My sports bet tracking
Quote: es330tdI just realized I forgot to post this after several days off..,
Last Result: -2.87
Running Balance: 1.95
Balance: 35.87
Sport: NBA
Game: Memphis @ Phoenix 12/11/19
Pick: Suns-299
Wager: 6.49
Holy crap. Chasing losses hard. $6.49 wager.
ZCore13
not that hard.Quote: Zcore13Holy crap. Chasing losses hard. $6.49 wager.
$3.93 LOST in last two wagers
trying to win just $2.17 this wager
End 3rd quarter
Memphis: 84
Phoenix: 79
Quote: 7crapsnot that hard.
$3.93 LOST in last two wagers
trying to win just $2.17 this wager
End 3rd quarter
Memphis: 84
Phoenix: 79
It's over 2x his max bet ever. He's never even wagered $3.00 on a game, much less $4.00, $5.00 or $6.00. It's a huge chase.
ZCore13
Ravens moneyline -1200,
risking $29.38 to win $2.44
It’s time for this chase to go JoelDeze all-in style
I thought it was UGLY from the start. the math said it was.Quote: es330tdThis just got ugly.
LOLQuote: es330tdWe’ll see how committed I am after three straight losses.
You said you personally searched 1 million data points (maybe) and I think the data was NOT yours, it was just made up stuff or something like that. False unproven data. Great stuff.
your system
is one of the 'chase loss' ones that NEVER can win over any 5 year Period (or less)
15! (1 307 674 368 000)
this is the number of chase systems already proven "have NO +ev"
have NO +EV
I get it
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-281 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -281 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
| 11/23/2019 | NBA | Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19 | Raptors-297 | 33 | $1.14 | $41.68 | -297 | Win | $0.38 | $5.11 | $38.65 | 2.950% | $39.03 |
| 11/27/2019 | NBA | LA @ New Orleans | Lakers-258 | 34 | $0.98 | $42.66 | -258 | Win | $0.37 | $5.48 | $39.03 | 2.511% | $39.40 |
| 11/29/2019 | NBA | Utah & Memphis | Utah-290 | 35 | $1.16 | $43.82 | -290 | Win | $0.40 | $5.88 | $39.40 | 2.944% | $39.80 |
| 12/1/2019 | NBA | Dallas @ LA 12/1/19 | Lakers-265 | 36 | $1.06 | $44.88 | -265 | Loss | ($1.06) | $4.82 | $39.80 | 2.663% | $38.74 |
| 12/5/2019 | NBA | Philadelphia @ Washington | 76ers-295 | 37 | $2.87 | $47.75 | -295 | Loss | ($2.87) | $1.95 | $38.74 | 7.408% | $35.87 |
| 12/11/2019 | NBA | Memphis @ Phoenix 12/11/19 | Suns-299 | 38 | $6.49 | $54.24 | -299 | Loss | ($6.49) | ($4.54) | $35.87 | 18.093% | $29.38 |
red columns are total after lost bets
some will never get it
But he only needs one year and then walk away a winner, easy peasy.🤣Quote: 7craps
your system
is one of the 'chase loss' ones that NEVER can win over any 5 year Period (or less)
Three bets wash out three months of winning. Ouch.
Quote: es330tdThis just got ugly. We’ll see how committed I am after three straight losses.
I thought the point of betting such small amounts meant it didn’t make sense to lose your gumption. Stick it out. See if it breaks. That’s valuable to know.
As Rob Schneider once told the Waterboy: “You can do it!”
Quote: IndyJeffreySo, to me, the bigger question is: can one win at sports wagering over the long haul?
Three bets wash out three months of winning. Ouch.
I believe it can, but it's someone with A LOT of knowledge on a single sport.
But remember... just like craps seminars and real estate wizards and stock market gurus:
Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach.
ZCore13
Quote: 7craps
red columns are total after lost bets
some will never get it
Indeedy. With these favourite betting, chase systems, the results and performance of most wagers are totally insignificant. They generally add a small percentage to the slowly growing bankroll, till BOOM A short losing streak of relatively enormous wagers dominates the outcome. The variance and standard deviation of the whole sequence of wagers is based squarely on those few massive bets. In other words, there was zero point to making all preceding small wagers.
The OP would have been just as well to propose to make ONE lifetime wager with his ENTIRE worldly wealth on ONE massively odds on favourite. Then he could gloat or slink away. I don't advocate doing that!
