times more obtuse than the amphigory he posts here, however views them as a badge of honour? When in reality it stinks of desperateness to be acknowledged. Acknowledgement of what exactly? "hey look at me, I'm winning now despite losing $250k".

What exactly were you trying to say here, don't stop dreaming about Baccarat shoes in 3D perhaps? That you can predict what is akin to coin flips with a great degree of accuracy? Or highlight you are obviously lacking recognition in some walks of your life, therefore compensate via your destructive gambling addiction.

When it comes to "baloney" who is the daddy?

GR8

Moderators might just be sleeping, I hope it stays that way for your sake. I think they may use more leniency in this thread witch I think would be fair.



I'm looking at this. They're both on a hair trigger IMO for consistency in application across the forum, and they might both be wise to read the rest of the people participating for guidance on how to conduct themselves. So far it's been childish "So's your mama" garbage aimed solely at each other in equal measure. But rob45 made a good point; if they don't want to take their self-acknowledged petty spat over to the other forum because it's too much for new moderators there, why should this forum put up with it? Rolex and Gr8, please consider yourselves both on a very short leash here.

I knew the Sharks were circling, I hope I didn't chum the waters.

This may bring up an interesting question, Why cant there be a warning or indentation of some kind before entering this thread? Maybe an icon indicating a long leash has been extended, post and view at your own risk and don't complain. Mods can be the only people to issue this request.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DMSCR
DMSCR
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:36:02 PM permalink
soxfan if you are reading this you still got some cashews and beer? hey hey.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I majored in accounting at C.W. Post on L.I. Rest assured, I too passed my math courses.



I went to CW Post for summer school classes when I was 7. I took a class in which we predicted there would be flying cars by 1995. I don't see any flying cars.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:40:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: RolexWatch

What is hilarious is that when this great baccarat playa turns up at the wizard site, he has to point out the number of posts he has made on other boards (think he mentioned he has over 4000 posts on one site and 1000 on another in his desperately seeking thread). When anybody takes the mind numbing decision to glance over those posts, they are 10 times more obtuse than the amphigory he posts here, however views them as a badge of honour? When in reality it stinks of desperateness to be acknowledged. Acknowledgement of what exactly? "hey look at me, I'm winning now despite losing $250k".

What exactly were you trying to say here, don't stop dreaming about Baccarat shoes in 3D perhaps? That you can predict what is akin to coin flips with a great degree of accuracy? Or highlight you are obviously lacking recognition in some walks of your life, therefore compensate via your destructive gambling addiction.

When it comes to "baloney" who is the daddy?

GR8

Moderators might just be sleeping, I hope it stays that way for your sake. I think they may use more leniency in this thread witch I think would be fair.



I'm looking at this. They're both on a hair trigger IMO for consistency in application across the forum, and they might both be wise to read the rest of the people participating for guidance on how to conduct themselves. So far it's been childish "So's your mama" garbage aimed solely at each other in equal measure. But rob45 made a good point; if they don't want to take their self-acknowledged petty spat over to the other forum because it's too much for new moderators there, why should this forum put up with it? Rolex and Gr8, please consider yourselves both on a very short leash here.

I knew the Sharks were circling, I hope I didn't chum the waters.

This may bring up an interesting question, Why cant there be a warning or indentation of some kind before entering this thread? Maybe an icon indicating a long leash has been extended, post and view at your own risk and don't complain. Mods can be the only people to issue this request.



Part of the reason I haven't just put them both in a time-out is that neither one of them participates much on the rest of the forum and may well be in a bubble of ignorance about the moderation questions and clarification going on elsewhere. So: here it is for them both. Be as disparaging of each other's advice, systems, and posts as you like. DO NOT continue the personal insults, family references, or name-calling if you wish to continue posting here. Thank you.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:41:06 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I do not lie, AxiomOfChoice, and I don't like your apparent tone.

My 53% is an over-all number, collective on a handful of the preferred plays that I utilize.

But it is not guaranteed. It can, and does, waver.

I, on the other hand, do not.

I say it again: I am nobody's fool.



Of course it wavers.

But, riddle me this.

If your strike rate truly is 53%, and I offer you an evens bet that you can't hit over 52% on 1,000 plays, what is your advantage?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:57:02 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Of course it would, endermike; you know that and I know that and AxiomOfChoice knows that as well.

