The Adventures of MDawg

Quote: SOOPOO

. We will have to agree to disagree! This thread IS the Adventures of MDawg! I think it would be healthier for YOU to not participate here. You, me, Axel, PG, etc... have made our case. Offered MDawg a chance to ‘prove’ that he does what he says he does. He has chosen not to. If you just read all your posts in this thread you would say ‘why is that guy posting the same thing for 100 posts in a row?’ I enjoy my convos with MD. I don’t necessarily believe every statement, but he is interesting to chat with. I can assure you if you asked me to ‘prove’ my WoV portfolio is up over a million dollars (it is!) I would say ‘nope’!

My main point is that you do not seem to ENJOY this thread! So why not stay away!?

I am very disappointed in this response SOOPOO. Basically, you are saying, "you had your say, so go away and keep quiet". I won't do that. I didn't agree to do that. I have said it isn't personal with me, that it is about the math. But you know, it is a little personal. I make a living as an AP, playing blackjack. Probably the simplest method of advantage play, but advantage play never the less. I put in the work and the risk. And sometimes I lose. And I share those times as well. Because that is the way gambling works, whether playing with an advantage or just recreationally gambling.

So I take offense when someone comes along claiming to win, win, win, defying math and logic. Even if he was doing something to be playing with an advantage, I would take offense at the winning every session, every trip nature of it. THAT just isn't how gambling works. It is in fact insulting to those of us that actually take the math and gambling, AND RISK seriously.

I have one very simple rule, The math has to work. It is a very low hurdle to get over. But if it doesn't and someone comes along peeing on my leg, telling me it is raining, I am sorry, I am not going to keep quiet.

Yes, I have had my say but as long as the claims keep coming, I will continue to challenge that which can't be or is extremely unlikely. Well, I guess Wizard can stop me. But, I don't think that unreasonable. As a matter of fact, I believe, real players, of which I count myself, and "math guys" of which I don't, have not only a right to continually challenge but a responsibility to do so.

"EVIL TRIUMPS WHEN GOOD MEN DO NOTHING". well, I don't know how "evil" fictitious claims are but it is just not right. Not when he can't get over that first, low bar hurdle of the math working.

Quote: redietz

So if I start a thread about adventures in sports betting, and I say I went 93-7 in NFL totals and 110-6 in NBA sides and I post photos of snazzy suites (probably from occasions I hung out with the girlfriend, but I won't mention that), then the MDawg stuff gets watered down some.

I could write about my 10-team parlay adventure, where I had $30,000 worth of tickets which all won and I cashed them at the counter for $24 million. But that story would be a lie. If anyone called that story a lie, such a statement would be factual, it would not be a personal insult. But if someone were to call MDawg's baccarat adventure stories a lie, it would be a personal insult. Logic tells us that MDawg's stories cannot be lies, they must be truthful.

Quote: TomG

I could write about my 10-team parlay adventure, where I had $30,000 worth of tickets which all won and I cashed them at the counter for $24 million. But that story would be a lie. If anyone called that story a lie, such a statement would be factual, it would not be a personal insult. But if someone were to call MDawg's baccarat adventure stories a lie, it would be a personal insult. Logic tells us that MDawg's stories cannot be lies, they must be truthful.

No, No no. Logic doesn't tell us the stories can't be lies. Forum rules do. LOL.

So far, we have recently learned 3 things about MDawgs betting "system".

1.) that he decides whether to bet banker / players by some sort of gut feeling
and 2.) that he alters bets based on previous outcomes (unlike AP's who bet more when they are at an advantage).
3.) that stop limits are employed, NONE of which can turn -EV into winning expectation.

So let's move this claim out of baccarat and to something like roulette.

So if someone were to come along claiming to decide whether they bet black/red by gut feeling and altering bets based on previous outcomes (which is progressive wagering), is there anyone, 1 single person among us that would believe a claim of winning nearly every session, every trip to the tune of 100's of thousands over YEARS?

ANYONE? Would there be any penalty for calling this out?

Quote: kewlj

So far, we have recently learned 3 things about MDawgs betting "system".

1.) that he decides whether to bet banker / players by some sort of gut feeling
and 2.) that he alters bets based on previous outcomes (unlike AP's who bet more when they are at an advantage).
3.) that stop limits are employed, NONE of which can turn -EV into winning expectation.

So let's move this claim out of baccarat and to something like roulette.

So if someone were to come along claiming to decide whether they bet black/red by gut feeling and altering bets based on previous outcomes (which is progressive wagering), is there anyone, 1 single person among us that would believe a claim of winning nearly every session, every trip to the tune of 100's of thousands over YEARS?

