OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:26:13 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Again, I know this is just a system like any of them, and I know they are all flawed. I was just wondering how flawed mine was? I have gotten some pretty nice results, but it takes a nasty large bankroll to do this type of gambling.


https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370
Risk a huge bankroll to win a little profit.
Massive probability of small success. Small probability of massive failure
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:27:44 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

A "hot shooter" is never going to get me because I stop as soon as he either makes the point or knocks down one of my Don't come odds numbers. I am looking for a cold table.




you're assuming that a hot shooter will necessarily stay hot and that a cold table will necessarily stay cold

neither of those assumption are accurate

a hot table may stay hot or it may cool off - a cold table may stay cold or it may heat up

if you think you can't get 7 in a row of your lay bets knocked down because you are jumping around to different tables you are mistaken

if it were only that easy to win

but anyway, good luck and have fun with your system
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 2:16:48 PM permalink
I said I had parameters, and I know all parameters are jokes, but I want to know the results if I did not use them. Using my don't system, what would happen if I stayed at one table for a billion rolls? That is my question. If, "taking down all my bets if a shooter knocks one down" is too much of a parameter, then what are my results if I never, ever, in a billion rolls take any bets down. Does that change the math at all? I am still going to try establish at the most 3 don't (laying large odds) numbers. Really, I am just curious on the math side of things...
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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September 1st, 2019 at 2:23:14 PM permalink
"Risk a huge bankroll to win a little profit
Massive probability of small success. Small probability of massive failure."

The very definition of Martingdale.

I will confess to doing it once in a long while and have never been burned, but that's nothing to be proud of. I'm prouder of how well I've done at the slots over the years.
The best things in life are not free.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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September 1st, 2019 at 3:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Try to get three numbers established. If at any time one of your don't come/don't pass numbers get knocked down, take the other lay odds down and wait for the next shooter.


Am I missing something here?
How can you ever have more than one number in play at a time? Either the shooter sevens out, in which case your odds bet is paid off, or the shooter makes his point, in which case your odds bet loses.

Assuming there's only one number in play at a time, I ran 20 million sessions where you play until you either win 1000 or lose 1000; you end up with a profit 50.3% of the time, but your average loss is more than your average win to the point where your average session is a loss of about 10.

On the other hand, if you play until you win or lose 5000, you end up with a profit only 48% of the time, and your average session loss is 225.

In the end, your average loss will be 5/36 x the average number of comeouts in your session - and the longer you play, the more of those there will be.
7craps
7craps
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September 1st, 2019 at 3:22:22 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Try to get three numbers established.

3 numbers with Lay odds.
How exactly do you do this?
after the point is set, do you make a $5 come and dcome bet?
If yes and the next roll is a 12
do you make another $5 come bet to match the dcome bet trying to get to 3 don't bets with lay odds?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 4:41:34 PM permalink
I am sorry I wasn't clear. Once a don't pass number is set, I lay the don't pass number odds, then I go through the don't come to try to get another two numbers. Once I manage to have three, I sit it out and wait until one gets knocked down or a seven rolls, which I would win all three odds bets. Of course, if the don't pass number is set and while I am trying to set the first Don't come and a seven arises, I win the don't pass. If the don't pass is set, and another number is set, and while a seven appears while I am trying to set a third, then I am happy because I have won again (one don't pass, one don't come). The SEVEN is ALWAYS my buddy which is the most common number to roll. But, at any time while I have the first don't pass or any other number set, and I get one knocked down, that is the end. I patiently wait for another roller to throw. My question is, if I sat there for a billion rolls, would I be close to breaking the 50/50 rule, solely because of the larger odds bets that I am making and I am establishing multiple don't numbers for one shooter. I know for sure, smaller lay odds, (2x/3x/5x) does not seem to work as well due to being closer to the .8 or .6 percent numbers. This works sorta on a craps table simulation that the Wizard of Odds provides. I ran $6000 to $20000 pretty quickly, but had a $10000 negative after getting to the $26000 mark. Things just settled after that. This was after about 3000 rolls or so. If there was one session where a billion were completed, where would I stand? Lets call my bank roll $100,000 if one has to be established. Would I be broke, about even, or possibly a bit higher?

Again, here is what it looks like

First step - $5 Pass/$5 Don't pass
2nd step - establish a number - lay the odd amounts that I had mentioned earlier.
3rd step - go through the Don't Come by placing a $5 chip on the Come and the Don't come.

At this point if a seven is rolls, I win the don't pass, and start over.
or
if the point come up. Stop. Wait for the next shooter.

4th step - If another number is established through the Don't come lay odds against it.
5th step - Try to set another (3rd) don't number, lay odds against it.
6th step - Wait. You have three don'ts.

At any point if a number you have established gets knocked down. Stop. Tell the dealer to take down your other lay odds. (At worst, you will only lose one don't number per shooter.) Sit on your money and wait for next shooter. He might be rolling for 30 minutes, but don't make a single bet until he is done.

Or after 1 or 2 or 3 don'ts get set and a seven happens, be happy, and rake in your chips.

Wash rinse repeat...what happens when you gamble this way for a billion rolls?

I got this idea from a woman playing craps many years ago. I modified and tweaked it a bit, but again I think it only works well with large lay odds, which most people can't do.

Thanks for any and all the information.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 4:42:33 PM permalink
Yes, I am trying to get the other numbers through the don't come...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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September 1st, 2019 at 4:54:48 PM permalink
A lot depends on your luck with the shooters. Take it day by day or week by week. Try to build up your bankroll to a few thousand units.
Tanko
Tanko
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September 2nd, 2019 at 3:16:01 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Wait for a shooter to seven out and then make a pass line bet and a don't pass line bet of 5 dollars.

...Try to get three numbers established. If at any time one of your don't come/don't pass numbers get knocked down, take the other lay odds down and wait for the next shooter.



Your first mistake is starting with two bets that combine for a HE of 1/36= 2.77%.

Your next mistake is taking down remaining odds after a loss.

With the 4,5, and 6 working, there are twice as many losing dice combinations as winning ones.

Lose any one of those bets, and take down the odds on the remaining bets, as you do, and you are guaranteed to lose the hand.

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