That said, I've enjoyed the thread. $:o)
It's possible, though unlikely, that you are making good bets. If so, this element is not needed and has a pretty good chance of wiping you out even if the bets are good.
Quote: RigondeauxWhy have this martingale/chasing component?
It's possible, though unlikely, that you are making good bets. If so, this element is not needed and has a pretty good chance of wiping you out even if the bets are good.
His record is 27-11 betting huge favorites on the moneyline. Pretty much what you’d expect someone who just randomly chose heavy ML favorites to be at.
It’s a small sample size, but the only thing that’s been proven thus far is that his game selection methods are no better or worse than a random choosing of games.
to give the user of a 'chase loss' system a sense of accomplishment.Quote: RigondeauxWhy have this martingale/chasing component?
in math words, it can change the shape of the distribution, until it does not.
maybe 1 was a good bet (+ev) all others were horribly -evQuote: RigondeauxIt's possible, though unlikely, that you are making good bets.
76ers bet was a HORRIBLe -EV bet.
even those that live in Philly knew that one.
James Holzhauer DOES not use a 'chase loss system' in his professional sports betting.
He has told a few methods he uses (all +ev)
imagine that
some get it, most do not
math is too hard to understand for most all (including myself)
Running Balance: -4.54
Balance: 35.87
Sport: NBA
Game: Portland @ Denver 12/12/19
Pick: Nuggets-253
Wager: 9.14
Quote: es330tdLast Result: -6.49
Running Balance: -4.54
Balance: 35.87
Sport: NBA
Game: Portland @ Denver 12/12/19
Pick: Nuggets-253
Wager: 9.14
Isn’t the balance down near the $29 area ?
Quote: es330tdLast Result: -6.49
Running Balance: -4.54
Balance: 35.87
Sport: NBA
Game: Portland @ Denver 12/12/19
Pick: Nuggets-253
Wager: 9.14
Is the bet sizing here what your formula spits out or did you lower it? It’s not the full chase size I was expecting.
Quote: IndyJeffreySo, to me, the bigger question is: can one win at sports wagering over the long haul?
Three bets wash out three months of winning. Ouch.
Very, very difficult, IMO.
Those who can aren’t selling their picks nor are they likely posting to anonymous Internet forums.
Vig makes it so you need to be close to 53% win rate just to break even. A pro is likely in the 56%-59% range of winning picks.
There have been a few handicappers that have made it. Far and few and they are focusing on one sport. Hard enough handicapping one sport.
Those who pick teams all over the sports map aren’t handicapping. They are guessing. Anyone can guess.
I’m sure anyone can have a winning year. Replicating it year in year out is what separates the lucky from the skilled.
Quote: TDVegasVery, very difficult, IMO.
Those who can aren’t selling their picks nor are they likely posting to anonymous Internet forums.
Vig makes it so you need to be close to 53% win rate just to break even. A pro is likely in the 56%-59% range of winning picks.
There have been a few handicappers that have made it. Far and few and they are focusing on one sport. Hard enough handicapping one sport.
Those who pick teams all over the sports map aren’t handicapping. They are guessing. Anyone can guess.
I’m sure anyone can have a winning year. Replicating it year in year out is what separates the lucky from the skilled.
Mostly incorrect. I'd say, very very few sell winning picks. The only one I know of is Right Angle, and I don't know if they even win anymore, or if they're in business for that matter. But there was a time they were selling good picks, for sure. However, that's the exception. People do post winning picks on forums still, but it's much less common than it once was.
My friend, the author of Sharper, handicaps NBA and NFL. He let me watch him work with his spread sheets and stuff the other day, which was cool. He could do more sports, but doesn't want to.
My friend Keith does NFL, MLB and NHL. The guy who really taught me the ropes bets on any sport you can think of.
Moreover, there is a lot more to sports betting than handicapping. Check out the lotto thread, for example. I guess technically that is handicapping, but it's not like they are sizing up the different lotto balls.
Someone like Jeopardy James could be using some sort of crazy math. IDK. But you don't have to do that.
I know I plug it all the time, but it's not just because he is my friend. Check out the Amazon reviews on Sharper. If you guys want to learn about sports betting, I think that's a great place to start.
Running Balance: -.95
Balance: 32.99
Sport: NBA
Game: Charlotte @ Chicago 12/13/19
Pick: Bulls-255
Wager: 7.37
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +3.61
Running Balance: -.95
Balance: 32.99
Sport: NBA
Game: Charlotte @ Chicago 12/13/19
Pick: Bulls-255
Wager: 7.37
So two full chases followed by a half-chase that wins, followed by a second half-chase. Interesting.