ANYONE? Would there be any penalty for calling this out?

Rule #10: Betting systems: Methods of varying bet size, based on previous wins and losses, not only can't overcome the house edge, they can't even dent it. However, if you're one of the many mathematically ignorant gamblers who think adding up negative numbers can result in a positive one, please keep your comments restricted to the betting systems sty. Betting systems may not be offered for sale anywhere on the site.

Much of this thread is a violation.

KJ, please click the youtube video I posted and go do something else you enjoy. And yes, I'm going to take my own advice.

Quote: kewlj

No, No no. Logic doesn't tell us the stories can't be lies. Forum rules do. LOL.

If MDawg's adventure stories were lies, then it would not be against forum rules to call them lies. Yet it is against forum rules to call them lies. Therefore his adventure stories cannot be lies.

Quote: TomG

I could write about my 10-team parlay adventure, where I had $30,000 worth of tickets which all won and I cashed them at the counter for $24 million. But that story would be a lie. If anyone called that story a lie, such a statement would be factual, it would not be a personal insult. But if someone were to call MDawg's baccarat adventure stories a lie, it would be a personal insult. Logic tells us that MDawg's stories cannot be lies, they must be truthful.

Man, I envy you the drink tickets.

Quote: OnceDear

I respect your right to not believe that. Suspended moderators stay green and don't seem to lose any features or powers.

A moderator has been suspended for insulting me more than once, they went red. Assuming you are not joking I would figure there are supermoderators who can suspend moderators or some other programming thing.

Quote: OnceDear

And I can see how some of us are drawn to challenge their outrageous claims.
We fools feed them, extend their vanity threads, even get suspended for their entertainment. Look. It's happening here and now!

You didn't really suspend kewlJ for that one, did you?

Yowza -- I'll go back to self suspension on principle.

I'll be starting up my own pseudo-clever site soon. I'll report when it's up and running. It'll have a few articles regarding this kind of baccarat mastery.

Quote: redietz

Quote: OnceDear

And I can see how some of us are drawn to challenge their outrageous claims.
We fools feed them, extend their vanity threads, even get suspended for their entertainment. Look. It's happening here and now!

You didn't really suspend kewlJ for that one, did you?

Yowza -- I'll go back to self suspension on principle.

I'll be starting up my own pseudo-clever site soon. I'll report when it's up and running. It'll have a few articles regarding this kind of baccarat mastery.

I've made an entry in the suspension list and asked Mike's opinion. It was a borderline decision. The suspension was triggered by This post

Good luck with your site. You get to enjoy moderating it, or not as you or your members see fit.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: redietz

Quote: OnceDear

And I can see how some of us are drawn to challenge their outrageous claims.
We fools feed them, extend their vanity threads, even get suspended for their entertainment. Look. It's happening here and now!

You didn't really suspend kewlJ for that one, did you?

Yowza -- I'll go back to self suspension on principle.

I'll be starting up my own pseudo-clever site soon. I'll report when it's up and running. It'll have a few articles regarding this kind of baccarat mastery.

I've made an entry in the suspension list and asked Mike's opinion. It was a borderline decision. The suspension was triggered by This post

Good luck with your site. You get to enjoy moderating it, or not as you or your members see fit.

I think redietz thought your suspension was for an insult, not a political post.

I hate to admit it but I saw that as political too

Quote: darkoz

I think redietz thought your suspension was for an insult, not a political post.
I hate to admit it but I saw that as political too

I suspect Redeitz saw my comment "Look. It's happening here and now!" and thought that I had suspended KJ for his preceding post in this thread. An easy mistake to make.

Quote: SOOPOO

But I have NEVER heard of a player being backed off for successful baccarat play

Why would they do that, they
think it can't be beat. I really
don't like bac, it's a silly game
with all that added drama. The
card bending, letting the player
slowly peek at the cards. Just
slows the game down with
nonsense. I prefer mini-bac
but hardly see it in Indian
casinos.

Quote: EvenBob

I suppose you could use a progression but I don't like those because the casino doesn't like them.

If by progression you mean increasing bets so that the average bet size is larger, you are 100% wrong. Casinos love people who do that. They love it so much, they will pay money to customers who do it.

Thread has been split, in deference to MDawg.
For squabbling about discussion of EvenBob's implausible claims, nip over to...
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/35611-can-baccarat-be-beaten

I'll rename that thread on request.
sadly a couple of posts did not migrate.

Quote: TomG

If by progression you mean increasing bets so that the average bet size is larger, you are 100% wrong. Casinos love people who do that.