That said, my friend, no one's about to propose a bet that will, undoubtedly, play into one of my strengths.



You claimed that you had a 53% strike rate. Actually, you claimed that it was a bit over 53% and approaching 54%. Was this not true? It seems like I've offered you a bet that plays right into one of your strengths. That 53% strike rate is one hell of a strength!!
Buzzard
Buzzard
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:58:57 PM permalink
" I say it again: I am nobody's fool. "

Then you are a free agent ?

( in the past I would have no fear of posting this, but now ? ? ? )
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 5:59:08 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I do not lie, AxiomOfChoice, and I don't like your apparent tone.

My 53% is an over-all number, collective on a handful of the preferred plays that I utilize.

But it is not guaranteed. It can, and does, waver.

I, on the other hand, do not.

I say it again: I am nobody's fool.



It need not be guaranteed to be a good bet for you. I never said that I was offering you a sure thing. I am simply offering you something which would be a good bet for you if your claim was true.

If you are worried about the possibility of a single bad run, I would be more than happy to make the same bet several times over.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Ax you may have to just send me some summaries each time. I like what you have to say you are well spoken and logical. However, it's.... well, to long(where is soxfan when you need him?), So are most of Gr8s post long, But I don't have to read much of his Bac stuff to know it is nothing important.



Yup, I'm long-winded. A good writer can be concise and still get the point across. I'm not a good writer.

Here's a summary:

In a previous thread, gr8 claimed that he had a strike rate of over 53%, approaching 54%.
I offered to bet him $10k at even money that he couldn't get 530 out of 1000 bets correct (not counting ties).
He is now backpedalling while trying to save face. The excuses are coming in at a fast and furious pace.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:06:40 PM permalink
GR8Player should accept a 50/50 bet. He should be accepting something he has an advantage at. Hitting 53% (his claimed rate) confers no advantage, so no reasons to take the bet. A lower line would give both sides a perceived +EV bet. If gr8player trusts his edge.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:09:28 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Buzzard
Buzzard
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:18:05 PM permalink
Anybody seen TOPP lately ? He put $100 up against SOOPOO challenge at Ahigh's house. Could not let him not pay up, but told Ahigh spend it on his kids.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

GR8Player should accept a 50/50 bet. He should be accepting something he has an advantage at. Hitting 53% (his claimed rate) confers no advantage, so no reasons to take the bet. A lower line would give both sides a perceived +EV bet. If gr8player trusts his edge.



What do you mean by a 50/50 bet?

Note that a >50% strike rate is expected if you just bet on banker all the time (we aren't counting ties towards the total)

His claimed rate was actually above 53%, and approaching 54%. If his strike rate is actually 53.5%, he has a 63.66% chance of winning this bet, so even money is a great deal for him.

Even if his strike rate is exactly 53%, he still has a slight edge, due to the fact that exactly 530 hits is a win for him (his probability of winning would be 51.29%)
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:25:14 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

For someone who doesn't even play the game, you sure seem to have some strong opinions regarding the "merits" of my play.

You seek to denigrate either myself, personally, or my play at every chance you get, AxelWolf. You've even gone so far as to proclaim that you would get the better of me if we were to play Baccarat together at the same shoe.

I will tell you this, my friend:

One shoe would prove nothing. Nor, frankly would a second or even a third. But given a larger sample of shoes, you wouldn't have a chance in heck to get the better of me. The casinos have their own built-in house edge, and still THEY can't do it. You, AxelWolf, would be left crying in my dust.

And, so that you make no mistake of it, there's a whole boatload of MERIT in that statement.

Yes but I'm just as good as you and the rest of the world at flipping house favored lopsided coins. I to, have gut feeling and BS, MM "skill?" (I just know dam well all that cant beat the math) My MM skills must be better because I have never lost $250. I can 100% guarantee I have wagered more money in casinos then you have. I will even Let you guess your number. Hell My GF has probably wagered more then you and is a lifetime winner.

I have no doubt your BS skills are second to none.

Oh yes, I understand 1 shoe(I will address that issue more below) proves nothing -250k might start telling the story. Even if you are bouncing back, perhaps its because of variance and you have fooled yourself in to thinking it has something to do with changes you have made.

