The Adventures of MDawg II

Thanks for posting the chopmarks. I've seen political stamps on currency but not these tiny chopmarks. I just read several articles about them. Interesting.

I am intrigued by the spider on the one dollar bill...what a web he wove!

Many many years ago there was a scandal over the word SEX that was engraved in Lincoln's beard on the $5 bill.

I think this goes back to 1970.

Around the same time there were subliminal images in advertising including images of couples having sex and the images were hidden in the eye pupils of models.

Day 5 play.

Baccarat.

Was up a little at a couple points but mostly down, never got back to even, hate to admit it - but was Chasing some. Finally just ended the session, as no advantage was forthcoming.

-21000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

“The struggle is not between you and the casino; the struggle is between you and yourself.”

Quote: MDawg

Let's set aside advantage or no advantage play for a moment, and consider only variance.

If the variance of a gaming session is viewed as a sine wave,


and the upper part of the wave times when variance supports the player and the bottom parts of the wave times when variance support the house, then if a player leaves a session at say, this point in the variance,


that is not to say that when the player resumes play at some point in the future that he will resume play at exactly that same point in the variance - so to say that all of one's gaming sessions combined equal just one long session, is simplistic, when variance is considered. Rather, each session has its own independent ups and downs and unless the player resumes play at exactly where he left off for purposes of variance, resumption of play is not exactly a mere continuation of the same play.

Getting back to the sine wave of variance, if a player always tends to quit when he is losing, at the bottom of the variance curves, such as here


he's going to tend to have a lot of sessions strung together where variance was against him at the moment that he left.

On the other hand if a player tends to get up and leave after variance was in his favor,


and the chips were stacking his way, he'd tend to put together a lot of sessions where he was winning.

Add to the equation a player who varies his bet a lot, and variance might swing even more widely up and down, making the difference between leaving while ahead, or behind, even more pronounced over numerous sessions.

It adds up to the difference between constantly leaving a session after a good run, or constantly leaving after all the chips from a run are eaten up.

(Ninety some percent of Vegas visitors are ahead at some point during their trips, but the vast majority keep playing until they are behind.)
link to original post

If variance worked that way, then it would make sense to think in terms of “sessions.”

You are postulating that there is some sort of momentum to a session where recent past results influence chance of winning current hand. I think? Or are you saying something else?

Variance does work that way in that sometimes it favors the player and sometimes favors the casino. As to whether it exactly goes up and down sinusoidally, I'm just trying to give variance some sort of representation in terms of that it fluctuates.

I am not talking about "there is some sort of momentum to a session where recent past results influence chance of winning current hand" - I am not saying that at all - most of what I am saying is that is that it is imprecise to say that the end of one session and the beginning of a new one continues at exactly the same point in terms of variance favorability (or unfavorability) as was left off.

And therefore, if you sat at the table continuously and played never getting up, you would not necessarily achieve the same variance results as if you played multiple sessions separated in time. (In other words - your gambling life is not exactly "just one long session" where it makes no difference where you stop or start.)

And if you'll think about our little problem along them lines...


and you'll forgive me for sayin' it...a string of sessions quitting at times after you've experienced a good run, versus a string of sessions quitting after you've experienced a bad run, are not the same thing.

Day 6 play.

Baccarat.

Back on track. Some big bets mostly winners.

+11200

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Play may be tiring though. I take a day to days off here and there.

Day 7 play.

Baccarat.

Two sessions. Won pretty well at one came back from well behind to win a little at the other.

Two cute girls wandered into the back area and sat at my table, not realizing it was reserved. The pit boss was about to chase them off when I said, No, I believe I can hang out with you fellas for a little while, so I let them stay and they didn't win anything, but they didn't lose either. After I won, I left and told the pit boss they could keep playing at my table if they wanted.

I got their names but left it at that. It was just fun to watch them in action, was all, because they got so into the game.

+7700

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

This is the seafood before cooking, lobster still live.


Those carabineros cost a ridiculous $149. / pound and most of it is inedible shell - just a little shrimp tail comes out of each. They are good though!


The fish is a loup de mer.



The lobster shell is provided for show, nothing in there the meat is already mixed in with the pasta.








Meal will set you back four bills not including tip, if you are not on a comp. Is it worth it? Well, It's Vegas.

Day 8 play.

Baccarat.

Two sessions. First one, betting like a madman, won very little. The bit bets mostly cancelled out. Second session, barely betting, won a decent sum.