If they're losing. Which they usually
are. If you have an edge a progression
is just throwing salt on the wound
for the casino.

Wrong thread EB.
Sorry two other posts never made it to that thread, but please take it and keep it there
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/287/#post794179

Quote: OnceDear

I'll rename that thread on request.

I don't want my name in the
title. Call it 'Can Baccarat Be Beaten'

Quote: EvenBob

If they're losing. Which they usually are. If you have an edge a progression is just throwing salt on the wound for the casino.

Yet even when players have an edge in baccarat or roulette, the casino still loves it when players do it. Which means when you said "the casino doesn't like them" you were 100% wrong.

Quote: TomG

Yet even when players have an edge in baccarat or roulette, the casino still loves it when players do it.

Maybe on the planet you come
from. I remember years ago I
was using a D'alem and was
winning and winning and a
pit creature demanded to
see the card I was writing on.
He even took it and showed
it to another pit jerk. Later
he came out and stood right
behind me to my left, and
just stood there. I finally left,
they really loved me winning
that day with a progression.

Quote: EvenBob

Maybe on the planet you come from. I remember years ago I was using a D'alem and was winning and winning and a pit creature demanded to see the card I was writing on. He even took it and showed it to another pit jerk. Later he came out and stood right behind me to my left, and just stood there. I finally left, they really loved me winning that day with a progression.

That's just bad customer service from an employee. Like saying one time I went to McDonald's and they treated me badly, therefore McDonald's doesn't like it when people buy lunch at their restaurant.

Since you said before, "If you have an edge", would you be able to describe the edge you had over the casino during this game?

TomG, Evenbob, Please take it to the new thread "Can Baccarat Be Beaten'

Sorry i can't move these last few posts

Quote: OnceDear

TomG, Evenbob, Please take it to the new thread "Can Baccarat Be Beaten'

Sorry i can't move these last few posts

Why do you even care where its at? Why was it split off in the first place? Did someone send emails or texts asking for it to be? This entire thread should be dumped off in with the betting systems thread under the fiction section.

Quote: AxelWolf

Why do you even care where its at? Why was it split off in the first place? Did someone send emails or texts asking for it to be? This entire thread should be dumped off in with the betting systems thread under the fiction section

Because this is the MDawg thread. The new thread is the EvenBob thread, or at least it was until it became the beating baccarat thread. MDawg has a variety of topics.... baccarat. Bitcoin. Blackjack. Stocks. Watches. Comps. .... that we talk about here. I think if we are solely talking the ease of beating baccarat a new thread is worthwhile.

When MDawg is back from his unearned suspension he can have his thread back. Good job , OnceDear!

Quote: SOOPOO

Because this is the MDawg thread.

I cant believe you are under the impression this is his thread anymore. He made me the star of this thread long ago. He only excises because I allow it, and I need some entertainment.

I spoke a couple days ago at length to my old friend who is an independent host in Vegas. He wants to handle my action at a couple of properties I have not played at before.

Anyway, I recall someone on here at WOV challenging me when I mentioned the % that a Vegas casino comps based on theoretical loss. My friend, who has been in the business as a host for over twenty years, and as an independent for some ten years now, confirmed that:
-casinos comp 30 to even up to 40% of theoretical loss.
-casinos are set to comp only 10% of actual loss, although they will comp up to 15%.

We discussed how I was recently in Vegas at a major property and stayed a month in the same large suite just at that one property alone, fully RFB comp'ed, and he said that based on my theoretical of about 80K for that leg of our trip, that the comps were right in line. He mentioned how if I had been at that casino and blown out my whole line the first few days and stopped playing, that there was no way they would have comp'ed me that long.

Bottom line, a winning playing building up a high theo will almost always get comp'ed more than a losing player.

He did say, interestingly, that one of the major casinos we stayed at last trip still has on the books a general rule that they will comp a maximum of only 10% of a player's line no matter what, but that no one has ever or does ever follow this rule. Obviously.

Quote: MDawg

I spoke a couple days ago at length to my old friend who is an independent host in Vegas. He wants to handle my action at a couple of properties I have not played at before.

Anyway, I recall someone on here at WOV challenging me when I mentioned the % that a Vegas casino comps based on theoretical loss. My friend, who has been in the business as a host for over twenty years, and as an independent for some ten years now, confirmed that:
-casinos comp 30 to even up to 40% of theoretical loss.
-casinos are set to comp only 10% of actual loss, although they will comp up to 15%.