Wow! you will leave me in the dust? That's a bold statement, you should not make such claims, unless you are willing to put your money where your mouth is.

Since one shoe is not adequate and I heard you boasting, that most weekends in AC you win and pay for your expenses. So i would agree to play the number of shoes you play during your supposed AC trips. since you think your skill is far better then mine you should have no problem giving me odds or something. I will even play "blind" I only need to know a few things like: What the best are, who won who lost. I don't need to know what cards have been played or whats trending. I don't need to see a score board or anything thing to write stuff down with.

Or if you are giving me odds, ill just bet the opposite of you, for the same amount. You should have no problem with that. Since your skill is so vast and you know the best ties to bet and for how much, I would be a huge underdog.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:28:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What do you mean by a 50/50 bet?

Note that a >50% strike rate is expected if you just bet on banker all the time (we aren't counting ties towards the total)

His claimed rate was actually above 53%, and approaching 54%. If his strike rate is actually 53.5%, he has a 63.66% chance of winning this bet, so even money is a great deal for him.

Even if his strike rate is exactly 53%, he still has a slight edge, due to the fact that exactly 530 hits is a win for him (his probability of winning would be 51.29%)



Yeah, I was assuming (ho ho) 530 would be a 50/50 bet. It's not quite, I didn't actually check my assumptions. Of course at 530, you have a 94% chance of winning.

Recall, our hero doesn't bet everyhand. I think 1,000 bets is about 25% of his current total bets made.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:32:49 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Yeah, I was assuming (ho ho) 530 would be a 50/50 bet. It's not quite, I didn't actually check my assumptions. Of course at 530, you have a 94% chance of winning.

Recall, our hero doesn't bet everyhand. I think 1,000 bets is about 25% of his current total bets made.



I never said that he had to bet every hand. It would be 1000 hands that he bets (and aren't tied).

There would probably need to be some sort of time limit to prevent him from just sitting there and not betting when it becomes clear that he's going to lose (1000 hands takes a long time if you're only betting 3 hands a shoe) but I'm sure that something reasonable could be worked out.

Also, in another post, he has claimed that he has played over 2000 sessions in his life. How could 1000 hands be 25% of his total bets made? The guy makes 2 bets per session? None of this adds up.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 18th, 2014 at 6:41:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I never said that he had to bet every hand. It would be 1000 hands that he bets (and aren't tied).



Indeed, just saying that would take a LOOONNG time.

Quote:

There would probably need to be some sort of time limit to prevent him from just sitting there and not betting when it becomes clear that he's going to lose (1000 hands takes a long time if you're only betting 3 hands a shoe) but I'm sure that something reasonable could be worked out.

Also, in another post, he has claimed that he has played over 2000 sessions in his life. How could 1000 hands be 25% of his total bets made? The guy makes 2 bets per session? None of this adds up.



I thought he'd said it was around 3-4,000 hands to get that 53% rate.

No defence here, I'm just saying if he's the real deal, there's no point taking the bet you describe. If he's not the real deal, he'll never take the bet anyways. It proves little either way.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
soxfan
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February 18th, 2014 at 7:23:32 PM permalink
Yup, time for Guinness and cashews, again, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 18th, 2014 at 7:35:40 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

No defence here, I'm just saying if he's the real deal, there's no point taking the bet you describe.



No point? The point would be having over a 60% chance of winning an even-money $10,000 bet. (assuming a 53.5% strike rate)
gr8player
gr8player
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February 22nd, 2014 at 8:30:55 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

My bet selection process had me hitting at a better-than 53% rate. (I said "had" because my last trip, this past Thursday night/Friday, my strike rate was at a minus 4...roughly 46%. Hey, play this game long enough, you'll see days where all your 8s are getting eaten up by 9s.)

I'm still very comfortable, both with my strike rates and my method of play. Why? Because I still managed a 4-unit profit over the two sessions even with my poor-than-average strike rate. I am rather adept at bet-size manipulation (read: MM), so these minor glitches in my strike rates serve only to lengthen my session time.

Next week, my strike rates will be over 50%, and I will, gladly, put money on that.