Just the way it goes sometimes.

+6300

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Here's a prime ribeye, ordered rare for takeout.



Actually a really good steak, rich deep flavor, much better than it looks.

Don't forget the foie gras.

Very refreshing health drink.

Lately I am maintaining a stack of two dollar bills for tipping cocktail waitresses. As something different to do. Some of the girls say, "I love! two dollar bills."

Anyway at a recent session I stuck some hundreds in the wrong end of my wallet and pulled out a hundred by mistake.

"Oh, that's a mistake."

"It's at your discretion."

Really? I thought. If everyone gave her a hundred she'd have more money than I do.




"I'm supposed to give you a twenty. Guy would wind up with more money than me."

Quote: MDawg

Anyway at a recent session I stuck some hundreds in the wrong end of my wallet and pulled out a hundred by mistake.

I have accidentally given a Valet driver a $100 bill without noticing.

With grocery store inflation, maybe $2 tips are in order now.

I got a problem with small places.

I got a problem with spending ten thousand dollars on ungrateful peanut heads to get 'em out of jail, but I did it. And how small was that jail cell?

Day 9 play.

Baccarat.

Three monster sessions, two at the same casino. First one was a big loser, second session fairly big winner, third one got me close to even for the day but not quite.

I was betting pretty heavily throughout.

-11000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 10 play.

Baccarat.

Small winner but back on track.

+6200

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Quote: MDawg

I will tell you Right Now that one of the casinos has taken measures to prevent anyone from viewing any bit of any card before it is dealt. But - they didn't think to prohibit betting after Cards Are Out.

What's funny is that the casinos that are strict about no betting after cards are out, allow full view of the cards before they come out. And then one casino allows the cards to just sit on the table, fully exposed, and then have bets placed.

None of it really makes any sense, as there is no consistency, but I don't think they believe any of it matters. Which it doesn't, does it. Or does it?
link to original post

This is one of the new machines that prevents viewing of any bit of the card before it is released.

Saturday night, a sea of people out there on and around the Strip.

This was earlier before it started getting busier.


I believe there was a crash at LV Blvd. and Flamingo too, which locked up traffic in a couple directions.

Quote: MDawg

This is one of the new machines that prevents viewing of any bit of the card before it is released.


link to original post

I was intrigued and did some looking around.

The machines that are supposed to lock up and not allow a card to be drawn when it is against the Baccarat rules actually fail sometimes. I have not seen them allow a card to be drawn when it is not supposed to be drawn, but I have seen them lock up and not allow a card out when it is supposed to be drawn. In those instances the pit boss has to turn the machine off and then the dealer may pull the card out.

As well, I've seen dealers make a mistake to try to draw a card when it is against Baccarat rules. At such times I've seen dealers pull hard and the card comes part way out anyway, even though it is not supposed to come out.

When these mistakes happen the card might get a bit mangled.

The video you post is of the older Bee-Tek machines. That youtube video is five years old. The "card guard" feature that is supposed to prevent pulling out a card when the hand is finished and no draw is warranted, is functionally the same in the older and newer machines.
The difference though is that these newer models cover up the window entirely.


Besides the "card guard" feature that some electronic shoes have, the advantage for the house to the card reading shoes is that no outside cards may be introduced or switched into the shoe because the machine reads the cards and knows the hand outcome before the cards are even turned over.

I have - rarely - seen a dealer mess up and mix up the cards coming out, but the official hand outcome is deferred to what the card reading shoe declares. If a player challenges the results, the house might void the hand just to keep the player from thinking that any funny business is going on.

Quote: MDawg

The video you post is of the older Bee-Tek machines. That youtube video is five years old. The "card guard" feature that is supposed to prevent pulling out a card when the hand is finished and no draw is warranted, is functionally the same in the older and newer machines.
The difference though is that these newer models cover up the window entirely.
link to original post

I did see the brushes obscuring the finger slot, but not the ramp.

Been in a few blackjack tournaments lately.

In each round it's come down to the last hand, with a few interesting scenarios at tables at which I played or observed.


One table, with two players advancing, final hand (no secret bet), three players still standing (one will be eliminated):
Final chip counts, approximately 9000, 12000, 13000. 9000 player went first and bet 6100. 12000 player mirrors at 6100. 13000 player bets last with 6600.

