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OnceDear
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OnceDear
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AxelWolfcamapl
June 24th, 2022 at 1:06:49 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I can't take seriously anyone whose proposal to beat a game with a .5% house edge is "play forever as though your bankroll were infinity" instead of "hit quads and buy a bottle of jack"

VP is not Minecraft, you are not supposed to play it forever. VP is Press Your Luck and your objective is to cash out when your return is overperforming what would be mathematically expected
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"Hit Quads and buy a bottle of Jack" is as fun a playing style as any. Playing a sub-optimal play as proposed in this thread may be more fun than perfect strategy, just as many money management systems can be more fun than flat betting. You pay your money, you take your choice. I quite like d'Alembert with £100 session bankroll and a £50 win goal. More fun than flat betting. But I still play correct strategy.
But it's also hard to take seriously a proposal to beat a game with a .5% house edge by "cash out when your return is overperforming what would be mathematically expected"
That's just a paraphrasing of 'Hit and run' 'quit while you are ahead' 'Have a Win Goal' ' Break up sessions'.
Fortunately, this is the BS* subforum where such BS* belongs. Here you can propose and advocate any strategy that you like.

To be clear, BS* = "Betting Systems"
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:29:25 AM permalink
Most APs don't even know what genre the game of video poker is. If they don't even know what the game they're playing is, how are they going to beat it?

No, it's not a card game.

It's a ROGUELIKE.

"Roguelike is a subgenre of role-playing computer games tradionally characterized by a dungeon crawl through procedurally generated levels, turn-based gameplay, grid-based movement, and permanent death of the player character."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roguelike

Procedurally generated levels: random five-card hands.

Turn-based gameplay: choosing which cards to keep.

Permanent death of the player character: bankruptcy.

Everyone is scoring VP wrong. Professional roguelike players don't take the high scores from all their runs and add them together. That makes no sense! The objective of a roguelike is to stay alive as long as possible against impossible odds, the .5% casino take!

Every attempt (session) is a SEPARATE INSTANCE in which the objective is to maximize the value of your CURRENT BANKROLL. Meaning THE MONEY YOU CURRENTLY HAVE. Do you have infinite money? Then why are you using a betting system that ASSUMES YOU OWN A GOLD MINE?

Just taking lines of play that take for granted the bad input assumptions of playing with infinite bankroll over an infinite period of time is ASININE! Like I said, I play perfect strategy until hitting below 50% bankroll. That doesn't even happen unless you're at the nadir of the graph of the expected value of what ACTUALLY matters, the numbers of hands you made versus the mathematically expected amount.

You're not making misplays: you're staying alive until your luck balances out and you can leave in the green. The second your bankroll stabilizes, you go right back to keeping 2s 6s 4s and never hitting the straight flush like a good boy.

The Federal Reserve debases the US dollar ten percent a year!

How can there be a long run when not only are you fighting a house edge, but the CREDITS THEMSELVES are losing value?

No, wrong. VP is like Dungeons and Dragons. And what do you do after a successful dungeon delve? You go back to town and spend your gold on equipment: assets with positive cash flow.

Unless one of the steps in an AP's betting system is "Cash out and buy real estate and a gun," they are WRONG
unJon
unJon
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djtehch34t
June 24th, 2022 at 4:40:35 AM permalink
Starting to sound like US Paper Games . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:46:06 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Most APs don't even know what genre the game of video poker is. If they don't even know what the game they're playing is, how are they going to beat it?

No, it's not a card game.

It's a ROGUELIKE.

"Roguelike is a subgenre of role-playing computer games tradionally characterized by a dungeon crawl through procedurally generated levels, turn-based gameplay, grid-based movement, and permanent death of the player character."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roguelike

Procedurally generated levels: random five-card hands.

Turn-based gameplay: choosing which cards to keep.

Permanent death of the player character: bankruptcy.

Everyone is scoring VP wrong. Professional roguelike players don't take the high scores from all their runs and add them together. That makes no sense!

Every attempt (session) is a SEPARATE INSTANCE in which the objective is to maximize the value of your CURRENT BANKROLL. Meaning THE MONEY YOU CURRENTLY HAVE. Do you have infinite money? Then why are you using a betting system that ASSUMES YOU OWN A GOLD MINE?

