The Adventures of MDawg II

Quote: AxelWolf

MDawg's AvatarMDawg MDawg is offline
Senior Member
Join Date
Nov 2019
Location
California
Posts
1,397
Default How do you win at Baccarat?
link to original post

'If you think that people don't notice or act on such patterns in Baccarat, think again. I cut a shoe where neither the banker nor the player EVER went past two. On its surface, a lousy shoe - no runs, no streaks. But a Chinese guy came along, watched for a few minutes, and started putting anywhere from 5000 - 15000 on the opposite side every time a run of two had passed. He cleaned up! He prompted the rest of us to realize that there WAS in fact a winning pattern presented, and to take advantage of it.'

There are patterns everywhere you just have to recognize what they are and learn how to exploit them. Some people see patterns easily and some people don't see them at all. I do not doubt there are patterns in blackjack I just don't have the time to give to it because I'm too wrapped up in the other project.

'Where the skill comes, is in knowing whether one is playing into a good or bad shoe. This is not something that may be taught. It comes with years of experience.'

You have to know when it's playing your game. And it takes years of experience and observation and you're always learning.

It is a good thing that Baccarat is viewed as unbeatable. Gives me a practically unfettered hand to operate.

In the end whether you predict the next hand as Bank due to what has come before in terms of prior hands or because you know exactly what has been dealt what remains and what’s in that clump about to be played it all amounts to the same thing if you end up right.

Quote: MDawg

It is a good thing that Baccarat is viewed as unbeatable. Gives me a practically unfettered hand to operate.
link to original post

It's the same thing with roulette. Nobody thinks it can be beaten, especially the casino. So when you're winning they're more likely to think you're cheating rather than that you've beaten the game.

Day 12 play

Ironically (or not), most of the day's profit came down to one advantage $50K hand where I got exactly what I expected, and won.

+62500

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 13 play

Pretty consistent play. Was down some near the beginning but kept coming back to even then ahead.

+44000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

I qualified for and now holding $12,000 in promo chips (play until you lose). Most likely will use them at the next session.

Another tournament coming up too.

Quote: MDawg

Day 13 play

Pretty consistent play. Was down some near the beginning but kept coming back to even then ahead.

+44000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post

Not enough to buy a Greubel Forsey Hand Made 1 watch.

Make that your goal for the year.

I’m more into Breguet. I already have several including a couple tourbillons.

Day 14 play

Using that $12K free play and some chips I got up about +20K then commenced a series of bad spills culminating in -140K ! down. Soon afterwards I won a 50K hand and over the course of four shoes got back slightly ahead and stopped.

Quite a comeback.

+4000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Quote: MDawg

I’m more into Breguet. I already have several including a couple tourbillons.
link to original post

I am happy to say that I have never spent more than $100 for a watch.

Zuckelberg is wearing a $895K MSRP Greubel Forsey Hand Made 1 in the video where he announces no more fact checking at FB. Of course Zuckelberg is a total jerk off.

I am sure he paid full retail. I could get one for about half through my wholesale connections. Buy enough watches eventually you’ll find the best gray market dealers.

Is this watch out of your price range?

And yes it's out of mine.

Quote: MDawg

Zuckelberg is wearing a $895K MSRP Greubel Forsey Hand Made 1 in the video where he announces no more fact checking at FB. Of course Zuckelberg is a total jerk off.

I am sure he paid full retail. I could get one for about half through my wholesale connections. Buy enough watches eventually you’ll find the best gray market dealers.
link to original post

Maybe they gave it to him for free as advertising? Why not shoot to own one? They seem to appreciate in value similar to other top end watches. They apparently only make 2-3 a year of the kind Zuck is wearing.

The old four digit model Rolex Daytonas I own have and do appreciate. There are various watches that appreciate but most take at least an initial big hit from MSRP in the resale market.

For example the Patek sky moon tourbillon. First release version MSRP was around a million but they were selling in the aftermarket as low as three or four hundred thousand dollars. Today selling six to eight million dollars each.

The last watch I brought was an Android. Makes phone calls as well as tell time. Even million dollar watches don't make phone calls

I feel I got the better value.

Quote: darkoz

The last watch I brought was an Android. Makes phone calls as well as tell time. Even million dollar watches don't make phone calls

I feel I got the better value.
link to original post

I never understood the appeal of a phone that makes phone calls. Everyone that I ever saw wearing one was also carrying a phone.

