poli2k01
poli2k01
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November 20th, 2021 at 3:08:15 AM permalink
Hi Fellow gamers/gamblers and or @wizard of odds

I'm looking for people who can help compute the probability of chops vs streaks for a given standard 8 deck shoe in baccarat. I understand there maybe variables that needs to be factored for every known bet result, But in general what is the % of chops vs streaks, let's say for 72 games average per deck.

Hope someone can do the math.

Thank you!
Dieter
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OnceDear
November 20th, 2021 at 3:45:37 AM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

I understand there maybe variables that needs to be factored for every known bet result, But in general what is the % of chops vs streaks, let's say for 72 games average per deck.

Hope someone can do the math.

Thank you!
link to original post



Would you care to define what you mean by "chops" and "streaks"?
May the cards fall in your favor.
MDawg
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November 20th, 2021 at 4:39:24 AM permalink
We calculated the odds of some streaks here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/33023-streak-odds/#post824106
and here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/33023-streak-odds/#post827333
and you might want to post in that thread, since that sort of discussion is ongoing. You have to define exactly how many you're talking about - a chop of 10, a chop of 8, a streak of 8, a streak of 16, etc. and where in the shoe it lands too, I suppose.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ThatDonGuy
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poli2k01ChumpChangeaboka
November 20th, 2021 at 11:44:26 AM permalink
Here are the results of a run of 800 million 8-deck shoes
The columns are counts of player runs, bank runs, and "chop runs" (e.g. a chop run of 4 is player, bank, player, bank, bank or bank, player, bank, player, player)
Ties do not end streaks (e.g. player, tie, tie, player, player, tie, bank is a run of 3 player wins)
Streaks did not carry over from one shoe to the next
This has been edited - originally the Bank and Player column labels were switched
LengthBankPlayerChop
Longest Run323237
25 or more861441624
24881422601
231,7199221,278
223,5782,0262,663
217,0444,0805,384
2014,1228,60410,821
1928,32117,56121,837
1856,23736,12044,676
17112,56574,82690,666
16227,133153,761184,771
15455,637317,318375,668
14912,320655,145761,840
131,827,9161,347,8101,549,419
123,666,3522,778,9713,145,696
117,339,4575,728,2126,389,447
1014,702,53411,785,68512,977,672
929,434,93424,252,21726,339,926
858,934,65449,912,35153,480,170
7117,913,628102,650,379108,477,794
6235,942,353211,147,024220,261,351
5472,047,727434,178,253446,401,461
4944,160,375892,560,532906,166,747
31,888,125,4621,834,548,2841,836,063,228
23,775,181,8073,770,293,1363,725,304,974
17,546,976,3617,746,574,8637,545,398,575
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Nov 20, 2021
poli2k01
poli2k01
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November 20th, 2021 at 11:54:22 AM permalink
Thank you, this is close to what I'm looking for, but is there a way to compute average chops vs streaks PER shoe?
poli2k01
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November 20th, 2021 at 11:58:38 AM permalink
Also, interestingly why is player streaks always higher than banker streaks in your table given banker has a higher winning % based on drawing rules?
ThatDonGuy
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November 20th, 2021 at 12:39:52 PM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

Thank you, this is close to what I'm looking for, but is there a way to compute average chops vs streaks PER shoe?
link to original post


You need to explain what you mean by "average streak" and "average chop." Do you mean the average length of a streak, and the average length of a run of chops?

Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732

Quote: poli2k01

Also, interestingly why is player streaks always higher than banker streaks in your table given banker has a higher winning % based on drawing rules?


Er, probably because the Player and Bank columns were switched - this has been fixed.
ChumpChange
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November 20th, 2021 at 12:53:05 PM permalink
So if I'm typing up a new betting progression for Baccarat, I'll be 39% more likely to hit 14 Bankers vs 14 Players in a row.
OnceDear
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November 20th, 2021 at 1:41:28 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

So if I'm typing up a new betting progression for Baccarat, I'll be 39% more likely to hit 14 Bankers vs 14 Players in a row.
link to original post

And pay commission for the privilege
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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November 20th, 2021 at 1:54:19 PM permalink
I could get a $100 bet up to a >$10K balance with 14 wins in a row on a $100-$2K table. Just got to wait for them.
Dieter
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Dieter
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November 20th, 2021 at 4:28:00 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ChumpChange

So if I'm typing up a new betting progression for Baccarat, I'll be 39% more likely to hit 14 Bankers vs 14 Players in a row.
link to original post

And pay commission for the privilege
link to original post



I, for one, am shocked - SHOCKED, I SAY - to learn that wagers with a higher probability of winning pay out at lower odds.
May the cards fall in your favor.
poli2k01
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December 7th, 2021 at 11:13:25 AM permalink
You need to explain what you mean by "average streak" and "average chop." Do you mean the average length of a streak, and the average length of a run of chops?

Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732

@ThatDonGuy
Average streak = consecutive player wins, e.g. P,P or P,P,P or P,P,P,P,P
Average chop = consecutive sequence of chopped wins, e.g. P,B,P,B = 4 chops, B,P,B = 3 chops, P,B,P,B,P,B = 6 chops

Please confirm if your numbers above is referring to my definition here.

Thank you for running the simulation for me. Very much appreciated!
poli2k01
poli2k01
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December 7th, 2021 at 11:17:58 AM permalink
To further illustrate, Given a 70 games shoe, how may chops(alternate winners - B,P or P, B), vs streaks (same consecutive outcome winners e.g. P,P or B,B) are expected.
poli2k01
poli2k01
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December 7th, 2021 at 11:18:45 AM permalink
I'm looking for the average relative for a given shoe.
ThatDonGuy
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December 7th, 2021 at 11:57:04 AM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

You need to explain what you mean by "average streak" and "average chop." Do you mean the average length of a streak, and the average length of a run of chops?

Based on the 800 million shoes, I get:
Average player run 1.9475
Average bank run 2.0002
Average run of chops 1.9732

@ThatDonGuy
Average streak = consecutive player wins, e.g. P,P or P,P,P or P,P,P,P,P
Average chop = consecutive sequence of chopped wins, e.g. P,B,P,B = 4 chops, B,P,B = 3 chops, P,B,P,B,P,B = 6 chops

Please confirm if your numbers above is referring to my definition here.


Your definition is correct, although they can include ties.
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