Just taking lines of play that assume the bad input assumptions of playing with infinite bankroll over an infinite period of time is ASININE! Like I said, I play perfect strategy until hitting below 50% bankroll. That doesn't even happen unless you're at the nadir of the graph of the expected value of what ACTUALLY matters, the numbers of hands you made versus the mathematically expected amount.

You're not making misplays: you're staying alive until your luck balances out and you can leave in the green. The second your bankroll stabilizes, you go right back to keeping 2s 6s 4s and never hitting the straight flush like a good boy.

The Federal Reserve debases the US dollar ten percent a year!

How can there be a long run when not only are you fighting a house edge, but the CREDITS THEMSELVES are losing value?

No, wrong. VP is like Dungeons and Dragons. And what do you do after a successful dungeon delve? You go back to town and spend your gold on equipment: assets with positive cash flow.

Unless one of the steps in an AP's betting system is "Cash out and buy real estate and a gun," they are WRONG
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Ummm. Nope. I don't understand. All I perceive is advice to break sessíons after a win and to go spend. On the few occasions where VP is an Advantage play, with a player edge, the player will simply employ Kelly betting for as long as the play is worthwhile. He will not take a break to go spend his profit. The ap won't play into a disadvantage in the first place, except for amusement.
So... What's your advantage. How do YOU beat it or do you play it for the occasions where you cash out a profit and shrug off the times you lose your session bankroll...or are you one of those legends that never loses because of your special plays
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:47:24 AM permalink
Let's take Diablo as an example. Say there is a hardcore Diablo 2 player who plays with permadeath on. He is sure to manage his health carefully so he doesn't die and lose his character, because that would mean the game is over and he lost.

"I'm an advantage Diablo 2 player," Wizard of Vegas says.
"Oh, really? What's your strategy?" xxBL00d4thabl00DGod14xx asks.
Wizard of Vegas replies, "Well, first I assume my character has infinite health..."

And they aren't special plays. When you are about to die in Diablo, you DRINK A POTION aka FAVOR HANDS THAT YOU ARE LIKELY TO HIT NOW, RATHER THAN IN TEN YEARS.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:54:10 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Starting to sound like US Paper Games . . .
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for fear of anything close to personal insult territory, I see what you mean. Rekfast may be serious or he may be having a laugh at our expense. For now he's within the rules and his posts are on tópic for this sub forum as described by Wizard
"All betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own."

If he knows how to beat VP. He's most welcome to just go and take all those riches that the casino want him to have.... But he seems more inclined to help us see the light. An odd, altruistic concept.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:56:37 AM permalink
I am completely serious, if your strategy is to become +EV with perfect play and comps in the long run then you are just losing money to currency debasement. If you're robbing a bank, is your plan to stay in the bank forever and never exit? How is staying in a casino forever any different?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I am completely serious, if your strategy is to become +EV with perfect play and comps in the long run then you are just losing money to currency debasement. If you're robbing a bank, is your plan to stay in the bank forever and never exit? How is staying in a casino forever any different?
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I'm completely serious. What's the point of leaving the casino and spending your profit? On the days after you leave the casino with a loss, don't you simply go to the ATM and top up your session bankroll from your salary or savings. All you seem to be doing is taking your salary for a trip to the casino on the way to the store. When you win you can have more groceries. When you lose you have less. In aggregate. You will tend to have less because on aggregate you lose the house edge x the sum of wagers placed.... I ask again. Where is your advantage.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:10:09 AM permalink
The way to beat video poker is to redenominate your credits from US dollars to +EV assets and then use the positive cash flow to create a feedback loop. You need your passive APR to be greater than the casino house edge.

Something like Algorand used to provide more than .5% value a year by staking, but I am pretty sure they reduced it.

Also obviously you have to squeeze out extra value by not paying ATM fees, eating outside of the casino, etc.

But yes I am serious that you should ask professional roguelike players how they would attack VP.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:17:16 AM permalink
Rekfast.... Simplest of questions.... Where are you going with this thread? You suggest a strategy of sub optimal play which reduces variance?... But it's sub optimal play.... Vis a Vis one where You will tend to lose money in aggregate. If the purpose is greater amusement and more sessions where you can boast a win, then fair enough. But so what.
I don't think any Ap works on the basis of infinite bankroll. We decide on a total bankroll at risk and if we have any sense, we constantly play a percentage of that which is proportional to house edge. if we have an advantage, we will eventually tend to wager more and vice versa. Dealing with variance is a whole different matter.
Hit and run and trying to have good sessions sort of implies that sessions matter. They don't.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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