Quote: unJonSo two full chases followed by a half-chase that wins, followed by a second half-chase. Interesting.
I don't believe he's following his original system anymore. I've enjoyed the thread, but it seems to have jumped the shark.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13I don't believe he's following his original system anymore. I've enjoyed the thread, but it seems to have jumped the shark.
ZCore13
I asked that question when he made the first half-chase bet. He didn’t answer. I’d like to know if he lost his nerve so reduced that bet size or if that’s what his system called for.
Hard to imagine losing nerve given the absolute magnitude of the bet. But who knows.
Quote: RigondeauxMostly incorrect. I'd say, very very few sell winning picks. The only one I know of is Right Angle, and I don't know if they even win anymore, or if they're in business for that matter. But there was a time they were selling good picks, for sure. However, that's the exception. People do post winning picks on forums still, but it's much less common than it once was.
My friend, the author of Sharper, handicaps NBA and NFL. He let me watch him work with his spread sheets and stuff the other day, which was cool. He could do more sports, but doesn't want to.
My friend Keith does NFL, MLB and NHL. The guy who really taught me the ropes bets on any sport you can think of.
Moreover, there is a lot more to sports betting than handicapping. Check out the lotto thread, for example. I guess technically that is handicapping, but it's not like they are sizing up the different lotto balls.
Someone like Jeopardy James could be using some sort of crazy math. IDK. But you don't have to do that.
I know I plug it all the time, but it's not just because he is my friend. Check out the Amazon reviews on Sharper. If you guys want to learn about sports betting, I think that's a great place to start.
No winning handicapper is selling his picks. There's no reason to. Just make the wagers yourself. Why even out yourself as a winning handicapper? Rosenthal worked for the mob...so it was kept quiet. Billy Walters stupidly spoke up..which eventually got him banned from sports book and he had to use runners. I know a LOT that sell their picks. See below Dom the Dominator for example. I doubt any of them are actual handicappers even though they claim to be.
I've heard all the stories about this guy and that guy. I'm running a yearly pick 5 contest each week on the NFL on the craps forum.com site. Your "Sharper" friend is more than welcome to participate....and let's see how he does. 5 picks each week for 17 weeks. You are welcome as well. Of the 8 guys who stepped up....the win rate is 43% to 51% at top. 52.3% is break even, money wise.
Keith is also welcome. So is James Holzhauer. Proof is in the pudding....lets see it happen and not just a story or my friend told me he's doing it. 53% win rate on the spread is the break even point. Anyone doing this as his living or job would likely be in the 57%-59% win rate. I consider there might be a few out there able to achieve this year over year...but I highly doubt ANY of them are chirping to friends.
Dom the Dominator of DI fame and now, I guess, sports picking fame is running 43-50-1 with his NFL picks this season. He's also charging $150/month for those picks.
In short order....let them post their picks prior to game time each week...and let's see how they fare. Tell you what, ask your friend Sharper for his NFL picks for the next 3 weeks. Post them here before game time. I'll sync them up with the Vegas spreads...and let's see how he fares. No harm.
The entire James Holzhauer claim is also a bit suspect. No sports book refuses his action. He outed himself on national TV as a successful sports bettor...which, frankly, IMO....was stupid. He could have just said he was a house husband. The only stories I've heard out here about him from the books are "he wins some and loses some". As I said, if he was that good...they wouldn't take his action. They all do.
Quote: TDVegasNo winning handicapper is selling his picks. There's no reason to. Just make the wagers yourself. Why even out yourself as a winning handicapper? Rosenthal worked for the mob...so it was kept quiet. Billy Walters stupidly spoke up..which eventually got him banned from sports book and he had to use runners.
I've heard all the stories about this guy and that guy. I'm running a yearly pick 5 contest each week on the NFL on the craps forum.com site. Your "Sharper" friend is more than welcome to participate....and let's see how he does. 5 picks each week for 17 weeks. You are welcome as well. Of the 8 guys who stepped up....the win rate is 43% to 51% at top. 52.3% is break even, money wise.
Keith is also welcome. So is James Holzhauer. Proof is in the pudding....lets see it happen and not just a story or my friend told me he's doing it. 53% win rate on the spread is the break even point. Anyone doing this as his living or job would likely be in the 57%-59% win rate. I consider there might be a few out there able to achieve this year over year...but I highly doubt ANY of them are chirping to friends.
