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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 10:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: rektfast

That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
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Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
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That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
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So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?

What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?
camapl
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July 12th, 2022 at 11:30:24 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

High-level poker players change their betting strategy similar to what rektfast has been advocating when they are in tournaments. They will not chase what they perceive as hands in which they have a small EV advantage if the wagers are large and increase their chances of busting out. Why call someone with all your chips when you expect to have only a 51/49 advantage? It's very important to not lose all (or most) of your chips, and the concept of expected value misses that entirely.

This is particularly true when there are pay-out jumps involved (late in the tournament). So, poker players have developed some decision models (such as the Integrated Chip Model) that only weakly consider the EV of the bet (or don't consider it at all) but rather focus on the stack sizes of the players and payout structure.

I recommend that people read some articles or books on advanced poker theory (such as ICM and Game Theory Optimal for tournaments) to understand how EV is not the only criterion when you have a finite stack.

Note: On the other hand, in cash games poker players use EV to make decisions because they can re-buy - i.e., they essentially have infinite stacks to gamble with.
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This is a valid point, in a live poker tournament. At what point in VIDEO POKER can you decide not to bet (more) after seeing some of the cards?
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
camapl
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July 12th, 2022 at 11:33:44 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know of at least two people who play VP for a living and have attempted to help you. In order to accept help, one must be willing to discard one’s strategy. Are you at that point? If not, I only hope that you are BEFORE the money is all gone.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 11:36:32 AM permalink
Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
camapl
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July 12th, 2022 at 11:56:49 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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Sorry, I thought this was your way of asking for help. I stand corrected. Best of luck in real life, with real money.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
Dieter
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July 12th, 2022 at 11:58:18 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
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How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
May the cards fall in your favor.
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 12:02:29 PM permalink
Technical analysis. Most people are performing fundamental analysis of their VP bankroll, but due to house edge it's always going to zero eventually.

So I'm not really proposing a betting system. It's scalping in day trading but applied to the graph created by playing video poker.

Like I said, it is possible to cash out and buy appreciating assets. "Quitting while ahead" is a poor phrase for what you're supposed to do. Really you're coloring up from cheques to something with a positive cash flow.

Algorand staking was a good example of one such appreciating asset that could have counteracted the casino house edge, but they nerfed the staking rewards so that is no longer a successful option.
DRich
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July 12th, 2022 at 2:28:30 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: rektfast

That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
link to original post



I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
link to original post



Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
link to original post



That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
link to original post



So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?



Of course there is. They are called ploppies. No negative connotation intended.


Quote: AlanMendelson


What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?



I call them "my kind of people".
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 2:30:59 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 2:33:58 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: rektfast

That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
link to original post



I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
link to original post



Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
link to original post



That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
link to original post



So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?



Of course there is. They are called ploppies. No negative connotation intended.


Quote: AlanMendelson


What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?



I call them "my kind of people".
link to original post



Okay then. So....

If someone who gambles for entertainment is a ploppie then someone who buys diamonds, cars, cruises and golf memberships is a ploppie to those businesses.
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 2:39:05 PM permalink
Alan is right that there's nothing wrong with win goals.

The problem is people set an arbitrary amount as their goal.

What you should do is set your goal as a percentage of your total bankroll, not just a set amount.

You see what I mean? Saying "I'm going to stop when I make $100" is nonsensical.

But saying "I'll cash out when I'm 15% up" is a workable system
ChumpChange
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July 12th, 2022 at 2:45:14 PM permalink
If you hit 3 Quads within 100 hands, have you hit peak or will you go to $0 trying for a 4th?
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:10:36 PM permalink
Two quads within one hundred hands would merit cashing out.

I was doing a practice run earlier and never hit quads (or anything better) within 940 hands. Our bankroll was annihilated to half of its starting total.

I don't know what you're supposed to do when you run cold like that.

I guess get a day job!
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:11:15 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you hit 3 Quads within 100 hands, have you hit peak or will you go to $0 trying for a 4th?
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That's the risk you take.

Do you want to risk the wins from hitting quad 6s to try for a royal?

It's a personal decision.

It doesnt make you a ploppie.
Dieter
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:14:51 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Alan is right that there's nothing wrong with win goals.

The problem is people set an arbitrary amount as their goal.

What you should do is set your goal as a percentage of your total bankroll, not just a set amount.

You see what I mean? Saying "I'm going to stop when I make $100" is nonsensical.

But saying "I'll cash out when I'm 15% up" is a workable system
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For the sake of argument, my bankroll is $666.
May the cards fall in your favor.
unJon
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:15:22 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
link to original post



Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:19:32 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
link to original post



Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post



Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."

Why even mention this?
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:20:57 PM permalink
Did you get quads twice within 423 hands? That would be a double top and I would sell.

The question is how we convert technical analysis to video poker.

