OnceDear's Method

Quote: Mental

All I have is blind luck and a high percentage returned as free slot play. I am not screwed because I don't have to beat any game to make a profit.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Mental

All I have is blind luck and a high percentage returned as free slot play. I am not screwed because I don't have to beat any game to make a profit.

I have a question if you don't mind my asking

I assume you are saying that if you pump in a certain amount (a lot I would guess) they will give you enough free play to be profitable

correct________?

but why would they do that________?_________doesn't that mean that anyone who does that will be profitable_________?

or maybe you have to know the exact cutoff point to get the maximum free play

or maybe you have to play the machine in a way to lose the least - with some expertise

please explain_________thanks___________I don't know much about machines

Quote: AxelWolf

It's easy to provide results that make it appear as if you are winning when in fact you aren't.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf

It's easy to provide results that make it appear as if you are winning when in fact you aren't.
link to original post

Do I have to give the money back? LOL
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: 100xOdds

"Beware. The earth is NOT flat.
Hit and run is not a winning strategy, Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy,
Progressives are not a winning strategy.
Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free."

Ok OD, i'll bite.
Why are progressives not a winning strategy?
When high enough, it's +EV.
link to original post

OD is discussing what is termed a progressive betting strategy. He is not referring to betting on ‘progressive jackpots’
link to original post

So he's basically double posting about Pressing is Not a winning strategy.
He could have shortened his Sig by saying 'Pressing into trends and Progressive betting is not a winning strategy."
:)
link to original post

Thanks for the feedback. I'll tweak my sig to remove ambiguity. The Earth is still not flat :o)
link to original post

That's good because I was worried about your integrity especially your first commandment: hit and run which you have been doing since the start of this thread. BTW if anyone cares, I personally believe and execute the "hit and run" strategy.

tuttigym
link to original post

My Sig relies on a shared definition of the ambiguous phrase "not a winning strategy"

If I were sentenced to death unless I could muster $1,000 ransom to buy my freedom and I had exactly £990 in my pocket, would, say a session of Euro roulette at $10 minimum wager, where I wagered $10 on each of the first 35 numbers be a winning strategy? My probability of winning $10 on the first spin, and thus surviving would be 35/37=94.5% and even if I lost, I'd still have $640 of bankroll.
Would it be an even better winning strategy if I Martingaled $10 on red? Playing thus would give me a roughly 99% chance of winning the $10 required to survive and I could be no worse off if I lost the whole $990 bankroll. A Win: ANY WIN, OF ANY AMOUNT over $10 would be a far, far greater value than any amount that I could possibly lose.

Well, for the purposes of my Sig I still would insist that these are not winning strategies because the objective is not to win more often on average, but to be +EV on average.

'nuff said for now.
link to original post

Quote: tuttigym

Your example is beyond extreme and probably would not mirror any sort of reality.

So you are posting that if one wins more often on average that he would/could be -EV? I guess that would depend on the size of winnings vs losses. My follow up questions are: What is the difference between hit and run wins vs just leaving the game up for any session? What is the time differential between H&R and leaving up?

tuttigym
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf

It's easy to provide results that make it appear as if you are winning when in fact you aren't.
link to original post

Do I have to give the money back? LOL
link to original post

Again, I cordially request that you don't hijack this thread.
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

I have more to add but don't have time right now. I have to get my ass out to some B&M casinos.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf

I have more to add but don't have time right now. I have to get my ass out to some B&M casinos.
link to original post

Better you than me. Going to a brick and mortar Casino is like driving a Model T when you have a Ferrari in the garage as far as I'm concerned.
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

Said the guy that claims in his best scenario makes him enough to make a few hundred a month.
link to original post

Quote: Dieter

Misters AxelWolf & EvenBob;

This recent chatter is not germane to OnceDear's Betting Method.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf

Said the guy that claims in his best scenario makes him enough to make a few hundred a month.
link to original post