Dom the Dominator of DI fame and now, I guess, sports picking fame is running 43-50-1 with his NFL picks this season. He's also charging $150/month for those picks.
In short order....let them post their picks prior to game time each week...and let's see how they fare.
The entire James Holzhauer claim is also a bit suspect. No sports book refuses his action. He outed himself on national TV as a successful sports bettor...which, frankly, IMO....was stupid. He could have just said he was a house husband. The only stories I've heard out here about him from the books are "he wins some and loses some". As I said, if he was that good...they wouldn't take his action.
Mission runs a pick 5 right here. You are welcome to join next year.
Quote: unJonMission runs a pick 5 right here. You are welcome to join next year.
Awesome. I will. I’ll check it out.
Last year, we had 1 guy hitting on all cylinders. Season win rate 61%. Just unreal.
He left the forum....so we didn't get a chance to see a repeat.
Whoa...checked it out. Lotta rules to read.
Is there a running count how each picker is doing? I didn't see that.
My set up was simple. 5 picks based on point spread. That's it. Each week picks are collated and added up to see the leader board.
Moreover, they might have little advantage.
Anyway, Im just offering some knowledge in the spirit of the forum. I'm no Billy Walters or Jeopardy James, but I know the subject. Just trying to make sure the info is correct.
The Right Angle sports thing is public record. Just Google it, I guess. They sold their picks for very high prices. It was hard to get bets down because the lines would move in seconds. In the extremely rare event that someone sells winning picks, that's what should happen. If that isn't happening, you should be highly skeptical.
Again, just read the power Ball thread on this very forum. It looks to me like winning bets are being posted Or read the wizards article about parlay cards. Or listen to captain Jack's appearances on GWAE. You can also read through groovinmahoovins old tweets if they're still up. Each of those are examples of winning players sharing info.
It's obvious you haven't really researched the topic even though you're interested in it, so there is a starting point for you or anyone else who is interested.
Quote: es330tdSport: NBA
Game: Charlotte @ Chicago 12/13/19
Pick: Bulls-255
Wager: 7.37
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-281 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -281 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
| 11/23/2019 | NBA | Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19 | Raptors-297 | 33 | $1.14 | $41.68 | -297 | Win | $0.38 | $5.11 | $38.65 | 2.950% | $39.03 |
| 11/27/2019 | NBA | LA @ New Orleans | Lakers-258 | 34 | $0.98 | $42.66 | -258 | Win | $0.37 | $5.48 | $39.03 | 2.511% | $39.40 |
| 11/29/2019 | NBA | Utah & Memphis | Utah-290 | 35 | $1.16 | $43.82 | -290 | Win | $0.40 | $5.88 | $39.40 | 2.944% | $39.80 |
| 12/1/2019 | NBA | Dallas @ LA 12/1/19 | Lakers-265 | 36 | $1.06 | $44.88 | -265 | Loss | ($1.06) | $4.82 | $39.80 | 2.663% | $38.74 |
| 12/5/2019 | NBA | Philadelphia @ Washington | 76ers-295 | 37 | $2.87 | $47.75 | -295 | Loss | ($2.87) | $1.95 | $38.74 | 7.408% | $35.87 |
| 12/11/2019 | NBA | Memphis @ Phoenix 12/11/19 | Suns-299 | 38 | $6.49 | $54.24 | -299 | Loss | ($6.49) | ($4.54) | $35.87 | 18.093% | $29.38 |
| 12/12/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Denver | Nuggets-253 | 39 | $9.14 | $63.38 | -253 | Win | $3.61 | ($0.93) | $29.38 | 31.110% | $32.99 |
| 12/13/2019 | NBA | Charlotte @ Chicago | Bulls-255 | 40 | $7.37 | $70.75 | -255 | Loss | ($7.37) | ($8.30) | $32.99 | 22.340% | $25.62 |
a lose streak is not the only 'chase system' killer
red columns are total after lost bets
Quote: RigondeauxI'm not trying to prove or sell anything. I don't see why any winning player would want to play a contest like that. It's just more work.
Moreover, they might have little advantage.
Anyway, Im just offering some knowledge in the spirit of the forum. I'm no Billy Walters or Jeopardy James, but I know the subject. Just trying to make sure the info is correct.