Quote: DRich

Quote: darkoz

The last watch I brought was an Android. Makes phone calls as well as tell time. Even million dollar watches don't make phone calls

I feel I got the better value.
link to original post

I never understood the appeal of a phone that makes phone calls. Everyone that I ever saw wearing one was also carrying a phone.
link to original post

I just bought a smartwatch for myself at Christmas and I've already returned it. I already carry a phone everywhere why do I need another phone on my wrist. And all the other stuff it does like check your heart rate, your blood oxygen, even your blood pressure, I have other instruments that do that. I wanted it mainly to monitor my sleep but then I read that these watches are really crappy at doing that. All it tracks is how much you move when you're sleeping. I sleep on my back on a 30% incline so I never move when I'm sleeping, my hands and arms never move I never roll over, it's the absolute best way to sleep. A smartwatch would think I died.

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.

We have the iPhone 16 pro max and I upgraded my iwatch to the Ultra 2. Pretty much when not in Vegas or at a special or family event I wear the Apple watch.

The main advantage to Apple watch is notifications. You don’t always notice notifications with a phone in your pocket even set to vibrate. I use AirTags in everything and once while traveling I left a valise case that contained a couple of expensive watches and jewelry behind walked away and the AirTag pinged me pretty soon to let me know I’d been separated from it. I ran back and already there was some shark circling by it wondering if it had been left behind. I might have missed that notification if my wrist hadn’t vibrated.

Also if receiving calls is important to you you need that iwatch so as not to miss any.

I also use my iwatch to track activity and exercise.

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.

We have the iPhone 16 pro max and I upgraded my iwatch to the Ultra 2. Pretty much when not in Vegas or at a special or family event I wear the Apple watch.

The main advantage to Apple watch is notifications. You don’t always notice notifications with a phone in your pocket even set to vibrate. I use AirTags in everything and once while traveling I left a valise case that contained a couple of expensive watches and jewelry behind walked away and the AirTag pinged me pretty soon to let me know I’d been separated from it. I ran back and already there was some shark circling by it wondering if it had been left behind. I might have missed that notification if my wrist hadn’t vibrated.

Also if receiving calls is important to you you need that iwatch so as not to miss any.

I also use my iwatch to track activity and exercise.
link to original post

I've never received an important call, I wonder what they look like. All I ever get is people wanting stuff from me. My phone is currently shut off to alerting me to incoming calls. No ring, no vibrate, a call comes in I have no idea. People who know me text me, never call.

One thing I wonder about is getting that emergency phone call in the middle of the night, which you of course hope never comes, but what if it does. Landlines are becoming more a thing of the past, and I don't wear my iWatch when I sleep and keep my phone out of the bedroom because it is constantly vibrating as notified by various cameras spread out inside and out at our homes. Of course, middle of night notifications of camera activity might be important too, but a spider may set off an outdoor camera as well as a person.

But still, if a person keeps his cell phone away from the bed and doesn't sleep with a smart watch, there is basically no way to get a hold of him until morning if he doesn't have a ringing landline. We actually do maintain a landline in one of our homes, but even there I've silenced some of the phones in some of the parts of the house.

Quote: MDawg

One thing I wonder about is getting that emergency phone call in the middle of the night, which you of course hope never comes, but what if it does. Landlines are becoming more a thing of the past, and I don't wear my iWatch when I sleep and keep my phone out of the bedroom because it is constantly vibrating as notified by various cameras spread out inside and out at our homes. Of course, middle of night notifications of camera activity might be important too, but a spider may set off an outdoor camera as well as a person.

But still, if a person keeps his cell phone away from the bed and doesn't sleep with a smart watch, there is basically no way to get a hold of him until morning if he doesn't have a ringing landline. We actually do maintain a landline in one of our homes, but even there I've silenced some of the phones in some of the parts of the house.
link to original post

You can put your phone in sleep mode and set that so that the camera alerts are silenced. And I believe (though haven’t set up myself) that you can also adjust the sleep settings turn off rings/vibrates for all except (I) certain contacts and (II) people that call twice within a short period of time.

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.


link to original post

And I am not surprised you have an iPhone.

The only reason to spend a thousand plus dollars to make phone calls instead of $200 is because one wants to throw away their money.

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.

Quote: darkoz

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

Were there ever phones without ringers? I guess maybe for the deaf.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.


link to original post

And I am not surprised you have an iPhone.

The only reason to spend a thousand plus dollars to make phone calls instead of $200 is because one wants to throw away their money.

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

That's why my phone is completely shut down, why in the hell would I want to be woken up in the middle of the night. Somebody died? They'll be just as dead at noon tomorrow, tell me then.

Quote: DRich

Quote: darkoz

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

Were there ever phones without ringers? I guess maybe for the deaf.
link to original post

They usually have ringers, too.
The ringers flash a light. This is also an option on many modern cell phones.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.


link to original post

And I am not surprised you have an iPhone.

The only reason to spend a thousand plus dollars to make phone calls instead of $200 is because one wants to throw away their money.