That quoted post was made in reference to my last AC trip two weeks ago. (Sidenote: I was unable to go to AC last week due to the snowstorm Thursday night/Friday morning.)

My strike rates were unusually low, and I was rather confident of a variance upturn at my next trip. You see, my friends, I am playing this game, my way, the very same way, for a very long time.

The results of this week's Borgata trip:

Thursday night 9:30 P.M. buy-in

First shoe I was a +3, winning 9 bets and losing 6. I was never losing, and, thusly, never had to rise above the first level of my "Gr8Player's Progression"...google it for more info on it...so, basically, just flat-betting I was up 3 units. Next shoe finished at a -1, winning 5 bets while losing 6. (Sidenote: Lousy shoe for me, that's why there were only 11 plays.) I quit at that point; why?:

1.) A win is a win. I'll take it.
2.) It was almost 12 midnight, and I didn't want to turn into a pumpkin right there at the table. LOL No, rather, my Thursday's begin early at 7 AM and then the long drive to AC after work, so I try not to extend my Thursday night sessions. Tired players make tired mistakes, and you all know me well enough by now to know that I don't put myself into losing situations.

Totals for session: Won 14, Lost 12 for a +2 units and a 54% strike rate

Friday afternoon 12:45 buy-in

First shoe (mid-shoe) I won 6 bets and lost 4 (darn...I was 5 and 1 at one point, but finished up at 2-over). Second shoe I broke even with a 7 and 7 (no, not the drink). There was no 3rd shoe, I had to pick up a gift for my wife, I could always buy back in later, as I did:

Friday afternoon 3:00 buy-in

Oh, boy. I couldn't get a seat, and as I'm standing there I'm watching my plays hitting to the tune of 6 W vs 3 L. Darn it! I was just about to leave the area when a women gets up, so I take here seat. I made no other bet at that shoe, it was almost over anyhow, and, as it turns out, I would've split the last two bets, anyhow.

So, now here comes the next shoe:

I win 13 out of 18 bets! Yes, even for my play, that's very, very good. And I really felt great about it because I wasn't going to buy in after I had missed my winners from the prior shoe. Whenever I hit a shoe that good, I take the money and run.

Totals for Friday's two session:

I won 26 bets and lost 16, for a +10 and a whopping 72% strike rate.

Trip totals:

W 40 L 28
+12 units
59% strike rate
All accomplished flat-betting

Now, I post this not to brag. Who would I be bragging to, anyway?

Rather, I post it to make a point.

I predicted it two weeks earlier. I figured for a variance upturn, and upturn it did. My plays do not hit at the 46% of that last trip, if they did, well, frankly, they wouldn't be MY plays.

Now, they don't hit at 59% either. But, over the long run, 53 - 54% is just perfect.

Have a wonderful day.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 8:54:36 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

That quoted post was made in reference to my last AC trip two weeks ago. (Sidenote: I was unable to go to AC last week due to the snowstorm Thursday night/Friday morning.)

My strike rates were unusually low, and I was rather confident of a variance upturn at my next trip. You see, my friends, I am playing this game, my way, the very same way, for a very long time.

The results of this week's Borgata trip:

Thursday night 9:30 P.M. buy-in

First shoe I was a +3, winning 9 bets and losing 6. I was never losing, and, thusly, never had to rise above the first level of my "Gr8Player's Progression"...google it for more info on it...so, basically, just flat-betting I was up 3 units. Next shoe finished at a -1, winning 5 bets while losing 6. (Sidenote: Lousy shoe for me, that's why there were only 11 plays.) I quit at that point; why?:

1.) A win is a win. I'll take it.
2.) It was almost 12 midnight, and I didn't want to turn into a pumpkin right there at the table. LOL No, rather, my Thursday's begin early at 7 AM and then the long drive to AC after work, so I try not to extend my Thursday night sessions. Tired players make tired mistakes, and you all know me well enough by now to know that I don't put myself into losing situations.