The Right Angle sports thing is public record. Just Google it, I guess. They sold their picks for very high prices. It was hard to get bets down because the lines would move in seconds. In the extremely rare event that someone sells winning picks, that's what should happen. If that isn't happening, you should be highly skeptical.
Again, just read the power Ball thread on this very forum. It looks to me like winning bets are being posted Or read the wizards article about parlay cards. Or listen to captain Jack's appearances on GWAE. You can also read through groovinmahoovins old tweets if they're still up. Each of those are examples of winning players sharing info.
It's obvious you haven't really researched the topic even though you're interested in it, so there is a starting point for you or anyone else who is interested.
I’m only interested is hearing someone’s picks PRIOR to game....and I track results for a season. Beyond that, I don’t have much interest in handicappers who sell themselves.
I noticed a tweet on right angle where someone gave them credit for not hiding a 0-6 week. That raises red flags because it means they could hide it.
If someone ran an independent and verifiable check on picks and determined they were picking at a 58% clip....great. If it can’t be independently verified....I don’t trust it.
Anytime I’ve asked a handicapper to throw out some picks for a NFL contest...crickets. Everytime.
A lot of these services picks are across multi sports...and by luck, one of the seasons ends up on the profit side of picking. Then they offer that for next season with requisite chest thumps.
IMHO, a successful handicapper picks for himself only.
Quote: TDVegasNo winning
The entire James Holzhauer claim is also a bit suspect. No sports book refuses his action. He outed himself on national TV as a successful sports bettor...which, frankly, IMO....was stupid. He could have just said he was a house husband. The only stories I've heard out here about him from the books are "he wins some and loses some". As I said, if he was that good...they wouldn't take his action. They all do.
Some will some won't. In a lot of cases it depends on how you win.
Did James ever say all books take his action? I'd like to read an interview about his gambling, if he has given one.
There is often skepticism about famous bettors .some say Walters was just laundering money. Some say haralabos voulgaris was just a bookie, though I guess I the Dallas Mavericks don't agree.
James is obviously a mega genius in certain capacities, which allowed him to obliterate Jeopardy. These overlap a lot with gambling and I'd bet he is or was very good at it.
Why go on the show? Millions of dollars. Fame. Women. Fun. The challenge. If he lost in one or 2 eps it would be really unlikely to affect his action.
Unless he really enjoys betting for some weird reason, I doubt he bothers anymore.
That's exactly why I never give out any of my picks. 🤣Quote: TDVegas
IMHO, a successful handicapper picks for himself only.
Quote: RigondeauxSome will some won't. In a lot of cases it depends on how you win.
Did James ever say all books take his action? I'd like to read an interview about his gambling, if he has given one.
There is often skepticism about famous bettors .some say Walters was just laundering money. Some say haralabos voulgaris was just a bookie, though I guess I the Dallas Mavericks don't agree.
James is obviously a mega genius in certain capacities, which allowed him to obliterate Jeopardy. These overlap a lot with gambling and I'd bet he is or was very good at it.
Why go on the show? Millions of dollars. Fame. Women. Fun. The challenge. If he lost in one or 2 eps it would be really unlikely to affect his action.
Unless he really enjoys betting for some weird reason, I doubt he bothers anymore.
I didn't question why he went on Jeopardy. He's a genius player and it was a great decision to try and qualify. I only questioned why he admitted to being a professional sports bettor. Honestly...it's not something to readily admit to the sports betting world. As I see it, it's akin to a blackjack card counter announcing on national TV that he's a card counter. Doesn't make sense.
I'd love to know if his tax return lists him as a professional gambler/sports bettor. One of his go to methods is middling the spreads at different books. I don't consider this handicapping. Any knucklehead can do that.
I would be curious to know exactly how much he makes sports betting...year over year.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's exactly why I never give out any of my picks. 🤣
Neither would I. There's no upside. If you are good...that's all that matters. Cash will roll in.
meaninglessQuote: TDVegasI'd love to know if his tax return lists him as a professional gambler/sports bettor.
agree, nothing new here.Quote: TDVegasOne of his go to methods is middling the spreads at different books.
also, NFL half time lines are always to the heavy favorite and has been for years. that is nothing new.
none of your business to know as you seem to be one impressed by one just winning anything.Quote: TDVegasI would be curious to know exactly how much he makes sports betting...year over year.
nothing new here
stop trying to hijack this thread
successful sports bettors are those that make more +ev bets than the public does.