We discussed how I was recently in Vegas at a major property and stayed a month in the same large suite just at that one property alone, fully RFB comp'ed, and he said that based on my theoretical of about 80K for that leg of our trip, that the comps were right in line. He mentioned how if I had been at that casino and blown out my whole line the first few days and stopped playing, that there was no way they would have comp'ed me that long.

Bottom line, a winning playing building up a high theo will almost always get comp'ed more than a losing player.

He did say, interestingly, that one of the major casinos we stayed at last trip still has on the books a general rule that they will comp a maximum of only 10% of a player's line no matter what, but that no one has ever or does ever follow this rule. Obviously.

It's a good thing there are hosts like that in the gambling world.

Comp AP's would have a lot harder time beating them if they actually knew what they were talking about

Quote: MDawg

That was the dinner your host comped?

I’m gonna take a wild guess and say Caesars are those stiffs that only want to comp you 10%!

In any case, on the books or not, that rule is luckily for us not enforced.

And 30% of theo is what they give, up to 40% of theo at some casinos.

If you think about it, trying to minimize the comps of a credit line player to 10% of his line doesn't make a lot of sense anyway. They have no way of knowing if a credit line player won't just pay off his line immediately in the event of a loss and keep playing. That's exactly what I did here (and to a certain extent, also here), and as far as the first casino was concerned, I had just played to well over my line. I came back during the course of the trip to beat the h. out of them and wind up ahead all the way around, but still, I gave them the action by way of a theoretical loss.

Will be there again soon!

The fully vaccinated Dawg (or as Terapined likes to call him, Dog) will be back in Vegas shortly. Another lengthy trip is anticipated. There are a couple of tournaments, drawings and some free play chips too.

Most of the Trip Report details will be posted with time delay at the TruePassage forum, but I'll post sum results here, and then probably come back and post an over all summary at some point.

These are for MDawg to put up next to his vitamins and supplements in the suites.

Nothing like the power of positive psychology.

Nice to see you back!

P.S. BE GOOD!

This was an outrageous daylight robbery
Woman shot during robbery at famed Beverly Hills restaurant Il Pastaio
at a café we’ve both eaten at and had espresso at many times.

Not the first time a Richard Mille has been stolen or robbed off someone.
A Parisian Thief Stole This $830,000 Richard Mille Watch Right Off the Wearer’s Wrist

Rafael Nadal's $525k Richard Mille RM027 Watch Stolen Again!

What concerned me about the crime was the way the jeweler who was wearing the watch fought back, grabbed the gun from the assailant, and started firing wildly, such that his ricocheting bullet struck an innocent bystander in the leg.

It could have been much worse, but that this dumb jeweler would have placed his own life and the life of others in danger, over a watch, is ridiculous. If someone pulled a gun on me while I was wearing one of my expensive timepieces, I would just hand it over. All my pieces are insured anyway on a special rider that adds on to my homeowner's insurance and covers the watches whether on me or at the bank safety deposit box which is where I keep them most of time or wherever, which brings me to – part of why this guy fought back, I assume, is that he was wearing a watch from his store, marked for sale, and that it was insured only for theft while at his store. Why else would he risk his neck other than that the watch wasn’t insured, and perhaps he shouldn’t have even been wearing the thing outside of his store at all.

And now, I wonder if he will be charged criminally for firing wildly in the crowd, or sued civilly for striking the woman.
I mean, yes, the guy gave some statement
Beverly Hills police beefing up patrols after brazen robbery of man’s $500,000 watch
that he was “fighting for his life not the watch,” but that’s just trying to cover his liability. Obviously the guy was fighting to protect something that was important to him that he felt he could not afford to lose.

There was this jeweler in southern California who was constantly pulling out a gun and firing blindly at anyone who tried to rob his store. You’d think that the robbers would have read about his antics and avoided him, but he was targeted more than once. Finally the police had to charge him with reckless discharge of a firearm after he had hit potted plants and such outside his store after more than one robbery attempt, and then take steps to relieve him of the right to carry a firearm. No one has the right to use deadly force to protect against the theft of mere property.

A different case, from Las Vegas:
Las Vegas Pawn shop owner faces charges in fatal shooting
That guy eventually pled guilty to some low level manslaughter, but still, he didn’t have a right to start shooting up the place and hit the guy in the back when the robber was already out the door.

One great thing about Vegas is that it is one place where you may wear high end watches or jewelry safely – at least as long as you remain in the casino and keep your property locked in the hotel safe deposit boxes or front desk hotel safe.