Totals for session: Won 14, Lost 12 for a +2 units and a 54% strike rate

Friday afternoon 12:45 buy-in

First shoe (mid-shoe) I won 6 bets and lost 4 (darn...I was 5 and 1 at one point, but finished up at 2-over). Second shoe I broke even with a 7 and 7 (no, not the drink). There was no 3rd shoe, I had to pick up a gift for my wife, I could always buy back in later, as I did:

Friday afternoon 3:00 buy-in

Oh, boy. I couldn't get a seat, and as I'm standing there I'm watching my plays hitting to the tune of 6 W vs 3 L. Darn it! I was just about to leave the area when a women gets up, so I take here seat. I made no other bet at that shoe, it was almost over anyhow, and, as it turns out, I would've split the last two bets, anyhow.

So, now here comes the next shoe:

I win 13 out of 18 bets! Yes, even for my play, that's very, very good. And I really felt great about it because I wasn't going to buy in after I had missed my winners from the prior shoe. Whenever I hit a shoe that good, I take the money and run.

Totals for Friday's two session:

I won 26 bets and lost 16, for a +10 and a whopping 72% strike rate.

Trip totals:

W 40 L 28
+12 units
59% strike rate
All accomplished flat-betting

Now, I post this not to brag. Who would I be bragging to, anyway?

Rather, I post it to make a point.

I predicted it two weeks earlier. I figured for a variance upturn, and upturn it did. My plays do not hit at the 46% of that last trip, if they did, well, frankly, they wouldn't be MY plays.

Now, they don't hit at 59% either. But, over the long run, 53 - 54% is just perfect.

Have a wonderful day.

I flipped silver dollar the other day, it landed on heads 77 times in a row. The Leprechaun I found, predicted this would happen.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
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February 22nd, 2014 at 8:57:35 AM permalink
Congrats gr8!

(Typo on the Friday strike rate 26-16 is 62%)
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2014 at 9:36:32 AM permalink
Quote: EdgeLooker

Congrats gr8!

(Typo on the Friday strike rate 26-16 is 62%)

No congrats to me? My story is just as true as his is.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 22nd, 2014 at 9:46:19 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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February 22nd, 2014 at 11:22:16 AM permalink
Nah, fellas, that's not fair game......

......you are, in effect, calling me a liar.

I will (and do) accept much from this forum, as I am fully aware of the (un)popularity of many of my views on gaming, but I will not accept your attempts to label me as a liar.

Maybe you need to speak with the Asian lady that sat on the chair to my right during that good last shoe yesterday afternoon, who first tried literally to pry my Bac scorecard out of my hands, and then, failing that, asked me what the writing on the bottom half was all about.

She not only witnessed my play; she "hopped aboard" mid-way through the shoe.

Think about it for a minute:

If you saw a player making rather selective bets and hitting almost all of them, especially at the second half of the shoe, what would you do? You see, my first group of seven...again, if you don't understand that, google my progression....ended with 4W and 3L, so a +1. From that point on, however, I went 9W against only 2L. By the end of the shoe, everyone was "all aboard".

(Sidenote: In reality, I could've given her my scorecard....she'd never have figured out what I was doing and how I came upon my bets anyhow. And I don't save them anymore, I only rip them up after I record the results in my ledger.)
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 22nd, 2014 at 11:44:24 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Nah, fellas, that's not fair game......

......you are, in effect, calling me a liar.



Well, you claim to have a strike rate in the range of 53 to 54 percent, but you won't put your money where your mouth is. If this was the truth, you would gladly bet on it.

So, no one is calling you a liar. They are just pointing out that most of what you say are lies.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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February 22nd, 2014 at 12:00:24 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

So, no one is calling you a liar. They are just pointing out that most of what you say are lies.



Priceless, AxiomOfChoice, absolutely priceless. You, my friend, have your way with words.
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
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February 22nd, 2014 at 12:06:59 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I flipped silver dollar the other day, it landed on heads 77 times in a row. The Leprechaun I found, predicted this would happen.



Quote: AxelWolf

No congrats to me? My story is just as true as his is.



lol

OT, but the other day I was playing BJ here in South Korea. To my left was a nice older gentleman from Ireland, complete with strong accent. We struck up a conversation as he won the poker tournament last weekend. We were having a good time, whenever he had a blackjack, we would say, "the ol' luck of the Irish" lol.

