The Adventures of MDawg II

All sessions are reported. The winnings are as real as the watch I just bought with just some of the winnings which costs more than the average house in the mid-West.

Thanks! again for the support, cwwbjr. Yes, I've been on quite a roll. It's funny because at a recent session every time I won a big bet I'd shout at the pit boss to be sure and record it. Just taunting the pit boss, for fun. Pit boss kept pretending like didn't notice, but believe me, did. They're watching me closely but can't figure out how I'm winning so consistently. Occasionally some dark suit has appeared out of nowhere, but just fleeting glances. No grim reaper come to end my play.

But DarkOz, keep in mind that

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

also at the time cwwbjr and I were discussing this I had had sessions where I had won only a few K, and there were also some losing sessions. The reason I was pondering about a weekly target was because of these recent smaller win and even loss sessions, and also mostly because I was considering reducing the number of sessions to maybe just one a week.

There is no denying I have been on a serious roll! Sometimes winning begets more winning, at least right now it does, and I also have stepped up my average bet at key times when I know what is coming.


As far as BillRyan's snide comment, my response would be that not all of us may live extraordinary lives. Perhaps BR has, perhaps he has not?

Quote: billryan

I drove a Good Humour truck one summer, 1986 or 87. The markup wasn't that great. I'd sneak in some Good Humour I'd buy from the supermarket when it was on sale. At the time, most bars sold for75 cents and I'd pay 50% upfront to 70% if I paid after I sold them.
They also held back 10% of sales as a deposit on the truck. Rent was $200 a week rain or shine. It was fun but barely profitable. If I worked five days, I'd clear about $250 a week. I'd work a sixth day every couple of weeks but some guys worked seven days a week for the whole summer. If you finished your contract you'd get your 10% of sales back, which was a great going away bonus.
link to original post

His life perspective makes sense of all of his dry, sarcastic posts. People's attitudes reflect their life experience. For example there was a drawing lately where I was so busy winning at different casinos that I barely had time to show up at the casino in question and put in a couple hours play (where I ended up winning real money, too) just to get the minimum number of entries. Even with that, I ended up winning high four figures while many who played their arses off (and lost real money), weren't even drawn to win anything. For this, my wife pointed out that I was the luckiest person she has ever known, and mentioned that win (I also won something in the prior drawing at this same casino earlier this year). She pointed out that I won a fair sum with almost no entries, when so many failed with to the max entries. Her point in bringing this up was that I should go throw my name into the hat at these casinos that keep giving away cars. I responded to her that that was only at tribal casinos (the only tribal casino I can think of that I play at is Palms) and that we had a family friend who plays to the max at these casinos and never has won a car - in other words, that it's almost impossible to win these cars, which was when she pointed out my recent drawing win as evidence that I could in fact win a car.

Actually, I suppose my response should have been, Of course I'm lucky, I'm with you!

Come to think of it, why does BillRyan even post at WOV? I don't recall much gaming related posts from this fellow, but I do recall someone's advice about stocking up on discounted food and freezing it. He may tell us if that was he who gave that advice. Personally, I don't like to eat previously frozen anything.

I believe it was some old English guy who put it best.
"The Lady doth protest too much."

You seem to be protesting quite a bit. With most every post you make on this forum. 😄

And you (and anyone else) are free to put up ten grand. I'm not too proud to say that an extra 9500 would be meaningless. Meantime, remember what I said:


Some people MAKE things happen.

Others WATCH things happen.

Still others say - What the hell happened?



You don't hear much about guys who take their shot and miss. I'll tell you what happens to them: they end up humping crappy jobs on grave yard shifts, trying to figure out how they came up short.

Blancpain is apparently the oldest watchmaker in the world (1735 - by comparison Rolex is a relative Johnny Come Lately (1905)). I did not know that - may have to acquire a tourbillon from Blancpain too.

Talk about investments. Blancpain went under during the "quartz watch crisis," and Jean-Claude Biver bought them in 1982 for only 22,000 francs - sold the brand ten years later for 60 million.