OP fails to get that.
Quote: 7crapsmeaningless
agree, nothing new here.
also, NFL half time lines are always to the heavy favorite and has been for years. that is nothing new.
none of your business to know as you seem to be one impressed by one just winning anything.
nothing new here
stop trying to hijack this thread
successful sports bettors are those that make more +ev bets than the public does.
OP fails to get that.
We are having a discussion on sports wagering. If the OP objects to the content being discussed....let him say so and I will exit the thread. If the mod objects, I'll excuse. No one is "hijacking" anything. If OP says refrain, since it's his thread starter and he has politely responded to my responses...I'll assume he's fine with the discussion.
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +3.61
Running Balance: -.95
Balance: 32.99
Sport: NBA
Game: Charlotte @ Chicago 12/13/19
Pick: Bulls-255
Wager: 7.37
Ok...getting up to speed. Your balance was $32.99. You lost $7.37 today. Current balance is $25.62.
I assume you will not replenish if by chance it goes to $0? A bust out, if you will.
It looks like your system, in a general sense, is to chase losses with larger bets. A negative progression. I can only assume this will eventually implode....but....good luck.
The 9-18 Bulls at home were -255 against the 12-16 Hornets?? Wow.
To be honest, in his particular situation I think it was an excellent idea for him to mention that he was a professional sports bettor.Quote: TDVegas
Quote: TDVegasI didn't question why he went on Jeopardy. He's a genius player and it was a great decision to try and qualify. I only questioned why he admitted to being a professional sports bettor. Honestly...it's not something to readily admit to the sports betting world. As I see it, it's akin to a blackjack card counter announcing on national TV that he's a card counter. Doesn't make sense.
I'd love to know if his tax return lists him as a professional gambler/sports bettor. One of his go to methods is middling the spreads at different books. I don't consider this handicapping. Any knucklehead can do that.
I would be curious to know exactly how much he makes sports betting...year over year.
So what criteria would you use for middling and how would you go about it, since it's so easy? Do you do it now?
It's not handicapping, though it can occur with handicapping. Doesn't matter anyway. You win money at sports by making +ev bets. You don't win any more or less for this technique or that. Though some might allow you to bet more.
"Admitting" you are a winning player isn't like BJ. First off, the online books and apps already have your name and can see all the bet you make an how much you win. If you are using trickeration to get around that, they won't know who is doing it. Or if they do, it won't be because you were on Jeopardy.
If you bet at the counter it's also different than BJ.
I doubt the books are like, sitting around watching Jeopardy and if someone says that they are a winning sports bettor they start scrambling to prevent them from betting. Maybe by the time he was a famous millionaire it hurt him, but who cares then? Maybe it would help him. Free publicity for the books when he comes in. Let the squares think they can win too.
IDK, it could have been slightly -ev for him to tell the truth but maybe axel is right. Either way, I don't think it's evidence he was lying. The fact that he brutally crushed Jeopardy week after week is obviously far more compelling evidence that he was telling the truth.
It's always amazing to me that someone can be interested in a topic, have loud opinions about it, and steadfastly refuse to research or learn anything about it. Especially when the internet exists.
Running Balance: -8.3
Balance: 25.62
Sport: NBA
Game: Oklahoma City @ Denver 11/14/19
Pick: Nuggets-295
Wager: 10.77
Quote: es330tdLast Result: -7.37
Running Balance: -8.3
Balance: 25.62
Sport: NBA
Game: Oklahoma City @ Denver 11/14/19
Pick: Nuggets-295
Wager: 10.77
Risking 40% of bankroll on 1 wager?
Getting dicey. Good luck.
Quote: TDVegasRisking 40% of bankroll on 1 wager?
Looks like it paid off
That’ll piss off a few here!Quote: IndyJeffreyLooks like it paid off
Quote: TDVegasRisking 40% of bankroll on 1 wager?
Getting dicey. Good luck.
Shouldn't one account be considered a 'budget', not a 'bankroll'?
no one here really cares.Quote: DeMangoThat’ll piss off a few here!
results only rewarded
a beginning stake of $33.92
or 333.92 or 3333.92
a total after 41 (-ev) wagers
rounded: (4.08)
or (40.80) or (408.00)
(negative value)
total wagered: $81.52 (37.70 last 6 bets)
edge: -0.050049068
max: 0.141369048
min: -0.117314488
Quote: TDVegasI'd love to know if his tax return lists him as a professional gambler/sports bettor. One of his go to methods is middling the spreads at different books. I don't consider this handicapping. Any knucklehead can do that.
