MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 5th, 2019 at 4:49:17 PM permalink
Okay, I got the Pass/Don't Pass to return the proper ~-1.4%. But now I'm trying to run a single Don't Come per round (no Pass, no Don't Pass, no Odds), and I'm getting ~-0.7% over a million spins. This should be dead simple but I can't find the logic error.

Jordan1, since you were the one who requested a test of your system, and since I'm trying to work on it for you, I'd like to ask you to go through the play-by-play on my [url redactedl] page to try to find the error. Update: I'm writing a sim from scratch that does Don't Come only to keep it simple and make sure I've coded it correctly. Will post results.
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Sep 6, 2019
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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7craps
September 5th, 2019 at 5:25:37 PM permalink
I notice one error: when your first roll on a DC bet is a 7, it should be a loss (and you are counting 11s as a loss, and 2s and 3s as a win, correctly), but you are counting them as wins.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
Joined: Sep 1, 2019
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September 5th, 2019 at 7:59:14 PM permalink
Thank you for trying to help. It seems you are rewarding 2's and 3's and punishing 7's and 11's, which is normal during a Don't session. I am playing only to have the 12 hurt me on any don't pass or don't come roll. Even if it comes, I am out only $5. That should only happen once in 36 rolls (average). With large odds bets, and the ability to take them down when I lose one is what my "system" has going for it.

I will try to clarify how I like to play.

COME OUT ROLL (1)
Place $5 on the pass line and $5 on don't pass line.
Say a 10 rolls...

Lay huge odds behind/against the 10 ($300)

NEXT ROLL (2)
Place a $5 chip in the come and a $5 chip on the don't come.
Say an 8 rolls...

Lay huge odds behind/against the 8 ($102)

NEXT ROLL (3)

Place a $5 chip in the come and a $5 chip in the don't come.
Say a 4 rolls...

Lay huge odds behind/against the 4 ($300)

Now wait...
If a 7 rolls you win your laying odds bets. (Congratulations)

If at any time a 4 or 10 or 8 shows. Take the other two bets down (the laying odds) not the $5 don't that was used to establish the don't number, and wait for another shooter to throw dice. (Hard to do if you the only one at the table.)

Now, If you have only established one don't number (the first 10 for example) and a 7 rolls you win!

Or,
If the 10 is rolled (you lose. boo), at that point you just wait until that shooter Sevens out before you make any bets again.

Same goes for getting two number set. If one of the two is knocked down take the other odds down and wait for the next shooter.

After all said and done you only lose $5 every time a 12 is rolled, but you are not getting hammered by a potential 7,7,11,7,11 or something similar on don't pass and don't come bets. Yes, a large bankroll is needed. That is another problem for most. This just does not work that well when you only lay double or triple odds. You . play like this on any of the sit-down computer gambling games in a casino either, it has to be done at a table. And, worse yet, most casinos (in Vegas) don't let you lay over 5 times odds. I think I see why due to no house advantage on an odds bet.
For me, its fun, and sometimes rewarding. I have a lot of "Draw" sessions with this due to my not wanting to have to come back from a massive failure. I don't chart tables, I don't watch and analyze any shooter, I don't hedge against any numbers, and I stay away from any proposition bets.
Thanks for any input.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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September 5th, 2019 at 8:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

I am playing only to have the 12 hurt me on any don't pass or don't come roll. Even if it comes, I am out only $5. That should only happen once in 36 rolls (average).

so, it appears you do not fear the come out roll 12.
over 1 billion rolls, just for the dpass, about 296,296,297 come out rolls.
1 in 36 on average you lose the $5
296,296,297/36=8,230,453 times $5 = $41,152,265 LOSS (it could be more or less)

now we won't even count the dcome bets that lose.

How do U plan on winning that much over what you would win to show a profit?
you have a special lucky charm you have not mentioned yet?

I doubt you know
as you see that $5 loss as insignificant. (in-sign-if-I-cant)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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September 6th, 2019 at 1:55:22 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

...Even if it comes, I am out only $5. That should only happen once in 36 rolls (average).

COME OUT ROLL (1)
Place $5 on the pass line and $5 on don't pass line.
Say a 10 rolls...

Lay huge odds behind/against the 10 ($300)



The DD is a bet the house can only win, and never lose. Which is why they allow it. You can’t win or lose the DP, so all the HE is on the PL. 1/36=2.77%

Sim it with odds on the DP and see what it will cost you, compared to betting the DP alone.

WinCraps sim 35,000 Zumma rolls:


Dooey-Don’t $10 DP/ $10 PL 5X odds. 10K Bankroll

High: 10,812
End: 8,855
Low: 4,740


$10 Dont Pass Only 5X odds 10K Bankroll

High: 11,075
End: 10,685
Low: 5,170

Old Thread Discussion
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 6th, 2019 at 2:41:55 PM permalink
Okay, I'm back to soliciting help (especially from Jordan1) in reviewing the play-by-play to try to find my error(s). I rewrote the whole thing from scratch, having it make only a Don't Come bet to make sure I got the Don't Come working correctly, but it's showing a player edge of ~6% instead of a house edge of ~1.4%. My eyes are glazing over. I'm not sure I've ever had this much trouble with a programming problem, this stuff is usually pretty easy.

Here's the page with the test. Thanks very much to all who looked at the old version, and to any willing to have a gander at the new one.
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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MichaelBluejay
September 6th, 2019 at 6:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Okay, I'm back to soliciting help (especially from Jordan1) in reviewing the play-by-play to try to find my error(s). I rewrote the whole thing from scratch, having it make only a Don't Come bet to make sure I got the Don't Come working correctly, but it's showing a player edge of ~6% instead of a house edge of ~1.4%. My eyes are glazing over. I'm not sure I've ever had this much trouble with a programming problem, this stuff is usually pretty easy.

Here's the page with the test. Thanks very much to all who looked at the old version, and to any willing to have a gander at the new one.


It looks like if you have an active DC on the come out, you are paying them on a 7, but not taking them down if the come out roll is one of the the active DC.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
September 6th, 2019 at 7:14:35 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

It looks like if you have an active DC on the come out, you are paying them on a 7, but not taking them down if the come out roll is one of the the active DC.


Miplet is right - search from the top for "active come points = 10"; the third match (Bankroll $4975) shows an active come point of 10 that does not lose when your come-out is also a 10, and in fact the DC on 10 wins when a 7 is then rolled.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 6th, 2019 at 7:35:13 PM permalink
Thanks, miplet and ThatDontGuy, you guys nailed it. Once I fixed that, the program returns the proper -1.4% over 5 million come-out rolls.

Next step is to code in Jordan1's system, but I have some other projects that are pressing. I'll get to it as soon as I can and post here about it.

In the meantime, Jordan1, the house edge doesn't change just because you hedge your bets or place them at different times. Over the long run, the loss on your system will be:

Total Pass / Don't / Come / Don't Wagers X 1.4%

My simulator will show that's actually true for *all* betting systems (at least those based on 1.4%-edge bets), once I get the systems plugged in.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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September 7th, 2019 at 7:46:49 AM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Thanks, miplet and ThatDontGuy, you guys nailed it. Once I fixed that, the program returns the proper -1.4% over 5 million come-out rolls.

very common coding mistake I make and have seen others make too.

I was looking at your 2nd version (the 3rd one-quickly) and I think that works well, with the corrections.

Come bets and DCome bets are 'down' after they win.
basic craps rules that many do not know about because they know the 'place bet rules' (a win and they are still up to win again' and just think Come/DCome bets are the same, having never made the bets themselves.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

My simulator will show that's actually true for *all* betting systems (at least those based on 1.4%-edge bets), once I get the systems plugged in.

now that sounds cool
Thanks!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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