Breguet may not be the oldest watchmaker (1775), but just think about the innovations that came from its founder Abraham Louis Breguet, including the parachute shock protection, the tourbillon or the Breguet overcoil balance-spring. I have a number of Breguets, and owners from its past include Napoleon Bonaparte and Winston Churchill.

So if I understand you correctly you are not reporting the wins in any consistent manner pertaining to when you actually did win.

So if you claim you win $35K on Tuesday that really might have been a session three weeks ago.

Then when you say you won ,$45K the next day on Wednesday that really could have been just last week even though reported one day after the report on Tuesday.

But the bottom line is you weren't certain a few weeks ago that you could actually make $10K a week. Correct?

Quote: MDawg

Best to just grind it along, 5-10K per day, and less risk of losing sessions, or go for more like 20-30K a day, with increased risk of losing sessions?
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The point of the ongoing conversation is/was, how much may be made with the least time and effort - and risk.

What are you up for the year Mdawg ? How much have you won over the last three years in Vegas ?

Duplicate

Quote: darkoz

Quote: Seedvalue

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: MDawg

Everyone knows what I do, as far as what I am hauling in. Full transparency. They might believe it or not believe it, but it's all there. And the MDawg challenge remains in place! Helll, you yourself paid me $2000. to prove myself. Thank you!


No one knows what's going on at your end, as long as you stick to inanely meaningless statements like "I make blah blah blah a week (but not every week)." But you may spend volumes trying to expound on what no one believes makes sense, makes sense (in your mind only). This is why people like BillRyan, EvenBob, SooPoo etc. have field days with you.
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I was staying out of this…. but you brought me in….

DarkOz did not intentionally mislead the forum with his erroneous $20k per week claim. He just did not realize that the rest of us interpret his phrase differently than he thought we would.
For my ‘field day with him’, in general, I believe his claims because they make sense mathematically. He has given some specific examples (with scorn from many APs). Heck, I really don’t know Dark, have never met him, but would be willing to bet his tax return would show income in the 6 figures from his operation.

For you, Big Dawg, why do you keep bringing up the same childish arguments with him? When I come to this thread I want to hear about your winning and losing sessions, the watches you are buying, the events you get invited to, the suites you get comped, etc…

This thread is NOT the MDawg/DarkOz ‘mine is bigger than yours’ thread!!!
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Thank you Soopoo.

What is strange is that I readily admit (and assuming MDawg's claims are true) that he is bigger financially than me. I have repeatedly said that while over a decade I have taken millions from Casinos that I am not currently a millionaire nor do I make a million a year.

While MDawg was supposedly born into a rich family.

Of course viewpoints are always ridiculous. He seems to think my working my way up from homelessness is shameful while his being Rich because his parents copulated before he was born is some type of status symbol.

Earning nothing winning everything seems to be his belief system.

But he does seem to believe I am some threat to him even though his daily winning claims(, sometimes as high as a quarter million in a day) dwarf my $20,000 a week but not every week claims by a magnitude.

I will confirm my tax returns show six figure income and have for the last few years.

EDIT: And now people may get confused by my claim I have taken millions from the Casinos.

To be clear I certainly have but not all goes into my own pocket. For years I have had a crew of about 12 core people who make THEIR living working for me at the Casinos.

I make six figures. They are making five. Add it all up over the years and my team has taken millions from the Casinos.
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Wow I’m really surprised you are not a millionaire currently. I actually don’t believe you, but maybe you are telling the truth. I’ve noticed many are now afraid to talk about what they make because it invites competition or jealous competitors.

If you are telling the truth there is most certainly a leak in your method or gambling. You clearly have the knowledge, and have put in the time so this is shocking to me. Perhaps you have purchased millions in pinball machines? Many people have a spending problem.
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I wouldn't call it a spending PROBLEM since all my bills are paid.

I even paid back all the back taxes from before I went homeless (I had no income so I didn't care) including twenty years of interest.

All paid back.

I make money to spend. What am I making money for otherwise? To stare at it like Scrooge?

There are those who have put away millions.

And then there are those who have spent millions.

