Chasing Quads instead of Royals
Quote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
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Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
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That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
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So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?
What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?
Quote: gordonm888High-level poker players change their betting strategy similar to what rektfast has been advocating when they are in tournaments. They will not chase what they perceive as hands in which they have a small EV advantage if the wagers are large and increase their chances of busting out. Why call someone with all your chips when you expect to have only a 51/49 advantage? It's very important to not lose all (or most) of your chips, and the concept of expected value misses that entirely.
This is particularly true when there are pay-out jumps involved (late in the tournament). So, poker players have developed some decision models (such as the Integrated Chip Model) that only weakly consider the EV of the bet (or don't consider it at all) but rather focus on the stack sizes of the players and payout structure.
I recommend that people read some articles or books on advanced poker theory (such as ICM and Game Theory Optimal for tournaments) to understand how EV is not the only criterion when you have a finite stack.
Note: On the other hand, in cash games poker players use EV to make decisions because they can re-buy - i.e., they essentially have infinite stacks to gamble with.
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This is a valid point, in a live poker tournament. At what point in VIDEO POKER can you decide not to bet (more) after seeing some of the cards?
Quote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know of at least two people who play VP for a living and have attempted to help you. In order to accept help, one must be willing to discard one’s strategy. Are you at that point? If not, I only hope that you are BEFORE the money is all gone.
Quote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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Sorry, I thought this was your way of asking for help. I stand corrected. Best of luck in real life, with real money.
Quote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
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How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
So I'm not really proposing a betting system. It's scalping in day trading but applied to the graph created by playing video poker.
Like I said, it is possible to cash out and buy appreciating assets. "Quitting while ahead" is a poor phrase for what you're supposed to do. Really you're coloring up from cheques to something with a positive cash flow.
Algorand staking was a good example of one such appreciating asset that could have counteracted the casino house edge, but they nerfed the staking rewards so that is no longer a successful option.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
link to original post
I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
link to original post
Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
link to original post
That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
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So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?
Of course there is. They are called ploppies. No negative connotation intended.
Quote: AlanMendelson
What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?
I call them "my kind of people".
Quote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
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How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
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You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
Quote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
link to original post
I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
link to original post
Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
link to original post
That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
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So there's no such thing as people who play for enjoyment?
Of course there is. They are called ploppies. No negative connotation intended.Quote: AlanMendelson
What derogatory name do you have for people who buy expensive cars and expensive jewelry, or take cruises or belong to golf clubs?
I call them "my kind of people".
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Okay then. So....
If someone who gambles for entertainment is a ploppie then someone who buys diamonds, cars, cruises and golf memberships is a ploppie to those businesses.
The problem is people set an arbitrary amount as their goal.
What you should do is set your goal as a percentage of your total bankroll, not just a set amount.
You see what I mean? Saying "I'm going to stop when I make $100" is nonsensical.
But saying "I'll cash out when I'm 15% up" is a workable system
I was doing a practice run earlier and never hit quads (or anything better) within 940 hands. Our bankroll was annihilated to half of its starting total.
I don't know what you're supposed to do when you run cold like that.
I guess get a day job!
Quote: ChumpChangeIf you hit 3 Quads within 100 hands, have you hit peak or will you go to $0 trying for a 4th?
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That's the risk you take.
Do you want to risk the wins from hitting quad 6s to try for a royal?
It's a personal decision.
It doesnt make you a ploppie.
Quote: rektfastAlan is right that there's nothing wrong with win goals.
The problem is people set an arbitrary amount as their goal.
What you should do is set your goal as a percentage of your total bankroll, not just a set amount.
You see what I mean? Saying "I'm going to stop when I make $100" is nonsensical.
But saying "I'll cash out when I'm 15% up" is a workable system
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For the sake of argument, my bankroll is $666.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
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How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
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You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
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Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
Quote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
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How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post
You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
link to original post
Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
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Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."
Why even mention this?
The question is how we convert technical analysis to video poker.