You do not know how much I make a month because I've never said. So all you're doing is guessing, and it's not even educated guessing. You have this whole fantasy built up about me and then you act like it's the truth. It's not.
link to original post

Quote: Dieter

Misters AxelWolf & EvenBob;

This recent chatter is not germane to OnceDear's Betting Method.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Dieter

Misters AxelWolf & EvenBob;

This recent chatter is not germane to OnceDear's Betting Method.
link to original post

What is this betting method exactly. How do I know if it's germane or not if I don't even know what the betting method is.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Dieter

Misters AxelWolf & EvenBob;

This recent chatter is not germane to OnceDear's Betting Method.
link to original post

What is this betting method exactly. How do I know if it's germane or not if I don't even know what the betting method is.
link to original post

noun
1: A means or manner of procedure, especially a regular and systematic way of accomplishing something.
2: Orderly arrangement of parts or steps to accomplish an end.
3: The procedures and techniques characteristic of a particular discipline or field of knowledge.

I might not have yet defined my method to your satisfaction, or to axelwolf's. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that your guys conversation about your chosen dick waving chatter has absolutely nothing to do in this thread. I believe that you are both defying Dieter's reminder.

I'll describe, demonstrate and define my method as and when and how I see fit. If I want to discuss other methods and their value, I'll seek out the appropriate thread and contribute there.

Thank you to other members who have complied with my request.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Your example is beyond extreme and probably would not mirror any sort of reality.

So you are posting that if one wins more often on average that he would/could be -EV? I guess that would depend on the size of winnings vs losses. My follow up questions are: What is the difference between hit and run wins vs just leaving the game up for any session? What is the time differential between H&R and leaving up?

tuttigym
link to original post

I'm sorry Tuttigym. I find your grammar and terminology too difficult to read with any certainty as to what you mean,

OK, mirroring reality a little more. It's mortgage day. $1000 is due and you only have $800. Don't pay in full and you have repercussions but there's a casino in front of you. You can probably win and make up the shortfall with some 80% or so probability.

In the case of the guy placing $10 on each of 35 roulette numbers, by far the likeliest outcome will be that he wins $10. But that's countered by the unlikely outcome of losing $350. Before the wager is resolved, his expected value is a loss of 350 x 1/37= $9.46 Which, while being his expected loss, is an impossible loss.

Expected Value only exists before a sequence of wins or losses. After the event you have realised value. A player could have 9 x $10 wins and 1x $100 loss and have a realised overall loss in spite of winning more often than losing. Similarly he could have 9 x $10 losses and 1 x $100 win and realise an overall profit in spite of losing more often than winning.

I don't understand the expression 'leaving the game up'. I don't understand your use of the expression 'Leaving up'. So I cannot answer your questions.

It makes zero difference to expected value whether you leave the game for one millisecond or one decade.
link to original post

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Your example is beyond extreme and probably would not mirror any sort of reality.

So you are posting that if one wins more often on average that he would/could be -EV? I guess that would depend on the size of winnings vs losses. My follow up questions are: What is the difference between hit and run wins vs just leaving the game up for any session? What is the time differential between H&R and leaving up?

tuttigym
link to original post

I'm sorry Tuttigym. I find your grammar and terminology too difficult to read with any certainty as to what you mean,

OK, mirroring reality a little more. It's mortgage day. $1000 is due and you only have $800. Don't pay in full and you have repercussions but there's a casino in front of you. You can probably win and make up the shortfall with some 80% or so probability.

In the case of the guy placing $10 on each of 35 roulette numbers, by far the likeliest outcome will be that he wins $10. But that's countered by the unlikely outcome of losing $350. Before the wager is resolved, his expected value is a loss of 350 x 1/37= $9.46 Which, while being his expected loss, is an impossible loss.

Expected Value only exists before a sequence of wins or losses. After the event you have realised value. A player could have 9 x $10 wins and 1x $100 loss and have a realised overall loss in spite of winning more often than losing. Similarly he could have 9 x $10 losses and 1 x $100 win and realise an overall profit in spite of losing more often than winning.