Cards dealt, dealer 8 up
9000 player gets a hard 16
12000 player a hard 13
13000 player a hard 20.

9000 player kept deliberating. What's to deliberate about? If stands with a hard 16, the next player the 12000 player will stand too, and then win or lose will beat the 9000 player, since their hands would be identical (below 17). Finally, the 9000 player hit and busted. so at that point the hand outcome for the 12000 player no longer mattered.


Another table, two players left standing, only one will advance, no secret bet:
Final chip counts: about the same.
First player goes all in, second player follows and goes almost all in reserving one chip.

Cards dealt, dealer 9 up.
First player gets a 16, hits gets a 4. Second player gets a hard 13. Hits, gets a 2, hits again, gets another 2, stands with 17.
Dealer turns over another 9, first player wins, wins, second player loses.

Circa does have a nice high energy vibe. And their tables are always good for a small touch, if you know what you are doing.

Another Blackjack tournament final hand of the round, only one player advances, two players left standing.

Player #1 has to bet first on the last hand, chip count 28000.
Player #2, chip count 30000.

Player #1 bets 6500.
Player #2 mirrors with 6500. (Makes sense?)

Player #1 gets a hard 15, Player #2 a hard 14, dealer 5 up.

Player #1 sits there thinking forever, Duh, like, what's to think about? Don't hit and you guarantee that Player #2 will win.

Player #1, actually doubles down, and gets an ace.

Player #2, just stands, dealer turns over a 10, draws another 10, busts with 25 total.

Player #1 wins, advances.

(Upon checking the next card in the window is also a 10, so Player #2 was out of luck no matter what did.)

Day 10 play.

Baccarat.

Two separate sessions. First easy win. Second back and forth to end up winning a little.

+7100

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Best to just grind it along, 5-10K per day, and less risk of losing sessions, or go for more like 20-30K a day, with increased risk of losing sessions?

Quote: MDawg

Circa does have a nice high energy vibe. And their tables are always good for a small touch, if you know what you are doing.




link to original post

Thanks for the photos of the tables.
Mdawg a question please.

If you were SITTING in the CENTER SEAT of any of those tables could you view the cards in play at either the table on your left or the table on the right?

In other words, if you were a card counter, could you count two tables simultaneously?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MDawg

Circa does have a nice high energy vibe. And their tables are always good for a small touch, if you know what you are doing.




link to original post

Thanks for the photos of the tables.
Mdawg a question please.

If you were SITTING in the CENTER SEAT of any of those tables could you view the cards in play at either the table on your left or the table on the right?

In other words, if you were a card counter, could you count two tables simultaneously?
link to original post

I will answer No you can’t accurately. Attempting to do so is just fancy play syndrome IMO. Pointless

However Teams do utilize back-counters who will single to someone to sit or Wong in when the count is good.

We gambling go for the 20k to 30k.

Slow and steady wins the race.
Money vs Time at table and favorability of shoes will vary.
Say at $100 min to $20K max bet table using $1000 as minimum starting bet, expect minimum average take of 5 units per shoe at private table at your own pace for 3 shoes under 3 hours easily netting $15K day is a sweet spot with minimum risk of blowout. KDP knowledge, discipline, patience.

Quote: cwwbjr

Slow and steady wins the race.
Money vs Time at table and favorability of shoes will vary.
Say at $100 min to $20K max bet table using $1000 as minimum starting bet, expect minimum average take of 5 units per shoe at private table at your own pace for 3 shoes under 3 hours easily netting $15K day is a sweet spot with minimum risk of blowout. KDP knowledge, discipline, patience.
link to original post

I think 5 units average per shoe is too much. Almost imposiblle in the long run. 1-1.5 units per shoe is more realistic. In long sessions you can play arround 20 shoes per day, thats 20%-30% of your bankroll every day, insane numbers I know, mostly in Baccarat that is a -EV game for almost all the people here, but for me at least it´s clearily that MDawg have some kind of edge and he can do that numbers in the long run.

It does of course depend on the shoe. On a recent session I won about $6K in in just a small number of hands, pressing on side by side 7 Bank, 7 Player runs. Barely betting, but the runs came right in the beginning of the shoe. Right after the runs, I free handed a few, saw that shoe wasn't running that way any longer, and left. On such occasions no advantage is needed, which my advantage comes up only every now and then not of course on every hand or anything close.

For that shoe, winning $6K was underbetting.