But I never claimed to be the richest or most successful AP. Just the most feared!
link to original post

Well I think it’s more about what you can keep not what you make. There are plenty of guys making 10k or more a week just playing bonus games. Most of them lose it back gambling. Likewise I see many people in the card game who lose all their pickups back gambling. These guys are particularly annoying because they only sharpen up the casino and end up with nothing to show for it.

Quote: Seedvalue

Quote: darkoz

Quote: Seedvalue

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: MDawg

Everyone knows what I do, as far as what I am hauling in. Full transparency. They might believe it or not believe it, but it's all there. And the MDawg challenge remains in place! Helll, you yourself paid me $2000. to prove myself. Thank you!


No one knows what's going on at your end, as long as you stick to inanely meaningless statements like "I make blah blah blah a week (but not every week)." But you may spend volumes trying to expound on what no one believes makes sense, makes sense (in your mind only). This is why people like BillRyan, EvenBob, SooPoo etc. have field days with you.
link to original post

I was staying out of this…. but you brought me in….

DarkOz did not intentionally mislead the forum with his erroneous $20k per week claim. He just did not realize that the rest of us interpret his phrase differently than he thought we would.
For my ‘field day with him’, in general, I believe his claims because they make sense mathematically. He has given some specific examples (with scorn from many APs). Heck, I really don’t know Dark, have never met him, but would be willing to bet his tax return would show income in the 6 figures from his operation.

For you, Big Dawg, why do you keep bringing up the same childish arguments with him? When I come to this thread I want to hear about your winning and losing sessions, the watches you are buying, the events you get invited to, the suites you get comped, etc…

This thread is NOT the MDawg/DarkOz ‘mine is bigger than yours’ thread!!!
link to original post

Thank you Soopoo.

What is strange is that I readily admit (and assuming MDawg's claims are true) that he is bigger financially than me. I have repeatedly said that while over a decade I have taken millions from Casinos that I am not currently a millionaire nor do I make a million a year.

While MDawg was supposedly born into a rich family.

Of course viewpoints are always ridiculous. He seems to think my working my way up from homelessness is shameful while his being Rich because his parents copulated before he was born is some type of status symbol.

Earning nothing winning everything seems to be his belief system.

But he does seem to believe I am some threat to him even though his daily winning claims(, sometimes as high as a quarter million in a day) dwarf my $20,000 a week but not every week claims by a magnitude.

I will confirm my tax returns show six figure income and have for the last few years.

EDIT: And now people may get confused by my claim I have taken millions from the Casinos.

To be clear I certainly have but not all goes into my own pocket. For years I have had a crew of about 12 core people who make THEIR living working for me at the Casinos.

I make six figures. They are making five. Add it all up over the years and my team has taken millions from the Casinos.
link to original post

Wow I’m really surprised you are not a millionaire currently. I actually don’t believe you, but maybe you are telling the truth. I’ve noticed many are now afraid to talk about what they make because it invites competition or jealous competitors.

If you are telling the truth there is most certainly a leak in your method or gambling. You clearly have the knowledge, and have put in the time so this is shocking to me. Perhaps you have purchased millions in pinball machines? Many people have a spending problem.
link to original post

I wouldn't call it a spending PROBLEM since all my bills are paid.

I even paid back all the back taxes from before I went homeless (I had no income so I didn't care) including twenty years of interest.

All paid back.

I make money to spend. What am I making money for otherwise? To stare at it like Scrooge?

There are those who have put away millions.

And then there are those who have spent millions.

But I never claimed to be the richest or most successful AP. Just the most feared!
link to original post

Well I think it’s more about what you can keep not what you make. There are plenty of guys making 10k or more a week just playing bonus games. Most of them lose it back gambling. Likewise I see many people in the card game who lose all their pickups back gambling. These guys are particularly annoying because they only sharpen up the casino and end up with nothing to show for it.
link to original post

I agree. My definition of keep is different it seems so to be clear when I say spend I mean on non-gambling items.

If I leave a casino with ten thousand dollars I made that.

If I take my family to Disneyland with it then I spent it.

And I can't say I still have what I spent so I didn't keep it.

Do I have a spending problem? Not in my opinion. Taking the family on vacation or buying a home theater or whatever I want isn't a problem. Or maybe it's a problem everyone would love to have lol.