I don't understand the expression 'leaving the game up'. I don't understand your use of the expression 'Leaving up'. So I cannot answer your questions.

It makes zero difference to expected value whether you leave the game for one millisecond or one decade.
link to original post

So, you have never heard of the expression ending a gambling session "up" or "down"? It translates to "winner" or "loser." Do the Brits have some other kind of similar slang? ("Slang" =colloquial terminology)

So, you are telling us that you have a mortgage payment of $1,000 but have only $800 on hand. And you go to the casino to make up the shortfall? Sounds like a personal (gambling) problem, and the solution is the wrong answer.

The thesis regarding "expected value" is an over complicated approach to how one would determine if, as a player, one is a net winner or loser nothing more.

Finally, you still have not defined "hit and run" for the player exiting his game of choice. When, in your mind, is it proper for a player to leave the chosen venue and NOT be a "hit and run" player?

tuttigym
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: OnceDear

noun
1: A means or manner of procedure, especially a regular and systematic way of accomplishing something.
2: Orderly arrangement of parts or steps to accomplish an end.
3: The procedures and techniques characteristic of a particular discipline or field of knowledge.

I might not have yet defined my method to your satisfaction, or to axelwolf's. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that your guys conversation about your chosen dick waving chatter has absolutely nothing to do in this thread. I believe that you are both defying Dieter's reminder.

I'll describe, demonstrate and define my method as and when and how I see fit. If I want to discuss other methods and their value, I'll seek out the appropriate thread and contribute there.

Thank you to other members who have complied with my request.
link to original post

A Gambling/Betting Method implies you have an advantage/+EV. What separates a Gambling/Betting Method from a system? Gambling/Betting Methods can be calculated to show there's +EV. A betting system can't show math that shows an advantage/+EV. It's used by people who are attempting to trick untricable mathematics. That good old-fashioned Gamblers fallacy.

You knew/know this thread would go south considering who and what inspired it.

I know you're a smart clever bloke and you will accomplish whatever you are attempting to prove or disprove, therefore, I'm not all that interested in your logs/reports in this case. Aston Martin or MG?

I was certainly interested in your previous legitimate +EV online play, I wouldn't give details on that, but that was awesome.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Your example is beyond extreme and probably would not mirror any sort of reality.

So you are posting that if one wins more often on average that he would/could be -EV? I guess that would depend on the size of winnings vs losses. My follow up questions are: What is the difference between hit and run wins vs just leaving the game up for any session? What is the time differential between H&R and leaving up?

tuttigym
link to original post

I'm sorry Tuttigym. I find your grammar and terminology too difficult to read with any certainty as to what you mean,

OK, mirroring reality a little more. It's mortgage day. $1000 is due and you only have $800. Don't pay in full and you have repercussions but there's a casino in front of you. You can probably win and make up the shortfall with some 80% or so probability.

In the case of the guy placing $10 on each of 35 roulette numbers, by far the likeliest outcome will be that he wins $10. But that's countered by the unlikely outcome of losing $350. Before the wager is resolved, his expected value is a loss of 350 x 1/37= $9.46 Which, while being his expected loss, is an impossible loss.

Expected Value only exists before a sequence of wins or losses. After the event you have realised value. A player could have 9 x $10 wins and 1x $100 loss and have a realised overall loss in spite of winning more often than losing. Similarly he could have 9 x $10 losses and 1 x $100 win and realise an overall profit in spite of losing more often than winning.

I don't understand the expression 'leaving the game up'. I don't understand your use of the expression 'Leaving up'. So I cannot answer your questions.