Anyway, upon dealer change, a younger Korean male starts dealing at the table, and he speaks English with get this- a slight Irish accent. So now the old guy is thinking he is just trying to make fun of him and says to the dealer, so you think you are a funny guy? etc, etc. Dealer doesn't know what he is talking abut, old man explains. Then the dealer tells us he learned English while studying abroad in Ireland, lol. They hit it off great after that, exchanging stories about Ireland, lol.
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 12:31:36 PM permalink
gr8,

Your baccarat plays is fine and just about right. The short and narrow is the way to go. Don't know about your actual plays and how you record your cards but keep doing what you are doing. Especially in terms of just flat betting. Something egalite/RolexWatch will never understand and achieve.

If you maintain that kind of discipline when you are in Vegas at a $100 table, you will do very well. Speaking of Borgata they need to open up more of their damn tables especially the ones with the Pair Betting. Too many flock to those EZ bac ones which are a time drag.

And where is egalite/RolexWatch to by pass his ban with a proxy? LOL. I am sure he would be popping up soon with his extravagant loonie bin stories of pulling in 20K winning 900 of his 901 sessions within three days. I find those Peter Keating Look At Me triumphs quite inspiring along with his obsession of hookers and sleeping pills.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 12:40:25 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Nah, fellas, that's not fair game......

......you are, in effect, calling me a liar.

I will (and do) accept much from this forum, as I am fully aware of the (un)popularity of many of my views on gaming, but I will not accept your attempts to label me as a liar.

Maybe you need to speak with the Asian lady that sat on the chair to my right during that good last shoe yesterday afternoon, who first tried literally to pry my Bac scorecard out of my hands, and then, failing that, asked me what the writing on the bottom half was all about.

She not only witnessed my play; she "hopped aboard" mid-way through the shoe.

Think about it for a minute:

If you saw a player making rather selective bets and hitting almost all of them, especially at the second half of the shoe, what would you do? You see, my first group of seven...again, if you don't understand that, google my progression....ended with 4W and 3L, so a +1. From that point on, however, I went 9W against only 2L. By the end of the shoe, everyone was "all aboard".

(Sidenote: In reality, I could've given her my scorecard....she'd never have figured out what I was doing and how I came upon my bets anyhow. And I don't save them anymore, I only rip them up after I record the results in my ledger.)




This is like proving Santa Claus is real, because Easter Bunny saw him too.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 12:41:53 PM permalink
soxfan, if you are seeing this, I need some Guinness and cashews too! hey hey!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 1:00:01 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

This is like proving Santa Claus is real, because Easter Bunny saw him too.



I hear that the tooth fairy has a 58% strike rate at baccarat.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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February 22nd, 2014 at 2:16:37 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

gr8,

Your baccarat plays is fine and just about right. The short and narrow is the way to go. Don't know about your actual plays and how you record your cards but keep doing what you are doing. Especially in terms of just flat betting.



Hello, D-man, I trust all is well with you, my friend.

Yes, the "short and narrow"...frankly, the simpler one's plan is, the more likely to both succeed and flourish. Comfortability comes with familiarity.

As to "how I record my cards", it's not hieroglyphics by any means, but my abbreviations and circles would serve to confuse the avg player.

Lastly, as to the "flat-betting"....I do, for the most part, flat-bet. That is because of my strike rates; I'll seek to adjust my bet sizes only during those times where my plays are hitting well-below avg.

It is in those instances where I'll utilize my conservative progression, and that'll serve to ''right the ship" insofar as I would still eke out a minor victory even in the face of any below-avg strike rate session.

(Sidenote: And, by "minor victory", I mean that I'll gladly accept "even" and deem it as victorious in those more-difficult sessions. Why? Because "loss avoidance" is a win in my book, seen as fending off my variance downturns as best as possible. And, my friend, when you're able to that successfully, all that you're left with is the much-easier winning sessions.)

As always, I wish you the very best of it. Stay well.
soxfan
soxfan
Joined: Oct 10, 2013
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February 22nd, 2014 at 5:02:33 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

soxfan, if you are seeing this, I need some Guinness and cashews too! hey hey!



Zeus willing, the john-O will soon return to cotinue his feud with the gr8888888one and provide us all with more entertainments, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 5:14:19 PM permalink
Quote: soxfan

Zeus willing, the john-O will soon return to cotinue his feud with the gr8888888one and provide us all with more entertainments, hey hey.