SeedValue this has been my best casino year ever, and I am up a LOT. I don't keep throwing my net worth or what I made exactly this year at the "casino business" out there though. I know you like to throw those numbers out there regularly but my net worth is not relevant to my casino play and what exactly I made this year in the casinos, anyone who wants to could just add up my sessions.

Over all, as you probably know, wealth is as much a mentality as a number. One guy could be bringing in a lot of money and still be living paycheck to paycheck, with not much to show for it, and another bringing in less and have a lot of assets both liquid and fixed.

I will say that I am bringing in enough from the casinos lately for me to spend (I will refrain from using the word "blow" 😄) six figures on a single watch without thinking about it too much. But I am trying not to do that again (anytime soon) because I have too many expensive watches and it is becoming a mild addiction. But they are assets and I buy them at prices well below retail and they become investments.

DarkOz if I am spending (again refrain from using the word blowing) twenty grand on a vacation trip, which have done lots of times, I will not do that unless I brought in at least 10X that that month, in other words, I am pretty conservative when it comes to spending on anything that does not result in a fixed asset. Food of course, that's an exception, but I'm more the type who might spend thirty dollars a pound on a dry aged ribeye from a top grocer to grill at home, versus constantly going out and eating at restaurants paying the restaurant a hundred (or more) dollars a pound to be served a steak (of course, we are talking about restaurants not in Vegas, where I am not comp'ed - if I am being comp'ed I'll make the casino pay for a $1500. a pound steak).

Let me ask you a question DarkOz, just to get a feel for where you are at - do you believe in life insurance? Are you married?

Quote: MDawg

SeedValue this has been my best casino year ever, and I am up a LOT. I don't keep throwing my net worth or what I made exactly this year at the "casino business" out there though. I know you like to throw those numbers out there regularly but my net worth is not relevant to my casino play and what exactly I made this year in the casinos, anyone who wants to could just add up my sessions.

Over all, as you probably know, wealth is as much a mentality as a number. One guy could be bringing in a lot of money and still be living paycheck to paycheck, with not much to show for it, and another bringing in less and have a lot of assets both liquid and fixed.

I will say that I am bringing in enough from the casinos lately for me to spend (I will refrain from using the word "blow" 😄) six figures on a single watch without thinking about it too much. But I am trying not to do that again (anytime soon) because I have too many expensive watches and it is becoming a mild addiction. But they are assets and I buy them at prices well below retail and they become investments.

DarkOz if I am spending (again refrain from using the word blowing) twenty grand on a vacation trip, which have done lots of times, I will not do that unless I brought in at least 10X that that month, in other words, I am pretty conservative when it comes to spending on anything that does not result in a fixed asset. Food of course, that's an exception, but I'm more the type who might spend thirty dollars a pound on a dry aged ribeye from a top grocer to grill at home, versus constantly going out and eating at restaurants paying the restaurant a hundred (or more) dollars a pound to be served a steak (of course, we are talking about restaurants not in Vegas, where I am not comp'ed - if I am being comp'ed I'll make the casino pay for a $1500. a pound steak).

Let me ask you a question DarkOz, just to get a feel for where you are at - do you believe in life insurance? Are you married?
link to original post

I am not married. Never have been. I have three kids all in their thirties. And six grandkids from six weeks (yeah brand new) to age sixteen.

I don't trust any insurance to be honest. So no I don't have life insurance.

My children are already each living in their own. They found their way themselves. They got a life insurance payment from their mother when she passed last year from Cancer. I believe they already " blew" through it all.

EDIT: And with all those kids and grandkids you see why a trip to Disney costs $20,000 lol

Quote: darkoz

EDIT: And with all those kids and grandkids you see why a trip to Disney costs $20,000 lol
link to original post

Yes, I see!

There are two theories on life insurance, assuming you have someone for whom you need or wish to leave money behind.

One is to just sock it away yourself, invest it yourself, and it will grow at a good enough rate so that after you have lived a long enough life it will match or exceed the payout from the life insurance.

The other is to take out life insurance, term, universal or whole, and insure against an untimely demise.