I knew a Korean woman who scalped the 1 second Bitcoin chart with fiber optic Internet and made millions, but I think she's dead now



The good thing about TA is that the fundamentals of what you're trading (like a game of video poker with a house edge) don't matter.
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:27:18 PM permalink
What's funny is that I learned technical analysis from Stan Weinstein who said TA could be applied to anything and everything.

But I've had long droughts at VP then a royal hits... and I've had hot sessions even getting quads back to back, that just die.
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 3:30:38 PM permalink
I'm not sure how you could even chart your session bankroll without violating casino rules. Bring graph paper? lmao
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:08:46 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I'm not sure how you could even chart your session bankroll without violating casino rules. Bring graph paper? lmao
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There are no casino rules about tracking your wins and losses, or counting your money.

Are you sure you've actually played in casinos?
rektfast
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:17:38 PM permalink
I mean it would be easier to use a phone app but phone usage is frowned upon while at a machine because they assume you're recording
unJon
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:21:42 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
link to original post



Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post



Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."

Why even mention this?
link to original post



Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Brickapotamus
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:27:36 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Did you get quads twice within 423 hands? That would be a double top and I would sell.

The question is how we convert technical analysis to video poker.

I knew a Korean woman who scalped the 1 second Bitcoin chart with fiber optic Internet and made millions, but I think she's dead now

g]

The good thing about TA is that the fundamentals of what you're trading (like a game of video poker with a house edge) don't matter.
link to original post



If using TA means the house edge doesn’t matter, then why not play the electronic big 6 wheel instead of VP?

Casino likely wouldn’t care about you using notes or your phone on that game.
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:35:57 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
link to original post



Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post



Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."

Why even mention this?
link to original post



Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
link to original post



I'm concerned with responses to my posts.

You responded to my post.
unJon
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:40:31 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: rektfast

Yeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post



How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post



You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.

And what's wrong with that?
link to original post



Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post



Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."

Why even mention this?
link to original post



Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
link to original post



I'm concerned with responses to my posts.

You responded to my post.
link to original post



Good talk.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
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July 12th, 2022 at 4:43:25 PM permalink
And to you, unjon.
rektfast
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July 13th, 2022 at 7:08:43 AM permalink
A cool idea for content would be a video poker pro and a stock market analyst playing at the same machine and the former trying to hit a royal while the latter is performing TA on their bankroll and telling him to walk away because of the chart pattern.

It's pretty weird to me that there isn't more crossover between the gambling and day trading scenes. They really are the same thing
rektfast
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July 18th, 2022 at 7:26:26 AM permalink
I tested this system by graphing my bankroll as I played with graph paper and cashing out on a double top and it does work (in the short term). Every tenth hand I would plot another point on the chart and connected them with a pencil. Having a visual representation of your bankroll is really interesting and I would never play VP again without it.

I made $660 off an initial $6000 plus a free drink and cashed out the instant I hit quad aces in dollar 9/6 J or B. Like I said, aim for 10-15% returns. Note that most VP machines have a maximum amount of coin-in at $3000ish, so only play $1000 max at a time or you'll get stuck with a bunch of vouchers that will mess up your count.

I then tested ProfessorSlots's "five-spin method" and ended up with $4900 left of my initial six grand. Somehow I won exactly zero dollars while playing slots for an hour straight. Obviously I would have just walked after being in the green at VP but I was with other people and thought I would play slots to kill time. Great idea
Last edited by: rektfast on Jul 18, 2022
AxelWolf
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July 18th, 2022 at 8:03:06 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I tested this system by graphing my bankroll as I played with graph paper and cashing out on a double top and it does work (in the short term). Every tenth hand I would plot another point on the chart and connected them with a pencil. Having a visual representation of your bankroll is really interesting and I would never play VP again without it.

I made $660 off an initial $6000 plus a free drink and cashed out the instant I hit quad aces in dollar 9/6 J or B. Like I said, aim for 10-15% returns. Note that most VP machines have a maximum amount of coin-in at $3000ish, so only play $1000 max at a time or you'll get stuck with a bunch of vouchers that will mess up your count.

I then tested ProfessorSlots's "five-spin method" and ended up with $4900 left of my initial six grand. Somehow I won exactly zero dollars while playing slots for an hour straight. Obviously I would have just walked after being in the green at VP but I was with other people and thought I would play slots to kill time. Great idea
link to original post

What happens when you go 5 + cycles without hitting quads or better?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rektfast
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July 18th, 2022 at 8:14:22 AM permalink
That would probably look like a double bottom, you might have to cut your losses at the support line.

Also this would only work for standard Jacks or Better or similar "boring" games. All the Triple Double Double Bonus 2: Turbo wildcard kicker bullshit would make the chart too random to analyze properly, since the entire game revolves around one or two hands.

On the other hand, FPDW probably doesn't even require technical analysis since it's theoretically over 100% payback.
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