On another session, same day, with difficulty I won just a couple K, over the course of 3 shoes. On that session, the only reason I won was I was able to use a large bet on an advantage hand, to get back to even, after being slowly ground down. On that session, a couple K was about all that was available unless I had simply not bet at all until that certain hand came up, which isn't really an option when playing alone, to free hand dozens and dozens of hands in a row.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MDawg

Circa does have a nice high energy vibe. And their tables are always good for a small touch, if you know what you are doing.
link to original post

Thanks for the photos of the tables.
Mdawg a question please.

If you were SITTING in the CENTER SEAT of any of those tables could you view the cards in play at either the table on your left or the table on the right?

In other words, if you were a card counter, could you count two tables simultaneously?
link to original post

I actually don't play out there at Circa, but in high limit there is a double deck at the end of the oval, with a six deck shoe next to it, set up like this.


The layout has changed, there are no longer Baccarat tables up against the far wall, there are two of them side by side next to the table I marked "Baccarat," but the Double Deck and Shoe Blackjack games are set up the same, with approximately that distance between them.

I have played that Double Deck table and while playing it, if I am the only player, which I would normally be and ask the table to be reserved for me, and I am seated on the seat closest to the shoe table, if the other player were all the way to the left, I could see what was going on, but, even with very sharp eyes which I have perfect vision, still, on some cards I'd be able to figure the value from the dots but not necessarily see them perfectly. Also, I'd have to keep turning to the right to look over my shoulder.

And then, if I were sitting in the middle of the DD table, I would not have to turn my head so much as my eyes, but I would be farther away and if the player were seated all the way to the left, he might block my view some.

None of this discussion matters if the casino in question does not allow mid shoe entry.

I suppose I would look as much to the person saying this as to the claimed act. If the person claiming this were someone with inconsistent stories who had lied constantly on the forums, I'd discount whatever that person had to say, and assume was just talking about something read about in books. There are probably different people making claims, again, I'd look to the person.

At a different casino, Palms, in high limit if I stand up at the Baccarat table and look to the right at the double deck,


and again the layout has changed this is the old high limit room, but I have marked where the Bacc is and a double deck table is, if I stand up at the Bacc table I can see the cards running next door at Blackjack, but still on some cards I'll have to calculate based on the dots won't be able to see the numbers easily.

I actually did that the other day and was going to jump in for some hands, but didn't bother.

Much easier, as mentioned by SeedValue, is to just stand behind the table and count and then jump in. I have done that before just stand there counting and then jumped in with a single table limit bet, which actually ended up being a double down, and won. But again, no mid shoe entry, and none of that counting from a distance matters.

You see the thing about that "jumping in with one bet" deal, is that some casinos welcome the shot takers who drift in and take a shot, and unless they see a pattern where the same person always takes a shot at the exact same time, that person could get away with it almost indefinitely. Plus he's not going to win every time anyway.

Of course no one can tell you how much to bet without knowing the nature of your advantage! It sounds like your advantage varies from ‘none’ to ‘a lot’. Also, how much ‘cover’ do you think you need? Meaning if, let’s say, your advantage is ‘I know the first player card is a 9’ with a pretty big advantage betting on player, if you’ve been betting $200 and now all of a sudden you bet $10k does that bring you heat? When you are winning 2/3 of your big bets consistently over the years?
If you had a defined edge, like 1% each hand somehow, then the Kelly criterion could easily guide you on how much to bet.

If your advantage uses loss rebates, it gets a bit more complicated.

Baccarat provides its own cover because no one thinks that it is possible to win at it long term. Just keep moving around enough, and that too helps.

But there are a couple of casinos talking about reigning in the "concessions" based on that I am a lifetime winner.

Every now and then I switch to playing nothing but Blackjack for a few weeks, and that throws them off too.
Of course with Blackjack everyone playing with an Advantage is doing the same thing, so they are looking for just one angle. Which helps me too.

If you're getting hard 12s and 13s all night, doesn't matter what the Blackjack count is. You'll probably lose.

Similarly, if you walk into a 20 Bank run, you don't need any advantage to win. Just the discipline to get up and leave after the run.

In Baccarat, my advantage is key, when it matters the most, not when it matters the least.