Quote: MDawg

The other is to take out life insurance, term, universal or whole, and insure against an untimely demise.

To my wife's frustration I am still beating the odds.

My friend retired from NYPD about twenty years ago. He was entitled to 50% pay for the rest of his wife, with his wife getting nothing after he passed or about 40% with the wife collecting for life after he died. He went with the 50% option and bought a million-dollar life insurance policy. He died a few weeks later in a car crash. She got the insurance but also collected another million from the drivers
insurance company. His pension would have ended if she remarried, but the nest egg let her live nicely, educate her kids and not have to worry about if she wants to remarry or not.

This came across my YouTube feed. Guy has a few slot vouchers and cashes them in for 1,000 hundred dollar bills.

Quote: cwwbjr

Mdawg CAN DO !
Mdawg has " something more" according to the Wizard.

Can you remind us where Wizard said that?

Quote:

...no one on this forum has posted ever having come close to a documented and verified winning run over an extended period of time to the extent that he has.

Documented and verified only by MDawg.
You choose to believe him.
Some choose to believe horoscopes.

Good ol’ OnceDear. Always consistent, whether Mod or civilian.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss!

Quote: MDawg

I shared privately with the Wizard additional checks issued to me by the casinos, dating from the very end of May 2021, to end of June 2021, totaling approximately $250K (where all but approx. 100K was memo marked as "verified win" or "verified chips" - the remaining 100K had no memo on the check(s) at all), and these are besides the ones I shared with the Wizard before for the period March to May 2021.

The Wizard stated that he had no objection to my posting the above since it is true. Stated that he will not be verifying images at the forum any longer though.

The prior winning checks, that the Wizard did post verifications about at the forum in this thread, totaled some $260K, so that's a half million in winning checks issued to me for verified wins in the past few months, notwithstanding cashed chips and those converted to straight cash.


I am not sure if you are aware of this or not, but casinos will not issue checks other than for VERIFIED WINNINGS or return of front money cashier's check money. I am a credit line player only - no front money - so in my case, every penny of checks issued to me represents a WIN.
link to original post

I actually met with the Wizard recently and showed him both the new watch I bought, which I was wearing, and a stack of 25K chips I was walking around with in my pocket. We discussed the mid six figure value of the watch, and that the chips represented all wins. We didn't go further than discussing, no verifications, but MDawg is for real he's not going to B.S. anyone.

Money talks! B.S. walks:

Quote: MDawg

you (and anyone else) are free to put up ten grand. I'm not too proud to say that an extra 9500 would be meaningless. Meantime, remember what I said:


Some people MAKE things happen.

Others WATCH things happen.

Still others say - What the hell happened?
link to original post

Day 42 play.

Baccarat.

Actually ended up losing - but it was over two sessions where I dumped (ulp) -80000 at one casino then went to another and won +51000 so given the big win I don’t view it as such a bad day at all.

Very high average bet across the board around 8000.

-29000 (not counting the loss rebate that will be coming from the one casino to offset some of this)

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Quote: MDawg

Day 42 play.

Baccarat.

Actually ended up losing - but it was over two sessions where I dumped (ulp) -80000 at one casino then went to another and won +51000 so given the big win I don’t view it as such a bad day at all.

Very high average bet across the board around 8000.

-29000 (not counting the loss rebate that will be coming from the one casino to offset some of this)

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post

Of course without mentioning which casino, have you had recent wins at the casino you dumped $80k at? Meaning, say you won $100k at that casino over the past few weeks, as your reports indicate (but NOT saying at the same casino), will you still get a loss rebate based on a single bad session?

If so, depending on exactly how you play, getting ‘single session’ loss rebates consistently can EASILY make baccarat +EV.

Another question…. Would you say you are up in the 6 figures this year NOT including loss rebates?

Definitely up in the six figures this year, however you want to calculate it.

As far as the loss rebate for the -80K session, well, as far as my loss rebate agreements I negotiated, it is per session or at least trip (session or trip depending on the casino, depending on the arrangement negotiated). The definition of what is a separate session or trip varies with the casino and it can get tricky because I am not always staying in house when playing. As mentioned one of the casinos is saying that they want to reevaluate the arrangement, because I have done nothing but win at that casino for some time. It hasn't become an issue yet because I haven't had any losing session to speak of at that casino.