We need Peter Keating back asap. His psychotic obsessive puppy love envious rants are second to none.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2014 at 6:07:59 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player


Maybe you need to speak with the Asian lady that sat on the chair to my right during that good last shoe yesterday afternoon,

AHHH the old, Asian lady sitting next to me defense. I like it, its adds 100% legitimacy to your story, I'm sorry if I ever doubted you. That's all we ever wanted is real proof you really even play Bac.

BTW. 2 Asian ladies seen my Leprechaun. I wish you would have been there

We both need to be careful however, there is a roomer going around all Asians cheat.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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February 22nd, 2014 at 6:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

We need Peter Keating back asap. His psychotic obsessive puppy love envious rants are second to none.



I'm afraid you'll have to find him on another forum. He's burned his bridges here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2014 at 6:27:27 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm afraid you'll have to find him on another forum. He's burned his bridges here.

How is that possible ? VPN = new person. How can you avoid that?

I just hope when he dose come back he makes his name AxelsLeprochon or gr8AsiansLie
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
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February 22nd, 2014 at 8:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm afraid you'll have to find him on another forum. He's burned his bridges here.



He is a very sneaky little bugger! Peter Keating will surely find a way to weasel his way back in here. Yet I am sure you guys will catch him once again with his hands in the cookie jar because of his obsession with gr8. Peter is too vile to hide his usual MO.
Walkinshaw30t
Walkinshaw30t
Joined: Apr 11, 2013
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February 23rd, 2014 at 2:33:50 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player



Totals for session: Won 14, Lost 12 for a +2 units and a 54% strike rate





Were you at the second level of your gr8s progression at this stage?
Time will tell
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:00:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

AHHH the old, Asian lady sitting next to me defense. I like it, its adds 100% legitimacy to your story, I'm sorry if I ever doubted you. That's all we ever wanted is real proof you really even play Bac.



Sorry, Axel, but that's the truth of it. She was Asian, though not old, and she was rather insistent on finding out about my bet selection process. That, my friend, is the truth it, but you're certainly entitled to your interpretation of same.

Quote: AxelWolf

BTW. 2 Asian ladies seen my Leprechaun.



Yes, and I'd heard that they both commented about how unusually tiny it was.....LOL
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:19:36 AM permalink
Quote: Walkinshaw30t

Were you at the second level of your gr8s progression at this stage?



Hello, Walkinshaw30t, I trust all is well with you.

No, I never had any need for the second level of my progression. The primary (or first) level was sufficient, and is identical, frankly, to simply flat-betting.

My progression has me adjusting my bets slightly higher only after any loss of 3 or more after a series of seven consecutive bets placed, so:

7W v 0L = +7
6W v 1L = +5
5W v 2L = +3
4W v 3L = +1

Obviously, winning series all, so we remain at our primary level.

However, let's look at the inverse:

7L v 0W = -7 move up to next level
6L v 1W = -5 move up to next level
5L v 2W = -3 move up to next level

Those are losing series', and we move to the next level until recoup. Now, you'll notice one losing series omitted for that list, the 4L v 3W = -1; in that instance, I remain at the same level. I will not adjust levels after such any minor loss.

Regarding any raised levels, we return to the primary level immediately upon recoup. For instance:

5L v 2W = -3 so we move to level #2. Now, at level 2 we go:

W L W W = +2W = +4 units = +1 (after recoup of our -3 from our primary level)

Again, if one were inclined to learn more of my "Gr8Player's Progression", one need only perform an internet search of it.

(Sidenote: I have added a "parlay option" to my progression, as I've always been a fan of timely parlays, especially when my wins are coming "paired"/"clustered".)

Thanks for your interest, Walkinshaw30t...stay well.
Bmayo319
Bmayo319
Joined: Feb 23, 2014
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Sorry, Axel, but that's the truth of it. She was Asian, though not old, and she was rather insistent on finding out about my bet selection process. That, my friend, is the truth it, but you're certainly entitled to your interpretation of same.



Yes, and I'd heard that they both commented about how unusually tiny it was.....LOL




Gr8 player for president!
DeMango
DeMango
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:43:47 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Yes, and I'd heard that they both commented about how unusually tiny it was.....LOL



Insult of the day! Well played oh great one!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

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