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

That's why my phone is completely shut down, why in the hell would I want to be woken up in the middle of the night. Somebody died? They'll be just as dead at noon tomorrow, tell me then.
link to original post

One of the worst memories of my childhood was my grandma called us at 3:00 a.m. to tell us that Grandpa died. Of course the whole house went into an uproar and even then I realized why couldn't she wait to call us after we all got up. In those days people felt like bad news had to be delivered immediately.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.


link to original post

And I am not surprised you have an iPhone.

The only reason to spend a thousand plus dollars to make phone calls instead of $200 is because one wants to throw away their money.

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

That's why my phone is completely shut down, why in the hell would I want to be woken up in the middle of the night. Somebody died? They'll be just as dead at noon tomorrow, tell me then.
link to original post

One of the worst memories of my childhood was my grandma called us at 3:00 a.m. to tell us that Grandpa died. Of course the whole house went into an uproar and even then I realized why couldn't she wait to call us after we all got up. In those days people felt like bad news had to be delivered immediately.
link to original post

I agree with you if someone has died. I would want to be notified if someone was injured or very sick and they might die. I would want to see them one last time before they die.

Maybe with iPhone 16 pro max and AI, setting some things to alert and not others will be easier to toggle on and off.

Day 15 play

Barely half an hour of play and down at most -8000 or so at the low.

+38000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 16 play

Not a very long session.

+44000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Quote: MDawg

In the end whether you predict the next hand as Bank due to what has come before in terms of prior hands or because you know exactly what has been dealt what remains and what’s in that clump about to be played it all amounts to the same thing if you end up right.
link to original post

The most important fundamental principle in the natural world is causality. It is the principle that effects have causes, and effect must follow cause in time. From this we derive the property of time itself, which is related to space, which then gives us distance, velocity, acceleration, all the things we use to define the material world. The "speed of light" is noted with a constant c but it is not actually the speed of light, it is the speed of causality- the maximum rate at which effect can follow cause in spacetime.

I also like playing baccarat (or rather, playing at the baccarat table). I find it less stressful than BJ. When playing baccarat I use counts from level 2 to level 5. Preferably they are unbalanced counts which are more manageable and require no adjustments for missing hands or cards, but sometimes I use a balanced count for double-ended reasons- the same count correlates to one bet at a positive TC and a different bet at a negative TC. For true counting I don't use decks, I use what I dubbed "sexts," groups of 6 hands. Baccarat hands are very close to an average of 5 cards each so a sext is 30 cards. I do that because that's how the hands are recorded in columns on the scoreboard and that makes deck estimation very easy- assume 14 sexts in a 8 deck shoe and your TC denominator is 14 minus the columns already played. Some of the counts correlate to more than one bet, I'm sometimes using 2 or 3 different counts, and sometimes on 2-4 different tables.

The best baccarat bet in the city yields 2.2 bets/100 hands (as does another one in the BJ world, incidentally) but it is hard to get enough money down on that one to make it worth it. There are others that yield 1.5/100, 1.1/100, a bunch that yield 0.5-0.6/100, and what I'm going to play depends of the yield of the bet, what other things I can play at the same time, and how much money I can get down on the bets. Also game speed, heat, quality of drinks, quality of background music. I used to include how easy it was to pick up chicks in a particular store, but now I just go to Dotty's for that.

But no matter what I am playing, it is still all dependent on causality. The effect is the correct cards being dealt to win the bet. The first proximate cause of winning the bet is those necessary cards being in surplus, and the cause of that cause is the cards that are not helpful or detrimental to winning having been dealt out in previous hands.

Now let's say on one hand the banker receives 7-2, and the player receives 5-A. That hand is of course won by the banker, and the cards 7,2,5,A have been removed from the shoe, and that removal has an effect on the next and all subsequent hands dealt from that shoe. But if it was the banker who received 5-A and the player received 7-2, the exact same cards would have been removed from the shoe, with the same effects, but the player was the winner. How then can there be a causality between the player or the banker winning and the effects on the next hand, when the exact same cards have been removed?

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

I’m not surprised that D.Oz has an Android.


link to original post

And I am not surprised you have an iPhone.

The only reason to spend a thousand plus dollars to make phone calls instead of $200 is because one wants to throw away their money.