(Don’t lock anything in this sort of safe in Vegas though.
‘Mr. Elliot’ [no relation to Teliot] promised clients his private Vegas vault was safe. He was wrong.)

Quote: MDawg

The fully vaccinated Dawg (or as Terapined likes to call him, Dog) will be back in Vegas shortly. Another lengthy trip is anticipated.

This seems like the time to renew calls for that "meetup" with Wizard to watch and verify your play. The meetup that Wizard himself called for late last year. If you are legit and have nothing to hide this shouldn't be an issue right?

Quote: MDawg

This was an outrageous daylight robbery
Woman shot during robbery at famed Beverly Hills restaurant Il Pastaio
at a café we’ve both eaten at and had espresso at many times.

Yawn
I was wandering around there as it happened
Got video
Guess what.
My Mom was not with me :-)
I'm so sick of LA
Too many cars
I cant wait to move to Bakersfield in a couple of days

If you would like to place a monetary wager on proving yourself right (whatever it is that you are trying to say) I am prepared to hear it. Otherwise, it's just more of the same. Talk.

Absent talk, there is a $250,000. and a $500,000. challenge on the table.

If I ever gave the impression otherwise, I am not interested in meeting anyone other than pursuant to a wager, and primarily I am interested in wagers with those who question my veracity. It's hard enough to win in Vegas without wasting time meeting curiosity seekers for free.

I am willing to wager serious money that everything I state is true. There are two wagers on the table open for this month.

Quote: MDawg

I am willing to wager serious money that everything I state is true. There are two wagers on the table open for this month.

Yawn
This has Clifford Irving on 60 min all over this thread
Clifford didn't need his Mom

Quote: MDawg

If I ever gave the impression otherwise, I am not interested in meeting anyone other than pursuant to a wager

I feel bad for you. Really. I like meeting people of different backgrounds, different ages, different ...everything.... because to me it adds to my enjoyment of life. I can't even imagine needing a monetary incentive...... Of all the things you have written on this forum that is the one that makes me truly feel bad for you.

Are you talking about internet people? Or just people in general.

You think I'd want to meet anonymous internet people with sour jealous bitter attitudes for no reason? For all I know robbers and thieves are present, why else would they be so concerned with laying down the childish insults.

Quote: MDawg

Are you talking about internet people? Or just people in general.

You think I'd want to meet anonymous internet people with sour jealous bitter attitudes for no reason? For all I know robbers and thieves are present, why else would they be so concerned with laying down the childish insults.

You left out Conmen.

Quote: MDawg

If I ever gave the impression otherwise, I am not interested in meeting anyone other than pursuant to a wager, and primarily I am interested in wagers with those who question my veracity. It's hard enough to win in Vegas without wasting time meeting curiosity seekers for free.

I am willing to wager serious money that everything I state is true. There are two wagers on the table open for this month.

The administrator of this forum, and highly respected math expert said it was time for you to put up or shut up about you "highly improbably claims". Why is that an issue for you? It should be a chance to prove what you say and claim. Instead you refuse and attempt to tie it to some ridiculous wager that you know won't happen.

Beside the almost certain probability that such a meetup would expose you as not betting what you claim and winning as you claim, there is a strong possibility that you want to avoid such a meeting because it would reveal that you are in fact a previously banned member.

A meetup with Mike, would be no threat to your safety or privacy, but could clear up all these other issues AND provide you with credibility for your claims. There is no reasonable reason why you would continue to reject that.

One thing is for sure, is that once you get started you will keep repeating yourself ad infinitum! long after there is anyone left in the room to listen.

Quote: MDawg

Are you talking about internet people? Or just people in general.

You think I'd want to meet anonymous internet people with sour jealous bitter attitudes for no reason? For all I know robbers and thieves are present, why else would they be so concerned with laying down the childish insults.

I'm not letting you get away with that! You came to a gambling website. You have caught the attention of the Wizard, who is a 'celebrity' in the field of gambling. He has made it known he would meet with you. If you said you didn't want to meet Axel or terapined (or me!) I could easily understand that. But the Wizard? Most people who join this website would love a meetup with the Wiz. .........

MDawg should keep his bets on the baccarat tables and not with potential other members of the forum.

Speaking of which, didn't you imply that the best/easiest way to win 200K is via Baccarat? That's actually true, at least to the extent that it happens all the time. How often do players win 200K at blackjack?

Blackjack is a cursed game. Casinos hate winners on the Blackjack tables. They kick out red chippers for being a hundred dollars up. Casino management has serious problems.

My experience too. Never had a problem with Baccarat - win all you like, they might watch closely but no one comes out of the woodwork to shut you down.