Thread Rating:

DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 8267
Thanks for this post from:
MDawg
January 1st, 2020 at 3:01:09 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Come on guys, I am not posting about which direction I wiped my a** this morning, or how many times I am having sex each day, whatever I post here has to do with my trip report i.e. gambling,



Wow, if you are having sex multiple times a day you must be younger than I imagined. At my age multiple times a week is impressive.
Order from chaos
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
January 1st, 2020 at 4:02:36 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater



it is possible and highly likely that you are ahead lifetime .



Would you say itís highly likely that everyone who plays baccarat is ahead lifetime? Or just the ones who bet big ?

If I pointed out to you a group of people who all play a negative expectation game, how would you go about pointing out to me the ones that are highly likely to be ahead, as opposed to the ones who are highly like to be down ?

Why is the casino offering games that anyone is ďhighly likelyĒ to be ahead in ?
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Thanks for this post from:
MDawg
January 1st, 2020 at 5:38:51 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Would you say itís highly likely that everyone who plays baccarat is ahead lifetime? Or just the ones who bet big ?

If I pointed out to you a group of people who all play a negative expectation game, how would you go about pointing out to me the ones that are highly likely to be ahead, as opposed to the ones who are highly like to be down ?

Why is the casino offering games that anyone is ďhighly likelyĒ to be ahead in ?



It's highly likely in this case because it is being claimed with decent evidence and the underlying conditional probability of a single high-roller being ahead lifetime in baccarat is not that low to override those claims and evidence.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
Thanks for this post from:
Boz
January 1st, 2020 at 5:54:44 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

It's highly likely in this case because it is being claimed with decent evidence and the underlying conditional probability of a single high-roller being ahead lifetime in baccarat is not that low to override those claims and evidence.




We have different definitions of decent evidence.

If I post pictures of the suites I stayed in, along with my jewelry , etc , and then I said Iím a consistent lifetime winner at Let It Ride, would you say itís highly likely itís true ?

There are tons of wealthy people in the world. Having money or any of the things he posts pics of is not remarkable or impressive at all.

Beating baccarat is.

They are 2 completely different accomplishments, and are worlds apart in terms of their possibility of being true.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearMDawgmichael99000
January 1st, 2020 at 6:25:16 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

We have different definitions of decent evidence.

If I post pictures of the suites I stayed in, along with my jewelry , etc , and then I said Iím a consistent lifetime winner at Let It Ride, would you say itís highly likely itís true ?

There are tons of wealthy people in the world. Having money or any of the things he posts pics of is not remarkable or impressive at all.

Beating baccarat is.

They are 2 completely different accomplishments, and are worlds apart in terms of their possibility of being true.



This is what gets me about this guy.

Almost all of us understand how and why casinos are built and how they make their money. Every now and then they make a major misstep like Don Johnson on the math end. But they learn from it.

Itís obvious he has money to risk and the casinos are treating him well. I donít believe anyone here is questioning his assets.

But those of us who believe in math and gambling understand he isnít winning trip after trip. He has no system that can be proven and it makes zero sense he wins trip after trip and keeps getting invited back.

Itís BS and Iím not sure why he continues to push that end of his story.

But huge congratulations for making good money in whatever business you are in. Hard work pays off again.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1078
Thanks for this post from:
DeMangoMDawg
January 1st, 2020 at 7:16:01 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Quote: jjjoooggg

Quote: MDawg

Answering the canned food question, yes I like canned fish. As far as the tuna variety for a while we were getting this expensive as hell line caught tuna in the can, but eventually I realized that it was dry and didn't even taste as good as the standard supermarket Albacore in water. The Maine lobster they sell in the cans in supermarkets is costly, but quite good.


Haven't played yet, might not play tonight, will see.

Ate lunch, went to gym, then walked across the street to pick up our New Year's Eve party tickets for that party, which just as I walked into the casino my host texted me that he was at the host station and had my tickets, so that saved a trip to one of the ballrooms where they were being distributed.

The Strip wasn't closed off yet, and wasn't closed off as I walked back either.