Las Vegas detectives investigate Gold Coast casino robbery.

Amazing that these sorts of things still happen.

And this was a different crime, last week - amazing that this guy thought he could get away with it, coming and going to the robbery with a taxi.
Last week, sources told 8 News Now Investigators that a man took a taxi to Resorts World on the Las Vegas Strip, robbed the casino, and then left in the cab with an undisclosed amount of money on Nov. 10. No information about the robbery has been publicly released.

Now here's the thing about RW. Its main cage is located pretty centrally. A robber would need to go through quite a bit of casino just to get to an exit point. But they have a second high limit cage, right by the Crockford's high limit Baccarat salon. To get to that is just a quick walk through the Crockford's lobby, the salon and bam you're at the cage. Don't even have to go through the main casino to get to it. I would guess that whoever pulled off this RW robbery had his taxi wait for him at the Crockford's porte-cochere, went in, robbed the high limit cage, and back out within minutes.

It's interesting because when the casino opened, the RW VIP Opening party was held partly in that high limit salon, and at that time, over a year ago, my wife commented on how close the high limit cage was to the main entrance, and how that might invite would be criminals. I always thought it was bad logistics myself, looking at it from either a casino owner or real estate developer's point of view.

Similarly the guy who pulled off the craps table robbery at the Bellagio, went in and out through the North Entrance - much less casino through which to walk in and out.

This guy I assume tried the same M.O. but was less fortunate. Man trying to rob Bellagio Casino for 2nd time killed in police shootout We were looking down at the crime scene from a Vegas suite that very night, wondering what all the flashing LVMPD car lights meant.

But the distance even from the North Bellagio valet entrance to the nearest craps table or casino cage is still longer than the quick jaunt from the Crockford's valet entrance to the RW high limit cage.

Was in a couple of blackjack tournaments lately. Didn't make it past the second round in either one. Tournament strategy and blackjack skills are one thing, but...you also need at least a little luck to win these things. And patience.

Day 43 play.

Baccarat.

And this is where loss rebate really comes into play. -50K one casino. +50K at another (could have won more but had to get going to an event so I stopped when even for the day).

Third quick session after event won a little.

+500 (not counting loss rebate profit)

Billy Morrison wearing what appears to be a solid gold Rolex Daytona.


From the MDawg collection:


And here's something you don't see too often these days on stage. A musician smoking a cigarette. Who does he think he is? Keith Richards? But Keith would never wear any yellow gold other than his wedding band. And he quit smoking.

In my case Ones. S. Plural.

https://movie-sounds.org/famous-movie-samples/quotes-with-sound-clips-from-trading-places-1983/it-were-no-cop-man-it-was-cops-plural-nine-or-ten-cops

Quote: MDawg

From the MDawg collection:


link to original post

Make sure the chrono pushers are screwed down on that gold one so dust and moisture doesn't get in there.

100%, yes.

I checked both watches and while the 18K Daytona's chrono pushers were screwed down tight,


the vintage stainless one's were not! They are tight now.


Thanks! for prompting me to think about this. I'll have to check all my other Daytonas when we get back to California too (but of course my oldest Daytona, a 6239, has no screw down pushers).

My wife was scrolling through pics on my phone and saw the one I posted above


and laughed. Then she saw some pics of the new watch I got the one that costs more than the average house in the mid-West and declared that she wanted something like that too. But I explained that that watch, in solid platinum, and a tourbillon was too heavy and big for her wrist and that watches like that weren't made (weren't available) for women. I didn't use any technical terms just said, They don't make watches like that in women's sizes. Anyway, then she started commenting about how she never used to care about designer labels or luxury jewelry or watches but that I had gotten her started on all that. Did I? Actually mostly she designs her own clothing (some of your wives might buy her lines through white label, you never know what's out there!) but lately with all the free gift cards we have gotten from the casinos she has had no choice but to spend on other designers' luxury brands.

There are a hundred boxes, one of which contains a prize.

A hundred participants who choose a box, one at a time. There is no way to know which box contains the prize all are identical.

Is there any advantage to being the first person to pick? or disadvantage to being the last? Does it matter?

Quote: MDawg

There are a hundred boxes, one of which contains a prize.

A hundred participants who choose a box, one at a time. There is no way to know which box contains the prize all are identical.

Is there any advantage to being the first person to pick? or disadvantage to being the last? Does it matter?
link to original post

Easy question. But why pose it?

IF the boxes are opened and revealed progressively, then going sooner rather than later has the advantage. The ONLY advantage being that one would not need to waste the time and effort of taking and opening an empty box if the prize is known to be gone. Unless you are desirous of an empty box.
If the boxes are not opened and revealed progressively, then order of taking makes zero difference.
Probability of holding a prize is 1/100 till boxes start to get opened.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: MDawg

There are a hundred boxes, one of which contains a prize.

A hundred participants who choose a box, one at a time. There is no way to know which box contains the prize all are identical.

Is there any advantage to being the first person to pick? or disadvantage to being the last? Does it matter?
link to original post

Easy question. But why pose it?

IF the boxes are opened and revealed progressively, then going sooner rather than later has the advantage. The ONLY advantage being that one would not need to waste the time and effort of taking and opening an empty box if the prize is known to be gone. Unless you are desirous of an empty box.
If the boxes are not opened and revealed progressively, then order of taking makes zero difference.
Probability of holding a prize is 1/100 till boxes start to get opened.
link to original post

Huh?


If boxes opened and taken away then order doesn’t matter. The last person has a 100% chance of getting the prize when it’s his turn! But only a 1% chance that the last person will ever get a turn.

Quote: OnceDear

IF the boxes are opened and revealed progressively, then going sooner rather than later has the advantage. The ONLY advantage being that one would not need to waste the time and effort of taking and opening an empty box if the prize is known to be gone. Unless you are desirous of an empty box.
If the boxes are not opened and revealed progressively, then order of taking makes zero difference.
Probability of holding a prize is 1/100 till boxes start to get opened.
link to original post

In practice, the contest operators often don't let you keep the empty box - they reuse them for the next promotion.

Quote: MDawg

There are a hundred boxes, one of which contains a prize.

A hundred participants who choose a box, one at a time. There is no way to know which box contains the prize all are identical.

Is there any advantage to being the first person to pick? or disadvantage to being the last? Does it matter?
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The boxes are not opened until everyone (all 100) have a box. All of the boxes weigh and feel the same (including if shaken). No one knows if he won until the very end when the boxes are opened all at the same time. Not that any of that matters statistically.

Each box contains some crappy consolation prize worth $20. but one of the boxes contains access to a prize worth over $100,000.

The box picking position of each participant is assigned randomly.

Just wondering if it matters whether a given participant gets assigned randomly the #1 box picking position, the #50 box picking position or the #100 box picking position (or anything in between). I would think not but just checking with our resident mathematicians.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

There are a hundred boxes, one of which contains a prize.

A hundred participants who choose a box, one at a time. There is no way to know which box contains the prize all are identical.

Is there any advantage to being the first person to pick? or disadvantage to being the last? Does it matter?
link to original post

The boxes are not opened until everyone (all 100) have a box. All of the boxes weigh and feel the same (including if shaken). No one knows if he won until the very end when the boxes are opened all at the same time. Not that any of that matters statistically.

Each box contains some crappy consolation prize worth $20. but one of the boxes contains access to a prize worth over $100,000.

The box picking position of each participant is assigned randomly.

Just wondering if it matters whether a given participant gets assigned randomly the #1 box picking position, the #50 box picking position or the #100 box picking position (or anything in between). I would think not but just checking with our resident mathematicians.
link to original post

It doesn’t matter, assuming you can’t tell by looking or shaking before you pick.

Day 44 play.

Baccarat.

Set back day. Well, it happens.

-45000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 45 play.

Baccarat.

Was determined to break fifty and I did. Might’ve won more but was getting tired - long session punctuated by two sumptuous meals.

+52000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

When you hear the music, you make a dip
Into someone else's pocket then make a slip
You steal a car and go to Las Vegas
Ooh, the gigolo pool
Hanging out by the state line, turning holy water into wine
Drinking it down
Ooh, I'm on a bus on a psychedelic trip
I'm reading murder books, tryin' to stay hip
And I'm thinkin' of you, you're out there, so
Say your prayers
Say your prayers
Say your prayers

Day 46 play.

Baccarat.

Not a good one!

-85000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Quote: MDawg

Day 46 play.

Baccarat.

Not a good one!

-85000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post

Did this event occur at the casino/hotel you are staying at or at another venue?

tuttigym

It was at a casino I had simply walked into for a session. The way it went was I was up a little, maybe +10K, then down about -45K, then rallied to go to about +55K, then again was down about -30K then again to about +55K, then had a series of really big bets that took me way down, and then I stopped. I should have taken the +55K which was the ceiling I hit twice after being down a fair amount twice, but I kept pushing it too far, and for that - I paid the price.

Besides the obvious of not accepting a nice amount ahead and just walking, part of the problem was that I hadn't eaten much of anything that day. I was pretty much starved by the time I had played for several hours. I started telling myself that I needed to take a break to eat, but I pushed onwards, caught up in all the moments of when I was winning hand after hand. Eventually when the inevitable period arrived when I was losing most of the hands, I lacked the self control to stop partly because I was hungry and tired. High stakes gambling is serious business and you have to be in top physical and mental shape to take proper advantage of the sometimes ever changing situations.

Hindsight is 20/20 hopefully you will have something to be thankful for tomorrow

Yes of course. Nothing is worse than ending up behind after being ahead! However I was shooting for a bigger win than +55K and that turned out to be a bad thing.

Which gets back to what I have said many times in the past, that it's often not the house edge that takes us behind, or our player advantage that takes us ahead, but the realisticness (is that a word?) of our goal as measured against our bankroll and the casino max bet. If the goal is unrealistic, bets are varied greatly (not flat betting) and one's sessions are all do or dies to get that unrealistic goal or walk away losing a lot or even the entire session bankroll, over time I think the results will not be good and will reflect a loss of more than the house edge (assuming no player advantage).

For example, I know a really big Bacc player who is allowed to play to $400,000. per hand, and this player has a seemingly limitless bankroll, but whatever the player has available each trip at the casino, whether 5 million or 10, or whatever, seems to lose it every time all of it, never walks with anything, always plays until nothing left. I assume is chasing insurmountable losses or has some unrealistic goal each time.


Typically when I have a big blowout like the Day 46 loss I take a break for several days. Writing about it here and reflecting on it helps too.

It also comes back to the discussion cwwbjr have been having for some time about what is the safest and least time consuming way to advance my play. While going for +50K or more wins each time is definitely feasibly, clearly trying to go for such a win each time also leads to blowouts of equal or even greater numbers.

Going for 10 - 15K per a session seems more definite, and I can't recall too many sessions where I didn't get ahead at least somewhere in that neighborhood at some point. If indeed 10 - 15K is manageably sustainable sans blowouts that might just be the way to go.

Visited the Ethel M. chocolate botanical cactus garden in Henderson, decorated with over a million Christmas lights and Holiday decor. The line the night we went was about twenty minutes long. Admission fee a mere dollar per person, but drinks such as hot chocolate are $5. and photos with Santa $25. each (we bought two, and then got all five digital pics as downloads too). My wife looked pretty darling on Santa's lap, and when asked what she wanted for Christmas said, Diamonds!

Next to the cactus garden visit the Ethel M. chocolate factory and view the confectionery making process.

Wishing Everyone, Happy Thanks! (There is always something to be Thankful for 😎. )

Quote: MDawg

T.I. is fallin' apart 'ere.

Strip View...signage intact.


Back side...not so intact. Missing the -SURE portion of treasure. Burned out!


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T.I. got it together and repaired their back side sign to its full glory, it reads TREASURE ISLAND again.

Just 45 minutes from the Strip, Walking in a Winter Wonderland at Mt. Charleston.

Day 47 play.

Baccarat.

Pretty smooth session.

+26000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.