Quote: SOOPOO

if, let’s say, your advantage is ‘I know the first player card is a 9’ with a pretty big advantage betting on player, if you’ve been betting $200 and now all of a sudden you bet $10k does that bring you heat?
link to original post

That brings up a good question. If I know the first card coming out the gate will be an 8 or 9, which goes to Player, and I am in the middle of a Bank run, say number 7 and I have pressed all along the way to say 12000, having started at say 2000, am I now going to
-drop the bet but still bet Bank
-bet Player (if so, how much?)
-bet 15000 on Bank

What would you do?

Keep in mind that solely knowing the next card isn't enough. But let's say that is ALL you know, and nothing about the relative composition of the cards that have been burned so far, or might be coming.

So, discounting shuffle tracking, or anything else along those lines, or counting down the deck, you know the next card out the gate will be an 8 or 9....

Quote: MDawg

Quote: SOOPOO

if, let’s say, your advantage is ‘I know the first player card is a 9’ with a pretty big advantage betting on player, if you’ve been betting $200 and now all of a sudden you bet $10k does that bring you heat?
link to original post

That brings up a good question. If I know the first card coming out the gate will be an 8 or 9, which goes to Player, and I am in the middle of a Bank run, say number 7 and I have pressed all along the way to say 12000, having started at say 2000, am I now going to
-drop the bet but still bet Bank
-bet Player (if so, how much?)
-bet 15000 on Bank

What would you do?

Keep in mind that solely knowing the next card isn't enough. But let's say that is ALL you know, and nothing about the relative composition of the cards that have been burned so far, or might be coming.

So, discounting shuffle tracking, or anything else along those lines, or counting down the deck, you know the next card out the gate will be an 8 or 9....
link to original post

I would bet whatever my bankroll could tolerate. If you 100% knew your first card is a 9, or even an 8, you must be at an advantage of over 10%. Someone else will tell you the exact %. I just know it’s significant. You will lose many of these bets, but win many, many more.
The ‘streak’ that you mention is irrelevant.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MDawg

Circa does have a nice high energy vibe. And their tables are always good for a small touch, if you know what you are doing.
link to original post

Thanks for the photos of the tables.
Mdawg a question please.

If you were SITTING in the CENTER SEAT of any of those tables could you view the cards in play at either the table on your left or the table on the right?

In other words, if you were a card counter, could you count two tables simultaneously?
link to original post

I actually don't play out there at Circa, but in high limit there is a double deck at the end of the oval, with a six deck shoe next to it, set up like this.


The layout has changed, there are no longer Baccarat tables up against the far wall, there are two of them side by side next to the table I marked "Baccarat," but the Double Deck and Shoe Blackjack games are set up the same, with approximately that distance between them.

I have played that Double Deck table and while playing it, if I am the only player, which I would normally be and ask the table to be reserved for me, and I am seated on the seat closest to the shoe table, if the other player were all the way to the left, I could see what was going on, but, even with very sharp eyes which I have perfect vision, still, on some cards I'd be able to figure the value from the dots but not necessarily see them perfectly. Also, I'd have to keep turning to the right to look over my shoulder.

And then, if I were sitting in the middle of the DD table, I would not have to turn my head so much as my eyes, but I would be farther away and if the player were seated all the way to the left, he might block my view some.

None of this discussion matters if the casino in question does not allow mid shoe entry.

I suppose I would look as much to the person saying this as to the claimed act. If the person claiming this were someone with inconsistent stories who had lied constantly on the forums, I'd discount whatever that person had to say, and assume was just talking about something read about in books. There are probably different people making claims, again, I'd look to the person.

At a different casino, Palms, in high limit if I stand up at the Baccarat table and look to the right at the double deck,


and again the layout has changed this is the old high limit room, but I have marked where the Bacc is and a double deck table is, if I stand up at the Bacc table I can see the cards running next door at Blackjack, but still on some cards I'll have to calculate based on the dots won't be able to see the numbers easily.

I actually did that the other day and was going to jump in for some hands, but didn't bother.

Much easier, as mentioned by SeedValue, is to just stand behind the table and count and then jump in. I have done that before just stand there counting and then jumped in with a single table limit bet, which actually ended up being a double down, and won. But again, no mid shoe entry, and none of that counting from a distance matters.