Once across the street, checked into the room (the one night stay in the standard 750 S/F Encore Tower Suite that we will not be staying in), picked up the tickets, stopped by VIP to wish Happy New Year to the attendants whom I know pretty well I consider them like buddies, have even bought and delivered food to them whenever we were getting outside food for ourselves, grabbed a couple of mango drinks, and headed into the room.

Actually don't think it matters but I messed up the bed, threw some towels on the bathroom floor and draped a robe over a chair.




The view from this room is nice, but the glass seems spotty probably due to last week's rains here.

Or maybe it was just light reflecting off the glass.

The crowd at Wynn/Encore is definitely far more upscale than across the street where we are staying. Actually we haven't stayed here at Treasure Island in some time, but as I mentioned, this casino is throwing us pretty much their largest suite while across the street they gave us just a standard "suite" during this impacted New Year's week. So, I suppose that over here, we are viewed as a very big fish in that the pond is smaller.

Over there at Wynn/Encore everyone is more dressed up and the girls, if they are hot, try to look not just hot, but rich. 😃 Here at TI, it's like, Hello, how are you, I'm here to have fun in Vegas for New Year's; over there no one wants to look other than as if he or she has already arrived and knows the score. I mean at Wynn/Encore, if you're not Drake, you want to look like you could care less who Drake is, is the impression people seem to want to give.

It's actually going to be a bit of a chore to attend both parties, but I think we will attempt it - have dinner at the party over here first then head over there for a second dinner (I'll eat again, she won't, she's a very light eater), and then maybe return here just before midnight for the fireworks. My host over there went over the timeline with me and said "I'll see you at the party" (ulp, I guess that means we should at least show our faces). Only way to do it, to attend both events, will be by walking and while not far, I won't be the one in heels. We shall see.

I got this new razor

it is rechargeable and actually heats up a strip within the five-blade cartridge. I have used Art of Shaving stuff for years but not this new razor. I was actually going to say that I am almost more looking forward to shaving with this new device than attending the NY's parties when she walked in looking fabulouso, they did her hair and makeup in the salon downstairs. WOW. She blows away any girl I saw walking around anywhere tonight.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!



You have a great life.


Didnít you see the sign donít feed the ego/animals?



Very few can do this. He ought to have an ego. LOL.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearForager
January 1st, 2020 at 8:03:37 PM permalink
Quote: Boz



Itís BS and Iím not sure why he continues to push that end of his story.



Some people , who have had success in certain aspects of their life , have trouble admitting that theres anything they try that doesnít go extremely well.

All the comps and suites and shows donít seem as awesome if you have to come to grips with the fact that you really did pay for them.

And if anyone believes that the casinos truck this guy in and wine and dine him just so he can clean out the bac table chip rack over and over and over , get a clue.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Thanks for this post from:
DeMangoMDawgjjjoooggg
January 1st, 2020 at 9:54:24 PM permalink
Why is it so hard to believe that of all the people playing negative games, one given player might be ahead just by rungood? In fact it is a mathematical certainty someone will.

So what if he believes his success is caused by obviously nonsensical methods? I don't think anyone is actually arguing that you can beat baccarat via money management, streaks, quitting when ahead or whatever.

I view this thread as a series of trip reports by a big-money gambler who is playing a negative game with a low house edge -- and is running good enough to be ahead while getting the high-roller comp experience. That's a great thing.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 3873
January 1st, 2020 at 10:24:42 PM permalink
Responding to Michael99000:
As TigerWu would say, actually already said,

waah waah waah.

I don't believe Michael99000 understands the comp system; at minimum he seems to have no advanced grasp on how to work it. Another thing that is weak is how he posts, "I believe this, so you should too." If I'm solid in my conviction I just say what I believe, I don't need anyone to believe it too. ("Believe it or don't!" 😎) All this tells me that he posts on theory, theories such as "no one wins at gambling" or "no one gets comp'ed who wins," not empiricism. Then there is this incessant petty "MDawg bashing" that was old months ago, and is long decayed and dead today.

