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rektfast
rektfast
Joined: May 9, 2022
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:28:22 PM permalink
Interesting. As previously stated in this thread, a Martingale strategy in VP would require numerous denominations and bet sizes, which most machines "purely coincidentally" don't offer.

As stupid as Rob Singer sounds, he does have a point. If you have $5 left to your name and you can hold either KK or JsKsQs, you hold the KK and try to survive. If you own a gold mine or whatever, play the three to the royal. Who gives a damn?

Bankroll is inseparable from your play strategy. Hitting zero means the game is over. Getting a push can have theoretically infinite EV if your bankroll survives for another spin and you hit a RF or straight flush. I simply cannot comprehend how people don't consider money management part of VP strategy.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:37:29 PM permalink
How many coins are you likely to lose every 500 hands?
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:03:03 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

As an aside, the shuffler in Duel Links is notorious for favoring rare cards over common cards. It is possible that VP shufflers also favor face cards over random trash like 2c and 4d.
link to original post



I reasonably expect the shuffle algorithm for an unregulated game, like "Duel Links", to be somewhat different than what happens in a regulated, licensed video poker gambling machine with its certified, audited, and approved RNG and shuffle algorithm.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:21:27 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.



Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:23:35 PM permalink
You find 101.4% payback machines, and throw enough millions of dollars through it, you'll be a winner! I'm told those machines went the way of the Dodo early this century.
rektfast
rektfast
Joined: May 9, 2022
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:31:22 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Quote: rektfast

People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.



Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
link to original post



Well the generally accepted strategy is perfect play at a full-pay machine plus comps equals a little over 100%. But I disagree that is workable since the house edge becomes more insurmountable the longer you play, it's like running a computer program with a memory leak.

A more accurate metaphor for video poker is that your bankroll is your hit points and you are trying to stay alive, like Dungeons & Dragons. So when you are at half or less bankroll (bloodied), you should alter your strategy to and play more conservatively until you recover closer to full health, whereas if you are already at full bankroll you can play more recklessly to see if it pays off like chasing Royals.

Has anyone tried to teach an artificial intelligence video poker? I'm very curious what they would do.
unJon
unJon
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:36:19 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: rektfast

People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.



Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
link to original post



Well the generally accepted strategy is perfect play at a full-pay machine plus comps equals a little over 100%. But I disagree that is workable since the house edge becomes more insurmountable the longer you play, it's like running a computer program with a memory leak.

A more accurate metaphor for video poker is that your bankroll is your hit points and you are trying to stay alive, like Dungeons & Dragons. So when you are at half or less bankroll (bloodied), you should alter your strategy to and play more conservatively until you recover closer to full health, whereas if you are already at full bankroll you can play more recklessly to see if it pays off like chasing Royals.

Has anyone tried to teach an artificial intelligence video poker? I'm very curious what they would do.
link to original post



Sounds like a sure way to get wrecked fast.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 21st, 2022 at 8:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast



As stupid as Rob Singer sounds, he does have a point. If you have $5 left to your name and you can hold either KK or JsKsQs, you hold the KK and try to survive. If you own a gold mine or whatever, play the three to the royal. Who gives a damn?

link to original post



As stupid as I sound, I do have a point.
If you have $5 left to your name, you cannot afford to play video poker. I don't care one way or the other if you're making optimal holds or playing hunches; a $5 stack falls well short of the clown with arm extended saying you must be this tall to ride.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 8:46:05 PM permalink
Likewise, if someone had a bankroll of $10,000,000 then they wouldn't be playing video poker either since they don't need the damn money.

That last $5 to your name is just an exaggeration, of course. The inverse is also true: if you have a lot of credits on the machine, you could toss a flush and go for four to a straight flush or whatever.

If we define one set of our Martingale strategy as 423 hands with quads as a "win," the required bankroll becomes exponential very quickly. Still, I think that since VP is a skill-based game, Martingale plus VP should be better than just putting your student loan on baccarat.

Are there other bankroll management or betting systems one could apply to VP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_and_Infinite_Games

The problem is that mathematically perfect play treats video poker an infinite game, which it is not due to the house edge. It is a finite game, and for us to "win," we need to define a win condition.
TheCapitalShip
TheCapitalShip
Joined: Aug 14, 2021
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June 21st, 2022 at 10:53:55 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast



If we define one set of our Martingale strategy as 423 hands with quads as a "win," the required bankroll becomes exponential very quickly. Still, I think that since VP is a skill-based game, Martingale plus VP should be better than just putting your student loan on baccarat.

link to original post



Ok, I'll bite here, exactly what are you trying to do?

if we even entertain doing Martingale on VP, you are betting 5120 credits the 11th/423rd hand, where in the world would a VP machine let you bet that much per hand? The bet amounts would get ridiculous very quickly, who has this much wealth that you would want to do this? If they had the bankroll to try this strategy the winning play would be to never even play because what am I doing in the casino betting 5120 on a video poker machine?

Quote: rektfast


Are there other bankroll management or betting systems one could apply to VP?
systems/37153-chasing-quads-instead-of-royals/9/#post853717]link to original post


Why would you even want to do a betting system on VP? Best bankroll management "system" is to have enough that you survive variance if you are playing a +EV game...

Quote: rektfast


The problem is that mathematically perfect play treats video poker an infinite game, which it is not due to the house edge. It is a finite game, and for us to "win," we need to define a win condition.
link to original post


The win condition is simply to play where you know your expected EV is greater than 100% over the long term and have the bankroll to survive the variance.

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