I knew a Korean woman who scalped the 1 second Bitcoin chart with fiber optic Internet and made millions, but I think she's dead now
The good thing about TA is that the fundamentals of what you're trading (like a game of video poker with a house edge) don't matter.
But I've had long droughts at VP then a royal hits... and I've had hot sessions even getting quads back to back, that just die.
Quote: rektfastI'm not sure how you could even chart your session bankroll without violating casino rules. Bring graph paper? lmao
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There are no casino rules about tracking your wins and losses, or counting your money.
Are you sure you've actually played in casinos?
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post
How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post
You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
link to original post
Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post
Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."
Why even mention this?
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Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
Quote: rektfastDid you get quads twice within 423 hands? That would be a double top and I would sell.
The question is how we convert technical analysis to video poker.
I knew a Korean woman who scalped the 1 second Bitcoin chart with fiber optic Internet and made millions, but I think she's dead now
g]
The good thing about TA is that the fundamentals of what you're trading (like a game of video poker with a house edge) don't matter.
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If using TA means the house edge doesn’t matter, then why not play the electronic big 6 wheel instead of VP?
Casino likely wouldn’t care about you using notes or your phone on that game.
Quote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post
How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post
You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
link to original post
Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post
Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."
Why even mention this?
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Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
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I'm concerned with responses to my posts.
You responded to my post.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: rektfastYeah, let me discard my strategy of "cash out when your bankroll is at a peak" and play nickel DDB 15 hours a day instead. Maybe the casino will give me a toaster
link to original post
How do you know when you're at the peak, instead of on an ascending slope?
link to original post
You don't know when you're at the peak. But having a win goal doesn't require knowing when you're at your peak. The win goal is a number you're content reaching.
And what's wrong with that?
link to original post
Nothing. It’s great to have a win goal. It’s not good to think having a win goal makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time.
link to original post
Win goals have nothing to do with "makes you more likely to win more $ than you lose over time."
Why even mention this?
link to original post
Seems to me that you haven’t read this thread very carefully if you have to ask that question.
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I'm concerned with responses to my posts.
You responded to my post.
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Good talk.
It's pretty weird to me that there isn't more crossover between the gambling and day trading scenes. They really are the same thing
I made $660 off an initial $6000 plus a free drink and cashed out the instant I hit quad aces in dollar 9/6 J or B. Like I said, aim for 10-15% returns. Note that most VP machines have a maximum amount of coin-in at $3000ish, so only play $1000 max at a time or you'll get stuck with a bunch of vouchers that will mess up your count.
I then tested ProfessorSlots's "five-spin method" and ended up with $4900 left of my initial six grand. Somehow I won exactly zero dollars while playing slots for an hour straight. Obviously I would have just walked after being in the green at VP but I was with other people and thought I would play slots to kill time. Great idea
What happens when you go 5 + cycles without hitting quads or better?Quote: rektfastI tested this system by graphing my bankroll as I played with graph paper and cashing out on a double top and it does work (in the short term). Every tenth hand I would plot another point on the chart and connected them with a pencil. Having a visual representation of your bankroll is really interesting and I would never play VP again without it.
I made $660 off an initial $6000 plus a free drink and cashed out the instant I hit quad aces in dollar 9/6 J or B. Like I said, aim for 10-15% returns. Note that most VP machines have a maximum amount of coin-in at $3000ish, so only play $1000 max at a time or you'll get stuck with a bunch of vouchers that will mess up your count.
I then tested ProfessorSlots's "five-spin method" and ended up with $4900 left of my initial six grand. Somehow I won exactly zero dollars while playing slots for an hour straight. Obviously I would have just walked after being in the green at VP but I was with other people and thought I would play slots to kill time. Great idea
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Also this would only work for standard Jacks or Better or similar "boring" games. All the Triple Double Double Bonus 2: Turbo wildcard kicker bullshit would make the chart too random to analyze properly, since the entire game revolves around one or two hands.
On the other hand, FPDW probably doesn't even require technical analysis since it's theoretically over 100% payback.