What Michael99000 reminds me of is an INSURANCE COMPANY that LOSES a lawsuit I file. At the end of the day, I have some "before" evidence and the sworn testimony of my client, and all they have is speculation, forensics reports that don't necessarily apply to the situation at hand except in theory (the equivalent of his "it must be this way, because I think it's always this way") and waah waah waah. I'd wipe Michael99000 all over the floor in court the same way I do anyone I sue.

Let him believe what he wants: there is no percentage in saying anything to someone like him who has made up his mind. If he wants to show up in Vegas with fifty grand and play side by side with me for two weeks straight let's see which of us walks ahead and which goes home a loser. Until that day comes, his statistics are noted, but are gainsaid by the positive reality of my situation.


The sex thing: For me, it's gotta be twice a day. For her, she's fine with once. Another thing I like about Vegas trips is that I can say something like, Come on babe, you know I gotta be loose before I go down there, and she'll laugh and there we go. So sometimes I get my twice daily easier on trips than at home. Before someone calls TMI - the relevance to gambling: I'm not saying that you're more likely to win if you've just had sex. What I am saying tho, is that if you're running out the door to gamble passing up food or sex that might mean that you're too anxious to play, in which case your judgment might be off.

I played a fairly long session today, double deck stand 17, won some, not much - the total for the trip is pushing two grand, which was not bad considering I was down some at several points during today's session. I've played only three days so far; did not play at all two days. (I decided I am going to email something to my host about how this fog horn sound is keeping me from getting good sleep and is part of the reason why I haven't played that much. When I was in VIP today the girl there told me that there have been other complaints - "you're not the only one.")
At the end of today's session I was just going to walk with the chips after coloring up and hold them all until tomorrow, but the pit boss asked if I wanted to pay off my marker so I said Yeah, and did, then cashed the winning chips.

When I pulled in a different pit boss came up and asked me if I was trying to look cool, 'cause I was wearing these shaded Chrome Hearts. I had the lenses specially made they start darker at the top almost clear towards the bottom, the pic might not show that so clearly but that's the way the lenses are tinted.

Actually the story on these is, and I relayed it to this pit boss, that there is a certain pit boss at Cosmopolitan that told me, "You know ____, it's OKAY to tint your glasses just a LITTLE darker," after he saw me wearing a pair of Gold n Woods that had a very slight gray tint in them. He himself was wearing some pretty dark shades. So based on his suggestion, I had these Chrome Hearts darkened.

"Well, it's working. You ARE looking cool." this pit boss at TI said after he heard the story.

We shook hands, I gave him the double handed Chauncey Gardiner ("Being There") presidential clasp. "Happy New Year!"


There was a guy who also won at my same BJ table. He won only about a hundred or two hundred and stopped. He said that he was going to take a break to go watch the Baccarat table for a while, which is right next door. It was crowded with a group of Asians who all seemed to know each other, and they were doing pretty well, a lot of shouting and cheering.

"So, you just stand there and put down a bet occasionally?"

"No. I just watch. I just like to watch, especially when there's a group like this shouting and getting lively."

"Well they're doing pretty well, the shoe looks pretty good to me."

"What's the difference between a good shoe and a bad shoe, it's just a fifty fifty game isn't it?"

I could tell I was dealing with a non-believer.

"Well, there are shoes when it runs - in streaks." I made up and down sweeping motions with my hand. "I've won a lot at Baccarat."

He just sort of shrugged and went over to watch.

"I'll be back."

Before he left he did say something about how he was a "hit and run gambler" so he does believe in that, but not in the Baccarat.


I'm probably not going to play Bacc. here until/unless they open more than one table, so that I may switch back and forth if one shoe is bad. Anyway, I'm doing fine with the BJ and it brings back a lot of good memories even though I'm playing relatively small with it at the moment.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jan 2, 2020
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 6143
January 2nd, 2020 at 12:19:06 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Responding to Michael99000:



Thanks for the update MDawg. An amusing read, if nothing else.
Just be conscious that your opening paragraphs read like an attack on the person rather than a comment on what he posts.
Maybe goad him into a wager with you, but don't troll him. We've already had some reminders not to stray outside any rules.
No need for you to make personal attacks when your remarkable success speaks for you to those or believe it or not.
Be cool. Be lucky, but please be nice.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

  • Jump to: