discflicker
discflicker
Joined: Jan 1, 2011
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January 6th, 2011 at 12:53:14 PM permalink
There are only 3 ways to win in gaming:

1) Cheat
2) Be really, lucky and then quit for the rest of your life
3) Be on the other side of the table

Lets break this down:

1) Cheat -- just forget about it

2) Be really lucky and then quit for the rest of your life --

I knew a man named Dowey Loomis. He played drums in theaters before they invented sound in the "talkies". He was warned that his job was at risk by Bennie Goodman, followed his advice and went West to seek out a job with a future. When out in California, he tried all kinds of jobs and even tried his hand at digging for gold. When he was out prospecting, he became aware of "The Chinese Lottery". He bought one $1 ticket one time... the only gamble he ever made in his life, and hit it for $15,000 which back in the 1930s was like a million today.

Dewey Loomis moved back to his home here in Michigan, bought a beautiful piece of land where the Pine and Manistee rivers meet, and set up a fishing boat rental business. You will never meet a happier man in your life. Dewey was full of cheer and good vibes. He never made another bet till the day he died at the ripe age of 103.

Well, he did it, he beat the house. For the rest of the poor suckers who try our hands at gaming, he sets the perfect example of the dream all casinos want everyone to believe in. Dreams, and that is all they are. Lies is a better word for it. For every Dewey there are 15,000 suckers who want to be him.


3) Get on the other side of the table

For the rest of us poor slobs, there is no way to beat the house. And the longer we keep playing and trying, the more we WILL loose.

This is a forum for smart people, but only idiots really believe they can actually win; either they don't believe in math, or they feel it doesn't apply to them, even over a long period of time. They believe in magic. They believe they're special, and Fortuna will give them special favors throughout their lives. Dreamers.

These are the guys that read books about winning systems and sit there in the corner writing down dice throw histories on pieces of paper. These are the poor suckers who you see every day shucking their hard earned money away to the smiling house.

The other side of the table... where is that? Lets call it the gaming business. A great business indeed because there is another sucker born every minute. Actually, there's another person born every minute who might learn math before or after they learn how to gamble. At that point, it becomes a matter of intelligence.


So what is my point? It is simple: Once a sane person understands what gaming is really about, he needs to make a few choices:

1) Am I going to believe in magic and keep playing with hard-earned money hoping to win?
2) Am I going to believe in reality and only play with money I can afford to loose (if at all)?

If you’re not stupid, you will pick number 2 (or just never gamble again). OK, now that you have decided that gaming is just for entertainment how do you make bets?

And now finally, we can start talking about systems not geared toward beating the house, but to MAXIMIZE YOUR PLAY TIME. And now, the entire purpose of gaming systems and what they try to accomplish gets changed around.

The house does not want anyone to know these things. Only smart gamers realize this.

The casinos LOVE these other guys.


So, I finally have a WINNING SYSTEM to discuss. I will bet anyone that this system WILL WIN more in the long term over the house than any other system. Ready?

Walk into a casino and play craps making minimum bets on the pass line. Have your evil twin do the same thing, but have him betting on the don-t pass line. Make sure that your bets are small enough such that 1/36th of their cost does not exceed the price of free drinks over the time your play.

There. you just beat the house the only way possible. Other than to be the house, that is.


marty
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 6th, 2011 at 2:21:55 PM permalink
Incorrect.

A betting system can help: In sports/horse betting, poker, blackjack, others. It depends on how you define "system" When the count is high in blackjack, I bet more, that's my system.

Not sure what you're trying to say...
ElectricDreams
ElectricDreams
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January 6th, 2011 at 2:27:45 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Not sure what you're trying to say...



That you should always bring an evil twin to gamble with you, duh.

Owning a casino or otherwise being involved in the gaming industry is definitely the only way to surefire way "come out ahead". However, that could be said for any job, really, couldn't it?
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2011 at 4:16:00 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

and hit it for $15,000 which back in the 1930s was like a million today.



Nope, about $250,000 is a lot closer. As for the rest of what you said, speak for yourself, cause you sure aren't speaking for me.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
mkl654321
mkl654321
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January 6th, 2011 at 4:27:21 PM permalink
I could mention the fact that thousands of advantage players have done and are doing exactly what you say can't be done, but I have the strange feeling that you'll just say that advantage players are a myth. So I won't mention it.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 6th, 2011 at 5:31:34 PM permalink
Quote: discflicker

There are only 3 ways to win in gaming:

1) Cheat
2) Be really, lucky and then quit for the rest of your life
3) Be on the other side of the table



Incorrect. Sports betting can be beaten and you can be a winning player in poker. If you play craps and can find a 10xs odds game you could put up $100 with a house edge of less than 2 cents. Even a little dice influence could flip that.

You are correct that the odds are usually with the house, but the APs on this board do know when they are not.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
discflicker
discflicker
Joined: Jan 1, 2011
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January 6th, 2011 at 5:33:14 PM permalink
Wow, I'm not getting the warm reception I thought I would get from these words of wisdom....
OK, How's about...

"All betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own."

Does that sound familiar to y'all?

Do you guys really think you can win without cheating somehow just by varying your wagers in a random set of events?

Poker is way different, players can alter the playfield. But in games like roulette and craps? If your counting cards in BJ ok, you have an advantage. Cheater!
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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January 7th, 2011 at 10:35:45 AM permalink
Quote: discflicker

There are only 3 ways to win in gaming:
For the rest of us poor slobs, there is no way to beat the house. And the longer we keep playing and trying, the more we WILL loose.



Why do so many posters not know how to spell "lose"? Maybe it's such a hateful word that people want to misspell it.
Any way, mkl, weaselman and I have been over and over this. Especially in craps, high variance ensures that some players will be ahead, even over a very large number of bets. This does not mean that they are BEATING THE HOUSE, in the sense of gaining a positive expectation, but that they are "outliers" at the "good" tail of the distribution. Then there's the issue of "advantage play", but I'm not going there.

Quote: discflicker

This is a forum for smart people, but only idiots really believe they can actually win; either they don't believe in math, or they feel it doesn't apply to them, even over a long period of time. They believe in magic. They believe they're special, and Fortuna will give them special favors throughout their lives. Dreamers.



There's math, and then there's math. The ev is not the only issue. Suffice it to say that no betting system can provide a positive expectation from a series of negative-expectation bets, and that the more bets you make, the less likely you are to be ahead.

Quote: discflicker

These are the guys that read books about winning systems and sit there in the corner writing down dice throw histories on pieces of paper. These are the poor suckers who you see every day shucking their hard earned money away to the smiling house.



There is a lot of belief in various fallacies, based on misunderstanding of independent, random events and the patterns that they can, and do, produce. "Hot" and "Cold" craps tables, numbers becoming "due" after not rolling for a while, trends in the past indicating a temporary change in outcome probabilities -- are touted by some as ways to gain an edge.

Quote: discflicker

So what is my point? It is simple: Once a sane person understands what gaming is really about, he needs to make a few choices:

1) Am I going to believe in magic and keep playing with hard-earned money hoping to win?
2) Am I going to believe in reality and only play with money I can afford to loose (if at all)?



Play with loose change that you can afford to lose? >:-)

Quote: discflicker

And now finally, we can start talking about systems not geared toward beating the house, but to MAXIMIZE YOUR PLAY TIME. And now, the entire purpose of gaming systems and what they try to accomplish gets changed around.

The house does not want anyone to know these things. Only smart gamers realize this.



Maximizing one's play time is not everyone's goal.

Quote: discflicker

So, I finally have a WINNING SYSTEM to discuss. I will bet anyone that this system WILL WIN more in the long term over the house than any other system. Ready?

Walk into a casino and play craps making minimum bets on the pass line. Have your evil twin do the same thing, but have him betting on the don-t pass line. Make sure that your bets are small enough such that 1/36th of their cost does not exceed the price of free drinks over the time your play.

There. you just beat the house the only way possible. Other than to be the house, that is.
marty



Wrong! You and your evil twin are paying twice as much as you would pay by yourself, since you are each making a line bet. Your expected loss is therefore 1.4% of your combined bet handle, whereas if you played alone your expected loss is half that. Besides, you have guaranteed that you can never win a single bet, only push or lose on the 12. Pretty exciting stuff! You have succeeded in removing almost all the variance, which is the only thing that gives the player any chance to win. The only variance remaining is the number of times you lose to the 12 and your evil twin gets a push. If you want to drink for free that badly, go for it!

Happy drinking,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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January 7th, 2011 at 10:50:55 AM permalink
Quote: discflicker

So, I finally have a WINNING SYSTEM to discuss. I will bet anyone that this system WILL WIN more in the long term over the house than any other system. Ready?

Walk into a casino and play craps making minimum bets on the pass line. Have your evil twin do the same thing, but have him betting on the don-t pass line. Make sure that your bets are small enough such that 1/36th of their cost does not exceed the price of free drinks over the time your play.



Nah, there are many other ways to get free drinks in Vegas that don't involve losing $5 every 36 hands (about 90 minutes on average). You can do way better with 25c bar-top VP. Buy in for $100, get your drink from the bartender, and then play a few hands whenever the bartender is nearby. Meanwhile, have a pleasant conversation (sitting down) with your evil twin. You'll be able to get many more drinks in the same amount of time because the bartender is right there, and your expected loss is far less than $3/hour.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 7th, 2011 at 11:06:45 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Nah, there are many other ways to get free drinks in Vegas that don't involve losing $5 every 36 hands (about 90 minutes on average). You can do way better with 25c bar-top VP. Buy in for $100, get your drink from the bartender, and then play a few hands whenever the bartender is nearby. Meanwhile, have a pleasant conversation (sitting down) with your evil twin. You'll be able to get many more drinks in the same amount of time because the bartender is right there, and your expected loss is far less than $3/hour.



Even better--nickel slots (or VP), one nickel at a time. Slowly. I've observed many Vegas locals/fleas/atheists/women who don't shave their legs/people who don't drive trucks (sorry, guys, I couldn't resist) using that exact strategy to consume beaucoup alcohol for an EV of about -$0.005/drink. I hasten to add that they DO tip the cocktail waitress every time, because if they don't, she'll come by about as often as a total solar eclipse.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

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