And my phone wakes me up in the middle of the night as well. It's called a ringer. The phones I know had ringers since 1900 or so.
link to original post

That's why my phone is completely shut down, why in the hell would I want to be woken up in the middle of the night. Somebody died? They'll be just as dead at noon tomorrow, tell me then.
link to original post

One of the worst memories of my childhood was my grandma called us at 3:00 a.m. to tell us that Grandpa died. Of course the whole house went into an uproar and even then I realized why couldn't she wait to call us after we all got up. In those days people felt like bad news had to be delivered immediately.
link to original post

Back in the day, it was common to take the new widow to the bank, so she could withdraw enough money to live on until things were settled. The bank would often freeze the account as soon as they heard the man died.
I know we had to take the lady across the street on such an errand, and this was back in the early 1990s. The bank may or may not have frozen the accounts, but nobody was in the mood to risk it, and she was too distraught to drive herself.


When my time comes, I hope they don't wake everybody up. I'll still be dead in the morning, and people will be able to cope better if they're rested.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: MDawg

In the end whether you predict the next hand as Bank due to what has come before in terms of prior hands or because you know exactly what has been dealt what remains and what’s in that clump about to be played it all amounts to the same thing if you end up right.
link to original post

The most important fundamental principle in the natural world is causality. It is the principle that effects have causes, and effect must follow cause in time. From this we derive the property of time itself, which is related to space, which then gives us distance, velocity, acceleration, all the things we use to define the material world. The "speed of light" is noted with a constant c but it is not actually the speed of light, it is the speed of causality- the maximum rate at which effect can follow cause in spacetime.

I also like playing baccarat (or rather, playing at the baccarat table). I find it less stressful than BJ. When playing baccarat I use counts from level 2 to level 5. Preferably they are unbalanced counts which are more manageable and require no adjustments for missing hands or cards, but sometimes I use a balanced count for double-ended reasons- the same count correlates to one bet at a positive TC and a different bet at a negative TC. For true counting I don't use decks, I use what I dubbed "sexts," groups of 6 hands. Baccarat hands are very close to an average of 5 cards each so a sext is 30 cards. I do that because that's how the hands are recorded in columns on the scoreboard and that makes deck estimation very easy- assume 14 sexts in a 8 deck shoe and your TC denominator is 14 minus the columns already played. Some of the counts correlate to more than one bet, I'm sometimes using 2 or 3 different counts, and sometimes on 2-4 different tables.

The best baccarat bet in the city yields 2.2 bets/100 hands (as does another one in the BJ world, incidentally) but it is hard to get enough money down on that one to make it worth it. There are others that yield 1.5/100, 1.1/100, a bunch that yield 0.5-0.6/100, and what I'm going to play depends of the yield of the bet, what other things I can play at the same time, and how much money I can get down on the bets. Also game speed, heat, quality of drinks, quality of background music. I used to include how easy it was to pick up chicks in a particular store, but now I just go to Dotty's for that.

But no matter what I am playing, it is still all dependent on causality. The effect is the correct cards being dealt to win the bet. The first proximate cause of winning the bet is those necessary cards being in surplus, and the cause of that cause is the cards that are not helpful or detrimental to winning having been dealt out in previous hands.

Now let's say on one hand the banker receives 7-2, and the player receives 5-A. That hand is of course won by the banker, and the cards 7,2,5,A have been removed from the shoe, and that removal has an effect on the next and all subsequent hands dealt from that shoe. But if it was the banker who received 5-A and the player received 7-2, the exact same cards would have been removed from the shoe, with the same effects, but the player was the winner. How then can there be a causality between the player or the banker winning and the effects on the next hand, when the exact same cards have been removed?
link to original post

Are you saying you think you are playing baccarat with an edge?
MDawg most definitely claims to be playing baccarat with an edge.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: MDawg

In the end whether you predict the next hand as Bank due to what has come before in terms of prior hands or because you know exactly what has been dealt what remains and what’s in that clump about to be played it all amounts to the same thing if you end up right.
link to original post

The most important fundamental principle in the natural world is causality. It is the principle that effects have causes, and effect must follow cause in time. From this we derive the property of time itself, which is related to space, which then gives us distance, velocity, acceleration, all the things we use to define the material world. The "speed of light" is noted with a constant c but it is not actually the speed of light, it is the speed of causality- the maximum rate at which effect can follow cause in spacetime.

I also like playing baccarat (or rather, playing at the baccarat table). I find it less stressful than BJ. When playing baccarat I use counts from level 2 to level 5. Preferably they are unbalanced counts which are more manageable and require no adjustments for missing hands or cards, but sometimes I use a balanced count for double-ended reasons- the same count correlates to one bet at a positive TC and a different bet at a negative TC. For true counting I don't use decks, I use what I dubbed "sexts," groups of 6 hands. Baccarat hands are very close to an average of 5 cards each so a sext is 30 cards. I do that because that's how the hands are recorded in columns on the scoreboard and that makes deck estimation very easy- assume 14 sexts in a 8 deck shoe and your TC denominator is 14 minus the columns already played. Some of the counts correlate to more than one bet, I'm sometimes using 2 or 3 different counts, and sometimes on 2-4 different tables.