This requires quite a bit deeper explanation. For most of us, it's not easy, or we would already be doing it as professionals. The way I understand it:
-Find multiple places that give you a shot at a middle
-Identify that the chance of hitting the middle exceeds to commission (usually 5%)
-Be able to bet enough so that it is actually worth it. With typical limits on a college basketball first half total, betting both sides with a 1.5-point difference is worth about $40 on max bets. Last week I did see I could bet a 46.5 and a 47.5 on an NFL total. Trying for a middle on that at max bets would mean a +90% chance of losing $1,000. If someone is going to earn a professional level income doing that, I'm going to give them all the credit for their work. I'm sure there were times with neteller when it could be a lot easier. And maybe there still are opportunities like that. But I would think anyone who is finding the most valuable middles and moving around $100,000 every day to earn enough to make it worth it is one of the sharper bettors.
It might be one small piece of what some guys do. Anyone who does it as a 'go to method' is either earning very little at it, or is putting in significant effort, risk, and intelligence to make. I don't like it. I would much rather just bet whichever side had more value and let it ride.
Quote: TomGShouldn't one account be considered a 'budget', not a 'bankroll'?
Sure. I used bankroll as a generic term.
Quote: TomGThis requires quite a bit deeper explanation. For most of us, it's not easy, or we would already be doing it as professionals. The way I understand it:
-Find multiple places that give you a shot at a middle
-Identify that the chance of hitting the middle exceeds to commission (usually 5%)
-Be able to bet enough so that it is actually worth it. With typical limits on a college basketball first half total, betting both sides with a 1.5-point difference is worth about $40 on max bets. Last week I did see I could bet a 46.5 and a 47.5 on an NFL total. Trying for a middle on that at max bets would mean a +90% chance of losing $1,000. If someone is going to earn a professional level income doing that, I'm going to give them all the credit for their work. I'm sure there were times with neteller when it could be a lot easier. And maybe there still are opportunities like that. But I would think anyone who is finding the most valuable middles and moving around $100,000 every day to earn enough to make it worth it is one of the sharper bettors.
It might be one small piece of what some guys do. Anyone who does it as a 'go to method' is either earning very little at it, or is putting in significant effort, risk, and intelligence to make. I don't like it. I would much rather just bet whichever side had more value and let it ride.
Middling is one of his techniques. I don’t consider this really handicapping....but whatever.
His main play, according to what I’ve heard is that he likes in game wagering. As these odds are made on the fly....he looks for possible errors.
I would have more confidence that he’s trying to exploit this for gains rather than middling.
He does use a betting app....but I’m not sure if in game wagers are posted as quickly as they would be in the sports book. Whatever decision he makes....he has very little time to make it. It’s not my realm, but what math is he crunching on in game wagering to make an advantage bet?
It sounds more like “hunch” wagering.
He also likes NFL favorites. Prior to season, he wants a Super Bowl bet that focuses on teams he thinks will get a first round playoff bye.
Quote: es330tdReal money. I am using a site that allows wagers in amounts as low as $0.01.
I used to "pinch pennies", as one example of this, i mean betting $0.01 on games that were $1.50 (and by doing this receiving odds that were the equivalent of $2.00, due to rounding).
If the site you are betting at rounds up, you could do something similar, since you are already betting "fairly small, to prove the concept".
Note: Doing this, combined with having 5,000 to 10,000 bets per game, was a reason my account was closed.
Note 2: If you do try this out and manage to get the extra cent per bet, I would still post your results based on the "total money down and odds offered" rather than the "real amount returned".
Note 3: One reason I suggested doing this is that I am sure I read somewhere on this thread that you 'can't deposit any money to this account', right ? (so, a good reason to want a "real money boost on winners", if they do round up)
I don't know if this (or something similar) has already been discussed, because I got to about page 20, and stopped reading anymore posts.
Good Luck
3+ months into it I don’t know how many picks....he’s bleeding. Granted, he was ahead some until the shit hit the fan. That usually happens with a negative progression type plan.
This isn’t a big surprise. Keep tracking, but I also think you have to be real about this. The purpose is to make money....not tread up a little and tread down a little. Time is money.
If it’s a hobby....so be it. I guess it really doesn’t matter what happens then. It’s fun. Doing 1 million trials tells me this wasn’t done just for fun, though.