It makes zero difference to expected value whether you leave the game for one millisecond or one decade.
link to original post

So, you have never heard of the expression ending a gambling session "up" or "down"? It translates to "winner" or "loser." Do the Brits have some other kind of similar slang? ("Slang" =colloquial terminology)

So, you are telling us that you have a mortgage payment of $1,000 but have only $800 on hand. And you go to the casino to make up the shortfall? Sounds like a personal (gambling) problem, and the solution is the wrong answer.

The thesis regarding "expected value" is an over complicated approach to how one would determine if, as a player, one is a net winner or loser nothing more.

Finally, you still have not defined "hit and run" for the player exiting his game of choice. When, in your mind, is it proper for a player to leave the chosen venue and NOT be a "hit and run" player?

tuttigym
link to original post

Ah. I now recognise 'Leaving up' as 'leaving while ahead'

I have no mortgage or other loans. Thanks for your concern. Nor would I wager with money I couldn't afford to lose.

Expected Value is a pretty important concept. It is the way that AP's determine whether on the weighted balance of risk / reward renders an opportunity worth their while. Even with the most incredibly +EV opportunity, an AP would evaluate and manage his risk of ruin. Many WannaBe APs, including Hit and run advocates, see that an opportunity has a high probability of a win and think that they can just repeatedly take that small risk. EV should be their warning. Such hit and run advocates might think that they can double their bankroll with less than 50% chance of losing it all, on a -EV proposition where probability of any individual losing session is low.

When is it proper to leave the chosen venue and not be a hit and run player?
To each his own. When i used to play small sessions of recreational Blackjack of about an 3/4 hour a week, I would nominally aspire to leave between 30 minutes and 60 minutes, so as to be in time to take my Dad for a beer.I'd generally buy in about £100 and walk out with somewhere between a £100 loss or a £100 profit. It never mattered which because I was playing for recreation. Was I a hit and run player? I'd certainly dash out if i was going to be late for Dad.
There's nothing wrong with playing hit and run. The casinos will be willing to give you and your peers a rematch, for a reason. Their game is +EVHit and run is not in any way advantageous. Indeed, if their is a time and effort cost in visiting an entertainment venue, then you might as well have a visit that gives appropriate recreation time.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: OnceDear

noun
1: A means or manner of procedure, especially a regular and systematic way of accomplishing something.
2: Orderly arrangement of parts or steps to accomplish an end.
3: The procedures and techniques characteristic of a particular discipline or field of knowledge.

I might not have yet defined my method to your satisfaction, or to axelwolf's. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that your guys conversation about your chosen dick waving chatter has absolutely nothing to do in this thread. I believe that you are both defying Dieter's reminder.

I'll describe, demonstrate and define my method as and when and how I see fit. If I want to discuss other methods and their value, I'll seek out the appropriate thread and contribute there.

Thank you to other members who have complied with my request.
link to original post

A Gambling/Betting Method implies you have an advantage/+EV. What separates a Gambling/Betting Method from a system? Gambling/Betting Methods can be calculated to show there's +EV. A betting system can't show math that shows an advantage/+EV. It's used by people who are attempting to trick untricable mathematics. That good old-fashioned Gamblers fallacy.

You knew/know this thread would go south considering who and what inspired it.

I know you're a smart clever bloke and you will accomplish whatever you are attempting to prove or disprove, therefore, I'm not all that interested in your logs/reports in this case. Aston Martin or MG?

I was certainly interested in your previous legitimate +EV online play, I wouldn't give details on that, but that was awesome.
link to original post

Oh dear...... Did someone get the idea that Oncedear's method is +EV?

Nooooooo. It's not. It's really not. This is the BS subforum, isn't it (Betting systems) There is a strong element of BS in my method $:o)
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: OnceDear

Oh dear...... Did someone get the idea that Oncedear's method is +EV?

Nooooooo. It's not. It's really not. This is the BS subforum, isn't it (Betting systems) There is a strong element of BS in my method $:o)
link to original post

Hmm... I don't know why you thought, I thought, you were playing a +EV situation here. I believe I have a good understanding of why you are engaging in this experiment.

What kind of a car guy were you in your youth?

P.S. You are not using a method if you don't have a mathematical advantage, please refer to it as A system you incorrectly call a method.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Anyoops. onwards and upwards. I've yet to report yesterday's session or the several from the day before. Real life got a bit in the way. I'll report on those shortly, but right now, I'm off to start the first session of the day. It will be a winning session.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

You missed an iteration. I thought that you thought that I thought that it was +EV.

Cars..... Well back in 1975, my first car was one of these. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=vauxhall+viva+ha&iax=images&ia=images in French Blue. It cost me £66 and was a rust bucket. It lasted a year and I sold it for £50 with the big ends rattling. Then I had a few of these... https://duckduckgo.com/?q=hilman+imp&iax=images&ia=images They had a generic problem of the head gasket blowing and the design was such that I could remove the engine in less than 15 minutes without a hoist. Just undo a few bolts and push the car away as the rear engine sat on blocks.

Method or system..... ?
There is a consistent, required and repeatable aspect to my play, which is why I always win my sessions. However, I believe it falls short of a system as the method/system does not apply to my play.

Speaking of methods. I see with great sadness that 'Another' method thread got closed at the request of its OP. I speculate that the OP met his inevitable nadir as he was truthfully reporting his wins right up until he crashed and burned. Then faced with the inability to truthfully report his umpteenth winning session, he took the soft option of reporting nothing. I wish him well.

Quote:

That said, he chose to close the discussion of his method over in that thread, so its discussion will not be welcome in this one.

Quote:

Anyoops. onwards and upwards. I've yet to report yesterday's session or the several from the day before. Real life got a bit in the way. I'll report on those shortly, but right now, I'm off to start the first session of the day. It will be a winning session.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: OnceDear

Anyoops. onwards and upwards. I've yet to report yesterday's session or the several from the day before. Real life got a bit in the way. I'll report on those shortly, but right now, I'm off to start the first session of the day. It will be a winning session.
link to original post

Well. As promised I went straight to work, and as so often happens it was a very short session: One wager: One win.

I could have wagered more and won more, but that's by the by. I made my unit. Maybe I'll go back and have a few more winning sessions, but right now I have to remove a hedge and fit a fence. $;o)
link to original post

Quote: billryan

Imagine . I said imagine if everyone was to walk into a casino, put their feet up on the deck, win one hand, and walk out. I tell you, friends- it would be a massacre.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Speaking of methods. I see with great sadness that 'Another' method thread got closed at the request of its OP. I speculate that the OP met his inevitable nadir as he was truthfully reporting his wins right up until he crashed and burned.
link to original post

Quote: odiousgambit

I wish Bob well, generally, but not in this matter. This is exactly the matter of a "freeroll" had there been a bet involved. You can't allow someone to back out for free, I'm sure I don't need to go on. Since there was no bet, I say it still can't be "free" so I am glad you said this and I am piling on. It is outrageous and this piling on is deserved
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Speaking of methods. I see with great sadness that 'Another' method thread got closed at the request of its OP. I speculate that the OP met his inevitable nadir as he was truthfully reporting his wins right up until he crashed and burned. Then faced with the inability to truthfully report his umpteenth winning session, he took the soft option of reporting nothing. I wish him well.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: odiousgambit

I wish Bob well, generally, but not in this matter. This is exactly the matter of a "freeroll" had there been a bet involved. You can't allow someone to back out for free, I'm sure I don't need to go on. Since there was no bet, I say it still can't be "free" so I am glad you said this and I am piling on. It is outrageous and this piling on is deserved
link to original post

I don't know what's outrageous but if you're piling on because you think I crashed and burned, you could not be more wrong if you put your mind to it. The polar opposite happened, it was a spectacular success there was not a single crash, not a single burn, not a single losing session. The entire experiment was a grand accomplishment, and once again your wishful thinking is dashed to the ground. You should be used to that by now.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

That is the spirit. You are a winner. Don't let the other boys get you done. You are special and you are worthy.
Remember- Gawd don't make no junk!
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

TLDR, since session 3, I have been playing just 20p Blackjack. I gave Roulette a miss.
As of this moment, I have completed 21 consecutive sessions.

Sessions Played 21: Sessions Won 21: Session Win Rate 100%

OnceDear's Method just goes on and on.

Here's a little salient fact and hint ...... It's Blackjack, Basic Strategy, NOT card counting. Therefore NO MARQUEE.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: OnceDear

TLDR, since session 3, I have been playing just 20p Blackjack. I gave Roulette a miss.
As of this moment, I have completed 21 consecutive sessions.

Sessions Played 21: Sessions Won 21: Session Win Rate 100%

OnceDear's Method just goes on and on.

Here's a little salient fact and hint ...... It's Blackjack, Basic Strategy, NOT card counting. Therefore NO MARQUEE.
link to original post

Having done some of my chores, I proceeded onto session 22.

Sessions Played 22: Sessions Won 22: Session Win Rate 100%




A bit of to-ing and fro-ing, but I stuck with it and OnceDear's Method prevailed.

Would anyone like me to switch to one of ...
Roulette, Baccarat, SicBo or maybe a live dealer carnival game.

Any questions.....

Shall I up my unit stakes to make it more interesting? After all, a unit is a unit.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Well, This is embarrassing.....

Session 23 now completed. I completed the Blackjack session 'up' by only a quarter of the table minimum bet.

Still. OnceDear's Method prevailed.

Sessions Played 23: Sessions Won 23: Session Win Rate 100%

I think I need to tuck Sessions 24 and 35 under my belt before dinner.

Off we go.
link to original post

Quote: TigerWu

Let's see some hot Sic Bo action...
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: TigerWu

Let's see some hot Sic Bo action...
link to original post

OK. Sic-Bo it is..... Lemme just check that they offer the game.....
link to original post

Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Session Win Rate 100%

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

Quote: lilredrooster

.

could you please start another thread showing me how to win at craps

no dice influencing or anything like that - too hard - if it's even possible

I'm looking for EZ money

I was thinking about maybe a paroli on the iron cross

would that make me some $$$$$____________?

thanks for sharing

.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

The only thing that I know about craps is that it involves dice, some shooters, a table and outcomes to bet on. I've never played it in my life, neither online, nor in bricks and mortar casino. Not a clue about it.
That said, if there's anything like an even money bet ( and I really don't know ) then OnceDear's Method would work on it..
But what's this 'EZ money' of which you speak?
link to original post

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear

The only thing that I know about craps is that it involves dice, some shooters, a table and outcomes to bet on. I've never played it in my life, neither online, nor in bricks and mortar casino. Not a clue about it.
That said, if there's anything like an even money bet ( and I really don't know ) then OnceDear's Method would work on it..
But what's this 'EZ money' of which you speak?
link to original post

that's okay - never mind
EZ money is just a dream I sometimes have
that you can go into a casino with a simple system and win and win and win and win
it's not real

.
link to original post

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear

The only thing that I know about craps is that it involves dice, some shooters, a table and outcomes to bet on. I've never played it in my life, neither online, nor in bricks and mortar casino. Not a clue about it.
That said, if there's anything like an even money bet ( and I really don't know ) then OnceDear's Method would work on it..
But what's this 'EZ money' of which you speak?
link to original post

that's okay - never mind
EZ money is just a dream I sometimes have
that you can go into a casino with a simple system and win and win and win and win
it's not real

.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Session 25 about to start..... I think, maybe baccarat.
link to original post

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: OnceDear

Session 25 about to start..... I think, maybe baccarat.
link to original post

Hmm I'd have to change casino for baccarat at less than £1 table min. Maybe later.

Session 25 shall be low stakes roulette. I might eschew the even money bets for a change. Yes. That's what I'll do.
link to original post