The best baccarat bet in the city yields 2.2 bets/100 hands (as does another one in the BJ world, incidentally) but it is hard to get enough money down on that one to make it worth it. There are others that yield 1.5/100, 1.1/100, a bunch that yield 0.5-0.6/100, and what I'm going to play depends of the yield of the bet, what other things I can play at the same time, and how much money I can get down on the bets. Also game speed, heat, quality of drinks, quality of background music. I used to include how easy it was to pick up chicks in a particular store, but now I just go to Dotty's for that.

But no matter what I am playing, it is still all dependent on causality. The effect is the correct cards being dealt to win the bet. The first proximate cause of winning the bet is those necessary cards being in surplus, and the cause of that cause is the cards that are not helpful or detrimental to winning having been dealt out in previous hands.

Now let's say on one hand the banker receives 7-2, and the player receives 5-A. That hand is of course won by the banker, and the cards 7,2,5,A have been removed from the shoe, and that removal has an effect on the next and all subsequent hands dealt from that shoe. But if it was the banker who received 5-A and the player received 7-2, the exact same cards would have been removed from the shoe, with the same effects, but the player was the winner. How then can there be a causality between the player or the banker winning and the effects on the next hand, when the exact same cards have been removed?
link to original post

What are you talking about?


Obviously, this is how you beat baccarat...

Quote: AxelWolf

MDawg's AvatarMDawg MDawg is offline
Senior Member
Join Date
Nov 2019
Location
California
Posts
1,397
Default How do you win at Baccarat?

Most people look at the game like a random coin toss with a house edge. Such people could never win a nickel at Baccarat.

If Baccarat were truly random, with each hand completely independent from the prior one, there would be, in theory no way to win at the game. Looking from the outside, this appears to be what the game is - with prior hands offering no predictive value to guessing subsequent, future hands.

But any Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips knows that there are some shoes where patterns do repeat, versus other shoes that are completely random. But how to know if you're in the midst of a good shoe or bad shoe. Ay, there's the rub.

Let's start with an example of a good shoe, one with predictive value:
Click image for larger version.

Name: BaccShoe_PlayerSingle.jpg
Views: 3226
Size: 97.9 KB
ID: 189
In this shoe, the pattern very early on was to bet the bank whenever player came up. Even if you lost such a bet, doubling up on the bank for the next bet was a sure thing, because player never ran more than twice. This shoe was not just a banker's shoe, with far more bankers than players (3 bankers for every 1 player), but presented a simple, easy to follow pattern of "put everything on the bank after each player." You'd lose only two bets out of sixteen doing that.

If you think that people don't notice or act on such patterns in Baccarat, think again. I cut a shoe where neither the banker nor the player EVER went past two. On its surface, a lousy shoe - no runs, no streaks. But a Chinese guy came along, watched for a few minutes, and started putting anywhere from 5000 - 15000 on the opposite side every time a run of two had passed. He cleaned up! He prompted the rest of us to realize that there WAS in fact a winning pattern presented, and to take advantage of it.

There are many different types of shoes that present winning opportunities. Another is a shoe with long streaks of banker or player. My personal best and favorite was a shoe where the player ran 22 times in a row, followed by one bank, followed by 26 players in a row. I was betting 15,000 per hand on the third player, and it all the way through until I was ahead a quarter million over all, and then, unfortunately, cut back to just 800 per hand. Still, that run was the tail end of an over 400K win at two casinos, and I stopped after the run, and went home with all of it.

The first question would be, WHY would you have thought that the player was going to run after just two players. What made you decide to plop 15000 (the limit at that time) on player just because it had run twice? It was early in the shoe, why risk so much so quickly? Well, part of the reason was that I was already ahead quite a lot, and had been winning consistently, day in day out for about ten days straight, so I was chip heavy, and fearless. But also, I saw a natural nine followed by a natural eight in player, and something prompted me to feel that the player was due for a run. I even said the words out loud.

"Natural nine. Natural eight? Hmm."

As the run progressed the look on the pit boss' face! He actually slapped his forehead and stepped away from the table, reeling.

"Is anything going to stop this guy?" was what his look conveyed. I had been winning ten days straight, and was now in the home stretch, with the run of a lifetime.

I will admit that this experience has made me feel as though a player run is imminent, not every time, but sometimes, after the first two hands for player come in at natural nine, followed by natural eight. Has the player then run 22 times? No. It hasn't happened for me again. But, the player has run more often than not when I have felt that it will, and the proof in the pudding are my consistent Baccarat wins over time.

Now what about bad shoes? shoes where there is no discernible pattern and no runs? What to do there? Well, ideally, LEAVE, but at worst, cut back your bet. How do you know though that you're in the midst of a bad shoe? Well, the easiest way to know is that you are LOSING over fifty percent of your bets. If all your attempts to "follow the shoe" are resulting in multiple losing hands in a row, it's time to get up and find another shoe, cut back your bet, or free hand (ask for free hands to view results without betting) until a recurring pattern emerges. Of course this is easier said than done. Many Baccarat players upon losing some hands will start playing with emotion, betting bigger to try to catch up, versus simply getting up and leaving. Over time, the Baccarat winners learn not to "chase" losses, and Stay on Target with the search for good shoes only.

Which brings me to...hit and run. Some gamblers think that hit and run is meaningless, that over time a lifetime of sessions will even out wins and losses such that leaving ahead at given sessions will make no over all difference. Point made, but...not so much in Baccarat. The objective in Baccarat is to find a good shoe, hit the run, streak or pattern, and then...leave. Good shoes do not present themselves all the time (although, the past couple years I have been very lucky, where the majority of my shoes have been good, predictable and purple and yellow chip fruitful ones), and once presented with a good one, it is important to get up and leave.

Many times after a good Baccarat shoe I have declared, "It's not going to get any better than that," colored up, and left. This is discipline This comes after years of play. Hunting for good shoes, and LEAVING after playing into them and winning, is another key to success at Baccarat.

Some will read the above, be unable to grasp it, and declare that at the end of the day Baccarat is just like roulette, or like a coin toss, where each event is independent and what happens before has nothing to do with what happens after. Not quite. A coin toss, is truly an independent event as it gears up for a new event each time the coin is picked up to be tossed again. If I walk up to a coin lying on the ground, whether there will be twenty heads in a row or not, is undetermined in advance. It is not fixed. It all depends on the random probability of what ensues.

But if I walk up to a Baccarat shoe that has 22 players in a row followed by one bank followed by 26 players in a row ready to be dealt out from it, I WILL get every one of the players. There is zero chance that this will not happen. The cards are set in the deck. And this is the subtle but important distinction between a set deck of cards and a coin toss. It has nothing to do with superstition or gambler's fallacy that some shoes will have massive streaks or recurring patterns in them, and others will not. Once the shoe is shuffled, cut and the burn cards removed, whatever will be, will be, and it is up to you to take advantage of that shoe, or not. If you're lucky enough to walk up to a shoe with long streaks, and you are a good player, you will win a lot.

That there are, in fact, good or bad shoes is additionally demonstrated by the fact that high rollers routinely clock the casino for millions when presented with series of good, streaking, predictable shoes. The luck is not in picking the right hand per se, the luck is in arriving to play at a good shoe. Where the skill comes, is in knowing whether one is playing into a good or bad shoe. This is not something that may be taught. It comes with years of experience.

All great gamblers know when he clutch has arrived: the time to press the bet. Poor gamblers will chicken out when presented with these opportunities, and will instead press the bet at the wrong time, and lose it all.
Last edited by MDawg; 01-19-2020 at 09:45 AM
link to original post

You forgot the best part about this system, method, fantasy is that the casinos let you win and they don’t care how much you win and continue to comp you for everything.

Quote: Hunterhill

You forgot the best part about this system, method, fantasy is that the casinos let you win and they don’t care how much you win and continue to comp you for everything.
link to original post

Bro, don't be thick, not only do they let you win forever and perpetually comp you, the hosts, pit bosses and dealers high five you and comment on how you ALLWAYS win.

Why do you and HunterHill keep breaking WOV rules with your posts, and think you may get away with it, is the more germane question to this forum.

What I am doing translates to real cash in my pocket, how do you two benefit from repeatedly about what I am doing?

MDawg says Hello!

Quote: AxelWolf

MDawg's AvatarMDawg MDawg is offline
Senior Member
Join Date
Nov 2019
Location
California
Posts
1,397
Default How do you win at Baccarat?

Most people look at the game like a random coin toss with a house edge. Such people could never win a nickel at Baccarat.

If Baccarat were truly random, with each hand completely independent from the prior one, there would be, in theory no way to win at the game. Looking from the outside, this appears to be what the game is - with prior hands offering no predictive value to guessing subsequent, future hands.

But any Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips knows that there are some shoes where patterns do repeat, versus other shoes that are completely random. But how to know if you're in the midst of a good shoe or bad shoe. Ay, there's the rub.

Let's start with an example of a good shoe, one with predictive value:
Click image for larger version.

Name: BaccShoe_PlayerSingle.jpg
Views: 3226
Size: 97.9 KB
ID: 189
In this shoe, the pattern very early on was to bet the bank whenever player came up. Even if you lost such a bet, doubling up on the bank for the next bet was a sure thing, because player never ran more than twice. This shoe was not just a banker's shoe, with far more bankers than players (3 bankers for every 1 player), but presented a simple, easy to follow pattern of "put everything on the bank after each player." You'd lose only two bets out of sixteen doing that.

If you think that people don't notice or act on such patterns in Baccarat, think again. I cut a shoe where neither the banker nor the player EVER went past two. On its surface, a lousy shoe - no runs, no streaks. But a Chinese guy came along, watched for a few minutes, and started putting anywhere from 5000 - 15000 on the opposite side every time a run of two had passed. He cleaned up! He prompted the rest of us to realize that there WAS in fact a winning pattern presented, and to take advantage of it.

There are many different types of shoes that present winning opportunities. Another is a shoe with long streaks of banker or player. My personal best and favorite was a shoe where the player ran 22 times in a row, followed by one bank, followed by 26 players in a row. I was betting 15,000 per hand on the third player, and it all the way through until I was ahead a quarter million over all, and then, unfortunately, cut back to just 800 per hand. Still, that run was the tail end of an over 400K win at two casinos, and I stopped after the run, and went home with all of it.

The first question would be, WHY would you have thought that the player was going to run after just two players. What made you decide to plop 15000 (the limit at that time) on player just because it had run twice? It was early in the shoe, why risk so much so quickly? Well, part of the reason was that I was already ahead quite a lot, and had been winning consistently, day in day out for about ten days straight, so I was chip heavy, and fearless. But also, I saw a natural nine followed by a natural eight in player, and something prompted me to feel that the player was due for a run. I even said the words out loud.

"Natural nine. Natural eight? Hmm."

As the run progressed the look on the pit boss' face! He actually slapped his forehead and stepped away from the table, reeling.

"Is anything going to stop this guy?" was what his look conveyed. I had been winning ten days straight, and was now in the home stretch, with the run of a lifetime.

I will admit that this experience has made me feel as though a player run is imminent, not every time, but sometimes, after the first two hands for player come in at natural nine, followed by natural eight. Has the player then run 22 times? No. It hasn't happened for me again. But, the player has run more often than not when I have felt that it will, and the proof in the pudding are my consistent Baccarat wins over time.

Now what about bad shoes? shoes where there is no discernible pattern and no runs? What to do there? Well, ideally, LEAVE, but at worst, cut back your bet. How do you know though that you're in the midst of a bad shoe? Well, the easiest way to know is that you are LOSING over fifty percent of your bets. If all your attempts to "follow the shoe" are resulting in multiple losing hands in a row, it's time to get up and find another shoe, cut back your bet, or free hand (ask for free hands to view results without betting) until a recurring pattern emerges. Of course this is easier said than done. Many Baccarat players upon losing some hands will start playing with emotion, betting bigger to try to catch up, versus simply getting up and leaving. Over time, the Baccarat winners learn not to "chase" losses, and Stay on Target with the search for good shoes only.

Which brings me to...hit and run. Some gamblers think that hit and run is meaningless, that over time a lifetime of sessions will even out wins and losses such that leaving ahead at given sessions will make no over all difference. Point made, but...not so much in Baccarat. The objective in Baccarat is to find a good shoe, hit the run, streak or pattern, and then...leave. Good shoes do not present themselves all the time (although, the past couple years I have been very lucky, where the majority of my shoes have been good, predictable and purple and yellow chip fruitful ones), and once presented with a good one, it is important to get up and leave.

Many times after a good Baccarat shoe I have declared, "It's not going to get any better than that," colored up, and left. This is discipline This comes after years of play. Hunting for good shoes, and LEAVING after playing into them and winning, is another key to success at Baccarat.

Some will read the above, be unable to grasp it, and declare that at the end of the day Baccarat is just like roulette, or like a coin toss, where each event is independent and what happens before has nothing to do with what happens after. Not quite. A coin toss, is truly an independent event as it gears up for a new event each time the coin is picked up to be tossed again. If I walk up to a coin lying on the ground, whether there will be twenty heads in a row or not, is undetermined in advance. It is not fixed. It all depends on the random probability of what ensues.

But if I walk up to a Baccarat shoe that has 22 players in a row followed by one bank followed by 26 players in a row ready to be dealt out from it, I WILL get every one of the players. There is zero chance that this will not happen. The cards are set in the deck. And this is the subtle but important distinction between a set deck of cards and a coin toss. It has nothing to do with superstition or gambler's fallacy that some shoes will have massive streaks or recurring patterns in them, and others will not. Once the shoe is shuffled, cut and the burn cards removed, whatever will be, will be, and it is up to you to take advantage of that shoe, or not. If you're lucky enough to walk up to a shoe with long streaks, and you are a good player, you will win a lot.

That there are, in fact, good or bad shoes is additionally demonstrated by the fact that high rollers routinely clock the casino for millions when presented with series of good, streaking, predictable shoes. The luck is not in picking the right hand per se, the luck is in arriving to play at a good shoe. Where the skill comes, is in knowing whether one is playing into a good or bad shoe. This is not something that may be taught. It comes with years of experience.

All great gamblers know when he clutch has arrived: the time to press the bet. Poor gamblers will chicken out when presented with these opportunities, and will instead press the bet at the wrong time, and lose it all.
Last edited by MDawg; 01-19-2020 at 09:45 AM
link to original post

Importing drama from other forums. Three days. I quote the whole thing deliberately.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Hunterhill

You forgot the best part about this system, method, fantasy is that the casinos let you win and they don’t care how much you win and continue to comp you for everything.
link to original post

Bro, don't be thick, not only do they let you win forever and perpetually comp you, the hosts, pit bosses and dealers high five you and comment on how you ALLWAYS win.
link to original post

The dealers - of course they high five me, they make money when I make money I'm dumping a couple grand or more into the toke box almost every session lately, via bets on the side for them.

The pit bosses, I never said they high five me. Two to three choice words have been heard however. "That's amazing."

Anyway as I said, it's just pathetic that it would bother either of you enough to make such incredibly negative and sarcastic comments. Wished into the cornfields far away from successful people like MDawg.

Day 17 play

Pretty long, pretty grueling. Was down as much as about -120K at least twice.

+8000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 18 play

Solid. I mean I was down a couple times around -20K but no biggie.

+49000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

This Vegas trip has been concluded.

What happened? You didn't win enough money?

Some other things to do.

Will be back before you can say blueberry pie.


Well, maybe not that fast. But pretty fast, okay?

Want to use Starbucks restroom for free? Think again

If you want to hang out or use the restroom at Starbucks, you’re going to have to buy something.

Starbucks on Monday said it was reversing a policy that invited everyone into its stores. A new code of conduct — which will be posted in all company-owned North American stores — also bans discrimination or harassment, consumption of outside alcohol, smoking, vaping, drug use and panhandling.

Starbucks spokesperson Jaci Anderson said the new rules are designed to help prioritize paying customers. Anderson said most other retailers already have similar rules.

“We want everyone to feel welcome and comfortable in our stores,” Anderson said. “By setting clear expectations for behavior and use of our spaces, we can create a better environment for everyone.”

The code of conduct warns that violators will be asked to leave, and says the store may call law enforcement, if necessary. Starbucks said employees would receive training on enforcing the new policy.

In Hawaii, especially Oahu, many of the fast food places don't even have restrooms in order to discourage the homeless from hanging out.

Quote: MDawg

Want to use Starbucks restroom for free? Think again

If you want to hang out or use the restroom at Starbucks, you’re going to have to buy something.

Starbucks on Monday said it was reversing a policy that invited everyone into its stores. A new code of conduct — which will be posted in all company-owned North American stores — also bans discrimination or harassment, consumption of outside alcohol, smoking, vaping, drug use and panhandling.

Starbucks spokesperson Jaci Anderson said the new rules are designed to help prioritize paying customers. Anderson said most other retailers already have similar rules.

“We want everyone to feel welcome and comfortable in our stores,” Anderson said. “By setting clear expectations for behavior and use of our spaces, we can create a better environment for everyone.”

The code of conduct warns that violators will be asked to leave, and says the store may call law enforcement, if necessary. Starbucks said employees would receive training on enforcing the new policy.

In Hawaii, especially Oahu, many of the fast food places don't even have restrooms in order to discourage the homeless from hanging out.
link to original post

It's not that Starbucks doesn't love love love the homeless drug abusers, problem is it's driving away all the paying customers. This was inevitable, who didn't see this coming.

I wonder how selective the enforcement will be? I've gone into Starbucks and used their WiFi occasionally, bathrooms more rarely, when traveling, without buying anything.

The bathroom only for customers policy has been in effect for years at certain Starbucks in southern California, and at those locations a code might be needed to enter the bathroom, but again, it depends on if they even notice the customer. For example, what if the customer walks in and wants to use the bathroom before ordering, how do they enforce that?

Supposedly Starbucks doing this as part of a campaign to revive "sagging sales," but whenever I walk by one inside a casino in the mornings it has a long line. In fact among stock traders a joke tossed about is how a rising stock that was sagging right after the bell, starts jumping later in the morning when all the people still standing in line to get their Starbucks at 7 were not touching it.