You see the thing about that "jumping in with one bet" deal, is that some casinos welcome the shot takers who drift in and take a shot, and unless they see a pattern where the same person always takes a shot at the exact same time, that person could get away with it almost indefinitely. Plus he's not going to win every time anyway.
link to original post

Using a partner to back-count is what I was talking about. Just standing behind a table then jumping in will bring attention at many shops. Using a partner, understanding optimal departure theory and utilizing a small spread say 1-3 is the nuts. You can go virtually unnoticed in most places doing this. But hey what do I know I’m just a free play scammer lol.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: SOOPOO

if, let’s say, your advantage is ‘I know the first player card is a 9’ with a pretty big advantage betting on player, if you’ve been betting $200 and now all of a sudden you bet $10k does that bring you heat?
link to original post

That brings up a good question. If I know the first card coming out the gate will be an 8 or 9, which goes to Player, and I am in the middle of a Bank run, say number 7 and I have pressed all along the way to say 12000, having started at say 2000, am I now going to
-drop the bet but still bet Bank
-bet Player (if so, how much?)
-bet 15000 on Bank

What would you do?
link to original post

In that situation, if I knew that in the next hand the Player would be guaranteed an 8 or 9 for the first card, I would bet Player, probably $12,000 at least. I guess someone can correct the math if I've learned this incorrectly, but I think if one of your cards is an 8 or 9, the odds of your having a total of 7 or higher is almost 50%, and the odds of having a Natural are almost 40%.

It's a good question anyway, and the flip side of that would be what you would do if you had just won on Bank #7 of a run and had pressed all the way from 2000 to 12000, and had NO special information one way or another of the next card.
-drop the bet but still bet Bank
-bet Player (if so, how much?)
-bet 15000 on Bank

or just Free Hand it?

You've already cleaned up, a vast sum, on the Bank run, what are you going to do now?

It somewhat comes back to the question of why someone like me who has held BTC for so many years didn't sell when it was at 65K. Well, if I didn't sell when BTC got to 200, or 1000, why would I then sell when it got to 20K, or 30K, or 60K? Having held that long to begin with, why not just keep hodling? I actually do have a figure in mind - 100K, but otherwise, if I were just into getting excited when my value went up massively I would have sold all my BTC long ago.

Similarly, having already made bank on the Bank run, do you stop pressing, or just keep going? If you hadn't pressed in the first place you'd not have nothing anyway.

Just another hypothetical Baccarat situation to ponder, is all.

Quote: MDawg

It's a good question anyway, and the flip side of that would be what you would do if you had just won on Bank #7 of a run and had pressed all the way from 2000 to 12000, and had NO special information one way or another of the next card.
-drop the bet but still bet Bank
-bet Player (if so, how much?)
-bet 15000 on Bank

or just Free Hand it?

You've already cleaned up, a vast sum, on the Bank run, what are you going to do now?

Keep betting Bank until the streak ends. Probably not press too much more, if at all. Maybe hold at $12k? Maybe even drop back down to my base unit bet, and start re-pressing if the streak continues....

link to original post

Absent any advantage, it seems that easing off on the gas on a Baccarat run more often than not turns out to be to your detriment. Not scientific, but, just my experience.

By detriment I don't mean that you lose - because obviously locking in profits can't result in losing, but trying to second guess the next hand on a run, versus just pressing time and a half all the way through, seems to not work to your favor more often than not.

Quote: TigerWu

[
In that situation, if I knew that in the next hand the Player would be guaranteed an 8 or 9 for the first card, I would bet Player, probably $12,000 at least. I guess someone can correct the math if I've learned this incorrectly, but I think if one of your cards is an 8 or 9, the odds of your having a total of 7 or higher is almost 50%, and the odds of having a Natural are almost 40%.
link to original post

If first card is 8 I get 5/13 chance of natural and 31/169 chance of total over 6

Day 11 play.

Baccarat.

One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8, with a face card, so that was good. However, Bank received a 9, luckily matched with a 5, so that was that, Player win with a Natural 8.

Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.

+13200

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

As far as trying to win big or small per day - when I go out to "work" I think to myself, Maan should I really just keep it at just a few K or five K or whatever? What if today is the day they "get me" and a week of three Ks are eaten up at once? shouldn't I build a better cushion against that possibility?

And it does take discipline to win a relatively small amount quickly and then just walk away. But all those smaller sums do add up.

Coincidentally, I ran into one of the local "3K a day" players I know, who said was still going strong. I mentioned that I have a hard time accepting a 3K win, and for me, minimum 5K is more like it, and said, Well, you definitely have the bankroll, so for you, 5K or more might be it.

Let's hope anyway!

It is definitely easier to win less than to win more.